Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history
The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.
November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.
Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Most extreme January - November period on record
The year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.
Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 — Blog Index
I think the relative lack of hurricanes striking the United States coast is mostly attributable to global warming, as the melting of arctic sea ice has become quite expansive over the last few summers. As I said before, this is an untested hypothesis, but at least I have the balls to admit when I have no evidence.
President Aquino distributes food packs on Friday at the evacuation center in Barangay Cabinuan, New Bataan, Compostela Valley to families displaced by the flash floods and landslides spawned by Typhoon Pablo. The typhoon is the worst to hit Mindanao in two decades.
From Inquirer
Vice President Jejomar C. Binay consoles one of the victims of Typhoon Pablo in New Bataan, Compostela Valley. Binay visited Compostela Valley, Davao Oriental and Surigao del Sur Thursday to assess the damaged caused by the typhoon and check on the conditions of those who were affected.
From Inquirer
Aquino declares state of national calamity
MANILA, Philippines - President Benigno Aquino III has signed Proclamation No. 522 declaring a state of national calamity due to the severe gravity of the damage wrought by typhoon "Pablo", according to Malacanang.
Compostela Valley, Davao Oriental and Davao del Norte in Region XI; Surigao del Sur in CARAGA Region; Lanao del Norte, Misamis Oriental and Cagayan de Oro City in Region X; Siquijor in Region VII; and, Palawan in Region IV-B were hard hit by the typhoon that left over 400 people dead and destroyed billions of pesos worth of property and crops.
The palace said the proclamation would hasten the rescue, relief and rehabilitation efforts of the government and the private sector, including international humanitarian assistance, and will "effectively control the prices of basic goods and commodities for the affected areas. Price control lasts for 60 days unless lifted.
The proclamation will also allow the granting of no-interest loans by government financing or lending institutions to victims and further affords local government units ample latitude to utilize their respective calamity funds, it said.
From Inquirer
FLATOUT BROKEN The view from the air of Boston town in Davao Oriental province shows the massive devastation wrought by Typhoon "Pablo" on Tuesday morning. The President said he will declare a state of calamity.
From Inquirer
"Pablo" victims "loot" shops to survive
NEW BATAAN, Philippines - Hungry and homeless typhoon survivors appealed for help Saturday as the ravaged southern Philippines mourned its more than 500 dead and desperate people in one hard-hit town looted shops in search of food.
Four days after Typhoon Bopha struck the major island of Mindanao, officials have struggled to bring in food and relief convoys through roads that had been blocked or swept away by floods and avalanches of rock, logs and mud.
About 4,000 residents in the destroyed farming village of Maparat had eaten the enclave's surviving chickens and were left with scavenging fallen coconut fruits, said nursing mother Virginia Dodres, 38.
I tried to breast-feed Mica, but they're dry from lack of food. So I gave her coconut water, and now she's down with colic, mother-of-four Dodres told AFP as she comforted her crying one-year-old daughter.
All the houses had been carried off by floods and survivors were sleeping 80 to a room on the bare concrete floor of the local elementary school.
They share the toilet's two stalls and are doing their washing and bathing at a nearby spring, which is also their only source of water.
Dodres said church workers with two big pots of porridge arrived Saturday bearing the first relief aid to Maparat, located a few kilometres (miles) from the devastated town of New Bataan. The food was gobbled up within minutes.
The village of flattened coconut and banana plants is linked by a muddy footpath to the main highway, where residents hung a hand-painted arrow with a crude sign on canvas that read: Evacuation Area. Please Help Victims.
Rescue officials said Mindanao's east coast accounted for all but 40 of the 546 known deaths from the strongest typhoon to hit the country this year.
More than 500 other people are missing.
At least 211,000 people are taking refuge at crowded government-run shelters, according to the civil defence office in Manila.
Military trucks brought scores of coffins into Maparat early Saturday, as unidentified corpses retrieved from under rubble piled up at a government yard.
