Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on December 07, 2012

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The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.

November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Most extreme January - November period on record
The year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.

Jeff Masters

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Morning everyone!

Good evening if you are around Aussie!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2585
681. Tuvon
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONE TROPICAL CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
10:30 AM RET December 9 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Claudia (959 hPa) located at 15.1S 74.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/W1.0/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 55 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 17.0S 74.0E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 20.3S 73.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.7S 73.9E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
The eye pattern has fluctuated over the past 6 hours with an more or less well defines eye. At 0600 AM UTC, T number averaged over 6h and 3h are respectly At 4.8 and 4.6. That is the basis for the present intensity estimate.

The system has moved slowly southwestward over the past 6 hours as the mid level ridge existing east of the system is strengthening, producing a northerly steering flow.The motion is still slow right now but is expected to gradually fasten within the next days.

General forecast didn't change since the last issue. On the forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being rather favorable during the next 24 hours. On and after monday afternoon, system should evolve over marginal heat oceanic content associated with stronger vertical northwesterly wind shear ahead an upper troposheric trough. From tuesday night, system should curve southeastward and start its extra-tropical process with winds that should remain strong before easing at the end of the forecast period.


Hades, where do you get these bulletins on Claudia? JTWC only posts every 12 hours!
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WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
___________________________

Extreme cold expected in North Dakota, specially along the Canadian border

Strong winds from the low pressure system responsible for the
snowfall is generating wind gusting up to 35-40 mph these
combined with cold temperatures in the 20s is making the
feel of temperatures way below zero...from -20 to -40F.



click pic for larger view
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
678. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONE TROPICAL CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
10:30 AM RET December 9 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Claudia (959 hPa) located at 15.1S 74.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/W1.0/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 55 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 17.0S 74.0E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 20.3S 73.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.7S 73.9E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
The eye pattern has fluctuated over the past 6 hours with an more or less well defines eye. At 0600 AM UTC, T number averaged over 6h and 3h are respectly At 4.8 and 4.6. That is the basis for the present intensity estimate.

The system has moved slowly southwestward over the past 6 hours as the mid level ridge existing east of the system is strengthening, producing a northerly steering flow.The motion is still slow right now but is expected to gradually fasten within the next days.

General forecast didn't change since the last issue. On the forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being rather favorable during the next 24 hours. On and after monday afternoon, system should evolve over marginal heat oceanic content associated with stronger vertical northwesterly wind shear ahead an upper troposheric trough. From tuesday night, system should curve southeastward and start its extra-tropical process with winds that should remain strong before easing at the end of the forecast period.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



you for got the end of the earth on the 21st


winter season/DOOM

Its doom...I wrote it on there
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
countdowns...
Winter Season/DOOM 12 days left
Christmas 16 days left
New Years' 22 days left

My B-day 8 days left



you for got the end of the earth on the 21st
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Geez... my eyelids are interrupting my finger action because I keep typing on the lashes... lol...

Think I better get into bed....


nite then... I'll be here for the next hours keeping the blog running
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
countdowns...
Winter Season/DOOM 12 days left
Christmas 16 days left
New Years' 22 days left

My B-day 8 days left
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Geez... my eyelids are interrupting my finger action because I keep typing on the lashes... lol...

Think I better get into bed....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
Quoting Grothar:


I was was on the other side of the pond for a few weeks so my hours are messed up. Usually the night shift has some interesting subjects but tonight it is really slow. I know you people are out there.
Gro, I just put down the reports I was dealing with about an hour ago... my brain is fried... lol... trying to figure out how to go to sleep and post in the blog at the same time is pretty hard when your brain is fried... :o)

On a more serious note,as part of the "wild weather" talk I saw earlier, I gotta say we got some seriously abnormal rain on Thursday. It barely rains here in December, and usually what little we get in in the form of relatively light, fastmoving showers associated with cold fronts passing through. That surface trough that went through here brought almost 12 hours of rain, torrential for about 3 hours on Thurday evening. Driving was a mess, and the effect was worsened because it's such an unusual event to have here. It seems to me [ haven't checked any stats, so this is mere observation] that we've probably had a near-average to below average year for the first time in about a decade. However, the weird thing all year has been the abnormal rain patterns.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Just looking after getting in from work....Cat3 to depression in 12 hours?! Wasn't expecting that..


I was very surprised too
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
someone earlier made a comment about a possible nor'easter hitting NYC by Christmas. Who has more info about it, or model runs???

I know it's too early
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting BahaHurican:
Besides... I'm supposed to be down... not up...

Are u on the other side of the ATL again? u seem pretty wide awake for 1 a.m.....


I was was on the other side of the pond for a few weeks so my hours are messed up. Usually the night shift has some interesting subjects but tonight it is really slow. I know you people are out there.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
Quoting BahaHurican:
Besides... I'm supposed to be down... not up...

Are u on the other side of the ATL again? u seem pretty wide awake for 1 a.m.....


