Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Evan bearing down on Fiji

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:19 PM GMT on December 16, 2012

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Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Evan is closing in on the main island of Fiji, where hurricane warnings are flying and torrential rains are already falling. Radar images from Fiji show that the large eye of Evan is just north of the two main islands of Fiji. The expected southwesterly track of the storm should keep the calm of the eye just north of Fiji, though the southern eyewall may brush the north coast of the main island of Vici Leva, affecting the tourist town of Nadi. Evan has intensified today to its strongest level yet, with 120 mph winds, and satellite loops show that the storm remains well-organized, with plenty of intense heavy thunderstorm activity and a prominent eye. Evan will be in a region with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots as it approaches Fiji, and could intensify by another 5 - 10 mph before making its closest pass to the islands later today. According to NOAA's Coastal Services Center, Evan is the strongest tropical cyclone to threaten Fiji since Tropical Cyclone Daman of December 2007. Dating back to 1972, twelve Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclones have threatened the Republic of Fiji.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Fiji weather service showing the large eye of Tropical Cyclone Evan just north of Fiji.

Severe damage in Samoa from Evan
Evan made landfall on the north shore of Samoa near the capital of Apia on Thursday as a Category 1 cyclone with 90 mph winds, and intensified into a Category 3 storm with 115 mph after the eye wandered back offshore late Thursday. Media reports indicate that Evan killed four and has left eight missing on Samoa, and left at least 4,000 homeless. The main power plant for Samoa was destroyed, and it is expected that power will be out to almost all of Samoa for at least ten more days. Evan was one of Samoa's most destructive tropical cyclones on record, as discussed by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Evan nearing Fiji at 01:35 UTC December 16, 2012. At the time, Evan was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:
The Rainbow Loop shows a well defined Mature Typhoon bearing down on the Islands.

Note the CDO symmetry in the final frames and the eye structure as well.


I just checked out the map and satellite map of Fiji.
Worth taking a look at.
It seems that there are a lot of detached buildings near the shore on the satellite images and that an arc of islands is directly in the path of the eye according to Pats map.The eye is going to go right through that arc of islands.
The main island to the south is about 50 miles across and roughly circular.
I think we are looking at major devastation here.
As I remember Fiji, the coast is fairly flat in the airport area with some low hills to the north east but nothing to slow these kind of winds!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
As soon as the eye clears, ADT goes straight up:



well i mean it should hahaha
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




I embarked on a new career at 51.
I'm 53 now.


I embarked on my last career, blogging.
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Good evening everyone.

Great article I found a link to:

NASA sure is confident

They even have a youtube video-form of it, it's alright.

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Looking at those storm position maps you have been posting,(between comparing ages,)it looks like the center of this storm is going to pass directly over the international airport.
I was in Fiji at the airport a few years ago and it is very close to the shore, as I remember it the runway was probably only a few hundred yards from the beach.
Very flat area just a beach road and a line of palm trees to the sea, probably not more than a few feet above sea level.
Chances are, though we dont want it but the airport is going to get some severe damage , if not devastating, which will no doubt impair any relief aid flights. More bad news.
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Quoting Grothar:


Says who????




I embarked on a new career at 51.
I'm 53 now.
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Impressive, and Deadly





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As soon as the eye clears, ADT goes straight up:

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Quoting plutorising:

you have 40 + years of working life ahead of you. around 40 it'll be easy to start another career, and at about 60 you can do it again.


Says who????
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133. wpb
tc near fiji has strongest winds southwest of the eye?
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Quoting wxchaser97:

2012-1997=15
wxchaser97

It may be difficult but they are both things I really like.

you have 40 + years of working life ahead of you. around 40 it'll be easy to start another career, and at about 60 you can do it again.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


lol.... he said about the same age... I guess a month is far from about the same then

lol you kids. at the other end of the spectrum, twenty years difference in ages is considered the same time.
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There are now 5 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I'm glad that someone is paying attention to the weather on Dec. 21st.


speaking of w eather next week.

feh, tried to post a funny picture.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30285