Cedric Daep, a public safety specialist, said desperate survivors looted shops and warehouses in Cateel, a hard-hit town on the Mindanao coast in the early aftermath of Bopha's landfall there.
The food aid took so long to arrive that the locals broke into whatever building (was) left standing in search of something to eat, said Daep, who was sent to the south to help organise the disaster response.
Officials said damage to roads and bridges by floods and landslides trapped 150,000 people for three days in Cateel and the nearby towns of Baganga and Boston, where they said 97 percent of buildings were flattened or unroofed.
A Philippine Navy patrol vessel with 31 tonnes of emergency relief and 132 volunteer aid workers reached Baganga on Thursday, navy spokesman Omar Tonsay told AFP, saying he had not heard of the Cateel looting.
Daep said the region suffered its last strong typhoon in 1922, and had little expertise in coping with them.
You have to organise (pre-disaster) evacuation, relief distribution systems, and putting up temporary shelters They were not prepared, he said.
Daep said survivors needed a reliable supply of food, safe water, shelter and clothing.
From Inquirer
I prefer the cut and pastes.
Up here in Reykjavík, it's not looked at as "13 days until the end of the universe" - it's "13 days until the day length starts getting longer again instead of shorter" ;) At the solstice here the sun only gets 2 1/2 degrees above the horizon. Still another half an hour of daylight to lose before we get to that point, though.
In busy periods I just post links, but since it's not busy I post the whole article. Your lucky I don't post the whole National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) update report on the effects of Typhoon "Pablo"(Bopha). The current one is 31 pages.
You can read it here if your interested. The current cost of Pablo/Bopha is 4.170Bil Peso or US$101.81Mil. 459 dead, 464 injured and 532 missing.
Please, before you open your mouth, engage your brain first. You might not like it but your very much in the minority.
I re-read my comment and made changes, also found out I had made a mistake. i.e: Sandy
I didn't think I insulted anyone. Just said before people open there mouth they should engage there brain or they say stuff they might regret and can't take back.
I'm 600 miles south of Reykjavik. Sunrise is currently 8.30 am (GMT).
A typhoon that has killed hundreds of people and left tens of thousands homeless in the southern Philippines has turned back towards the country and will hit it again.
Weather forecasters said Typhoon Bopha will slam into the northern tip of the main island of Luzon on Sunday, packing gusts of up to 160 kilometres per hour, the state weather service said.
The powerful typhoon lashed the country's south earlier in the week, killing more than 500 people.
Civil defence office director Benito Ramos said it was likely to bring heavy rainfall to the area.
"People there need to take precautions," he added.
The eye of the cyclone was 230 kilometres west of the northern town of Sinait on Saturday afternoon (local time) and moving slowly northeast, the service said.
Heavy to intense rainfall was expected within the typhoon's 400-kilometre footprint.
Earlier a state of national calamity was declared in the wake of devastation caused by the storm system.
President Benigno Aquino says the state of national calamity will speed up the release of funds for rescue and retrieval operations as well as repairing damaged infrastructure in more than 20 provinces.
Under a state of national calamity, a price freeze on commodities is imposed and interest free loans are granted for affected cities and provinces.
Mr Aquino previously allocated $US200 million and is hoping to release additional funds.
Damage to infrastructure and agriculture is estimated at almost $US100 million.
Rescue officials say at least 540 people have been confirmed dead in the Philippines following the deadly typhoon.
Regional military spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Lyndon Paniza told AFP the region's armed forces had retrieved 506 bodies on the east coast of the southern island of Mindanao and around the southern town of New Bataan.
The civil defence office in Manila said 23 other people were killed elsewhere in Mindanao, along with 11 in the central Visayan islands.
The government agency said 383 people remained missing while the number of survivors who have sought refuge at government shelters has grown to more than 306,000.
Social welfare secretary Corazon Soliman said people who had lost their homes and livelihoods were flocking in droves to the crowded camps for food and shelter.
