Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on December 07, 2012

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The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.

November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Most extreme January - November period on record
The year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.

Jeff Masters

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932. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
4:30 AM RET December 10 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Claudia (952 hPa) located at 16.3S 74.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 170 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 18.6S 73.6E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 22.8S 73.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 28.9S 77.1E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
For the last 6 hours, the eye has cooled and has become less clean, while top of clouds has warmed. DT numbers averaged over 6hrs and 3hrs is respectively 5.4 and 5.2. ADT is to high, but falling since 1800 PM UTC. CIMSS-AMSU estimation is at 95 knots. Current intensity is maintained at 90 knots.

System still undergoes the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge existing in its east. Within the next 24 hours, it should progressively accelerate. Beyond, it is expected to accelerate more rapidly, still on a southward track. Wednesday, system should encounter the mid-latitude westerly flow and curve southeastward.

Environmental conditions remain favorable with a weak northeasterly vertical wind shear (8 knots) on the western edge of an upper tropospheric ridge, and good outflow southward and westward. Sea surface temperatures are still efficient (27C), but from this afternoon, Claudia will evolve over more and more cool sea surface temperatures by going down southward. So system should begin to weaken rather slowly after has been reaching maximum intensity yesterday evening. Weakening is expected become more rapid on and after Tuesday as northwesterly vertical wind shear will strengthen ahead a high tropospheric trough.

Wednesday, system should begin its extratropical transition. Winds could remain strong then begin to weaken at the end of the forecast period.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
931. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Skyepony:
Lots of earthquakes on a cluster off Japan..


Those are after shocks from the 7.3 earthquake from last week ...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31214
930. Skyepony (Mod)
Claudia has gone a touch lower by NOAA dvorak..CI= 6.4 918.9mb.
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929. Skyepony (Mod)

The Port of St. Louis, one of America's busiest ports, seen on Wednesday, is the channel for large amounts of coal, petroleum-products and agricultural goods on a daily basis along via the Mississippi River. / Colby Buchanan, AP
Shippers are bracing for the closure of a 200-mile stretch of the Mississippi River that could bring most commerce on the vital waterway to a standstill, but the crisis could come in January, not this week as originally predicted.

Mark Fuchs, a National Weather Service hydrologist in St. Louis, says a new forecast indicates that water levels in that portion of the Mississippi could drop below 9 feet sometime next month. Shipping companies say water that shallow would make it almost impossible for loaded barges to navigate between St. Louis and Cairo, Ill.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just as an interesting statistic, $260-300 billion was lost during the last decade (2000-2009) because of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin alone. Hurricane Katrina contributed to a little under half of this.


The currency evaluation is a warped and insufficient statistic because of the crooked way foreign currency markets work. Also, Katrina hit a below-sea-level metropolis in the world's most developed nation. Most cyclones hit in less populated locations.

Anyway, if you evaluate human lives as well as the "real" damage done, rather than it's paper money evaluation in a crooked currency market, then Cyclone Nargis is obviously far worse the Katrina. Regardless of the currency evaluation and the IKE values, Nargis actually did about 100 times as much "real" damage.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Patrap:
Fried Frog's Legs

"Simple recipe for delicious frog's legs that are breaded with cracker crumbs and cornmeal, then fried in oil."

when i went to my favorite frog leg place on ponchartrain in metairie, i was told that they get frogs legs frozen, from china.
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926. KimD
Quoting KimD:
We are finally getting "it's beginning to look like Christmas" snow here in Santa Fe, NM. Until yesterday the highs have been in the 50's and 60's, the lows in the high 20s and low-mid 30s. A cold front moved in this morning and we've had about 3" of snow in the past 2 hours. The low tonight will be about 8 degrees, after record warmth all I can say is brrr.



Make that 6 inches in less than 3 hours...what an end to a very long dry spell!
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925. Skyepony (Mod)
Lots of earthquakes on a cluster off Japan..
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There's been a second report of a tornado in Arkansas from earlier today, it was likely the same one reported earlier since it was in a similar location. From the sounds of the report it must have been pretty strong.

This is the information from the SPC's storm report page:

"HOUSE COMPLETELY SHIFTED OFF FOUNDATION. SECOND STORY OF HOME REMOVED ALONG WITH ROOF. NEIGHBORS BARN IN RESIDENTS YARD."
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613
Quoting pottery:

Worldwide ?

I was in the process of editing my comment when you posted. This is just for the Atlantic.

And only for retired storms.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just as an interesting statistic, $272.5 billion was lost during the last decade (2000-2009) because of tropical cyclones. Hurricane Katrina contributed to ~40% of this.

