Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A grinch in paradise: Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Evan slams Fiji
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:17 PM GMT on December 17, 2012 +36
Mighty Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Evan walloped Fiji with sustained winds of 135 mph, torrential rains, and a dangerous storm surge on Sunday. Evan intensified markedly from a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds to a Category 4 with 135 mph winds as it approached Fiji, and Evan's southern eyewall--the most intense part of the storm--brought hurricane conditions to a long stretch of the north and west coasts of Fiji's main island, Viti Levu. Preliminary media reports indicate that damage is very heavy on Fiji, but no lives have been lost. According to a database maintained by NOAA's Coastal Service Center, Evan is the strongest tropical cyclone on record to affect Fiji's main island, with records going back to 1941. The tourist town of Nadi on the northwest coast experienced sustained winds of 69 mph, gusting to 104 mph during Evan's passage, but did not experience the calm of the eye. Several smaller islands with popular surf resorts just offshore from Nadi did experience a direct hit, and damage is undoubtedly very severe on those islands. Evan is now over colder waters with higher wind shear, and satellite loops show a deterioration of the cloud pattern. Evan is expected to weaken below hurricane strength and transition to an extratropical storm before reaching New Zealand on Thursday. The most devastating cyclone to affect Fiji in recent decades was Category 2 Cyclone Kina, which killed 23 people and did $100 million in damage in January 1993. The only deadlier storm was Category 3 Cyclone Eric of 1985, which made a direct hit on the capital of Suva and killed 25.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Fiji weather service showing the large eye of Tropical Cyclone Evan just north of Fiji at 2:50 pm local time (02:50 UTC) on Monday, December 17, 2012. At the time, the city of Nadi was in the southern eyewall of Evan, and recorded sustained winds of 52 mph, gusting to 104 mph. Sustained winds at Nadi increased to 69 mph three hours later.


Figure 2. Tracks of all Category 1 and stronger tropical cyclones to pass within 100 miles of Fiji's main island of Viti Levu since 1941. Evan is the strongest cyclone on record to pass so close to the main island of Fiji. Image credit: NOAA's Coastal Service Center.

Severe damage in Samoa from Evan
Evan made landfall on the north shore of Samoa near the capital of Apia on Thursday as a Category 1 cyclone with 90 mph winds, and intensified into a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds after the eye wandered back offshore late Thursday. Media reports indicate that Evan killed four and has left eight missing on Samoa, with 4,000 homeless. The main power plant for Samoa was destroyed, and it is expected that power will be out to almost all of Samoa for at least ten more days. Evan was one of Samoa's most destructive tropical cyclones on record, as discussed by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. After devastating Samoa, Evan smashed through the French territorial islands of Wallis and Futuna, causing major damage but no deaths or injuries.


Figure 3. Residents affected by Typhoon Bopha crowd as relief goods are distributed at New Bataan township, Compostela Valley, in the southern Philippines, Sunday Dec. 9, 2012. (AP Photo/Bullit Marquez)

Death toll from Super Typhoon Bopha rises above 1,000
In the Philippines, officials are still tallying the dead from deadly Super Typhoon Bopha, locally known as Pablo, which made landfall three times as it passed through northern Mindanao, central Visayas, and Palawan on December 4. The typhoon is now being blamed for at least 1020 deaths, making it the deadliest storm on the planet during 2012. At least 844 people are still missing and presumed dead. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Hurricane
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401. Chapelhill 2:09 PM GMT on December 18, 2012    
Quoting WunderBlogAdmin:
Hey everyone, we can understand the desire to discuss what happened in Newtown but this blog isn't the place. We let it go for a while but now the discussion belongs in another blog. Let's try to stay on topic here. Thanks.


...just incase you missed this post earlier.
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 297
402. Chapelhill 2:12 PM GMT on December 18, 2012    
The Storm of the Century, also known as the '93 Superstorm, or the (Great) Blizzard of 1993

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403. WunderGirl12 2:21 PM GMT on December 18, 2012    
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Link


Thanks for the link!

WunderGirl12
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404. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 2:24 PM GMT on December 18, 2012    
well best stay on topic toay i reckon
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40636
405. HadesGodWyvern 2:24 PM GMT on December 18, 2012    
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY THREE (04F)
0:00 AM FST December 19 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (963 hPa) located at 21.6S 177.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
15 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
160 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle
100 NM from the center elsewhere

Deep convection persistent over low level circulation center in past 12 hours. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the south and restricted elsewhere. EVAN lies in a high sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center with LG surround giving DT=4.5, MET=4.0, PT=4.5. Final Dvorak T number based on MET. CI held up by 0.5 of FT as cyclone weakens.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 22.7S 177.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 23.9S 177.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 26.6S 177.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36688
406. washingtonian115 2:37 PM GMT on December 18, 2012    
The blog is dead.So it appears that when the cold air does FINALLY arrive we will be in a dry pattern.What type of stuff is this?!.This weather pattern is g__.
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407. OrchidGrower 2:49 PM GMT on December 18, 2012    
Re:#406, I was wondering same, Wash ... I figured we'd be dry if we had another warm winter, but now that the cold is coming it seems to me it should be packing more precip. Wonder if the reduced ground-level moisture dries out the atmosphere in winter the same as it does in summer....
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408. washingtonian115 2:56 PM GMT on December 18, 2012    
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re:#406, I was wondering same, Wash ... I figured we'd be dry if we had another warm winter, but now that the cold is coming it seems to me it should be packing more precip. Wonder if the reduced ground-level moisture dries out the atmosphere in winter the same as it does in summer....
I'm not to sure.Last fall it was very rainy and the following winter it wasn't.Which led to our drought here.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10665
409. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 2:57 PM GMT on December 18, 2012    
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
410. hydrus 4:16 PM GMT on December 18, 2012    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well best stay on topic toay i reckon
Yeah Keep..you topic changer yoo..:)
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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