Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on December 07, 2012

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The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.

November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Most extreme January - November period on record
The year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.

Jeff Masters

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382. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #22
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
11:00 PM PhST December 8 2012
==============================

Typhoon "PABLO" has weakened as it continues to threaten the Ilocos Provinces and La Union area

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [976 hPa] located at 17.7°N 119.4°E or 115 km west of Vigan City has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots gusting up to 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 9 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Luzon Region
--------------
1. Ilocos Norte
2. Ilocos Sur
3. La Union

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon region
-------------
1. Cagayan
2. Calayan grp. of Is.
3. Babuyan grp. of Is.
4. Batanes grp. of Is.
5. Abra
6. Apayao
7. Kalinga
8. Mt. Province
9. Benguet
10. Pangasinan
11. Zambales

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 300 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the seaboard of northern Luzon and the western seaboards of central and southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 a.m. tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46147
Quoting wxchaser97:

:(.....

All I see is green/brown grass and wetness, lucky you...
There could be a pattern change in the next couple weeks though.


Your time will come Isaac. My snow won't be sticking around too long anyway. It's supposed to get up around 36F later.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Quoting plutorising:
in light of yesterday's rant about evil pot, i'd like to propose that we ban absolutely everything that's bad for people. for their own good. because democracy is for small minds and we really need a punishing authority figure over us.

so, how about we ban going to work on mondays? coffee? all sugary things, all processed food, all gmos, all plastic, all electromagnetic waves (especially tvs and microwaves), and especially, why don't we all do what we're told instead of thinking independently?

we'd all be so much happier if we'd just stop struggling and do what (a select few) have determined is right and good.

fts.


Don't forget all the forms of transportation (clean energy or not) that kill countless people each year. I'm going to stop flying just in case I ever crash. Crashing isn't good for my health or the environment. Who cares if it unifies our modern world? That stuff is dangerous!!
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Massive Crevasses and Bendable Ice Affect Stability of Antarctic Ice Shelf

Dec. 7, 2012 — Gaping crevasses that penetrate upward from the bottom of the largest remaining ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula make it more susceptible to collapse, according to University of Colorado Boulder researchers who spent the last four Southern Hemisphere summers studying the massive floating sheet of ice that covers an area twice the size of Massachusetts.

More on Science daily
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Quoting plutorising:
in light of yesterday's rant about evil pot, i'd like to propose that we ban absolutely everything that's bad for people. for their own good. because democracy is for small minds and we really need a punishing authority figure over us.

so, how about we ban going to work on mondays? coffee? all sugary things, all processed food, all gmos, all plastic, all electromagnetic waves (especially tvs and microwaves), and especially, why don't we all do what we're told instead of thinking independently?

we'd all be so much happier if we'd just stop struggling and do what (a select few) have determined is right and good.

fts.


I tried to "+1" that twice but it wouldn't let me...
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Quoting Slamguitar:
Good morning everyone!

I just woke up to a little more snow than I was expecting, about 2.5" of it lay on top of my car.

If my camera was charged I would take pictures. ;)


:(.....

All I see is green/brown grass and wetness, lucky you...
There could be a pattern change in the next couple weeks though.
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376. JRRP
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Appears statistical models have done better lately.....





From December Monthly Ocean Briefing


interesting!!
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Good morning everyone!

I just woke up to a little more snow than I was expecting, about 2.5" of it lay on top of my car.

If my camera was charged I would take pictures. ;)

Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Drought in the Horn of Africa Delays Migrating Birds

Dec. 6, 2012 — The catastrophic drought last year in the Horn of Africa affected millions of people but also caused the extremely late arrival into northern Europe of several migratory songbird species, a study published December 6 in Science shows. Details of the migration route was revealed by data collected from small backpacks fitted on birds showing that the delay resulted from an extended stay in the Horn of Africa.

Read more on Science daily
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Quoting FunnelVortex:
Anything on the winter storm that is supposed to hit Wisconsin?

When it hits, I will give you updates from under the storm.


