Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on December 07, 2012

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The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.

November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Most extreme January - November period on record
The year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.

Jeff Masters

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Iinteractive Blitz Map

The map shows every bomb dropped on London during "the Blitz" in WWII
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Quoting biff4ugo:
RTS, the state temperatures are not independent or random. They are spatially correlated.

If one state is having record temperatures, the odds of adjacent states having record temperatures is not some random number, it is greatly increased. A state next to a record warm state is NOT going to have a record cold temperature, as could happen with a random sample of numbers.

-spatial ed.



I realize that.

Maybe I should have made that clear.
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Thanks RTS
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Arctic Wildfire Soot Darkening Greenland Ice Sheet

"Now, adding to the darkening of the surface that comes with more meltwater is the soot from Arctic tundra wildfires, another phenomenon that seems to be increasing with global warming. As these wildfires rage, atmospheric currents carry their smoke plumes over other areas, including Greenland, as the CALIPSO images show. The soot drops out from these plumes and darkens the ice sheet, exacerbating the feedback cycle of melting."
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
After a brief warmup, it appears the Nino regions of the East Pacific are forecasted to continue to cool

So basically El nino hides out this winter, comes back to ruin severe weather season, and leaves by summer....
grrrrrr:



They were WRONG about last winter being colder than average. They were then WRONG about this hurricane season being below average.

They could be wrong about this one as well.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
After a brief warmup, it appears the Nino regions of the East Pacific are forecasted to continue to cool

So basically El nino hides out this winter, comes back to ruin severe weather season, and leaves by summer....
grrrrrr:

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Quoting biff4ugo:
Hurricanes really need a 3 point rating system, like fertilizer.

Cat/max wind - Size - Speed/Rain

Bopha
5-1-4
Sandy
1-6-2

something like that.
Since microcanes don't do as much damage overall even with high max wind speeds (unless you are a small island)

Fast hurricanes also do much less damage than the ones that park and hammer the shorelines/dump rain for days on end.

I think storm surge is a product of the three numbers.

If there was a 4th number, it would be for preparedness.
0 = fish storm, 1 = hitting places that are used to it and less developed, 2 = places that have a regular history/more developed, 3 = highly developed/with some history, 4 = unprepared/ very rare, 5 = unprecedented.


Just do IKE values, or for simplicity, do nested circles for rings according to this formula:

(1/S)*(R^2)*(V^2)

Where:
V is in units of 1 = 25knts.
R is in units of 1 = 25nautical miles radius.
S is in units of 1 = 10 kts forward speed.

You could further break it down by quadrant and do the rings in each quadrant individually, so you get a better number for lop-sided storms.

This approximates IKE, but doesn't require "fancy" math.


A computer can do this for an entire storm in less than a second. If I had access to the data set used to make this map, I could write the code in a few minutes, and you can get a GOOD approximation of these nested rings just using the data printed at the bottom left on the map, subtracting out the area of the inner rings or quadrants of rings, of course.




So easy a caveman can do it.
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There was a tornado in Uruguay and supercells in Argentina yesterday?

Video of a tornado in Dolores
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RTS, the state temperatures are not independent or random. They are spatially correlated.

If one state is having record temperatures, the odds of adjacent states having record temperatures is not some random number, it is greatly increased. A state next to a record warm state is NOT going to have a record cold temperature, as could happen with a random sample of numbers.

-spatial ed.
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Quoting yonzabam:
That 2012 line is plain scary. We were warned that climate change would not be a gradual process everywhere, but would often 'lurch' into new regional climatic regimes.

The recently elucidated 'Arctic dipole' may be an example of this, and it seems to be making the jet stream more erratic. The jet stream has a huge influence on regional weather.

Too soon to make any connection between the jet stream and record US temperatures and drought, but if they are connected, I can only see things getting worse.


Jennifer Francis, Professor, Institute of Marine and Coastal Studies, Rutgers University, presents a very good argument they are connected and we are witnessing it already.

The Short Version

The Long Version
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 99
Quoting pottery:

I was not reading your mind, you know.
I was reading your comments.

