Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on December 07, 2012

Share this Blog
44
+

The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.

November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Most extreme January - November period on record
The year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 532 - 482

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22Blog Index

Quoting wxmod:



You have not been reading what I have been posting. I am not a conspiracy theorist. Don't tell me what I understand and what I don't. You have no idea.

You reflect sunlight away from the ground, clouds don't build up. You add white haze to midlevel, that stagnates the air. You add black dust to the atmosphere, that warms air locally. All these techniques use mining waste and are cheap. I see these techniques used all the time in my area, with my own 2 eyes. You probably see them too, but maybe you are part of the wx mod program, so have an interest in derailing the conversation.


And maybe you are delusional. There's a lot of that on the Internet. What's your opinion on the moon landings>
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmod:



You have not been reading what I have been posting. I am not a conspiracy theorist. Don't tell me what I understand and what I don't. You have no idea.

You reflect sunlight away from the ground, clouds don't build up. You add white haze to midlevel, that stagnates the air. You add black dust to the atmosphere, that warms air locally. All these techniques use mining waste and are cheap. I see these techniques used all the time in my area, with my own 2 eyes. You probably see them too, but maybe you are part of the wx mod program, so have an interest in derailing the conversation.

Lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32250
530. wxmod
Quoting Xyrus2000:


wxmod does not understand the the principles of conservation of energy, nor thermodynamics. That's why he/she thinks it is trivially easy to alter weather and climate (which it is not, or we'd be doing it already). Indeed, unless you're conspiracy theory crazy, such techniques would have been used to dissipate or change the course of Sandy, Katrina, or averted any number of weather related disasters.






You have not been reading what I have been posting. I am not a conspiracy theorist. Don't tell me what I understand and what I don't. You have no idea.

You reflect sunlight away from the ground, clouds don't build up. You add white haze to midlevel, that stagnates the air. You add black dust to the atmosphere, that warms air locally. All these techniques use mining waste and are cheap. I see these techniques used all the time in my area, with my own 2 eyes. You probably see them too, but maybe you are part of the wx mod program, so have an interest in derailing the conversation.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1763
529. VR46L
Quoting nymore:


No it is not but what Neo claimed is just a lie. Now what he will try and do is pull out Barrow AK. as it was 1.6F above normal. While everywhere else in AK was below normal, some places by as much as 4.9F


I guess its picking the facts to suit your arguement. I like to get the whole picture but that means checking out alot of information . I mean there are parts of the world that the past two seasons have been down in temperature but the CONUS has been warmer
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
Quoting hydrus:
I will say this, I have watched and studied weather for over 30 years, and lived in Florida for about 40. Never have I seen such drastic changes with the climate there. It is not just Florida either, the old timers here in Middle Tennessee say the winters have become less severe since the 1980,s...Last winter was warmer than the average fall season in these parts.....Strange weather..


Unfortunately it seems like everything has to involve CO2 now...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon/evening. Claudia continues to look impressive in the South Indian:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Be my guest...You better have bulldozer and a chainsaw ready.


It should rain a few times (finally not just one rain event per month) in November, just get your chainsaw, and 30 friends and have a bonfire....
Just use a lot of fluid to dry out the wet wood. :P
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting wxchaser97:

Chilly rain is the best weather event ever :P



Chilly rain is the most pointless weather event ever.....
And in GA a chilly rain is still most likely not even close to a chance of snow.... its just 40F and light rain..
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
524. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting barbamz:


You see, Bopha (the LLC of it!) hasn't made landfall yet though the satellites would suggest otherwise. Weird. If this would be a CONUS system blog would have gone wild, lol.


In 24 hours it has the center overland as a tropical depression.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #23
TROPICAL STORM PABLO (BOPHA)
5:00 AM PhST December 9 2012
==============================

"PABLO" continues to weaken as it moves toward Ilocos Norte.

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Pablo [987 hPa] located at 17.9N 119.7E or 85 km west of Laoag City has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots gusting up to 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 8 knots.

Signal Warnings



You see, Bopha (the LLC of it!) hasn't made landfall yet though the satellites would suggest otherwise. Weird. If this would be a CONUS system blog would have gone wild, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
But I didn't say Alaska hadn't been cool, or that it hadn't been below average, did I? Perhaps you misread due to sloppy wording on my part; my point was--and is--that there's been very little record-shattering cold across the U.S. so far this month, including Alaska. (In fact, in the past three weeks, that state has seen just ten new overnight record lows, an average of less than one every two days. That's hardly a historic outbreak of cold, at least in my book. Debunked, as I like to say.)

