Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on December 07, 2012

Share this Blog
44
+

The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.

November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Most extreme January - November period on record
The year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 882 - 832

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22Blog Index

Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Ya, one or more of the people that police this operation have a trigger finger. Don't take it personally.
Hey, I got an hour off last night for getting after the resident weather modification conspiracy theorist for implying that his critics work for weather modification companies. Apparently impugning motives doesn't qualify as a personal attack but calling out how lame that tactic is does.

But being a moderator is often a thankless task, I am a mod on a large discussion forum and you never can make everyone happy. You can never get completely unbiased, fair moderation, everyone has their own viewpoints that color how they view possible transgressions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Pat, did ya'll actually get any rain yet?


Nada drop.

..yet.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127691
Quoting BahaHurican:
Doug.....



Duh what? I don't get it....
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
Quoting BahaHurican:
So schwimps are highbrow now?


LOL Baha,
I suppose that depends on which clientele is consuming them, when and where!
;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pat, did ya'll actually get any rain yet?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21598
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Define "low-forhead".
Doug.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21598
Fox viewer's?

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127691
..it's a tree shaker cher...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127691
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Your implied emotion indicates that you just might be a member of the population referred to... so your slowness to understand is perfectly understandable.

Here: This time I'll type it slower. Maybe that will help: There is a correlation between blood lust and low foreheads.


Define "low-forehead".
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
Quoting beell:


Probably should leave out the part about catching the frogs, Doc...




...or the really ugly part, thought was catching 2 frogs at once only to find those eyes attached to a single big, nasty gator! Man, took more than 3 swats with da paddle...
;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DocNDswamp:


Whoa there, hold up a second, bub...

I LOVES my schwimps, cher!
;)


So schwimps are highbrow now?

I thought they were just good downhome cookin'....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21598
NOLA had snow on Dec 24th 04, and Dec 11, 08



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127691
I gotta say, some of the most interesting and thoughtful conversation goes on here from time to time....

And that's only considering the off topic stuff...

@ Kori - finding the right balance isn't always easy. However, we sure hope u don't quit the blog.... some of old older and very old geezers would have to come over there to LA and kick ur but back in the blog.....

Stay cool, man, 'cause u know u r.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21598
Quoting Bielle:


You have snow? Our (southern Ontario) warnings have switched from 10 cm of snow to some freezing rain tonight, with a small warm front moving through Monday.


No snow here. It takes a really freaky set of circumstances to get snow down to the Gulf Coast. I will see some when I go skiing in Breckenridge at the end of January. I can't wait!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
868. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
Fried Frog's Legs

"Simple recipe for delicious frog's legs that are breaded with cracker crumbs and cornmeal, then fried in oil."


and hard to get up here .. but when you do they are some very good cookin ...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31280
Fried Frog's Legs

"Simple recipe for delicious frog's legs that are breaded with cracker crumbs and cornmeal, then fried in oil."
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127691
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



It's beginning to look alot like Christmas!


You have snow? Our (southern Ontario) warnings have switched from 10 cm of snow to some freezing rain tonight, with a small warm front moving through Monday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
865. beell
Quoting DocNDswamp:


Whoa there, hold up a second, bub...

I LOVES my schwimps, cher!
;)



Probably should leave out the part about catching the frogs, Doc...


Member Since: Posts: Comments:

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings



Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.


SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 340 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 331 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 330 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 321 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012
TORNADO WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 316 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012
TORNADO WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 313 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 305 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 258 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012
TORNADO WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 254 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 229 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012
TORNADO WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 212 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 205 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127691



It's beginning to look alot like Christmas!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
Quoting Bielle:


I'd make a wager that copying tweets from this hype site amounts to spam. Perhaps you should cease before there is a more formal reaction.


You should've heard him during Sandy, he was basically relaying the OMG GUYS THE WORLD IS COMING TO AN END!!!! message.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Luisport:
My God i can't belive on what i'm read!!! This is too important, but i will never ever post here!!!