MN and Nw Wisconsin could get up to 8 inches not exactly a snownami for those folks.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Accuweather is going for a cold Christmas in S FL they say in WPB that it going to be 71 high and 43 low!!:)
for the last 4 years it has been in the 80's!!
well IF it happens it will feel more like Christmas there huh but its a long way off and things can change, supposed to be 70 for a high around ME next week..must be a strong cold front coming, but it would be great if it hung around til Christmas huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40960
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Pretty pathetic lows though. Not much of a cold front.
lol but its so dry here teddy even a sprinkle or two will help
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40960
in light of yesterday's rant about evil pot, i'd like to propose that we ban absolutely everything that's bad for people. for their own good. because democracy is for small minds and we really need a punishing authority figure over us.

so, how about we ban going to work on mondays? coffee? all sugary things, all processed food, all gmos, all plastic, all electromagnetic waves (especially tvs and microwaves), and especially, why don't we all do what we're told instead of thinking independently?

we'd all be so much happier if we'd just stop struggling and do what (a select few) have determined is right and good.

fts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Scientific American

Arctic Report Card: Dark Times Ahead

Conditions in the Arctic, where several environmental records were broken this year, are slipping rapidly from bad to worse as the pace of climate change accelerates in that region.
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Anything on the winter storm that is supposed to hit Wisconsin?

When it hits, I will give you updates from under the storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yonzabam:


If that's the potential magnitude of the positive feedback from melting permafrost, it's absolutely trivial. She says it's a 'conservative estimate', but it would still be trivial.

Warming oceans becoming less efficient sinks for CO2 is probably of far greater importance. During the record El Nino of 1998, when global SSTs reached a record high, atmospheric CO2 rose by 3 ppm, a very large increase on the annual average.

This was equivalent to all the man made CO2 for that year remaining in the atmosphere. However, there was also rampant wildfires throughout Indonesia that year, which added a significant amount.

Nevertheless, 1998 shows us that we are not far from the point when the ocean not only has no net uptake of man made CO2, but will become a net emitter of CO2.

I doubt if the models factor this in, so it'll be hotter than they think.


It doesn't sound trivial to me. She said the conservative estimate was equal to about 3 years of all human emissions at our present rate and we can't do anything about it. When we are shaving it this close to absolute disaster (some would argue extinction) is anything "absolutely trivial"?

The article didn't mention the real gorilla in the room, the methane clathrates in the Arctic Ocean. The Arctic News Blog continues to publish about this lurking monster. The CO2 from premafrost melt would further heat the atmosphere over the clathrate beds.

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Quoting Qazulight:


Near my place

Nice digs!

Cheers
Qazulight


Thank you. Link to the webcam (with christmasmarket in front of our thousand-year-old cathedral). It's getting dark now, lights will be on soon.


Another camview right now (from the banks of Rhine river) to the center of Mainz. Link to the cams.
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Quoting pottery:
Post 323.

That's a Grim situation there.
I have been noticing changes in forest vegetation here as well.
Particularly with trees flowering and fruiting out-of-season, due to rainfall changes, temp anomalies, and the like.

Trees make fruit (seeds) at particular times to coincide with optimum conditions for seed dispersal, germination and seedling growth.

When seeds are dispersed/sown at the 'wrong' time, they do not germinate or grow.

The forest will not be sustained if this is the situation.

this fall things were so upset in atlanta area that we had dogwoods hosting fat red berries and also blooming white flowers (bracts), at the same time. that's both spring and fall behavior on the same tree.
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Here in Southeast Texas it is getting dry again. The lake levels are falling and I am having to water to get my clover and blue bonnets to take. No water now, and the deer that hang out in town will start starving when the bumper acorn crop runs out.

If I can get the clover growing I will have a small herd grazing in my back yard through late winter and early spring.

Cheers
Qazulight
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Quoting AussieStorm:

So why haven't I be banned?????????
If it wasn't allowed.
How do you know so many have me on ignore? How do you know, you hack there accounts, now that is illegal and unethical. What makes you think I actually care people have me on ignore. I have 170 handles on ignore so I probably have them on ignore already. Oh and don't call me Mate, you are no mate of mine.


Nea is right. Copyright infringement is a big problem here... maybe not there, I don't know. But it is a real risk for a website to repost entire articles even if there IS credit and link given.

Aussie, your attitude is consistently obnoxious and confrontative.... perhaps in a manner that is customary for YOUR region, but not so much for others, perhaps. I am putting you on ignore myself. You post some interesting information at times ... but, you know, who needs the incivility?
Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 441


Near my place

Nice digs!

Cheers
Qazulight
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Quoting pcola57:
Bopha just won't go away.. :(

Bopha is like Parma don`t want to leave the Philippines until it last breath.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I think the relative lack of hurricanes striking the United States coast is mostly attributable to global warming, as the melting of arctic sea ice has become quite expansive over the last few summers. As I said before, this is an untested hypothesis, but at least I have the balls to admit when I have no evidence.


