Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history
The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.
November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.
Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Most extreme January - November period on record
The year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.
Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I for one am very excited considering how terribly dry it has been lately. I was beginning to fear a terrible fire season is coming because we had 40 inches+ across much of Central Florida over the rainy season months and now it has pretty much stopped raining and all the tropical foliage growth has dried out making for great fuel for wild fires. Hopefully we'll get some really solid rainfall the next few days.
I think the NWS has a better grip on this pattern then the other forecasts, the NWS has 60 to 70% each day, the other forecasts are saying 40 to 50%. Given very high moisture moving into place, plenty of lift and instability becoming available, I think 60 to 70% is a more accurate depiction than 40 to 50%.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
VISIBILITY: LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS. AS A RESULT...REDUCED
VISIBILITIES COULD IMPACT EARLY MORNING COMMUTES AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL THEN REDEVELOP LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BECOME STRONG
THIS EVENING AS FURTHER COOLING OF THE MID LEVELS IS FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY.
Yes very high moisture levels are moving towards us, once this moisture combines with that approaching front we will see areas of very heavy rain and thunderstorms around the area. Expect summer like rainfall bursts.
Breckinridge Colorado. I hit the slopes 1 week each year. Usually!
SE TX will be in it if not tonight tomm night for sure
Left to right: 0-6km Shear / 0-1km Storm Relative Helicity / Mixed Layer CAPE
click for full image(s)
Not close yet. AKT SpaceWeather's report of the Goldstone Radar results:
"Measuring 5 km in length, Toutatis is one of the largest known potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) and its orbit is inclined less than half-a-degree from Earth's. No other kilometer-sized PHA moves around the Sun in an orbit so nearly coplanar with our own. This makes it an important target for asteroid studies.
Fortunately, there is no danger of a collision with Toutatis for hundreds of years. Radar observations should improve researchers' ability to predict the asteroid's trajectory even farther into the future. Goldstone will pinging Toutatis from now until Dec. 22nd. Stay tuned for daily updates."
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE ENCOUNTERED THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.
ONLY PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
MID MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TODAY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL. WE THEREFORE BELIEVE
THAT IF ANY STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
LAC117-MSC109-101545-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0086.121210T1519Z-121210T1545Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
919 AM CST MON DEC 10 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BOGALUSA...
NORTHERN PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF POPLARVILLE...
* UNTIL 945 AM CST
* AT 916 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BOGALUSA...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
VARNADO AND CROSSROADS
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CST MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA.
&&
LAT...LON 3079 8941 3073 8988 3084 8999 3101 8964
3101 8962
TIME...MOT...LOC 1519Z 258DEG 27KT 3079 8986
$$
alright
2133 11 SW POCAHONTAS RANDOLPH AR 3615 9111 HOUSE COMPLETELY SHIFTED OFF FOUNDATION. SECOND STORY OF HOME REMOVED ALONG WITH ROOF. NEIGHBORS BARN IN RESIDENTS YARD. (MEG)
Says we got 3/10 of an inch so far.
Rain gauge says 3/4 of an inch.
2012 DA14 is the one to watch on the 15th of February...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
837 AM CST MON DEC 10 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0656 AM TSTM WND DMG BAKER 30.59N 91.16W
12/10/2012 EAST BATON ROUGE LA 911 CALL CENTER
BAKER POLICE DEPARTMENT IS REPORTED WIDESPREAD DAMAGE TO
TREES AND POWER LINES ACROSS THE CITY. WILL UPDATE LATER
WITH ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AS IT IS RECEIVED.
0657 AM TSTM WND DMG BAKER 30.59N 91.16W
12/10/2012 EAST BATON ROUGE LA NEWSPAPER
MEDIA REPORTED A CAR WASH DESTROYED ALONG STATE HIGHWAY
19 IN BAKER.
0724 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 S BRUSLY 30.38N 91.25W
12/10/2012 WEST BATON ROUGE LA PUBLIC
TREES DOWN ALONG CELL LANE AND STATE HIGHWAY 1.
0736 AM TSTM WND DMG GREENWELL SPRINGS 30.58N 90.99W
12/10/2012 EAST BATON ROUGE LA PUBLIC
NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALONG CANE MARKET ROAD IN GREENWELL
SPRINGS.
0757 AM TORNADO 6 S TYLERTOWN 31.03N 90.14W
12/10/2012 WALTHALL MS EMERGENCY MNGR
WALTHALL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A POSSIBLE
TORNADO ALONG SIMON ROAD IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY NEAR THE MS/LA STATE LINE. DAMAGE TO A BARN AND TO
THE ROOF OF AN OFFICE BUILDING WERE REPORTED.
0806 AM TORNADO 6 SE TYLERTOWN 31.06N 90.07W
12/10/2012 WALTHALL MS EMERGENCY MNGR
WALTHALL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A POSSIBLE
TORNADO ALONG AIRLINE HIGHWAY JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 48.
0811 AM TORNADO DEXTER 31.07N 89.99W
12/10/2012 WALTHALL MS EMERGENCY MNGR
WALTHALL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE TO A HOME IN DEXTER.
Typically we see an average high of 42 degree F on Dec. 1st, transitioning down to 33 degrees on Dec 31st. To Date for the month this is what I have with climatology averages in parentheses. Our average lows are even exceeding our average highs climatology for this month to date.
Dec 01 - 62 (42) 20 anomaly
Dec 02 - 67 (42) 25 anomaly
Dec 03 - 70 (41) 29 anomaly
Dec 04 - 61 (41) 20 anomaly
Dec 05 - 46 (40) 06 anomaly
Dec 06 - 51 (40) 11 anomaly
Dec 07 - 49 (39) 10 anomaly
Dec 08 - 47 (39) 08 anomaly
Dec 09 - 51 (39) 12 anomaly
It has not rained much here in the last two months as well. Only 0.99'' in November and barely a half inch 9 days into December in what are supposed to be wet months for us. ~ 3.5" for December on average and ~ 3" for November.
Global Warming Gives Ski Industry Chills
quoting:
"Winter as we know it is on borrowed time," Elizabeth Burakowski, a co-author of the POW/NRDC report, told The New York Times. The 2011/2012 winter season was the fourth-warmest on record since 1896 and had the third-lowest snow cover since record-keeping began in 1966.
"Winter temperatures are projected to warm an additional 4 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century, with subsequent decreases in snow cover area, snowfall, and shorter snow season. Snow depths could decline in the west by 25 to 100 percent. The length of the snow season in the northeast will be cut in half. All of this translates into less snow and fewer people on the slopes," the authors write in the report.
Excellent Doug/ I'll be there is 3 weeks/will send you a report from Imperial Bowl
SP
Highest lift in North America!
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