Typhoon Bopha - Dec 2012
Featured
Glide: TC-2012-000197-PHL


Overview

Typhoon Bopha passed to the south of the larger islands in the Palau archipelago in the early morning of 3 Dec 2012 with winds of up to 250 km per hour, damaging and destroying buildings and infrastructure. The President declared a state of emergency. (OCHA, 5 Dec 2012)

In the Philippines, the typhoon, locally known as Pablo, made landfall three times as it passed through northern Mindanao, central Visayas, and Palawan on 4 Dec, affecting over 5.4 million people. On 12 Dec, the death toll stands at 740 with a further 890 people reported missing. Overall displacement figures continue to rise, currently totaling 778,200. (OCHA, 12 Dec 2012)

On 10 Dec, the Government and the Humanitarian Country Team launched the Bopha Action Plan for Response and Recovery as part of the Philippines Humanitarian Action Plan 2013, requesting US$65 million to reach 481,000 of the most affected people.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


how bout ya?


BD,(before dirt)right after Grothar's Big Bang, he was always playing with things that went bang, even as a kid.
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124. N3EG
Bombing 980mb low with high winds coming ashore near Astoria, OR today...has TWC named it? Guess not...
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The Rainbow Loop shows a well defined Mature Typhoon bearing down on the Islands.

Note the CDO symmetry in the final frames and the eye structure as well.

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Quoting wxchaser97:

2012-1997=15
wxchaser97

It may be difficult but they are both things I really like.
Cool.If you keep with that Idea,I know you will make it. 15 is a good age,but 17 is much better :p
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Typhoon EVAN

Night IR to Day RGB Loop

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Interesting fact:

The cumulative damage total of last decade's (2009-2009) retired Atlantic hurricanes is ~$300 billion. So far this decade (2010-2019), retired storms (will count Sandy as it will be retired in the Spring) have accounted for $83 billion in damage. With the streak of no major hurricane landfalls likely to wear off before 2019, this decade will probably...if I were to take an educated guess...end up as the most destructive decade on record.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30285
This would bring high winds and a rain to snow event.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7890
Quoting aquak9:


at least they can do it without using calculus....


that left a mark....
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Fiji wundersites


Vunisea Weather at a Glance
Weather Station


These are estimated conditions. There are no weather stations nearby.
Station Select
Now

Thunderstorm
Temperature
82 °F
Feels Like 88 °F

Vunisea 82 °F 82% n/a Thunderstorm East at 42




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Quoting Grothar:
They have got to be getting some serious rain.

Vanua Levu is getting the dirty side of the storm for surge.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Wow keeping those two jobs would be difficult I think.btw you are 15? I thought you were 13.

2012-1997=15
wxchaser97

It may be difficult but they are both things I really like.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7890
114. DDR
Good evening
Anther trough is set to stall over Trinidad and Tobago for a few days.I'm expecting 2-4 inches of rain.
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Warnings about storm surge are essential: Editorial


The majority of New Yorkers who died in Hurricane Sandy drowned, many in their homes. A Wall Street Journal graphic details each death: Eden Toussaint, 58, drowned and was found in his basement in Queens; Rick Gold, 67, drowned and was found in his basement, also in Queens; Walter Colborne, 89, drowned after fleeing his Staten Island home.

There are similarly heart-breaking deaths in New Jersey's coastal towns.

All of them point to the need for warnings about storm surge that are understandable and convey the danger that floodwaters pose, even in a storm without fierce winds.

Three years after it dropped surge from the numerical categories used for hurricanes, the National Hurricane Center is inching closer to a separate warning for floodwaters as part of a storm system. It is urgently needed. Center officials say that the full warning system won't be ready until 2015, but they should look for any way possible to speed up that time line.

In the meantime, a color-coded map that indicates how much water is expected in different areas along the coast needs to be ready for use during the 2013 hurricane
season. But Hurricane Center officials are not committing to that. They say the map may be ready next year or in 2014.

Another hurricane season is really too long for vulnerable communities to wait. The maps ought to be available for the 2013 season, and Congress should give the Hurricane Center the resources to make that possible.

