Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hurricane Sandy was not an extreme Black Swan hurricane

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:47 PM GMT on December 10, 2012

+35

I was in San Francisco last week for the annual Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), the world's largest gathering of Earth Scientists. Over twenty thousand scientists from all over the world, including many of the world's top climate scientists and hurricane scientists, were in town to exchange ideas to advance the cause of Earth Science. One of the more intriguing talks was given by Ning Lin, a professor at Princeton University. She and Dr. Kerry Emanuel of MIT are studying "Black Swans"--tropical cyclones that are a surprise to the observer, and cannot be anticipated based on the 162-year historical record. Very rare extreme hurricanes that one might expect to occur naturally once every 10,000 years are possible, and “climate change has increased the probability of such storms,” Emanuel said at a press conference last week. In terms of storm surge, Sandy was not a black swan, since the 1821 hurricane that hit New York City had a higher storm surge. Historical records recount that the water rose thirteen feet in one hour at The Battery on Manhattan during the 1821 hurricane. The water level did not rise as high as during Sandy, though, since the 1821 hurricane hit at low tide.

Lin and Emanuel used a climate model in combination with a detailed hurricane model to generate a large number of hypothetical hurricanes in the future climate, and generated 10,000 years worth of storm surge events. They then used a detailed storm surge model (ADCIRC) to evaluate the storm surge risk these storms posed. Their three case studies:

1) The Persian Gulf. No tropical cyclones have ever been observed in the Persian Gulf, due to the Gulf's low humidity and high wind shear. However, the Gulf has some of the warmest water temperatures on the planet, and could theoretically support a strong tropical cyclone. The researchers' modeling predicted a 1-in-248,000 probability that a strong tropical cyclone originating in the western Persian Gulf could move eastwards and bring a 7 meter (16 foot) storm surge to Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. Obviously, such an event would be extremely disruptive to the global energy economy, which relies heavily on the infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.

2) Darwin, Australia. In 1974, tiny but powerful Tropical Cyclone Tracy brought a 1.6 meter (5.2') storm surge to the city. Lin and Emanuel's research showed that a black swam tropical cyclone with a probability of 1-in-70,000 is capable of bringing a devastating 11.5 meter (38') storm surge to the city.

3) Tampa Bay, Florida. Only two major Category 3 hurricanes have hit Tampa: an 1848 hurricane that raised waters levels by 4.6 meters (15'), and a 1921 storm with a storm surge of 3.2 meters (10.5'.) A black swan storm moving from south to north just offshore could set up a resonance in Tampa Bay and generate a 13 meter (43') storm surge. Such a storm has a 1-in-14,500 chance of occurring in a given year. This would likely do over $250 billion in damage, I expect.

Figure 1. Damage to Bayshore Boulevard after the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane. The road leads to the Tampa Bay Convention Center from the south.

Figure 2. Track of the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921, one of only two major hurricanes ever to hit the city. This Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds brought a storm surge of 10.5 feet to Tampa Bay. A "Black Swan" hurricane capable of generating a 43' storm surge would not take a track like this, and instead would move from south to north just offshore.

Jeff Masters

Freak black swan? (Derek1)

All the other swans are on Lake Annecy are white - as far as I know - so where did this black one come from?

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601. kwgirl 4:08 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting pcola57: Just a foot note for you kwgirl..front went through here yesterday with temps in the upper 70's..now I'm at 45..quite a difference in temp coming your way.. It may not make it down here. But I'm hoping for at least a 10 degree drop. Any more and I'll have to break out my close toed shoes and sweat shirt. That's my winter wear!LOL Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1530

602. txjac 4:09 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Wow Nea ...thanks so much Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1612

603. calkevin77 4:09 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting overwash12: What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter! Well mine is not so much weird as scary. We were coming back from Cape Town South Africa. Stopping at one of the islands in Cape Verde to refuel during a 20 hour flight back to the US. This was back in Feb 2001. Anyways we encountered a microburst and the plane dropped rapidly. The captain came over the loud speaker telling flight attendants to secure the cabin. I could hear in the background the alarms going off. Needless to say things leveled out but I think 2/3rds of the passengers on the plane would have been able to be spokespeople for Depends…Myself included. Member Since: June 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 215

