Category 2 Evan batters Samoa, killing two
The Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season is beginning to heat up. Category 2 Tropical Cyclone Evan is pounding Samoa and American Samoa with heavy rains and high winds, after making landfall earlier today on the north shore of Samoa near the capital of Apia. At landfall, Evan had a small 10-mile diameter eye and top winds of 90 mph, but has since intensified to 105 mph winds. Media reports indicate that Evan has killed two, and brought a 12 - 15' storm surge, heavy rains, and severe damage to the island nation. Satellite loops show a well-organized storm with a tiny 7-mile diameter eye. Evan has plenty of intense heavy thunderstorm activity near its core, solid upper-level outflow, and is in an area with weak steering currents. Evan is expected to meander over Samoa until about 18 UTC on Friday, when a ridge of high pressure will build in and force the cyclone to the west. The storm will be in a region with light wind shear and very warm ocean waters that extend to great depth, and could intensify into a Category 3 or 4 cyclone by this weekend. On Sunday, when the ECMWF model predicts that Evan will be near Fiji, the storm will encounter increasing wind shear and should weaken.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Evan over Samoa at 01:05 UTC December 13, 2012. At the time, Evan was a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
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Dr. James Henshell; Camping and Cruising in Florida, page 41. They were camped on the St. Sebastian River on Indian River lagoon.
"A few minutes later I heard a peculiar rumbling and roaring sound proceeding from the eastward, which I at first thought to be the sea; but as it rapidly came nearer it became louder, and the ground began to tremble and roll, jarring the guns on the rack, and producing a rattling among the pans outside. The"
42 CRUISE OF THE BLUE WING.
"heavy rumbling seemed to pass right under me with an oscillating and wavy motion, and disappeared in a westerly direction. I found myself rolling out of my mossy bed, and became conscious that it was the shock of an earthquake or some internal convulsion ; and was a prolonged shock, or rather a quick succession, of two shocks, lasting nearly a minute altogether. The boys were all now wide awake and discussing the matter. Strobhar said he heard it distinctly, but he thought it was "Sen snoring."
This event occurred on the night of January 12th, at half-past eleven o'clock. I learned afterward that it was quite severe in some portions of the State. At Cape Canaveral light-house it threw oil out of the lamp on the reflectors, and shook the solid brick tower of Jupiter light from base to dome, while the keepers of both lights made the best time on record for a hundred feet downward."
It's fairly unusual (though not unheard of) that there were two large earthquakes this morning in such spatially- and temporally-close proximity to one another: a 6.4 about 163 miles SSW of Avalon, followed just 17 seconds later by a 6.1 roughly 89 miles SW of Avalon.It remains to be seen whether there was really just a single quake that was misread as a spurious duality, but so far seismologists are leaving them both up.The "second" quake was spurious, indeed; it was just deleted, leaving only the initial 6.4 that was 74 miles farther to the south.
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Disaster declared after deadly Samoan cyclone
Video
The Samoan government has declared a state of disaster after Cyclone Evan ravaged the South Pacific nation, destroying buildings and causing flash floods.
Police in Samoa say a number of children are presumed to have drowned after being swept away in a flooded river after the cyclone hit.
Evan made landfall yesterday and caused widespread damage across the country, killing at least two people, cutting power, causing flooding and ripping trees out of the ground.
Locals say it is the worst storm to hit the region in recent years and a state of disaster has been declared.
There are now fears the storm could intensify to a category five cyclone as it tracks across the north of Tonga and then moves onto Fiji.
New Zealand's high commissioner to Samoa, Nick Hurley, says police have told him a number of children went missing near the main river in Samoa's capital Apia.
"This is the biggest one I've been through and I've been through difficult situations in the Pacific (before)," Mr Hurley told Radio New Zealand.
"The unpredictable nature of this one has made it quite different. The forecast winds did not give any indication of how strong the impact was going to be."
Many places in Samoa have only just rebuilt after being devastated by a tsunami in 2009.
"Power is off for the whole country... Tanugamanono power plant is completely destroyed and we might not have power for at least two weeks," the Disaster Management Office (DMO) said in a statement.
It said hospitals and other essential services were using standby generators, with water supplies also out and most roads cut off by fallen trees and power poles as hundreds of people languished in evacuation centres.
In travel advice, Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs said the cyclone had caused "damage to local services and infrastructure, including communications and electricity services and Faleolo International Airport".
"The Australian High Commission in Apia has closed until further notice due to storm damage," it said.
The United Nations says international aid groups are ready to help if needed, with damage from the cyclone worse than expected.
Cyclone track
Evan continues to move north west away from Apia, but its progress has slowed to just under 10 kilometres per hour.
It was around 70 kilometres off the coast and is forecast to reverse its course later this evening, although it is not known if it will again cross Samoa.
The Fiji Meteorological Service has warned the cyclone could threaten northern parts of Tonga on Saturday and reach Fiji by Sunday.
Authorities in Fiji have gone into emergency preparation as the cyclone threatens to head towards the country.
Fiji's weather bureau says the storm could eventually become a category five cyclone - packing winds at its core of 360 kilometres per hour(194kn/224mph) - and on its current path would hit both of the nation's main islands.
2012 ABC
Um.... I don't know about the winds getting that fast.
