Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on December 07, 2012

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The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.

November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Most extreme January - November period on record
The year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:
There are now 12 days until the 2012 winter solstice


I remember when there were only 13 days left. Seems like only yesterday.
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392.92ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for November 2012

co2now.org

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127647
Our environment is about to unravel, at a much faster pace than currently warned by science.

Here's one reason I suspect this:

I considered posting a warning this year, for the Philippines, which would be a first for this nation. I can count on two hands, all warnings that I've issued outside the U.S.

I had dreamed of a curious coin, with a certain mint mark on it. At first I thought it was a U.S. coin, but when I went to search for one that matched what I had seen, I couldn't find anything that closely resembled the design. The mint mark, however, was clearly an "M," which for a short time was used by the U.S. mint in Manila.



I stopped short of publishing the warning, because I decided that the "M" mint mark alone wasn't enough of a match for what I had seen, in terms of the overall design. This dream occurred a few weeks ago, and wasn't disaster specific, although during the course of publication, this would likely have changed.

I now wish I had gone ahead. It probably wouldn't have saved any lives, but might have help set a precedent for future reference.

In hindsight, I should have hand drawn the image of the coin I saw, which I concluded never existed, with the "M" mint mark. This might have given someone a clue, because these "M" stamped coins were only minted for a short time.
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There are now 12 days until the 2012 winter solstice
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127647
Looks like this will be the main batch of storms today:

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headed into the storm cellar - wish us luck
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Quoting wxchaser97:

You know they were in the playoffs last year right?


Actually, not. Like professional hockey, Professional football is a product designed for the low-brow breeding classes.
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Severe Studios‏@severestudios

Arkansas residents from SAGE to EVENING SHADE should be in tornado shelter now! (2:27pm) #arwx
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Decided I'll stay after all. Love you guys too much. Guess I'll just have to learn to tolerate the potential for mass genocide.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20001
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900
PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAPE
GIRARDEAU MISSOURI TO 25 MILES WEST OF PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL
AR ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
STRENGTHEN. A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF
A TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART
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Tornado Watch and Tornado Warning out.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31548
Severe Studios‏@severestudios

Tornado Warning for Izard and Sharp County in AR until 3:00pm CST. #arwx
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AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Damaging tstorms slamming northern AR; one tstorm just ripped the roofs off an apartment building and mobile homes near Viola
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tornado watch for Arkansas
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816. beell
Quoting Levi32:


I still think the CPC temperature probability thing is hilarious. By definition, on a computer model, a >50% chance of above normal temperatures corresponds to an above-normal anomaly. They are essentially equivalent.

The CPC also does issue raw T anomaly maps, I have discovered. For example, here is their current DJF anomaly forecast:



I do believe these anomaly maps are only available for the 3-month forecasts, however.


LOL, Levi. I think you have of 50% probability of being 100% correct.

I'll stick w/the 8-14.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16264
Quoting BahaHurican:
On a totally unrelated note, has anybody else watched that Gangnam Style video people have been talking about?

[trying real hard to think of a wx-related comment to add...]
Maybe I can help Baha....The south Korean rapper PSY said the temperature was much hotter than normal when he shot the video.
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For anybody that has missed the two..

Tropical Storm Risk 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

CSU Qualatitive Discussion for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31548
On a totally unrelated note, has anybody else watched that Gangnam Style video people have been talking about?

[trying real hard to think of a wx-related comment to add...]
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

Just gotta be careful, technically CPC is not forecasting above or below, they are forecasting the probabilities of the three categories... above, near average, below. So even showing the white color and now "warmer" indication, that is still saying that there is an equal chance of near average, above average, or below average temperatures in that zone - 33% of it falling in either category.

Quoting beell:


Understood-but worth some emphasis. I see these things pasted willy-nilly on the blog here. A low effort attempt at validation. Taken over 4 day periods, November's 8-14 day forecasts were not too bad. And a brief mention of "probability" given.

