Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on December 07, 2012

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The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.

November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Most extreme January - November period on record
The year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Mate!
You know me, It take a lot to ruffle my feathers.

How are ya mate, had any rain lately?


Getting nice gentle showers all the time now.
Very nice sunshine in between.

All is good !
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331. yoboi
Quoting AussieStorm:

so by not attributing who wrote the article or which source it came from, you call it stealing. Geez, If people ignore me for that. I'm glad. As I said. if it's against WU's terms of use, why haven't I been banned????????????


dont let nea get to ya.....he is just mad because i found where he get's his talking points...he is having a bad morn...
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Post 323.

That's a Grim situation there.
I have been noticing changes in forest vegetation here as well.
Particularly with trees flowering and fruiting out-of-season, due to rainfall changes, temp anomalies, and the like.

Trees make fruit (seeds) at particular times to coincide with optimum conditions for seed dispersal, germination and seedling growth.

When seeds are dispersed/sown at the 'wrong' time, they do not germinate or grow.

The forest will not be sustained if this is the situation.
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Quoting pottery:
Good evening, Aussie.
Take it easy, man.

Hey Mate!
You know me, It take a lot to ruffle my feathers.

How are ya mate, had any rain lately?
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In case you haven't seen it, the 2012 Arctic Report Card.

Link

It has a 2 minute video embedded.
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Good evening, Aussie.
Take it easy, man.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Sorry if saying so offends your "I'll steal whatever I want!" war cry, but it's the truth.)

Cheers, mate!

so by not attributing who wrote the article or which source it came from, you call it stealing. Geez, If people ignore me for that. I'm glad. As I said. if it's against WU's terms of use, why haven't I been banned????????????
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Quoting Neapolitan:
You couldn't be more wrong legally or ethically (and WU's terms of use expressly forbid it). But that's probably why so many have you on ignore.

Cheers, mate!

So why haven't I be banned?????????
If it wasn't allowed.
How do you know so many have me on ignore? How do you know, you hack there accounts, now that is illegal and unethical. What makes you think I actually care people have me on ignore. I have 170 handles on ignore so I probably have them on ignore already. Oh and don't call me Mate, you are no mate of mine.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Seriously, who give's a rats if there is credit given. If it's on the web, then copyright is lost.
You couldn't be more wrong legally or ethically (and WU's terms of use expressly forbid it). But that's probably why so many have you on ignore.

(See how percylives is doing it this morning? Providing links and attribution? It's the right thing to do. Sorry if saying so offends your "I'll steal whatever I want!" war cry, but it's the truth.)

Cheers, mate!
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
More on climate change and its effects from the AGU meeting.

Widespread Devastation Found in 2010 Amazon Megadrought

by Eli Kintisch on 7 December 2012, 6:27 PM

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA—A megadrought that struck the Amazon in 2010 devastated millions of hectares of the rainforest, new data presented here suggest. The results shed new light on a scientific debate over the effects of such recent climatic events.

Initial data released today at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union indicate that as many as one in 25 trees died in areas with the most severe water scarcity. The findings also suggest that previous techniques using satellites to measure drought stress in rainforests may be missing dire impacts of a warming global climate, which many scientists believe will cause more droughts in those critical habitats.

"To say the effects were severe is putting it lightly," says forest ecologist Gregory Asner of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Palo Alto, California, who led the research. Asner runs the Carnegie Airborne Observatory, which scans the forest from a slow-flying plane 2000 meters above the treetops. The $11 million scanner measures the shape and chemical signatures of the forest using lidar and a spectrometer, allowing scientists to identify individual tree species, determine their health, and measure their size and mass precisely—all from the air. The 2010 drought followed a similarly severe one in 2005 and a less intense one in 2007. "The whole system is stressed out and falling apart," Asner says.

More than a year and a half before the drought began, Carnegie scientists flew repeated missions over a 500,000-hectare patch of forest in Brazil and Peru. Rainfall data showed that roughly three-fifths of that area had gone through severe drought. The flights enabled the scientists to quantify tree loss "down to the falling branches," Asner says. The spectral data allowed the team to add 21 chemical signatures, including water content and leaf pigment, to assess the health of the forest. All told, Asner concludes, 4% of the trees in the severe drought area had died, a rate of mortality four times the baseline rate in areas with normal rainfall.

That rate is based on unpublished preliminary data. If it holds up under peer review, it could help resolve a long-standing debate over whether repeated droughts are harming the rainforest. A 2007 paper, for example, concluded from satellite data that rainforests may be "more resilient to climate changes than ecosystem models assume." Later analysis of the same data suggested no trend.

