Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hurricane Sandy was not an extreme Black Swan hurricane

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:47 PM GMT on December 10, 2012

+35

I was in San Francisco last week for the annual Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), the world's largest gathering of Earth Scientists. Over twenty thousand scientists from all over the world, including many of the world's top climate scientists and hurricane scientists, were in town to exchange ideas to advance the cause of Earth Science. One of the more intriguing talks was given by Ning Lin, a professor at Princeton University. She and Dr. Kerry Emanuel of MIT are studying "Black Swans"--tropical cyclones that are a surprise to the observer, and cannot be anticipated based on the 162-year historical record. Very rare extreme hurricanes that one might expect to occur naturally once every 10,000 years are possible, and “climate change has increased the probability of such storms,” Emanuel said at a press conference last week. In terms of storm surge, Sandy was not a black swan, since the 1821 hurricane that hit New York City had a higher storm surge. Historical records recount that the water rose thirteen feet in one hour at The Battery on Manhattan during the 1821 hurricane. The water level did not rise as high as during Sandy, though, since the 1821 hurricane hit at low tide.

Lin and Emanuel used a climate model in combination with a detailed hurricane model to generate a large number of hypothetical hurricanes in the future climate, and generated 10,000 years worth of storm surge events. They then used a detailed storm surge model (ADCIRC) to evaluate the storm surge risk these storms posed. Their three case studies:

1) The Persian Gulf. No tropical cyclones have ever been observed in the Persian Gulf, due to the Gulf's low humidity and high wind shear. However, the Gulf has some of the warmest water temperatures on the planet, and could theoretically support a strong tropical cyclone. The researchers' modeling predicted a 1-in-248,000 probability that a strong tropical cyclone originating in the western Persian Gulf could move eastwards and bring a 7 meter (16 foot) storm surge to Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. Obviously, such an event would be extremely disruptive to the global energy economy, which relies heavily on the infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.

2) Darwin, Australia. In 1974, tiny but powerful Tropical Cyclone Tracy brought a 1.6 meter (5.2') storm surge to the city. Lin and Emanuel's research showed that a black swam tropical cyclone with a probability of 1-in-70,000 is capable of bringing a devastating 11.5 meter (38') storm surge to the city.

3) Tampa Bay, Florida. Only two major Category 3 hurricanes have hit Tampa: an 1848 hurricane that raised waters levels by 4.6 meters (15'), and a 1921 storm with a storm surge of 3.2 meters (10.5'.) A black swan storm moving from south to north just offshore could set up a resonance in Tampa Bay and generate a 13 meter (43') storm surge. Such a storm has a 1-in-14,500 chance of occurring in a given year. This would likely do over $250 billion in damage, I expect.

Figure 1. Damage to Bayshore Boulevard after the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane. The road leads to the Tampa Bay Convention Center from the south.

Figure 2. Track of the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921, one of only two major hurricanes ever to hit the city. This Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds brought a storm surge of 10.5 feet to Tampa Bay. A "Black Swan" hurricane capable of generating a 43' storm surge would not take a track like this, and instead would move from south to north just offshore.

Jeff Masters

Freak black swan? (Derek1)

All the other swans are on Lake Annecy are white - as far as I know - so where did this black one come from?

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201. wxchaser97 9:50 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting MTWX: Where did you get this?? Just looking for a link because I couldn't find it on the SPC or NWS Birmingham site... Right on the SPC storm report page, yesterday page. Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6805

202. Dr. Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology (Admin) 9:51 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Corrected the surge heights in my post to the right ones in feet--I didn't use the proper 3.28' to meter conversion! So, the black swan surge for Tampa is really 43', yikes. Fighting a cold today, and my brain wasn't working well... Jeff Masters

203. MTWX 9:54 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97: Right on the SPC storm report page, yesterday page. Thanks! Wasn't on there this morning when I looked... Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 22 Comments: 1215

204. MTWX 9:55 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting JeffMasters: Corrected the surge heights in my post to the right ones in feet--I didn't use the proper 3.28' to meter conversion! So, the black swan surge for Tampa is really 43', yikes. Fighting a cold today, and my brain wasn't working well... Jeff Masters Hope you feel better soon! Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 22 Comments: 1215