As a completely random, unscientific, and single spot check, the following are the actual average, normal averages, and departure from normal temps recorded by the NWS for Salt Lake City, UT-close to the center of the 80% probability of above normal average temps in the 8-14 day temp forecast above.


I still think the CPC temperature probability thing is kind of funny. By definition, on a computer model, a >50% chance of above normal temperatures corresponds to an above-normal anomaly. They are essentially equivalent.

The CPC also does issue raw T anomaly maps, I have discovered. For example, here is their current DJF anomaly forecast:



I do believe these anomaly maps are only available for the 3-month forecasts, however.
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810. beell
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Just gotta be careful, technically CPC is not forecasting above or below, they are forecasting the probabilities of the three categories... above, near average, below. So even showing the white color and now "warmer" indication, that is still saying that there is an equal chance of near average, above average, or below average temperatures in that zone - 33% of it falling in either category.


Understood-but worth some emphasis. I see these things pasted willy-nilly on the blog here. A low effort attempt at validation. Taken over 4 day periods, November's 8-14 day forecasts were not too bad. And a brief mention of "probability" given.

As a completely random, unscientific, and single spot check, the following are the actual average, normal averages, and departure from normal temps recorded by the NWS for Salt Lake City, UT-close to the center of the 80% probability of above normal average temps in the 8-14 day temp forecast above.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16264
Contrary to Des Moine, Iowa, the warmest city in the United States this year, and one that recorded its warmest January-November period on record (a 5.3F departure from the average of 52.2F), the coolest city of the year appears to be Bethel, Alaska, where the mean temperature in the January-November period was 4.9F below the average of 32.5F.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31548
Quoting beell:I would call the 11/21 8-14 day temp outlook a "fail" for missing the anomalous warmth centered over the Midwest and not much in the way of below average temps anywhere for the CONUS based on the reanalysis.

Just gotta be careful, technically CPC is not forecasting above or below, they are forecasting the probabilities of the three categories... above, near average, below. So even showing the white color and now "warmer" indication, that is still saying that there is an equal chance of near average, above average, or below average temperatures in that zone - 33% of it falling in either category.
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Quoting barbamz:
How Cold Will a Winter Be in Two Years? Climate Models Still Struggle With Medium-Term Climate Forecasts

Dec. 6, 2012 — How well are the most important climate models able to predict the weather conditions for the coming year or even the next decade? Potsdam scientists Dr. Dörthe Handorf and Prof. Dr. Klaus Dethloff from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association (AWI) have evaluated 23 climate models and published their results in the current issue of the international scientific journal Tellus A. Their conclusion: there is still a long way to go before reliable regional predictions can be made on seasonal to decadal time scales. None of the models evaluated is able today to forecast the weather-determining patterns of high and low pressure areas such that the probability of a cold winter or a dry summer can be reliably predicted.

Unfortunately it has been true for a number of years that the medium-range forecasts (like the ones seen on the CPC site) have little skill. They've tried adding climate model ensembles into the mix, but skill has not improved much. The models and the science can do a reasonable job over long time periods and can even give an idea of the climate variability, but when it comes to narrowing that down to specific regions and specific months/seasons, it starts getting iffy.
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806. beell


Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 11/17-Valid 11/25 through 12/01.
Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/25 through 12/01.


As a completely random, unscientific, and single spot check, the following are the actual average, normal averages, and departure from normal temps recorded by the NWS for Salt Lake City, UT-close to the center of the 80% probability of above normal average temps in the 8-14 day temp forecast above.

Date / Average / Normal / Departure from Normal
11/25 38° 36° 2°
11/26 39° 35° 4°
11/27 41° 35° 6°
11/28 47° 34° 13°
11/29 48° 34° 14°
11/30 54° 34° 20°
12/01 53° 33° 20°
NWS KSLC



Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 11/21-Valid 11/29 through 12/05.
Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/29 through 12/05.

