Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Evan bearing down on Fiji

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:19 PM GMT on December 16, 2012

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Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Evan is closing in on the main island of Fiji, where hurricane warnings are flying and torrential rains are already falling. Radar images from Fiji show that the large eye of Evan is just north of the two main islands of Fiji. The expected southwesterly track of the storm should keep the calm of the eye just north of Fiji, though the southern eyewall may brush the north coast of the main island of Vici Leva, affecting the tourist town of Nadi. Evan has intensified today to its strongest level yet, with 120 mph winds, and satellite loops show that the storm remains well-organized, with plenty of intense heavy thunderstorm activity and a prominent eye. Evan will be in a region with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots as it approaches Fiji, and could intensify by another 5 - 10 mph before making its closest pass to the islands later today. According to NOAA's Coastal Services Center, Evan is the strongest tropical cyclone to threaten Fiji since Tropical Cyclone Daman of December 2007. Dating back to 1972, twelve Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclones have threatened the Republic of Fiji.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Fiji weather service showing the large eye of Tropical Cyclone Evan just north of Fiji.

Severe damage in Samoa from Evan
Evan made landfall on the north shore of Samoa near the capital of Apia on Thursday as a Category 1 cyclone with 90 mph winds, and intensified into a Category 3 storm with 115 mph after the eye wandered back offshore late Thursday. Media reports indicate that Evan killed four and has left eight missing on Samoa, and left at least 4,000 homeless. The main power plant for Samoa was destroyed, and it is expected that power will be out to almost all of Samoa for at least ten more days. Evan was one of Samoa's most destructive tropical cyclones on record, as discussed by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Evan nearing Fiji at 01:35 UTC December 16, 2012. At the time, Evan was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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I think Evan's the first Cat 4 storm I've ever seen that never fully cleared its eye out.

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93. Skyepony (Mod)
24hr MIMIC looks messed up to me.
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Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Jaevyn:
Evan just jumped from 120mph to 130mph, undergoing one last burst before landfall. The eye really is now becoming noticable on the visible radar. Low VWS, high SST's to great depth, I wouldn't be surprised if RI is going on just prior to landfall.
'

ouch...



I dont think those islands are going to weaken the cyclone if at all
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Evan just jumped from 120mph to 130mph, undergoing one last burst before landfall. The eye really is now becoming noticable on the visible radar. Low VWS, high SST's to great depth, I wouldn't be surprised if RI is going on just prior to landfall.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Still a few pixels of black on rb0 with the eye looking a little more defined. Hopefully people in Fiji were/are prepared for Evan.


i'll go more with were prepared
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Still a few pixels of black on rb0 with the eye looking a little more defined. Hopefully people in Fiji were/are prepared for Evan.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Evan's eye is clearing out. Landfall is imminent as well.



this cyclone reminds me of Ernesto...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting indianrivguy:
Both of you are pretty good for 15.. or any age.


how bout ya?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Evan's eye is clearing out. Landfall is imminent as well.

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Both of you are pretty good for 15.. or any age.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2639
Quoting wxchaser97:

Future meteorologist / firefighter.


me also future met, language teacher and artist.. cool for you
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


and you know so much about weather

Future meteorologist / firefighter.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting wxchaser97:

-_-

We are still both 15.


and you know so much about weather
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Correction: I am month older than you.

-_-

We are still both 15.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
It has been just too warm this year. I don't like it like this.

2012 May Be Detroit's Warmest Year

In news that may not come as a surprise to long-time residents of Southeast Michigan, the Detroit Area is on pace to be the warmest year in the historical record. The warmest year on the books, which date to 1874, is currently 1998. That year featured the so-called "Climate Event of the Century" when a very intense el Nino developed in the tropical Pacific which significantly altered Northern Hemisphere weather patterns. This year is different in that there does not appear to be such a strong link to any single phenomenon. The Flint Area, which has a historical climate record dating to 1921, is also on pace to have its warmest year in that period.

