Category 2 Evan batters Samoa, killing two

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:30 PM GMT on December 13, 2012

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The Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season is beginning to heat up. Category 2 Tropical Cyclone Evan is pounding Samoa and American Samoa with heavy rains and high winds, after making landfall earlier today on the north shore of Samoa near the capital of Apia. At landfall, Evan had a small 10-mile diameter eye and top winds of 90 mph, but has since intensified to 105 mph winds. Media reports indicate that Evan has killed two, and brought a 12 - 15' storm surge, heavy rains, and severe damage to the island nation. Satellite loops show a well-organized storm with a tiny 7-mile diameter eye. Evan has plenty of intense heavy thunderstorm activity near its core, solid upper-level outflow, and is in an area with weak steering currents. Evan is expected to meander over Samoa until about 18 UTC on Friday, when a ridge of high pressure will build in and force the cyclone to the west. The storm will be in a region with light wind shear and very warm ocean waters that extend to great depth, and could intensify into a Category 3 or 4 cyclone by this weekend. On Sunday, when the ECMWF model predicts that Evan will be near Fiji, the storm will encounter increasing wind shear and should weaken.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Evan over Samoa at 01:05 UTC December 13, 2012. At the time, Evan was a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting eddye:
Lo 41°
RealFeel® 40°

Precipitation 0%

thats accuweather for sat night
well 40 is not too cold, wont be any freezing temps and daytime in the 60's is nice..remember its wintertime almost
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Lo 41°
RealFeel® 40°

Precipitation 0%

thats accuweather for sat night
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
another possible warning for next week..too soon to know..
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COASTAL STORM EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...BUT THE THREAT EXISTS FOR A HEAVY RAIN OR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...STRONG WIND...AND COASTAL FLOODING EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

$$
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Quoting aspectre:
Hey, WunderAdmin, why isn't Lee Grenci's featured blog listed&linked along with Dr.Masters' and the others'.
True it ain't been specificly tropical so far -- there's a new one since yesterday -- but then not all of Dr.Masters' blogs are about tropical weather.

Just change the list's heading from TropicalBlogs to FeaturedBlogs so folks who drop directly into the tropical blog can easily traverse over to any of Wunderground's featured bloggers.


Great Idea aspectre..wish I could double plus you on that.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6774
ok found one NWS that is hinting at a nor'easter next week..too soon to verify tho..things can change....................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
EXACT DETAILS...TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPES REMAIN VERY
UNCERTAIN.

THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. IT PROBABLY WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY
EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR A TIME. SOME MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND/OR MONDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION TYPES REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND ARE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT PROBABLY WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW. IF IT DOES END UP COLD ENOUGH...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR. THERE MAY EVEN BE A SMALL SWATH OF
ICE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

FINALLY...A STRONG COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY NEXT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO OUR REGION...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH
EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
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WunderAdmin, why isn't Lee Grenci's featured blog listed&linked along with Dr.Masters' and the others
True it ain't been specificly tropical so far -- there's a new one since yesterday's -- but then not all of Dr.Masters' blogs are about tropical weather.

Just change the list's heading from TropicalBlogs to FeaturedBlogs, and folks who drop directly into the main tropical blog can easily traverse over to any of Wunderground's featured bloggers.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/im age_loader.phtml?site=kmco

Interesting link, but when I plug in khgx it says site not available. Rats.
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Oh my goodness! Thanks for the update Dr. Masters!
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Quoting eddye:
largo fl can u translate that thing for me that scott put up
from the NWS here is the friday temps you want.......................Fri
Dec 21



AM Clouds / PM Sun

69°/53°

20 %
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largo fl can u translate that thing for me that scott put up
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
Thanks Doc..Samoa taking a serious beating.
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
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Anyone have the C.I. and T #'s graph of Evan?

called...CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1465
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scottlincoln can u tell me wat it says i dont know how 2 work that
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Quoting eddye:
thanks and can u guys tell me wat the mdoels are showing for orlando for next weekend because accuweather has 41 degrees for a low
Quoting eddye:
has 41 degrees and i wanna know wat the models show

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/im age_loader.phtml?site=kmco
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Evan is just stationary right on the islands and intensifying Ufffffff!!!!!!

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has 41 degrees and i wanna know wat the models show
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
thanks and can u guys tell me wat the mdoels are showing for orlando for next weekend because accuweather has 41 degrees for a low
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
Thank you Dr Masters. I like reading about tropical cyclones.
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Good morning all. I just stepped outside and discovered as Chillin said, the front has finally made it across the Keys. By the feel of the wind, I am going to be sorry I didn't bring my sweater to work. Though I don't expect too much of a temperature drop, working on the water and having that breeze, makes for chilly working conditions. I'm glad I am not working the beach!
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Quoting eddye:
where can i find the old blog from yesterday that jeff masters put up


Link
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1465
Thanks Doc ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
Quoting eddye:
where can i find the old blog from yesterday that jeff masters put up


To your right under "Previous Entries for 2012".
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
Evan continues to intensify... Thanks for the update Dr.



This may be close to a CAT 3 equivalent cyclone, if not already one.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1465
where can i find the old blog from yesterday that jeff masters put up
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
The front just made it through here. With all that weather out in the Gulf all week, not one drop of rain.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
Thanks Doc.I hope to see video of what is happening.Looks like 2012 will be ending funky with tropical cyclones this year.
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Wow! A stalled or slow moving intensifying storm is one of my worst fears for the Keys.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
Thank you Dr. Masters
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Thanks for the update Dr. Masters..
Hope Evan weakens and loss of life is minimal..



Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6774

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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