Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Evan bearing down on Fiji

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:19 PM GMT on December 16, 2012

Share this Blog
37
+

Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Evan is closing in on the main island of Fiji, where hurricane warnings are flying and torrential rains are already falling. Radar images from Fiji show that the large eye of Evan is just north of the two main islands of Fiji. The expected southwesterly track of the storm should keep the calm of the eye just north of Fiji, though the southern eyewall may brush the north coast of the main island of Vici Leva, affecting the tourist town of Nadi. Evan has intensified today to its strongest level yet, with 120 mph winds, and satellite loops show that the storm remains well-organized, with plenty of intense heavy thunderstorm activity and a prominent eye. Evan will be in a region with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots as it approaches Fiji, and could intensify by another 5 - 10 mph before making its closest pass to the islands later today. According to NOAA's Coastal Services Center, Evan is the strongest tropical cyclone to threaten Fiji since Tropical Cyclone Daman of December 2007. Dating back to 1972, twelve Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclones have threatened the Republic of Fiji.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Fiji weather service showing the large eye of Tropical Cyclone Evan just north of Fiji.

Severe damage in Samoa from Evan
Evan made landfall on the north shore of Samoa near the capital of Apia on Thursday as a Category 1 cyclone with 90 mph winds, and intensified into a Category 3 storm with 115 mph after the eye wandered back offshore late Thursday. Media reports indicate that Evan killed four and has left eight missing on Samoa, and left at least 4,000 homeless. The main power plant for Samoa was destroyed, and it is expected that power will be out to almost all of Samoa for at least ten more days. Evan was one of Samoa's most destructive tropical cyclones on record, as discussed by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Evan nearing Fiji at 01:35 UTC December 16, 2012. At the time, Evan was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 244 - 194

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

Quoting Neapolitan:
So the way to prevent gun violence is to encourage even more guns?

Seriously?

Guns for teachers in order to protect themselves and their students. The outcome would have entirely different had the teachers had something to defend themselves with.

Somehow I knew we'd get back to this topic. :S
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409
Quoting maeko:
I'm worried for my friend that lives in the Capitol of Fiji. Is there any news/reports from impact? Does anybody have any information?


Thousands flee Cyclone Evan in Fiji

THOUSANDS of people have fled to evacuation centres in Fiji as authorities warn to "prepare for the worst" from a powerful category four cyclone bearing down on the Pacific nation.

Power outages and flooding were reported on the main island of Viti Levu as Tropical Cyclone Evan approached, with all flights to and from Fiji cancelled as a precaution.

At least four people were killed when the cyclone slammed into neighbouring Samoa late last week and the Fiji government said it was taking no chances, shifting tourists and residents from low-lying areas.

"Members of the public are advised to prepare for the worst," spokeswoman Sharon Smith-Johns said, adding that 3,500 people were sheltering in evacuation centres and the number was expected to increase.

Officials said storm warnings were in effect for the entire nation and all non-essential public servants had been told to stay at home but there were no reports of injuries or deaths.
They said the category four cyclone was about 85km off Nadi, site of the main international airport, and could intensify as it approaches the coast, packing winds of 270km/h.

It is expected to skirt Nadi, which was swamped by another cyclone that killed five people in April, and head southwest, generating 12 metre swells which could exacerbate flooding at high tide at 10pm (2000 AEDT) .

The cyclone is thought to be the strongest to threaten Fiji since Cyclone Kina, which killed 23 people and left thousands homeless in 1993.

Relief agencies were still assessing damage to remote islands in Samoa, where the New Zealand Rescue Co-ordination Centre is overseeing a search for three boats carrying eight men that failed to return from fishing trips Friday.

Rescue coordinator Geoff Lunt said there had been no sighting of the boats and debris from the cyclone was creating difficult search conditions.