But Craig Allen, a forest ecologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Los Alamos, New Mexico, says the data from Carnegie's cutting-edge device "confirms other lines of evidence" that droughts are killing trees "from Alaska to the Amazon." The data "are bad news," he says, because they suggest climate change could dramatically affect forests in the next few decades. "This isn't a year 2100 thing."

Link

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Quoting Neapolitan:

Not another wannabe blog police man, oh wait that's sexist, can't do that. Let me restate that. "Not another wannabe blog police-person"

Seriously, who give's a rats if there is credit given. If it's on the web, then copyright is lost.
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Wayne Davidson studies atmospheric phenomena through Extremely High Horizon Refraction and reports on his findings through his web site. Wayne researches and resides on the shore of the Northwest Passage in Resolute, Canada.

He has surprised me several times over the past years with very accurate long term weather predictions so when I read this on his related blog I thought it might interest those on this blog that monitor such things. His comments about the predicted ice levels in the 2013 Arctic follow.

"If La-Nina returns full blast, unlikely but if so, the melt in spring and summer time will crush 2012 great melt as a distant old record, the Pole will be sailable. If everything remains Neutral or warmer ENSO wise, the ice pack North Pole will be assailed once again by open sea water, 2012 record melt will be still exceeded."

So according to Wayne there will be no Arctic Ocean ice recovery year in 2013 but rather an even greater melt, perhaps much greater.
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Ticking Arctic Carbon Bomb May Be Bigger Than Thought

From the AGU meeting. Written by Eli Kintisch for Science Now.

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA—Scientists are expressing fresh concerns about the carbon locked in the Arctic's vast expanse of frozen soil. New field studies, presented here this week at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union, quantify the amount of soil carbon at 1.9 trillion metric tons, suggesting that previous estimates underestimated the climate risk if this carbon is liberated. Meanwhile, a new analysis of laboratory experiments that simulate carbon release by thawed soil is bolstering worries that continued carbon emissions could unleash a massive Arctic carbon wallop.

Disappearing Arctic ice, which gets most of the attention from climate scientists, is an effect of humanmade climate change. By contrast, the melting of frozen soil, or permafrost, can drive warming. As it thaws, microbes devour carbon previously locked inside, unleashing carbon dioxide—a potent greenhouse gas—in the process. The carbon dioxide amplifies the warming power of carbon pollution in a vicious feedback loop.
....

Those logistical constraints have largely limited researchers' previous estimates of carbon to the top meter of permafrost. But scientists think that carbon down to a depth of 3 meters is susceptible to thawing and release as well. An influential 2009 estimate that Arctic permafrost held 1.6 trillion metric tons of carbon included only 45 field sites analyzed down to that depth. In the new study, Hugelius added 405 new analyses of field sites that went to 3 meters, some through new field work he and colleagues performed, some from archived data. Adding up the carbon found in different soil types he says, yields an initial new estimate of 1894 billion metric tons of carbon locked into permafrost across the Arctic, 13% more than the previous estimate.

After better quantifying the size of stored Arctic carbon, the next question for researchers is how much permafrost will thaw as the planet warms. A modeling study published earlier this year suggested that if global emissions trends stay constant, by 2100 permafrost holding 436 gigatons of carbon could thaw. But determining the size of the permafrost threat also requires calculating how much of the carbon in thawed permafrost will be decomposed by microbes and released as CO2. In a presentation at the meeting, soil biogeochemist Christina Schaedel of the University of Florida in Gainesville discussed that question. She analyzed nine previous studies in which researchers took samples of thawed permafrost to discover how much carbon would be released. In those studies, researchers incubated the soil in bottles at constant temperatures in their laboratories for a year or more. Over 50 years, she concludes, thawed permafrost could release 20% of its available carbon, a figure she called "a conservative estimate."

That could amount to a carbon pulse larger than 2 years' worth of global humanmade emissions. In terms of global climate change, the new studies show that "the actual situation is worse" than policymakers realize, says Peter Griffith, an ecosystems ecologist with NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The result could be an acceleration of impacts from humanmade greenhouse gas pollution: sea level rise, more intense droughts, and ocean acidification. "What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic," he says.

......

In terms of Arctic studies, "ice gets all the love," Griffith says. "That's because we have a very robust [satellite] capability for remotely sensing ice." To understand the threat hidden within permafrost, it's time for more scientists to get their boots dirty.
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319. yoboi
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Imported from the previous blog.

I didn't get the opportunity to reply to this, this morning. It's slow now and I'm not at work so here goes. I posted this, this morning.


Quoting PensacolaDoug:

You don't understand human nature. The people who are driven to succeed are motivated by the opportunities to create and amass great wealth. Take it away and the incentive is gone. People who get stuff for nothing or very little effort, lose motivation to improve their lot.


