Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history
The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.
November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.
Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Most extreme January - November period on record
The year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.
Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.
Jeff Masters
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The expression 'Indian summer' has been used for more than two centuries. The earliest known use was by French-American writer John Hector St. John de Crevecoeur in rural New York in 1778: "Then a severe frost succeeds which prepares it to receive the voluminous coat of snow which is soon to follow; though it is often preceded by a short interval of smoke and mildness, called the Indian Summer."
As for the british
In British English St. Martin's Summer was the most widely used term until the American phrase became better known in the 20th century. In the United Kingdom, the term Indian summer is used loosely for a period of unseasonable warmth and sunshine in late September, October, or November. In former times in English-speaking regions of Europe, 'Indian summer' was called Saint Martin's Summer, referring to St. Martin's day, November 11. An alternative was Saint Luke's summer. Another alternative was "All-hallown summer", as All Hallows' is November 1. In the United Kingdom Indian summer is often used to describe warm weather that comes late in the year after unusually cool summer months
This is always a problem where cause and effect can be delayed by sometimes, years. It gives skeptics lots of "cherry picked" data points to attempt to discredit the we "are" getting warmer crowd.
For me, there are two separate issues. Global warming, and anthropogenic global warming. IMO, the first is overwhelmingly supported, it is the second one that seems to start the wars. For me, I just can't ignore the millions of tons of CO2 WE are adding to our Blue Marble. I just don't understand how some can seemingly ignore, or blow off as having no impact when the science is pretty straight forward. It may turn out that this is a "natural" cycle, but to think that we are not exacerbating the problem seems rather sort sighted. JMHO
And by leaving out First Nation people you just lived up to your own insult.
Some say life is a virus. :)
Inanimate objects only follow cause and effect... while we selfishly change our surroundings to adapt our needs. Maybe, a truly wise civilization will have mastered adaptation to its natural environment instead of trying to make space for themselves?
Most of us do not realize how lucky we were to be born in a developed nation with a strong infrastructure and government help when needed. We would rather take shots at the opposite political party than realize that we are all floating in the same boat- there is no America, British, African, First Nation... there is only human.
hint- Read 61. There's no Canadian either :)
My local news paper has a artical titled "Can lightning help predict tornados?" By capital weather gang on the washington post website.
google it because I'm to lazy to give the link.
It had a mini-peak about 6 hours ago with very warm core temperatures and a small eye again, but now its getting some cover over the eye again.
2012DEC07 113000 6.0 929.7/ +2.7 /115.0 6.0 6.4 6.8 2.2T/6hr OFF OFF 11.40 -73.78 EYE 16 IR 15.42 -116.05 COMBO
2012DEC07 123000 6.0 929.6/ +2.6 /115.0 6.0 6.4 6.6 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF 4.49 -72.86 EYE 16 IR 15.50 -116.16 COMBO
2012DEC07 125700 6.1 927.0/ +2.6 /117.4 6.1 6.4 6.6 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF 5.59 -73.47 EYE 16 IR 15.64 -116.17 COMBO
2012DEC07 133000 6.2 924.4/ +2.6 /119.8 6.2 6.4 6.5 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF -12.05 -74.96 EYE -99 IR 15.71 -116.19 COMBO
2012DEC07 135700 6.3 921.8/ +2.6 /122.2 6.3 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -33.63 -75.54 EYE -99 IR 15.66 -116.20 SPRL
2012DEC07 143000 6.3 921.8/ +2.5 /122.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -30.16 -75.54 EYE/P -99 IR 15.81 -116.32 SPRL
2012DEC07 145700 6.3 921.7/ +2.5 /122.2 6.3 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -33.65 -75.35 EYE/P -99 IR 15.86 -116.34 SPRL
2012DEC07 153000 6.3 921.7/ +2.5 /122.2 6.1 5.2 5.2 0.7T/6hr ON OFF -60.44 -74.91 EMBC N/A 15.91 -116.36 SPRL
2012DEC07 155700 6.3 921.7/ +2.5 /122.2 5.9 5.2 5.2 0.7T/6hr ON OFF -63.66 -75.63 EMBC N/A 15.96 -116.37 SPRL
2012DEC07 163000 6.3 921.7/ +2.5 /122.2 5.8 5.2 4.7 0.7T/6hr ON FLG -74.91 -74.47 UNIFRM N/A 16.01 -116.81 SPRL
2012DEC07 165700 6.3 921.6/ +2.4 /122.2 5.6 5.0 4.6 1.2T/12hr ON FLG -72.83 -72.85 UNIFRM N/A 16.35 -116.72 SPRL
Last time it was calculated, the radius of maximum winds was still 16NM.
from Biff:
Remember that question about humans being responsible for more than 100% of the warming? That was because without our contributions the trend would continue to be cooler. Right?
from Biff:
Adapt or die. If we can't change it, then we put all our effort into adaptation and anticipation...like weather forecasting improvements. Yippee! Both sides can agree on that.