"There is a lot of flotsam in the ocean which makes the visual search quite challenging but the aircraft will be coordinating their efforts to ensure the search area is thoroughly covered," he said.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting lahcuts:
The continuing tragedy of mass shootings is not to be unexpected. There are individuals that have significant psychological problems, some of whom simply go off the deep end. Who these individuals are cannot be known with any certainty. Therefore, these tragedies will continue as they have since day one. To think otherwise is not rational. Equally not rational is the concept of the many gun free zones. Where do these tragedies occur %u2013 in gun free zones %u2013 schools, churches, movie theaters, malls. Court houses are gun free zones for obvious reasons but they are not gun free. Many court house personnel are armed. There have not been many mass killing in a gun shop (many personnel are armed whether you see the gun or not), a police station (obviously), a gun show (which may have a thousand or more folks in one confined space). Someone may start shooting in any location but they are quickly neutralized if other folks are armed. The situation does not end up as a mass killing. Pilots can be armed. Prior to 9/11, that was not the case. It took 9/11 to make folks see that guns can and do prevent bad things from happening. Yes, bad things can happen with guns, but those situations are due to criminals being armed (there are laws against this), gun safety rules not being followed in general, and in the case of accidental child or adult shootings, lack of foresight or lack of concern as to the consequences of not securing or treating a weapon properly.

When I pick up my grandchildren from school, I leave my concealed carry weapon at home, not because of any danger to the children, but because of the laws which prevent me from entering the school with the weapon. I do not leave it in the car because the car can be stolen along with the weapon. I have on many more than one occasion, not gone into a store because on the no guns allowed sign %u2013 a sale lost to that business.

The horrible heart wrenching tragedy of last Friday may have been significantly moderated or even prevented if certain teachers had been armed. There appears to have been sufficient time from the initial confrontation with the staff to the killing of the children to have allowed a trained, armed staff member to intervene and do what needed to be done. That entire school population was as if they were fish in a barrel, no matter it be a grade school, high school or a university. The police responded within minutes but they were needed in seconds. Not their fault, their actions were probably better than the best that they could do.

I for one would feel less fretful knowing that there were teachers in my grandchildren%u2019s schools who were armed and trained to use their weapons.
So the way to prevent gun violence is to encourage even more guns?

Seriously?

Following that logic, then, imagine what a safe world we'd live in if every person were armed! Every teacher and student; every theatergoer; every mall shopper, office worker, and mail sorter! Imagine each and every one of them packing heat, ready to draw at a moment's notice and take out The Bad Guy! Yes! That would work! Look at places like Syria and Somalia and Afghanistan and Nigeria! Just about every man, woman, and child has an AK-47--and when's the last time you read about any gun violence happening there?!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
The below needs to happen in order to prevent terrible tragedies of mass murderers shooting in public places

1. Hands On Parenting..stop leaving TV, internet and video games to raise our children
2. Media Sensationlism of murderers, violence, etc needs to END!!
3. Violence commonly depicted and easily accessible on Television, Movies,Internet and Video Games has to stop
4. STRICTER Gun Control Laws
5. Remove sale of weapons from Walmart and any other family shopping center
6. PUT GOD BACK IN THE SCHOOLS

Good night and please remember the families, the little angels, the brave teachers, first responders in your prayers..







See my new blog.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RTSplayer/show.h tml

It is unlikely that anything except number 4 on your list could be accomplished, and even that is highly unlikely to be anything more than a limp-wristed crap law that can't actually deal with the nature of evil.

There's too many "rights," and Americans are either too naive or too willingly blind to deal with the issues, and I vote for the later, not the former.

All I'm saying for now.

Read the blog, if you like, and you'll see what I mean.

"Know thy enemy"

"Keep your friends close and your enemies even closer."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lahcuts:
The continuing tragedy of mass shootings is not to be unexpected. There are individuals that have significant psychological problems, some of whom simply go off the deep end. Who these individuals are cannot be known with any certainty. Therefore, these tragedies will continue as they have since day one. To think otherwise is not rational. Equally not rational is the concept of the many gun free zones. Where do these tragedies occur – in gun free zones – schools, churches, movie theaters, malls. Court houses are gun free zones for obvious reasons but they are not gun free. Many court house personnel are armed. There have not been many mass killing in a gun shop (many personnel are armed whether you see the gun or not), a police station (obviously), a gun show (which may have a thousand or more folks in one confined space). Someone may start shooting in any location but they are quickly neutralized if other folks are armed. The situation does not end up as a mass killing. Pilots can be armed. Prior to 9/11, that was not the case. It took 9/11 to make folks see that guns can and do prevent bad things from happening. Yes, bad things can happen with guns, but those situations are due to criminals being armed (there are laws against this), gun safety rules not being followed in general, and in the case of accidental child or adult shootings, lack of foresight or lack of concern as to the consequences of not securing or treating a weapon properly.