(click graphic(s) for full image)

NCEP/NCAR Daily Composites
CPC 6-10 & 8-14 Day Data & Graphics Archive


I would call the 11/21 8-14 day temp outlook a "fail" for missing the anomalous warmth centered over the Midwest and not much in the way of below average temps anywhere for the CONUS based on the reanalysis.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16264
Quoting AGWcreationists:
The commercials that festoon this site are what allow Dr. Masters to provide free access for thousands of users. The commercials on network TV are allowing me to watch the Eagles stink for the ninth straight week. And the profit motive is a key motivator for someone such as Dr. Masters to create a website such as this in the first place.
Maybe without the commercial motive, people would do things just because they love to do them. However, this would be dependent on everybody getting what they need without having to pay for it - that is, you "give" the product of your hard work away, and live on / through "gifts" from others.

I see where MontanaZephyr is coming from... this is obviously a moral judgement so deeply ingrained in our thinking that people who act the way I just described are considered by the average person "crazy" or at best "odd".
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Quoting DocNDswamp:
Nymore,
Was lurking thru yesterday, ran out of time before could respond on your post concerning Fairbanks AK temp trends and while Scott L offered some helpful suggestions, you could also search thru NWS' own site - Alaska Climate Database...
As for suggestion of using Weather Spark, after perusing their data of my own local weather records (Houma LA), I would say in situations similar to this location, user beware - while it has a wonderful selection of detailed descriptions, averaging of data trends, awesome charts / graphs, unfortunately it was loaded with erroneous, misleading data (often from misplaced decimals or simple typos), missing data, and clearly a lack of quality control via a knowledgable human's corrections - particularly concerning KHUM arpt station which is not under NWS / FAA standards... the old addage applies here, Garbage In, Garbage Out... Sadly, one doing research on the internet will incorrectly source from this confounding mess... However, other stations that are properly supervised via NWS should offer reasonably good data from Weather Spark. As said, they do offer an impressive presentation - just wish my location's data was accurate, lol...

The official records that have much more QA/QC are daily records... max for the day, min for the day, precip for the day. WeatherSpark is kinda venturing into new territory by showing the hourly data, including hourly min/max/mean/percentiles. I've noticed quite a bit of erroneous data in there as well so it surely is a user beware. In general, however, you can get an idea of the character of your temperatures/rainfall/etc by using the site. It is helpful in that it can show a better representation of what "normal" is for highs and lows - it shows the 10th/90th percentile ranges so you have a better idea of the range of values you might see that have been averaged together to contribute to the "average" or "normal" value.

In the Fairbanks case, you can see that the 10/90th range overlaps for both highs and lows in winter. There is very little daily variation, so it makes having "highs not even reaching the lows" not as significant as it would be in other locations or at other times.
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803. Skyepony (Mod)
NOAA's Dvorak has Claudia even stronger.. 6.4 919.1/

Looks to be on the strengthening trend..



Thanks y'all for correcting my albedo/albino error lastnight. Good to see y'all knew what I meant. That was probilby my last 1/2 coherent thought for the night.
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Commercials interrupt nearly every form of public communication ...
The commercials that festoon this site are what allow Dr. Masters to provide free access for thousands of users. The commercials on network TV are allowing me to watch the Eagles stink for the ninth straight week. And the profit motive is a key motivator for someone such as Dr. Masters to create a website such as this in the first place.
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How Cold Will a Winter Be in Two Years? Climate Models Still Struggle With Medium-Term Climate Forecasts

Dec. 6, 2012 — How well are the most important climate models able to predict the weather conditions for the coming year or even the next decade? Potsdam scientists Dr. Dörthe Handorf and Prof. Dr. Klaus Dethloff from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association (AWI) have evaluated 23 climate models and published their results in the current issue of the international scientific journal Tellus A. Their conclusion: there is still a long way to go before reliable regional predictions can be made on seasonal to decadal time scales. None of the models evaluated is able today to forecast the weather-determining patterns of high and low pressure areas such that the probability of a cold winter or a dry summer can be reliably predicted.

More on Science Daily

Have a nice Sunday, everybody!
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Last Time the Detroit Lions Won in Green Bay...

The Lions last won at Lambeau Field on Dec., 15, 1991. No, that's not a misprint.

