Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Evan bearing down on Fiji
Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Evan is closing in on the main island of Fiji, where hurricane warnings are flying and torrential rains are already falling. Radar images from Fiji show that the large eye of Evan is just north of the two main islands of Fiji. The expected southwesterly track of the storm should keep the calm of the eye just north of Fiji, though the southern eyewall may brush the north coast of the main island of Vici Leva, affecting the tourist town of Nadi. Evan has intensified today to its strongest level yet, with 120 mph winds, and satellite loops show that the storm remains well-organized, with plenty of intense heavy thunderstorm activity and a prominent eye. Evan will be in a region with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots as it approaches Fiji, and could intensify by another 5 - 10 mph before making its closest pass to the islands later today. According to NOAA's Coastal Services Center, Evan is the strongest tropical cyclone to threaten Fiji since Tropical Cyclone Daman of December 2007. Dating back to 1972, twelve Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclones have threatened the Republic of Fiji.
Figure 1. Radar image from the Fiji weather service showing the large eye of Tropical Cyclone Evan just north of Fiji.
Severe damage in Samoa from Evan
Evan made landfall on the north shore of Samoa near the capital of Apia on Thursday as a Category 1 cyclone with 90 mph winds, and intensified into a Category 3 storm with 115 mph after the eye wandered back offshore late Thursday. Media reports indicate that Evan killed four and has left eight missing on Samoa, and left at least 4,000 homeless. The main power plant for Samoa was destroyed, and it is expected that power will be out to almost all of Samoa for at least ten more days. Evan was one of Samoa's most destructive tropical cyclones on record, as discussed by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.
Figure 2. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Evan nearing Fiji at 01:35 UTC December 16, 2012. At the time, Evan was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
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It is a slippery slope. Take away the rights to own one type of item, and it is easy to expand it to other items in the same category.
Improving the Tropical Cyclone Climate Record
16 December 2012
Guest Commentary by Christopher Hennon (UNC Asheville)
Get involved in a new citizen science project at CycloneCenter.org.
The poor quality of the tropical cyclone (TC) data record provides severe constraints on the ability of climate scientists to: a) determine to what degree TCs have responded to shifts in climate, b) evaluate theories on how TCs will respond to climate change in the future. The root cause for the poor data is the severity of the TC conditions (e.g. high wind, rough seas) and the remoteness of these storms – the vast majority of which form and remain well away from most observing networks. Thus, most TCs are not observed directly and those that are (with buoys, aircraft reconnaissance, ships) are often not sampled sufficiently (see the IBTrACS, (Knapp et al., 2010)).
...
A new crowd sourcing project, called Cyclone Center, embraces the human element by enabling the public to perform a simplified version of the Dvorak Technique to analyze historical global tropical cyclone (TC) intensities (Hennon, 2012). Cyclone Center’s primary goal is to resolve discrepancies in the recent global TC record arising principally from inconsistent development of tropical cyclone intensity data. The Cyclone Center technique standardizes the classification procedure by condensing the Dvorak Technique to a few simple questions that can be answered by global, nonprofessional users.
One of the main advantages of this approach is the inclusion of thousands of users, instead of the 1-3 who would normally classify a TC image. This allows the computation of measures of uncertainty in addition to a mean intensity. Nearly 300,000 images, encompassing all global TCs that formed from 1978-2009, will be classified 30 times each – a feat that would take a dedicated team of twenty Dvorak-trained experts about 12 years to complete. Citizen scientists have already performed over 100,000 classifications since the project launch in September. Once the project is complete, a new dataset of global TC tracks and intensities will be made available to the community to contribute to our efforts to provide the best possible TC data record.