From ABC
For instance, instead of the simple paste-and-post in #299, he might have done something like this, which only takes a few seconds longer, doesn't necessarily break any laws, and would probably help keep him off some ignore lists:
------------------------------------------
Troubled UN climate talks spill over
ABC.NET.AU: International talks aiming to address global climate change have been extended amidst fears they may collapse altogether.
The talks in Doha, Qatar began in late November and were expected to wrap up late last night local time. The key issues under consideration were the extension of the Kyoto Protocol, which expires at the end of December, and aid for developing nations who will be most affected by the changing climate.
Dr Chuks Okereke, School of Human and Environmental Sciences at the University of Reading said: "The biggest stumbling block at the UN climate negotiations is the tension between developing and developed countries. From the developing world perspective the developed countries have failed in their commitments on three counts: domestic emission reductions; technology transfer; and, most crucially, finance. Climate change is ultimately a question of justice and those who have contributed the most should assume responsibility in solving the problem."
While expectations were low for the Doha meeting, the failure of the talks to drive the formation of a treaty has raised doubts about the future of the United Nations climate negotiations.
Source: Australian Broadcasting Corporation
nea also forgot to say that there was only 256 people who were at the 91% rate....nea gets his talking points from the tides foundattion.....it took me awhile but i figured out his mo....
From the AGU meeting. Written by Eli Kintisch for Science Now.
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA—Scientists are expressing fresh concerns about the carbon locked in the Arctic's vast expanse of frozen soil. New field studies, presented here this week at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union, quantify the amount of soil carbon at 1.9 trillion metric tons, suggesting that previous estimates underestimated the climate risk if this carbon is liberated. Meanwhile, a new analysis of laboratory experiments that simulate carbon release by thawed soil is bolstering worries that continued carbon emissions could unleash a massive Arctic carbon wallop.
Disappearing Arctic ice, which gets most of the attention from climate scientists, is an effect of humanmade climate change. By contrast, the melting of frozen soil, or permafrost, can drive warming. As it thaws, microbes devour carbon previously locked inside, unleashing carbon dioxide—a potent greenhouse gas—in the process. The carbon dioxide amplifies the warming power of carbon pollution in a vicious feedback loop.
....
Those logistical constraints have largely limited researchers' previous estimates of carbon to the top meter of permafrost. But scientists think that carbon down to a depth of 3 meters is susceptible to thawing and release as well. An influential 2009 estimate that Arctic permafrost held 1.6 trillion metric tons of carbon included only 45 field sites analyzed down to that depth. In the new study, Hugelius added 405 new analyses of field sites that went to 3 meters, some through new field work he and colleagues performed, some from archived data. Adding up the carbon found in different soil types he says, yields an initial new estimate of 1894 billion metric tons of carbon locked into permafrost across the Arctic, 13% more than the previous estimate.
After better quantifying the size of stored Arctic carbon, the next question for researchers is how much permafrost will thaw as the planet warms. A modeling study published earlier this year suggested that if global emissions trends stay constant, by 2100 permafrost holding 436 gigatons of carbon could thaw. But determining the size of the permafrost threat also requires calculating how much of the carbon in thawed permafrost will be decomposed by microbes and released as CO2. In a presentation at the meeting, soil biogeochemist Christina Schaedel of the University of Florida in Gainesville discussed that question. She analyzed nine previous studies in which researchers took samples of thawed permafrost to discover how much carbon would be released. In those studies, researchers incubated the soil in bottles at constant temperatures in their laboratories for a year or more. Over 50 years, she concludes, thawed permafrost could release 20% of its available carbon, a figure she called "a conservative estimate."
That could amount to a carbon pulse larger than 2 years' worth of global humanmade emissions. In terms of global climate change, the new studies show that "the actual situation is worse" than policymakers realize, says Peter Griffith, an ecosystems ecologist with NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The result could be an acceleration of impacts from humanmade greenhouse gas pollution: sea level rise, more intense droughts, and ocean acidification. "What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic," he says.
