Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Evan bearing down on Fiji

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:19 PM GMT on December 16, 2012

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Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Evan is closing in on the main island of Fiji, where hurricane warnings are flying and torrential rains are already falling. Radar images from Fiji show that the large eye of Evan is just north of the two main islands of Fiji. The expected southwesterly track of the storm should keep the calm of the eye just north of Fiji, though the southern eyewall may brush the north coast of the main island of Vici Leva, affecting the tourist town of Nadi. Evan has intensified today to its strongest level yet, with 120 mph winds, and satellite loops show that the storm remains well-organized, with plenty of intense heavy thunderstorm activity and a prominent eye. Evan will be in a region with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots as it approaches Fiji, and could intensify by another 5 - 10 mph before making its closest pass to the islands later today. According to NOAA's Coastal Services Center, Evan is the strongest tropical cyclone to threaten Fiji since Tropical Cyclone Daman of December 2007. Dating back to 1972, twelve Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclones have threatened the Republic of Fiji.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Fiji weather service showing the large eye of Tropical Cyclone Evan just north of Fiji.

Severe damage in Samoa from Evan
Evan made landfall on the north shore of Samoa near the capital of Apia on Thursday as a Category 1 cyclone with 90 mph winds, and intensified into a Category 3 storm with 115 mph after the eye wandered back offshore late Thursday. Media reports indicate that Evan killed four and has left eight missing on Samoa, and left at least 4,000 homeless. The main power plant for Samoa was destroyed, and it is expected that power will be out to almost all of Samoa for at least ten more days. Evan was one of Samoa's most destructive tropical cyclones on record, as discussed by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Evan nearing Fiji at 01:35 UTC December 16, 2012. At the time, Evan was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Neapolitan:
We've heard that claim often over the past few days, as we did after Aurora, and after Columbine before that, and so on. But it's a hollow claim, if you ask me, and in my opinion about as logical as complaining about the food safety lobby "using" deaths from botulism and salmonella to promote a political agenda.

At any rate, what is the "anti gun" lobby? I personally prefer to call it the "parents who believe their children have a right to go to school or the movie theater and not be slaughtered by a lunatic brandishing weapons designed solely for soldiers killing enemy combatants on the battlefield" lobby.
First of all, all basic firearms designs were initially military weapons. An 'assualt rifle' is not a true current military weapon, it is semi-auto and not full auto.

Second, even strict rules on registration, storage and training regarding weapons did not stop Anders Behring Breivik from killing 77 and wounding 151 in otherwise low-violence Norway. There is little that you can do to stop a determined lunatic other than confronting him with force. And that is the problem with gun-free zones - if someone penetrates that zone with weapons, they have free reign for slaughter until someone shows up with a weapon themselves, or if some brave souls get lucky and can jump the perp when he is changing magazines (like what happened in the Arizona shootings) - a very small time window.

Israelis would like the 'right' for their children to not face threats of murder in their schools. But they know that will not happen in the near future, so there are armed guards at Israeli schools. Likewise, if a couple of principals were armed with weapons in secure storage in their office, they could confront a gunman before dozens of lives have been taken. That way no guns are regularly in the classrooms but they are available in case of a violent invasion. No guarantee they could stop the lunatic, but they would at least have a fighting chance and also maybe give an opportunity for students and teachers to escape. And they know their own schools far better than the cops showing up.

For every school shooting, there are defensive uses of guns that don't make the papers or the evening news. I have had to do such once in my life. Did not require me to shoot the weapon or even point it. Just showed the crackhead who had kicked in my door that I had a Mossberg and was getting ready to rack it. He was gone in a flash. Nothing sends someone bent on mayhem into incontinence and flight like the sound of a shotgun being racked or a round being chambered in a semiauto. And there are an estimated 2+ million such defensive uses of weapons each year in this country. Almost all of them simply require brandishing the weapon. A non-violent end to a potentially violent confrontation.

I don't concealed carry. I am big enough to deter just about anyone with size alone and am a crappy shot with a handgun anyway. I do believe carry in public requires training and a high degree of demonstrated competence. But CCW holders are not the problem in this country, they have an extremely low rate of having their permits revoked. I am glad they are around, I hope if I am sucked into a shooting incident one would be around to stop the perp. As the old saying goes, when seconds matter, the cops are minutes away.