205. wxchaser97 9:56 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting MTWX: Thanks! Wasn't on there this morning when I looked... You're welcome! I know it wasn't on there last night when I checked, could've been a late report. Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6805

206. icmoore 9:56 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
a href="" target="_blank"> Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4062

207. txjac 9:56 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Link Massive blizzard causes SIX HUNDRED crashes and leaves one dead after dumping 16 inches of snow on the Twin CitiesMore than 600 crashes were reported in Twin Cities as of Monday morning with at least one fatality Snowfall also caused travel nightmare for those flying out of Minneapolis-St Paul International Airport Wow, hard to believe that there are that MANY accidents! Compliments of Daily Mail Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1566

208. TampaBayStormChaser 10:00 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Multiple tornado warnings near Orlando..with daytime heating, instability, sw flow, dew points near 70 I expect more tornado warnings especially towards florida's east coast Member Since: May 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 248

209. icmoore 10:00 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting JeffMasters: Corrected the surge heights in my post to the right ones in feet--I didn't use the proper 3.28' to meter conversion! So, the black swan surge for Tampa is really 43', yikes. Fighting a cold today, and my brain wasn't working well... Jeff Masters Oh good grief yikes is right! :) I hope you feel better soon!! Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4062

210. barbamz 10:01 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Nothing sensational, just winter business as usual (but unfortunately some people died nevertheless): 12/10/2012 Heavy Snowfall Winter Weather Brings Europe to a Standstill Winter arrived to much of Europe over the weekend as heavy snowfall blanketed the Balkans and Germany came to a standstill. At least six deaths were reported in southwestern Europe while Romanians struggled to get to the polls on election day. Read more on Spiegel online with a lot of pics for floridian snow lovers, lol. On my blog there is a photo of my neighbourhood, nothing sensational as well, just a calm winter scenery in an old town. Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 1605

211. wxchaser97 10:03 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting txjac: Link Massive blizzard causes SIX HUNDRED crashes and leaves one dead after dumping 16 inches of snow on the Twin CitiesMore than 600 crashes were reported in Twin Cities as of Monday morning with at least one fatality Snowfall also caused travel nightmare for those flying out of Minneapolis-St Paul International Airport Wow, hard to believe that there are that MANY accidents! Compliments of Daily Mail My cousin in Minneapolis is having to deal with all this winter weather. Even though being from Michigan she is used to it it is still causing problems. Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6805

212. RitaEvac 10:03 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
If you're in Florida, let's hope this doesn't happen to some of you Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8912

213. bappit 10:04 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting JeffMasters: Corrected the surge heights in my post to the right ones in feet--I didn't use the proper 3.28' to meter conversion! So, the black swan surge for Tampa is really 43', yikes. Fighting a cold today, and my brain wasn't working well... Jeff Masters So what are the odds expressing? 1 in 14,300 what? Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4384

214. MAweatherboy1 10:04 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
New tornado warning in FL: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 502 PM EST MON DEC 10 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEW SMYRNA BEACH...PONCE INLET... OSTEEN...MAYTOWN...EDGEWATER... * UNTIL 545 PM EST. * AT 500 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FARMTON OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAYTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BETHUNE BEACH THE IMMEDIATE DANGER OF A TORNADO IS HIGH. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS DEVELOPING TORNADO ARE URGED TO QUICKLY PREPARE FOR ITS APPROACH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION! ACT NOW AS SECONDS CAN SAVE LIVES! PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET. KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY. EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IT IS VERY RISKY TO REMAIN IN A MOBILE HOME DURING A TORNADO. MOBILE HOMES OFFER LITTLE PROTECTION AGAINST TORNADO WINDS EVEN IF THEY ARE TIED DOWN. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF A TORNADO AND ARE IN A MOBILE HOME...ABANDON IT FOR SAFE SHELTER. QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NEAREST STURDY BUILDING AND GO TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. PUT AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE TORNADO AS POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO WILL LIKELY BE WRAPPED IN HEAVY RAIN MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO SEE. BE SMART AND REACT NOW! && LAT...LON 2910 8092 2907 8092 2907 8090 2892 8081 2879 8095 2879 8097 2877 8097 2872 8103 2875 8106 2879 8106 2882 8107 2883 8111 2880 8113 2884 8118 2912 8095 TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 221DEG 21KT 2885 8104 $$ CRISTALDI Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6373