When I pick up my grandchildren from school, I leave my concealed carry weapon at home, not because of any danger to the children, but because of the laws which prevent me from entering the school with the weapon. I do not leave it in the car because the car can be stolen along with the weapon. I have on many more than one occasion, not gone into a store because on the no guns allowed sign – a sale lost to that business.

The horrible heart wrenching tragedy of last Friday may have been significantly moderated or even prevented if certain teachers had been armed. There appears to have been sufficient time from the initial confrontation with the staff to the killing of the children to have allowed a trained, armed staff member to intervene and do what needed to be done. That entire school population was as if they were fish in a barrel, no matter it be a grade school, high school or a university. The police responded within minutes but they were needed in seconds. Not their fault, their actions were probably better than the best that they could do.

I for one would feel less fretful knowing that there were teachers in my grandchildren’s schools who were armed and trained to use their weapons.

You relayed my thoughts almost exactly.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409
Quoting ncstorm:
The below needs to happen in order to prevent terrible tragedies of mass murderers shooting in public places

1. Hands On Parenting..stop leaving TV, internet and video games to raise our children
2. Media Sensationlism of murderers, violence, etc needs to END!!
3. Violence commonly depicted and easily accessible on Television, Movies,Internet and Video Games has to stop
4. STRICTER Gun Control Laws
5. Remove sale of weapons from Walmart and any other family shopping center
6. PUT GOD BACK IN THE SCHOOLS

Good night and please remember the families, the little angels, the brave teachers, first responders in your prayers..







3 and 6 are dumb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The continuing tragedy of mass shootings is not to be unexpected. There are individuals that have significant psychological problems, some of whom simply go off the deep end. Who these individuals are cannot be known with any certainty. Therefore, these tragedies will continue as they have since day one. To think otherwise is not rational. Equally not rational is the concept of the many gun free zones. Where do these tragedies occur – in gun free zones – schools, churches, movie theaters, malls. Court houses are gun free zones for obvious reasons but they are not gun free. Many court house personnel are armed. There have not been many mass killing in a gun shop (many personnel are armed whether you see the gun or not), a police station (obviously), a gun show (which may have a thousand or more folks in one confined space). Someone may start shooting in any location but they are quickly neutralized if other folks are armed. The situation does not end up as a mass killing. Pilots can be armed. Prior to 9/11, that was not the case. It took 9/11 to make folks see that guns can and do prevent bad things from happening. Yes, bad things can happen with guns, but those situations are due to criminals being armed (there are laws against this), gun safety rules not being followed in general, and in the case of accidental child or adult shootings, lack of foresight or lack of concern as to the consequences of not securing or treating a weapon properly.

When I pick up my grandchildren from school, I leave my concealed carry weapon at home, not because of any danger to the children, but because of the laws which prevent me from entering the school with the weapon. I do not leave it in the car because the car can be stolen along with the weapon. I have on many more than one occasion, not gone into a store because on the no guns allowed sign – a sale lost to that business.

The horrible heart wrenching tragedy of last Friday may have been significantly moderated or even prevented if certain teachers had been armed. There appears to have been sufficient time from the initial confrontation with the staff to the killing of the children to have allowed a trained, armed staff member to intervene and do what needed to be done. That entire school population was as if they were fish in a barrel, no matter it be a grade school, high school or a university. The police responded within minutes but they were needed in seconds. Not their fault, their actions were probably better than the best that they could do.

I for one would feel less fretful knowing that there were teachers in my grandchildren’s schools who were armed and trained to use their weapons.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:


Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-FOUR FOR FIJI ON SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 2:09pm on Monday the 17th of December 2012
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP,
WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE BUA PROVINCE AND INTERIOR OF
VITI LEVU AND IS NOW IN FORCE FOR VATULELE.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI
LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA AND NEAR BY SMALLER
ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A DAMAGING HEAVY SWELL WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE [945HPA] CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17 DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 177 DECIMAL 3 EAST OR ABOUT 95 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR ABOUT 30 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
NADI AT MIDDAY AND ABOUT 140 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA AT 3PM TODAY.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 KM/HR. CLOSE TO ITS
CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UPTO 185 KM/HR
WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 270 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 160 KM
SOUTHWEST OF NADI OR ABOUT 215 KM WEST-SOUTWEST OF SUVA AT 3AM
TOMORROW AND 300 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NADI OR ABOUT 245 KM SOUTHWEST
OF KADAVU AT 3PM TOMORROW.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO
SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO
185 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 270 KM/HR. HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE BUA PROVINCE , THE INTERIOR OF VITI LEVU AND VATULELE:
EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 110
KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 150 KM/HR.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS,
KADAVU, BEQA AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 80 KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS WITH SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
STRONG WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 55 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
85 KM/HR. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS.FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS.A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA
GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA
GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.
The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND PHENOMENAL SEAS NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND VERY HIGH
SEAS. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS TO ABOUT 100 NAUTICAL MILES FROM
CENTRE . ELSEWHERE, STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY
SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Fiji on Severe Tropical Cyclone
Evan will be issued at or around 05:00pm today.