It would be nice to live in a world without crackheads, thieves, lunatics and violent drunk husbands. But that ain't changing anytime soon, nor is the war on some drugs that triggers so much of the gun violence in this country. So as long as that exists, people will own guns for self defense. The idea of a gun-free zone being a more-secure place lives in denial of that reality.
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Eye coming out.
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I'm very amature about this kind of stuff, but it's so WEIRD seeing a TC go down
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WS Draco may deliver snow to the areas that lost it during the rain this weekend.
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Quoting ncstorm:
The below needs to happen in order to prevent terrible tragedies of mass murderers shooting in public places

1. Hands On Parenting..stop leaving TV, internet and video games to raise our children
2. Media Sensationlism of murderers, violence, etc needs to END!!
3. Violence commonly depicted and easily accessible on Television, Movies,Internet and Video Games has to stop
4. STRICTER Gun Control Laws
5. Remove sale of weapons from Walmart and any other family shopping center
6. PUT GOD BACK IN THE SCHOOLS

Good night and please remember the families, the little angels, the brave teachers, first responders in your prayers..







Is this a joke?
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Quoting biff4ugo:
It looks like Evans Eye hugged half the shoreline. Wow the eye shrunk down and sped up fast.

They still teach sharing, kindness, and treat others as you want to be treated in public schools. It is unfortunate that extreme views label that communism, weakness, and socialism. I'm glad my child is learning those values anyway.

I don't know where I would rather live, USA, UK, Philippines or here in Sydney. In the Philippines kids are taught respect from the day dot. The UK is a basket case when it comes to politically correctiveness.

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Good morning everyone, this last week before break will feature a changing weather pattern.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
It looks like Evans Eye hugged half the shoreline. Wow the eye shrunk down and sped up fast.

Why do the links to NOAA's loop page say they won't support JAVA loops after 1/1/2010? almost 3 years later. And their Special events imagery...also says 2010?
Did their web page person quit in mid 2010 or are we still stuck in Bizarro world from Karen and post#320?
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Naviti Street in Lautoka as Cyclone Evan showed its category four strength. Picture: BALJEET SINGH
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Loop

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ABC News
The NRA, which frequently communicates through social media, hasn't tweeted since before the shooting.

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thank you Doug....right on
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On a much lighter and wonderful side, please enjoy Einstein, a very talented parrot.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


I am a Christian, but I logically realize the problem with putting "God back in schools".

The government could decide to say any god told them to do any given thing. I personally don't want the government telling me what they think is the will of God, and then make that the law of the land, that is scary...


Its ironic though, the same general amount people who support such action in schools, would absolutely freak over gun rights being taken away, yet the potential outcome of the government doing things supposedly in the name of God is far more disturbing then even if Americans had their guns removed by federal law...
What if our government made sharia law the new law in American schools and public life, would the same people then be so adamant of religious enforcement in schools?



The fact is, if a parent wants their child to be raised on Christian doctrine, they can teach it to their children, not expect public schools to do so...





Quoting Jedkins01:



Well, what exactly do you mean by "Put God back in the schools"?

I agree the that students should be allowed to pray read their Bible, or whatever they may practice in school, however, the government shouldn't take any sides. There are many reason why. I'm sure you may be aware of them. However, schools should really cut the stupid social programs that attempt to indoctrinate children with certain philosophies/world views, and instead bring back some sort of solid moral structure the most can agree on regardless of faith preference or lack there of.


But ultimately, what I mentioned above is much more minor in comparison to the role of proper parenting. People blame the government for everything, but it really all begins at home...


thats our problem Jedkins,using the argument about amendments, "freedoms", and what government shouldnt be able to do..when I was in elementary school, we had prayer, if you didnt want to participate it was something as simple as having your parent write you a note and you being excused during that time..no one was scrutinized if they choose the latter..during that time, I dont remember any mass school shootings while growing up..since then we tried it the political "correct" way in removing prayer out of school and we have seen the consequences of those actions, I would be interested to know how many mass school shootings we have had since prayer was removed from school and how many mass school shootings we had when prayer was allowed in school..Im pretty certain the numbers after prayer was removed will far outnumber those when we had prayer in school..
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When guns are outlawed, the psychos of this world will find another way to wreak carnage. Drive an SUV thru a pee wee football game or a backpack full of molotov cocktails into a daycare for a couple of grim examples. What do we do when those type of attacks occur? Outlaw automobiles or bottles? Mental health is the problem. Responsible adults can own firearms responsibly. The psychos' mom was irresponsible by not having her guns in a gun safe where the fruitcake couldn't get to them.
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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


"Cyclone moves north

WeatherWatch has reported Evan has been upgraded to a top-of-the-scale category five cyclone, but the Fiji Meteorological Office has said that Evan remained a category four cyclone, The Fiji Times has reported.