......
In terms of Arctic studies, "ice gets all the love," Griffith says. "That's because we have a very robust [satellite] capability for remotely sensing ice." To understand the threat hidden within permafrost, it's time for more scientists to get their boots dirty.
He has surprised me several times over the past years with very accurate long term weather predictions so when I read this on his related blog I thought it might interest those on this blog that monitor such things. His comments about the predicted ice levels in the 2013 Arctic follow.
"If La-Nina returns full blast, unlikely but if so, the melt in spring and summer time will crush 2012 great melt as a distant old record, the Pole will be sailable. If everything remains Neutral or warmer ENSO wise, the ice pack North Pole will be assailed once again by open sea water, 2012 record melt will be still exceeded."
So according to Wayne there will be no Arctic Ocean ice recovery year in 2013 but rather an even greater melt, perhaps much greater.
Not another wannabe blog police man, oh wait that's sexist, can't do that. Let me restate that. "Not another wannabe blog police-person"
Seriously, who give's a rats if there is credit given. If it's on the web, then copyright is lost.
Widespread Devastation Found in 2010 Amazon Megadrought
by Eli Kintisch on 7 December 2012, 6:27 PM
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA—A megadrought that struck the Amazon in 2010 devastated millions of hectares of the rainforest, new data presented here suggest. The results shed new light on a scientific debate over the effects of such recent climatic events.
Initial data released today at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union indicate that as many as one in 25 trees died in areas with the most severe water scarcity. The findings also suggest that previous techniques using satellites to measure drought stress in rainforests may be missing dire impacts of a warming global climate, which many scientists believe will cause more droughts in those critical habitats.
"To say the effects were severe is putting it lightly," says forest ecologist Gregory Asner of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Palo Alto, California, who led the research. Asner runs the Carnegie Airborne Observatory, which scans the forest from a slow-flying plane 2000 meters above the treetops. The $11 million scanner measures the shape and chemical signatures of the forest using lidar and a spectrometer, allowing scientists to identify individual tree species, determine their health, and measure their size and mass precisely—all from the air. The 2010 drought followed a similarly severe one in 2005 and a less intense one in 2007. "The whole system is stressed out and falling apart," Asner says.
More than a year and a half before the drought began, Carnegie scientists flew repeated missions over a 500,000-hectare patch of forest in Brazil and Peru. Rainfall data showed that roughly three-fifths of that area had gone through severe drought. The flights enabled the scientists to quantify tree loss "down to the falling branches," Asner says. The spectral data allowed the team to add 21 chemical signatures, including water content and leaf pigment, to assess the health of the forest. All told, Asner concludes, 4% of the trees in the severe drought area had died, a rate of mortality four times the baseline rate in areas with normal rainfall.
That rate is based on unpublished preliminary data. If it holds up under peer review, it could help resolve a long-standing debate over whether repeated droughts are harming the rainforest. A 2007 paper, for example, concluded from satellite data that rainforests may be "more resilient to climate changes than ecosystem models assume." Later analysis of the same data suggested no trend.
But Craig Allen, a forest ecologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Los Alamos, New Mexico, says the data from Carnegie's cutting-edge device "confirms other lines of evidence" that droughts are killing trees "from Alaska to the Amazon." The data "are bad news," he says, because they suggest climate change could dramatically affect forests in the next few decades. "This isn't a year 2100 thing."
Link
(See how percylives is doing it this morning? Providing links and attribution? It's the right thing to do. Sorry if saying so offends your "I'll steal whatever I want!" war cry, but it's the truth.)
Cheers, mate!
So why haven't I be banned?????????
If it wasn't allowed.
How do you know so many have me on ignore? How do you know, you hack there accounts, now that is illegal and unethical. What makes you think I actually care people have me on ignore. I have 170 handles on ignore so I probably have them on ignore already. Oh and don't call me Mate, you are no mate of mine.
so by not attributing who wrote the article or which source it came from, you call it stealing. Geez, If people ignore me for that. I'm glad. As I said. if it's against WU's terms of use, why haven't I been banned????????????
