Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history
The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.
November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.
Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Most extreme January - November period on record
The year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.
Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.
Jeff Masters
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Never undersestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.
And this relates to weather/climate how...?
Here is the past track of Tropical Storm Patty. Not much to really say about Patty as she was pretty weak and short-lived. Once again, my TCR for Beryl will be finished sometime tonight or tomorrow morning.
Evening all... 30 second peek into the blog in between some data entry slogging....
Hope u guys are enjoying TGIF....
Heard it before, and even used it more than once, but doesn't it scare anyone?
What's the next thing "stupid people in large groups" will legalize?
Red sea a claws to celebrate on Christmas island
THE Christmas Island locals are getting crabby - and they couldn't be happier.
The famed migration of red crabs has finally begun, which means the residents of the Australian territory in the Indian Ocean off northern Western Australia now pack a rake or broom whenever they jump in their cars, and urgent "crab bulletins" are broadcast on the local radio station.
Consistent rain sparks the migration of an astonishing 120 million crabs from their burrows in shady shelters under forest trees to the ocean to spawn.
Sir David Attenborough calls it one of the most spectacular migrations on the planet.
A delayed start to the wet season had locals worrying, but now the rains have come, and crimson rivers of crabs are scuttling across the island.
"You know it's crab migration time when your see cars driving around with plastic rakes strapped to the roof or hanging out the windows," Linda Cash from the Christmas Island Tourism Association said yesterday.
"Rakes are the most efficient way of removing the crabs off the road without harming them. The local radio station broadcasts the crab bulletins to advise on the crabs' latest movements and roads where the crab numbers are thickest have been closed.
"Some people still use the environmentally-friendly palm frond and I've seen some gently coax the crabs off the bitumen with diving fins."
Rangers from the Christmas Island National Park have rolled out kilometres of plastic chutes along road-sides to funnel crabs through specially-designed grids which allow them to scuttle safely under the roads.
"You can never take it for granted, no matter how many times you see it, it's simply awe inspiring," long time resident Karenn Singer said yesterday.
Each step of the migration process is now well known and the island's female crabs are expected to be on the move for several weeks and then spawn en-masse and release billions of larvae into the sea on January 6.
Things seem to be shaping up to be active in 2013 once again.
How f***ing dare you say this s***. you should be ashamed of yourself. Go crawl back into you dark damp hole. Bopha killed innocent men women and children In there on homes and in evacuation centres. Drunk drivers kill only one place and that is on the road. Sure i wish every person that killed another while drunk driving should spend life in gaol, to bring Typhoon Bopha into an argument is just damn wrong.
YOUR IGNORED!!!!!
P.S There is only one demographic that decide to drive drunk and that the STUPID
"There are only two things in this world that are infinite: the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."
Seeing as how hurricane parties typically involve alcohol, the statistics probably increase disproportionately with hazardous weather above probability.
Aquino: Stop assigning blame for high death toll
NEW BATAAN, Compostela Valley—President Aquino on Friday flew into this town hardest-hit by Typhoon “Pablo” to meet with bruised and grieving survivors and promise them government assistance in rebuilding their lives.
Speaking to town officials and typhoon victims jamming a basketball gym in New Bataan, one of only a few buildings left standing, President Aquino vowed government action to prevent typhoon disasters.
“We want to find out why this tragedy happened and how to keep these tragedies from happening again,” the President told dazed crowds after arriving by helicopter and seeing most of the town obliterated by the typhoon.
Mr. Aquino said he came here to listen to the victims’ stories but asked them to refrain from assigning blame for the high death toll.
He said he was not satisfied with the level of preparedness and response of the government, both local and national.
“I will not stop, your government will not stop, to [ensure] a better life for you and [to] prevent this kind of calamity [from happening again],” Mr. Aquino said.
Gov. Arturo Uy said allegations that illegal mining and logging aggravated the typhoon’s effects were untrue.