At 11.30am the MET Office said it had not yet reached the top-of-the-scale category five cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Evan was still moving north.

This morning it had reached the northern island of Vanua Levu as its winds buffered populated areas, WeatherWatch.co.nz said."

North???


We often use more than once source and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre operated by the US Government is estimating Evan is now a category 5 cyclone".

However a strong category 4 cyclone is similar to a weak category 5. "People shouldn't get hooked on the category status, as regardless this is a major cyclone at the highest end".
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Quoting yonzabam:
Good article here on cyclone Evan from the New Zealand Herald. Apparently, the eye of the storm passed over the Wallis and Futuna islands, which lie between Samoa and Fiji. There are 1,500 inhabitants on the islands, and all contact has been lost with them. There's nowhere to run on these small, low lying islands.

Link

I think Gro asked what islands they were a few days ago.

It's good to read the emergency services have taken Evan's passing serious and made sure the residents took Evan's passing serious by enforcing a curfew and locking down main towns and highways.

Highway lockdown

By ILAITIA TURAGABECI
Monday, December 17, 2012

Update: 1:05AM THE Queen's Road in the Sigatoka area is closed as the town locks down to brace against passing Cyclone Evan.
With Rakiraki under water, the Valley Road towards Fiji's Salad Bowl and Kavanagasau Road on the other side of the Sigatoka River also closed to traffic, police said they were restricting movement to ensure the safety of the public.
The entire Western Division from Korolevu to Rakiraki is without power.
While the Fiji Electricity Authority has started restoration works for the Northern Division, it assured that power to the Central Division would be normalised later today, weather permitting.
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Quoting yonzabam:
Good article here on cyclone Evan from the New Zealand Herald. Apparently, the eye of the storm passed over the Wallis and Futuna islands, which lie between Samoa and Fiji. There are 1,500 inhabitants on the islands, and all contact has been lost with them. There's nowhere to run on these small, low lying islands.

Link


"Cyclone moves north

WeatherWatch has reported Evan has been upgraded to a top-of-the-scale category five cyclone, but the Fiji Meteorological Office has said that Evan remained a category four cyclone, The Fiji Times has reported.

At 11.30am the MET Office said it had not yet reached the top-of-the-scale category five cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Evan was still moving north.

This morning it had reached the northern island of Vanua Levu as its winds buffered populated areas, WeatherWatch.co.nz said."

North???
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 695
Good article here on cyclone Evan from the New Zealand Herald. Apparently, the eye of the storm passed over the Wallis and Futuna islands, which lie between Samoa and Fiji. There are 1,500 inhabitants on the islands, and all contact has been lost with them. There's nowhere to run on these small, low lying islands.

Link
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I'm only going to point out this in this gun control discussion.

What this fool did in CT makes it harder for anyone who does use firearms for his/her enjoyment or work. Using guns for entertainment or work requires massive concentration and responsibility as their misuse is so damaging and permanent. Anyone who doesn't have those qualities should forgo any association with firearms and other deadly weapons. I've left hunting camps after watching dangerous displays of ignorance with weapons. We all have a responsibility to hold those using firearms and other deadly weapons for any purpose, including our police and military forces, to a higher standard. Police forces around our country kill innocents, including children, far too often. And our military and mercenaries, need I go there?

Finally, our leaders should lead.

Our Presidents Bush and Obama have ordered over 300 drone strikes in Pakistan alone killing many more children than did the crazy we are now discussing. The parents of those children have a certain right to think we are an entire country gone mad and I sure couldn't argue with them. Our present President would make his statements on the CN massacre much more powerful if he corrected his tendency of using violence and killing to solve his inadequacies and problems. He can end the drone wars today.

He can also end the ground wars and the economic wars he controls which are killing innocent children around the globe.

