Hurricane Sandy was not an extreme Black Swan hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:47 PM GMT on December 10, 2012

Share this Blog
35
+

I was in San Francisco last week for the annual Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), the world's largest gathering of Earth Scientists. Over twenty thousand scientists from all over the world, including many of the world's top climate scientists and hurricane scientists, were in town to exchange ideas to advance the cause of Earth Science. One of the more intriguing talks was given by Ning Lin, a professor at Princeton University. She and Dr. Kerry Emanuel of MIT are studying "Black Swans"--tropical cyclones that are a surprise to the observer, and cannot be anticipated based on the 162-year historical record. Very rare extreme hurricanes that one might expect to occur naturally once every 10,000 years are possible, and “climate change has increased the probability of such storms,” Emanuel said at a press conference last week. In terms of storm surge, Sandy was not a black swan, since the 1821 hurricane that hit New York City had a higher storm surge. Historical records recount that the water rose thirteen feet in one hour at The Battery on Manhattan during the 1821 hurricane. The water level did not rise as high as during Sandy, though, since the 1821 hurricane hit at low tide.

Lin and Emanuel used a climate model in combination with a detailed hurricane model to generate a large number of hypothetical hurricanes in the future climate, and generated 10,000 years worth of storm surge events. They then used a detailed storm surge model (ADCIRC) to evaluate the storm surge risk these storms posed. Their three case studies:

1) The Persian Gulf. No tropical cyclones have ever been observed in the Persian Gulf, due to the Gulf's low humidity and high wind shear. However, the Gulf has some of the warmest water temperatures on the planet, and could theoretically support a strong tropical cyclone. The researchers' modeling predicted a 1-in-248,000 probability that a strong tropical cyclone originating in the western Persian Gulf could move eastwards and bring a 7 meter (16 foot) storm surge to Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. Obviously, such an event would be extremely disruptive to the global energy economy, which relies heavily on the infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.

2) Darwin, Australia. In 1974, tiny but powerful Tropical Cyclone Tracy brought a 1.6 meter (5.2') storm surge to the city. Lin and Emanuel's research showed that a black swam tropical cyclone with a probability of 1-in-70,000 is capable of bringing a devastating 11.5 meter (38') storm surge to the city.

3) Tampa Bay, Florida. Only two major Category 3 hurricanes have hit Tampa: an 1848 hurricane that raised waters levels by 4.6 meters (15'), and a 1921 storm with a storm surge of 3.2 meters (10.5'.) A black swan storm moving from south to north just offshore could set up a resonance in Tampa Bay and generate a 13 meter (43') storm surge. Such a storm has a 1-in-14,500 chance of occurring in a given year. This would likely do over $250 billion in damage, I expect.


Figure 1. Damage to Bayshore Boulevard after the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane. The road leads to the Tampa Bay Convention Center from the south.


Figure 2. Track of the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921, one of only two major hurricanes ever to hit the city. This Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds brought a storm surge of 10.5 feet to Tampa Bay. A "Black Swan" hurricane capable of generating a 43' storm surge would not take a track like this, and instead would move from south to north just offshore.

Jeff Masters

Freak black swan? (Derek1)
All the other swans are on Lake Annecy are white - as far as I know - so where did this black one come from?
Freak black swan?

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 617 - 567

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

616. Jedkins01
5:40 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting FtMyersgal:
It is currently 76 in Fort Myers. Just heard a very strange sound for December. A big clapp of thunder!
Hope some nice rains are on the way finally



One clap of thunder? We had thousands of them last night here around the Tampa Bay area, literally. That cluster of thunderstorm last night at one point was producing around 5700 lightning strikes per hour, that's crazy for December lol.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7303
615. HurrMichaelOrl
4:44 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
It also got down to 42F in Key West at some point in 2010, the all-time record low is 41F. It even reached 48F in Havana, Cuba a few weeks ago on a morning that was 45F here.

I wish that cold front would hurry up and get here. The cooler than normal late October and November has left me not used to this warm, sticky weather. I like the "clean, crisp" feeling of winter.

Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1078
613. overwash12
4:25 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting kwgirl:

Great slower time to come down is now before Christmas or after New Years before season cranks up in Feb.
I think it got down to 48 back in 72,everybody was freezing! No Heat!
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1460
612. SteveDa1
4:23 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
My weirdest weather event would have to be the relentless freezing rain in January 1998. It literally freezing rained for 5-6 days. To make things worse, it was followed by a long cold period. Widespread total accumulations of 2-5 inches of ice in my area cut power for 3-4 weeks. It was amazing to see up to 4 inches of ice on sidewalks, streets, trees, and... well, everything!