Typhoon Pablo (international name “Bopha”), with center winds of 160 kilometers per hour and gusts of up to 195 kph, slammed into Davao Oriental on Tuesday morning. The most powerful typhoon to hit the Philippines this year, Pablo made landfall in Baganga town, flattening it and two other towns, and swept west-northwest, whipping Compostela Valley province as it cut across resource-rich central Mindanao.
The National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC) placed the death toll at 418 as of Friday, with 383 people missing and 445 injured.
The Office of Civil Defense in Davao reported the death toll in Compostela Valley at 223 as of Friday.
The Army’s 701st Brigade, citing a report from the provincial disaster risk reduction management council, said the death toll in Davao Oriental had reached 216 as of Friday morning.
Later on Friday, The Associated Press reported that the death toll had surpassed 500, with more than 400 people missing.
The NDRRMC said Pablo displaced more than one million families in seven regions in Mindanao and the Visayas, with nearly 50,000 families huddled in 569 evacuation centers.
Unsafe for habitation
As the President spoke, a yellow excavator tore into the rubble of a row of flattened houses a short distance away, allowing rescue workers to pull out the bodies of two more victims.
“They should not have built houses there,” said Interior Secretary Manuel Roxas, one of the officials who came here with the President, noting the place was a mining area, one of the many sites in this province that have served as a magnet for the nation’s poor but have been declared unsafe for habitation because of frequent and deadly landslides.
Roxas told reporters that more rescue workers, equipment and canine units, capable of sniffing out anyone still alive beneath the rubble, were being fielded in the worst-hit areas.
Mr. Aquino handed out cash and food rations to about 2,000 displaced families then took off in a helicopter with his officials to survey typhoon damage in Boston town in adjacent Davao Oriental. His visit here lasted 10 minutes.
State of calamity
The President said he would declare a state of calamity on the recommendation of the NDRRMC.
A declaration of a state of calamity will free government resources for speedy disaster response in the provinces ravaged by Pablo.
The civil defense office said more than 306,000 people had been left homeless by Pablo. The figure had risen by 56,000 from Thursday’s total, and Social Welfare Secretary Corazon Soliman said the government had appealed for immediate international aid for food, tents, water-purification systems and medicines.
“People have no houses to go home to so they are going to evacuation centers for shelter and relief goods,” Soliman said. She was part of the presidential party that visited New Bataan.
Those lucky enough to be inside the New Bataan gym received rice, instant noodles and tinned meat.
But Soliman said they faced being stuck there for months as the government looks for flood- and landslide-free places to build new shelters.
International help
The United Nations said it was prepared to provide humanitarian assistance and to mobilize international support to typhoon victims in Mindanao.
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon “extends his sincere condolences to the government and people of the Philippines, particularly those who have lost family members and who have been otherwise affected by this disaster,” Martin Nesirky, UN spokesperson, said in a posting on the UN news website.
“The United Nations stands ready to provide humanitarian assistance and to mobilize international support for the response,” he said.
Australia, Canada and the United States on Friday pledged to send at least P224 million in humanitarian aid to the typhoon victims.
The Australian government said it would provide P210 million. Canada said it would give P10 million. The United States said it would provide an initial $100,000, or P4 million, to help the victims.
Of the P210 million, Australia said it would immediately make available P38.5 million to the Philippine Red Cross for emergency family kits, which include sleeping mats, mosquito nets and water containers, and another P43 million to the World Food Program for 1,000 tons of rice.
Australia will also provideP4 million through the United Nations Population Fund for hygiene and health kits for people in emergency shelters.
The remaining P126 million will be made available for additional recovery and relief needs, the Australian government said.
Canadian Minister for International Cooperation Julian Fantino said his government, through the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), would give the P10-million aid through the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies to support the Philippine Red Cross in its efforts to deal with the emergency needs of the typhoon victims.
The US Embassy in Manila said the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) would provide the $100,000 aid through Catholic Relief Services to support the Philippine relief effort.