How come they call it Hurricane warning and not Cyclone warning???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-FOUR FOR FIJI ON SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 2:09pm on Monday the 17th of December 2012
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP,
WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE BUA PROVINCE AND INTERIOR OF
VITI LEVU AND IS NOW IN FORCE FOR VATULELE.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI
LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA AND NEAR BY SMALLER
ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A DAMAGING HEAVY SWELL WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE [945HPA] CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17 DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 177 DECIMAL 3 EAST OR ABOUT 95 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR ABOUT 30 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
NADI AT MIDDAY AND ABOUT 140 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA AT 3PM TODAY.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 KM/HR. CLOSE TO ITS
CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UPTO 185 KM/HR
WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 270 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 160 KM
SOUTHWEST OF NADI OR ABOUT 215 KM WEST-SOUTWEST OF SUVA AT 3AM
TOMORROW AND 300 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NADI OR ABOUT 245 KM SOUTHWEST
OF KADAVU AT 3PM TOMORROW.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO
SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO
185 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 270 KM/HR. HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE BUA PROVINCE , THE INTERIOR OF VITI LEVU AND VATULELE:
EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 110
KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 150 KM/HR.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS,
KADAVU, BEQA AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 80 KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS WITH SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
STRONG WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 55 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
85 KM/HR. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS.FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS.A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA
GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA
GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.
The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND PHENOMENAL SEAS NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND VERY HIGH
SEAS. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS TO ABOUT 100 NAUTICAL MILES FROM
CENTRE . ELSEWHERE, STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY
SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Fiji on Severe Tropical Cyclone
Evan will be issued at or around 05:00pm today.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Chicago's snow-less streak looks to end on Friday.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409
233. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
12:00 PM FST December 17 2012
===================================

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE BUA PROVINCE AND INTERIOR OF VITI LEVU (Fiji/Rotuma)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TAVEUNI, THE REST OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA, VATULELE AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (945 hPa) located at 17.2S 177.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots. Position good based on radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Deep convection persistent in past 24 hours over low level circulation center. Eye visible in radar and visible/infrared imagery. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with MG eye in W surround

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24 HRS.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 18.6S 176.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 20.0S 176.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 22.3S 176.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cyclone Evan hits Fiji: 'This will be much worse'
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
231. Skyepony (Mod)
Update: 1:40PM RAKIRAKI bore the full brunt of Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan earlier today as it passed through towards the Yasawa Group.

Heavy rain and strong winds are still being experienced in the district and Rakiraki Town is also closed for business from the morning.

The Vaileka River has burst its banks and water is flowing into the town.

Police officers and firemen are on standby to assist people in need of help at the height of the cyclone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Vuda Point, Fiji:



Unbelievable rate of rainfall.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409
News is usually slow to filter out of an area taking such a hit. I would also be wary of the truthfulness of reports on twitter, etc. unless you can verify that the source is reliable. Definitely gives an anxious feeling.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
228. Skyepony (Mod)
Evacuations as Cyclone Evan hits Fiji
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
227. maeko
I'm worried for my friend that lives in the Capitol of Fiji. Is there any news/reports from impact? Does anybody have any information?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Landfall?

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
The rules and definitions sometimes run amok at the NHC. Close counts with hand grenades and cyclones.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Maybe not.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409
yes indeed Evan is making landfall
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC's glossary:

Landfall
The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water. Compare direct hit, indirect hit, and strike.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The center of Evan is riding right along the coast, possibly making landfall.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Evan is making landfall.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409
I'm not sure whether it made an official landfall or not:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7600
Evan is making landfall.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4898


Link for enlarged image.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting TomTaylor:
Very sad. It makes me wonder just how many more shootings we need before our second amendment is amended. How many more innocent people must be killed before the second amendment loving, NRA gun nuts give in?

