Panama disturbance weaker

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:05 PM GMT on November 12, 2005

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The rains have diminished over Panama today as the area of disturbed weather in the south-central Caribbean has weakened. The intensity and areal coverage of the disurbance has decreased since yesterday, although there are still some intense thunderstorms moving ashore along the Nicaraguan coast. Wind shear has increased from 15 to 20 knots since yesterday and contributed to the weakening.

Some slow development of this disturbance is still possible over the coming week, as wind shear values are expected to fall starting Monday. The UKMET and NOGAPS models are still showing a tropical storm forming between Nicaragua and Jamaica by Thursday, but the GFS model is no longer predicting this. The earliest a tropical depression would be likely to form is Tuesday. Friday or later is a more likely bet.


Figure 1. GFS model forecast five days from now, showing a tropical disturbance with copious rainfall (bright green and yellow colors) near Nicaragua. However, the GFS is no longer showing a closed isobar of surface pressure around the rain area, indicating that this is not forecast to be a tropical storm. Click here to see the full GFS forecast for rainfall and surface pressure for the coming 14 days in the Caribbean.

The rains should ease off in Panama and Costa Rica today, which have seen some impressive rainfall amounts the past three days. Some rainfall totals for the 72 hours ending at 7 pm Friday night:

Limon, Costa Rica: 210 mm (8.29 inches)
Jaque, Panama: 166 mm (6.54 inches)
El Porvenir, Panama: 151 mm (5.94 inches)

I'll be back with an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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134. BonnieBay
1:34 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
Thanks to our Hurricane expert Bloggers we knew what was going on.......................many thanks to both of you!
133. 8888888889gg
3:29 PM GMT on November 13, 2005
DR.M as a new blog up
132. AySz88
6:49 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
Wow, the "danger area" is so rediculously tiny...
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
131. squeak
6:44 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
Hey now is this funny...I just went and checked, and pressure right now in my suburb south of the Twin Cities is 990mb, no kidding. I went and checked to the NE after looking at the radar, and a NE suburb, and nearby loc in WI, both have a pressure reading of 987mb.
130. squeak
6:32 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
Well darned if there isn't sleet crackling against my windowpane. We're fixing to get a big drop in temp between now and Sunday morning, and a little taste of winter I think.
129. squeak
6:10 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
atmos...and how many times this season was that rate surpassed, to peak with record-setting Wilma.

There have been a lot of colorful moments in the discussions this year (most recently, how the models "brilliantly" predicted Beta...not).
128. dcw
6:10 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
Nothing really new in discussion. Goin to bed now.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
127. atmosweather
6:08 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
im gonna get some sleep, nite guys
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
126. atmosweather
5:57 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
next discussion out soon and this one will include the intense blow up of convection near the center earlier
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
125. 8888888889gg
5:55 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
An area of low pressure along a tropical wave is centered about 100
miles east-southeast of Barbados. This system has been producing a
concentrated area of thunderstorm activity near the developing
circulation center during the past few hours. Upper-level winds
appear marginally conducive for additional development... and it is
possible that this system could become a tropical depression during
the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
124. cgableshurrycanegal
5:48 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
found this also on NHC in latest tropical discussion:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 58W S OF
19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 1008 MB LOW MAY BE FORMING ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 11N ACCORDING THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES.
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE FROM 9N-19N
BETWEEN 51W-59W AND SHOULD MAKE TOMORROW QUITE WET FOR THE
LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE LATEST GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BUT WLY UPPER WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
123. atmosweather
5:43 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
lol dcw

and their great dennis discussion sentence

"AFTER DEEPENING AT A RATE THAT BORDERED ON INSANE DURING THE AFTERNOON...DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AT A MORE NORMAL RATE THIS EVENING."
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
122. 8888888889gg
5:41 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
any one on DSL it is so slow how come?
121. dcw
5:41 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
I always have to giggle a bit at the NHC's discussion at 11PM the night of mega-Wilma. 'The initial intensity is set at 95 kts. This may be conservative'. Gee..you think?
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
120. atmosweather
5:37 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
LOL dcw

youre welcome 888
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
119. 8888888889gg
5:36 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
thank you atmosweather
118. squeak
5:35 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
Well, ho, I go have myself a nice evening and come home and what has cooked up in six hours? Well that was fast. Lordy looks like we have something to watch until (if) SW Carib gets going later next week.
117. dcw
5:34 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
It's 27. Kinda funny that the october summary from the NHC uses 'STD 22' :P
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
116. atmosweather
5:33 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
888

