Category 2 Evan batters Samoa, killing two

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:30 PM GMT on December 13, 2012

The Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season is beginning to heat up. Category 2 Tropical Cyclone Evan is pounding Samoa and American Samoa with heavy rains and high winds, after making landfall earlier today on the north shore of Samoa near the capital of Apia. At landfall, Evan had a small 10-mile diameter eye and top winds of 90 mph, but has since intensified to 105 mph winds. Media reports indicate that Evan has killed two, and brought a 12 - 15' storm surge, heavy rains, and severe damage to the island nation. Satellite loops show a well-organized storm with a tiny 7-mile diameter eye. Evan has plenty of intense heavy thunderstorm activity near its core, solid upper-level outflow, and is in an area with weak steering currents. Evan is expected to meander over Samoa until about 18 UTC on Friday, when a ridge of high pressure will build in and force the cyclone to the west. The storm will be in a region with light wind shear and very warm ocean waters that extend to great depth, and could intensify into a Category 3 or 4 cyclone by this weekend. On Sunday, when the ECMWF model predicts that Evan will be near Fiji, the storm will encounter increasing wind shear and should weaken.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Evan over Samoa at 01:05 UTC December 13, 2012. At the time, Evan was a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting nymore:
Here is a poes (NOAA19) view of your Greenland storm



I <3 Mid-latitude cyclones...
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Very bad there in Samoa...

Meanwhile look at that huge 948 mb south of Greenland



Here is a poes (NOAA19) view of your Greenland storm

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Quoting barbamz:
Good evening. Here are some links to really not so good news from Samoa pounded by Evan.

Samoa reels as tropical cyclone strikes
Updated 7:53 AM Friday Dec 14, 2012

Cyclone Evan, which has already reportedly claimed the lives of three people, continues to batter Samoa today and is expected to intensify with winds up to 145km/h.

At least three people, two of them children, were reported to have been killed in the cyclone overnight.

Samoa's Meteorology Division this morning issued a special weather bulletin, predicting winds will pick up to between 120km/h and 145km/h within the next 6-12 hours.

More on New Zealand Herald


Telefone interview with bad news and video footage:
Samoa braces for second lashing from Cyclone Evan


Three reported dead as cyclone pounds Samoa
updated 08:57

Published: 5:48AM Friday December 14, 2012 Source: ONE News

Three people are feared to have been killed in Samoa as Cyclone Evan makes a u-turn over the country and heads back southwest after already causing massive damage.

The cyclone slammed into the west coast of Samoa yesterday before stalling over the islands, bringing torrential rains and intense winds that brought down trees and buildings, and causing widespread flooding.

The capital Apia has been largely evacuated, phones and electricity are out across much of the country, and tourists in many areas have fled inland from the coast.

It is believed two of the reported fatalities could have been children.

The storm is now a Category 3 tropical cyclone and is gathering force as it roars back to the southwest, where it is expected to pass over vulnerable parts of Tonga before arriving in Fiji on Sunday.

More with photos



Considering two are children, they were most likely carried away by surge or floods and diddnt know how to swim.
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Quoting aspectre:
119 FunnelVortex: Are idiots still complaining about winter storms being named?

Nope, why would I care about that?
I'm complaining cuz they won't do tricks like "Shake hands, Brutus" or "Roll over, Caesar".


What exactly do winter storms have to do with dogs?
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Good evening. Here are some links to really not so good news from Samoa pounded by Evan.

Samoa reels as tropical cyclone strikes
Updated 7:53 AM Friday Dec 14, 2012

Cyclone Evan, which has already reportedly claimed the lives of three people, continues to batter Samoa today and is expected to intensify with winds up to 145km/h.

At least three people, two of them children, were reported to have been killed in the cyclone overnight.

Samoa's Meteorology Division this morning issued a special weather bulletin, predicting winds will pick up to between 120km/h and 145km/h within the next 6-12 hours.