Average Temperature

Location


Jan 1 - Dec 14, 2012 (347 days)


Jan 1 - Dec 31, 1998 (365 days)

Detroit Area


55.1F


53.5F

Flint Area


52.9F


50.9F

See this year's past headlines (below) for more detail on some of the most significant episodes to take place during this prolonged period of warmth in addition to the local winter outlook:

In addition to last winter's mild temperatures, an extraordinarily warm March set numerous records and resulted in significant agricultrual losses.

Summer 2012 was also among Southeast Michigan's hottest, tying Summer 2005 as the hottest for the Detroit Area and spawning a severe drought that eventually expanded into Southeast Michigan.

What will Winter 2012-2013 bring? Despite the mild start to December, which is largely a result of significant cooling of the upper atmosphere over the Arctic during mid to late November, the pattern will soon return to a more seasonable one and is expected to bring about a fairly typical winter season overall. See the 2012-2013 Winter Outlook for more information.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Correction: I am month older than you.


lol.... he said about the same age... I guess a month is far from about the same then
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting wxchaser97:

Me and him are the same age and I still wonder why 20 is old.

Correction: I am month older than you.
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Carolina's...
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


thank you analyst , don't push it... in high school i was the oldest in many of my classes. all of my high school friends were 2 years younger than me. WTH???

Speaking of WTH?...

November:

"If November seemed unusually cold, you weren't alone. It was the third coldest November in Wilmington's history with temperatures averaging over 6 degrees below normal. Farther inland in Florence temperatures were still 3.4 degrees below normal." -- NWS Wilmington, NC



December:

"The first half of December has been very warm across the Eastern Carolinas. We've run 6 to nearly 10 degrees above normal this month, and have had no freezing temperatures at both Wilmington and Florence. Some cooler weather is expected Friday and Saturday behind a cold front." -- NWS Wilmington, NC

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I'll have something special for all of you tomorrow
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting wxchaser97:

Me and him are the same age ans I still wonder why 20 is old.


ohhh. Don't know then
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


he is like 13 or 15 years old... Saw him on wikipedia

Me and him are the same age and I still wonder why 20 is old.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting wxchaser97:

Since when is 20 old?


he is like 13 or 15 years old... Saw him on wikipedia
thanks
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You're getting old.

Since when is 20 old?
And happy early birthday tr!
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You're getting old.


thank you analyst , don't push it... in high school i was the oldest in many of my classes. all of my high school friends were 2 years younger than me. WTH???
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


true...Im 20 where Aussie lives

You're getting old.
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Quoting indianrivguy:
In the event that the good Lord is not willin' and the creeks rise,

Happy Birthday!... tomorrow!

Besides,, somewhere you are already 20!


true...Im 20 where Aussie lives
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
6:00 AM FST December 17 2012
===================================

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP (Fiji/Rotuma)

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE BUA PROVINCE, WESTERN PARTS OF VITI LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, THE REST OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA, VATULELE AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (945 hPa) located at 16.4S 178.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 13 knots. Position good based on radar imagery/multispectral enhanced infrared radar and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
60 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant

Eye becomingdiscernable in enhanced infrared radar. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 28C. Dvorak analysis based on eye patter with B eye in CMG surround.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 17.0S 177.5E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.2S 176.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.7S 176.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
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In the event that the good Lord is not willin' and the creeks rise,

Happy Birthday!... tomorrow!

Besides,, somewhere you are already 20!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2639
My birthday coming up...can't wait to finally turn 20 tomorrow
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
.
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Quoting indianrivguy:
You make some very nice weather maps tr, thank you.


sure...they're all for you guys...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No nevermind, I wasn't confused.

If the storm is moving southwestward and the strongest winds are in the left front quadrant in relation to the direction the storm is headed...doesn't that mean the strongest winds are in the southeast quadrant and not the southwest?


I read it a little fast myself. Technically, in the southern part of the storm. SE would split the quadrants of a storm moving SW.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No nevermind, I wasn't confused.

If the storm is moving southwestward and the strongest winds are in the left front quadrant in relation to the direction the storm is headed...doesn't that mean the strongest winds are in the southeast quadrant and not the southwest?


That's what I would think.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 697
No nevermind, I wasn't confused.

If the storm is moving southwestward and the strongest winds are in the left front quadrant in relation to the direction the storm is headed...doesn't that mean the strongest winds are in the southeast quadrant and not the southwest?
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Oh lol, that's what he said.