Saw that on the last blog. LOL'd have to say.
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Ok I'm really not sure what to make of this:

First severe wx chance:


IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT FORCING AND STRONG GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT
THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
.
_________________________________________________ _

So then we move to 192 hrs and a potentially significant negatively tilted trough:


INTERACTION BETWEEN A BELT
OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...AND ANOTHER
EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL LEAD TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE U.S. LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
_________________________________________________

Right behind this system we have another system, barely 2-3 days later, note the first trough still off the northeasteast coast:



This threatens to drop snow as far south as N GA but I cant tell if there is an appreciable severe wx threat, but it would stay in S GA/N FL anyway

_________________________________________________ ___

And then the whole thing turns into a great long lasting Nor'easter with LOTS of snow for the NE and Mid atlantic:



_________________________________________________ __

And before that is even finally done with the NE, a new system comes with storms for the SE and snow AGAIN for the Midatlantic and NE:



_________________________________________________ _

Amplified pattern much?
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Quoting hydrus:
A long way out, but could be a Mid-South howler or two coming our way..They can be potent and do damage from just straight line winds and no thunderstorms.
And, looks like the Northeast could get hammered.... not what people who are still dealing with 'Sandy' need.
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18 states had their warmest year on record
10 had their second warmest
6 had their third warmest
3 had their 4th warmest
1 had 5th warmest

38 states had top 5 warmest years.

Rank StateNum State% Log(1+(1/N))

1 18 0.375 0.301
2 10 0.208 0.176
3 06 0.125 0.1249
4 03 0.0625 0.0969
5 01 outlier

It's not perfect, but it's following the "Law of large numbers," which means that since this is maximum records, the opposite of a normal statistical Bell curve, you'd expect the number of first place records for individual states to be lower if it was obeying a normal Bell curve. So seeing the reverse of a "statistical" hottest year ever, with more individual members each having their first, second, or third hottest year ever than not, then this represents an incredible amount of forcing on a continental scale.


Probability of any one state randomly having a record year:

0.407

Probability of any of 18 states randomly having record years during the same year somewhere in a 118 year data set.

5.27 in ten thousand.
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Hurricanes really need a 3 point rating system, like fertilizer.

Cat/max wind - Size - Speed/Rain

Bopha
5-1-4
Sandy
1-6-2

something like that.
Since microcanes don't do as much damage overall even with high max wind speeds (unless you are a small island)

Fast hurricanes also do much less damage than the ones that park and hammer the shorelines/dump rain for days on end.

I think storm surge is a product of the three numbers.

If there was a 4th number, it would be for preparedness.
0 = fish storm, 1 = hitting places that are used to it and less developed, 2 = places that have a regular history/more developed, 3 = highly developed/with some history, 4 = unprepared/ very rare, 5 = unprecedented.
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A long way out, but could be a Mid-South howler or two coming our way..They can be potent and do damage from just straight line winds and no thunderstorms.
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Well this is what I noticed..Usually when one month is much below avergae(like this past November) the following month is average to above average?.

Also I started picking up on something awhile ago.I noticed that big blockbuster storms occur 40+ days apart with each other and had a second but a much smaller storm on scale follow right behind.

For a example back in 2009 in December we had a big blizzard around the 17 or 18 a week later a smaller storm followed and dumped rain about a week after.Then! 40+ days later(in February) another big storm happened that was followed by a smaller storm on scale.Like how Sandy this year was a big storm only to be followed by a week later with another storm.So if my calculations are correct I expect another big storm within a week or two...Before December is out.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Looking at the graph Dr. Masters put up regarding climate extremes, it looks like the first half of this century, extremes were actually on the slow decrease up to 1970, and then began to increase after up to present.



from Biff:
Remember that question about humans being responsible for more than 100% of the warming? That was because without our contributions the trend would continue to be cooler. Right?

Quoting Jedkins01:
BR>Then, I also ask this question, lets say hypothetically, that all current climate change was entirely natural, and that scientists found proof that it will continue to do so, and there isn't much we could do to change that. How then, would humanity respond, or how should we respond? Would we find ways to live in such extremes, as cultures have in parts of the world who have already lived with and learned to adapt with extremes throughout their genetic history


from Biff:
Adapt or die. If we can't change it, then we put all our effort into adaptation and anticipation...like weather forecasting improvements. Yippee! Both sides can agree on that.
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Bopha is probably in an eye-wall replacement cycle again.

It had a mini-peak about 6 hours ago with very warm core temperatures and a small eye again, but now its getting some cover over the eye again.

