Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on December 07, 2012

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The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.

November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Most extreme January - November period on record
The year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.

Jeff Masters

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1032. LargoFl
(tornado watch)..................WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 679
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
719 AM CST MON DEC 10 2012

LAC005-007-033-037-047-063-091-093-105-117-121-MS C005-113-147-
101700-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.A.0679.000000T0000Z-121210T1700Z/

TORNADO WATCH 679 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN LOUISIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 PARISHES

IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA

ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE
EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON
ST. HELENA ST. JAMES TANGIPAHOA
WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE

IN MISSISSIPPI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

AMITE PIKE WALTHALL

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ADDIS...BATON ROUGE...BOGALUSA...
BRUSLY...CLINTON...CROSBY...DENHAM SPRINGS...DONALDSONVILLE...
FRANKLINTON...GLOSTER...GONZALES...GRAMERCY...GRE ENSBURG...
HAMMOND...JACKSON...LABADIEVILLE...LIBERTY...LUTC HER...MCCOMB...
MONTPELIER...PAINCOURTVILLE...PIERRE PART...PLAQUEMINE...
PONCHATOULA...PORT ALLEN...TYLERTOWN...WALKER AND WHITE CASTLE.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39736
1031. pcola57
Quoting LargoFl:
wow some good rain there alright


Yeah later on I'll be glad I finished the X-Mas lights yesterday.. :)
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1030. Ighuc
I had to use a shovel just to get the foot of snow off the top of my car. I love love love Minnesota!
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1029. pcola57
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
To shamelessly paraphrase our friend from SOUTH Carolina, wind chill is of the Devil! :)



Overcast
45°F
7°C
Humidity87%
Wind SpeedNW 12 G 29 mph
Barometer29.96 in
Dewpoint41°F (5°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill39°F (4°C)

Last Update on 10 Dec 8:15 am CST


Yeah I was looking at the WU Wind Chill Map I posted in post #1015 and was thinking "They are feeling it this am"
Hope you got some kind of rain out of it..
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1028. LargoFl
Lots of Fog again today..drive carefully folks...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39736
1027. LargoFl
Quoting pcola57:
Webcam from my area..


My (miserably tacky and humid) weather this am

Fronts coming with some embedded T'storms..
wow some good rain there alright
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39736
1026. pcola57
Webcam from my area..


My (miserably tacky and humid) weather this am

Fronts coming with some embedded T'storms..
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To shamelessly paraphrase our friend from SOUTH Carolina, wind chill is of the Devil! :)



Overcast
45°F
7°C
Humidity87%
Wind SpeedNW 12 G 29 mph
Barometer29.96 in
Dewpoint41°F (5°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill39°F (4°C)

Last Update on 10 Dec 8:15 am CST
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Quoting txjac:
What a difference a few hours makes ...73 last night at 9 pm. It's now 43 degress here with wind gusts of 20 mph at 7 am.

I'm dreaming of a white Christmas ...lol

Morning everyone ...evening Aussie

Morning Mate!

Was there any death/damage from the tornado's yesterday.


There has been no 5pm update from the Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council on the effects of Pablo/Bopha. The 5am update had

647 People dead
1482 People injured
780 people missing

32,816 houses totally destroyed
38,053 houses partially damaged

Cost of Damage is :
Infrastructure = PHP 3,479,131,300 (US$84,918,994)
Agriculture = PHP 3,618,868,247 (US$88,329,708)
Damage to Private Property = PHP 18,388,493 (US$448,828)
Total = PHP 7,116,388,040 (US$173,697,530)

Goodnight all
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Asteroid crash this Wednesday????
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From Think Progress's ClimateSite.

"AGU Scientist Asks, 'Is Earth F**ked?' Surprising Answer: Resistance is NOT Futile!

By Joe Romm on Dec 9, 2012 at 2:29 pm

Yes, geophysicist Brad Werner actually titled his talk at the huge American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting last week, 'Is Earth F**ked?' The talk's abstract appeared to offer a pessimistic answer:

In sum, the dynamics of the global coupled human-environmental system within the dominant culture precludes management for stable, sustainable pathways and promotes instability.
....
if you're interested in averting the scenario in which the Earth is f**ked then, Werner's model implied, resistance is the best and probably only hope. Every other element - environmental regulation, even science - is too embedded in the dominant economic system."

See article here.