Pope Benedict
Pope Benedict XVI on Friday sent his condolences to the typhoon victims.
In a message to the head of the Philippine bishops conference, Archbishop Jose Palma, the Pope said he was “deeply saddened to learn of the loss of life and the suffering” caused by Typhoon Pablo.
Catholic churches will hold a second collection on Sunday to help the victims of Typhoon Pablo.
Churches in the Archdiocese of Manila, Archdiocese of Jaro and the Diocese of Cubao are among those making a second collection.
Fr. Anton Pascual, executive director of Caritas Manila, the social action arm of the Archdiocese of Manila, said on Friday the churches had been able to provide initial financial support to the dioceses affected by the typhoon in Tagum, Tandag and Butuan.
Residents of Compostela Valley began to bury their dead on Friday as rescuers continued scouring remote areas for survivors.
Bicol relief mission
A relief mission from Bicol, led by Albay Gov. Joey Salceda, leaves on Sunday for Compostela Valley and Davao Oriental to assist in the relief and rehabilitation efforts there.
The mission will provide medical, sanitary and relief sercies in Cateel, Baganga and Boston towns in Davao Oriental and New Bataan here.
Uy said rebuilding Compostela Valley would “take years and billions of pesos.”
He estimated that more than 70 percent of the province was devastated, with damage to agriculture alone placed at nearly P4 billion.
“The saddest part is that Pablo literally wiped out people’s livelihood. People depend on agriculture and it was that sector that was [hit so hard],” Uy said.
Education hit hard
Education has been hit hard, too. The Department of Education said nearly all public schools in Compostela Valley were damaged by Pablo.
Four employees of the education department in the Davao region were killed during the typhoon.
The department reported “heavy damage” to schools in the region, with “more than 90 percent of the schools in Compostela Valley alone” sustaining damage.
At least 30 schools in Surigao del Sur were damaged, 26 in Davao Oriental and 12 in Compostela Valley.
The other damaged schools are in Biliran, Bukidnon, Gingoog City, Iligan, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Oriental, Panabo City, Koronadal City and Tagum City.
More than 150 schools in the region are being used as evacuation centers.
DAVAO ORIENTAL—All seven passengers in the van-for-hire the Inquirer took in Mati City on Thursday had the same thing in mind—to reach either Baganga or Cateel.
Bancas were already made available to transport people and motorcycles across Manurigao River, where a bridge collapsed at the height of Typhoon “Pablo” on Tuesday morning.
“I’m worried about my family,” said Jessa, who requested that her last name not be used.
She traveled four hours from Davao City to Mati City and would travel some four hours more to get home to Barangay (village) Lambajon in Baganga town.
“I was informed our house was hit by a coconut tree,” she said.
Another passenger said she was carrying food, as she had been informed her family was growing hungry by the day.
“The last text message I received from my sister was that they were fine, but were already out of food,” she said.
There was no way for the two women to check out the information because telecommunication lines remained down since Tuesday morning.
The chitchat continued. This time, about the devastation and deaths caused by Pablo. But talk of the disaster was punctuated by “sabi daw” (to mean reportedly).
What really happened
But the ride to Baganga, which passed through the towns of Tarragona, Manay and Caraga, showed them what really happened.
Along the road in Tarragona were fallen trees. The drive through Manay town offered a similar view. But when the group reached Caraga town, they saw more fallen trees, damaged houses and a roofless town hall.
“That’s only a preview,” the van driver said. His passengers suddenly fell silent.
The group reached the cut-in-half Baogo Bridge in Caraga. For P50 each, people can cross the river on bancas and finally reach Baganga.
On the other side of the river, public vans and motorcycles waited for passengers.
There, too, waited the real horror.
In the coastal barangay of Baculin in Baganga town, trees lined the highway. Electric posts were down; cut cables littered the road.
Farther from the shore, up to the mountainside, were more fallen trees scattered all about like matchsticks.