Image credit: Wikipedia
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
611. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:23 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
610. hydrus
4:20 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Oooooh...So for every ounce of snow the GFS gives out, the ECMWF gives out a bigger severe wx chance:




James Spann is not happy about any of this :)

Cold core upper low; weatherman's woe. One week from today. Let's see if it holds up.
The GFS is running. I am want see if it still has teo severe weather outbreaks..The goys at the SPC had this to say this morning... DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2012

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH MODEST SPREAD PERSISTS AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS COMING FRIDAY/SATURDAY IS FAIRLY HIGH. HOWEVER...AT
LEAST IN PART DUE TO SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE ONLY BEING IN THE
PROCESS OF RETURNING AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES... JUXTAPOSITION OF THE
MORE FAVORABLE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION REMAINS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN
SO...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...PARTICULARLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHERN TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY...THROUGH
ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WAVE
MAY BE TO HELP ESTABLISH SUFFICIENT MOISTENING...ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF COAST REGION...TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WITH THE NEXT
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE
SPREAD AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA...THOUGH...IS
STILL MUCH TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY ASCERTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
REGION SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND GRAPHICALLY DELINEATE AN AREA.

..KERR.. 12/11/2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20539
609. AtHomeInTX
4:19 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting kwgirl:
It may not make it down here. But I'm hoping for at least a 10 degree drop. Any more and I'll have to break out my close toed shoes and sweat shirt. That's my winter wear!LOL


Lol. Sounds like us around here. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 680
608. kwgirl
4:19 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting overwash12:
I need to get down there soon,I love Key West!

Great slower time to come down is now before Christmas or after New Years before season cranks up in Feb.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
607. overwash12
4:17 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting kwgirl:
It may not make it down here. But I'm hoping for at least a 10 degree drop. Any more and I'll have to break out my close toed shoes and sweat shirt. That's my winter wear!LOL
I need to get down there soon,I love Key West!
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1460
606. FtMyersgal
4:15 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
605. overwash12
4:14 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I have mentioned this before but....The Xenia Ohio tornado, April 3rd, 1974, 3:40 pm. Luckily we just got out of high school because Xenia High School was totally destroyed. Many injured people walking around in a daze..Everywhere we looked there was damage. My only thought was to go home . I lived about 1/2 mile from school. The roads were impassible of course. Everyone walking around. A train had blown off it's tracks and divided the city in half. I made it home luckily my parents had minor damage but they were ok. This story could go on and on but you get the idea... It was a living hell for the next few weeks. Many friends were killed and injured.
I feel ya,I talked to guy who was in it and I was awestruck!
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1460
604. FtMyersgal
4:12 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
It is currently 76° in Fort Myers. Just heard a very strange sound for December. A big clapp of thunder!
Hope some nice rains are on the way finally
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
603. calkevin77
4:09 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting overwash12:
What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter!


Well mine is not so much weird as scary. We were coming back from Cape Town South Africa. Stopping at one of the islands in Cape Verde to refuel during a 20 hour flight back to the US. This was back in Feb 2001. Anyways we encountered a microburst and the plane dropped rapidly. The captain came over the loud speaker telling flight attendants to secure the cabin. I could hear in the background the alarms going off. Needless to say things leveled out but I think 2/3rds of the passengers on the plane would have been able to be spokespeople for Depends…Myself included.
Member Since: June 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 838
602. txjac
4:09 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Wow Nea ...thanks so much
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2475
601. kwgirl
4:08 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting pcola57:


Just a foot note for you kwgirl..front went through here yesterday with temps in the upper 70's..now I'm at 45..quite a difference in temp coming your way..
It may not make it down here. But I'm hoping for at least a 10 degree drop. Any more and I'll have to break out my close toed shoes and sweat shirt. That's my winter wear!LOL
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
600. PalmBeachWeather
4:07 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting overwash12:
What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter!
I have mentioned this before but....The Xenia Ohio tornado, April 3rd, 1974, 3:40 pm. Luckily we just got out of high school because Xenia High School was totally destroyed. Many injured people walking around in a daze..Everywhere we looked there was damage. My only thought was to go home . I lived about 1/2 mile from school. The roads were impassible of course. Everyone walking around. A train had blown off it's tracks and divided the city in half. I made it home luckily my parents had minor damage but they were ok. This story could go on and on but you get the idea... It was a living hell for the next few weeks. Many friends were killed and injured.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5822
599. Neapolitan
4:02 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Dang...What happened to all the old embed codes on You Tube? Anyone have a tricky shortcut?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