Worldwide ?
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Just as an interesting statistic, $280.214 billion was lost during the last decade (2000-2009) because of retired tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin alone. Hurricane Katrina contributed to ~61% of this.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Go skins...hate Giants....
And my falcons lost today, we'd better beat the giants next weak and the skins better catch them and make the playoffs.
And the Falcons need to get the number one seed and win the superbowl....
Im rooting for the bears, seahawks, and redskins to make the playoffs, which means i need the skins to win the division :)

Big game for my Patriots tomorrow night... Ravens lost today so I'm happy.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Go skins...hate Giants....
And my falcons lost today, we'd better beat the giants next weak and the skins better catch them and make the playoffs.
And the Falcons need to get the number one seed and win the superbowl....
Im rooting for the bears, seahawks, and redskins to make the playoffs, which means i need the skins to win the division :)


Sounds like a recipe for some kind of stew.....
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Quoting washingtonian115:
My team is the red skins.I associate because I'm from the area and it's nothing like having a team represent your city/place.I know that football players are sold and are commercialized as well(like for shaving commercials).



Go skins...hate Giants....
And my falcons lost today, we'd better beat the giants next weak and the skins better catch them and make the playoffs.
And the Falcons need to get the number one seed and win the superbowl....
Im rooting for the bears, seahawks, and redskins to make the playoffs, which means i need the skins to win the division :)
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Titch!~ Touchy, touchy!

"MY team" ... sigh. It is a little saddening that people engage in ego-investment with mass-marketed products, but oh well. I'm human too. I guess if I had one of those $5,000 weather station packages, why, I'd grease my hair and strut down main-street like it mattered. So we're all the same in the end, eh?

Which is "Your" team...? And why do you identify with it? Hot uniforms? Cute guys? PLEASE don't tell me that it's geographic...! The players are bought and sold just like any other commodity.
My team is the red skins.I associate because I'm from the area and it's nothing like having a team represent your city/place.I know that football players are sold and are commercialized as well(like for shaving commercials).
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916. Skyepony (Mod)
Half suspect that Claudia keeps blowing up today on the north side since that is where the heat is. Almost surprising to see it raging like that in such low Ocean Heat Content.

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New severe thunderstorm watch for the Arklatex region. A couple storms are already severe warned so stay safe anyone in the severe threat area.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 678
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
EXTREME WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 550 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MONTICELLO ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HUNTSVILLE TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 677...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS NEAR FRONT...AS WELL AS CLUSTERED
CONVECTION TO ITS E...SHOULD POSE RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS THROUGH EVENING. MRGL SUPERCELL SCENARIO EXISTS FOR
DISCRETE/PREFRONTAL CONVECTION...WITH 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES BUT WEAK NEAR-SFC WINDS. EFFECTIVELY SFC-BASED PARCELS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z OVER MUCH OF AREA AS LONG AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OFFSETS DIABATIC SFC COOLING. TSTMS NEAR FRONT
SHOULD BE UNDERCUT QUICKLY...PER SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2141.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...EDWARDS
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Duh what? I don't get it....
NVM...

Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Maybe the software burped somehow ... it doesn't seem to have anything to do with reality. It is said to be 4 degrees F In Glasgow MT at the moment, 22 in Billings.
Shucks... u just ruined my chance to make a comment about some Wunderblogger spewing hot air and causing the anomaly....

lol

Besides, I seem to recall u r closer 2 the mtns...
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A freezing rain advisory has been issued for my area.

Freezing Rain Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
640 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2012

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...

.AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXPECT UNTREATED
SURFACES TO BECOME ICY...WITH ELEVATED SURFACE SUCH AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE ACCUMULATIONS. AFTER THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES EAST OVERNIGHT...SLIGHT DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MIZ047>049-053>055-061>063-069-070-100700-
/O.NEW.KDTX.ZR.Y.0001.121209T2340Z-121210T0700Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-GENESEE -LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...FLINT...LAPEER...PORT HURON...
PONTIAC...WARREN
640 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2012

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST
MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

* SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND
PATCHY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

IMPACTS...

* FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

* UNTREATED SURFACES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS AS
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED
FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

* PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
912. Skyepony (Mod)
Claudia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Astrometeor:
I have one question for the blog, why the abnormality up in the corner of Montana and North Dakota and Canada?



Maybe the software burped somehow ... it doesn't seem to have anything to do with reality. It is said to be 4 degrees F In Glasgow MT at the moment, 22 in Billings.
Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 437
Quoting Astrometeor:


just watched my team lose....again. Wish the blog would pick up again. What is everyone doing?