Farther into Baganga town, more makeshift tents were set up by the roadside, just a few meters from houses destroyed by fallen trees. The houses had collapsed, as if crushed by giants.
Jessa, the van passenger, was right about her fears. Her village, Lambajon, was also hit hard. One of the houses with fallen trees leaning on them could be hers.
The sight at the town center of Baganga was even more disheartening. The school building looked like it had been clobbered by a dozen wrecking balls; the municipal gym had crumpled like a tin can; the town hall had lost its roof. And more houses had been destroyed.
In one village, people lined up in a makeshift stall to buy water—sold at P60 per liter.
Trees fell simultaneously
Some 30 kilometers farther, in the coastal village of Bajo, which borders Baganga and Cateel, a hill was littered with hundreds of fallen coconut trees—as if someone had done a very bad job of making crop circles.
“The trees fell simultaneously,” said Rafael Adiadar, 66, who lives with his wife just below the hill.
Adiadar, whose house was turned upside down when Pablo whipped through the province, said it took a few ticks of the clock for the gushing wind to topple the trees.
“The strong wind came from the sea. Moments later, it came back from the mountain. That’s when the trees fell down,” he said.
“We could hear them hit the ground,” he added.
In Cateel proper, the concrete arch was without the usual screaming banners. Typhoon wind had torn them away. The acacia trees that lined the road did not have leaves, only branches lifted up to the sky, as if in prayer.
Makeshift tents, some of them made from woven coconut leaves, lined the roadside.
The government’s district hospital—now without a roof, its wall blown away and flooded—had been condemned.
Outside, two government officials attended to injured people. In a corner was a table full of medicines, serving as the hospital’s pharmacy.
Too many people were seeking medical attention, making it a practically impossible job for the two doctors.
Utter chaos
The town center was a picture of utter chaos, with debris scattered all over. The commercial district was quite different from what it was before as buildings had collapsed. Those still standing had no roofs. The municipal hall, too, had lost its roof. So had the church across it. The police station was flooded. Only the flagpole remained standing at Cateel Cental Elementary. People were outside, sitting among the piles of debris from what used to be their homes.
In Barangay Maribojoc, about 2 kilometers from the town center, stood a house fronting the Pacific Ocean. It had lost its ceiling and some walls. Residents used to call it the “mansion” of Gov. Corazon Malanyaon.
Across the highway was a former community of 100 houses. There, Leopolda Casina, 48, started to build a shanty from typhoon debris, weaving coconut leaves for a roof.
“We’re equal,” Casina said when asked how she felt about the governor’s house being damaged by the typhoon.
Nothing for dinner
Traveling back to Mati City at sundown, the Inquirer saw Adiadar burying the last of four wooden posts that would serve as the foundation of his makeshift home.
“I can still use some parts of my old house,” he said.
Along the road in Baganga town, residents gathered outside their tents. No one was preparing dinner.
“There is nothing to cook,” they chorused when asked by the Inquirer why they were not preparing food although dinner time beckoned.
NEW BATAAN, Compostela Valley—A new “river” as wide as the highway belt Epifanio de los Santos Avenue (Edsa) in Metro Manila has sprung up here, indicating the watery fury of Typhoon “Pablo” has forever altered the landscape of this remote mining and farming town.
As the mud settled and receded into the many water channels crisscrossing the town, dazed villagers were shocked to find how the terrain had changed the morning after the typhoon hit on Tuesday.
What used to be a field of coconut trees and wooden houses in Purok (zone) 4 had turned into a gushing river flanked by rocks and boulders that had tumbled down the mountain.
“That river? It was not there before. Those rocks? All those came from the mountain,” Sebastian Mandantes, a resident of neighboring Camanlangan village, said in Cebuano.
“There is no name for that river yet,” he said when asked what the channel was called.
The rushing stream of water, according to residents, had “branched out” from another river named Calyawan at the height of Pablo’s wrath in the mountainous village of Andap, the most severely hit in the town of 45,000 people, and from which most of the more than 220 who died in the typhoon lived.