And the primary point still stands: over the past two years, the U.S. has experienced far more warmth than cold. In fact, since January 1, 2011, the U.S. has seen about 40,800 record lows, and a whopping 121,400 record highs, a ratio of just under 3:1)


You said average to abnormally warm including Alaska. So I guess you mean average to abnormally warm in Alaska if it is included.

You may have missed this part

Alaska had its 13th coolest January-November since records began in 1918, with a temperature 2.0F (1.1C) below the 1971-2000 average

BTW nice try bringing the contiguous US with records set to try and obfuscate the point being made.
Face it you got caught making up facts. Now lets move along. Old friend

FWIW maybe you would like to edit your post to include the accurate information.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
Quoting goosegirl1:



Is that all???

Let me apologize to everyone who had to endure the sermons on the evils of smoking yesterday. I found a good article, posted a bit with a link, and then.... I don't know how he got on that path based on the article. I did set spark to the powder keg, but I still have no idea how I did it :) There was nothing about smoking in there, I am sure. Anyway, I am sorry to have inadvertently became the catalyst for a breakdown :)))


No problem goosegirl, no need for you to apologize. Said blogger has a history of both offering brilliant contributions and a tendency for going off on irrational rants of intolerance... Nothing that couldn't be alleviated by many readers via temporarily enveloping oneself in a brief low-level haze resulting in therapeutic short-term memory loss of it all...
;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
520. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #106
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
6:00 AM JST December 9 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Bopha (1002 hPa) located at 18.3N 119.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.4N 120.5E - Tropical Depression in South China Sea
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
519. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #23
TROPICAL STORM PABLO (BOPHA)
5:00 AM PhST December 9 2012
==============================

"PABLO" continues to weaken as it moves toward Ilocos Norte.

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Pablo [987 hPa] located at 17.9°N 119.7°E or 85 km west of Laoag City has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots gusting up to 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 8 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Luzon Region
--------------
1. Ilocos Norte
2. Ilocos Sur
3. La Union

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon region
-------------
1. Cagayan
2. Calayan grp. of Is.
3. Babuyan grp. of Is.
4. Batanes grp. of Is.
5. Abra
6. Apayao
7. Kalinga
8. Mt. Province
9. Benguet
10. Pangasinan

Additional Information
========================
Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere is now lowered.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the seaboard of northern Luzon and the western seaboards of central and southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nymore:
Neapolitan -I am not sure what made you say this:

"Some cool air would be a nice change, given that December has continued the year-long parade of average to abnormally warm temperatures across most of the U.S. including Alaska and Hawaii".

I have not checked Hawaii but the Alaska part seems to be false. Debunked as you like to say.

Alaska Temperature and Precipitation:

Alaska had its 26th coolest November since records began in 1918, with a temperature 3.1F (1.7C) below the 1971-2000 average.
Alaska had its 29th coolest September-November since records began in 1918, with a temperature 1.1F (0.6C) below the 1971-2000 average.
Alaska had its 13th coolest January-November since records began in 1918, with a temperature 2.0F (1.1C) below the 1971-2000 average.
Alaska had its 28th driest November since records began in 1918, with an anomaly that was 19.8 percent below the 1971-2000 average.
Alaska had its 25th wettest September-November since records began in 1918, with an anomaly that was 11.6 percent above the 1971-2000 average.
Alaska had its 24th wettest January-November since records began in 1918, with an anomaly that was 13.1 percent above the 1971-2000 average.

Source NOAA November climate report 2012

I believe the temp for Alaska this month is running below average as well
But I didn't say Alaska hadn't been cool, or that it hadn't been below average, did I? Perhaps you misread due to sloppy wording on my part; my point was--and is--that there's been very little record-shattering cold across the U.S. so far this month, including Alaska. (In fact, in the past three weeks, that state has seen just ten new overnight record lows, an average of less than one every two days. That's hardly a historic outbreak of cold, at least in my book. Debunked, as I like to say.)

And the primary point still stands: over the past two years, the U.S. has experienced far more warmth than cold. In fact, since January 1, 2011, the U.S. has seen about 41,000 record lows, and a whopping 121,000 record highs, a ratio of just under 3:1)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JupiterKen:
Wow!
Link


That link is amazing! I thought I had read every piece of uneducated drivel and unscientific nonsense from deniers, but that link takes it to a whole new low. This crap wouldn't even be deemed fit for toilet paper for an editor at a peer-reviewed journal.