YouTube doesn't support old embed codes anymore. You will just have to post the link to the video.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Email the secret and I will be nice. No more 99 Luft Balloons.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Come on Hades...email me how you do it!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Can't do it. Dr. Masters...please help us poor souls and format your blog to post You Tubes!!!!!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Skye...if you have an easy way to do it...please just post it. It would be a nice Christmas present.
Quoting pcola57:

I did mine differently but a little more complicated as my code was alot different in the beginning..more character shuffle..works great though..I'll try your later..
Thanks Keep
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

I hate to ask...but if you say his name three times, he will come to help....Nea...Nea...Nea
Your calls have been answered. ;-)

Yes, all your YouTube problems are solved! Well, okay, perhaps not all of them. But some of them. Maybe. At least I hope so. I woke up this morning, read the above comments, and threw together a web page that converts the new YouTube embed code to the old embed code format for use here on WU (and other forums that still require it).

Neapolitan's YouTube Old Embed Coderizer

Let me know what you think...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13470
597. overwash12
4:00 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting bluheelrtx:
Actually, I love all of the different weather, it's just the short days that I find depressing.
Remember,laughter is the best medicine! lol
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1460
595. pcola57
3:57 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting overwash12:
What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter!


2 day dust storm..panhandle of Texas..1975..miserable.. :(
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6774
594. bluheelrtx
3:57 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting overwash12:
I like winter,spring,fall and summer!
Actually, I love all of the different weather, it's just the short days that I find depressing.
Member Since: November 8, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 228
593. pcola57
3:55 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting kwgirl:
Wash, I'm in Florida but I didn't see any lightning. It's 83 degress right now according to WU. The mornings have been a bit moist and the Keys only saw one morning with fog. That is a rare event here. Don't know if that cold will reach us though. It would be nice to be a little bit cooler so I can commence my holiday baking.I like cloudy days, down here anyway , because it keeps the temps down. Put some Christmas music on and it should cheer you up:)


Just a foot note for you kwgirl..front went through here yesterday with temps in the upper 70's..now I'm at 45..quite a difference in temp coming your way..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6774
592. bluheelrtx
3:54 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
Still holding at 39-40 degrees around here, COLD none the less, and there's a breeze
It was 28 in Hockley this morning.
Member Since: November 8, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 228
591. overwash12
3:54 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
This is my weirdest weather event: Northeastern North Carolina 1989.. It was early Spring and a front had already passed in the nightime hrs. ... I guess the upper part of the atmo was very cold and when the sun came up,it caused violent updrafts! Behind my house stood a 1000 acre of pine. Thunderstorm popped up and put down nickel sized hail,lightning hit a dead pine causing it to burst into flames. When the storm passed a heavy fog rolled out of the woods with a heavy pine scent and there was a dead calm about the scene!
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1460
590. RitaEvac
3:54 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
say Rita..they pushed the freeze warnings back into inland Texas today....


Houston/Galveston NWS probably evaluating what to do, we'll know later this afternoon if they issue any
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
589. LargoFl
3:53 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AND EVEN POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. RESIDENTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37050
588. AtHomeInTX
3:52 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting Slamguitar:
Morning everyone!! The cold extends pretty far south.



Freeze reached down to I10 for the first time here.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 680
587. MontanaZephyr
3:52 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Weird weather event:

Lake effect snow squalls, when they are really cranking, have a central river of particularly heavy snow fall... more than 6" an hour in some cases. I lived for over 20 years in the snow belt of Lake Ontario. Once, (and only once did I ever see this happen, and never heard tell of it anywhere else), I was driving home a few miles to the south. Usually, the area where there is the heaviest snow gradually fades in over perhaps a half mile, but on this occasion it was a solid white wall extending up into the sky... it was like driving into a glass of milk.

Separately, on Thursday, the New Moon occurs not too far from Perigee. If there is any substance to the notion that earthquakes are triggered by tides in the atmosphere, water and Earth's crust, it may be a quakey few days presently.
Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 437
586. RitaEvac
3:52 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
California doubles down on solar power, as critics question cost, job results
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
585. LargoFl
3:50 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37050
584. LargoFl
3:50 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
say Rita..they pushed the freeze warnings back into inland Texas today....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37050
583. AtHomeInTX
3:49 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Pictures speak louder than words.
I remember hearing about Humberto on the news.People prepared for a weak 40mph storm only to wake up to a hurricane.


Yep. Was definitely a rude awakening. lol
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 680
581. washingtonian115
3:43 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


;)

Pictures speak louder than words.
I remember hearing about Humberto on the news.People prepared for a weak 40mph storm only to wake up to a hurricane.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16439
580. MontanaZephyr
3:43 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:



What a gross mis-generalization.

