Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history
The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.
November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.
Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Most extreme January - November period on record
The year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.
Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.
Jeff Masters
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Here in the heart of the Texas Hill Country, this little community is revelling in "Johnny Football" Manziel's Heisman Trophy award. My wife went absolutley bonkers. That's understandable since she retired as a Director of Career Services for Texas A&M and as the child of an Aggie Alumni, she has memories of watching John David Crow (the last Aggie Heisman winner) play football.
Oh yeah, the weather here in Kerrville. After the Heisman ceremony, I was out on the deck, in my shirtsleeves lighting off the BBQ. For the past month or more we've had daily high temps ranging from 8-12 degrees above normal and nary a trace of rain. The cold front tommorrow may bring us our first frost of the season, about 3-4 weeks later than normal.
Doesn't address it but some of that extra heat seemed to gather about that hot spot in the NE.
Wxgeek~ Judging by the SST anomaly no time soon..
That is from the Gulf Stream. Check out the Monthy Ocean Briefing.
AtHome, you're welcome!
Knew you'd enjoy Paul's virtuoso playing...
Quite an astounding talent, check out his versions of "Fly Me to the Moon", and on the other end of the spectrum, "While My Guitar Gently Weeps" (in his Beatles cover band, Yellow Matter Custard).
Okay, guess I better refrain from further off-topic guitar chat, unless weather is involved... Hmmmm, come to think of it - Hurricane Edith was passing across Louisiana on 9-16-71 while we were rocking the night away at the Warehouse in NOLA with the Allman Bros, Duane's last performance there... Yes he was, playing up a storm in a storm!
Skye, I think you mean albedo. :)
Just looking after getting in from work....Cat3 to depression in 12 hours?! Wasn't expecting that..
Well when it comes to a conspiracy theorist, or someone with an agenda, it doesn't necessarily mean he/she doesn't understand thermodynamics, its that they don't want to think about it.
Joe Bastardi is just one example. Obviously as a meteorologist, he would know basic principle of the green house effect and that adding massive amounts of CO2 is a problem. Yet he claims otherwise. It's not that he doesn't know, he doesn't want to think about it. Human beings are masters of self deception.
Of course, the dominant theory involved in biology today has some portion of conflict with the second law of thermodynamics. Yet many seem to act as if they don't know that, either.
Are u on the other side of the ATL again? u seem pretty wide awake for 1 a.m.....
Yes it is
I was was on the other side of the pond for a few weeks so my hours are messed up. Usually the night shift has some interesting subjects but tonight it is really slow. I know you people are out there.
I know it's too early
I was very surprised too
On a more serious note,as part of the "wild weather" talk I saw earlier, I gotta say we got some seriously abnormal rain on Thursday. It barely rains here in December, and usually what little we get in in the form of relatively light, fastmoving showers associated with cold fronts passing through. That surface trough that went through here brought almost 12 hours of rain, torrential for about 3 hours on Thurday evening. Driving was a mess, and the effect was worsened because it's such an unusual event to have here. It seems to me [ haven't checked any stats, so this is mere observation] that we've probably had a near-average to below average year for the first time in about a decade. However, the weird thing all year has been the abnormal rain patterns.
Think I better get into bed....
Winter Season/DOOM 12 days left
Christmas 16 days left
New Years' 22 days left
My B-day 8 days left
nite then... I'll be here for the next hours keeping the blog running
you for got the end of the earth on the 21st
winter season/DOOM
Its doom...I wrote it on there
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONE TROPICAL CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
10:30 AM RET December 9 2012
======================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Claudia (959 hPa) located at 15.1S 74.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 3 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/W1.0/12 HRS
Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center
Storm Force Winds
=================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 55 NM in the southwestern quadrant
Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant
Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the southwestern quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 17.0S 74.0E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 20.3S 73.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.7S 73.9E - Depression Extratropicale
Additional Information
=====================
The eye pattern has fluctuated over the past 6 hours with an more or less well defines eye. At 0600 AM UTC, T number averaged over 6h and 3h are respectly At 4.8 and 4.6. That is the basis for the present intensity estimate.
The system has moved slowly southwestward over the past 6 hours as the mid level ridge existing east of the system is strengthening, producing a northerly steering flow.The motion is still slow right now but is expected to gradually fasten within the next days.