See post 854 and prior. The warnings come from the NWS and are well represented here. Hype is not welcome.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bielle:


I'd make a wager that copying tweets from this hype site amounts to spam. Perhaps you should cease before there is a more formal reaction.
My God i can't belive on what i'm read!!! This is too important, but i will never ever post here!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bielle:


Do you have to be rude? "I am not a hockey or football fan" should suffice for an open blog. Your need to bruit abroad your supposed superiority is wearing, to say the least.


Sorry. Just good natured ribbing. Actually, while commercialism is the American religion, Hockey is the religion of Canada, so I really shouldn't be dissing it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Luisport:
Severe Studios‏@severestudios

SMITHVILLE, Arkansas should be in tornado shelter now! (3:16pm)


I'd make a wager that copying tweets from this hype site amounts to spam. Perhaps you should cease before there is a more formal reaction.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just wonderful...We have a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow night.As if I'm not sick of them all ready...They've been a pest this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


It happened twice after that. And it wasn't just my posts: a slew of others were deleted just for supporting me.


Ya, one or more of the people that police this operation have a trigger finger. Don't take it personally.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
855. Skyepony (Mod)
This may be Claudia peak.. NOAA dvorak has CI6.4 919.1mb.




Kori~ You sure it wasn't for quoting you?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37455
Severe Studios‏@severestudios

SMITHVILLE, Arkansas should be in tornado shelter now! (3:16pm)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AGWcreationists:
No, I was commenting on your decrying commercials. Commercials are what pays the bills on this site. Commercialism is what drives the global economy. I lead a pretty simple lifestyle but leave it to others to decide how they wish to lead theirs in that regard.


Commercials are one thing, and this site does not allow their abusing it, so far. If current trends continue, however, every substratum of data presentation will have commercialism embedded within it. Even the NWS (if it still exists and is not privatized) will have commercial notes embedded throughout it's forecast and other products. I can see it coming in the churches: "And now we move on to communion. But, first, a word from our sponsor!" Cop writes you a ticket but you'll get 10% off if you'll buy windshield wipers at Gaga-Mart. (Think it can't happen...? Think again. In many areas of the country, the roads are getting privatized. So will part or all of the functions of the justice system. It's coming.) YOU may get allowed a better credit rating if you allow to sell advertising space for your bank or some such on any and all of your personal expressions.... your drivers' lisence ... your car, maybe even your face.

We as a society are so far gone down the road of commercialism that it does not strike many people as vulgar and crass that serious broadcasts of every consequence and stripe are regularly interrupted so that some pimp can try to sell you sanitary napkins, pills, and over-processed food.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Severe Studios‏@severestudios

Tornado Warning for Butler, Carter, Ripley and Wayne County in MO until 3:45pm CST. #mowx
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Severe Studios‏@severestudios

Tornado Warning for Lawrence and Randolph County in AR until 3:45pm CST. #arwx
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:


So is trolling.


Whoa there, hold up a second, bub...

I LOVES my schwimps, cher!
;)


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Actually, not. Like professional hockey, Professional football is a product designed for the low-brow breeding classes.


Do you have to be rude? "I am not a hockey or football fan" should suffice for an open blog. Your need to bruit abroad your supposed superiority is wearing, to say the least.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Severe Studios‏@severestudios

Tornado Warning for Sharp County in AR until 3:30pm CST. #arwx
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
846. wxmod
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 12 days until the 2012 winter solstice


There are 180 days before 12 days to the summer solstice.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
Quoting Luisport:
Just head a report of a wall cloud with rotation spotted near Evening Shade, AR.....moving NE at 35mph....

A new warning is out for that storm:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
254 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN SHARP COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 330 PM CST

* AT 252 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF SIDNEY...OR 11 MILES SOUTH
OF ASH FLAT. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
POUGHKEEPSIE... NELSONVILLE... EVENING SHADE...
CENTER... STREET LAKE... HWY 354 AND 58...
BEN GAY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3600 9135 3600 9163 3614 9165 3620 9135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 257DEG 32KT 3607 9154

$$

/44
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7639
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Come on Kori, it was only for less than an hour.