I would suggest that anyone who can reason beyond "the dominant culture" mentioned above research and read some of Daniel Quinn's work like "Ishmael" or "The Story of B" or for a short read "Beyond Civilization". It is our culture that is the problem and we need to come up with the tools necessary to modify the memes directing our lives. No small task but a necessary one if we are to avoid extinction in the near term.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 99
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
818 AM CST MON DEC 10 2012

MSC147-101430-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0084.000000T0000Z-121210T1430Z/
WALTHALL MS-
818 AM CST MON DEC 10 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CST FOR EAST
CENTRAL WALTHALL COUNTY...

AT 816 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DEXTER...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBIA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE
REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

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Jenny Rivera...a Mexican-Amercan singer died yesterday morning in a plane crash. RIP
My sympathies for her family
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1019. LargoFl
showers in the gulf moving towards florida,just might be getting some rain if this holds together........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39736
1018. LargoFl
Quoting txjac:
What a difference a few hours makes ...73 last night at 9 pm. It's now 43 degress here with wind gusts of 20 mph at 7 am.

I'm dreaming of a white Christmas ...lol

Morning everyone ...evening Aussie
GOOD MORNING,pretty strong cold front this time
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39736
Current conditions in Fort Myers

Temp 67° (19°C)
Humidity 93%
Wind Speed Calm
Barometer 29.98 in (1015.2 mb)
Dewpoint 65° (18°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi

Yesterday our high was 85° very humid and we had to turn the A/C back on. Today we have a 40% chance of scattered thunderstorms with a high of 84° and low of 69°. Saturday we received our first rainfall since November 6th. I received .56 inches at my house.
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1016. etxwx
Good morning everyone. Here in this part of Jasper County, we received two thirds of an inch of rain from that front. Never thought I'd get that excited about that amount of rain, but it's been that kind of fall. It's a brisk 47F out there now - going to have to protect the garden the next couple nights.
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1015. pcola57
Current WU Temp. Map..


Current WU Wind Chill Map..
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1014. pcola57
Jet Stream giving it a push..

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1013. pcola57
Good Morning All,

Front looks to be holding together this time..

1 KM Visible Satellite for Mississippi


1 KM Visible Satellite for Louisiana
You can see the high cirrus clouds this am on the back side of it in Texas..


1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida
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1012. VR46L
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Good news everyone.

I got 5" out of Ceasar here in centeral wisconsin.

Sure, it was not the 12" superblizzard I want (and desperatley need), but at least the snow pack has started to build and I will get a white Christmas.


Good for you . I think you will have more in the next few days .Its 23 months since I seen any .
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Good news everyone.

I got 5" out of Ceasar here in centeral wisconsin.

Sure, it was not the 12" superblizzard I want (and desperatley need), but at least the snow pack has started to build and I will get a white Christmas.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
1010. VR46L
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1009. DDR
Local radar showing numerous showers in training inLink
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1008. DDR
Good morning
Looks like very wet day again in Trinidad,some flooding and landslips likey.
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Potato!
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I'll be here at the end of January!
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1005. txjac
What a difference a few hours makes ...73 last night at 9 pm. It's now 43 degress here with wind gusts of 20 mph at 7 am.

I'm dreaming of a white Christmas ...lol

Morning everyone ...evening Aussie
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1004. icmoore
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
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Deep South snow at 174 hrs?
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1002. icmoore
Good morning. The NWS has increased the rain probs here (Tampa Bay area, me specifically Madeira Beach) to 60% over the next 3 days and we really could use it. With the front predicted to stall we could see an appreciable amount (1-2") for the first time in quite some time. Finger's crossed :)

FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
407 AM EST MON DEC 10 2012
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERTHE NEXT FEW DAYS. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS TODAY WILL SHARPEN SOME AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OFLOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT.
FOR TODAY WE WILL SEE AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE GET PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS.INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO -2 TO -4 WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500J/KG.THEREFORE...WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POP UP ALSO. BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE FOG. AREA OF SEA FOG FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING OFFSHORE
SOME WHILE SHIFTING NORTHWARD...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY AND THIS COULD KEEP IT NEAR THE COAST FROM AROUND PINELLAS COUNTY NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
FOG WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL AREAS FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY NORTH PROBABLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S WHILE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INLAND AREAS COULD CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.TONIGHT THE POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. WILL PROBABLY STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SEA FOG FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AND MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE MORE DEEP MOISTURE SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING
FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES FAR NORTH TO NEAR 1.9 INCHES CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
APPROACHES SO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

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Everyone have a great Monday, and Aussie, have a great Tuesday!
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1000. beell
NWS Current Conditions:
Houston Intercontinental Airport (KIAH)
Overcast
53°F 12°C
Humidity 80%
Wind Speed NW 16 G 26 mph
Barometer 29.91 in (1012.9 mb)
Dewpoint 47°F (8°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 48°F (9°C)

WTP Forecast:



Hum dum dum
Oh the wind is lashing lustily
And the trees are thrashing thrustily
And the leaves are rustling gustily
So it's rather safe to say
That it seems that it may turn out to be
It feels that it will undoubtedly
It looks like a rather blustery day, today...