I love the stereotyping.

Hey Rita, only two weeks until the winter solstice....





I agree with rita, but would expand it to people outside of urban areas as well. Cognitive myopathy seems to be very much a part of human nature. That is not meant as a judgemental statement, though.... The 'software' that the mind thinks with, interprets data with, is just like any other modeling system... it handles some kinds of data well, others less so, or even not at all.

It would probably be a good thing if people realized that they can consciously manage their modeling systems.
Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 437
579. washingtonian115
3:39 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
tombelltx I can't see you so if your wondering why I haven't been responding that's why.Weather affects all of our lives in one way or the other.So actually if you really think about it...most of our lives do revolve around weather...whether we know it or not...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16439
578. Slamguitar
3:38 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Morning everyone!! The cold extends pretty far south.

Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
577. AtHomeInTX
3:37 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting overwash12:
What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter!


;)

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 680
576. GeorgiaStormz
3:37 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:



Cheer up already!!!!

You have RG3 and a team competing with the Giants for the NFC East title.

Seriously.

There's more to life than weather!!!!





And I have the Atlanta Falcons coming to whoop the Giants next sunday......

At least I'm not a Texans fan today.....anyway i'm outta here, i'll be back at lunchtime
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
575. RitaEvac
3:34 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting overwash12:
What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter!


Arctic front was coming in back in 1999-2000, winds shifted to the NW with rain, temperature started dropping quick, (10 Degrees) then the wind started shifting back outta the SE and temp started going back up quick. (10 degrees) Wondered if the front was wobbling back and forth or something. Then finally it shifted back outta the NW and cold came in indefintely. Event took place within an hr or so
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
574. washingtonian115
3:33 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting overwash12:
What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter!
I was at the mall back in June 2001 when the Greenbelt tornado was occuring and I remember seeing trees bending over and debris flying everywhere.Of course before I could see anymore I ran and took shelter in the bathroom.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16439
573. icmoore
3:33 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting pcola57:


I think it's shear..I clicked on it and thats what I think..there's a W/V loop there too..
Funky weather system going through our area icmore..
Unstable in spotty places..
And like Largo pointed out..the sun will create some issues later on too.. :)


Thank you, pcola! :)
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
572. kwgirl
3:33 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting overwash12:
What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter!
My wierdest weather event was fog in England. My husband and I were driving back from London to Scotland and got caught in a real pea soup type of fog. First and Last time I ever saw it so thick. My husband had to stick his head out the window to follow the line in the road. We couldn't even see enough to pull over. A lot of roads there have a ditch beside them instead of a berm.

Or it could have been the hail in Morocco. That was weird as well. Never saw it like that and haven't experienced it again.

I'm still waiting to see it rain fish. I have heard tales about it, but have never seen it. That would be the weirdest.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
571. LargoFl
3:31 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting overwash12:
What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter!
ok i'll bite..this is the weirdest weather event, i remeber this and thought at the time i didnt move far south enough lol..........Tampa (pronunciation: /ˈtæmpə/) is a city in the U.S. state of Florida. It serves as the county ..... The last measurable snow in Tampa fell on January 19, 1977
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37050
568. washingtonian115
3:28 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting kwgirl:
Wash, I'm in Florida but I didn't see any lightning. It's 83 degress right now according to WU. The mornings have been a bit moist and the Keys only saw one morning with fog. That is a rare event here. Don't know if that cold will reach us though. It would be nice to be a little bit cooler so I can commence my holiday baking.I like cloudy days, down here anyway , because it keeps the temps down. Put some Christmas music on and it should cheer you up:)
Well it certainly did put me in the mood to go christmas shopping yesterday(staying in doors was the better option than if you had outdoor plans).

Georgiastorms The weather forcast showed us being in the 50's.So more than likely we'll get rain from whatever storm that is.However such forecast are highly unreliable so far out.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16439
567. GeorgiaStormz
3:27 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
.....gee IF that storm pulls up all this gulf moisture we have around here..watch out..big snows for sure


the further south you go I'd be more concerned about severe wx, gfs and euro now in agreement :)
GFS keeps everything thunder related south of central GA and AL:

Euro is a tad more north
Details details.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS say it will snow twice here. First next week as the minor storm moves through and then on Christmas with that major nor Easter.


Lucky :P

Quoting washingtonian115:
Geaorgiastorms how far out in time is this anyway?.Two weeks time?.


One week's time to the SE, and if it follows that path it will go to the NE within a day or two.
I'm sure you'll at least get something, what we actually get is still an issue.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721

Viewing: 617 - 567

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
78 °F
Partly Cloudy