Nea Replied


I agree with you, Doug. The 1950s--when the top personal income tax rate was 91%--were a dismal time in America, with no one motivated to do anything. Sure, it was a prosperous decade for most Americans, as we had the highest standard of living in the world, because American workers made the highest wages in the world, and enjoyed the best benefits and the longest vacations in the world. And, yes, most of the world's high tech R&D was in America, and we made the best cars and everything else in the world. And, to be sure, America's middle class and public school system and military and manufacturing base were the envy of the world. And, okay, we built the best highway system in the world at that time, and unemployment was at record low levels then. But aside from all that, the nation's wealthiest were clearly de-incentivized, for no one was able to create and amass great wealth. I mean, aside from all those who were.

This reply by Nea is intended to sway the ill-informed.

Here's the real deal. Nobody paid the the 91% "top rate". The extremely wealthy, were able to exploit tax breaks written into the tax code to avoid the highest rates. Notice I didn't use the prejorative term "loop-hole". The term "loop-hole" implies some sleazy underhanded accounting 'trick' to avoid paying what you owe. There is no such thing as a "loop-hole". Your deductions, business or personal, are either legal or illegal. It truly is, as simple as that.
Furthermore, the business enviornment of the 1950's bears no resemblance to current economics. In the 1950's we had defeated the Axis powers the previous decade and reconstruction of Europe and Japan was in full swing. America got the vast majority of the contracts and America had a manufacturing base that the rest of the world could only envy. Money flowed like water. To compare the 1950's to now, is not comparing "apples to apples". On the surface Nea's post sounds "reasonable", "informed" even, and he's smart enough to know it. If you dig a little deeper, you'll realize it's an attempt to mislead the underinformed.

Sorry for the rant.




nea also forgot to say that there was only 256 people who were at the 91% rate....nea gets his talking points from the tides foundattion.....it took me awhile but i figured out his mo....
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wow the 7-day has Changed next week..maybe some Rain??
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39025
Quoting aguacane:
how about just posting a link to the article instead of copy and pasting the whole darn thing
At the very least, he should try to abide by copyright law and WU's terms of use by including attribution and links to the original source material. And better yet, also edit what he pastes so only the most salient points are delivered. Finally, things he's quoting verbatim should be set off in italics to avoid the reader confusing them with things he wrote himself.

For instance, instead of the simple paste-and-post in #299, he might have done something like this, which only takes a few seconds longer, doesn't necessarily break any laws, and would probably help keep him off some ignore lists:

------------------------------------------

Troubled UN climate talks spill over

ABC.NET.AU: International talks aiming to address global climate change have been extended amidst fears they may collapse altogether.

The talks in Doha, Qatar began in late November and were expected to wrap up late last night local time. The key issues under consideration were the extension of the Kyoto Protocol, which expires at the end of December, and aid for developing nations who will be most affected by the changing climate.

Dr Chuks Okereke, School of Human and Environmental Sciences at the University of Reading said: "The biggest stumbling block at the UN climate negotiations is the tension between developing and developed countries. From the developing world perspective the developed countries have failed in their commitments on three counts: domestic emission reductions; technology transfer; and, most crucially, finance. Climate change is ultimately a question of justice and those who have contributed the most should assume responsibility in solving the problem."

While expectations were low for the Doha meeting, the failure of the talks to drive the formation of a treaty has raised doubts about the future of the United Nations climate negotiations.


Source: Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
Good Morning Folks..Fog is the word this morning whew..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39025
Philippines braces as deadly typhoon turns back

A typhoon that has killed hundreds of people and left tens of thousands homeless in the southern Philippines has turned back towards the country and will hit it again.

Weather forecasters said Typhoon Bopha will slam into the northern tip of the main island of Luzon on Sunday, packing gusts of up to 160 kilometres per hour, the state weather service said.

The powerful typhoon lashed the country's south earlier in the week, killing more than 500 people.

Civil defence office director Benito Ramos said it was likely to bring heavy rainfall to the area.

"People there need to take precautions," he added.

The eye of the cyclone was 230 kilometres west of the northern town of Sinait on Saturday afternoon (local time) and moving slowly northeast, the service said.

Heavy to intense rainfall was expected within the typhoon's 400-kilometre footprint.

Earlier a state of national calamity was declared in the wake of devastation caused by the storm system.

President Benigno Aquino says the state of national calamity will speed up the release of funds for rescue and retrieval operations as well as repairing damaged infrastructure in more than 20 provinces.

Under a state of national calamity, a price freeze on commodities is imposed and interest free loans are granted for affected cities and provinces.