More on New Zealand Herald


Telefone interview with bad news and video footage:
Samoa braces for second lashing from Cyclone Evan


Three reported dead as cyclone pounds Samoa
updated 08:57

Published: 5:48AM Friday December 14, 2012 Source: ONE News

Three people are feared to have been killed in Samoa as Cyclone Evan makes a u-turn over the country and heads back southwest after already causing massive damage.

The cyclone slammed into the west coast of Samoa yesterday before stalling over the islands, bringing torrential rains and intense winds that brought down trees and buildings, and causing widespread flooding.

The capital Apia has been largely evacuated, phones and electricity are out across much of the country, and tourists in many areas have fled inland from the coast.

It is believed two of the reported fatalities could have been children.

The storm is now a Category 3 tropical cyclone and is gathering force as it roars back to the southwest, where it is expected to pass over vulnerable parts of Tonga before arriving in Fiji on Sunday.

More with photos

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119 FunnelVortex: Are idiots still complaining about winter storms being named?

Nope, why would I care about that?
I'm complaining cuz they won't do tricks like "Shake hands, Brutus" or "Roll over, Caesar".
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128. VR46L
Quoting hydrus:
Shows well here.


Umm thats put a dampener on my evening was getting used to 4 whole days of nice but frosty weather...Oh Well
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There is a low east of Evan with a well-defined circulation and thunderstorm activity.
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Blob south of Panama.
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EVAN A CAT 3.....
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2012 Geminid Meteor Shower

For any who might be interested, reposting here some of my comments posted earlier on LowerCal's Astronomy blog -

Wanted to check in with first hand report on those Geminids.. In fact I posted quick comment on Dr Jeff's blog last night, in between watching the Sandy Relief concert which was awesome in it's on right... although I doubt many readers there paid attention to the heads-up I tried to offer.

But WOW, was I surprised, went out for a casual look-see at 10:50 PM local CST and in 10 minutes I quickly saw 5 meteors, plus another 4 of those peripherals... Back / forth while concert was on, but later spent night out till near 3:30 AM. Had a gorgeous clear view with cold temps, lol, which turned out my coldest night yet here with 31F low, my 1st light freeze and frost covering everything... But man, was it worth it!

Altogether, clearly saw and counted 58 Geminids! Plus, another 40-50 of the peripheral faint short burst "maybes", lol, given how fleeting they are... Most were short duration, but saw one near 11:45 PM that was an incredible beauty, lasted over 2-3 seconds moving due E-W... My best viewing was looking up, facing west (or WNW).. as time went on early morn hrs, seemed most were roughly ranging between Pleiades and Orion... all traveling generally east to west (SE-NW to ENE-WSW)... Saw as many as 3 within one minute period, to stretches of 3-4 to as long as 7-10 minutes seeing none... LOL, but that's when those "maybes" also occurred, so... As for best viewing time, who knows, there was excellent activity as soon as went out to look!

IMHO, sure appears the 2012 Geminids will rank the best meteor shower of the year, at least in numbers / activity! And last night's view was definitely the most I've seen, highest count since the 2001 Leonids, which I now measure all others up against...

Hey, and all this occurring on the night BEFORE the predicted peak! If tonight's activity matches or exceeds what I saw last night it'll be a spectacle worth losing sleep over, again, lol!

Best wishes for clear skies,
Great viewing all!


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Quoting FunnelVortex:


Speaking of that. Are idiots still complaining about winter storms being named?


Name-calling?
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


Speaking of that. Are idiots still complaining about winter storms being named?


??? who?
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


Speaking of that. Are idiots still complaining about winter storms being named?


I think there were some smart ones too.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 936
Off topic:

Someone was asking for the science on this a couple weeks ago, came across this paper:

Consciousness and the double-slit interference pattern: Six experiments

Link
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


WINTER STORM NAMES - FIRST THREE


Speaking of that. Are idiots still complaining about winter storms being named?
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Very bad there in Samoa...

