Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Evan bearing down on Fiji

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:19 PM GMT on December 16, 2012

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Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Evan is closing in on the main island of Fiji, where hurricane warnings are flying and torrential rains are already falling. Radar images from Fiji show that the large eye of Evan is just north of the two main islands of Fiji. The expected southwesterly track of the storm should keep the calm of the eye just north of Fiji, though the southern eyewall may brush the north coast of the main island of Vici Leva, affecting the tourist town of Nadi. Evan has intensified today to its strongest level yet, with 120 mph winds, and satellite loops show that the storm remains well-organized, with plenty of intense heavy thunderstorm activity and a prominent eye. Evan will be in a region with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots as it approaches Fiji, and could intensify by another 5 - 10 mph before making its closest pass to the islands later today. According to NOAA's Coastal Services Center, Evan is the strongest tropical cyclone to threaten Fiji since Tropical Cyclone Daman of December 2007. Dating back to 1972, twelve Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclones have threatened the Republic of Fiji.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Fiji weather service showing the large eye of Tropical Cyclone Evan just north of Fiji.

Severe damage in Samoa from Evan
Evan made landfall on the north shore of Samoa near the capital of Apia on Thursday as a Category 1 cyclone with 90 mph winds, and intensified into a Category 3 storm with 115 mph after the eye wandered back offshore late Thursday. Media reports indicate that Evan killed four and has left eight missing on Samoa, and left at least 4,000 homeless. The main power plant for Samoa was destroyed, and it is expected that power will be out to almost all of Samoa for at least ten more days. Evan was one of Samoa's most destructive tropical cyclones on record, as discussed by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Evan nearing Fiji at 01:35 UTC December 16, 2012. At the time, Evan was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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I admit, I'm rarely concerned about anything at all. However, these recent shootings have me thinking twice about taking the nature walks I sometimes take. I am cognizant (read: wise) enough not to attempt something like this until things calm down. It's a pretty common motif for crime to sharply increase following a particularly large atrocity like the one in Connecticut. In fact, I wholeheartedly expect even more shootings on the 21st because of the bat**** radicals who actually believe the end of the world is upon us.
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293. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting wildheron:
just north of mackinaw


Not far from me .. Good to see another poster from the area ..
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Quoting whitewabit:


where at in central Il .. Peoria here ...
just north of mackinaw
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291. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting wildheron:
on a weather note, another above average temp day here in central illinois. may have a chance for snow on thurs/fri.

back to lurking...........


where at in central Il .. Peoria here ...
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Quoting AussieStorm:

The Fight or Flight syndrome.
the reports i read said the principal and school psychologist did run toward the shooter in an attempt to stop him. guns in school may not be the answer (for fear a student would gain access to them) but what about mace? or pepper spray? (bear spray works from several feet away) i don't doubt the principal would have hesitated to mace the shooter, and things may have turned out a lot different. i don't have children (only 4-legged variety) and i can't begin to imagine the pain of their losses.

on a weather note, another above average temp day here in central illinois. may have a chance for snow on thurs/fri.

back to lurking...........
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting KoritheMan:


Is it me or did the eye jog southeast?


Maybe the eye jog southeast.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting KoritheMan:


Is it me or did the eye jog southeast?


it actually did, or is still doing, very odd..

and it is making landfall now for sure
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Quoting Civicane49:
The core of Cyclone Evan has become less organized by land interaction of Fiji. I am pretty sure Evan made landfall on Fiji.



Is it me or did the eye jog southeast?
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The core of Cyclone Evan has become less organized by land interaction of Fiji. I am pretty sure Evan made landfall on Fiji.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting KoritheMan:


Well he was.

very interested for next year's version... so harsh
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I didn't know 2007 Humberto was upped in the TCR from 80 to 90 mph


Well he was.
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I didn't know 2007 Humberto was upped in the TCR from 80 to 90 mph
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If symmetry holds, the southeast side closest to the large islands would be the bad side, but as the storm was approaching it seemed that the strongest radar echoes were on the northern side of the eyewall. Storms do not always follow the rules. Celia which struck Corpus Christi some years ago had its worst winds come in from the west after land fall. I think we'll have to wait and see what the news brings after the storm has passed and people are able to move about again.