Mr Aquino previously allocated $US200 million and is hoping to release additional funds.

Damage to infrastructure and agriculture is estimated at almost $US100 million.

Rescue officials say at least 540 people have been confirmed dead in the Philippines following the deadly typhoon.

Regional military spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Lyndon Paniza told AFP the region's armed forces had retrieved 506 bodies on the east coast of the southern island of Mindanao and around the southern town of New Bataan.

The civil defence office in Manila said 23 other people were killed elsewhere in Mindanao, along with 11 in the central Visayan islands.

The government agency said 383 people remained missing while the number of survivors who have sought refuge at government shelters has grown to more than 306,000.

Social welfare secretary Corazon Soliman said people who had lost their homes and livelihoods were flocking in droves to the crowded camps for food and shelter.

From ABC
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Quoting KarenRei:


Up here in Reykjavík, it's not looked at as "13 days until the end of the universe" - it's "13 days until the day length starts getting longer again instead of shorter" ;) At the solstice here the sun only gets 2 1/2 degrees above the horizon. Still another half an hour of daylight to lose before we get to that point, though.


I'm 600 miles south of Reykjavik. Sunrise is currently 8.30 am (GMT).
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Quoting KarenRei:
@Aussie: Why did you edit your post to add "Please, before you open your mouth, engage your brain first." ? Most people edit posts to take out brash insults, not to add them in. And especially to add something like that at the same time you were taking out the bogus Sandy cost comparison you had made earlier...

I re-read my comment and made changes, also found out I had made a mistake. i.e: Sandy

I didn't think I insulted anyone. Just said before people open there mouth they should engage there brain or they say stuff they might regret and can't take back.
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@Aussie: Why did you edit your post to add "Please, before you open your mouth, engage your brain first." ? Most people edit posts to take out brash insults, not to add them in. And especially to add something like that at the same time you were taking out the bogus Sandy cost comparison you had made earlier...
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Quoting aguacane:
how about just posting a link to the article instead of copy and pasting the whole darn thing

In busy periods I just post links, but since it's not busy I post the whole article. Your lucky I don't post the whole National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) update report on the effects of Typhoon "Pablo"(Bopha). The current one is 31 pages.

You can read it here if your interested. The current cost of Pablo/Bopha is 4.170Bil Peso or US$101.81Mil. 459 dead, 464 injured and 532 missing.

Please, before you open your mouth, engage your brain first. You might not like it but your very much in the minority.
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Quoting aguacane:
how about just posting a link to the article instead of copy and pasting the whole darn thing
Aussie does a wonderful job here and keeps all informed. Just scrolling past his posts may be an alternative for you
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Quoting docrod:
13 days 5 hours to the end of the Universe OR just the winter solstice! - (sigh)


Up here in Reykjavík, it's not looked at as "13 days until the end of the universe" - it's "13 days until the day length starts getting longer again instead of shorter" ;) At the solstice here the sun only gets 2 1/2 degrees above the horizon. Still another half an hour of daylight to lose before we get to that point, though.
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Quoting aguacane:
how about just posting a link to the article instead of copy and pasting the whole darn thing


I prefer the cut and pastes.
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how about just posting a link to the article instead of copy and pasting the whole darn thing
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RESCUER SAYS:
"Pablo" victims "loot" shops to survive


NEW BATAAN, Philippines - Hungry and homeless typhoon survivors appealed for help Saturday as the ravaged southern Philippines mourned its more than 500 dead and desperate people in one hard-hit town looted shops in search of food.
Four days after Typhoon Bopha struck the major island of Mindanao, officials have struggled to bring in food and relief convoys through roads that had been blocked or swept away by floods and avalanches of rock, logs and mud.
About 4,000 residents in the destroyed farming village of Maparat had eaten the enclave's surviving chickens and were left with scavenging fallen coconut fruits, said nursing mother Virginia Dodres, 38.
I tried to breast-feed Mica, but they're dry from lack of food. So I gave her coconut water, and now she's down with colic, mother-of-four Dodres told AFP as she comforted her crying one-year-old daughter.
All the houses had been carried off by floods and survivors were sleeping 80 to a room on the bare concrete floor of the local elementary school.
They share the toilet's two stalls and are doing their washing and bathing at a nearby spring, which is also their only source of water.
Dodres said church workers with two big pots of porridge arrived Saturday bearing the first relief aid to Maparat, located a few kilometres (miles) from the devastated town of New Bataan. The food was gobbled up within minutes.
The village of flattened coconut and banana plants is linked by a muddy footpath to the main highway, where residents hung a hand-painted arrow with a crude sign on canvas that read: Evacuation Area. Please Help Victims.