2012DEC07 113000 6.0 929.7/ +2.7 /115.0 6.0 6.4 6.8 2.2T/6hr OFF OFF 11.40 -73.78 EYE 16 IR 15.42 -116.05 COMBO
2012DEC07 123000 6.0 929.6/ +2.6 /115.0 6.0 6.4 6.6 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF 4.49 -72.86 EYE 16 IR 15.50 -116.16 COMBO
2012DEC07 125700 6.1 927.0/ +2.6 /117.4 6.1 6.4 6.6 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF 5.59 -73.47 EYE 16 IR 15.64 -116.17 COMBO
2012DEC07 133000 6.2 924.4/ +2.6 /119.8 6.2 6.4 6.5 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF -12.05 -74.96 EYE -99 IR 15.71 -116.19 COMBO
2012DEC07 135700 6.3 921.8/ +2.6 /122.2 6.3 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -33.63 -75.54 EYE -99 IR 15.66 -116.20 SPRL
2012DEC07 143000 6.3 921.8/ +2.5 /122.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -30.16 -75.54 EYE/P -99 IR 15.81 -116.32 SPRL
2012DEC07 145700 6.3 921.7/ +2.5 /122.2 6.3 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -33.65 -75.35 EYE/P -99 IR 15.86 -116.34 SPRL
2012DEC07 153000 6.3 921.7/ +2.5 /122.2 6.1 5.2 5.2 0.7T/6hr ON OFF -60.44 -74.91 EMBC N/A 15.91 -116.36 SPRL
2012DEC07 155700 6.3 921.7/ +2.5 /122.2 5.9 5.2 5.2 0.7T/6hr ON OFF -63.66 -75.63 EMBC N/A 15.96 -116.37 SPRL
2012DEC07 163000 6.3 921.7/ +2.5 /122.2 5.8 5.2 4.7 0.7T/6hr ON FLG -74.91 -74.47 UNIFRM N/A 16.01 -116.81 SPRL
2012DEC07 165700 6.3 921.6/ +2.4 /122.2 5.6 5.0 4.6 1.2T/12hr ON FLG -72.83 -72.85 UNIFRM N/A 16.35 -116.72 SPRL


Last time it was calculated, the radius of maximum winds was still 16NM.
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Quoting goosegirl1:
Not to change the subject (we can always get back to that :)) but this concerns me. Link

Most of us do not realize how lucky we were to be born in a developed nation with a strong infrastructure and government help when needed. We would rather take shots at the opposite political party than realize that we are all floating in the same boat- there is no America, British, African, First Nation... there is only human.
The song "Human" by the human league comes to mind...of course they were talking about a much more adult subject than this blog would allow....


My local news paper has a artical titled "Can lightning help predict tornados?" By capital weather gang on the washington post website.

google it because I'm to lazy to give the link.
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Quoting nymore:
Sorry I am not in Canada


hint- Read 61. There's no Canadian either :)
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Not to change the subject (we can always get back to that :)) but this concerns me. Link

Most of us do not realize how lucky we were to be born in a developed nation with a strong infrastructure and government help when needed. We would rather take shots at the opposite political party than realize that we are all floating in the same boat- there is no America, British, African, First Nation... there is only human.
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Quoting LargoFl:
maybe we are a virus?


Some say life is a virus. :)

Inanimate objects only follow cause and effect... while we selfishly change our surroundings to adapt our needs. Maybe, a truly wise civilization will have mastered adaptation to its natural environment instead of trying to make space for themselves?
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Quoting goosegirl1:


And by leaving out First Nation people you just lived up to your own insult.
Sorry I am not in Canada
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I guess it IS true..CO2 does warm the atmosphere and we release alot of it, so in effect we are helping to warm the planet..which melts the ice and the seas rise..and humans alive when it happens will have to deal with it...its sad but true....then again..humans alive 20,000 years ago..had to deal with the ice age and humans are still here...and getting ready to pollute other planets.....maybe we are a virus?..in the grand scheme of things..universe wise?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39147
Quoting nymore:
It is Native American for all you Crackers


And by leaving out First Nation people you just lived up to your own insult.
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Quoting hydrus:
Possible Nor,Easter being charted by the GFS..
..well hopefully that middle graph is showing rain coming our way
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39147
Quoting Jedkins01:
Looking at the graph Dr. Masters put up regarding climate extremes, it looks like the first half of this century, extremes were actually on the slow decrease up to 1970, and then began to increase after up to present.

With that said I wonder, is this because there is some expected delay between climate change from CO2 and expected resulting extremes? Or is there some other reason for this such as natural shift in weather patterns? Or a combination of both? I'd like to hear some responses on this...

Then, I also ask this question, lets say hypothetically, that all current climate change was entirely natural, and that scientists found proof that it will continue to do so, and there isn't much we could do to change that. How then, would humanity respond, or how should we respond? Would we find ways to live in such extremes, as cultures have in parts of the world who have already lived with and learned to adapt with extremes throughout their genetic history


This is always a problem where cause and effect can be delayed by sometimes, years. It gives skeptics lots of "cherry picked" data points to attempt to discredit the we "are" getting warmer crowd.