Yes it is
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Grothar:
If everybody is up, why aren't you all writing something? Come on people, say something!
Besides... I'm supposed to be down... not up...

Are u on the other side of the ATL again? u seem pretty wide awake for 1 a.m.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
Quoting Grothar:
If everybody is up, why aren't you all writing something? Come on people, say something!
I got a guitarist 4 u guys: Joseph Spence.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
Quoting Xyrus2000:


wxmod does not understand the the principles of conservation of energy, nor thermodynamics. That's why he/she thinks it is trivially easy to alter weather and climate (which it is not, or we'd be doing it already). Indeed, unless you're conspiracy theory crazy, such techniques would have been used to dissipate or change the course of Sandy, Katrina, or averted any number of weather related disasters.





Well when it comes to a conspiracy theorist, or someone with an agenda, it doesn't necessarily mean he/she doesn't understand thermodynamics, its that they don't want to think about it.

Joe Bastardi is just one example. Obviously as a meteorologist, he would know basic principle of the green house effect and that adding massive amounts of CO2 is a problem. Yet he claims otherwise. It's not that he doesn't know, he doesn't want to think about it. Human beings are masters of self deception.


Of course, the dominant theory involved in biology today has some portion of conflict with the second law of thermodynamics. Yet many seem to act as if they don't know that, either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If everybody is up, why aren't you all writing something? Come on people, say something!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
Quoting Skyepony:
BOPHA looks shear beaten. Click pic for visible loop.


Just looking after getting in from work....Cat3 to depression in 12 hours?! Wasn't expecting that..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
661. BtnTx
I like the Weather Underground iPhone app.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
New study out about the tundra fires covering Greenland in soot causing melt with summers from here on having that melting Greenland like last because of the soot → less albino → melt → even less albino → greater warmth in the northern latitudes → causing more wildfires & soot.

Doesn't address it but some of that extra heat seemed to gather about that hot spot in the NE.

Wxgeek~ Judging by the SST anomaly no time soon..


Skye, I think you mean albedo. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
LOL Bielle!

AtHome, you're welcome!
Knew you'd enjoy Paul's virtuoso playing...
Quite an astounding talent, check out his versions of "Fly Me to the Moon", and on the other end of the spectrum, "While My Guitar Gently Weeps" (in his Beatles cover band, Yellow Matter Custard).

Okay, guess I better refrain from further off-topic guitar chat, unless weather is involved... Hmmmm, come to think of it - Hurricane Edith was passing across Louisiana on 9-16-71 while we were rocking the night away at the Warehouse in NOLA with the Allman Bros, Duane's last performance there... Yes he was, playing up a storm in a storm!
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albedo

That is from the Gulf Stream. Check out the Monthy Ocean Briefing.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6088
657. Skyepony (Mod)
New study out about the tundra fires covering Greenland in soot causing melt with summers from here on having that melting Greenland like last because of the soot → less albino → melt → even less albino → greater warmth in the northern latitudes → causing more wildfires & soot.

Doesn't address it but some of that extra heat seemed to gather about that hot spot in the NE.

Wxgeek~ Judging by the SST anomaly no time soon..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dateline Kerrville, TX - Weather/Attitude Update

Here in the heart of the Texas Hill Country, this little community is revelling in "Johnny Football" Manziel's Heisman Trophy award. My wife went absolutley bonkers. That's understandable since she retired as a Director of Career Services for Texas A&M and as the child of an Aggie Alumni, she has memories of watching John David Crow (the last Aggie Heisman winner) play football.

Oh yeah, the weather here in Kerrville. After the Heisman ceremony, I was out on the deck, in my shirtsleeves lighting off the BBQ. For the past month or more we've had daily high temps ranging from 8-12 degrees above normal and nary a trace of rain. The cold front tommorrow may bring us our first frost of the season, about 3-4 weeks later than normal.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well now that we've seen the one for the ages in NYC, does anyone wonder when fate will once again knock on Georgia's door?

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654. Skyepony (Mod)
2012DEC09 033000 5.7 938.1/ +2.7 /107.2 5.6 4.7 4.6 0.7T/6hr ON OFF -57.66 -68.44 UNIFRM N/A -15.30 -73.91 SPRL
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653. Skyepony (Mod)
More Claudia..
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652. Skyepony (Mod)
CLAUDIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
651. Skyepony (Mod)
BOPHA looks shear beaten. Click pic for visible loop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
650. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #108
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
12:00 PM JST December 9 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Bopha (1002 hPa) located at 18.4N 119.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.3N 120.2E - Tropical Depression in South China Sea
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Quoting DocNDswamp:
re: 633. CaicosRetiredSailor

Awesome post CRS, thanks!

re: 641. AtHomeInTX

Yngwie, of course! And an experienced listener can hear Ritchie Blackmore's influence thoughout his playing... Now, what about Paul Gilbert?
LOL...