NASA
or
FLOATER
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
115. 8888888889gg
5:33 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
cgableshurrycanegal that ok can you tell me what it look like
114. cgableshurrycanegal
5:30 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
thx atmos
8888 have no links, I'm still on dial-up and take too long, so...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
113. atmosweather
5:29 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
this will be td 27
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
112. cgableshurrycanegal
5:29 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
nighters, skye, yeah, 12 hours to see what it does, which is what I think NHC is doing. They've already advised the islands to hang onto their hats, and now everyone watches...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
111. cgableshurrycanegal
5:27 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
skye, thanks for giving me the word to spread!!!
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
110. Skyepony (Mod)
5:26 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
Well, I'll give it 12 hours, check it in the mornin & try to beat ya to sleep ~ Nite all~ Hey gables thanks for spreadin the word.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
109. cgableshurrycanegal
5:26 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
at this point I have NO idea what # TD we are up to. Never thought I would see a year I couldn't keep straight...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
108. 8888888889gg
5:25 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
some one give me a link on some satellite on what eve you can give me
107. cgableshurrycanegal
5:24 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
skye, beat you to it... nyah-nyah!!!
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
106. ProgressivePulse
5:24 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
I thought beta was #27??
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5395
105. Skyepony (Mod)
5:24 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
Those cordinates are for Panama blog not this one. Well, they know how to think on their feet. They've changed the plan before.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
104. cgableshurrycanegal
5:23 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
I understand that dcw, but I also understand that diurnal blow-up and die-down happens cyclically as well and that if they have to scramble an ops they will and they will mention it in their public announcement regardless of whatever timetables they normally run. This is indeed impressive, and needs to be watched, I just wouldn't bet the farm on it just yet. Give it another 12 hours to be sure it'll really hold together as an ORGANIZED system.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
103. atmosweather
5:23 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
doubt it progressive it isnt that strong yet but its well on the way to becoming td27 by tomorrow or monday
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
102. dcw
5:22 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
The latter one is the system in the west Caribbean, which will certainly be cancelled due to the spin-down over the past few hours.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
101. atmosweather
5:22 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
nite snowboy
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
100. Skyepony (Mod)
5:22 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
*recon plan of the day
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z NOV 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-169

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 11.5N 81.5W AT 14/2000Z.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
99. ProgressivePulse
5:22 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
TD#28 2am. Gamma by 11am.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5395
98. snowboy
5:21 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
i'm off too, g'night all
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
97. atmosweather
5:20 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
as of tonight there is no scheduled noaa or hurricane hunter aircraft flights into the disturbance

cgables

i think they are not serious about it because it has developed so quickly tonight and never really expected it
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
96. 8888888889gg
5:20 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
sorry there mean to say hurricane hunter or noaa to take a look to see what is going on out there
95. cgableshurrycanegal
5:19 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
888, from NHC site:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 121430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT SAT 12 NOV 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z NOV 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-169

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 11.5N 81.5W AT 14/2000Z.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
94. dcw
5:19 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
Gables, they issue hurricane hunter timetables each day, and this was only THERE six hours ago.

Looks like a 55-60 mph T.S. already, jeez thats organized!
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
93. 8888888889gg
5:17 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
dos any one no if they will send in a hurricane huter to or noaa to take a look at it to see what is going on out there
92. cgableshurrycanegal
5:16 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
may be impressive blow-up on sat and what ship reports they have. It has to sustain over a period of 24 hours to really prove itself. The islands in its path are going to get a blow, but until it's been around a while we need to monitor it and pray it stays nothing more than a collection of nasty thunderstorms. NHC has said nothing about putting a hurricane hunter into either which makes me wonder just how serious they are...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
91. ProgressivePulse
5:15 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
Man, can I put money on this thing being a TS already. Dvorak looks pretty darn organized.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5395
90. atmosweather
5:14 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
there is excellent outflow to the north and east so it is able to get underneath the shear and blow up
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
89. dcw
5:14 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
Indeed, gables. What a year...and it's not done yet, Gamma is in a position to threaten the U.S. one last time this year.

Found a great weather forum, head on over:

http://www.talkweather.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=57
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
88. dcw
5:13 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
It's going to be a CDO real soon if this keeps up though. How in the world is it strengthening like that under so much shear and not really steamy waters?
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
87. cgableshurrycanegal
5:13 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
just checked colorado state and neither they nor skeetobite have anything out on this system. Seems to have popped up out of nowhere. It isn't a usual breeding ground, historically, outside of carib and gulf, this time of year. However, this IS 2005... so all bets are off...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
86. atmosweather
5:11 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
nite cane
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
85. ProgressivePulse
5:10 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
Later Miacane
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5395
84. miacanefan
5:09 AM GMT on November 13, 2005
Goodnight all, gonna get some rest cause tomorrow we'll have plenty to talk about if Gamma keeps her intensity and developing tonight!

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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