Rescue officials said Mindanao's east coast accounted for all but 40 of the 546 known deaths from the strongest typhoon to hit the country this year.
More than 500 other people are missing.
At least 211,000 people are taking refuge at crowded government-run shelters, according to the civil defence office in Manila.
Military trucks brought scores of coffins into Maparat early Saturday, as unidentified corpses retrieved from under rubble piled up at a government yard.
Cedric Daep, a public safety specialist, said desperate survivors looted shops and warehouses in Cateel, a hard-hit town on the Mindanao coast in the early aftermath of Bopha's landfall there.
The food aid took so long to arrive that the locals broke into whatever building (was) left standing in search of something to eat, said Daep, who was sent to the south to help organise the disaster response.
Officials said damage to roads and bridges by floods and landslides trapped 150,000 people for three days in Cateel and the nearby towns of Baganga and Boston, where they said 97 percent of buildings were flattened or unroofed.
A Philippine Navy patrol vessel with 31 tonnes of emergency relief and 132 volunteer aid workers reached Baganga on Thursday, navy spokesman Omar Tonsay told AFP, saying he had not heard of the Cateel looting.
Daep said the region suffered its last strong typhoon in 1922, and had little expertise in coping with them.
You have to organise (pre-disaster) evacuation, relief distribution systems, and putting up temporary shelters They were not prepared, he said.
Daep said survivors needed a reliable supply of food, safe water, shelter and clothing.

From Inquirer
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FLATOUT BROKEN The view from the air of Boston town in Davao Oriental province shows the massive devastation wrought by Typhoon "Pablo" on Tuesday morning. The President said he will declare a state of calamity.

From Inquirer
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"PABLO" AFTERMATH
Aquino declares state of national calamity


MANILA, Philippines - President Benigno Aquino III has signed Proclamation No. 522 declaring a state of national calamity due to the severe gravity of the damage wrought by typhoon "Pablo", according to Malacanang.
Compostela Valley, Davao Oriental and Davao del Norte in Region XI; Surigao del Sur in CARAGA Region; Lanao del Norte, Misamis Oriental and Cagayan de Oro City in Region X; Siquijor in Region VII; and, Palawan in Region IV-B were hard hit by the typhoon that left over 400 people dead and destroyed billions of pesos worth of property and crops.
The palace said the proclamation would hasten the rescue, relief and rehabilitation efforts of the government and the private sector, including international humanitarian assistance, and will "effectively control the prices of basic goods and commodities for the affected areas. Price control lasts for 60 days unless lifted.
The proclamation will also allow the granting of no-interest loans by government financing or lending institutions to victims and further affords local government units ample latitude to utilize their respective calamity funds, it said.

From Inquirer
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Vice President Jejomar C. Binay consoles one of the victims of Typhoon Pablo in New Bataan, Compostela Valley. Binay visited Compostela Valley, Davao Oriental and Surigao del Sur Thursday to assess the damaged caused by the typhoon and check on the conditions of those who were affected.

From Inquirer
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President Aquino distributes food packs on Friday at the evacuation center in Barangay Cabinuan, New Bataan, Compostela Valley to families displaced by the flash floods and landslides spawned by Typhoon Pablo. The typhoon is the worst to hit Mindanao in two decades.

From Inquirer
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Quoting AussieStorm:

They have no evidence, it's all conspiracy theories. That's it... end of story.


I think the relative lack of hurricanes striking the United States coast is mostly attributable to global warming, as the melting of arctic sea ice has become quite expansive over the last few summers. As I said before, this is an untested hypothesis, but at least I have the balls to admit when I have no evidence.
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A resident traverses piles of broken logs swept down by Typhoon Pablo in New Bataan, Compostela Valley on Friday. The worst typhoon to hit the country this year claimed hundreds of lives and destroyed the crops and livelihood of several villages.

_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________
Desperate 'Pablo' victims await aid

NEW BATAAN, Philippines - Hungry and homeless typhoon survivors appealed for help Saturday as the ravaged southern Philippines mourned its more than 500 dead and desperate people in one hard-hit town looted shops in search of food.

Four days after Typhoon Pablo (Bopha) struck the major island of Mindanao, officials have struggled to bring in food and relief convoys through roads that had been blocked or swept away by floods and avalanches of rock, logs and mud.

About 4,000 residents in the destroyed farming village of Maparat had eaten the enclave's surviving chickens and were left with scavenging fallen coconut fruits, said nursing mother Virginia Dodres, 38.

"I tried to breast-feed Mica, but they're dry from lack of food. So I gave her coconut water, and now she's down with colic," mother-of-four Dodres told AFP as she comforted her crying one-year-old daughter.

