Category 2 Evan batters Samoa, killing two
The Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season is beginning to heat up. Category 2 Tropical Cyclone Evan is pounding Samoa and American Samoa with heavy rains and high winds, after making landfall earlier today on the north shore of Samoa near the capital of Apia. At landfall, Evan had a small 10-mile diameter eye and top winds of 90 mph, but has since intensified to 105 mph winds. Media reports indicate that Evan has killed two, and brought a 12 - 15' storm surge, heavy rains, and severe damage to the island nation. Satellite loops show a well-organized storm with a tiny 7-mile diameter eye. Evan has plenty of intense heavy thunderstorm activity near its core, solid upper-level outflow, and is in an area with weak steering currents. Evan is expected to meander over Samoa until about 18 UTC on Friday, when a ridge of high pressure will build in and force the cyclone to the west. The storm will be in a region with light wind shear and very warm ocean waters that extend to great depth, and could intensify into a Category 3 or 4 cyclone by this weekend. On Sunday, when the ECMWF model predicts that Evan will be near Fiji, the storm will encounter increasing wind shear and should weaken.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Evan over Samoa at 01:05 UTC December 13, 2012. At the time, Evan was a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
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The Lost Islands of Jurassic Park?
Speed bumbs.
Interesting to note how low the ADT estimates are, they've had a significant low bias with this storm since the beginning. I suspect these numbers will shoot up if the eye clears out.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 DEC 2012 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 13:09:24 S Lon : 171:53:56 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 971.7mb/ 79.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 4.1
Center Temp : -79.9C Cloud Region Temp : -82.4C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 82km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 56.6 degrees
This is likely a much more realistic estimate:
13/2352 UTC 13.0S 172.2W T5.5/5.5 EVAN -- Southeast Pacific
OFFTOPIC:
My birthday was yesterday! It was awesome :D
Happy belated birthday. My sisters is the day after Christmas, lucky and unlucky her.
Not surprised to see this storm over Samoa, given the recent major landfall on the southernmost of the Philippines.... seems activity was likely to just migrate south of the equator as the season progressed rather than fall off.
I hope this is not the beginning of an active and destructive season for the SPac.
TCSWSP
A. 04P (EVAN)
B. 13/2352Z
C. 13.0S
D. 172.2W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SSMI/AMSU
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM LAND. DT=5.5
BASED ON WHITE EYE EMBEDDED IN CMG FOR 6.5 AND SURROUNDED BY CMG FOR
-1.0 EYE DEFINITION. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
13/1951Z 13.7S 171.6W SSMI
13/2046Z 13.4S 171.9W AMSU
...SWANSON
So do I. Sad fact is, if there is a Cyclone in the SW Pacific, it will hit somewhere.
I'm 2 days before Christmas, along with my 2 cousins.
MrMixon,
Those are not jet contrails. They are at sea level and the ships that are responsible for them are moving about 30mph. The so called "contrails" are also 20 or more miles WIDE. I don't care who made them or whether they are "intentional", they are geoengineering on a massive scale. And, they encouraged the Pacific storm front to sag further south than it historically would have. These are facts. And so is the desire of the US to "own" the weather by 2025.
It could be that it's having trouble, or it could be that it's actually not all that well organized right now, which is the option I'm leaning towards after checking microwave.
The Lee County School District has purchased new and improved lightning detection system which includes new Weatherbug stations at all high school. This is the brand new one I get to use at my school for the news every morning.
Thank you, Jesse Watlington, for increasing awareness about lightning strikes and ensuring that something like this will never happen at a sports practice.
May you Rest In Peace,
FM
Link
Well Dakster...They still have our high at 60 Christmas Eve day. Though I doubt it.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY THREE (04F)
12:00 PM FST December 14 2012
===================================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUATOPUTAPU AND NIUAFO'OU IN TONGA
At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (965 hPa) located at 13.0S 171.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 5 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS visible/infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.
Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center
Storm Force Winds
====================
35 NM from the center in northern semi-circle and within 24 NM from the center elsewhere
Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center in the northern semi-circle and within 40 NM from the center elsewhere
Deep convection persistent over past 24 hours, EVAN has intensified over the last 12 hours. Cyclone lies under and upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the south. EVAN lies in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center CMG surround yielding DT of 5.0, MET=5.0, and PT=5.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/2 4HRS
Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 13.1S 172.8W - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.3S 174.4W - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.6S 178.4W- 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
It is now called "iwantsomeproof.com"
Ahhh man, it isn't working for me either.
Nea was nice enough to create a program where we can convert YouTube videos to the old embed codes.
It won't open for me either.
It still isn't working for me.
It looks like the old code is back on Youtube.
It is back on YouTube.
Sorry, I know this isn't weather related but it is to show the old embed code is back up...
The Victors:
Yeah, sure.
While you are entitled to your beliefs, it is rude to force them upon everyone else, so please stop posting about weather modification.
Video
Police in Samoa say a number of children are presumed to have drowned after being swept away in a flooded river when Cyclone Evan hit the South Pacific nation.
The cyclone made landfall yesterday and caused widespread damage across the country, killing at least two people, cutting power, causing flooding, and ripping trees out of the ground.
Locals say it is the worst storm to hit the region in recent years, and a state of disaster has been declared.
There are now fears the storm could intensify to a category five cyclone as it tracks across the north of Tonga and then moves onto Fiji.
New Zealand's high commissioner to Samoa, Nick Hurley, says police have told him a number of children went missing near the main river in Samoa's capital Apia.
Many places in Samoa have only just rebuilt after being devastated by a tsunami in 2009.
Authorities in Fiji have gone into emergency preparation as the cyclone threatens to head towards the country.
Fiji's weather bureau says the storm could eventually become a category five cyclone - packing winds at its core of 360 kilometres per hour - and on its current path would hit both of the nation's main islands.
© ABC 2012
" At less than 15% oxygen, fires would not burn, and at greater than 25% oxygen, even wet organic matter would burn freely."
http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/c urrent/lectures/Perry_Samson_lectures/evolution_at m/index.html
Hadn't realized that. [prolly more like hadn't remembered... since I'm no good at embedding video in the first place...]
WunderBlogs - Dr. Masters' Blog Content Rules
3. No monomania.
mon-o-ma-ni-a
1. Pathological obsession with one idea or subject.
2. Intent concentration on or exaggerated enthusiasm for a single subject or idea.
wxmod has a severe case of this.
All I see are a bunch of unsupported claims.
Seriously, if weather modification was actually ongoing, one would assume meteorologists would have noticed something odd is going on.
I have no intention of curtailing my posts about what I see as legitimate weather issues.
My claims are well supported. You have not followed my links, obviously.
They really aren't supported well, nor is weather modification happening.
Also, as Aussie pointed out, monomania is not allowed on the blogs, so don't be surprised if some of your posts start disappearing.
Fortunately, there is a thing called "ignore user" and because of it I don't see any of his nonsense unless someone quotes him.
I did follow that one you gave me about David Keith (?). If you have anymore, I'm all ears.
Also, I love how you obviously can't answer the last part of my post.
Same here. I only noticed wxmod post cause someone else quoted them.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/807447 6/Apia-slammed-as-cyclone-hits-Samoa
You have to click on the link at the left to see the photo gallery.
Damage looks quite extensive.
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