Coconut and banana grower Genovevo Valencia, 48, said Calyawan had become so swollen it unleashed a great torrent of water that stripped the topsoil, dislodged large rocks, and swept virtually all of Andap away, carrying people, trees and debris.
The muddy torrent finally crashed into the settlements below, depositing bodies from the village on the slope and felling coconut trees that looked like snapped twigs by the side of the “riverbank” the next day.
Some of the coconut trees were bent unnaturally, as though bowing toward the northwest, the very same path Typhoon Pablo had taken as it cut across Mindanao, a place thought to be safe from storms until December 2011 when Tropical Storm “Sendong” ravaged northern Mindanao and the Visayas, especially Cagayan de Oro and Iligan cities.
Pablo followed Sendong’s act on about the same date. It was the strongest typhoon to hit the Philippines this year, with more than 400 dead, 101 of them in New Bataan, and damaging at least P4 billion in agriculture and property.
Bodies here and there
On Friday morning, the new river in New Bataan was still flowing strong, as deep as a man’s waist and as wide or wider in places like Edsa in Metro Manila. Search-and-rescue teams were still at work, retrieving bodies that turned up here and there.
The river stretched as far as the eye could see, and villagers believed it was flowing into one of the many tributaries of Agusan River to the north.
For Feliciano and Alejandra Medrano, a couple in their late 60s living in Purok 8, an adjacent hillside community, it was a river of horrors.
“That river brought the dead from Barangay (village) Andap to our barangay,” Alejandra said. Only two people in their neighborhood died, but their community was distraught to find so many corpses in their midst.
In New Bataan, 127 people have been recorded as dead as of mid-Friday, and 398 remained missing, according to a tally at the municipal gym in the town center. Most of the 71 identified dead came from Andap.
The Medrano couple narrated their ordeal.
At about 6 a.m., a neighbor shouted at them to evacuate to higher ground, as their small wooden house did not seem like it could withstand the typhoon raging outside.
When they got out of the door, they saw that the floodwater was already high. The Medranos tried to cross to the other side to join their neighbors.
“We were locked in an embrace. But the water was too strong. We were swept away,” Alejandra said.
She recalled pulling her husband up each time he went underwater. Feliciano, who was using a stick as a cane, said he had arthritis, which made it difficult for him to wade through the flood with its strong current.
Chapel refuge
Alejandra said they eventually managed to pull themselves out of the water’s way and joined their neighbors in a chapel, where they lay huddled and waited the storm out.
As the current was still too strong, the villagers spent four days in the chapel, subsisting on rice and banana, with kerosene lamps to illuminate the place at night.
They collected water from a ground spring and rationed the modest provisions among themselves.
“We didn’t want to leave because we at least had bananas, and we knew that there wasn’t a lot of food in the evacuation centers,” their neighbor, Leticia Galo, 43, said.
But eventually, food and gas ran out, their cell phone batteries gave out, and many in the group had to make the difficult trek to the town center to look for food, medicines and fuel.
They also worked together to gather the decomposing bodies.
Feliciano said about 50 people still crammed the chapel, a couple of whom were too old to cross the new river, and many children too young to do so.
I wonder if Einstein would have smoked, had he known what we know today?
here's more good quotes:
Let's file them under "biggest blunders in the history of blunders".
What use could this company make of an electrical toy?
- Western Union president William Orton, responding to an offer from Alexander Graham Bell to sell his telephone company to Western Union for $100,000.
Radio has no future.
- Lord Kelvin (1824-1907), British mathematician and physicist, ca. 1897.
Where would NOAA be without telephone and radio (or radar)?
How is it even possible for someone to be smart enough to discover radio and prove what it is, but not recognize even one practical use for it?! Was it really all just an accident? Do we give these old guys too much credit or something?