And to those who argue guns don't kill people, I present you this. In China, on the EXACT SAME DAY as the Sandy Hook Elementary School Shooting, a man walked into a Chinese elementary school and stabbed 23 students. Zero deaths have been reported.

Here are the gruesome details compared. Two crazy people, both attacking innocent children on the same day, one event in China, the other in the United States. One with a knife, the other with a gun.





That is the difference between a crazy man with a gun and a crazy man without a gun. There is absolutely no good reason civilians should be able to purchase assault rifles. Absolutely no reason.
What makes it an assault rifle. Is it how it looks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting goosegirl1:



I agree that we need stricter gun control laws. If the gun was designed t o kill a lot of people very quickly, civilians don't need it.

We also need to stop the public love-hate fest with those who commit mass murder. If we would take focus away from who did this awful deed, to mourning those lost, maybe the next monster will off himself in private instead of creating a huge media.


I too agree with you but there is something we all are missing here in this tragic Loss, and that is where he got the guns from. Information tells us that his mom had them and he took them after she was killed. He was not old enough to buy them and I donot believe that even his own father knew that he was capable of such a killing..... Just saying....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Four days nine hours and 41 minutes to the winter soltice.

Party on. ;>)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:
Dang, that is about as close to landfall as ya can get without the center of the eye crossing the coast. Ugly for Fiji.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WA/NRN ORE CASCADES AND OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS EWD
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN WA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 162312Z - 170345Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF SNOW WITH RATES POTENTIALLY REACHING 1 IN/HR...
AND PERHAPS 2 IN/HR OVER THE CASCADES AND OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS...WILL
AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON A LOCALIZED BASIS.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS DEPICT A COMPACT -- THOUGH SUBTLY
AMPLIFYING -- SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM 43N TO 48N BETWEEN 124W AND 132W
AS OF 2245Z. DCVA/ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE IS BEING
AUGMENTED BY THE ASCENDING BRANCH OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A 150-160-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST. THE LOWER-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING JET STREAK SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...WHICH IS ALREADY EVIDENT PER THE VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES ACCORDING TO PORTLAND/SEATTLE VWP DATA. AS SUCH...SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS AND THE
WA/NRN ORE CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING
LOCATIONS FARTHER E AFTER 00Z-01Z. SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 1 IN/HR
WILL BE LIKELY...WITH RATES REACHING 2 IN/HR WHERE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS AND WA/NRN
ORE CASCADES. WHILE SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE...RAIN WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 3000 FT TO THE
W OF THE WA/NRN ORE CASCADES...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
RELATIVELY WARMER/ABOVE-FREEZING PROFILES IN THE LOW LEVELS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PARTS OF UPSTATE NY...NRN CT...MUCH OF
VT...WRN/CNTRL MA...SWRN/W-CNTRL NH

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 170119Z - 170645Z

SUMMARY...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 04Z. FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES OF 0.05
INCH PER 3 HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO...SNOW RATES APPROACHING 1
IN/HR MAY OCCUR FROM CNTRL/ERN VT INTO W-CNTRL NH AFTER 10Z.

DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGES
DEPICT THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE ERN-CONUS BAROCLINIC LEAF
STRUCTURE ADVANCING NEWD TOWARD THE NERN STATES. EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS FEATURE...AN UPPER-LEVEL...QUASI-HORIZONTALLY COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE WILL BOTH /1/ MAINTAIN A MODEST WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AND /2/ STIMULATE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NY/NJ
COAST. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 04Z...AS AFFIRMED BY
CONSENSUS AMONGST HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting goosegirl1:



I agree that we need stricter gun control laws. If the gun was designed t o kill a lot of people very quickly, civilians don't need it.

We also need to stop the public love-hate fest with those who commit mass murder. If we would take focus away from who did this awful deed, to mourning those lost, maybe the next monster will off himself in private instead of creating a huge media frenzy.
That's a good point.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting TomTaylor:

Anything can be used as a weapon. Guns just happen to be one of our most effective weapons. Hundreds of times more effective than a bat. Since guns are so much more lethal, it is certainly warranted that we place stronger laws on gun control.

End of discussion, bat argument is out (pun intended). Try again if you'd like, but the arguments for gun control far outweigh the arguments against gun control.



I agree that we need stricter gun control laws. If the gun was designed t o kill a lot of people very quickly, civilians don't need it.

