Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on December 07, 2012

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The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.

November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Most extreme January - November period on record
The year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hydrus:
A highly amplified weather pattern usually brings a wide variety of weather to North America, including severe weather caused by strong surface cyclogenesis, return flow and a strong jetstream. It also sends Canadian and Polar air masses into the deep south right after severe weather episodes. The models are not yet showing ideal conditions for this to happen yet, but they are getting close to the mark. This sorta shows how the severe weather brought on, but I believe it will have more of a N.E to S.W configuration as the newer runs come out.


It looks like we will finally see some rain around here next week, it has been horrendously dry since mid October. This stubborn ridge should finally break down, allowing upper low to bring instability over the are combining with deeper moisture, setting for a at least a few days with a good shot at rain,

What a weird year, the first 5 months of the year were terribly dry, then it was like someone switched on the fire hose, and most of Central Florida received widespread rainfall of 40 to 50 inches from June into early October, since then we haven't even had an inch, it hasn't rained here measurably in over 2 weeks!
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Quoting JupiterKen:
Wow!
Link

wow. dismissive and inaccurate. and no comments critical to the argument.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
'Limits to Growth' Author Dennis Meadows 'Humanity Is Still on the Way to Destroying Itself'

In 1972, environmental guru Dennis Meadows predicted in his seminal study "The Limits to Growth" that the world was heading toward an economic collapse. Forty years on, he tells SPIEGEL ONLINE that nothing he has seen since has made him change his mind.

Whole interview on Spiegel English

And with that a good night and a nice Sunday! Barb
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Vertical wind shear continues to run well below average across the eastern Atlantic.


Which means that the Tropical North Atlantic will stay warmer than average. Cape Verde season next year might be bad. :/
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Wow!
Link
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Rising Sea Levels and Less Rain Better Science to Hone Climate Change Warnings

By Olaf Stampf

The next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts won't be released until late 2013. But insiders say that thanks to faster computers and better models, the report will offer more precise predictions and adjust anticipated changes in sea levels and precipitation.

Read more on Spiegel English
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Quoting wxmod:


Pottery,
Like I said before, we have the ability to alter the climate of the WHOLE PLANET for just 5 billion dollars a year. Altering a single storm is child's play. Don't take my word for it. Go to your news page, type in 'David Keith geoengineering' and read the ABC news interview with him.

since you know where it is, you could always post a link.
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475. Skyepony (Mod)
Huge Tornado in Indonesia traipsed 10 villages.

More than a dozen people have been injured and hundreds of houses left damaged after a tornado swept through the Yogyakarta district of Sleman on Friday. The National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) spokesman said on Saturday that the tornado - which had a radius of two kilometers at a speed of 60 kilometers per hour - lasted for 10 minutes and hit 10 villages in Sleman, with the Bromonila village in the subdistrict of Purwomartani reporting the most damages. "Two people were seriously injured and have to undergo treatment now, and 12 others were lightly wounded," BNPB spokesman Sutopo Purwo said in a statement published at bnpb.go.id. Sutopo said 519 houses in total were damaged and dozens of cattle sheds and hundreds of trees also reportedly collapsed. The district head of Sleman has declared the area an emergency situation until Dec. 11. "The Sleman office of the BPNB has established an emergency station and a makeshift kitchen in Bromonila village," said Sutopo, adding that people displaced from their houses had been evacuated to safe places. The tornado also disrupted some flights to and from the Adisucipto International Airport in Yogyakarta. A Merpati Airlines plane from Bandung was forced to reroute to Surabaya and a Garuda Indonesia flight from Jakarta was forced to turn back.
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Tropical Cyclone Claudia over South Indian Ocean:

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473. Skyepony (Mod)
Flash Flooding from Bopha was on going, some villages not flooded & lost til 3 days after Bopha left.