I was gone at a funeral home for visitation. Other than that I have been here, doing TCR work, or helping my family clean/decorate the house.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting washingtonian115:
Right behind you.Just finished watching a good game with my team winning.We weren't doing any such a thing.Its kind of racs.... Never mind


Titch!~ Touchy, touchy!

"MY team" ... sigh. It is a little saddening that people engage in ego-investment with mass-marketed products, but oh well. I'm human too. I guess if I had one of those $5,000 weather station packages, why, I'd grease my hair and strut down main-street like it mattered. So we're all the same in the end, eh?

Which is "Your" team...? And why do you identify with it? Hot uniforms? Cute guys? PLEASE don't tell me that it's geographic...! The players are bought and sold just like any other commodity.
Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 437
Well I am back. It is going to be a snowy game for the Lions as they take on the Packers. A winter weather advisory is in effect for 3-5" in the Green Bay area.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting AGWcreationists:
Hey, I got an hour off last night for getting after the resident weather modification conspiracy theorist for implying that his critics work for weather modification companies. Apparently impugning motives doesn't qualify as a personal attack but calling out how lame that tactic is does.

But being a moderator is often a thankless task, I am a mod on a large discussion forum and you never can make everyone happy. You can never get completely unbiased, fair moderation, everyone has their own viewpoints that color how they view possible transgressions.


I agree, modding is a pesky task, more for the moderator than the moderated! But it is essential for any well run blog-yak or bulletin board ... they degenerate into unusable chaos with out it. It's sort of like being a judge, policeman and janitor all at once.... and doing your job generally piXXes people off. Not a lot of glamor attaching to it either. So hug a moderator today! {M}

Um... someone asked.... I think it was Baha...? ...to define 'low forehead'. It's a result of there not being a whole massive pile of neo-cortex in the place where the higher forehead isn't. That Doesn't mean that the person is bad, immoral, or less to be valued intrinsically as a being of god's. But it does not bode well if the fellow is your doctor, lawyer, or accountant.
Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 437
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Category 4 with maximum sustained winds of 135 mph from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. But the JTWC isn't official for the SW Indian Ocean.
thanks I was a little confuse.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CST SUN DEC 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...+-S-CNTRL/ERN/SERN TX...FAR NWRN LA...FAR SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 092304Z - 100100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PRE-FRONTAL TSTM ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SEVERE TSTMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES HIGHER WATCH PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.

DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN/SERN TX HAS
INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE INITIATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE/JET STREAK MOVING
THROUGH THE STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT. RECENT MESOANALYSIS REVEALS
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER SE TX...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
MODEST MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/JET STREAK. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM HOT SPRINGS /HOT/ SWWD TO JUNCTION /JCT/.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKER THAN AREAS FARTHER N...EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NEAR 50 KT. THIS SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT
LEAST SOME BRIEF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITH ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SINCE THE FRONT
HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO QUICKLY UNDERCUT ANY SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY
ALONG IT.

..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 12/09/2012
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613
904. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting allancalderini:
Did Claudia peak at cat 3 or 4 in our scale?


estimated 130 MPH (110 knots) if JTWC used the 95 knots from Madagascar warnings
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
I have one question for the blog, why the abnormality up in the corner of Montana and North Dakota and Canada?

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Quoting Astrometeor:


just watched my team lose....again. Wish the blog would pick up again. What is everyone doing?
This is out 4th win in a row.Now we make it into the play offs.The red skins haven't been to the Super Bowl in almost 30 years since the 80's
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Category 3 with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph.

Category 4 with maximum sustained winds of 135 mph from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. But the JTWC isn't official for the SW Indian Ocean.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
From the Little Rock NWS page:



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899. KimD
We are finally getting "it's beginning to look like Christmas" snow here in Santa Fe, NM. Until yesterday the highs have been in the 50's and 60's, the lows in the high 20s and low-mid 30s. A cold front moved in this morning and we've had about 3" of snow in the past 2 hours. The low tonight will be about 8 degrees, after record warmth all I can say is brrr.

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Quoting allancalderini:
Did Claudia peak at cat 3 or 4 in our scale?

Category 3 with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
Did Claudia peak at cat 3 or 4 in our scale?
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Quoting MercForHire:
Wonder if the U.S. Midwest likes this warm 2012?