Gotta admit, ya had me on that one. Lol. But just listened to Scarified. He/they were great! Thanks! Love finding new music. :)
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648. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #24
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PABLO (BOPHA)
11:00 AM PhST December 9 2012
==============================

"PABLO" has weakened further as it remains almost stationary

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Pablo [997 hPa] located at 18.3°N 119.7°E or 80 km west of Laoag City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast slowly.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon region
-------------
1. Ilocos Norte
2. Babuyan Gr. of Islands
3. Apayao

Additional Information
========================
Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere is now lowered.

Tropical Depression "Pablo" is expected to dissipate within the next 12 hours.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-10 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical cyclone

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern and central Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
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Quoting DocNDswamp:
re: 633. CaicosRetiredSailor

Awesome post CRS, thanks!

re: 641. AtHomeInTX

Yngwie, of course! And an experienced listener can hear Ritchie Blackmore's influence thoughout his playing... Now, what about Paul Gilbert?
LOL...


I think you win the prize!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
re: 633. CaicosRetiredSailor

Awesome post CRS, thanks!

re: 641. AtHomeInTX

Yngwie, of course! And an experienced listener can hear Ritchie Blackmore's influence thoughout his playing... Now, what about Paul Gilbert?
LOL...
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/11/su pplemental/page-1/

Looks like Des Moines, IA, takes the prize for most-above-average US city so far this year.

The January-November 2012 average temperature for that city was 58.5F, a whopping 5.3F above the 1981-2010 average of 53.2F.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32499
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wilmington, North Carolina has, so far, experienced its top-five warmest year on record.



http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/11/su pplemental/page-1/

Looks like Des Moines, IA, takes the prize for most-above-average US city so far this year.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3226
Wilmington, North Carolina has, so far, experienced its top-five ten warmest year on record.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32499
Sun is rising over Tropical Cyclone Claudia on the South Indian Ocean. There has been not much change in organization of the cyclone over the past several hours. It is forecast to maintain its strength for the next day or so before weakening over cooler sea surface temperatures. The cyclone is expected to move slowly southward and not threaten any land areas.

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Quoting nymore:
Lets not forget about Satriani or Van Halen or Clapton


All good but Yngwie Malmsteen is unbelievable! Ok, there's my reference no one will understand. :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ditto. And I'm not talking about the Pokemon.


Grothar:
The next thing you are going to tell us is that you never heard of Rudy Valle or Sophie Tucker!! Uhmp. Kids today.


It would seem that I fall somewhere in between these two references. Lol. :)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like KoritheMan got bannd

For less than an hour. I guess what he said could be considered a personal attack, even though I knew he was playing. That's just how we are.

But anyways...moving on. I'm scared of the hammer.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32499
Quoting nymore:


You said average to abnormally warm including Alaska. So I guess you mean average to abnormally warm in Alaska if it is included.

You may have missed this part

Alaska had its 13th coolest January-November since records began in 1918, with a temperature 2.0F (1.1C) below the 1971-2000 average

BTW nice try bringing the contiguous US with records set to try and obfuscate the point being made.
Face it you got caught making up facts. Now lets move along. Old friend

FWIW maybe you would like to edit your post to include the accurate information.


Congratulations... you've just discovered that weather & short-term climate variability happens in Alaska. In case you were wondering, it is not usual - nor will it be unusual in 50 years - for an area of about 0.3% of the earth's surface to experience cooler-than-average temperatures.

The climate trend for Alaska and the rest of the Arctic region is strong and statistically-significant, but as with all analyses of areas on a sub-global scale, the impact of oscillations/cycles/noise is stronger.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3226
looks like KoritheMan got bannd
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Quoting wxchaser97:

And there is no point in doing that.



lol
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Quoting Tazmanian:




you been reported

And there is no point in doing that.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7956
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Shut up with your nonsense.




you been reported
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The late philosopher and psychologist Erich Fromm wrote in the 50s that if prevailing trends that put economic production before human engagement continued, we would all eventually occupy a dangerously unbalanced society, peopled by alienated individuals living atomised existences, lacking in empathy, quick to judge because judgment by others is always anticipated, equipped with "the greatest material power without the wisdom to use it". What might halt the march to misery, he argued idealistically in The Sane Society, was sharing experience, living by "love, reason and faith".

Certainly, in the decades since then, aided more recently by the instant opinionator Twitter, blogs and social networks, our inclination to judge, critique, analyse, blame and scorn, often on the basis of next to no knowledge, has grown incrementally. We are propelled like narcissistic toddlers in a permanent state of tantrum to place ourselves in the centre of the dramas, scandals and terrible tragedies of total strangers. We cannot bear to witness a set of circumstances that remain private and resistant to our obsessive compulsion to know all and pass judgment, no matter what the consequences to the sometimes random recipients of blame.

Totally non weather related off topic link for above
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Now that I know you two better, Kori and TA, you are both stranger.


As you are, Isaac. But who says strange is bad?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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