Sorry if I've offended anyone.
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Everyone have a great Monday! Aussie, if you're on, hope you have a great Tuesday. My classroom is waiting for me, kids coming soon for a fun week before Christmas. Wish it was colder so I could wear my fun Christmas sweaters.
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WINTER STORM DRACO FOR THE NORTHWEST
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
i GUESS THE WEATHER IS OF NO CONCERN ONCE AGAIN IN HERE
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Quoting ncstorm:
The below needs to happen in order to prevent terrible tragedies of mass murderers shooting in public places

1. Hands On Parenting..stop leaving TV, internet and video games to raise our children
2. Media Sensationlism of murderers, violence, etc needs to END!!
3. Violence commonly depicted and easily accessible on Television, Movies,Internet and Video Games has to stop
4. STRICTER Gun Control Laws
5. Remove sale of weapons from Walmart and any other family shopping center
6. PUT GOD BACK IN THE SCHOOLS

Good night and please remember the families, the little angels, the brave teachers, first responders in your prayers..








I agree with all but 6. Schools and government have never "taken God from schools", because they have never banned students from praying if they so wish. It is not up to government or school to determine what religeous practice we choose. It is up to individuals to decide.

It's a wet morning of the nasty kind, 41 degrees and cold showers. Have a great day everyone!
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I admit, I'm rarely concerned about anything at all. However, these recent shootings have me thinking twice about taking the nature walks I sometimes take. I am cognizant (read: wise) enough not to attempt something like this until things calm down. It's a pretty common motif for crime to sharply increase following a particularly large atrocity like the one in Connecticut. In fact, I wholeheartedly expect even more shootings on the 21st because of the bat**** radicals who actually believe the end of the world is upon us.



CEDAR LAKE, Ind. (AP) — A northern Indiana man who allegedly threatened to "kill as many people as he could" at an elementary school near his home was arrested by officers who later found 47 guns and ammunition hidden throughout his home.

Von. I. Meyer, 60, of Cedar Lake, was arrested Saturday after prosecutors filed formal charges of felony intimidation, domestic battery and resisting law enforcement against him. He was being held Sunday without bond at the Lake County Jail, pending an initial hearing on the charges, police said in a statement.

Cedar Lake Police officers were called to Meyer's home early Friday after he allegedly threatened to set his wife on fire once she fell asleep, the statement said.

Meyer also threatened to enter nearby Jane Ball Elementary School "and kill as many people as he could before police could stop him," the statement said. Meyer's home is less than 1,000 feet from the school and linked to it by trails and paths through a wooded area, police said.

Police said in the statement that they notified school officials and boosted security at all area schools Friday — the same day 26 people, including 20 students, were shot and killed at an elementary school in Newtown, Conn.

On Saturday, officers served warrants at Meyer's home and arrested him. The statement said police had learned that Meyer kept many weapons in his older, two-story home and "is a known member of the Invaders Motorcycle Gang."

Officers searched the home, finding 47 guns and ammunition worth more than $100,000 hidden throughout the home. Many of the weapons were collector's guns.

Cedar Lake is about 45 miles southeast of Chicago.

A dispatcher with Cedar Lake Police said that the police chief was not available for interviews until Monday.

Lake County police spokeswoman Patti Van Til said Sunday that a SWAT team from the department assisted in serving Saturday's warrants.
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Good Morning Folks........................
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Tampa Bay 7-day....
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wow Orlando is socked in alright zero visability...
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i know this will irk some of you , but i wish to point out a couple of things . the conn. shoot had issues(duh) . Somebody around him knew that. You dont just shoot 28 people , killing all but one, withsome training with the weapon. The gun didnt train him. Someone did. Someone also knew he was capable of this and kept silent . Banning guns wont make people more responsible .The guns he used were not his . They were registered to his mom , whom he killed . i.e. he didnt legally own them. so banning legal gun ownership means what? a person who legally owns a gun cant commit mass murder? you have know idea of how many illegal guns are out there . how many people die from drugs ? smoking? cars? hows the ban on drugs working? pretty good considering the gateway pot just got legalized in some states! Americans dont have tha stomach to enforce the laws they have, until its fashionable.
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Good morning, everyone, Evening, Aussie. A balmy 62 degrees here this morning. Supposed to be seventy later on, guess my Christmas sweaters will have to stay home. I think I get to wear one again on Thursday. They're too heavy for this warm weather.
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Quoting indianrivguy:
What is sad Kori, is the anti gun lobby using the deaths of these innocent children to promote a political agenda.
We've heard that claim often over the past few days, as we did after Aurora, and after Columbine before that, and so on. But it's a hollow claim, if you ask me, and in my opinion about as logical as complaining about the food safety lobby "using" deaths from botulism and salmonella to promote a political agenda.