Edit: The TCR on Celia--"Celia was a unique hurricane meteorologically in that most of the damage occured in conjunction with explosive tornado-like winds that developed in the left semicircle."
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279. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


How come they call it Hurricane warning and not Cyclone warning???


note all the warnings are based on wind forces factor.. likely these are all ship warnings.

"Gale Force"
"Storm Force"
"Hurricane Force"
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Jedkins01 Post 272 -
Good comment; thanks.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
So the way to prevent gun violence is to encourage even more guns?

Seriously?

Following that logic, then, imagine what a safe world we'd live in if every person were armed! Every teacher and student; every theatergoer; every mall shopper, office worker, and mail sorter! Imagine each and every one of them packing heat, ready to draw at a moment's notice and take out The Bad Guy! Yes! That would work! Look at places like Syria and Somalia and Afghanistan and Nigeria! Just about every man, woman, and child has an AK-47--and when's the last time you read about any gun violence happening there?!
Quoting AussieStorm:

But then there could be one teacher that loses it with a student and shoots them. Guns don't belong in schools. Better, tighter gun controls is what is needed. I heard on the radio if you buy a gun there from a gun shop you wait 10 days for the background checks to be done, but if you buy a guy at a gun show, no checks are done.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Watch some police shootout dashcam videos on YouTube. One common thing you'll notice is that, when confronted with the barrel of a gun pointed at them, even the most well-trained, highly-experienced law enforcement officer on the planet has a few moments of terror-filled panic before remembering to unholster their weapon, turn off the safety, aim, and fire. And these, mind you, are people who aren't just trained, but are prepared for the possibility that they could be shot at. I contend that there is no way someone such as, say, a first-grade teacher facing an armored, masked, assault rifle-toting gunman is going to have both the composure and the time to do anything.

More guns are the answer to gun violence like more cigarettes are the cure for lung cancer.
Good posts.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


What if our government made sharia law the new law in American schools and public life, would the same people then be so adamant of religious enforcement in schools?



They'd still perceive it as a "might makes right" situation. That kind of paradigm is not only hypocritical, it is completely antithetical to the core foundation of Christianity, which is Jesus Christ. To these types of Christians, freedom of religion really means "my way or the highway". They want to openly espouse their views while at the same time actively denying others to do the same. Hell, we still have most of America (not just Christians -- no need for an unfair exclusion of other guilty parties) convinced all Muslims are terrorists. I have an ex-Muslim friend in Baton Rouge that I met online and then subsequently met up with at a movie theater. We were in the car together and I told him "Dude, I'd tread carefully about your former Muslim affiliation if I were you. It likely won't fly here."

To these people, even an active government-sanctioned Sharia law would do nothing to make them realize the error of their ways. They'd just eliminate the Muslims (figuratively and literally), then just be even more convinced that they are right.
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274. maeko
I'm not used to looking at Pacific Cyclones and am confusing myself the more I look at it. Here on the East Coast, we say a place is getting 'the bad side' if the 'cane is passing just to the SW b/c they are getting the NE Quad. My friend is in Suva City. Is Suva getting the 'bad-side'?
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
BIRTHDAY'S SPECIAL GIFT TO ALL OF YOU TODAY
_______________________________

Since today's my birthday...here is what I promised to show you..click on all pics for larger view



in 4 days...


some of you know Latin here...BTW the first word should be habeamus


and...




THANK YOU GUYS!!!

I'll put them up this afternoon for the new people logging in later...


Happy Birthday!
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting KoritheMan:

I seriously think the people advocating the notion that we need god back in school don't actually know what it is they're implying. They're suggesting a government endorsement of a particular religion, which is wrong, regardless of belief or creed. These people also seem to forget that you can still pray in public schools. Also, if god exists, he obviously can't leave you unless you leave him. Last I checked there were believers everywhere.


I am a Christian, but I logically realize the problem with putting "God back in schools".

The government could decide to say any god told them to do any given thing. I personally don't want the government telling me what they think is the will of God, and then make that the law of the land, that is scary...


Its ironic though, the same general amount people who support such action in schools, would absolutely freak over gun rights being taken away, yet the potential outcome of the government doing things supposedly in the name of God is far more disturbing then even if Americans had their guns removed by federal law...
What if our government made sharia law the new law in American schools and public life, would the same people then be so adamant of religious enforcement in schools?



The fact is, if a parent wants their child to be raised on Christian doctrine, they can teach it to their children, not expect public schools to do so...