Current TemperatureCurrent WindspeedCurrent Windchill
Current Temp, Wind, Windchill


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... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 630 am CST for Simpson
County...

At 544 am CST... National Weather Service meteorologists continue to
track a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This
tornado was located 3 miles west of Pinola moving northeast at 35
mph.

The tornado will be near...
Pinola by 550 am CST...
Mendenhall by 600 am CST...
Sanatorium by 605 am CST...
Martinville by 610 am CST...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Tornado Warning means that a tornado is occurring or imminent. You
should activate your tornado action plan and take protective action
now.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 am CST Monday morning
for southern Mississippi.


Lat... Lon 3191 9007 3204 8986 3204 8972 3204 8966
3202 8966 3192 8966 3186 8987 3183 9004
time... Mot... loc 1144z 240deg 32kt 3188 9002

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Quoting wxmod:
Another day of grand scale manipulation of our precious atmosphere. Some day you will not be able to breath it. You will not be a survivor no matter how well you prepare. MODIS SATELLITE PHOTO Pacific ocean today.

But you're not a conspiracy theorist. Yeah, right.
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Quoting indianrivguy:
Well, I hope everyone has a nice morning-evening, I am off to work.


Have a great Monday, IRG
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Good morning, everyone. Good evening, Aussie. Huge storm all night long here. About to go from 70's down to 30s to 50's. I can wear my Christmas sweaters to school now, was beginning to wonder if I would be able to this year.
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URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
500 AM EST MON DEC 10 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING...

.AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM AROUND THE
MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD AND LOCALLY ONSHORE FROM PINELLAS
COUNTY TO LEVY COUNTY WILL CREATE VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN 1/4
MILE EARLY THIS MORNING.

GMZ850-853-870-873-101400-
/O.CON.KTBW.MF.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-121210T1400Z/
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
500 AM EST MON DEC 10 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING.

* VISIBILITY...WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE MILE. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAMPABAY
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39736
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39736
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39736
well lets see if the Rain does come,i hope so....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39736
Good Morning folks!..7-day for the Tampa area
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39736
Troy's Forecast Today`:

-2 Exams
-5cm of snow
-Extended period of freezing rain
-Oral Presentation
-20-30mm rain
-Major Project due

Gonna be one of those days!
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Well, I hope everyone has a nice morning-evening, I am off to work.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2583
Quoting indianrivguy:
Good evening Aussie!

Good morning folks!

Evening Mate!
We are still having issues with high winds here in Sydney. Blew over a 300year old Fig Tree in the city today, caused traffic chaos.




Picture: Toby Zerna Source: News Limited
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How are you this morning dear?
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2583
Quoting indianrivguy:
Good evening Aussie!

Good morning folks!
Good morning IRG
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Good evening Aussie!

Good morning folks!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2583
Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE FOR HEAVY RAIN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI AT 10:00PM on Monday the 10th of December 2012

HEAVY RAIN WARNING

HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, EASTERN VITI LEVU, LOMAIVITI AND NORTHERN LAU GROUP.

SITUATION:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F WAS LOCATED ABOUT 200 KILOMETRES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LABASA AT 9PM TODAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOP FURTHER. ASSOCIATED ACTIVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECT MOST PARTS OF FIJI.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, EASTERN VITI LEVU,
LOMAIVITI AND NORTHERN LAU GROUP.

HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN ON HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 01:00 AM TOMORROW


Click image for Loop


Click image for Loop
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JFox0512 Jenna Ostrow
@TxStormChasers outside my apartment in Wichita Falls! pic.twitter.com/KMKn5oZd



TravTapp Travis Wade Tapp
@TxStormChasers Wichita falls around 230am!
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982. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST December 10 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (997 hPa) located at 18.8S 157.2W is reported as slowly moving. Position fair based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C

System lies in a high sheared environment and downstream of an upper level trough. Low level circulation center is partially exposed with convection displaced to the south.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it southwestward with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is LOW.

System #2
-----------

A 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (1003 hPa) located at 14.6S 178.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position fair based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization is slightly improved in past 24 hours. Convection has slightly increased in the past 24 hours. System lies under an upper level ridge in a low sheared environment. The cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 hPa.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it eastward with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is LOW.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.