Here's a list of what was and was yet to occur in weather at that time:

No Doppler radar deployed nationally at NWS offices. The first so-called NEXRAD radar to be deployed for operational use wouldn't occur until June 1992.
The costliest U.S. hurricane was Hurricane Hugo. In the latest list from the National Hurricane Center through 2010, that means 17 of the top 20 costliest storms in the period 1900-2010 had yet to occur. Then, we had Irene ($15.8b), followed by 2012's Hurricane Isaac and Superstorm Sandy.
Incidentally, the director of the National Hurricane Center at the time was Bob Sheets.
The Perfect Storm had just raked parts of the Northeast over a month prior, not to mention a snowstorm of record for the Twin Cities and parts of the Upper Midwest.

...And what about the state of technology in December 1991?

Tim Berners-Lee posted a summary of the "World Wide Web" project in a newsgroup in August 1991. Wonder how that turned out?
First GSM cell phone network launched in Finland.
Apple focused on the NeXTstation, which flopped, shutting down the project in 1993.
This was over 3 years before Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin first met.
The CD-ROM was just coming into wide use in personal computers.

Here's what else was going on at that time:

George H.W. Bush was President of the U.S.
Mikhail Gorbachev would step down as Soviet leader 10 days later, on Christmas Day.
Dow Jones index closes month at record high of 3168.83.


Wheell I donta' know about that whole, a, new fangled thingy they call the world wide web, sounds like a sticky situation to me! The world is a changin too fast I'm tellin ya!
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Quoting trunkmonkey:


Just remember the 1st. Amendment doesn't apply here!
Really.

Freedom of association is implicitly implied in the
First Amendment. Dr. Masters and his admins are well within their First Amendment rights to set standards, enforce them, and ban people. And that does not even have to be content-neutral. If Dr. Masters were to decide he did not want AGW skeptical viewpoints on this forum, he would be within his rights to do such. And doing such is not censorship - censorship is when governments block certain points of view. AGW skeptics can set up their own blogs and post their opinions. It would only be a violation of the First Amendment if the government were to try and shut down skeptical blogs.
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798. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
22:30 PM RET December 9 2012
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Claudia (952 hPa) located at 15.8S 74.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 170 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 18.3S 73.4E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 22.4S 73.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 28.7S 75.5E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=====================
Eye pattern has again improved since 1200 PM UTC (better eye definition, top of clouds cooling). DT numbers averaged over 6hrs and 3hrs is 5.5. According to dT stabilized at 5.5, current intensity has been upgraded at intense cyclone minimal stage.

Claudia continues to move southward at about 4-5 knots. Environmental conditions are favorable with a weak northeasterly vertical wind shear (05-10 knots) on the western edge of an upper tropospheric ridge, and good outflow southward and westward. Sea surface temperature are still efficient (27C).

System undergoes the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge in its east. By 24 hours, Claudia should progressively accelerate and then it is expected to accelerate more rapidly, still on a southward track. Beyond 72 hours (Wednesday), system should encounter the mid-latitude westerly flow and curve southeastward.

For the next 12-18 hours, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable and system intensity should fluctuate around the actual intensity. Beyond, system might begin to weaken due sea surface temperature more and more cold south of 17.0S. On and after Tuesday, northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen ahead a high tropospheric trough. Wednesday, system should begin its extratropical transition. Winds could remain strong then begin to weaken at the end of the forecast period.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44864
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning folks..7-day, maybe we get rain this week??


It looks like our best shot in a while! We will have deep tropical moisture combining with with instability from an upper low and we will also be in the quadrant producing lift from a decent jet streak.

Basically it will be more of a rainy season pattern bringing rain instead of a winter one. With that said, some of us will probably see a lot of rain, and others not as much.
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Quoting nymore:


I was looking at Weather Spark, that is why I asked if that was unusual or not.

That you for the info and not making it a Climate Change issue as it was not intended as such.


You're welcome, hope you find that source useful!