At any rate, what is the "anti gun" lobby? I personally prefer to call it the "parents who believe their children have a right to go to school or the movie theater and not be slaughtered by a lunatic brandishing weapons designed solely for soldiers killing enemy combatants on the battlefield" lobby.
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Tom, I would love to discuss this further, I think perhaps you have misunderstood my comment. At any rate, I must leave to go to work, I will look this up when I get home.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2614
If anything, our world was safer before guns.

Making stronger, more lethal killing machines has only put us in more danger...it doesn't make us any safer from the "bad guys". We should strive toward stricter gun laws which make it harder to posses firearms, and also limit the strength of the firearms which we can posses.
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Quoting indianrivguy:
Quoting KoritheMan:

What is sad Kori, is the anti gun lobby using the deaths of these innocent children to promote a political agenda.
???

The intention of gun laws is to prevent the death of innocent people.

I really hope this post was a joke. I've never really debated gun control before, but this blog has been eye opening. Amazing how many gun supporters there are. It's even more amazing how many people seem to think more guns are the answer.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Exactly. Outright banning them is just as stupid as clamoring for more guns. Tighter restrictions, however, are definitely necessary.


What is sad Kori, is the anti gun lobby using the deaths of these innocent children to promote a political agenda.

Good morning everyone, good evening Mr. Aussie!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2614
Quoting KoritheMan:

Exactly. Outright banning them is just as stupid as clamoring for more guns. Tighter restrictions, however, are definitely necessary.
Personally, I wouldn't mind if they were completely banned. I have no use for them, and I think the vast majority of people also have absolutely no use for guns as well.

Unfortunately, guns will never be completely banned, but I seriously hope gun laws or tightened up big time.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Tighter restrictions, however, are definitely necessary.


Indeed. Right or wrong, you have a legal right to bear arms. But that doesn't mean any arms ever conceived, no restrictions. Aka, I think someone might have a problem wif you suddenly announced, "Hey, everyone, check out my shining new 12MT thermonuclear warhead and ICBM delivery system that I bought from a couple Russian arms smugglers back in '94!" And I don't think a "I have a right to bear arms!" argument would hold up when the government comes and takes it away.

The right to bear arms was established back when mass killings with guns was not possible. It was never meant to sanction tools that enabled mass killings because such tools did not exist. And the earlier court rulings clearly showed that limiting the right to bear arms was seen as constitutional. There were five major rulings - 1875, 1886, 1939, 2008, and 2010. Only the rulings in the 2000s came down against gun reglation. All three of the older rulings ruled that the states could ban basically whatever the heck they wanted (it was only the feds that were limited), and the third ruling (US v. Miller) ruled that the Feds could likewise ban weapons that don't have "some reasonable relationship to the preservation or efficiency of a well regulated militia" (in that case, it was about a federal bill banning fully automatic weapons and sawed-off/short-barrel shotguns). Ironically, Jack Miller (a bank robber) was found shot to death before the trial.

The founders of the US lived in a world where the threat of the US falling to an invasion was very real; where there was little difference between the military weapons of the day and hunting weapons of the day; and where none of the weapons of the day posed a realistic threat of mass murder. None of this is applicable to the modern United States. This whole concept of "everyone carrying concealed guns to stop the crazies with their concealed guns" that seems to be a passion of the right in America wasn't even conceivable to the drafters of the constitution. It was certainly not their intention.
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Quoting KarenRei:


But really, of course, the gun control elephant in the room is the most obvious step. No, you can't make it impossible for a nut to get deadly weapons. But you sure as heck don't have to make it so easy.

Exactly. Outright banning them is just as stupid as clamoring for more guns. Tighter restrictions, however, are definitely necessary.
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Cyclone Evan:

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The storm still lingers around there
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting maeko:
I'm not used to looking at Pacific Cyclones and am confusing myself the more I look at it. Here on the East Coast, we say a place is getting 'the bad side' if the 'cane is passing just to the SW b/c they are getting the NE Quad. My friend is in Suva City. Is Suva getting the 'bad-side'?


Suva safe
By TORIKA TOKALAU
Monday, December 17, 2012

Update: 1:04PM WHILE Tropical Cyclone Evan continues to batter the Fiji group, no reports of damage has been reported in the central and eastern divisions.

Strong winds were experienced in the capital and there was little movement.