The Storm Surge Unit is small, which is a result of budget limitations, team leader Jamie Rhome told Times-Picayune/NOLA.com reporter Mark Schleifstein during a Dec. 5 tour of the center at Florida International University. "I'm the only federal employee here dedicated to storm surge. One federal employee to do what we do in a hurricane, to do all the outreach and training in the offseason and to try to help on the international front.''

Mr. Rhome's staff includes a representative from NOAA's science corps, which is not part of the National Weather Service, and three private contractors. But that is a tiny group to handle surge forecasting during hurricane season -- sometimes on more than one storm at once -- and work on surge research and storm analysis in the other months.

Access to technology for the research has been an issue as well. The surge maps will be based on high-resolution topography information. That is now in hand, but the surge team is trying to decrease the time it takes to create a surge map as a storm is moving toward the coast.

Officials need to agree on the final map and then figure out how best to distribute it to local forecast offices and emergency management agencies. That will take significant coordination and training all along the nation's coastlines.

Obviously, that is a very complicated process. But there must be a sense of urgency about getting it completed for 2013. Hurricane Center officials should figure out what it will take to do so, and then Congress should provide the necessary funding.

The maps, although they will lack the precision of the surge warning being developed, are easily understandable. Blue indicates 3 feet or less water above ground level and red is at the extreme upper end, 9 feet or more above ground. Yellow and orange are intermediate depths. When done, the full warning system will let people know where life-threatening flooding is likely. But the colors on the maps make it pretty obvious if you are at risk.

The heightened awareness of storm surge started with Katrina. And this fall, Isaac and Sandy provided grim reminders. Both of them had only Category 1 winds, but they had dangerous levels of surge that coastal residents didn't fully understand.

There is detailed information on surge available during a storm, but it is not disseminated in an understandable and useful way. It hasn't been emphasized to the public as it should be, either. In addition, local officials have been left to decipher technical information they may not be equipped to handle.

National Hurricane Center directors and emergency managers in hurricane-prone states have complained for 20 years about leaving those decisions to local officials who are untrained and may be more concerned about issues like the cost of evacuation. As the surge warnings are developed, state and local officials who are making evacuation decisions need to be trained to decipher the information.

The impetus is obvious: A clear warning could save lives.

Ann George, 60, and Augustus "Gus" Saunders, 52, drowned in their Braithwaite home during Isaac. The couple believed they could weather the storm. Dozens of other residents there and in LaPlace thought the same thing and ended up being rescued from the floodwaters.

They and Sandy's victims in the Northeast are why the new warning system is so important and why the surge maps, at the least, need to be ready for next season.


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They have got to be getting some serious rain.

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Typhoon 04P/EVAN


UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 DEC 2012 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 16:41:45 S Lon : 178:18:55 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 972.3mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.8 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -59.2C Cloud Region Temp : -82.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 118km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 47.6 degrees






JAVA Movie
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Quoting aquak9:


at least they can do it without using calculus....


Thanks, "old" friend. :)
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Hundreds of tourists trapped in Fiji, as monster cyclone bears down on South Pacific islands
Posted on December 16, 2012