Also I started picking up on something awhile ago.I noticed that big blockbuster storms occur 40+ days apart with each other and had a second but a much smaller storm on scale follow right behind.
For a example back in 2009 in December we had a big blizzard around the 17 or 18 a week later a smaller storm followed and dumped rain about a week after.Then! 40+ days later(in February) another big storm happened that was followed by a smaller storm on scale.Like how Sandy this year was a big storm only to be followed by a week later with another storm.So if my calculations are correct I expect another big storm within a week or two...Before December is out.
Cat/max wind - Size - Speed/Rain
Bopha
5-1-4
Sandy
1-6-2
something like that.
Since microcanes don't do as much damage overall even with high max wind speeds (unless you are a small island)
Fast hurricanes also do much less damage than the ones that park and hammer the shorelines/dump rain for days on end.
I think storm surge is a product of the three numbers.
If there was a 4th number, it would be for preparedness.
0 = fish storm, 1 = hitting places that are used to it and less developed, 2 = places that have a regular history/more developed, 3 = highly developed/with some history, 4 = unprepared/ very rare, 5 = unprecedented.
10 had their second warmest
6 had their third warmest
3 had their 4th warmest
1 had 5th warmest
38 states had top 5 warmest years.
Rank StateNum State% Log(1+(1/N))
1 18 0.375 0.301
2 10 0.208 0.176
3 06 0.125 0.1249
4 03 0.0625 0.0969
5 01 outlier
It's not perfect, but it's following the "Law of large numbers," which means that since this is maximum records, the opposite of a normal statistical Bell curve, you'd expect the number of first place records for individual states to be lower if it was obeying a normal Bell curve. So seeing the reverse of a "statistical" hottest year ever, with more individual members each having their first, second, or third hottest year ever than not, then this represents an incredible amount of forcing on a continental scale.
Probability of any one state randomly having a record year:
0.407
Probability of any of 18 states randomly having record years during the same year somewhere in a 118 year data set.
5.27 in ten thousand.
And, looks like the Northeast could get hammered.... not what people who are still dealing with 'Sandy' need.
First severe wx chance:
IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT FORCING AND STRONG GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT
THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
_________________________________________________ _
So then we move to 192 hrs and a potentially significant negatively tilted trough:
INTERACTION BETWEEN A BELT
OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...AND ANOTHER
EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL LEAD TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE U.S. LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
_________________________________________________
Right behind this system we have another system, barely 2-3 days later, note the first trough still off the northeasteast coast:
This threatens to drop snow as far south as N GA but I cant tell if there is an appreciable severe wx threat, but it would stay in S GA/N FL anyway
_________________________________________________ ___
And then the whole thing turns into a great long lasting Nor'easter with LOTS of snow for the NE and Mid atlantic:
_________________________________________________ __
And before that is even finally done with the NE, a new system comes with storms for the SE and snow AGAIN for the Midatlantic and NE:
_________________________________________________ _
Amplified pattern much?
Saw that on the last blog. LOL'd have to say.
Jennifer Francis, Professor, Institute of Marine and Coastal Studies, Rutgers University, presents a very good argument they are connected and we are witnessing it already.
The Short Version
The Long Version
If one state is having record temperatures, the odds of adjacent states having record temperatures is not some random number, it is greatly increased. A state next to a record warm state is NOT going to have a record cold temperature, as could happen with a random sample of numbers.
-spatial ed.
Video of a tornado in Dolores
Just do IKE values, or for simplicity, do nested circles for rings according to this formula:
(1/S)*(R^2)*(V^2)
Where:
V is in units of 1 = 25knts.
R is in units of 1 = 25nautical miles radius.
S is in units of 1 = 10 kts forward speed.
You could further break it down by quadrant and do the rings in each quadrant individually, so you get a better number for lop-sided storms.
This approximates IKE, but doesn't require "fancy" math.
A computer can do this for an entire storm in less than a second. If I had access to the data set used to make this map, I could write the code in a few minutes, and you can get a GOOD approximation of these nested rings just using the data printed at the bottom left on the map, subtracting out the area of the inner rings or quadrants of rings, of course.
So easy a caveman can do it.
So basically El nino hides out this winter, comes back to ruin severe weather season, and leaves by summer....
grrrrrr:
They were WRONG about last winter being colder than average. They were then WRONG about this hurricane season being below average.