Take it easy, man.
Link
It has a 2 minute video embedded.
Hey Mate!
You know me, It take a lot to ruffle my feathers.
How are ya mate, had any rain lately?
That's a Grim situation there.
I have been noticing changes in forest vegetation here as well.
Particularly with trees flowering and fruiting out-of-season, due to rainfall changes, temp anomalies, and the like.
Trees make fruit (seeds) at particular times to coincide with optimum conditions for seed dispersal, germination and seedling growth.
When seeds are dispersed/sown at the 'wrong' time, they do not germinate or grow.
The forest will not be sustained if this is the situation.
dont let nea get to ya.....he is just mad because i found where he get's his talking points...he is having a bad morn...
Getting nice gentle showers all the time now.
Very nice sunshine in between.
All is good !
If that's the potential magnitude of the positive feedback from melting permafrost, it's absolutely trivial. She says it's a 'conservative estimate', but it would still be trivial.
Warming oceans becoming less efficient sinks for CO2 is probably of far greater importance. During the record El Nino of 1998, when global SSTs reached a record high, atmospheric CO2 rose by 3 ppm, a very large increase on the annual average.
This was equivalent to all the man made CO2 for that year remaining in the atmosphere. However, there was also rampant wildfires throughout Indonesia that year, which added a significant amount.
Nevertheless, 1998 shows us that we are not far from the point when the ocean not only has no net uptake of man made CO2, but will become a net emitter of CO2.
I doubt if the models factor this in, so it'll be hotter than they think.
We had a few showers earlier this week but since then it's just been hot and humid. 88% humidity right now at 11:30pm.
LOL, he ain't getting to me. He's just acting like a 5th grader.
what time is it there?
Evening Aussie. Good morning all. It's a humid and warm one here.
Fair
64°F
18°C
Humidity100%
Wind SpeedSE 5 mph
Barometer29.91 in
Dewpoint64°F (18°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
SHORT TERM...PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RANGE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. I DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS MY
GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUD COVER CONSIDERATIONS AND ONSHORE FLOW OFF OF
RELATIVELY COOLER GULF WATERS. THE LARGEST DEPARTURES FROM CLIMO
WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS HAS BEEN THE TREND WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASING. THOSE TEMPS COULD BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND COULD SET RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT HELD OFF DUE TO INCREASING WIND AND
INSULATING CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM...THE GFS IS FASTER ON THE UPCOMING FRONTAL PASSAGE
THAN THE NAM AND WAS USED IN THIS FORECAST. THERE IS REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE EURO ON TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH
THE GFS TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER. ANOTHER DEEP AND BROAD TROF WILL
DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK,
BRINGING A PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS SHOULD BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER A DRY AND COOL WEEK.
for the last 4 years it has been in the 80's!!
I can't remember which post it was specifically on, but within the last couple of weeks I replied to you and suggesting some ways you might look at this topic in a scientific way to actually test the hypothesis. :)
Freezing rain and black ice here. Fell in a car park yesterday. Worst fall I've had since I dropped out of a tree when I was a kid.
Usually, you wobble before you fall so you know what's coming. Not this time. I just went down like a sack of coal, with no warning.
Wrenched my hip and banged my elbow, but they're okay today. Luckily, my head didn't hit the ground, but I think my brain got a jolt, because I was dizzy when I stood up and had to sit back down again. Thought I was going to faint. That dizzy feeling took all day to wear off.
At 59, I don't bounce as good as I used to.
Damn!!! Glad your alright. If I fall, it would take me an hour to get back up, with my bad back and left hip.
stormchaser4850 Johnny Kelly
Snow coverage at 18.3% across the lower 48 states this morning, expected to expand further over next few days pic.twitter.com/I2Cb2jtO
Post #296.