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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
BIRTHDAY'S SPECIAL GIFT TO ALL OF YOU TODAY
_______________________________

Since today's my birthday...here is what I promised to show you..click on all pics for larger view



in 4 days...


some of you know Latin here...BTW the first word should be habeamus


and...




THANKS YOU GUYS!!!

I'll put them up this afternoon for the new people logging in later...


Happy birthday!

Don't get too rowdy today!
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


??... freaky
LOL that was the idea :P
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Because you recognized my inherent sexiness. I thought no one ever would.


??... freaky
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


why blushes?? lol

Because you recognized my inherent sexiness. I thought no one ever would.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Well, what exactly do you mean by "Put God back in the schools"?

I agree the that students should be allowed to pray read their Bible, or whatever they may practice in school
I seriously think the people advocating the notion that we need god back in school don't actually know what it is they're implying. They're suggesting a government endorsement of a particular religion, which is wrong, regardless of belief or creed. These people also seem to forget that you can still pray in public schools. Also, if god exists, he obviously can't leave you unless you leave him. Last I checked there were believers everywhere.
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If anyone wants to keep up with the latest from Fiji, "Like" Oz Cyclone Chasers on Facebook or just bookmark there page.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey, that's me in there! *blushes*

Happy birthday!


why blushes?? lol
I looked for ui ID pic...and all the other fellas.
thanks
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
BIRTHDAY'S SPECIAL GIFT TO ALL OF YOU TODAY
_______________________________

Since today's my birthday...here is what I promised to show you..click on all pics for larger view



in 4 days...


some of you know Latin here...BTW the first word should be habeamus


and...




THANKS YOU GUYS!!!

I'll put them up this afternoon for the new people logging in later...


Hey, that's me in there! *blushes*

Happy birthday!
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Quoting ncstorm:
The below needs to happen in order to prevent terrible tragedies of mass murderers shooting in public places

1. Hands On Parenting..stop leaving TV, internet and video games to raise our children
2. Media Sensationlism of murderers, violence, etc needs to END!!
3. Violence commonly depicted and easily accessible on Television, Movies,Internet and Video Games has to stop
4. STRICTER Gun Control Laws
5. Remove sale of weapons from Walmart and any other family shopping center
6. PUT GOD BACK IN THE SCHOOLS

Good night and please remember the families, the little angels, the brave teachers, first responders in your prayers..








Well, what exactly do you mean by "Put God back in the schools"?

I agree the that students should be allowed to pray read their Bible, or whatever they may practice in school, however, the government shouldn't take any sides. There are many reason why. I'm sure you may be aware of them. However, schools should really cut the stupid social programs that attempt to indoctrinate children with certain philosophies/world views, and instead bring back some sort of solid moral structure the most can agree on regardless of faith preference or lack there of.


But ultimately, what I mentioned above is much more minor in comparison to the role of proper parenting. People blame the government for everything, but it really all begins at home...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BIRTHDAY'S SPECIAL GIFT TO ALL OF YOU TODAY
_______________________________

Since today's my birthday...here is what I promised to show you..click on all pics for larger view



in 4 days...


some of you know Latin here...BTW the first word should be habeamus


and...




THANK YOU GUYS!!!

I'll put them up this afternoon for the new people logging in later...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
While all this gun talk is fun and all, I'm going to just add in one weather thing. The 00z GFS continues with deepening a low over MI bringing high winds and a rain to snow event, about an inch of snow on the backside, in SE MI.


I wish that low was dipping lower towards the northeast so i can see some snow when i visit NYC.
Member Since: August 30, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 477
there will be extreme security in my younger sister's school tomorrow here
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http://www.fijitimes.com/
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't know.

This is an issue that is going to make a lot of people upset and is going to require a lot of thought, and action, from the Obama administration.

Don't forget to wear green and white tomorrow, if possible, to honor the 26 children and adults shot on Friday.

Night.


I would if Walmart allowed it.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't know.

This is an issue that is going to make a lot of people upset and is going to require a lot of thought, and action, from the Obama administration.

Don't forget to wear green and white tomorrow, if possible, to honor the 26 children and adults shot on Friday.

Night.

I have my green sweat jacket and white t-shirt already picked out for tomorrow.
Night C.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
I don't know.

This is an issue that is going to make a lot of people upset and is going to require a lot of thought, and action, from the Obama administration.