About 200 families of Montawal town in Maguindanao province and some 100 hectares of rice and corn farms in this province were devastated as flashfloods coming from the province of Bukidnon and Cagayan de Oro City overflowed Pulangi River, three days after typhoon Pablo (International name: Bopha) left Mindanao. In Kabacan town, 12 villages along Pulangi River and surrounding villages of Liguasan Marsh were flooded forcing some 1,730 residents to flee their homes. North Cotabato Governor Emmylou Talino-Mendoza said that villages situated along the Pulangi River in Kabacan, Pikit and Pigcawayan towns were inundated, as floodwaters entered their houses forcing residents to evacuate to the national highway and village halls. "When flashfloods hit Cagayan de Oro and Bukidnon, it usually overflows Pulangi River," Talino-Mendoza said, adding that the towns are amongst the low-lying areas of the province. From Bukidnon province, Pulangi River passes through Carmen and Kabacan towns and drains into the Liguasan Marsh. Montawal is part of the catchment basin of the Liguasan Marsh. abacan's Social Welfare and Development officer Susan Macalipat reported that affected with floodwaters are homes, school buildings and rice fields. Severely affected villages of Kabacan are Tamped, Semone, Kayaga, Kilagasan, Magatos, Lower Paatan, Cuyapon, Aringay, Simbuhay, Nangaan, Dalapuan and Salipungan - all are either located along Pulangi River or near the Liguasan Marsh. "Pulangi River overflowed; floodwaters entered schools, residences and submerged the ricefields," Macalipat said. The municipal agriculture is due to release its report on crops damages. Kabacan is a pre-dominantly rice field town.
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Claudia is now an intense tropical cyclones with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. However, the cloud tops are not as cool and the eye is not as warm as it was earlier this morning.

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No doubt the ClyS will work but the patent is still in the approval stage as of October and until that is resolved won't go into widespread use yet.
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Quoting RJT185:


what in particular, if I may ask, I'm a little rusty on reading these maps.
A highly amplified weather pattern usually brings a wide variety of weather to North America, including severe weather caused by strong surface cyclogenesis, return flow and a strong jetstream. It also sends Canadian and Polar air masses into the deep south right after severe weather episodes. The models are not yet showing ideal conditions for this to happen yet, but they are getting close to the mark. This sorta shows how the severe weather brought on, but I believe it will have more of a N.E to S.W configuration as the newer runs come out.
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469. Skyepony (Mod)
China continues to get the snow..

Coastal areas in east China's Shandong Province are expected to be battered by a blizzard and gales over the weekend, local meteorological authorities said on Friday afternoon. The meteorological observatories of the cities of Yantai and Weihai issued orange alerts, the second most serious level of warning, for blizzards, and yellow alerts for strong winds. China has a four-color-coded warning system for extreme weather, with red being the most serious, followed by orange, yellow and blue. Temperatures will continue to drop and some inland regions may see the minimum temperature of minus nine degrees Celsius, according to the local meteorological department. Passenger ships departing from the port city of Yantai for Dalian in northeast China's Liaoning Province have been suspended as of 6 p.m. on Friday and services are expected to resume on Sunday, according to the Yantai Maritime Affairs Administration.
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468. txjac
Quoting bappit:
Ohmygod looks like an ice age!



Looks pretty good to me as I sit here with my AC running!
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Does the data include Alaska?

Alaska isn't included in the maps. It is just the lower-48.

November 2012 Divisional ranks for anybody that cares:



My area had the farthest departure from normal compared to anywhere across the United States. We averaged 6C below average.
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466. Skyepony (Mod)
The GOES-R Series Program, which is leading the effort to replace and upgrade NOAA’s existing fleet of geostationary satellites that track severe weather across the United States, received a favorable appraisal conducted by an external team of aerospace experts of its preparations to launch the new series, beginning in late 2015.
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Ohmygod looks like an ice age!

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"Altering a single storm is child's play."

We can control climate to some extent (if dumping gigatons of CO2 into the air willy nilly year after year constitutes control), but weather is not climate. No, a single storm is not child's play.
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I saw a documentary once hosted by Edwin Newman where people sat around a table carrying on conversations in total silence. Eeriest thing. Is that brain talk?
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January 2012-November 2012
* Warmest month on record for...Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada.

No states expected their coolest month on record in any month during 2012 thus far.


Images courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center.
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460. Skyepony (Mod)
Government of Japan gifts NOAA $5 million to address tsunami marine debris
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Quoting hydrus:
A long way out, but this would be interesting if it did occur..


what in particular, if I may ask, I'm a little rusty on reading these maps.
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Quoting hydrus:
A long way out, but this would be interesting if it did occur..



Hydrus, I want to thank you for publishing the Model maps, I really look forward to seeing them.
Again thanks for taking the time to share them with us.

Trunkmonkey!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 587
8 December 2012 Last updated at 18:27 GMT
Climate talks: UN forum extends Kyoto Protocol to 2020
By Roger Harrabin BBC Environment analyst, Doha
UN climate talks in Doha have closed with a historic shift in principle but few genuine cuts in greenhouse gases.
More to read (BBC)
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A long way out, but this would be interesting if it did occur..
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Quoting wxmod:


Pottery,
Like I said before, we have the ability to alter the climate of the WHOLE PLANET for just 5 billion dollars a year. Altering a single storm is child's play. Don't take my word for it. Go to your news page, type in 'David Keith geoengineering' and read the ABC news interview with him.