True, but your untested hypothesis actually has some basis in scientific results, such as this. Changing weather patterns affecting cyclogenesis and paths at the very least makes plausible sense.
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Quoting barbamz:

Hi pcola. Very bright day indeed with some snow still left (see webcam above). Tomorrow morning maybe a little more but then rain and melting :-(


I'm envyious you know..
Beautiful country..
I miss snow..
You enjoy yourself.. :)

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6879
Quoting pcola57:


Hello back to you barbamz..how's the snow?..been enjoying it?

Hi pcola. Very bright day indeed with some snow still left (see webcam above). Tomorrow morning maybe a little more but then rain and melting :-(
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Quoting barbamz:

Bopha on Luzon
Source
And hi to all from sunny Germany.


Hello back to you barbamz..how's the snow?..been enjoying it?
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6879
Happy Hanukkah to those of you who celebrate it starting today.


"


Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259

Bopha on Luzon
Source
And hi to all from sunny Germany.


Near my place.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bopha just won't go away.. :(

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6879
Good Morning All..

My WU weather..

Webcam from my area..







1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6879
Goodnight all. If anyone is interested, Bopha's outer rain bands are now showing on the Baguio Radar
To view the Radar just unselect the MSAT in the overview menu, unselect the PAGASA Cyclone Update in the Weather Outlook menu and Select Baguio Station in the Doppler menu.

Once again, Good night.
Stay well, Stay safe.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting nymore:
Aussie I hope you keep posting the updates, I like what your doing.

BTW Do not let that arrogant fraud from Naples tell you what to do.

It's not minority rules here so of course I will continue to post updates. Any news I see, I will post.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting LargoFl:
wow the 7-day has Changed next week..maybe some Rain??


Pretty pathetic lows though. Not much of a cold front.
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National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council Update Sitrep No. 19 re: Effects of Typhoon "PABLO" (BOPHA) Report

5,398,498 people effected by Pablo/Bopha
464 Dead
465 Injured
702 Missing

19,964 houses were partially damaged
24,801 houses were totally damaged/destroyed.
Eight bridges and nine roads are not passable.
Fifteen municipalities and cities experiencing power interruption.
Six areas are experiencing interruption in water supply.
A total of PHP 5,980,118,696.02(US$145,998,995.17) cost of damages: PHP 2,464,581,800.00(US$60,170,455.57) damages in infrastructure, PHP 3,497,148,403.02(US$85,379,601.77) in agriculture.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
347. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #21
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
5:00 PM PhST December 8 2012
==============================

Typhoon "PABLO" has maintained its strength and is now threatening the Ilocos provinces and La Union area

At 4:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [972 hPa] located at 17.5°N 118.3°E or 230 km west of Sinait, Ilocos Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots gusting up to 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast 9 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Luzon Region
--------------
1. Ilocos Norte
2. Ilocos Sur
3. La Union

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon region
-------------
1. Cagayan
2. Calayan grp. of Is.
3. Babuyan grp. of Is.
4. Batanes grp. of Is.
5. Abra
6. Apayao
7. Kalinga
8. Mt. Province
9. Benguet
10. Pangasinan
11. Zambales


Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern Luzon and the western seaboards of central and southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46147
Quoting percylives:


Post #296.

I like it!! I'd love to see this kind of thing done in the US. The carbon tax/dividend would bring the regular consumer into the loop.

To see US progress, if you want to call it that, on the idea go the Carbon Tax Center site.



I just hope that if it is proposed it should be voted on, unlike here, where the govt denied there would be a carbon tax before an election, even went on record to say there wouldn't be. Then announced there would be one afterwards, all because they had to jump into be with the Greens Party in order to gain power.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
345. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #103
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
21:00 PM JST December 8 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (965 hPa) located at 17.9N 118.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.0N 120.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 16.7N 120.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 14.4N 119.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46147
344. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONE TROPICAL CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
16:30 PM RET December 8 2012
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Claudia (953 hPa) located at 14.5S 74.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
25 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 15.5S 74.2E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 17.7S 73.9E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical
72 HRS: 21.4S 73.1E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================
Shortly after 0600 AM UTC, Claudia has continued to intensify then DT has stabilized around 5.5. After 0930 AM UTC, Dvorak signature has degraded. From 1100 AM UTC, DT has again improved and has reached 6.5 just at 1200 PM UTC. 6 hours average DT is 5.5-. Current intensity is fixed at 85 knots just below the intense tropical cyclone stage that should be achieved so imminent.