All the houses had been carried off by floods and survivors were sleeping 80 to a room on the bare concrete floor of the local elementary school.

They share the toilet's two stalls and are doing their washing and bathing at a nearby spring, which is also their only source of water.

Dodres said church workers with two big pots of porridge arrived Saturday bearing the first relief aid to Maparat, located a few kilometers (miles) from the devastated town of New Bataan. The food was gobbled up within minutes.

The village of flattened coconut and banana plants is linked by a muddy footpath to the main highway, where residents hung a hand-painted arrow with a crude sign on canvas that read: "Evacuation Area. Please Help Victims."

Rescue officials said Mindanao's east coast accounted for all but 40 of the 546 known deaths from the strongest typhoon to hit the country this year.

More than 500 other people are missing.

At least 211,000 people are taking refuge at crowded government-run shelters, according to the civil defense office in Manila.

Military trucks brought scores of coffins into Maparat early Saturday, as unidentified corpses retrieved from under rubble piled up at a government yard.

Cedric Daep, a public safety specialist, said desperate survivors looted shops and warehouses in Cateel, a hard-hit town on the Mindanao coast in the early aftermath of Bopha's landfall there.

"The food aid took so long to arrive that the locals broke into whatever building (was) left standing in search of something to eat," said Daep, who was sent to the south to help organize the disaster response.

Officials said damage to roads and bridges by floods and landslides trapped 150,000 people for three days in Cateel and the nearby towns of Baganga and Boston, where they said 97 percent of buildings were flattened or unroofed.

A Philippine Navy patrol vessel with 31 tons of emergency relief and 132 volunteer aid workers reached Baganga on Thursday, navy spokesman Omar Tonsay told AFP, saying he had not heard of the Cateel looting.

Daep said the region suffered its last strong typhoon in 1922, and had little expertise in coping with them.

"You have to organize (pre-disaster) evacuation, relief distribution systems, and putting up temporary shelters... They were not prepared," he said.

Daep said survivors needed a reliable supply of food, safe water, shelter and clothing.

From Inquirer
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Troubled UN climate talks spill over

International talks aiming to address global climate change have been extended amid fears they may collapse altogether.

Talks at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Doha, Qatar, aimed to finalise an agreement on cutting greenhouse gas emissions to replace the Kyoto Protocol.

The key issues under consideration were the extension of the Kyoto Protocol, which expires at the end of December, and aid for developing nations who will be most affected by the changing climate.

The conference was due to wrap up late last night (local time), but will now resume after talks stalled in the dying hours.

Dr Chuks Okereke, from the School of Human and Environmental Sciences at the University of Reading, says tension between developing and developed countries has delayed negotiations.

"The biggest stumbling block at the UN climate negotiations is the tension between developing and developed countries," he said.

"From the developing world perspective, the developed countries have failed in their commitments on three counts: domestic emission reductions; technology transfer; and, most crucially, finance.

"Climate change is ultimately a question of justice and those who have contributed the most should assume responsibility in solving the problem."

The Kyoto Protocol, drafted in 1997, aimed to reduce the world's greenhouse gas emissions by around five per cent from 1990 levels by the end of 2012.

Instead, global greenhouse gases have risen around 58 per cent in that time.

Green groups and scientists say while a global treaty to address emissions by 2015 has been agreed upon, it does not go far enough.

Lidy Nacpil of Jubilee South Asia Pacific, an alliance of environmental and social justice organisations, says the wording is vague and ineffective.

"[It's] a million miles from where we need to be to even have a small chance of preventing runaway climate change," she said.

Ms Nacpil is based in the Philippines which is currently experiencing devastation as a result of Typhoon Bopha.

"As civil society movements, we are saying that this is not acceptable," she said.

"We cannot go back to our countries and tell them that we allowed this to happen, that we condemned our own future.

We cannot go back to the Philippines, to our dead, to our homeless, to our outrage, and tell them that we accepted this."

While expectations were low for the Doha meeting, the failure of the talks to drive the formation of a treaty has raised doubts about the future of the United Nations climate negotiations.

Asad Rehman, spokesperson for Friends of the Earth International, described the meeting as "an empty shell, an insult to our futures".