Ha, I hear ya on the latter... Guess I might also get lambasted should I mention that my location in climo division 9 of SE LA and located on the Gulf coast - via num sources besides KHUM temp data - had a streak of 7 consecutive months of temps averaging at or below normal from May to November, as depicted on NCDC and CPC charts of Temp Departure from Average... now broken with the warm trend as we started Meteorological Winter... After a delightful, cool, dry and early Fall - just like our blue state brethren (LOL!) to our east experienced. Of course, we suffered thru the same outrageously warm 1st 4 months of 2012 that our annual average mean temp departure might well be above, esp now with a warm trending December. LOL, the cool down coming for us will merely get us back near normal / slightly below for 2-3 days...
Hey, it is what it is...
;)
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:


The Lions won this season?! Omg~ the endtimes are here!

You know they were in the playoffs last year right?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
Quoting Slamguitar:


If they can win just one more game this season (highly likely) I would want it to be this one.

Still gonna be hard.


The Lions won this season?! Omg~ the endtimes are here!
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
news...
WINTER STORM CAESAR....


they finally decided to name it


Good for them! :-)

To name a winter low pressure system of such little consequence underlies the cloying triviality of naming winter systems at all.

6 to 12 inches of snow possible across several counties! My! I'm sure that the residents of the to-be-stricken area are throwing their wrists skyward and running around in broken circles, screaming in panic!
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Quite a few storms already firing up in the slight risk area today, I'm a bit surprised the SPC is only anticipating a 40% need for a watch.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CST SUN DEC 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO NERN AR...SERN MO...FAR SRN IL...WRN
KY/TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091838Z - 092045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF SWRN INTO NERN AR...SERN MO...FAR SRN IL...AND
WRN KY/TN ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY SVR
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...THOUGH A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER CNTRL AR...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO CNTRL
TX...AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY RETREATING NWD OVER WRN/CNTRL KY. AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CONSOLIDATES AND DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NWD
INTO SRN IND/OH.

MEANWHILE...A 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ HAS AIDED IN TRANSPORTING LOW TO MID
60F DEWPOINTS ALONG AN AXIS FROM SWRN AR INTO WRN KY/TN. IN
ADDITION...POCKETS OF CLEARING OVER AR HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
LOCALLY WARM TO AROUND 70F...WHICH HAS AIDED IN BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AGITATED CUMULUS CLOUD
STREETS. WV AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE REGION...WHICH MAY INFER THE APPROACH
OF A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
FEATURE COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING...CONTRIBUTING
TOWARD SBCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1500 J/KG...MAY AID IN GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF THE CUMULUS FIELD OVER AR AND EVENTUAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS FROM WRN KY INTO SRN AR. IF CELLULAR
ACTIVITY CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
NEAR 50 KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. IF STORMS QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO
LINES ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN BOWING/LEWP
STRUCTURES WILL BE MORE LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR WEATHER THREATS WITH EITHER MODE OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE 30-40
KT SWLY LLJ AIDS IN EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES FROM 150-250 M2 S-2.

..GARNER/HART.. 12/09/2012
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Quoting nymore:
David Koch is devil, just look at what he does for science, education and the arts.

Source Wiki

Philanthropy

Since 2000, David H. Koch Charitable Foundation have pledged or contributed more than $750 million to further cancer research, enhance medical centers, support educational institutions, sustain arts and cultural institutions, and conduct public policy studies.[20][4] Since 2006, the Chronicle of Philanthropy has listed Koch as one of the world's top 50 philanthropists.[21]
Medical research

In 1992, Koch was diagnosed with prostate cancer. He underwent radiation, surgery, and hormone therapy, but the cancer returned every time. Koch believes his experience with cancer has encouraged him to fund medical research. He says, "once you get that disease and I've had it for 20 years almost, you become a crusader to try to cure the disease not only for yourself but for other people."[15] Koch says that his biggest contributions go toward a "moon shot" campaign to finding the cure for cancer, according to his profile on Forbes.[4] Between 1998 and 2012, Koch contributed at least $395 million to medical research causes and institutions.[22]

Koch sits on the Board of Directors of the Prostate Cancer Foundation and has contributed $41 million to the Foundation, including $5 million to a collaborative project in the field of nanotechnology.[23] Koch is the eponym of the David H. Koch Chair of the Prostate Cancer Foundation, a position currently held by Dr. Jonathan Simons.