The system keep a slowly west southwestward track as steering mid-tropospheric flow remains weak. In this context, Claudia should continue on this drift today. Except ARPEGE, numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement on this track within the next 12 hours. Sunday, the mid level ridge existing east of the system is expected to strengthen, producing a northerly steering flow. Therefore Claudia should track southward.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until Sunday night into Monday. Latest objective numerical guidance (ALADIN 0:00 AM UTC and STIPS 06:00 AM UTC) suggest a maximum intensity in the range of 90-100 knots within Sunday or Sunday night.

On and after Monday, system is expected to keep on tracking southward by getting around mid-level high pressures and so to evolve over marginal heat oceanic content associated with stronger vertical northerly wind shear. A weakening trend might start by that time. From Tuesday night or Wednesday, system should curve southeastward and start its extra-tropical process with winds that could remain strong.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46147
Quoting AussieStorm:
Here is our Carbon Tax works.


From abc.net.au


Post #296.

I like it!! I'd love to see this kind of thing done in the US. The carbon tax/dividend would bring the regular consumer into the loop.

To see US progress, if you want to call it that, on the idea go the Carbon Tax Center site.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


stormchaser4850 Johnny Kelly
Snow coverage at 18.3% across the lower 48 states this morning, expected to expand further over next few days pic.twitter.com/I2Cb2jtO
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting yonzabam:


Freezing rain and black ice here. Fell in a car park yesterday. Worst fall I've had since I dropped out of a tree when I was a kid.

Usually, you wobble before you fall so you know what's coming. Not this time. I just went down like a sack of coal, with no warning.

Wrenched my hip and banged my elbow, but they're okay today. Luckily, my head didn't hit the ground, but I think my brain got a jolt, because I was dizzy when I stood up and had to sit back down again. Thought I was going to faint. That dizzy feeling took all day to wear off.

At 59, I don't bounce as good as I used to.

Damn!!! Glad your alright. If I fall, it would take me an hour to get back up, with my bad back and left hip.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting AussieStorm:

We had a few showers earlier this week but since then it's just been hot and humid. 88% humidity right now at 11:30pm.


Freezing rain and black ice here. Fell in a car park yesterday. Worst fall I've had since I dropped out of a tree when I was a kid.

Usually, you wobble before you fall so you know what's coming. Not this time. I just went down like a sack of coal, with no warning.

Wrenched my hip and banged my elbow, but they're okay today. Luckily, my head didn't hit the ground, but I think my brain got a jolt, because I was dizzy when I stood up and had to sit back down again. Thought I was going to faint. That dizzy feeling took all day to wear off.

At 59, I don't bounce as good as I used to.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I think the relative lack of hurricanes striking the United States coast is mostly attributable to global warming, as the melting of arctic sea ice has become quite expansive over the last few summers. As I said before, this is an untested hypothesis, but at least I have the balls to admit when I have no evidence.


I can't remember which post it was specifically on, but within the last couple of weeks I replied to you and suggesting some ways you might look at this topic in a scientific way to actually test the hypothesis. :)
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Accuweather is going for a cold Christmas in S FL they say in WPB that it going to be 71 high and 43 low!!:)
for the last 4 years it has been in the 80's!!
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Quoting AussieStorm:

We had a few showers earlier this week but since then it's just been hot and humid. 88% humidity right now at 11:30pm.


Evening Aussie. Good morning all. It's a humid and warm one here.

Fair
64°F
18°C
Humidity100%
Wind SpeedSE 5 mph
Barometer29.91 in
Dewpoint64°F (18°C)
Visibility10.00 mi


SHORT TERM...PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RANGE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
I DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS MY
GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUD COVER CONSIDERATIONS AND ONSHORE FLOW OFF OF
RELATIVELY COOLER GULF WATERS. THE LARGEST DEPARTURES FROM CLIMO
WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS HAS BEEN THE TREND WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASING. THOSE TEMPS COULD BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND COULD SET RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT HELD OFF DUE TO INCREASING WIND AND
INSULATING CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...THE GFS IS FASTER ON THE UPCOMING FRONTAL PASSAGE
THAN THE NAM AND WAS USED IN THIS FORECAST. THERE IS REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE EURO ON TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH
THE GFS TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER. ANOTHER DEEP AND BROAD TROF WILL
DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK,
BRINGING A PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS SHOULD BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER A DRY AND COOL WEEK.
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336. yoboi
Quoting pottery:


Getting nice gentle showers all the time now.
Very nice sunshine in between.