Meanwhile look at that huge 948 mb south of Greenland



Shows well here.
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Quoting kwgirl:
The air temp may be 90 but I bet your car is hotter in the direct sun than 90.


And here in TX in the summer you can add another "0" if its out in the sun for more than 20 mins :)
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Quoting bappit:

Interesting link, but when I plug in khgx it says site not available. Rats.


Try using the map link in the upper right. They are based on bufkit profiles, so if the site you entered doesn't have a bufkit profile available, it wont show data for that site.
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Quoting kwgirl:
Well this goes to show you that you can still learn something new. So windchill is basically for living things and not inanimate objects.


Exactly now you own it
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Well this goes to show you that you can still learn something new. So windchill is basically for living things and not inanimate objects. The temp records for Key West have been at the airport which is on the south side of the Island near the water. It must be warmer on that side of the island to account for the lack of 32 degrees and my sister telling she had to scrape ice. I guess you can't argue with "official" records. However, in my mind they are suspect. My sister would never lie to me!LOL
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Quoting kwgirl:
That's my point. My sister has lived in the cold North and knows what she is talking about. She did say it was a thin film, but it was ice. So the temps had to dip down enough for the ice to freeze. That's why I always thought it had to be the wind to cause that.



Well the weather service has no record of temps cold enough to due so. If it was a calm clear night, I could believe that it was locally cold enough for a frost as temperatures can vary dramatically over short distances on calm cold nights. However, although not impossible it would have taken ideal radiational cooling to cause that.

But from what you told me, it was the wind that she said caused it. I'm really not trying to be harsh, just stating the nature of the physics involved in this process, either she doesn't know what she is talking about, or she just made a mistake recalling the story to you.

Sorry if it feels like I'm arguing, I don't want to come off cold or arrogant, I'm just trying to give some weather tips.
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Quoting kwgirl:
The air temp may be 90 but I bet your car is hotter in the direct sun than 90.
I bet if you put a thermometer out in the direct sun it will read much higher than the actual temp but that is not the actual temp.

Think heat index it feels hotter to you but not the telephone pole

FWIW I live in Northern MN and understand Windchill and its effects quite well
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WE'RE GOING TO GREENLAND!!!!!!!!!!!!




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Quoting nymore:


Agreed but we were talking windchill not evaporational cooling, which by the way works very well in Arizona


Sorry, I thought we were talking about ice forming above 32F.
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Quoting MTWX:


Not necessarily... Wind can cool the surface of the car to the point droplets can freeze... same way frost can occur even when the air temp is above 32 degrees. Guess what I'm getting at is the surface temp of the car is lower than the air temp (think opposite of fog)




That is true if its at or below freezing. Water on a car will not freeze if it's windy and only in the low 40's plain and simple. The only way to due so is if you super cool the surface, or, if its extremely dry and you continue to place water on the surface until enough evaporative cooling takes place, but that would be very difficult, and would have to be practiced with intention.


Dew can freeze when temps are above freezing during a radiational cooling event where the wind goes calm or near calm because surfaces cool much more efficiently. The air is poor conductor of heat, thus, surfaces will cooler first, causing the air near the surface to cool faster then above, proving calm or near calm or sheltered low lying conditions. However, wind whipping across a surface will prevent that. windy weather and temps in the 40's will not freeze dew. Its really not that complicated...


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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:

The temperature of the water on the cars surface can cool further than the surrounding air temperature due to evaporation though.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

unless the thermometer is wet and the air is not saturated, that's the whole idea behind wet bulb temperature.


Agreed but we were talking windchill not evaporational cooling, which by the way works very well in Arizona
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Quoting nymore:


Wind chill is how cold it feels to exposed skin, It does not actually cool the temp down. If the temp is 20 outside the coldest your car can get is 20.

Edit: To put it in a way easier for florida ppl to understand, think heat index. The temp may be 90 but with humidity it feels like 105 but the actual temp is still 90
The air temp may be 90 but I bet your car is hotter in the direct sun than 90.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Well not to be mean, but she was highly exaggerating, freezing temps or anything near have never been recorded in the lower keys.