Interested readers are encouraged to learn more about and participate in the project at the cyclonecenter.org website (there are some FAQ on the project blog). The CycloneCenter project is a collaboration between the Citizen Science Alliance, NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), University of North Carolina at Asheville, and the Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites (CICS) – North Carolina.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/201 2/12/improving-the-tropical-cyclone-climate-record /
I wholeheartedly agree. Anyone who is willing to commit such an evil act as what happened on Friday would do so regardless of the weapon. Hypothetically even if we as a country banned firearms outright, criminals would find another method of mass casualty (pipe bombs, homemade destructive devices etc.) As for gun control I believe this country needs to institute a better vetting & registration process for individuals who would like to responsibly own firearms. This also includes ammunition as well as severe penalties for any crimes commissioned with the use of a gun. I see both sides of the gun control issue, however. After all who wouldn%u2019t as we saw innocent children snuffed out at the hands of a nut job with a military style weapon. I%u2019m personally a gun owner and I ensure that my guns are locked away when not in use and it would be my liability if such guns were used to commit such crimes. My view and opinion, however, is that I like the thought of the %u201Cgood guys%u201D being able to defend themselves and their families from such criminals as I%u2019m pretty sure that anyone who%u2019s willing to commit such a crime is probably not going to care enough about any gun laws let alone his/her life to not possess a weapon. With that said you come into my house and try to hurt me or my family and you will be on the business end of my 12 gauge. The truth is that regardless of control measures, what we must do is secure our schools better. The status quo is not working. I%u2019d rather not wait around for Washington and its pencil pushers to figure out what to do with GC when our most precious resources can be slaughtered like lambs. Everyone regardless of political stance probably agrees with that. Whether that means posting two armed security guards or cops on campuses at all times so be it. Also I%u2019d like to know that some Tom Dick and Harry can%u2019t just walk into my kid%u2019s elementary school, so if this means locking down and checking in every visitor or parent that accesses the school then so be it. We live in a different time and have seen that terrorism isn%u2019t always in the form of a hijacked plane or originates from overseas.
The idealist pines for a way to get rid of weapons. A realist realizes that if you disarm the law-abiding, that puts them at a distinct disadvantage. Chicago has very strict gun laws and a lot of firearms murders. Something else is the problem (hint, also reference what happened in Chicago the last time we created a massive black market, back in the 1920s).
LOL.
My wife asked me about what happened, since I read the news a lot, and am usually well informed. (I had not said anything about it, because it upsets me so much) When I started explaining what happened, she actually had to calm me down, because I was getting so angry. In over 3-1/2 years of knowing me, she had never seen me so visibly angry at a situation.
There are a few things in the world that completely set me off, and raise my blood pressure by 20-30 points. This is one of them. The lack of parenting skills involved with so many of our children is an absolute travesty. Combine that with people trying to score political points during a tragedy, and people trying to force their opinions on others... bad things happen to my level of irritation.
So people are going to brew up bathtub-automatic rifles with extended clips and distribute them en masse as common and as effective as today? Is that the concept here?
Please explain to me why America is one of the only first world country that this won't work for, since almost everyone else does this already without problems.
I don't see arguing... I see passionate opinions, but no yelling or arguing. Yet.
Right on target, great post!
The UK's murder rate is a little over a quarter that of the US's (1,2 vs. 4,2 per 100.000 per year). So can I then take your post as support of gun control, since you chose the UK example yourself?
We're about a century from that being a realistic option for your average person. Nobody, anywhere has ever printed a barrel, with any kind of machine, no matter how expensive (let alone consumer-grade - consumer grade 3d printers being things that almost nobody has anyway). They've printed a stock, but well, gee, color me unimpressed. There's a world of difference between laying out little crude globs of plastic into a shape and automatically machining precision steel components.
No, the word for a person who thinks that having random civilians add to a hail of gunfire and having everyone who experiences any moment of rage have a gun on hand to act on it will decrease the death rate is "idiot".
Why Chicago in particular? NYC's gun laws are more onerous than Chicago's, but they have half the murder rate. And SCOTUS crippled most city gun laws anyway.
FWIW in a close combat area where killing everyone is the main point. I will take a 12 gauge pump with a drum magazine, because if it jams I can easily clear it. Is a 12 gauge shotgun an assault weapon. I can shoot my 870 pump pretty much just as fast as my 1187 auto.
One more thing a .223 cal is made to wound on the battlefield and not kill as much, Reason a wounded soldier is a much bigger problem for the enemy than a dead one.
Without problems? Lots of countries have gun control, the level of problems that occur vary greatly. One of the biggest issues you are going to have in the U.S. is a huge portion of the population is unwilling to be disarmed and already highly armed.
"...best estimates are about 45% or 52 million of American households owning 260 million guns."
Most other countries with successful gun bans have had much lower gun ownership numbers.
The other issue is the design and history of the American government. The right to own guns is integrated in to our culture.
People brewed up liquor and distributed it during prohibition very well. Meth, cocaine, and weed is plentiful and supports a huge criminal black market. A manufactured gun black market seems like it would prosper.