215. wxchaser97 10:06 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac: If you're in Florida, let's hope this doesn't happen to some of you I have had a storm coming right at me only to turn or weaken just as it gets near my area. Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6805

216. RitaEvac 10:06 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97: I have had a storm coming right at me only to turn or weaken just as it gets near my area. Been happening to me since August/September Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8912

217. plutorising 10:07 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac: If you're in Florida, let's hope this doesn't happen to some of you hahaha. happens that way in atlanta all the time. Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 73

218. wxchaser97 10:09 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac: Been happening to me since August/September I have had numerous near misses with strong to severe thunderstorms, especially in squall line events. I haven't had too many good storms in my lifetime really. Nor have I had a thunderstorm in general for a few months, hopefully I'll get some thundersnow. Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6805

219. MTWX 10:10 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting txjac: Link Massive blizzard causes SIX HUNDRED crashes and leaves one dead after dumping 16 inches of snow on the Twin CitiesMore than 600 crashes were reported in Twin Cities as of Monday morning with at least one fatality Snowfall also caused travel nightmare for those flying out of Minneapolis-St Paul International Airport Wow, hard to believe that there are that MANY accidents! Compliments of Daily Mail Without a winter last year, I guess everyone just forgot how to drive in snow... Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 22 Comments: 1215

220. wxchaser97 10:10 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2151 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CST MON DEC 10 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 102140Z - 102345Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED/WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED POTENTIAL HOWEVER SUGGESTS THAT WW ISSUANCE WILL REMAIN UNLIKELY. DISCUSSION...A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS HAVE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THE DESTABILIZATION HAS SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS NOTED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HAVING SAID THAT...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS GENERALLY MODEST...AND WITH LACK OF A CLEAR/OBVIOUS LOW-LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM...THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO A WEAK/BRIEF SPIN-UP OR TWO...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FROM THE STRONGER CELLS. GIVEN THIS...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6805

221. MAweatherboy1 10:12 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 509 PM EST MON DEC 10 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SANFORD... SOUTH CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LAKE MONROE...DELTONA... * UNTIL 530 PM EST. * AT 502 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SANFORD ...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * THIS STORM HAS A A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR THE APOPKA AREA AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALREADY COVERED BY A TORNADO WARNING SHORTLY. THE IMMEDIATE DANGER OF A TORNADO IS HIGH. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS DEVELOPING TORNADO ARE URGED TO QUICKLY PREPARE FOR ITS APPROACH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION! ACT NOW AS SECONDS CAN SAVE LIVES! PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET. KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY. EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF YOU ARE DRIVING AND YOU SEE A TORNADO IN THE DISTANCE IN FRONT OF YOU...SAFELY PULL TO THE SIDE OF THE ROAD WITHOUT BLOCKING TRAFFIC. DETERMINE IF THE TORNADO IS APPROACHING AND BE PREPARED TO ACT. IF A TORNADO IS IN THE DISTANCE BEHIND YOU...KEEP DRIVING AWAY FROM THE TORNADO AS LONG AS YOU ARE FAMILIAR WITH AREA ROADS. IMPORTANTLY...IF THE TORNADO IS NEARBY...IN ANY DIRECTION...ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE. DO NOT TRY TO OUTRUN A NEARBY TORNADO. AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE CLOSEST STURDY BUILDING OFFERS THE BEST PROTECTION FROM TORNADOES. MOBILE HOMES OFFER LITTLE PROTECTION. && LAT...LON 2898 8121 2907 8110 2884 8122 2870 8129 2885 8135 TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 249DEG 26KT 2882 8123 $$ Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6373

222. MAweatherboy1 10:14 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
This is all NE of Orlando: Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6373

223. whitewabit (Mod) 10:14 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting MTWX: Without a winter last year, I guess everyone just forgot how to drive in snow... I think they had freezing rain before the snow .. might have been a factor .. Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 323 Comments: 24111

224. acl8610 10:15 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
I had a feeling, since Saturday actually, that severe weather and tornadoes were going to occur in central FL this afternoon. When you have CAPE at 1500-3000j/kg, SRH 200-300, and an upper level disturbance moving over at peak heating, what did you expect to have happen. The guys at SPC have yet again under-forcasted a severe weather outbreak in FL. This time it appears to be an extreme example with no svr risks at all today on the Day 1 outlook... Member Since: October 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 57