All is good !



what time is it there?
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Quoting yoboi:


dont let nea get to ya.....he is just mad because i found where he get's his talking points...he is having a bad morn...

LOL, he ain't getting to me. He's just acting like a 5th grader.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting pottery:


Getting nice gentle showers all the time now.
Very nice sunshine in between.

All is good !

We had a few showers earlier this week but since then it's just been hot and humid. 88% humidity right now at 11:30pm.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting percylives:
Ticking Arctic Carbon Bomb May Be Bigger Than Thought

From the AGU meeting. Written by Eli Kintisch for Science Now.

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA—Scientists are expressing fresh concerns about the carbon locked in the Arctic's vast expanse of frozen soil. New field studies, presented here this week at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union, quantify the amount of soil carbon at 1.9 trillion metric tons, suggesting that previous estimates underestimated the climate risk if this carbon is liberated. Meanwhile, a new analysis of laboratory experiments that simulate carbon release by thawed soil is bolstering worries that continued carbon emissions could unleash a massive Arctic carbon wallop.

Disappearing Arctic ice, which gets most of the attention from climate scientists, is an effect of humanmade climate change. By contrast, the melting of frozen soil, or permafrost, can drive warming. As it thaws, microbes devour carbon previously locked inside, unleashing carbon dioxide—a potent greenhouse gas—in the process. The carbon dioxide amplifies the warming power of carbon pollution in a vicious feedback loop.
....

Those logistical constraints have largely limited researchers' previous estimates of carbon to the top meter of permafrost. But scientists think that carbon down to a depth of 3 meters is susceptible to thawing and release as well. An influential 2009 estimate that Arctic permafrost held 1.6 trillion metric tons of carbon included only 45 field sites analyzed down to that depth. In the new study, Hugelius added 405 new analyses of field sites that went to 3 meters, some through new field work he and colleagues performed, some from archived data. Adding up the carbon found in different soil types he says, yields an initial new estimate of 1894 billion metric tons of carbon locked into permafrost across the Arctic, 13% more than the previous estimate.

After better quantifying the size of stored Arctic carbon, the next question for researchers is how much permafrost will thaw as the planet warms. A modeling study published earlier this year suggested that if global emissions trends stay constant, by 2100 permafrost holding 436 gigatons of carbon could thaw. But determining the size of the permafrost threat also requires calculating how much of the carbon in thawed permafrost will be decomposed by microbes and released as CO2. In a presentation at the meeting, soil biogeochemist Christina Schaedel of the University of Florida in Gainesville discussed that question. She analyzed nine previous studies in which researchers took samples of thawed permafrost to discover how much carbon would be released. In those studies, researchers incubated the soil in bottles at constant temperatures in their laboratories for a year or more. Over 50 years, she concludes, thawed permafrost could release 20% of its available carbon, a figure she called "a conservative estimate."

That could amount to a carbon pulse larger than 2 years' worth of global humanmade emissions.
In terms of global climate change, the new studies show that "the actual situation is worse" than policymakers realize, says Peter Griffith, an ecosystems ecologist with NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The result could be an acceleration of impacts from humanmade greenhouse gas pollution: sea level rise, more intense droughts, and ocean acidification. "What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic," he says.

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In terms of Arctic studies, "ice gets all the love," Griffith says. "That's because we have a very robust [satellite] capability for remotely sensing ice." To understand the threat hidden within permafrost, it's time for more scientists to get their boots dirty.


If that's the potential magnitude of the positive feedback from melting permafrost, it's absolutely trivial. She says it's a 'conservative estimate', but it would still be trivial.

Warming oceans becoming less efficient sinks for CO2 is probably of far greater importance. During the record El Nino of 1998, when global SSTs reached a record high, atmospheric CO2 rose by 3 ppm, a very large increase on the annual average.

This was equivalent to all the man made CO2 for that year remaining in the atmosphere. However, there was also rampant wildfires throughout Indonesia that year, which added a significant amount.

Nevertheless, 1998 shows us that we are not far from the point when the ocean not only has no net uptake of man made CO2, but will become a net emitter of CO2.

I doubt if the models factor this in, so it'll be hotter than they think.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Mate!
You know me, It take a lot to ruffle my feathers.

How are ya mate, had any rain lately?


Getting nice gentle showers all the time now.
Very nice sunshine in between.

All is good !
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.