They could be wrong about this one as well.
"Now, adding to the darkening of the surface that comes with more meltwater is the soot from Arctic tundra wildfires, another phenomenon that seems to be increasing with global warming. As these wildfires rage, atmospheric currents carry their smoke plumes over other areas, including Greenland, as the CALIPSO images show. The soot drops out from these plumes and darkens the ice sheet, exacerbating the feedback cycle of melting."
I realize that.
Maybe I should have made that clear.
The map shows every bomb dropped on London during "the Blitz" in WWII
I think that the rules have changed with ice melt. It may or maynot be a significant change... but still one that changes what we were taught to think. Science does not know what it has not yet studied with rising sea water levels or how they interact with atmosphere. This is just a new beginning that needs an open mind for a different approach from what we have seen in historical past. AND no... I am not a scientist. Just an observation.
Bappit,
Feedback cycles is what makes global warming such a huge, urgent issue. One thing leads to another. CO2 goes up, makes wildfires that melt Greenland ice and permafrost releasing methane, which causes more greenhouse effect. Also exaserbating the situation: the human volcano of coal smoke coming out of China and India, 24/7/365 for the last 20 years.
It's unremarkable compared to the existing normal expiration rate globally.
If you want to help the economy, do forced vaccinations for all strains of all possible diseases for a few years, instead of only vaccinating a few strains of the flu and 3 or 4 other things like they do now, and the results would then be that most diseases would go extinct and save TRILLIONS world wide in medical expenses, and greatly increase the average human life expectancy and quality of life.
Governments don't do that because they actually WANT high expiration rates among the elderly and disabled, in order to remove them from social programs. I find this appalling, but true.
If you visit certain other science sites, you will find many ultra-liberals (who are often otherwise very intelligent people,) actually want forced birth rates to one per woman, and forced world population decrease by withholding vaccines and medicine and other such things.
If they vaccinated everyone and made most of the diseases go extinct, people would be much healthier for most of their lives and would visit hospitals and especially emergency rooms far less often.
Think of all the people would wouldn't miss work as often for flus and tummy aches and such.
Currently, we literally vaccinate and medicate pets and livestock better than human beings, because we want the livestock to live long enough to be edible, but governments want the sick and elderly to die so they get off the payroll.
MRSA and VRSA?
The CURE has been known by the scientific community for at least 4 years now. There are two approaches which WORK and kill the bacteria before it can adapt, and neither of them need any new technology or medicines. Yet neither has been implemented. Why?
source
That's out-dated since it was a low estimate, and we've actually already passed 7 billion since then.
By the time 2030 rolls around 100 million deaths per year will probably be normal expiration rate, because we're not likely to get the most radically advanced technologies to extend life before then anyway, and the technologies which have been proposed tend to work best over a person's entire life span. Which means death rates will mostly stay about the same curve up until then.
Opps...I meant the 2nd half of the month(especially toward the Winter Solstice) Link.:)
I am alone in the house, not even the cat. I clicked on both links to open in a new tab and thought it was text. A minute later someone VERY close starts talking to me.. I almost jumped out of my chair.. it was one of your videos starting.. a blonde moment..
Also, a rare, destructive tornado in Auckland, New Zealand, which killed three people and put seven in hospital.
Link
Trough isn't deep enough (possibly anyway) and so it doesn't push the storm out. Then a high behind it pushes the storm back south and west (possibly).
Models may be a bit wrong. Maybe the storm hits the Philippines again before the loop happens, or during the second part of the loop, if it isn't as tight as the forecast shows, all assuming it happens at all.
Plus the model could just be out to lunch.
Data isn't as good over there because we don't have as much instrumentation as in the U.S. so the error bars on any forecast are a lot bigger.
Appears statistical models have done better lately.....
From December Monthly Ocean Briefing
RTS, got a link for these cures? I am very interested in this. Thanks!
Anyone notice the decent sized space rock forecasted to come in very close proximity to us on the 15th of February???
Link
2012 DA14 will pass within .09 Lunar Distance from earth!
Can't fine the article I read on it, but here is some info I remember from it:
This asteroid will pass close enough to be seen through a normal backyard telescope.
It will also come through the GPS satellite ring possibly impacting one.
It is not currently expected to hit Earth, but if it did, it would not cause significant damage unless it hit a population center (Pacific Ocean impact is most likely if it does become inbound, given the current forecast)
The article is speaking of deaths caused by climate change, not deaths by all causes. If there are more people, common sence would tell you that there will be more deaths.
wow... that's a loooong way to move.. from Cayo Hueso to Modoc Country :)
At least its not Detroit.
Did you post this just for me?.lol.
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