Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on December 07, 2012

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The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.

November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Most extreme January - November period on record
The year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.

Jeff Masters

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1082. PensacolaDoug
4:34 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting superpete:


Excellent Doug/ I'll be there is 3 weeks/will send you a report from Imperial Bowl
SP




Highest lift in North America!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
1081. beell
3:54 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
12hr 500mb height falls AOA 30-60 meters over southern Mississippi/southeast Louisiana.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16895
1080. superpete
3:49 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting PensacolaDoug:





I'll be here at the end of January!


Excellent Doug/ I'll be there is 3 weeks/will send you a report from Imperial Bowl
SP
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 714
1079. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:47 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1078. bappit
3:46 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Breckinridge Colorado. I hit the slopes 1 week each year. Usually!

Global Warming Gives Ski Industry Chills

quoting:

"Winter as we know it is on borrowed time," Elizabeth Burakowski, a co-author of the POW/NRDC report, told The New York Times. The 2011/2012 winter season was the fourth-warmest on record since 1896 and had the third-lowest snow cover since record-keeping began in 1966.

"Winter temperatures are projected to warm an additional 4 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century, with subsequent decreases in snow cover area, snowfall, and shorter snow season. Snow depths could decline in the west by 25 to 100 percent. The length of the snow season in the northeast will be cut in half. All of this translates into less snow and fewer people on the slopes," the authors write in the report.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6107
1077. ILwthrfan
3:41 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Ridiculous warm start to December for Central Illinois.

Typically we see an average high of 42 degree F on Dec. 1st, transitioning down to 33 degrees on Dec 31st. To Date for the month this is what I have with climatology averages in parentheses. Our average lows are even exceeding our average highs climatology for this month to date.

Dec 01 - 62 (42) 20 anomaly
Dec 02 - 67 (42) 25 anomaly
Dec 03 - 70 (41) 29 anomaly
Dec 04 - 61 (41) 20 anomaly
Dec 05 - 46 (40) 06 anomaly
Dec 06 - 51 (40) 11 anomaly
Dec 07 - 49 (39) 10 anomaly
Dec 08 - 47 (39) 08 anomaly
Dec 09 - 51 (39) 12 anomaly

It has not rained much here in the last two months as well. Only 0.99'' in November and barely a half inch 9 days into December in what are supposed to be wet months for us. ~ 3.5" for December on average and ~ 3" for November.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1535
1076. DocNDswamp
3:39 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
837 AM CST MON DEC 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0656 AM TSTM WND DMG BAKER 30.59N 91.16W
12/10/2012 EAST BATON ROUGE LA 911 CALL CENTER

BAKER POLICE DEPARTMENT IS REPORTED WIDESPREAD DAMAGE TO
TREES AND POWER LINES ACROSS THE CITY. WILL UPDATE LATER
WITH ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AS IT IS RECEIVED.

0657 AM TSTM WND DMG BAKER 30.59N 91.16W
12/10/2012 EAST BATON ROUGE LA NEWSPAPER

MEDIA REPORTED A CAR WASH DESTROYED ALONG STATE HIGHWAY
19 IN BAKER.

0724 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 S BRUSLY 30.38N 91.25W
12/10/2012 WEST BATON ROUGE LA PUBLIC

TREES DOWN ALONG CELL LANE AND STATE HIGHWAY 1.

0736 AM TSTM WND DMG GREENWELL SPRINGS 30.58N 90.99W
12/10/2012 EAST BATON ROUGE LA PUBLIC

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALONG CANE MARKET ROAD IN GREENWELL
SPRINGS.

0757 AM TORNADO 6 S TYLERTOWN 31.03N 90.14W
12/10/2012 WALTHALL MS EMERGENCY MNGR

WALTHALL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A POSSIBLE
TORNADO ALONG SIMON ROAD IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY NEAR THE MS/LA STATE LINE. DAMAGE TO A BARN AND TO
THE ROOF OF AN OFFICE BUILDING WERE REPORTED.

0806 AM TORNADO 6 SE TYLERTOWN 31.06N 90.07W
12/10/2012 WALTHALL MS EMERGENCY MNGR

WALTHALL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A POSSIBLE
TORNADO ALONG AIRLINE HIGHWAY JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 48.

0811 AM TORNADO DEXTER 31.07N 89.99W
12/10/2012 WALTHALL MS EMERGENCY MNGR

WALTHALL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE TO A HOME IN DEXTER.


Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
1075. FtMyersgal
3:38 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
12 hour precip chart..yes we are going to get rain


Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
1074. MTWX
3:35 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting Pipejazz:


Not close yet. AKT SpaceWeather's report of the Goldstone Radar results:

"Measuring 5 km in length, Toutatis is one of the largest known potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) and its orbit is inclined less than half-a-degree from Earth's. No other kilometer-sized PHA moves around the Sun in an orbit so nearly coplanar with our own. This makes it an important target for asteroid studies.

Fortunately, there is no danger of a collision with Toutatis for hundreds of years. Radar observations should improve researchers' ability to predict the asteroid's trajectory even farther into the future. Goldstone will pinging Toutatis from now until Dec. 22nd. Stay tuned for daily updates."


2012 DA14 is the one to watch on the 15th of February...
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
1073. RTSplayer
3:34 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Radar under-estimating the rainfall between Hammond and Springfield, LA.

Says we got 3/10 of an inch so far.

Rain gauge says 3/4 of an inch.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1072. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:34 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
I know MA mentioned it yesterday but it seems there was a violent tornado in Arkansas.