For me, there are two separate issues. Global warming, and anthropogenic global warming. IMO, the first is overwhelmingly supported, it is the second one that seems to start the wars. For me, I just can't ignore the millions of tons of CO2 WE are adding to our Blue Marble. I just don't understand how some can seemingly ignore, or blow off as having no impact when the science is pretty straight forward. It may turn out that this is a "natural" cycle, but to think that we are not exacerbating the problem seems rather sort sighted. JMHO
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Polluted cirrus clouds SE of Typhoon Bopha that will alter the course of that storm, causing it to move SE.

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Roughly 20,000 years ago the great ice sheets that buried much of Asia, Europe and North America stopped their creeping advance. Within a few hundred years sea levels in some places had risen by as much as 10 meters—more than if the ice sheet that still covers Greenland were to melt today. This freshwater flood filled the North Atlantic and also shut down the ocean currents that conveyed warmer water from equatorial regions northward. The equatorial heat warmed the precincts of Antarctica in the Southern Hemisphere instead, shrinking the fringing sea ice and changing the circumpolar winds. As a result—and for reasons that remain unexplained—the waters of the Southern Ocean may have begun to release carbon dioxide, enough to raise concentrations in the atmosphere by more than 100 parts per million over millennia—roughly equivalent to the rise in the last 200 years. That CO2 then warmed the globe, melting back the continental ice sheets and ushering in the current climate that enabled humanity to thrive.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39147
Quoting OviedoWatcher:
Indian Summer as in a long hot one like they have in India. Why is that racist? The expression is a British one comparing cold, damp miserable British Septembers and Octobers with warm sunny ones in India.

Well I guess not exactly true

The expression 'Indian summer' has been used for more than two centuries. The earliest known use was by French-American writer John Hector St. John de Crevecoeur in rural New York in 1778: "Then a severe frost succeeds which prepares it to receive the voluminous coat of snow which is soon to follow; though it is often preceded by a short interval of smoke and mildness, called the Indian Summer."

As for the british

In British English St. Martin's Summer was the most widely used term until the American phrase became better known in the 20th century. In the United Kingdom, the term Indian summer is used loosely for a period of unseasonable warmth and sunshine in late September, October, or November. In former times in English-speaking regions of Europe, 'Indian summer' was called Saint Martin's Summer, referring to St. Martin's day, November 11. An alternative was Saint Luke's summer. Another alternative was "All-hallown summer", as All Hallows' is November 1. In the United Kingdom Indian summer is often used to describe warm weather that comes late in the year after unusually cool summer months
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Possible Nor,Easter being charted by the GFS..
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Quoting pottery:

Thanks, this had got mundane already.

It's becoming difficult to excite people with GW anymore.
Maybe the threat of drowning will have the desired effect.

One can only hope (I nearly wrote hype instead of hope! )


LOL Pot..
There's an old sayin'
"If the Captain is deaf then you row your own boat"
And by "Captain" I don't mean our current president..
Just our society in general..
JMO of course.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6840
Quoting Jedkins01:
Looking at the graph Dr. Masters put up regarding climate extremes, it looks like the first half of this century, extremes were actually on the slow decrease up to 1970, and then began to increase after up to present.

With that said I wonder, is this because there is some expected delay between climate change from CO2 and expected resulting extremes? Or is there some other reason for this such as natural shift in weather patterns? Or a combination of both? I'd like to hear some responses on this...

Then, I also ask this question, lets say hypothetically, that all current climate change was entirely natural, and that scientists found proof that it will continue to do so, and there isn't much we could do to change that. How then, would humanity respond, or how should we respond? Would we find ways to live in such extremes, as cultures have in parts of the world who have already lived with and learned to adapt with extremes throughout their genetic history
..GREAT QUESTION and I have been saying this all along, the earth does this normally..going from warm to cold all thru its long history, we humans alive today are just seeing it change back to its warm period...do we..humans help it along?..maybe with our pollution etc..but the warming itself..is normal if you study the earths past history
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39147
Looking at the graph Dr. Masters put up regarding climate extremes, it looks like the first half of this century, extremes were actually on the slow decrease up to 1970, and then began to increase after up to present.

With that said I wonder, is this because there is some expected delay between climate change from CO2 and expected resulting extremes? Or is there some other reason for this such as natural shift in weather patterns? Or a combination of both? I'd like to hear some responses on this...

Then, I also ask this question, lets say hypothetically, that all current climate change was entirely natural, and that scientists found proof that it will continue to do so, and there isn't much we could do to change that. How then, would humanity respond, or how should we respond? Would we find ways to live in such extremes, as cultures have in parts of the world who have already lived with and learned to adapt with extremes throughout their genetic history
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Indian Summer as in a long hot one like they have in India. Why is that racist? The expression is a British one comparing cold, damp miserable British Septembers and Octobers with warm sunny ones in India.