Also, wind chill wouldn't cause that anyway because wind chill is an equation derived in order to most accurately depict what cold air with a certain amount of wind feels like to the nerve cells in the human body. However, wind chill does not make the temperature any lower, its just the cold air, lacking energy, when it is wind whipped it has greater ability to pull heat away from your body, since thermal energy is a conservative system.

With that said, if anything, wind whipped cold air would help prevent dew from freezing or forming, because wind helps to prevent dew from forming.

You can see the coldest temps ever recorded in Key West via this link to NOAA:

Link

That's my point. My sister has lived in the cold North and knows what she is talking about. She did say it was a thin film, but it was ice. So the temps had to dip down enough for the ice to freeze. That's why I always thought it had to be the wind to cause that.
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105. MTWX
Quoting nymore:

You can get frost on the ground if the temp is above freezing because the actual temp is taken at approx 6 ft above the ground. But the wind does not lower the actual temp.

Take a fan and turn it on and put a thermometer in front of it the temp will not change because of the wind.


If the temperature of the car is lower than 32 degrees even if the air temp is higher, the water will still freeze, is the point I was trying to make. I understand what you are getting at. Has nothing to do with wind... (I typed before I really thought it through ;))
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Quoting nymore:

You can get frost on the ground if the temp is above freezing because the actual temp is taken at approx 6 ft above the ground. But the wind does not lower the actual temp.

Take a fan and turn it on and put a thermometer in front of it the temp will not change because of the wind.

unless the thermometer is wet and the air is not saturated, that's the whole idea behind wet bulb temperature.
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I was looking for pics about the West VA highway explosion the other day...this is what I found

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Quoting nymore:

You can get frost on the ground if the temp is above freezing because the actual temp is taken at approx 6 ft above the ground. But the wind does not lower the actual temp.

Take a fan and turn it on and put a thermometer in front of it the temp will not change because of the wind.

The temperature of the water on the cars surface can cool further than the surrounding air temperature due to evaporation though.
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Very bad there in Samoa...

Meanwhile look at that huge 948 mb south of Greenland



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Quoting MTWX:


Not necessarily... Wind can cool the surface of the car to the point droplets can freeze... same way frost can occur even when the air temp is above 32 degrees. Guess what I'm getting at is the surface temp of the car is lower than the air temp (think opposite of fog)


You can get frost on the ground if the temp is above freezing because the actual temp is taken at approx 6 ft above the ground. But the wind does not lower the actual temp. It may feel colder to you (windchill) but not the thermometer

Take a fan and turn it on and put a thermometer in front of it the temp will not change because of the wind.
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WINTER STORM NAMES - FIRST THREE
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98. MTWX
Quoting nymore:


Wind chill is how cold it feels to exposed skin, It does not actually cool the temp down. If the temp is 20 outside the coldest your car can get is 20.

To put it in a way easier for florida ppl to understand, think heat index. The temp may be 90 but with humidity it feels like 105 but the actual temp is still 90


Not necessarily... Wind can cool the surface of the car to the point droplets can freeze... same way frost can occur even when the air temp is above 32 degrees. Guess what I'm getting at is the surface temp of the car is lower than the air temp (think opposite of fog)

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Quoting JustPlantIt:
There are also some unique places in Texas that afford wildlife that inhabits desert areas. Unique because of drought and/or desert. AGAIN.... I am not the science major, BUT...  nature is a part of  this. IF I HAD A DEGREE, I would study the animals in these environments. Global warming, animals and insects are the clues for what will happen. AND it is especially the insect!