2133 11 SW POCAHONTAS RANDOLPH AR 3615 9111 HOUSE COMPLETELY SHIFTED OFF FOUNDATION. SECOND STORY OF HOME REMOVED ALONG WITH ROOF. NEIGHBORS BARN IN RESIDENTS YARD. (MEG)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
1071. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:23 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting Pipejazz:


Not close yet. AKT SpaceWeather's report of the Goldstone Radar results:

"Measuring 5 km in length, Toutatis is one of the largest known potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) and its orbit is inclined less than half-a-degree from Earth's. No other kilometer-sized PHA moves around the Sun in an orbit so nearly coplanar with our own. This makes it an important target for asteroid studies.

Fortunately, there is no danger of a collision with Toutatis for hundreds of years. Radar observations should improve researchers' ability to predict the asteroid's trajectory even farther into the future. Goldstone will pinging Toutatis from now until Dec. 22nd. Stay tuned for daily updates."


alright
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
1066. RitaEvac
3:15 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
1064. Pipejazz
3:14 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Asteroid crash this Wednesday????


Not close yet. AKT SpaceWeather's report of the Goldstone Radar results:

"Measuring 5 km in length, Toutatis is one of the largest known potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) and its orbit is inclined less than half-a-degree from Earth's. No other kilometer-sized PHA moves around the Sun in an orbit so nearly coplanar with our own. This makes it an important target for asteroid studies.

Fortunately, there is no danger of a collision with Toutatis for hundreds of years. Radar observations should improve researchers' ability to predict the asteroid's trajectory even farther into the future. Goldstone will pinging Toutatis from now until Dec. 22nd. Stay tuned for daily updates."
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 183
1063. beell
3:12 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
All of these graphics should update after a page refresh (Meso graphics on the hour)




Left to right: 0-6km Shear / 0-1km Storm Relative Helicity / Mixed Layer CAPE
click for full image(s)

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16895
1062. RitaEvac
3:12 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
Texas has a freeze warning for tonight..........


SE TX will be in it if not tonight tomm night for sure
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
1060. Jedkins01
3:11 PM GMT on December 10, 2012





Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7836
1059. PensacolaDoug
3:08 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Doug, Where is that location? It looks wonderful




Breckinridge Colorado. I hit the slopes 1 week each year. Usually!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
1058. Jedkins01
3:07 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
Morning Jedkins..looks like we WILL get the rains yessss


Yes very high moisture levels are moving towards us, once this moisture combines with that approaching front we will see areas of very heavy rain and thunderstorms around the area. Expect summer like rainfall bursts.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7836
1056. Jedkins01
3:05 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Deep tropical moisture is surging up from the southwest towards Florida. Moisture levels this high are high even in the summer, but it is rare to see that much available moisture in December, its beginning to look good rainfall wise for us in Florida.



Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7836
1053. PalmBeachWeather
3:02 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting PensacolaDoug:





I'll be here at the end of January!
Doug, Where is that location? It looks wonderful
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5940
1052. Jedkins01
3:01 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting icmoore:
Good morning. The NWS has increased the rain probs here (Tampa Bay area, me specifically Madeira Beach) to 60% over the next 3 days and we really could use it. With the front predicted to stall we could see an appreciable amount (1-2") for the first time in quite some time. Finger's crossed :)

FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
407 AM EST MON DEC 10 2012
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERTHE NEXT FEW DAYS. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS TODAY WILL SHARPEN SOME AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OFLOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT.
FOR TODAY WE WILL SEE AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE GET PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS.INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO -2 TO -4 WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500J/KG.THEREFORE...WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POP UP ALSO. BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE FOG. AREA OF SEA FOG FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING OFFSHORE
SOME WHILE SHIFTING NORTHWARD...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY AND THIS COULD KEEP IT NEAR THE COAST FROM AROUND PINELLAS COUNTY NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
FOG WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL AREAS FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY NORTH PROBABLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S WHILE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INLAND AREAS COULD CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.TONIGHT THE POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. WILL PROBABLY STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SEA FOG FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AND MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE MORE DEEP MOISTURE SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING
FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES FAR NORTH TO NEAR 1.9 INCHES CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
APPROACHES SO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.




I for one am very excited considering how terribly dry it has been lately. I was beginning to fear a terrible fire season is coming because we had 40 inches+ across much of Central Florida over the rainy season months and now it has pretty much stopped raining and all the tropical foliage growth has dried out making for great fuel for wild fires. Hopefully we'll get some really solid rainfall the next few days.

I think the NWS has a better grip on this pattern then the other forecasts, the NWS has 60 to 70% each day, the other forecasts are saying 40 to 50%. Given very high moisture moving into place, plenty of lift and instability becoming available, I think 60 to 70% is a more accurate depiction than 40 to 50%.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7836
1048. RitaEvac
2:57 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
0.29" of rain from the front, deeper down the rabbit hole we go, gonna be epic for TX next year if it doesn't radically pick up.


Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
1046. dabirds
2:54 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
28 w/ 17 wind chill in S C IL this a.m. NW wind @ 12, gusting to 26. Sun hasn't peeked out since Thurs. Maybe this afternoon. No snow, looks like maybe a little to our South on radar.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 773
1041. AtHomeInTX
2:50 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting pcola57:


Yeah I was looking at the WU Wind Chill Map I posted in post #1015 and was thinking "They are feeling it this am"
Hope you got some kind of rain out of it..


Thanks. We did get a lot of much needed rain! :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
1039. pcola57
2:47 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
pay attention to your warnings today Pencola....


Will do Largo.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6893
1036. pcola57
2:43 PM GMT on December 10, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
thats good, I did mine last week just in case,this front is strong,hopefully the rains will reach me too....


As I look at it..IMO..it depends on where the sub-tropical jet and conus jet meet and if the sub goes South then your OK..(see post #1014)
Kinda "iffy" right now..
But it is a strong front..
Here's to your getting some moisture.. :)
(we need it here too but I'm looking for the cold as to alleviate some of the insect population in my area)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6893

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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