Interesting and scary read, that's for sure. But as much as I understood (maybe I'm a little naive) is that it's still research done in laboratories.


DAVID KEITH: ...

The big question right now really is: should we do research in the open atmosphere? Should we go outside of the laboratory and begin to actually tinker with the system and learn more about whether this will work or not. And I'm somebody who advocates that we do do such research.


Source
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Quoting pcola57:
Bopha just won't go away.. :(

Well it seems Bopha is done.

Died rather spectacularly.
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Latest Winter Weather Summary

- To Name Or Not To Name This Winter System

The winter weather system that will affect a portion of the Central U.S. this weekend is a significant winter weather event, but at this point The Weather Channel will NOT be naming this system as a major winter storm for the U.S. This is still a close call, but based on the combination of forecast winter impacts, it falls just below our criteria to name.
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Afternoon all.... feel like I'm doing "drive-through blogging" of late... work is heaped up and it seems every time I take a few things off the pile and stop long enough to drink a coffee, the pile is twice as high when I look again.... lol

I'm disappointed - but not surprised - to read about the death toll in Mindanao. The people there did not really have a full understanding of what to prepare for [or against, really] and Bopha was no child's play. My heart goes out to the relatives of an entire village swept away. How do you get over it when your parents,siblings, extended family, all your childhood friends and neighbours, even the neighbourhood itself, is just - gone?

I gotta get back to work, but if I'm not totally wiped when I get in this evening, I'll check in to see who's around.
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Quoting wxmod:


Pottery,
Like I said before, we have the ability to alter the climate of the WHOLE PLANET for just 5 billion dollars a year. Altering a single storm is child's play. Don't take my word for it. Go to your news page, type in 'David Keith geoengineering' and read the ABC news interview with him.


OK
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WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
_________________________

Northern States Snowstorm...Caesar???



click image for larger view
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448. wxmod
Quoting pottery:


I have read some reports and articles. Seems to me that the efforts are mostly trying to enhance/change local conditions.

Efforts to modify trop. storms and other large systems are pretty vague overall. Not much evidence of anything that cant be disputed.

I have no doubt that there is a strong argument on behalf of weather modification by some sectors. But I cant believe that we have the ability to modify storms like Sandy and Pablo in any way yet.


Pottery,
Like I said before, we have the ability to alter the climate of the WHOLE PLANET for just 5 billion dollars a year. Altering a single storm is child's play. Don't take my word for it. Go to your news page, type in 'David Keith geoengineering' and read the ABC news interview with him.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
With the NAO plummeting and the AO likely to stay negative, residents in the Northeast can expect a big snow event by Christmas. Models are beginning to catch on and I expect to see even more support over the next coming days.





"IM DREAMING OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS....."
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Quoting Grothar:


Hello. Good to be back, I think.
Things are about the same around here on the blog if you havent been reading. I saw pictures of the damage in N.J. and N.Y..It was some of the worst damage I have seen, and I unfortunately have seen plenty. We lost a house in the Dec 1992 Nor,Easter near barnegat, N.J.. My father went through The 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm and as bad as that was, he said that Sandy was worse.
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Quoting Minnemike:
while i could take acrimonious to an extreme degree given what i've read here, i am surprised to find my rants termed 'polite'!
fwiw, this comment follows one i just made on FB to my local PBS station, lambasting them for programming a membership-drive focused on a new age 'brain-talk' seminar, when they normally air 3hrs of cooking shows!!!
i am the stodgiest 32yr old curmudgeon out there.. can't wait til i'm Your age, assuming Sol hasn't swallowed us by that time ;)



that new youngin' of yours will help that some... :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
With the NAO plummeting and the AO likely to stay negative, residents in the Northeast can expect a big snow event by Christmas. Models are beginning to catch on and I expect to see even more support over the next coming days.
Some cool air would be a nice change, given that December has continued the year-long parade of average to abnormally warm temperatures across most of the U.S. including Alaska and Hawaii. Over the first full week of the month, there have been 2,433 daily high, or high minimum, temperature records set or tied, and just 27 daily low, or low maximum, temperature records set or tied, a very lopsided ratio of greater than 90 to 1. Even more amazingly, there have been just five overnight low temperature records broken throughout the U.S. this month--all of those on December 1--and 859 daytime high temperature records broken, a warm/cool ratio of better than 171 to 1.