Don't forget to wear green and white tomorrow, if possible, to honor the 26 children and adults shot on Friday.

Night.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32872
Quoting ncstorm:


sorry but even trained individuals have psychological disorders..just adding gasoline to the fire..

the government cutbacks in mental illness centers and programs is the probably one of the first areas our politicians need to revisit..

I never said I was for or against it, just saying MI legislatures has passed that bill in response to the Newtown shooting.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
While all this gun talk is fun and all, I'm going to just add in one weather thing. The 00z GFS continues with deepening a low over MI bringing high winds and a rain to snow event, about an inch of snow on the backside, in SE MI.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting wxchaser97:

In Michigan a bill was just passed in the legislative that allows trained individuals to carry a concealed weapon in schools and churches and other gun-free zones. This bill is going to Governor Snyder for signing at some point in time(it might have already been signed, I don't know).
Link


sorry but even trained individuals have psychological disorders..just adding gasoline to the fire..

the government cutbacks in mental illness centers and programs is the probably one of the first areas our politicians need to revisit..
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Quoting nymore:
Whether you have a gun or not. Very few ppl will actually run into hell, most including a lot of you would not come out and join a fire fight. You can say you will but until you have been in a situation where your life could end any second you do not know what you are talking about or what you would do.

I would bet a lot of cash that 80 to 90 percent of you would try and get away instead of going to very possible death.

The Fight or Flight syndrome.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Guns for teachers in order to protect themselves and their students. The outcome would have entirely different had the teachers had something to defend themselves with.
Watch some police shootout dashcam videos on YouTube. One common thing you'll notice is that, when confronted with the barrel of a gun pointed at them, even the most well-trained, highly-experienced law enforcement officer on the planet has a few moments of terror-filled panic before remembering to unholster their weapon, turn off the safety, aim, and fire. And these, mind you, are people who aren't just trained, but are prepared for the possibility that they could be shot at. I contend that there is no way someone such as, say, a first-grade teacher facing an armored, masked, assault rifle-toting gunman is going to have both the composure and the time to do anything.

More guns are the answer to gun violence like more cigarettes are the cure for lung cancer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Guns for teachers in order to protect themselves and their students. The outcome would have entirely different had the teachers had something to defend themselves with.

In Michigan a bill was just passed in the legislative that allows trained individuals to carry a concealed weapon in schools and churches and other gun-free zones. This bill is going to Governor Snyder for signing at some point in time(it might have already been signed, I don't know).
Link
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Guns for teachers in order to protect themselves and their students. The outcome would have entirely different had the teachers had something to defend themselves with.

But then there could be one teacher that loses it with a student and shoots them. Guns don't belong in schools. Better, tighter gun controls is what is needed. I heard on the radio if you buy a gun there from a gun shop you wait 10 days for the background checks to be done, but if you buy a guy at a gun show, no checks are done.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting Neapolitan:
So the way to prevent gun violence is to encourage even more guns?

Seriously?
Quoting Neapolitan:
So the way to prevent gun violence is to encourage even more guns?

Seriously?


Why do we even need guns in the first place?
To protect us from other guns?
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Whether you have a gun or not. Very few ppl will actually run into hell, most including a lot of you would not come out and join a fire fight. You can say you will but until you have been in a situation where your life could end any second you do not know what you are talking about or what you would do.

I would bet a lot of cash that 80 to 90 percent of you would try and get away instead of going to a very possible death.
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Evan runs bulk carrier aground
Fiji Times
Update: 2:23PM A BULK carrier tried to fight ferocious winds whipped up by Cyclone Evan but lost and ran aground on the edge of the reef in the Suva Harbour.

The Starford, believed to be carrying equipment for the China First Railway Group constructing the Nabouwalu highway, dragged its anchor at 11.30am and was pushed on to the reef close to the entrance of the harbour.

Its agent, Carpenters Shipping, was discussing with the Chinese company on what to do to refloat the ship.


The bulk carrier, Starford, aground near the reef in Suva as strong winds lash the capital. Picture: JOHNATHAN SMITH
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting Neapolitan:
So the way to prevent gun violence is to encourage even more guns?

Seriously?

Guns for teachers in order to protect themselves and their students. The outcome would have entirely different had the teachers had something to defend themselves with.

Somehow I knew we'd get back to this topic. :S
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32872

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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