General forecast didn't change since the last issue. On the forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being rather favorable during the next 24 hours. On and after monday afternoon, system should evolve over marginal heat oceanic content associated with stronger vertical northwesterly wind shear ahead an upper troposheric trough. From tuesday night, system should curve southeastward and start its extra-tropical process with winds that should remain strong before easing at the end of the forecast period.
___________________________
Extreme cold expected in North Dakota, specially along the Canadian border
Strong winds from the low pressure system responsible for the
snowfall is generating wind gusting up to 35-40 mph these
combined with cold temperatures in the 20s is making the
feel of temperatures way below zero...from -20 to -40F.
click pic for larger view
Hades, where do you get these bulletins on Claudia? JTWC only posts every 12 hours!
Good evening if you are around Aussie!
a buch of posts deleted...
what the heck??
I'm up. Actually, I haven't gone to sleep yet after my 4 pm nap. It's just below freezing here in Waterloo, Ontario. We're under a freezing rain warning from that Minnesota storm. Actually, we are expected to get an inch of snowfall today (!!!). However, it looks like a near absence of snow afterwards, although GFS and The Weather Network may be saying different things here. Our most significant snowfall so far this season both here and where I usually live in Southern central Ontario has been five inches in 3 hours, which fell in late November. This is equivalent to the maximum 24-h snowfall I observed all last winter!! I'd rarely seen a winter here without at least one storm with over 8 inches of snow. Most of it comes in the form of snowsqualls from the Great Lakes, and Colorado Lows, which seem rarer and rarer these days.
Contrary to last year, I think we will have a slightly colder than normal but snowier than normal winter in the Great Lakes and Northeast region, though I could just be wishcasting. Residual heat in the lakes might keep them unfrozen longer, allowing even more lake-effect snows. Our pattern so far has been:
Upside-down winter, cold in US deep south, near-record dry over Great Lakes, 4C warmer than normal in Canada (2009-10, El Nino Modoki)
Cool winter, early Greenland block, Nunavut 30C warmer than normal around New Year, biggest Arctic ozone hole ever (2010-11, La Nina)
Borderline winter, nor'easter in October and April but none in mid-season, incredibly snowless in Great Lakes (2011-12, La Nina)
2012-13 (ENSO neutral): abundant snow in the Great Lakes region (???)
Summary
First significant bout of winter weather expected.
Details
A low pressure system originating in Colorado will head towards the Lower Great Lakes today. Periods of snow will begin in the southwest later this morning reaching Niagara and the Greater Toronto area (gta) to Georgian Bay later this afternoon. A coating of a centimetre or two of snow is likely from Southern Lake Huron eastwards into the gta by early this evening before it transitions into freezing rain this evening followed by rain. More significant snow is likely farther north towards Georgian Bay and across Eastern Ontario beginning this evening where 5 to locally 10 cm is likely. It is highly expected to change to freezing rain overnight and persist well into Monday. A few millimetres of freezing rain may glaze some areas across the warned regions. Motorists are urged to exercise caution during this first widespread wintery mix of precipitation. Untreated roads and sidewalks may become slippery from an accumulation of snow and freezing rain. There is a slight risk that regions along the Ottawa Valley including Ottawa may exceed 10 to 15 centimetres of snow with snowfall warning criteria being breached. Environment Canada is monitoring the development of this weather system closely and will upgrade the freezing rain warning to a winter storm warning if the snow becomes more significant.
Source: Environment Canada
Thanks, I'd been looking for a comprehensive summary like that!!
Here is a idea don't make false and easily debunked statements and you won't have to worry about it.
Now don't be so defensive you are beginning to sound like little Anthony Watts.
All the best to you and yours on this holiday season. Old friend
Just remember the 1st. Amendment doesn't apply here!
Hey Mate, I'm here, Just celebrated my daughters 7th Birthday today, also watch the Pacman v Marquez fight. It's the only thing that can take the tragedy of Pablo/Bopha off the front pages of the Filipino news websites. But I did find a few things.
Typhoon survivors search for loved ones
by Ron Gagalac, ABS-CBN News
Video
COMPOSTELA VALLEY, Philippines - More than just coping with hunger and being homeless, the unending search for missing loved ones is taking its toll on those who survived Typhoon Pablo in Compostela Valley.
People converge towards every vehicle that makes a stop, hoping to get food.
Truckloads of relief goods are being sent to Compostela Valley, but this is not enough to feed more than 80 percent of the provinces' population affected by the typhoon.
There were politicians who brought relief to thousands of evacuee with food wrapped in a package with their names and faces on it.