In 2007, he contributed $100 million to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to help fund the construction of a new 350,000-square-foot (33,000 m2) research and technology facility to serve as the home of the David H. Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research.[24] He has given a total of $185 million to MIT since joining the MIT Corporation in 1988.[22]

$20 million to Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine in Baltimore. The building he financed was named the David H. Koch Cancer Research Building.[25]
$30 million to the Memorial Sloan%u2013Kettering Cancer Center in New York[26]
$25 million to the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston to establish the David Koch Center for Applied Research in Genitourinary Cancers[27]
$15 million to New York-Presbyterian Hospital Weill Cornell Medical Center[28]
$5 million to the House Ear Institute, in Los Angeles, to create a center for hearing restoration[21]
$25 million to the Hospital for Special Surgery in New York City[29]

Arts

In July 2008, Koch pledged $100 million over 10 years to renovate the New York State Theater in the Lincoln Center for the Performing Arts (now called the David H. Koch Theater),[30] and has pledged $10 million to renovate the outdoor fountains at the Metropolitan Museum of Art.[31]

Koch has been a trustee of the American Ballet Theater for 25 years[32] and has contributed more than $6 million to the theater.[33]
Education

Koch contributed $7 million to the Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) show Nova,[34] and is a contributor to the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, D.C., including a $20 million gift to the American Museum of Natural History, creating the David H. Koch Dinosaur Wing and a contribution of $15 million to the National Museum of Natural History to create the new David H. Koch Hall of Human Origins, which opened on the museum's 100th anniversary of its location on the National Mall on March 17, 2010.[35] In 2012, Koch contributed US $35 million to the Smithsonian to build a new dinosaur exhibition hall at the National Museum of Natural History. [36]

Koch also financed the construction of Deerfield Academy's $68 million Koch Center for mathematics, science and technology,[37] and was named the first and only Lifetime Trustee.[37]

Koch gave $10 million to the Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory[38] where he was honored with the Double Helix Medal for Corporate Leadership for supporting research that, "improves the health of people everywhere".[39]



So, he knows how to launder his influence, it sounds like. Does that make all his other doings okay...?
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, the Koch brothers--in the guise of Koch Industries, one of the most anti-science, anti-democracy entities in the world today--has its fingerprints all over the group running the site, so I'd suggest a healthy dose of caution before venturing in.I wouldn't say this statement is necessarily true. I, for one, support all the amendments equally, and would fight to the death for each and every one. But having said that, there is a lot of disagreement on exactly what those two amendments mean. Some who'd like to see the establishment of a state-sponsored religion, for instance, think certain provisions of the First Amendment should be downplayed, if not stripped. And others don't believe the Forefathers' intent with the Second Amendment was that sixth graders should be allowed to carry concealed semiautomatic weapons to school. But I have to disagree with overgeneralizations such as the one you made.


In case no one has noticed, Amerika actually DOES have a state sponsored religion: Craven Consumerism coupled with Money Greed.

I know I know, that sounds strident at first think. ... but look at it: ALL ELSE must yield to its demands! Commercials interrupt nearly every form of public communication ... will probably soon be in every form of electronic private communication. Many commercial operations are open every day of the year, some 24/7. People have status not according to any morals they display, but by what their income is and how many toys they have. The bankers and credit bureaus pronouce on one's level of sanctity and social worthiness. There is no operation safe from privatization and commoditization: Schools, prisons, roads, hospitals, universities, the arts, body parts .... all must make way to become exposed to predatory manipulation.

I could go on, but but who wants to rant. Something to think about though.
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Quoting DocNDswamp:
Nymore,
Was lurking thru yesterday, ran out of time before could respond on your post concerning Fairbanks AK temp trends and while Scott L offered some helpful suggestions, you could also search thru NWS' own site - Alaska Climate Database...