Should've asked when it was still warm. That nasty drought they had was pretty bad, however. Now, though, it is cold.
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One reported tornado touchdown so far today, also a confirmed injury and some substantial damage to a group of mobile homes with one of the few damaging wind reports:



(This map will update)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613
Quoting washingtonian115:
Right behind you.Just finished watching a good game with my team winning.We weren't doing any such a thing.Its kind of racs.... Never mind


just watched my team lose....again. Wish the blog would pick up again. What is everyone doing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wonder if the U.S. Midwest likes this warm 2012?
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Been reading back through the old pages, seems I always miss the exciting times of everything. Sigh.

All well, right now the radar says no rain in sight for a while. Fine by me, some quiet times ahead for several hours.
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Just to add a little insult to injury for the southern Philippines, they've just been hit by a moderate magnitude 5.6 earthquake. It'll likely be felt by many but a 5.6 isn't usually enough to do any significant damage. Some poorly built structures that were badly damaged during Bopha may come down though:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613
Slow day on the blog... I see we're eating our own tail again today.

Dreary, rainy day today here in St. Louie. Great day to do nothing productive. I'll be spending the rest of my day playing The Sims. :)
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Quoting Jedkins01:



This is probably the most ignorant thing I've read in a while.

I watch football, I Played football in high school, and I still play it for fun.

Since I just watched a game, I guess that means I'm beginning to foam at the mouth, BRB while I build a fire in my cave and then go sink my teeth into some raw flesh of a recent kill...
Right behind you.Just finished watching a good game with my team winning.We weren't doing any such a thing.Its kind of racs.... Never mind
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Actually, not. Like professional hockey, Professional football is a product designed for the low-brow breeding classes.



This is probably the most ignorant thing I've read in a while.

I watch football, I Played football in high school, and I still play it for fun.

Since I just watched a game, I guess that means I'm beginning to foam at the mouth, BRB while I build a fire in my cave and then go sink my teeth into some raw flesh of a recent kill...
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

Unfortunately it has been true for a number of years that the medium-range forecasts (like the ones seen on the CPC site) have little skill. They've tried adding climate model ensembles into the mix, but skill has not improved much. The models and the science can do a reasonable job over long time periods and can even give an idea of the climate variability, but when it comes to narrowing that down to specific regions and specific months/seasons, it starts getting iffy.



That's not surprising though, it's similar to long term weather forecasts have improved dramatically beyond 3 days with forecasting weather trends and pattern shifts. However, accurately forecasting weather systems and their impacts remains poor for the same period.

With that said, there is enough evidence to say that climate change has and could continue to cause weather extremes around the world, but predicting what kind of extremes and changes for given regions remains poor, not surprisingly.
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If Isaac is still on, I want an update please on Michigan and snow. I want snow, not this rain I have been having the last 24 hours. :(



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Quoting barbamz:
How Cold Will a Winter Be in Two Years? Climate Models Still Struggle With Medium-Term Climate Forecasts

Dec. 6, 2012 — How well are the most important climate models able to predict the weather conditions for the coming year or even the next decade? Potsdam scientists Dr. Dörthe Handorf and Prof. Dr. Klaus Dethloff from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association (AWI) have evaluated 23 climate models and published their results in the current issue of the international scientific journal Tellus A. Their conclusion: there is still a long way to go before reliable regional predictions can be made on seasonal to decadal time scales. None of the models evaluated is able today to forecast the weather-determining patterns of high and low pressure areas such that the probability of a cold winter or a dry summer can be reliably predicted.

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Have a nice Sunday, everybody!



However, if you were to evaluate a large number of posters in this blog, you'd find that you'd be called a "denier" and "anti-science" for questioning the accuracy of climate models, even if you do support that added CO2 can or has caused climate change.
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Just thought I post some Intellicast pictures of the exciting weather some have been seeing.





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883. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
6:00 AM FST December 10 2012
===============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (1001 hPa) located at 17.0S 156.0W. Position fair based on GOES visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

System lies in a high sheared environment and downstream of an upper level trough. Low level circulation center partially exposed with convection displaced to the south.

Global models have picked up the system and move it southwestward with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is LOW.

System #2
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At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 04F (1005 hPa) located at 12.0S 179.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization is poor. Convection has slightly increased in the past 24 hours. System lies under an upper level ridge in a low sheared environment. The cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it eastward with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 -48 is LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Ya, one or more of the people that police this operation have a trigger finger. Don't take it personally.
Hey, I got an hour off last night for getting after the resident weather modification conspiracy theorist for implying that his critics work for weather modification companies. Apparently impugning motives doesn't qualify as a personal attack but calling out how lame that tactic is does.

But being a moderator is often a thankless task, I am a mod on a large discussion forum and you never can make everyone happy. You can never get completely unbiased, fair moderation, everyone has their own viewpoints that color how they view possible transgressions.
Member Since: November 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.