But more than the hunger, some are just too busy looking for still missing loved ones.
Overseas worker Elisa Paglingkod went back to the Philippines from Dubai to look for her missing husband and 4 children.
Freddie Reston found the remains of his brother but other members of his family are still missing.
Bodies that will be left unclaimed will be buried in a mass grave.
Since it has been 5 days since Pablo struck and more dead bodies have yet to be recovered, the stench of decaying bodies has become unbearable.
Aside from food and water, clothes and blankets are also needed especially for children who are spending nights on the cold floors of evacuation centers. - ANC
Why thank you. I can not tell you what that means to me coming from a man of your caliber. It is always nice to be recognized for an accomplishment. Some credit has to go to you though as it has been your posts and videos that have taught me the most here, or maybe it was Levi32. Either way I am sure you have taught me a lot.
What is the 1st Amendment?
_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________
Mining, logging contributed to PH disaster: experts
by Mynardo Macaraig, Agence France Presse
MANILA - Unchecked illegal gold mining and decades of indiscriminate logging contributed to the high death toll in the Philippines' worst natural disaster this year, officials and experts say.
Whole towns were washed away or buried by landslides when Typhoon Botha smashed into a mountainous region on the southern island of Mindanao last week, leaving 548 people confirmed dead and 827 missing.
Poverty, greed and the lure of the precious metal have long drawn thousands of prospectors to the region.
"Mining and logging may have had an effect," said civil defense chief Benito Ramos.
"The mountains have been denuded for decades, and filled with holes by our countrymen who are small-time miners. It pains me to say this, but these are the facts," he said.
The worst-hit southern town of New Bataan is both a centre of the devastated banana industry and host to some of the thousands of illegal gold-mining operations in the Mindanao province of Compostela Valley.
Geologists say the mountainous area is mostly unsafe for habitation. But numerous small, illegal or poorly regulated gold mines dot its slopes and the local government says they provide 40 percent of the province's economic output.
Much of the forest cover was also cut down long ago to make way for row upon row of bananas to supply the major markets of China, Iran and Japan.
The plantations and hopes of striking it rich have drawn hundreds of thousands of poor migrants in search of work. They settle in mountain hamlets around which poisonous mercury, used to extract gold from rock, is routinely dumped into rivers.
The deluge wrought by the strongest cyclone to hit the country this year came despite days of preparations and advance warnings including an early evacuation of vulnerable areas.
Governor Arthur Uy said 75,000 people, or one in five in the province, rely on the mines and regulation is a sore point.
The environment ministry insists it is the local officials like Uy who are required by law to issue small-scale mining permits and who must ensure people do not settle areas considered prone to landslides and flash floods.
But Uy protested that the ministry's "geohazard maps" show that 80 percent of the entire province is a danger zone.
"What shall we do? Should we all move from Compostela Valley?" he said.
Uy also said miners had resisted efforts to relocate them, preferring the danger to poverty.
"It is the risk they are willing to take, just to strike it rich. They don't want to move," he said.
Larry Heradez, a technical officer for the Philippine government's mining regulator, said people in New Bataan and nearby gold-rush areas may have known about the danger but sought refuge in the wrong areas.
"There is a problem of information dissemination. The local officials also thought they are evacuating to an area which was safe," he told AFP.
Rescuers said government shelters were among buildings swept by the floods.
In any case, all the elements of a disaster in the making were already there long before geohazard maps came into fashion, said University of the Philippines geology professor Sandra Catana.
"They (have been) living in these areas before technology came about including the awareness of geohazards in this country which started only in 1990s," she told AFP.
With Mindanao usually spared by the 20 or so storms that lash the Philippines every year, people may have become complacent and were caught unprepared by the typhoon which struck further south than usual, officials said.
But the head of a government flood control program, Mahar Lagmay, warned that weather patterns were changing.
"Previously we have had tracks in the last several decades where (storms) were moving more to the north. Now, they say, it is moving towards the south," he said.
Some 1,200 people were killed when tropical storm Washi struck Mindanao's north coast in December last year, but Uy conceded that residents of his southern region never expected a killer storm like Bopha.
"This was the first time this happened to us, we did prepare... but we never felt anything this strong. We were taken by surprise. That is one of the reasons there were so many casualties," he said.
Many of bloggers think the 1st. Amendment of the United States Constitution is out dated!
Aussie, it's good reading, you should try it!
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