Second, it will be easy to make your own high-capacity clips with 3-D printing and that seems to be the main issue you have. So, as another person noted, when your approach fails, it's down the slippery slope to eventual gun confiscation because none of it would work to the desired intent.
Third, please point me to articles detailing where legal CCW holders went into a fit of rage and sent a hail of bullets into crowds, or engaged in a wanton shootout. Hint, you will find very few. You WILL find plenty of articles about CCW holders stopping violent crime, often at the direct benefit of strangers in public.
Fourth, Chicago still has the most strict gun laws in the country and is making every attempt to dodge application of Heller. Yet the homicide rate there skyrockets.
And fifth, a really nice job of dodging the root cause of that spiking Chicago violence - drug-related shootings. Hint - those gang-bangers won't obey your gun-control laws.
I'm tracking T.C. Evan and recording its positions on Google Earth. I was linking images from this site's storm tracking to the poistion on Google Earth (initially), then from the NOAA 'Floater' site until I understood that the images at these locations aren't stored.
Consequently, the image I linked to a position a week ago, shows today's image.
Is there a site that archives sat images that can be linked to and expect they'll be there in a year?
Precisely how does one keep God out of school?
It ain't as if ya can go the store and buy a can of Raid God-Repellent.
And compared to the RedSea, parting fences don't seem all that much of a problem.
HOUSANDS of Australian tourists are stranded in Fiji after tropical cyclone Evan lashed the islands yesterday, destroying villages and leaving behind a trail of destruction that is estimated to cost the Pacific Island nation billions of dollars.
More than 2100 Australians will wake up in Nadi, Lautoka and Suva this morning after a wild night bunkered down in their hotel rooms as wind gusts reached 270km/h, bringing down trees on to homes and ripping roofs off.
Fijian tourism officials last night reported that 2700 holidaymakers had fled their resorts and moved to hotels closer to Nadi airport.
The Fijian government ordered 400 troops to the worst hit areas and officials warned villagers to brace themselves for a 3m tidal surge overnight.
Cyclone Evan tore through Fiji about 2.30pm (AEST) yesterday with the northern town of Lautoka, Fiji's second biggest city, hammered by winds of up to 155km/h, with houses and shops being blown away and buildings flooded. Locals described the scene as resembling a "war zone".
Foreign Minister Bob Carr last night said there were 2100 Australians - including 680 schoolies - registered with the government as currently being in Fiji, with many more believed to be unregistered.
Thousands more Australian families and couples who have booked holidays in Fiji over Christmas have been warned to check the fine print in their travel insurance policies if they need to cancel.
Insurance Council of Australia CEO Rob Whelan said most policies would cover cancellations caused by the cyclone, "depending on the circumstances".
"Anyone heading to the South Pacific soon, and anyone stranded due to the cyclone, should check their travel insurance policies to determine if their provider will compensate them for flight and accommodation cancellations," Mr Whelan said.
Australian Jarrod Harman, who is holidaying at the Sheraton on Denarau Island with his partner, told The Daily Telegraph yesterday all the surrounding islands had been evacuated in the morning. They were told to assemble in the ballroom as the cyclone hit.
"It's pretty bad outside. Extremely windy at the moment and it's supposed to get even worse," he said.
Former Australian rugby league player Petero Civoniceva said his grandmother was living in Suva on the southern side of the island.
"She's a tough lady and I'm sure she'll be all right," the NRL star said.
"(Cyclones) are part and parcel with living in Fiji. Unfortunately it happens over there and there's nothing you can really do except wait until it's over."
A Defence spokeswoman last night said AusAID had been assigned as the lead agency in the relief effort.
Local residents said Evan's damage bill could exceed Cyclone Bebe, which killed 18 people, and Cyclone Kina that killed 23 people in 1993.
Cyclone Evan last week left a trail of destruction in Samoa's capital Apia, killing four islanders.
The Fijian government last night warned residents to avoid flooded streets and told government workers to stay away from work today. Evacuation centres were set up at Raiwaqa and Navua and communications in Levuka and Kadavu were cut off.
Local media reported that more than 3000 locals were staying in evacuation centres with the Navua River expected to break its banks.