Nevermind. This direction thing confuses me.
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Quoting beell:


Correct. Left front quadrant with respect to forward motion in the southern hemisphere.

If Evan is moving southwest and the strongest winds are in the left front quadrant with respect to that forward motion...doesn't that make the southwest side the most intense?
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...THE MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161951Z - 162115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS...THOUGH THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN.

DISCUSSION...RADAR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING NEAR VCT AT THE INTERSECTION OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION...AND A MORE NNE-SSW ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S AND NEAR
70...RESPECTIVELY...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 1500
J/KG. DEEP-LAYER WSWLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND THE MORE INTENSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER ALONG THE
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SUCH THAT A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS IN QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH A SMALL WATCH COULD BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE TX COAST.

..THOMPSON/CORFIDI.. 12/16/2012
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You make some very nice weather maps tr, thank you.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2639
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah it does look weird, the structure looks a bit different as well.

Turn your monitor round and put a mirror in front of the screen,then look over the top of your monitor.
Just a thought for the northern hemispherians.
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Quoting indianrivguy:
They just don't look right spinning backwards.. :)



Yeah it does look weird, the structure looks a bit different as well.
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WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
_________________________

Northern New England snowstorm



click for bigger pic
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Powers down in parts of Fiji now.

Heres a line form a report:-

"Close to its centre the cyclone is expected to have average winds up to 185 kmh with momentary gusts to 270 kmh, and forecasters warn the destructive winds may begin several hours before the cyclone centre passes overhead or nearby."

Link, TV New Zealand I think:-

http://tvnz.co.nz/world-news/power-no-water-cyclo ne-evan-hits-fiji-5295639
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Not good, it looks like Evan is turning slightly right, and that it will make landfall on the western half of Fiji. Extremely intense convection with Evan. I'm not sure where the worse quadrant is though in a clock-wise circulation cyclone in the south pacific. But I would imagine it would be on the southwest side instead of northeast, but I don't know that for sure.


I'm pretty sure it would be the Southeast quadrant as everything South of the Equator is mirrored.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 697
Quoting Jedkins01:
Not good, it looks like Evan is turning slightly right, and that it will make landfall on the western half of Fiji. Extremely intense convection with Evan. I'm not sure where the worse quadrant is though in a clock-wise circulation cyclone in the south pacific. But I would imagine it would be on the southwest side instead of northeast, but I don't know that for sure.


Correct. Left front quadrant with respect to forward motion in the southern hemisphere.
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Quoting Civicane49:
The eye is just off the northwestern coast of the northern island of Fiji on radar:




The Fiji radar imagery is obviously very primitive, so its hard to get a good grip on the storm satellite is much better in this case.
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They just don't look right spinning backwards.. :)
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2639
Not good, it looks like Evan is turning slightly right, and that it will make landfall on the western half of Fiji. Extremely intense convection with Evan. I'm not sure where the worse quadrant is though in a clock-wise circulation cyclone in the south pacific. But I would imagine it would be on the southwest side instead of northeast, but I don't know that for sure.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
MSZ051-055>058-062>066-072-073-162010-
SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-NEWTON MS-MARION MS-LINCOLN MS-LAWRENCE MS-
LAMAR MS-JONES MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-JASPER MS-COVINGTON MS-CLARKE MS-
111 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
111 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 30 TO 40 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF TURNERVILLE TO 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BOGUE CHITTO AT 109 PM CST...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT
40 MPH. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE RESULTING IN
CONSIDERABLE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
EXTRA TIME AND BE ALERT FOR BLINDING WIND-DRIVEN RAIN.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME WEST CENTRAL CLARKE...COVINGTON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON DAVIS...NORTHERN JONES...NORTHWESTERN LAMAR...LAWRENCE...
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...NORTHERN MARION...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
NEWTON...SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON AND SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE
STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3117 9002 3133 9005 3134 9063 3145 9063
3223 8930 3222 8916 3203 8891 3182 8891
3182 8894 3172 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 308DEG 34KT 3212 8923 3136 9048

$$

MRM
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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