Source
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20121208/0000Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC:CLAUDIA
NR:4
PSN: S1414 E07506
MOV: W 02 KT
C: 968 HPA
MAX WIND: 75 KT
FCST PSN +06HR: 08/0600Z S1420 E07449
FCST MAX WIND +06HR: 78 KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 08/1200Z S1425 E07430
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 80 KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 08/1800Z S1426 E07407
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 83 KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 09/0000Z S1430 E07351
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 85 KT
RMK : NIL.
NXT MSG: 20121208/0600Z
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
CYCLONE TROPICAL CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
4:30 AM RET December 8 2012
======================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Claudia (968 hPa) located at 14.2S 75.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 2 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24 HRS
Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center
Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center extending up to 50 NM in the southeastern quadrant
Gale Force Winds
================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the western semi-circle and up to 75 NM in the southeastern quadrant
Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the western semi-circle and up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 14.5S 73.9E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical
48 HRS: 15.8S 74.1E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical
72 HRS: 19.1S 73.8E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
Additional Information
=====================
Vertical winds hear constraint is relaxing (refer to CIMMS data) and Claudia keeps on rapidly strengthening (+1t/06h). It shows again since 1800 PM UTC a ragged eye on meteosat 7 infrared imagery. The mentioned final T-number is an average over the past 6 hours.
The system has slow down its current west southwestwards motion as the mid-level ridge is collapsing to its south, steering flow becomes weak. In this context, the system should continue on a slow westwards drift today. Erratic motion is possible within this time frame. Saturday night, the mid level ridge is expected to shift to the east and northeast of Claudia and strengthen, producing a northerly steering flow. System is therefore expected to track southwards under the steering influence of this aforementioned mid level ridge. A south southeastwards trend, suggested by some models, is now reflected in the current forecast.
On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until Sunday or very favorable due to two outflow channels on Saturday. This schedule should allow the system to regularly intensify. Latest objective numerical guidance (1200 PM UTC run of ALADIN-REUNION and STIPS suite of 1800 PM UTC) still suggest a max intensity in the 70-80 knots range Sunday or Sunday night. The present forecast is just above this estimation and remains in line with the previous forecast. On and after Monday, system is expected to track over marginal heat oceanic content associated with stronger vertical wind shear. A weakening trend should start by that time. Extratropical process is expected to start by late Tuesday.
MANILA, Philippines - With rains are likely to continue in the next few days, the state weather bureau advised residents of Mindanao yesterday to remain vigilant against flashfloods and landslides.
Aldzar Aurelio, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) forecaster, said an intertropical convergence zone would bring light to moderate rains in the next two to three days.
“Landslides are still possible because the soil is already saturated,” Aurelio said in a phone interview.
Meanwhile, PAGASA said tropical storm “Pablo” continued to move away from the country.
As of 4 p.m. Friday, the center of the storm was spotted at 530 kilometers northwest of Coron, Palawan with maximum sustained winds of 120 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 150 kph.
It was forecast to move north-northeast at seven kph.
The storm was predicted to be 495 km west of Iba, Zambales or outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility this morning.
“(Pablo) is expected to dissipate over the sea due to the cold weather,” Aurelio said.
Aurelio said Luzon, including Metro Manila, and the Visayas will continue to experience good weather aside from light rains in the next three days.
He warned operators of fishing boats and other sea vessels not to venture out into the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon and the western seaboard of Southern Luzon due to big waves generated by Pablo and the enhanced northeast monsoon.
Outbreaks expected
Meanwhile, the Department of Health (DOH) raised alarm over the spread of diseases in evacuation centers.
“This weekend, cases of diarrhea may start to increase. We may also see a rise in leptospirosis cases next week so we are assessing the capabilities of the health facilities in the area to respond to these situations,” said Health Assistant Secretary Eric Tayag.
“There is not enough water supply in the evacuation centers. Most likely, the water sources there are contaminated with garbage and human waste. A person actually needs at least 20 liters of water per day and that will be for drinking, bathing and other needs to maintain sanitation,” he said.