604. FtMyersgal 4:12 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
It is currently 76° in Fort Myers. Just heard a very strange sound for December. A big clapp of thunder! Hope some nice rains are on the way finally Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1053

605. overwash12 4:14 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting PalmBeachWeather: I have mentioned this before but....The Xenia Ohio tornado, April 3rd, 1974, 3:40 pm. Luckily we just got out of high school because Xenia High School was totally destroyed. Many injured people walking around in a daze..Everywhere we looked there was damage. My only thought was to go home . I lived about 1/2 mile from school. The roads were impassible of course. Everyone walking around. A train had blown off it's tracks and divided the city in half. I made it home luckily my parents had minor damage but they were ok. This story could go on and on but you get the idea... It was a living hell for the next few weeks. Many friends were killed and injured. I feel ya,I talked to guy who was in it and I was awestruck! Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1056

606. FtMyersgal 4:15 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1053

607. overwash12 4:17 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting kwgirl: It may not make it down here. But I'm hoping for at least a 10 degree drop. Any more and I'll have to break out my close toed shoes and sweat shirt. That's my winter wear!LOL I need to get down there soon,I love Key West! Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1056

608. kwgirl 4:19 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting overwash12: I need to get down there soon,I love Key West! Great slower time to come down is now before Christmas or after New Years before season cranks up in Feb. Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1530

609. AtHomeInTX 4:19 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting kwgirl: It may not make it down here. But I'm hoping for at least a 10 degree drop. Any more and I'll have to break out my close toed shoes and sweat shirt. That's my winter wear!LOL Lol. Sounds like us around here. :) Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3999

610. hydrus 4:20 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: Oooooh...So for every ounce of snow the GFS gives out, the ECMWF gives out a bigger severe wx chance: James Spann is not happy about any of this :) Cold core upper low; weatherman's woe. One week from today. Let's see if it holds up. The GFS is running. I am want see if it still has teo severe weather outbreaks..The goys at the SPC had this to say this morning... DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2012 VALID 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ALTHOUGH MODEST SPREAD PERSISTS AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA...CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS COMING FRIDAY/SATURDAY IS FAIRLY HIGH. HOWEVER...AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE ONLY BEING IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES... JUXTAPOSITION OF THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION REMAINS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN SO...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY...THROUGH ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WAVE MAY BE TO HELP ESTABLISH SUFFICIENT MOISTENING...ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF COAST REGION...TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WITH THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE SPREAD AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA...THOUGH...IS STILL MUCH TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY ASCERTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGION SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND GRAPHICALLY DELINEATE AN AREA. ..KERR.. 12/11/2012 Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14682

611. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 4:23 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

612. SteveDa1 4:23 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
My weirdest weather event would have to be the relentless freezing rain in January 1998. It literally freezing rained for 5-6 days. To make things worse, it was followed by a long cold period. Widespread total accumulations of 2-5 inches of ice in my area cut power for 3-4 weeks. It was amazing to see up to 4 inches of ice on sidewalks, streets, trees, and... well, everything! Image credit: Wikipedia Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 1057

613. overwash12 4:25 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting kwgirl: Great slower time to come down is now before Christmas or after New Years before season cranks up in Feb. I think it got down to 48 back in 72,everybody was freezing! No Heat! Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1056

614. clwstmchasr 4:37 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting overwash12: What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter! Jan 1977, snow here in the Tampa area. Got about 1.5". Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2777

615. HurrMichaelOrl 4:44 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
It also got down to 42F in Key West at some point in 2010, the all-time record low is 41F. It even reached 48F in Havana, Cuba a few weeks ago on a morning that was 45F here. I wish that cold front would hurry up and get here. The cooler than normal late October and November has left me not used to this warm, sticky weather. I like the "clean, crisp" feeling of winter. Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 604

616. Jedkins01 5:40 PM GMT on December 11, 2012
Quoting FtMyersgal: It is currently 76� in Fort Myers. Just heard a very strange sound for December. A big clapp of thunder! Hope some nice rains are on the way finally One clap of thunder? We had thousands of them last night here around the Tampa Bay area, literally. That cluster of thunderstorm last night at one point was producing around 5700 lightning strikes per hour, that's crazy for December lol. Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5420

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