We also need to stop the public love-hate fest with those who commit mass murder. If we would take focus away from who did this awful deed, to mourning those lost, maybe the next monster will off himself in private instead of creating a huge media frenzy.

Washi, I don't think we will see snow anytime soon. It was rainy here today, but topped out at 50. We have not seen winter weather in December for several years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:


I agree. It appears that it's now unlikely that Evan is going to make landfall on the large island of Fiji due to its abrupt westward movement. Nevertheless, the cyclone will continue to bring heavy rain and strong winds to Fiji.
However, more of the coast will now get the strongest SE quadrant. BTW, I will refrain from making my views on the gun control discussion here. Not the time and place, IMO, with a major cyclone impacting inhabited land areas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting snotly:
I always though it was interesting that I can buy an assault weapon but not park on the wrong side of the street.

I'm just glad they don't have speed limits and stop signs, street lights and guard rails, since, as long as there is the threat of death by recklessness driving that in itself is enough to keep people totally in line. Cars don't kill people, reckless people kill people.
Miss-read your post, sorry. I agree.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Evan definitely jogged west in the last hour or so. It looked for sure that it was going to make landfall on the larger island but that doesn't look like it's gonna happen now:



I agree. It appears that it's now unlikely that Evan is going to make landfall on the large island of Fiji due to its abrupt westward movement. Nevertheless, the cyclone will continue to bring heavy rain and strong winds to Fiji.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
I always though it was interesting that I can buy an assault weapon but not park on the wrong side of the street.

I'm just glad they don't have speed limits and stop signs, street lights and guard rails, since, as long as there is the threat of death by recklessness driving that in itself is enough to keep people totally in line. Cars don't kill people, reckless people kill people.

But enough off topic chit chat, how bout some on tropic chit chat? How is Evan doing?


Quoting Bielle:


How many people have been killed by a baseball bat versus the number killed by a gun? How many people have been killed in a single incident by a baseball bat versus a gun? Perspective, lads, perspective!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
201. TomTaylor
12:57 AM GMT on December 17, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It doesn't matter how many less people baseball bats kill compared to gun. You guys want tighter gun laws in order to prevent a criminal from getting his/her hands on one as easily to prevent lives from being lost, regardless of the number. According to you and Tom's logic, if a select few people use a gun to kill a group of people, it should be banned or harder to gain access to. The same should go for the baseball bat by that logic.

Anything can be used as a weapon. Guns just happen to be one of our most effective weapons. Hundreds of times more effective than a bat. Since guns are so much more lethal, it is certainly warranted that we place stronger laws on gun control.

End of discussion, bat argument is out (pun intended). Try again if you'd like, but the arguments for gun control far outweigh the arguments against gun control.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
200. MAweatherboy1
12:55 AM GMT on December 17, 2012
Evan definitely jogged west in the last hour or so. It looked for sure that it was going to make landfall on the larger island but that doesn't look like it's gonna happen now:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7600
199. Civicane49
12:55 AM GMT on December 17, 2012
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
198. Civicane49
12:54 AM GMT on December 17, 2012
With the eye cleared out, ADT numbers skyrocketed:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
197. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:53 AM GMT on December 17, 2012
I'm done having an argument over something we shouldn't even be discussing here to begin with.

Anybody who wants to show support for the 26 children and staff killed at Sandy Hook Elementary School, wear green and white tomorrow. Those were the school colors.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409
196. TomTaylor
12:53 AM GMT on December 17, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

your society there has gun ownership interwoven in it's DNA. Here in Australia it is different but it's becoming more like your country every year.
I know, it's sad.

Sorry to hear your country is becoming more like ours in that sense.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
195. AussieStorm
12:51 AM GMT on December 17, 2012
Quoting TomTaylor:
Try and be rational, Aussie.

I'm not going to debate with an irrational person.

your society there has gun ownership interwoven in it's DNA. Here in Australia it is different but it's becoming more like your country every year.

I'm out, taking my wife to an eye appointment. Back later.
_______________________________________________

Cyclone Evan bears down on Fiji's north.

More than 3,500 people are sheltering in evacuation centres as Cyclone Evan bears down on Fiji's northern islands.

The storm has already caused widespread damage in Samoa, claiming at least four lives.



Fiji's Meteorological Office says at 9am local time the centre of Severe Tropical Cyclone C Evan was located about 30km due east of Yasawa i Ra island.

It is moving southwest by southerly at 22 kilometres an hour, and is expected to be about 60km west of Nadi around 8pm tonight.