Tayag also raised concern over the lack of sanitary toilet facilities and the buildup of garbage in evacuation centers and areas devastated by Pablo.
He urged those who can help in the relief and recovery efforts and those who want to assist medical teams to first get in touch with the DOH.
“While their help is appreciated, we don’t want them to add to the confusion in the area... It’s still (chaotic) there,” he said.
The death toll from Pablo rose to 418 as of yesterday morning. Pablo is so far the strongest typhoon to hit Mindanao in the last 20 years.
Tayag said the DOH does not encourage mass burial.
“We have to give dignity to the dead and the family must have time to grieve for their dead for closure,” he said
President Aquino yesterday ordered an investigation into the evacuation procedures in New Bataan, where hundreds of residents were put in harm’s way instead of being moved to safer ground.
He ordered the Departments of Justice (DOJ), the Interior and Local Government (DILG) and Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) to investigate why the residents appeared to have been evacuated to flood-prone and dangerous areas.
During the briefing with officials of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) during his visit to the typhoon-hit areas, Aquino expressed disappointment with the way the people were evacuated, particularly in New Bataan, as the places were located in flood-prone areas.
He also ordered an investigation into reports that illegal logging and mining activities could have aggravated the situation in the disaster area.
Aquino also questioned why search and rescue operations were primarily done through asking relatives about the possible whereabouts of victims or survivors instead of scouring the area.
Aquino said he found it unacceptable that people were evacuated to harm’s way and said this practice must stop.
On preemptive evacuation and operations, Aquino said the investigation he ordered should tell the government how to minimize, if not eliminate, the casualties during situations like this.
Aquino said the evacuees were placed in an area with practically the same elevation as the river instead of higher areas in the mountains or hills since “the water will not go to the highest level, it will go to the lowest level.”
“So it could have been better. We could have probably designed it as safe as an evacuation center. But I want concrete basis of what happened and want less and less dangers for the Filipinos,” he said.
According to the NDRRMC, 5.1 million people were affected by typhoon Pablo and for Aquino, it was “difficult to understand” how the tragedy happened when there were supposed to be preparations.
The NDRRMC said Compostela Valley is a natural floodplain between two mountainous areas and “forest denudation” was also a factor.
Aquino ordered the DENR to investigate illegal logging activities in the region.
Aquino said the DILG would be supervising the local government units and the DOJ would look into potential criminal, civil violations of the pertinent laws.
“DENR will provide the necessary scientific facts for whatever conclusions are reached with the assistance of DOST (Department of Science and Technology),” Aquino said.
He said it was saddening to see Boston area where houses where left without roofs.
Aquino compared the extent of devastation in the town to that of Hiroshima in Japan, where a single atomic bomb flattened the whole town during the World War II.
“Which brings us back to the question: Where would the people go? I was trying to visualize what transpired. First, I imagined if I were there during the time that this typhoon was rampaging, it wiped out the whole community,” Aquino said.
He said the shortcomings must be pinpointed and it must be determined how things could be corrected, especially in rebuilding the community.
“It can be done. But there really has to be a commitment. I won’t prejudge anybody,” Aquino said.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #99
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
9:00 AM JST December 8 2012
=======================================
SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In South China Sea
At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (950 hPa) located at 16.8N 116.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 10 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0
Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.7N 118.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 17.0N 118.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.6N 118.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
It's going to be odd to have Greenland warmer then Europe for much of that.
The reason is an extension of the cold centered over Alaska.
Anomalies for Edmonton, Alberta.(No station within 30 miles is still around, many changed hands and half the years data is missing).