From ABC
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EU hails PH "preparedness" against "Pablo"

BRUSSSELS, Belgium - Despite the high death toll of typhoon "Pablo", the European Union's coordinating body for humanitarian aid shared the observations of the United Nations lauding the Philippines preparedness for the latest killer storm to hit the country.
Officials of the European Community Humanitarian Office (Echo) on Friday cited an improvement in the government response, saying that it "saved a lot of lives," compared with what was seen a year ago when Storm Sendong devastated parts of Mindanao, also days before Christmas.
Echo officials in the Belgian capital, host city of EU institutions, said also that a team from its Bangkok office flew to Davao on Friday to assess how it can help in the emergency relief effort. The team is expected to make a report to Brussels on Sunday.
When Bopha (the typhoon's international name) or Pablo hit, I think the government was more prepared than it had been in the past, said Jenny Correia Nunes, Echo's team leader for Southeast Asia.
Nunes was referring mainly to the preemptive evacuation of residents in areas that were in Pablo's path.
Dominique Gryn, Echo's desk officer for the Philippines, added: "Today the technology is so sophisticated that we can actually predict very precisely when and where the landfall will hit. And in the Philippines we've seen that the preparation that the government made in anticipation of the storm in Mindanao has been extraordinary. And that has saved a lot of lives in itself.
"And we have a clear comparison that we can draw with last year's "Washi" (international name of Sendong) which hit very similar areas and the devastation caused was much larger. Of course we're still seeing what the impact of Bopha is; we have to be careful not to underestimate the damage. But still we can already say that the disaster awareness and preparedness had saved a lot of lives already, she added.
Asked how she could still make this positive assessment despite Pablo's death toll climbing to over 300 and with about an equal number of people still missing as of Friday, Gryn replied: "Yes, the death toll is rising; nobody is countering that. What we're only saying now is that the government has taken certain measures that probably saved a lot of lives. We know this because a year ago the death toll was a lot higher.
Gryn said Echo's partner nongovernmental organizations in the region had also "prepositioned" themselves before the storm made landfall in the areas expected to be hit, and had begun assessing where the EU could help.
She said the EU's assistance could fill "gaps" in the government-led relief effort.
The Echo officials spoke in a briefing with Southeast Asian reporters who were in the Belgian capital on an EU-hosted press tour.
The EU poured in some 7.6 million euros to assist storm- or flood-affected people in the Philippines in 2011. This year, it released 700,000 euros for communities affected by the floods that hit Luzon in August.

From Inquirer
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Quoting KoritheMan:


So what if they are? I never denied that experimentation might be happening. Where's your evidence it's actually doing anything to alter hurricanes, though?

They have no evidence, it's all conspiracy theories. That's it... end of story.
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Here is our Carbon Tax works.


Click image for larger image.


Click image for larger image.
From abc.net.au
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Quoting wxmod:


David Keith recently did an interview where he said that he had dumped a ton of sulphate in the stratosphere while experimenting with geoengineering and many others were working on the same type of program. Did you read the interview. I posted that and a link a few days ago. You probably didn't. He also said geoengineering the whole planet would be extremely cheap, way cheaper than changing our fossil fuel consumptive ways. Now, it seems to me, if changing the whole planet is cheap and can be done with sulphates, modifying a hurricane must be super bargain basement priced.
Minnemike, I don't know who you are or what credentials you have. The same holds true in reverse. But I hope you do know about David Keith and Steven Salter.


So what if they are? I never denied that experimentation might be happening. Where's your evidence it's actually doing anything to alter hurricanes, though?
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294. Kumo
Quoting RTSplayer:


The point is not to try to treat one poison by administering another, but to actually solve the root problem, which is pollution.


Agreed.

Since getting rid of hydrocarbon combustion engines is currently unrealistic, the only thing we can do safely and economically at this point is to invest in R&D on Carbon Sequestration technologies and storage methods.

Returning atmospheric CO2 to levels that resemble those seen in pre-industrial revolution times and then maintaining a balance should be one of our primary goals in the 21st century.

We need to learn to live with this planet and not off of it if we ever expect to get to a Type 1 Civilization. (Kardashev Scale)
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293. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONE TROPICAL CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
10:30 AM RET December 8 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Claudia (968 hPa) located at 14.2S 75.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 35 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 55 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 14.7S 74.2E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical
48 HRS: 16.7S 74.3E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical
72 HRS: 20.3S 73.3E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================
2354 PM UTC SMISS f16 microwave picture shows an irregular eye with a degraded southern edge. Intensity has been probably slightly over-estimated at 0:00 AM UTC. Current intensity reflects this correction. For the latest hours, the eye is cleaner and has warmed. The 6 hours average DT is 4.5+. Winds radius has been recalibrated thanks to 0357 AM UTC ASCAT path.