The Met Office says the Yasawa and Mamanuca, and the west of Viti Levu will feel the worst of the cyclone, warning of hurricane force winds of 185 kilometres an hour, with gusts up to 270 kilometres an hour.

Strong wind warnings are in force for the whole country and an alert for destructive seas has also been issued.

Amit Singh has told Radio Australia's program the storm remains a category 4.



"As long as it stays in Fiji water, it will remain a category 4, and it moves further south it will decrease in intensity as it meets with the sea surface temperature," he said.



Storm surges of over 4 metres are likely with significant sea flooding likely later today along the north and western Viti Levu coast



Fiji's Ministry of Information says more than 3,500 evacuees are in centres in the country's north, with hundreds also evacuated in the west and south.

It says there have been reports of damage to property and low-lying areas have been inundated.

Electricity is off in Labasa, Savusavu, Rakiraki and parts of Tavua and Naitasiri, and some bridges and roads in the countries north have been washed out.



Air Pacific, Jetstar and Pacific Sun have cancelled all flights out of Fiji on Monday, and Fiji's Reserve Bank Governor has ordered all commercial banks closed until further notice.

Non-essential public servants have also been sent home.

Evan is 480 kilometres wide and packing winds of 230 kilometres per hour, making it the strongest cyclone to threaten the country in 20 years.

Foreign help

The Australian and New Zealand Governments say they are closely monitoring the movement of Cyclone Evan.



Both countries say that their concern is for the safety of its citizens in Fiji, as well as the welfare of all Fijians.

Canberra and Wellington say they are prepared to assist Fiji in all areas and remain on standby.

Emergency services in Fiji are preparing for the worst, while Fiji's Navy has urged sea farers not to travel out to sea during disasters.

Fijians living in low-lying areas have been urged to move to evacuation centres on higher ground.



Disaster management

Fiji's interim Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama on Sunday met with officials in Suva to discuss all aspects of disaster management before and after the cyclone.

Mr Bainimarama has urged public servants in the northern and western division to remain at home and wait further instructions.



"Because this is the festive season, I ask you to consider cancelling social events and to act responsibly, all of us need a clear mind for what is bearing down on us," he said.

"Only those working in essential services should be at work and they should liaise closely with their departments on this."

Mr Bainimarama says the government is coordinating the provision of emergency supplies, including food and water to areas that are likely to be affected.

"I cannot stress how serious this is, every Fijian will be affected."



Fiji's Permanent Secretary for Information, Sharon Smith-Johns, says many people have heeded the message and fled to higher ground.

"There are people that have already taken precautions. They know that they live in flood prone areas and they're moving to higher ground or moving in with relatives, so there is quite a lot of movement around Suva...and in the rural areas."

Evacuations

More than 20 evacuation centres have been set up in northern areas of Fiji, with centres also set up in the country's western division.

"We are advising people to move to high ground, those who are living in lower-lying areas," Asesela Biuviti of the national disaster management office said.

People on the island of Vanua Levu, and the smaller island groups are already heading to emergency centres

The government says troops in all parts of the country are ready to help with recovery assistance and search and rescue operations.



Ms Sharon Smith-Johns says the government feared Evan could be as devastating as Cyclone Kina which killed 23 people and left thousands homeless in 1993.

"This is going to be an extremely bad cyclone to hit us and probably the worse that we've seen since Cyclone Kina.

"It will be quite destructive. We've seen what's happened in Samoa and all we can do is be prepared here lucky we've had a week's notice of this," she said.

"All the agencies have been deployed, emergency services on standby, evacuation centres are open, rations have gone out.

The cyclone appears to have bypassed northern Tonga, where it was expected to bring gale force winds and heavy rain to the country's northern islands.


- ABC

© ABC 2012
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
194. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:51 AM GMT on December 17, 2012
Quoting Bielle:


How many people have been killed by a baseball bat versus the number killed by a gun? How many people have been killed in a single incident by a baseball bat versus a gun? Perspective, lads, perspective!

It doesn't matter how many less people baseball bats kill compared to gun. You guys want tighter gun laws in order to prevent a criminal from getting his/her hands on one as easily to prevent lives from being lost, regardless of the number. According to you and Tom's logic, if a select few people use a gun to kill a group of people, it should be banned or harder to gain access to. The same should go for the baseball bat by that logic.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409

Viewing: 244 - 194

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.