I like it!! I'd love to see this kind of thing done in the US. The carbon tax/dividend would bring the regular consumer into the loop.
To see US progress, if you want to call it that, on the idea go the Carbon Tax Center site.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONE TROPICAL CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
16:30 PM RET December 8 2012
======================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Claudia (953 hPa) located at 14.5S 74.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/12 HRS
Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
25 NM radius from the center
Storm Force Winds
=================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southwestern quadrant
Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant
Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 15.5S 74.2E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 17.7S 73.9E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical
72 HRS: 21.4S 73.1E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
Additional Information
=====================
Shortly after 0600 AM UTC, Claudia has continued to intensify then DT has stabilized around 5.5. After 0930 AM UTC, Dvorak signature has degraded. From 1100 AM UTC, DT has again improved and has reached 6.5 just at 1200 PM UTC. 6 hours average DT is 5.5-. Current intensity is fixed at 85 knots just below the intense tropical cyclone stage that should be achieved so imminent.
The system keep a slowly west southwestward track as steering mid-tropospheric flow remains weak. In this context, Claudia should continue on this drift today. Except ARPEGE, numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement on this track within the next 12 hours. Sunday, the mid level ridge existing east of the system is expected to strengthen, producing a northerly steering flow. Therefore Claudia should track southward.
On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until Sunday night into Monday. Latest objective numerical guidance (ALADIN 0:00 AM UTC and STIPS 06:00 AM UTC) suggest a maximum intensity in the range of 90-100 knots within Sunday or Sunday night.
On and after Monday, system is expected to keep on tracking southward by getting around mid-level high pressures and so to evolve over marginal heat oceanic content associated with stronger vertical northerly wind shear. A weakening trend might start by that time. From Tuesday night or Wednesday, system should curve southeastward and start its extra-tropical process with winds that could remain strong.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #103
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
21:00 PM JST December 8 2012
=======================================
SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea
At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (965 hPa) located at 17.9N 118.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 8 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T4.5
Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.0N 120.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 16.7N 120.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 14.4N 119.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
I just hope that if it is proposed it should be voted on, unlike here, where the govt denied there would be a carbon tax before an election, even went on record to say there wouldn't be. Then announced there would be one afterwards, all because they had to jump into be with the Greens Party in order to gain power.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #21
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
5:00 PM PhST December 8 2012
==============================
Typhoon "PABLO" has maintained its strength and is now threatening the Ilocos provinces and La Union area
At 4:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [972 hPa] located at 17.5°N 118.3°E or 230 km west of Sinait, Ilocos Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots gusting up to 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast 9 knots.
Signal Warnings
================
Signal Warning #2
-----------------
Luzon Region
--------------
1. Ilocos Norte
2. Ilocos Sur
3. La Union
Signal Warning #1
-----------------
Luzon region
-------------
1. Cagayan
2. Calayan grp. of Is.
3. Babuyan grp. of Is.
4. Batanes grp. of Is.
5. Abra
6. Apayao
7. Kalinga
8. Mt. Province
9. Benguet
10. Pangasinan
11. Zambales
Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.
Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern Luzon and the western seaboards of central and southern Luzon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
5,398,498 people effected by Pablo/Bopha
464 Dead
465 Injured
702 Missing
19,964 houses were partially damaged
24,801 houses were totally damaged/destroyed.
Eight bridges and nine roads are not passable.
Fifteen municipalities and cities experiencing power interruption.
Six areas are experiencing interruption in water supply.
A total of PHP 5,980,118,696.02(US$145,998,995.17) cost of damages: PHP 2,464,581,800.00(US$60,170,455.57) damages in infrastructure, PHP 3,497,148,403.02(US$85,379,601.77) in agriculture.
Pretty pathetic lows though. Not much of a cold front.
It's not minority rules here so of course I will continue to post updates. Any news I see, I will post.
Viewing: 301 - 351
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 — Blog Index