The system is slowly moving southwestward as steering mid-tropospheric flow becomes weak. In this context, Claudia should continue on a slow west southwestward drift today. Erratic motion is possible within this time frame. Numerical weather prediction models differ a few within the next 12-24 hours. Saturday night, the mid level ridge is expected to shift to the east and northeast of Caudia and strengthen, producing a northerly steering flow. System is therefore expected to track southward.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until Sunday or very favorable due to two outflow channels on Saturday. This schedule should allow the system to regularly intensify. However, slow motion could restrict this intensification.

On and after Monday, system is expected to track over marginal heat oceanic content associated with stronger vertical wind shear. A weakening trend should start by that time. Extra-tropical process is expected to start by late Tuesday.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45532
292. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #101
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
15:00 PM JST December 8 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (955 hPa) located at 17.5N 117.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.1N 119.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 16.7N 119.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.4N 118.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45532
Quoting Slamguitar:
I'm with you on that.

The normal Winter solstice festivities will continue as planned. That being drinking beer, watching college bowl games with all my brothers and dad, and posting about weather. ^_^
Hallejah.. ..Besides , all our hard work will not go unnoticed as we ascend to the pastures of heaven...The Sports may be even better...Haaaaa..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21407
This would be a monstah..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21407
I'm with you on that.

The normal Winter solstice festivities will continue as planned. That being drinking beer, watching college bowl games with all my brothers and dad, and posting about weather. ^_^
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Quoting Slamguitar:
If the world ends without the NHL season starting back up I will be SO PISSED!!!

That definitely means no more hockey ever.

Not a good way to go out.
I love hockey and never played it, but I have whipped a football a few times. I hope we are here lol, but if we go we go....Simple as that. I am quite sure we will type posts on the 22nd...:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21407
If the world ends without the NHL season starting back up I will be SO PISSED!!!

That definitely means no more hockey ever.

Not a good way to go out.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Quoting docrod:
13 days 5 hours to the end of the Universe OR just the winter solstice! - (sigh)
If it happens so what. It all works out period...:) pffft
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21407
Quoting RTSplayer:


It's gone beyond deductions.


American corporations evade taxes by simply expatriating their "official" main office to Sweden, and the way the tax code works, in most cases they pay zero to the U.S. government, even if the vast majority of the income is from operations on U.S. soil, and even if they don't actually have any important staff in their "official" main offices in Sweden.


One reason this matters is because they have done everything matching the "spirit" of a treason law, except the technicality of it, and they are now outside the boundaries of U.S. law, and have sold the tax revenues of our purchases to a foreign nation.

They made their revenues using U.S. technology, workers, consumers, and infrastructure, but then refuse to pay their taxes, and currently the U.S. government has no legal course to collect.

If that isn't a crime it should be, and the tax code should be modified so that they pay taxes based on the percent of revenue earned on U.S. soil, not by the revenues of some false corporate office which can be moved around the world to support anybody they sell themselves to.

However, one should note that this law might even be impossible to enforce, because of the current day interpretation of the 4th amendment effectively giving a person or group a right to commit a crime as long as they don't get caught, since you can't look for evidence unless you already have the evidence.
Interesting post..I enjoy it when people succeed and make money, but some are greedy and screw things up for others that have worked just as hard..I heard how cut throat it can be when huge amounts of money are concerned. As far as taxes are concerned, almost 20% of my money goes to federal tax, Social Security and Medicare. Plus there is a 10% percent sales tax on almost everything we buy here in TN. I have no problem with it, but I would be happier if they spent our money with a little more consideration..........Considering how hard we work for it.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21407
13 days 5 hours to the end of the Universe OR just the winter solstice! - (sigh)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some strong thunderstorms for Sunday..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21407
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Also. It's our elected represenatives who write the tax code. They have the power to tighten up the tax code to eliminate deductions whenever they choose.


It's gone beyond deductions.


American corporations evade taxes by simply expatriating their "official" main office to Sweden, and the way the tax code works, in most cases they pay zero to the U.S. government, even if the vast majority of the income is from operations on U.S. soil, and even if they don't actually have any important staff in their "official" main offices in Sweden.


One reason this matters is because they have done everything matching the "spirit" of a treason law, except the technicality of it, and they are now outside the boundaries of U.S. law, and have sold the tax revenues of our purchases to a foreign nation.

They made their revenues using U.S. technology, workers, consumers, and infrastructure, but then refuse to pay their taxes, and currently the U.S. government has no legal course to collect.

If that isn't a crime it should be, and the tax code should be modified so that they pay taxes based on the percent of revenue earned on U.S. soil, not by the revenues of some false corporate office which can be moved around the world to support anybody they sell themselves to.

However, one should note that this law might even be impossible to enforce, because of the current day interpretation of the 4th amendment effectively giving a person or group a right to commit a crime as long as they don't get caught, since you can't look for evidence unless you already have the evidence.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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