225. wxchaser97 10:16 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: This is one of those days where I wish I had a GRlevelx radar product. It is one thing on my Christmas list though... Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6805

226. Maineweatherguy20023 10:16 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac: Been happening to me since August/September Forget that, I have a personal high pressure bubble that has been eroding squall lines since 2007. I have also deflected rainstorms and noreaster snow bands. So sad since I do like experience cool weather :( Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 149

227. barbamz 10:17 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
I know, it's at least annoying, nevertheless it's true. Death toll of Bapho/Pablo in the Philippines is still rising. Source with video: Typhoon Pablo toll: 647 dead, 780 missing Posted at 12/10/2012 8:40 PM It has been almost a week since Typhoon Pablo wreaked havoc in Mindanao, but its effects can still be felt until now. The official death toll has risen to 647 with 780 still missing. Those who survived are making the most of whatever resources are left. Ron Cruz has more. - Top Story, ANC, December 10, 2012. With that I call it a night from Europe. Stay safe with your severe weather over there! Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 1605

228. txjac 10:20 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97: My cousin in Minneapolis is having to deal with all this winter weather. Even though being from Michigan she is used to it it is still causing problems. I grew up in Ohio where we had lots of lake effect snow ...so I know how it can get. Used to love being snowed in though! Stay safe Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1566

229. JustPlantIt 10:22 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting barbamz: I know, it's at least annoying, nevertheless it's true. Death toll of Bapho/Pablo in the Philippines is still rising. Source with video: Typhoon Pablo toll: 647 dead, 780 missing Posted at 12/10/2012 8:40 PM It has been almost a week since Typhoon Pablo wreaked havoc in Mindanao, but its effects can still be felt until now. The official death toll has risen to 647 with 780 still missing. Those who survived are making the most of whatever resources are left. Ron Cruz has more. - Top Story, ANC, December 10, 2012. With that I call it a night from Europe. Stay safe with your severe weather over there! Sad:( Member Since: November 13, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 488

230. Chicklit 10:22 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
That system is headed straight for me over on the south beach in New Smyrna. Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

231. wxchaser97 10:23 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting txjac: I grew up in Ohio where we had lots of lake effect snow ...so I know how it can get. Used to love being snowed in though! Stay safe It makes for a good money making opportunity(snow blowing)though. I am sure she will be fine. I have, and still do, love being in the snow. Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6805

232. CybrTeddy 10:24 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Lots of rain on radar! No real cold front though, by the looks of it. Really hot for December so far. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20259

233. barbamz 10:24 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Last thing especially for Grothar (I see on "Community Activity" he's online, lol): Paradox of Aging: The Older We Get, the Better We Feel? Dec. 7, 2012 — Presently, there are about 40 million Americans over the age of 65, with the fastest-growing segment of the population over 80 years old. Traditionally, aging has been viewed as a period of progressive decline in physical, cognitive and psychosocial functioning, and aging is viewed by many as the "number one public health problem" facing Americans today. But this negative view of aging contrasts with results of a comprehensive study of 1,006 older adults in San Diego by researchers from the University of California, San Diego School of Medicine and Stanford University. Results of the Successful Aging Evaluation (SAGE) study -- comprising a 25-minute phone interview, followed by a comprehensive mail-in survey -- will be published in the December 7 online issue of the American Journal of Psychiatry. Read the whole thing on Science daily and all the best for our best agers! Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 1605

234. Grothar 10:25 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting barbamz: Nothing sensational, just winter business as usual (but unfortunately some people died nevertheless): 12/10/2012 Heavy Snowfall Winter Weather Brings Europe to a Standstill Winter arrived to much of Europe over the weekend as heavy snowfall blanketed the Balkans and Germany came to a standstill. At least six deaths were reported in southwestern Europe while Romanians struggled to get to the polls on election day. Read more on Spiegel online with a lot of pics for floridian snow lovers, lol. On my blog there is a photo of my neighbourhood, nothing sensational as well, just a calm winter scenery in an old town. Nice pictures. Like the image of those clouds in your previous post. (Sie sehen wie Kondensstreifen aus. ) LOL Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

235. LargoFl 10:26 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
at last its raining by me..lots of thunder and lightning coming too... Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