December 16, 2012 – FIJI - Fijian authorities scrambled to evacuate tourists and residents in low-lying areas Sunday as a monster cyclone threatened the Pacific nation with “catastrophic damage” after causing devastation in Samoa. At least four people were killed when Cyclone Evan slammed into Samoa and the toll was expected to rise with a search launched for eight men missing on three fishing boats. Only one survivor has been found, said the New Zealand Rescue Co-ordination Centre, which is overseeing the search. After crossing Samoa, Evan intensified as it ploughed through the Pacific and forecasters said destructive winds could reach nearly 300 kilometers per hour (186 miles per hour) by the time it hits Fiji early Monday. Government officials fear it could be as devastating as Cyclone Kina, which killed 23 people and left thousands homeless in 1993. Squally thunderstorms were expected to flood low-lying areas while coastal villages were at risk of sea flooding, authorities said. The international airport at Nadi was packed as 850 tourists were removed from luxury resorts on outlying islands, “The safety of the tourists was paramount,” said Fiji Tourism and Hotel Association managing director Dixon Seeto, but with most flights booked the holidaymakers had little chance of getting out before the storm. Fiji’s main airline Air Pacific either cancelled or rescheduled its Monday flights while other airlines said they were closely monitoring the situation. Philip Duncan, head analyst with the WeatherWatch.co.nz meteorological service, said Fiji faced the prospect of flash flooding and mudslides. “Gusts may end up climbing to 280 kilometers per hour or greater around the centre of Evan,” Duncan said. “Some small, low-lying communities and resorts may suffer catastrophic damage and some small islands may be entirely submerged as the storm and storm surge roll by.” More than 200 evacuation centers have been opened and Information Ministry permanent secretary Sharon Smith-Johns said people at risk should move. “People living in low-lying areas should consider moving to higher ground or evacuation centres,” she said. Fiji’s military leader Voreqe Bainimarama has warned the storm is an “impending disaster” and offers of international aid have already been received. Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr said Canberra was offering financial assistance as well as expert personnel and supplies. The cyclone is expected to hit the northern part of Fiji early Monday with strong winds and heavy rain striking several hours earlier, said Nadi Weather Office duty forecaster Amit Singh. “The cyclone is not going to slow down. It is intensifying,” he said. Meanwhile, it could be some days before the full extent of the damage in Samoa is known because of the difficulty reaching outlying islands. About 4,500 people remain in emergency shelters after Evan destroyed houses and damaged electricity and fresh water supplies, Samoan officials said. Prime Minister Tuilaepa Sailele also warned of possible food shortages next year because crops were destroyed. –BI

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Quoting wxchaser97:

Future meteorologist / firefighter.
Wow keeping those two jobs would be difficult I think.btw you are 15? I thought you were 13.
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I don't know why I can't get the whole image, but it looks like it will be closer to land than they thought.

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Quoting Grothar:
Will you people stop talking about your ages.


at least they can do it without using calculus....
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Will you people stop talking about your ages.
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Evan has scary structure. Good thing it has struggled with its convection over the past few days.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30285
Evan's outflow is excellent:

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE SRN CASCADES EWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ORE
AND PARTS OF THE NRN SIERRAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 162039Z - 170215Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF SNOW WITH RATES POTENTIALLY REACHING 1 IN/HR...
AND PERHAPS 2 IN/HR OVER THE CASCADES AND SIERRAS...WILL IMPACT THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK AND ACCOMPANYING ZONE OF
ENHANCED DEEP TROPOSPHERIC FLOW CONTINUE APPROACHING THE COAST PER
RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS THE FLOW BELOW 700 MB IMPINGES ON A
NW/SE-ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE AT AN OBLIQUE ANGLE...WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL ALLOW SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ORE TO THE E OF
THE ORE CASCADES AFTER 22Z...WHILE SNOW CONTINUES WITH INCREASING
RATES OVER PARTS OF THE CASCADES/SIERRAS. SNOWFALL RATES REACHING
1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE AOA 3500 FT ELEVATION...WHILE RATES LOCALLY
REACHING 2 IN/HR MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE CASCADES/SIERRAS. AFTER
A LULL IN THIS PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z...SNOWFALL RATES
POTENTIALLY REACHING 1 IN/HR -- EXCEPT TO 2 IN/HR OVER THE
CASCADES/SIERRAS -- WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT THE AREA. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE -- DEPICTED FROM 43N TO 49N
BETWEEN 127W AND 135W PER RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS -- CROSSES THE
AREA.
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Quoting Doppler22:


What do you think Fiji will do to Evan considering the elevation on Fiji?

Fiji is too small to have any major effect on Evan. However, increasing shear and cooler waters will begin to take their toll in the next day or two, Evan will likely peak this evening/tonight.
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Quoting Doppler22:


What do you think Fiji will do to Evan considering the elevation on Fiji?


not much
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869


What do you think Fiji will do to Evan considering the elevation on Fiji?

I don't think Fiji will mess with it's circulation much if it even does...
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Oh my goodness....Such a young guy...Happy Birthday


thanks... btw. people here were calling me old
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
My birthday coming up...can't wait to finally turn 20 tomorrow
Oh my goodness....Such a young guy...Happy Birthday
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I think Evan's the first Cat 4 storm I've ever seen that never fully cleared its eye out.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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