As for suggestion of using Weather Spark, after perusing their data on my own local weather records (Houma LA), I would say in situations similar to this location, user beware - while it has a wonderful selection of detailed descriptions, averaging of data trends, awesome charts / graphs, unfortunately it was loaded with erroneous, misleading data (often from misplaced decimals or simple typos), missing data, and clearly a lack of quality control via a knowledgable human's corrections - particularly concerning KHUM arpt station which is not under NWS / FAA standards... the old addage applies here, Garbage In, Garbage Out... Sadly, one doing research on the internet will incorrectly source from this confounding mess... However, other stations that are properly supervised via NWS should offer reasonably good data from Weather Spark. As said, they do offer an impressive presentation - just wish my location's data was accurate, lol...


I was looking at Weather Spark, that is why I asked if that was unusual or not.

That you for the info and not making it a Climate Change issue as it was not intended as such.
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749. 1911maker 4:39 PM GMT on December 09, 2012 Hide this comment.
Celebrate Bill of Rights Day on December 15!

Link

I have no idea if this sight is a good one or not. IT was the first one that came up on search.

For those of you not in the US, (and some in the US also) the bill of rights is not just about any one amendment, it is a complete document.

It is worth noting that the people (as a group) the most opposed to the first amendment support the second amendment. The people (as a group) who support the first amendment are very opposed to the second amendment.

These two amendments, more then any others cause the most political dispute in and division in this country. They tend to define the left and the right. In fact, they cause so much dispute, that my putting this post here will likely lead to a major political fight and I will get banned.

With that said, every one have a happy "Bill of rights day".


Relatedly Off Topic, This January 1st will be the 150 anniversary of the Emancipation Proclamation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nymore,
Was lurking thru yesterday, ran out of time before could respond on your post concerning Fairbanks AK temp trends and while Scott L offered some helpful suggestions, you could also search thru NWS' own site - Alaska Climate Database...

As for suggestion of using Weather Spark, after perusing their data of my own local weather records (Houma LA), I would say in situations similar to this location, user beware - while it has a wonderful selection of detailed descriptions, averaging of data trends, awesome charts / graphs, unfortunately it was loaded with erroneous, misleading data (often from misplaced decimals or simple typos), missing data, and clearly a lack of quality control via a knowledgable human's corrections - particularly concerning KHUM arpt station which is not under NWS / FAA standards... the old addage applies here, Garbage In, Garbage Out... Sadly, one doing research on the internet will incorrectly source from this confounding mess... However, other stations that are properly supervised via NWS should offer reasonably good data from Weather Spark. As said, they do offer an impressive presentation - just wish my location's data was accurate, lol...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is for Claudia:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 DEC 2012 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 15:48:53 S Lon : 74:16:55 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 938.5mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : -3.2C Cloud Region Temp : -74.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 135km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.2 degrees

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Soory for my last post..I thought you were referring to the entire 1991 year..:0


Its from weather.com anyway
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


It means a 5% tornado risk:


SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE SUPERCELL
AND BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES OVER THIS REGION CAPABLE
OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER. THE MAIN
TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM CENTRAL AR/SOUTHEAST MO INTO
WESTERN KY/TN.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A QLCS BY LATE
EVENING AND PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN MS/WESTERN TN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
Soory for my last post..I thought you were referring to the entire 1991 year..:0
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20539
783. beell
Grand Forks (ND) International Airport (KGFK)
Overcast with Haze and Breezy

-1°F (-18°C)
Humidity 79%
Wind Speed N 22 mph
Barometer 30.35 in (1030.2 mb)
Dewpoint -6°F (-21°C)
Visibility 1.75 mi
Wind Chill -24°F (-31°C)
Last Update on 9 Dec 10:53 am CST
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16264
The dry conditions in the SW are beginning to have more of an effect, critical fire risk for today and tomorrow in just about the same area:



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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