In a message posted online, the staff at Lolomas Castaway Island, off the coast of Nadi,- said they were having a difficult time as the cyclone passed. They were unable to be reached when The Daily Telegraph rang yesterday.
"So far our staff and management are safe however our little island paradise has been battered by very strong winds estimated to be up to 280km/h," they wrote.
Geelong newlyweds Ben and Nicole Gargan were among hundreds of Australian tourists in lockdown. They are in the final days of their honeymoon on Denarau Island, just a few hundred metres off the mainland.
"They were meant to fly out on Tuesday, so we're not sure when they will be leaving," said Ben's brother Troy.
In the western parts of the country, all hotels have been advised to store their own water for their own safety until operations normalise.
Geoff Chambers, Nathan Klein and Carleen Frost
News Limited Network
December 18, 2012 12:00AM
GFS shows a good cool down. I think the ECMWF has been running cooler.
More here.
Saw Shaun put out a new blog on this storm hitting on the west coast too..
Further, Israel teachers carry guns: http://gunowners.org/op0218.htm Isreali and
http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/region/israel
Consider the number of years semiautomatic rifles have been available and sold and the number of high capacity magazines sold in this time and one thinks that banning them now will prevent further violence? Really? Give this more factual thought (data driven, not cherry picked) rather than taking an emotional view and see what conclusions one comes to regardless of their emotions (if one can do that). Try not to generalize and be more specific. Google some of your questions and see the thousands of points of view and data, some pro, some con, and come up with a rational view of the situation. You might be surprised.
The weather here in NEO is relatively warm for this time of the year (43 deg) but cloudy and dreary.
Yep, stands to reason. Pass a law agin murder, and the next thing ya know it'll be illegal to breathe.
Major Winter Storm Slams Pacific Northwest
A major Winter storm is slamming the Pacific Northwest, where up to 3 feet of new snow is possible for the higher elevations of Washington and Oregon through Monday.
At 6 a.m., PGE reported 65 outages in Clackamas County, affecting nearly 5,000 customers. The largest outages were in the Eagle Creek, Damascus, Sandy and Boring areas. All of the outages were due to high winds blowing trees and limbs onto wires.
"Update: 10:36PM POLICE officers in all divisions have restricted the movement of people in and out of main towns and cities as Tropical Cyclone Evan hits the country.
"They will advise those who don't need to be in town or city at this time to go back to their homes and limit movement as much as possible.
"Commissioner Western Commander Joeli Cawaki has placed a restriction order for urban areas in the West with effect from 7pm today to 6am tomorrow, a police statement said.
"The police statement said it was also being done to protect businesses from those who may want to take advantage of the situation."
It is 4:37 AM there now so the curfew has a bit over an hour to go.
Looks like I'm in for some stormy wearther this am..
1 KM Visible Satellite for Alabama
1 KM Visible Satellite for Mississippi
For Orlando almost in the 40s (lower 50s)..that's the 850mb so figure a little warmer at the surface.
Clackamas mall shooter faced shopper with concealed weapon permit
PORTLAND -- Nick Meli is emotionally drained. The 22-year-old was at Clackamas Town Center with a friend and her baby when a masked man opened fire.
"I heard three shots and turned and looked at Casey and said, 'are you serious?,'" he said.
The friend and baby hit the floor. Meli, who has a concealed carry permit, positioned himself behind a pillar.
"He was working on his rifle," said Meli. "He kept pulling the charging handle and hitting the side."
The break in gunfire allowed Meli to pull out his own gun, but he never took his eyes off the shooter.
"As I was going down to pull, I saw someone in the back of the Charlotte move, and I knew if I fired and missed, I could hit them," he said.
Meli took cover inside a nearby store. He never pulled the trigger. He stands by that decision.
"I'm not beating myself up cause I didn't shoot him," said Meli. "I know after he saw me, I think the last shot he fired was the one he used on himself."
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So Meli did not randomly unleash fire, he was aware of other persons in the field of fire.
But it looks like the perp knew he could not continue shooting because he had a gun trained on him.
And two people died, not dozens.
BBL..
Saturday
Man fires some 50 shots at Calif. mall parking lot
Sunday
San Antonio Movie Theater Shooting: Gunman Shoots 1 In Theater Parking Lot
Don't spaz, Taz.
Cars are for transporting people and things.
Bottles are for transporting and holding liquids.
Guns are for destroying living flesh and killing living things.
See the difference?
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