(FWIW, over the past three weeks, the overall warm record/cool record ratio across the U.S. has been 3,683 to 182, or 20:1.)

hot

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Quoting wxmod:


Pottery
There is evidence all over the place that intentional weather modification is happening. Have you ever done any internet search on the subject? After your search terms, don't forget to type site:gov or site:edu so no conspiracy websites come up. You will find that almost every southwest water company in the USA and every great plains state has a finger in this pie. Don't take my word for it though. SEARCH.

I have read some reports and articles. Seems to me that the efforts are mostly trying to enhance/change local conditions.

Efforts to modify trop. storms and other large systems are pretty vague overall. Not much evidence of anything that cant be disputed.

I have no doubt that there is a strong argument on behalf of weather modification by some sectors. But I cant believe that we have the ability to modify storms like Sandy and Pablo in any way yet.
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Quoting Slamguitar:


Don't forget all the forms of transportation (clean energy or not) that kill countless people each year. I'm going to stop flying just in case I ever crash. Crashing isn't good for my health or the environment. Who cares if it unifies our modern world? That stuff is dangerous!!
It was the anit-smoking ranter that was particularly deranged.I would love to see everyone in the USA quit smoking. The outcome would likely be a doubling of property taxes, as cigarette revenue is the number one revenue raisrer in 48 of the 50 states. The biggest lie is that there would somehow be health savings if that happenned. Actually, the reverse is true. Why?
1. Everyone eventually gets sick and dies.
2. Cigarette smokers die sooner. They dont live to collect as much social security/medicarethan non smokers.
While I respect everyone's right not to have to breath other's smoke...this has gone way t0o far. I just hope that person gets his/her wish and that it puts him out of his home.
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Quoting Grothar:


I was in New York and Long Island for a few days. The destruction is much worse than had originally thought. Incredible damage, especially on the South Shore of Long Island. Actually, I was also very close to you for the remainder of my trip. I was fortunate enough to stop in Greenland for a few days as well. Everyone there is quite concerned about what is happening to the ice sheets and it was the topic of most conversations.

It would appear most of Europe has been experiencing very strange weather for the past few years.


Sorry to hear. And thanks for telling us, Grothar.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
With the NAO plummeting and the AO likely to stay negative, residents in the Northeast can expect a big snow event by Christmas. Models are beginning to catch on and I expect to see even more support over the next coming days.




I've noticed a change the past few days and yes more support should come. I also get some snow out of these set-ups...
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7959
You were missed ol' boy, good to have ya ranting again
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Vertical wind shear continues to run well below average across the eastern Atlantic.

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#423 It all depends. In the Great Plains for instance, temps 30F above average are not that uncommon given how cold outbreaks bring the average down. Similarly cold outbreaks can be way below the average given how warm air pulled up from the south bring the average up.

Looking at Fairbanks climate data, record high temps for December are above 50F for some days.

Easy to distort the truth with some stat given out of context.
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Quoting barbamz:


Sure. We were discussing your whereabouts, Gro, assuming you might assess the damage in Long Island. Hope everything is ok.


I was in New York and Long Island for a few days. The destruction is much worse than had originally thought. Incredible damage, especially on the South Shore of Long Island. Actually, I was also very close to you for the remainder of my trip. I was fortunate enough to stop in Greenland for a few days as well. Everyone there is quite concerned about what is happening to the ice sheets and it was the topic of most conversations.

It would appear most of Europe has been experiencing very strange weather for the past few years.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26897
Quoting Grothar:



I must be old, because I have no idea what "braink-talk" is. I am sure it is nothing I have seen on this blog lately. :)
i can tell you, it's no Jacques Pépin
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Quoting Grothar:


Hello. Good to be back, I think.


Sure. We were discussing your whereabouts, Gro, assuming you might assess the damage in Long Island. Hope everything is ok.
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Quoting hydrus:
Greetings Gro.


Hello. Good to be back, I think.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26897
Quoting Minnemike:
while i could take acrimonious to an extreme degree given what i've read here, i am surprised to find my rants termed 'polite'!
fwiw, this comment follows one i just made on FB to my local PBS station, lambasting them for programming a membership-drive focused on a new age 'brain-talk' seminar, when they normally air 3hrs of cooking shows!!!
i am the stodgiest 32yr old curmudgeon out there.. can't wait til i'm Your age, assuming Sol hasn't swallowed us by that time ;)




I must be old, because I have no idea what "brain-talk" is. I am sure it is nothing I have seen on this blog lately. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26897

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.