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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COASTAL STORM EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...BUT THE THREAT EXISTS FOR A HEAVY RAIN OR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...STRONG WIND...AND COASTAL FLOODING EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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65) Boo! Go Bears! Still sunny in C IL, 45 with 20mph from the S.
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Quoting kwgirl:
Really? News to me. Why then do some leaves turn black when it is cold out, but not freezing, but the wind is blowing at 20-30 knots? So then the time she had to scrape ice, it actually got down to 32 degrees. Interesting. I always thought it was because of the wind.
I edited my post to make it easier to understand for southern folks
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Quoting kwgirl:
Largo, I was living in Scotland at that time but my sister was here in Key West. She wrote and told me that she had to scrape ice off the windshield of the car. The windchill was such that it froze the dew.


Well not to be mean, but she was highly exaggerating, freezing temps or anything near have never been recorded in the lower keys.

Also, wind chill wouldn't cause that anyway because wind chill is an equation derived in order to most accurately depict what cold air with a certain amount of wind feels like to the nerve cells in the human body. However, wind chill does not make the temperature any lower, its just the cold air, lacking energy, when it is wind whipped it has greater ability to pull heat away from your body, since thermal energy is a conservative system.

With that said, if anything, wind whipped cold air would help prevent dew from freezing or forming, because wind helps to prevent dew from forming.

You can see the coldest temps ever recorded in Key West via this link to NOAA:

Link

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Quoting nymore:


Wind chill is how cold it feels to exposed skin, It is not actually colder than the real temp. If the temp is 20 outside the coldest your car can get is 20.
Really? News to me. Why then do some leaves turn black when it is cold out, but not freezing, but the wind is blowing at 20-30 knots? So then the time she had to scrape ice, it actually got down to 32 degrees. Interesting. I always thought it was because of the wind.
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Quoting LargoFl:
I take it back Hydrus lol.............
I remember that. Later that year we had cat-5 Anita form in the gulf..Glad she went the other direction.
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90. MTWX
Current Snow Depth:

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Quoting kwgirl:
Largo, I was living in Scotland at that time but my sister was here in Key West. She wrote and told me that she had to scrape ice off the windshield of the car. The windchill was such that it froze the dew.


Wind chill is how cold it feels to exposed skin, It does not actually cool the temp down. If the temp is 20 outside the coldest your car can get is 20.

Edit: To put it in a way easier for florida ppl to understand, think heat index. The temp may be 90 but with humidity it feels like 105 but the actual temp is still 90
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Quoting MrMixon:
You know what causes rain in deserts? Atmospheric moisture.


(Click image to see an animation which clearly shows a wide band of moisture coming ashore near Southern California. See any contrails on this image? No? That's because the size and number of contrails pales in comparison to the scale of the system which ACTUALLY caused the rain).



The moisture levels in that system are actually really low, they are just probably relatively high for a desert region like that. It's mostly due to upper energy/cold air aloft. That low of moisture is typical behind big winter fronts here.

Low moisture, very low:





But don't worry, I'm not mentioning this for anything to do with contrails, I won't waste my time with such silliness in the first place.

I just thought I'd mention this strictly for meteorology purposes to show that the atmosphere is holding very little water in that region :)


Thankfully, low pressure systems are much more powerful over there than here, otherwise they wouldn't get any rain ever in such a dry and harsh atmosphere for rainfall. Deep moisture for them is deep layer dry air out to the east, lol.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:




Cacti, to be specific.

There are many trees that survive in the desert along with "many more plants". It is not just cacti!!! They serve the 'hummingbirds', and the monarchs for food along with native americans for food and water. The deserts have a unique coexistence that we have forgotten about.


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Quoting kwgirl:
Largo, I was living in Scotland at that time but my sister was here in Key West. She wrote and told me that she had to scrape ice off the windshield of the car. The windchill was such that it froze the dew.


I was working at Bakers Haulover Beach Park and had just come out of the breakfast joint when it started. I immediately called my Mom. This was the only snow she ever saw in person. That morning, I witnessed Canadians swimming and taking cold water showers WHILE IT SNOWED... they are significantly tougher than me.
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85. MTWX
Good sites for anyone planning on traveling by car over the holidays.

Current Snow Coverage


National Snow Depth Loop

Current Highway conditions (most states update twice a day)

National Traffic and Road Closure Information
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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