The approximate Anomalies(degrees C) are From Camrose/Wetaskiwin(40miles southeast of Edmonton)
January: +5.2
February: +2.6
March: +2.6
April: -0.3
May: -0.7
June: +0.5
July: +1.8
Aug: +1.5
Sept: +2.5
Oct: -3.8
Nov: -2.4
Dec -4C to -7C(based on the month so far and various long range forecasts)
For the year it ends up at +0.2C. Nothing to talk about. The record year I believe is 1987 at +2.7C above normal.
and now my snideness draws to a close for the eve, later all..
I'm pretty sure in your first rant on this topic that you apologized for being off topic, although after so many rants I can't be sure I remember correctly. We all know now that you are against smoking, alcohol, and pot. Fine and dandy, but that has nothing at all to do with the blog topic and you are clearly in violation of the blog rules. You have the right to rant, but if you want to do so, please, do it on your own blog. All you are accomplishing here is annoying a lot of folks and getting placed on ignore list.
If you have a problem with pot smoke poisoning the air, I suggest you take it up with the DEA. They burn a lot of the stuff every year.
I've been patient, probably more so than most others here, but any further post on this topic will be reported to Admin.
Just get back on topic. You've probably already been added to a countless number of people's ignore lists and reported many more times.
I've been watching Bopah and the surroundings all day. The weather modification going on there is fairly obvious. Who is doing it and what their intentions are is not so obvious.
Who is the "we" you refer to? I only see you, one person who thinks you own the word "sensible".
Bopha is still a potent typhoon that will affect the Northern Philippines. Can some people just focus back on the topic of the blog and weather? Because what is going on now isn't fun to me.
by Eli Kintisch on 7 December 2012, 6:27 PM
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA—A megadrought that struck the Amazon in 2010 devastated millions of hectares of the rainforest, new data presented here suggest. The results shed new light on a scientific debate over the effects of such recent climatic events.
Initial data released today at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union indicate that as many as one in 25 trees died in areas with the most severe water scarcity. The findings also suggest that previous techniques using satellites to measure drought stress in rainforests may be missing dire impacts of a warming global climate, which many scientists believe will cause more droughts in those critical habitats.
...
http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2012/12/wid espread-devastation-found-in-.html?ref=hp
AMEN !
You said that very well. I would have been far less Diplomatic.
Well, I am naughty by nature, so I make a real effort to be nice.
See you all tomorrow.
Actually, I am another 'we'.
You keep posting these images of the clouds, and you keep suggesting that they are some kind of Plot to do something or the other. I'm not sure what.
Have you any reason for doing this?
Have you any idea what it is, and can you give me a credible explanation?
With thanks.
in all my searches about your conspiratorial accusations that agencies control (CONTROL) weather via air traffic, i have seen Zero evidence of successful control over the course of a tropical system. that claim you make lacks sense from every analytical standpoint, objectively, unless you can produce anything that exposes this phenomenal supposed skill humans have at sending astronomical amount of joules to the place of their desire.
yeah, weather can indeed be impacted by human activity, but heck no we DO NOT have "control" over the paths of complexly massive tropical cyclones.
you don't even spell Bopha right.
..and surprise, the image you posted was Not a 'rocket chemtrail' but just a ridge of cirrus. if you did Any atmospheric analysis beyond your interpretive picture posting, you would understand that.
;)
ok, i'll stop making 'last snide comment' comments.. i mean, let's be honest ;)
937mb
Can you give me a credible explanation for why it bothers you hearing my viewpoint? The first devices installed on aircraft to enhance contrails became widely used in the 1930s. Weather modification experiments funded by large corporations began in the 1940s. Geoengineering experiments have been conducted in the open atmosphere for many years. Billionairs fund weather modification, as do local governments and water companies, because it is cheap and effective. Tell me please. Do you still use your 1940s encyclopedia, or do you think times have changed? The 'reason" I am here is because weather includes modification. It's just that simple.
I'm not trying to offend anyone. I think the technology is interesting.
According to the map you posted, Bopha is still in stagnant air.
30 to 40 knots of wind shear isn't exactly stagnant.
...UPDATED
_________________________
Southwest Alaska snowstorm
click for bigger pic
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