Quoting nymore:
Perhaps you could all not be so racist and more pc in your use of Indian Summer.
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Quoting pcola57:
*I am re-posting this link in order to help understand and also bring forward the discussion on sea level rise..
Hope no one is offended.. :)

Flood/sea level rise map..Google format..find your city..zoom in..adjust sea levels..and watch the change..a reality check..

Thanks, this had got mundane already.

It's becoming difficult to excite people with GW anymore.
Maybe the threat of drowning will have the desired effect.

One can only hope (I nearly wrote hype instead of hope! )
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Typhoon Bopha. MODIS AQUA satellite photo. A few hours ago.

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There is no official Category 6 for hurricanes, but scientists say they're pondering whether there should be as evidence mounts that hurricanes around the world have sharply worsened over the past 30 years -- and all but a handful of hurricane experts now agree this worsening bears the fingerprints of man-made global warming.



In fact, say scientists, there have already been hurricanes strong enough to qualify as Category 6s. They'd define those as having sustained winds over 175 or 180 mph. A couple told me they'd measured close to 200 mph on a few occasions.



The Saffir-Simpson hurricane category scale is based on wind speed: A Category 1 hurricane has sustained winds from 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 has sustained winds from 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 has sustained winds from 111 to 130 mph, Category 4 has sustained winds from 131 to 155, and a Category 5 storm has sustained winds greater than 155 mph.



The categories run in roughly 20 mph increments, so a Cat 6 would be greater than 175 or 180 mph.



To put this all in perspective, Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane out over some hot spots in the Gulf. But when it hit New Orleans, scientists now know, Katrina had winds at a low Category 3, and much of them Category 2, including the "left side winds" that then came down from the north and pushed the surge-swollen waters of Lake Pontchartrain over and through NOLA's levees. (Hurricanes spin counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere, so when Katrina came ashore just east of New Orleans, its winds hit the city from the north.)



Only three Category 5s have come ashore in the United States in the past century -- the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Camille in 1969 and Andrew in 1992.



But because of man-made global warming, most hurricane scientists say now we will probably be getting Category 4 and 5 hurricanes more frequently in the coming decades.



That's on top of the natural multi-year cycles of hurricane intensity the scientists already know about.



In fact, says atmosphere scientific Greg Holland, the world already has seen far more frequent Cat 4s and 5s. He points to several studies published over the past 12 months which "indicated the frequency of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes had almost doubled around the world in the period since 1970."



The fact that these patterns (on top of the natural cycles) have been seen in not just one ocean but all tropical and subtropical waters around the world is what worries many hurricane experts -- and, they say, it is why they now calculate that they are due to man-made global warming, not regional natural weather patterns.



"We're actually looking at an entire world that is heating up," says Holland, "not just the Atlantic Ocean -- which is why we are absolutely convinced that there is a very large greenhouse warming signal in what we're seeing."



In the past, say these scientists, when one region of the globe concentrated more heated water or air (both of which can intensify hurricanes), other regions would cool in compensation because the total heat available on the planet at any one time is limited; now, with the average global temperatures going up, such related cooling is happening less and less.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39147
Granted I acccept that its warmest year in the US history but the Global story is a little different..State of global temperatures in 2012
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
Quoting yoboi:


i am with you...it's to the point you can't say anything anymore

Doesn't seem to have stopped anyone on this blog.
Thank Goodness for that, eh ?
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*I am re-posting this link in order to help understand and also bring forward the discussion on sea level rise..
Hope no one is offended.. :)

Flood/sea level rise map..Google format..find your city..zoom in..adjust sea levels..and watch the change..a reality check..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6840

Quoting LargoFl:
Navy model for it............
Looks like a very mean-minded little Mayan running around in that eyewall making his own calendar
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First outlook of 2013 Atlantic hurricane season by CSU. No numbers here but they made a summary of the factors that may be important to cause the season to be active or not. (Mainly ENSO)

Link
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ANYONE REMEMBER THIS?....With wind speeds measured at 190 mph, Camille holds the record for the strongest winds of any storm upon landfall in the U.S. Strong storms often weaken when they hit land because they lose their heat source and because friction slows winds down once they start hitting structures.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39147
Quoting nymore:
It is Native American for all you Crackers


Nah. It describes the weather in India.
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This is a satellite image SE of Typhoon Bopha. This looks like a rocket trail and weather modification. If it is, it may suck the typhoon into Manila.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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