It happened twice after that. And it wasn't just my posts: a slew of others were deleted just for supporting me.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20023
843. beell
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Actually, not. Like professional hockey, Professional football is a product designed for the low-brow breeding classes.


So is trolling.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just head a report of a wall cloud with rotation spotted near Evening Shade, AR.....moving NE at 35mph....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
804. ScottLincoln 1:33 PM CST on December 09, 2012

Agreed and well said, Scott.
I'd guess in the case of properly QC'd official NWS stations, Weather Spark should offer an excellent overview / review. I noted that too, on the periodic temp departure comparisons, offering insight on trends, etc...

But, as you're likely aware, the KHUM data and in general, the historical accuracy of weather records for Houma is now a mess. Good grief, the errors I found pertaining to KHUM were so numerous, I'd blow out the blog if I listed a fraction of them, lol!

Long story behind weather observations / records, changes in stations in Houma and who observed it (USDA for decades / over a century, not KHUM)... and I just deleted 3 lengthy paragraphs detailing my frustrations over the fact that Houma - the 5th largest metro in Louisiana - no longer is accurately or meaningfully represented.
Sigh...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh I'm still pissed. I'm just not going to be a baby.

Come on Kori, it was only for less than an hour.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31564
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Kori...Happens to me everyday. Get pissed, then get OK.. Happens


Oh I'm still pissed. I'm just not going to be a baby.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20023
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


You kind of flew off from the point I was making there. It sounds like you mean to say that since commercials are found on this site, that it is a good thing that the American Religion is Crass Consumerism and Greed?

Ehn~ We all have our value systems, I guess. We don't have to agree.
No, I was commenting on your decrying commercials. Commercials are what pays the bills on this site. Commercialism is what drives the global economy. I lead a pretty simple lifestyle but leave it to others to decide how they wish to lead theirs in that regard.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Actually, not. Like professional hockey, Professional football is a product designed for the low-brow breeding classes.
Excuse me? Please re-phrase so I really understand before my canine teeth start growing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just as the severe weather gets going I have to leave to go to a funeral home for my dad's brother in law's mother. I'll be gone for a little while. The weather outside is cold and wet(off and on rain), not fun.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
Quoting AGWcreationists:
The commercials that festoon this site are what allow Dr. Masters to provide free access for thousands of users. The commercials on network TV are allowing me to watch the Eagles stink for the ninth straight week. And the profit motive is a key motivator for someone such as Dr. Masters to create a website such as this in the first place.


You kind of flew off from the point I was making there. It sounds like you mean to say that since commercials are found on this site, that it is a good thing that the American Religion is Crass Consumerism and Greed?

Ehn~ We all have our value systems, I guess. We don't have to agree.

"Festoon". Heh. Funny that you use a word almost always associated with Christmas to make your point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
Decided I'll stay after all. Love you guys too much. Guess I'll just have to learn to tolerate the potential for mass genocide.
Kori...Happens to me everyday. Get pissed, then get OK.. Happens
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Maybe without the commercial motive, people would do things just because they love to do them. However, this would be dependent on everybody getting what they need without having to pay for it - that is, you "give" the product of your hard work away, and live on / through "gifts" from others.

I see where MontanaZephyr is coming from... this is obviously a moral judgement so deeply ingrained in our thinking that people who act the way I just described are considered by the average person "crazy" or at best "odd".


Actually, (See Margaret Hefferenen's book, Willful Blindness (Link), there are some pretty strong indications that money and the money motive pollute and corrupt every transaction that they touch. There is something, some sub-dynamic inherently antisocial in money itself. When you do an act of kindness, if someone offers to pay you for having done it, it degrades the having done it... see...?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 12 days until the 2012 winter solstice


I remember when there were only 13 days left. Seems like only yesterday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 882 - 832

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.