236. Grothar 10:27 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting barbamz: Last thing especially for Grothar (I see on "Community Activity" he's online, lol): Paradox of Aging: The Older We Get, the Better We Feel? Dec. 7, 2012 %u2014 Presently, there are about 40 million Americans over the age of 65, with the fastest-growing segment of the population over 80 years old. Traditionally, aging has been viewed as a period of progressive decline in physical, cognitive and psychosocial functioning, and aging is viewed by many as the "number one public health problem" facing Americans today. But this negative view of aging contrasts with results of a comprehensive study of 1,006 older adults in San Diego by researchers from the University of California, San Diego School of Medicine and Stanford University. Results of the Successful Aging Evaluation (SAGE) study -- comprising a 25-minute phone interview, followed by a comprehensive mail-in survey -- will be published in the December 7 online issue of the American Journal of Psychiatry. Read the whole thing on Science daily and all the best for our best agers! It is just that we forgot what it feels like to feel good. We think pains and aches are normal. I haven't felt good since 1962. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

237. Grothar 10:28 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting Chicklit: That system is headed straight for me over on the south beach in New Smyrna. Is is going "right over your house?" Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

238. LargoFl 10:28 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED AN * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN... SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA... PUTNAM COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...POMONA PARK...PALATKA... INTERLACHEN...EAST PALATKA... SOUTHEASTERN ALACHUA COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MELROSE...GAINESVILLE... SOUTHEASTERN BRADFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA... NORTHERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...FORT MCCOY...CITRA... * UNTIL 630 PM EST * AT 423 PM EST SKYWARN SPOTTERS REPORTED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME THAT MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS. A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

239. barbamz 10:29 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting Grothar: Nice pictures. Like the image of those clouds in your previous post. (Sie sehen wie Kondensstreifen aus. ) LOL Greetings, Gro, lol. Yes, "Kondensstreifen", we have a lot more near the Frankfurt international airport, not lol. But you know "Kondensmilch" as well, lol? J/K. The post above with the paradox of aging I've spared for you. Have a good night! Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 1605

240. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:30 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Active weather in Florida today. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25326

241. LargoFl 10:31 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
almost continous thunder out in the gulf headed my way.. Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

242. Chicklit 10:31 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting Grothar: Is is going "right over your house?" hopefully not, but raining pretty hard and lightening now. It's dark outside! Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

243. wxchaser97 10:31 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Active weather in Florida today. Tomorrow will feature more in the way of severe weather with a slight risk already in place for central and northern Florida. Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6805

244. LargoFl 10:33 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

245. LargoFl 10:34 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 524 PM EST MON DEC 10 2012 FLC117-127-102245- /O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-121210T2245Z/ SEMINOLE-VOLUSIA- 524 PM EST MON DEC 10 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EST FOR CENTRAL VOLUSIA AND CENTRAL SEMINOLE COUNTIES... AT 520 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A TWO STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...THE FIRST WEST OF DELTONA AND THE SECOND OVER EDGEWATER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND PORT ORANGE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE ANY TORNADO THAT MIGHT FORM. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE. && Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

246. LargoFl 10:37 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

247. LargoFl 10:40 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
possible hail also with these storms........... Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

248. KoritheMan 10:42 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Well there was a tornado within miles of me today. That's the second time this year, the other one being on March 21. The latter was the closest of the two. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 409 Comments: 15445

249. LargoFl 10:43 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan: Well there was a tornado within miles of me today. That's the second time this year, the other one being on March 21. The latter was the closest of the two. ..glad your ok, alot of severe weather today Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

250. LargoFl 10:44 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 539 PM EST MON DEC 10 2012 FLZ050-051-102345- HILLSBOROUGH-PINELLAS- 539 PM EST MON DEC 10 2012 ...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH AND PINELLAS COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 645 PM EST... AT 532 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF INDIAN SHORES...OR 13 MILES WEST OF SEMINOLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH WILL AFFECT BELLEAIR BEACH...INDIAN ROCKS BEACH...INDIAN SHORES AND BELLEAIR. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES. ...............this is going to come right over my house later lol..gee Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

251. Jedkins01 10:44 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Rather impressive, there is a lot of lightning out there for December, given such warm moist air and good surface CAPE it makes sense! Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

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