Police continued to reiterate their warning for people to take precautions and not endanger their lives.
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Sugar City war zone
By MARGARET WISE
Monday, December 17, 2012

Update: 5:26PM LAUTOKA City resembles a war zone.

The sugar city renowned for open parks and greenery is littered with felled trees and debris.

Broken power lines lay strewn across roadways, evidence of the ferocity of Cyclone Evan that continues to batter the once green city.

_______________________________________________

Waidalice River rising
By ROPATE VALEMEI
Monday, December 17, 2012

Update: 6:11PM THE Waidalice River in Korovou, Tailevu, is rising and people are evacuating to their nearest evacuation centres.

Tailevu advisory councillor Jagdish Narayan said 85 families were evacuated to three evacuation centres in Korovou.

Mr Narayan said they had been experiencing strong wind and heavy rain from this afternoon.

He urged people in the area to evacuate as the river was rising rapidly.
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Evan is most likely the worse cyclone to hit Fiji.

I can't find any other major cyclones that have significantly impacted Viti Levu before Evan.

Like Tomas in 2010, most of the cyclones hit Vanua Levu
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Quoting wildheron:
the reports i read said the principal and school psychologist did run toward the shooter in an attempt to stop him. guns in school may not be the answer (for fear a student would gain access to them) but what about mace? or pepper spray? (bear spray works from several feet away) i don't doubt the principal would have hesitated to mace the shooter, and things may have turned out a lot different. i don't have children (only 4-legged variety) and i can't begin to imagine the pain of their losses.

on a weather note, another above average temp day here in central illinois. may have a chance for snow on thurs/fri.

back to lurking...........


Yeah, concerning pepper spray, I don't think a blind shooter would be very effective. Should be pretty easy to disarm. Just have to not get shot between the time of first firing and the time when he loses his vision. A taser would be another nonlethal option.

But really, of course, the gun control elephant in the room is the most obvious step. No, you can't make it impossible for a nut to get deadly weapons. But you sure as heck don't have to make it so easy. And the markets are flooded with such weapons because so many are produced in the US because the US makes it so easy to buy them. It's not like these guns are for the most part being produced in Canada and then imported to the US, and if they became illegal in the US, that Canadians would just secretly sneak them across the border. They're being produced in the US, for the US market.

And as for the "God in schools" thing, why are all of these other relatively "godless" (by US standards) nations not flooded with such mass murderers? Does God only apply that standard to the US? Heck, the last major shooting in such a non-US first world nation, the Breivik killings in Norway, were done *by* a Christian radical. Breivik's stated goals: "I believe Europe should strive for: A cultural conservative approach where monoculturalism, moral, the nuclear family, a free market, support for Israel and our Christian cousins of the east, law and order and Christendom itself must be central aspects (unlike now)." Apart for the whole "killing lots of people to further his political objectives" thing, his personal life philosophy is an almost carbon copy of that of the US Republican base. He stated that he planned to pray to God for help during his attacks, and attended what he called a "final Martyr's Mass".

On a weather note myself, it's a nice clear "day" here in Reykjavk, right about freezing. "Day" is in quotes because the sun won't rise until 11:20. ;) We'll hit nautical twilight (aka, you can see the horizon) in about 15 minutes (8:53) and then civil twilight (aka, you can see what the heck you're doing outside, although everything is dim and washed out) at 10:00.
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295. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
18:00 PM FST December 17 2012
===================================

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MAMANUCA GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM LAUTOKA TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS. (Fiji/Rotuma)

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE INTERIOR OF VITI LEVU, YASAWA GROUP AND VATULELE. (Fiji/Rotuma)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS. (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (945 hPa) located at 17.9S 177.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots. Position good based on radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Ragged eye discernible in infrared imagery. Eye well define in Nadi radar imagery. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center W surround yielding DT=5.0, MET=6.0, PT=5.5. Final Dvorak T number based on PT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/S0.0/24 HRS

CI held up due to initial weakening of cyclone through land interaction.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 19.0S 176.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 20.3S 176.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 22.8S 176.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46603
I admit, I'm rarely concerned about anything at all. However, these recent shootings have me thinking twice about taking the nature walks I sometimes take. I am cognizant (read: wise) enough not to attempt something like this until things calm down. It's a pretty common motif for crime to sharply increase following a particularly large atrocity like the one in Connecticut. In fact, I wholeheartedly expect even more shootings on the 21st because of the bat**** radicals who actually believe the end of the world is upon us.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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