Hi, long-time lurker ... first time poster.
I had just moved down from Chicago months before that Florida snow in 77. Walked outside three times around 6 AM before realizing it was actually snowing (the snow was that pathetically light and it was still dark).
It was only when I got to my car that I caught on that it was flurrying..... and it was indeed FROZEN to the windows of the car. This was mid-state, near Tampa, and IIRC, about 34 degrees.
It was at that point I thought to myself ... "WTH!?! .... we moved down here to get away from snow!" ... LOL
While I was disgusted with the whole prospect, I watched my schoolmates collectively lose their minds, (many had never seen snow) until about 11 AM, when it all had melted.
Evan quite impressive in RB
I agree. Evan looks terrible on microwave.
you gotta remember 100 knots is category 2-3 on the SSHS and the categories are different for other RSMC.
90 knots (10min) is a category 4 there.
Evan has already devastated Western Samoa. 2 dead. school kids missing and Evan is meant to move over Fiji very slowly which will mean more devastation.
Samoa has barely gotten back on it's feet after the quake and tsunami back in 2009 and now Evan has devastated them again. Some people just can't catch a break.
There is a 99.99999999 percent chance that 2012 will be the hottest year ever recorded in the continental 48 states, based on our analysis of 118 years of temperature records through Dec. 10, 2012.
For the first 10 days of December, new daily record high temperatures have outnumbered record lows by a ratio of 92 to 1. For the 48 contiguous states, the ratio was an incredible 132 to 1, since 3 out of the 10 low records were in Alaska and Hawaii. During the entire week of December 2-8, not a single low temperature record was tied or broken in any of the 50 states, according to NCDC reports. With 3 weeks remaining in the year, the cumulative ratio of heat records to cold records for 2012 has reached 6.0 to 1, more than double the ratio in 2011.
Credit: thinkprogress.org
Ah. Either way, I think 100 knots may even be overdone. Evan looks more like an 80kt storm at the moment.
Yes you are right . I think sometime people forget when they are tracking these cyclones that people are affected and there can be huge tragedy . Thats why the E-Pac are my favourites , usually beautiful storms that dont effect land
What she said.
Link
Is it possible that Evan wrapped some dry air from down sloping off the Samoan Islands? They may be too small to play that effect on Evan, but judging from water vapor or any satellite presentations you can see how disorganized he is. He may not even be a hurricane at the moment.
well, this quake is not what I meant.
Very foggy this am..
Here's a couple of webcam's from my area..
I hope it moves out soon..
should start to go down next yr....
In other words no winter this year.....:( I don't think it is ever going to snow here in Illinois. Our December average high for the first 13 days of the month is probably around 53-54 F, compared to the climatology average of 39 F. My grass is still green and growing...
Did SE Texas get any measurable precip from the moisture that moved in from Mexico the last couple of days?..
I was hoping they would as they are in moderate drought conditions as well..
I expect temperatures to plummet sometime after Christmas.
LOL!!
I fear the drought of 2012 during the summer will not only come back for 2013, but be worse. We had a recent relief in the early fall, but over the last 2 months we have only seen 50% of our normal rainfall. With snow this winter looking bleak for Ohio Valley and Midwest, I'd say it won't take long for the core of the drought over the Plains to expand eastward.
Just remember. We still have three months to get a good snow pack.
The GFS model begs to differ. :)
It shows snow behind a developing low in western Missouri strolling northeastwards across much of Illinois and Indiana as early as Monday morning.
SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER EIGHTEEN (18) FOR SAMOA
ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 141200 UTC OR 2:00 A.M
SATURDAY 15TH DECEMBER 2012
.............. Storm warning is now in effect for Savaii……………..
.............. Hurricane warning is now cancelled for Savaii……………..
.............. Wind advisory is now effective for Upolu……………..
.............. Gale watch is now cancelled for Upolu……………..
……….. Flood Advisory remains in effect for low lying areas due to heavy rain ……….
Tropical Cyclone Evan was moving west northwest at 8 mph and was located at about 12.62 south, 172.77 west or 56 miles north northwest of Avao, 53 miles north north of Asau or 91 miles northwest of Apia at 141100 UTC or 1:00 a.m. this morning. TC Evan is expected to move southwest and may relocate at about 121 miles west northwest of Apia or 68 miles west-northwest of Asau at 8.00 am tomorrow.
Expected winds:
Hurricane force winds of 70-95 mph within 5 nautical miles from the centre
Storm force winds of 55-70 mph within 15 nautical miles from the centre.
Gale force winds of 35-50 mph within 25 miles from the centre
Forecast
For Upolu: Northeast winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 35mph in squalls .
Poor visibility in rain. Damaging storm surges of 10-14 feet and very rough seas. Isolated showers, moderate falls possible with a few thunderstorms.
For Savaii: Southern side: East to southeast winds of 45-55 mph with gusts at times mainly at exposed areas.
Northern side: Northeast winds of 50-70 mph with higher gusts at times mainly at exposed areas. Poor visibility in heavy rain. Seas very rough with damaging storm surge of 12-16 feet. Rain heavy at times with thunderstorms.
The next Special Weather Bulletin will be issued at 6.00 a.m. today.
you should get rain this weekend
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