Seriously, if you have even the most rudimentary understanding of atmospheric dynamics his first couple of paragraphs should have you rolling on the floor. And it gets worse the further you read.

Of course, then you get to the bottom of the page to check if there are any sited references or credentials. No surprise that there aren't any, and he is a "technical manager". He also labels climate science as "mythology", which pretty much completes the picture of this class act.

But thanks for the link. Now I have yet another link I can use to demonstrate how deniers just make fecal matter up and use it to try and discredit rigorous scientific research.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VR46L:


Funny I posted a link on the state of temperatures for the year..Global.. on the first page of the blog and got virtually crickets . I guess being the ninth warmest since records begun is not the headline grabber that warmest year in the US since records began is.


No it is not but what Neo claimed is just a lie. Now what he will try and do is pull out Barrow AK. as it was 1.6F above normal. While everywhere else in AK was below normal, some places by as much as 4.9F
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
Quoting Xyrus2000:


wxmod does not understand the the principles of conservation of energy, nor thermodynamics. That's why he/she thinks it is trivially easy to alter weather and climate (which it is not, or we'd be doing it already). Indeed, unless you're conspiracy theory crazy, such techniques would have been used to dissipate or change the course of Sandy, Katrina, or averted any number of weather related disasters.





I remember reading that Oppenheimer, the 'father of the atomic bomb', thought that hurricanes might be deflected by atomic bombs.

You'd just get a radioactive hurricane. Even geniuses can be 'a bit unclear' on the subject of weather modificaton.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
514. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
22:30 PM RET December 8 2012
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Claudia (950 hPa) located at 14.6S 74.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 55 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
================
75 NM radius from the center, extending up to 95 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 16.0S 74.2E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 18.7S 73.7E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical
72 HRS: 22.7S 73.0E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================
The system has maintained an eye pattern associated with cold cloud tops during the last 6 hours. The average T-number over 6hrs and 3 hrs gives resp. 5.8 and 5.7. PGTW and SAB give respectly. 6.0 and 5.5. At 17:00 PM UTC, ADT give a 3hrs mean T-number at 5.9. Satcon at 16:00 PM UTC is at 107 knots (1 min winds). All this estimations suggest an intensity in the 95-100 knots range. However, latest available microwave imagery (SSMIS at 1230 PM UTC, 1449 PM UTC and AMSUB at 1628 PM UTC)show that a weakness exists in the eastern and southeastern eyewall (potentially due to the easterly constraints show by the CIMSS shear analysis at 12z). In fact the microwave signature does not suggest such an intensity. The final intensity is therefore assessed at 90 knots.

The system has slow down again on a west southwestward track as steering mid-tropospheric flow remains weak. Tomorrow, the mid level ridge existing east of the system is expected to strengthen, producing a northerly steering flow. Therefore Claudia should track southward at a gradual faster speed.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until Sunday night into monday. Latest available objective numerical guidance (ALADIN 1200 PM UTC and STIPS 1200 PM UTC) show some disagreement. ALADIN-REUNIONnow weakens Claudia tomorrow after a peak in max winds at 95 knots at 1500 PM UTC and 1800 PM UTC (right now). STIPS still suggest a max intensity at 95 knots tomorrow. The present forecast follows STIPS and remains in line with the previous package.

On and after Monday, system is expected to keep on tracking southward by getting around mid-level high pressures and so to evolve over marginal heat oceanic content associated with stronger vertical northerly wind shear. A weakening trend might start by that time. From Tuesday night or Wednesday, system should curve southeastward and start its extra-tropical process with winds that could remain strong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
513. VR46L
Quoting nymore:
Neapolitan -I am not sure what made you say this:

"Some cool air would be a nice change, given that December has continued the year-long parade of average to abnormally warm temperatures across most of the U.S. including Alaska and Hawaii".

I have not checked Hawaii but the Alaska part seems to be false. Debunked as you like to say.

Alaska Temperature and Precipitation:

Alaska had its 26th coolest November since records began in 1918, with a temperature 3.1F (1.7C) below the 1971-2000 average.
Alaska had its 29th coolest September-November since records began in 1918, with a temperature 1.1F (0.6C) below the 1971-2000 average.
Alaska had its 13th coolest January-November since records began in 1918, with a temperature 2.0F (1.1C) below the 1971-2000 average.
Alaska had its 28th driest November since records began in 1918, with an anomaly that was 19.8 percent below the 1971-2000 average.
Alaska had its 25th wettest September-November since records began in 1918, with an anomaly that was 11.6 percent above the 1971-2000 average.
Alaska had its 24th wettest January-November since records began in 1918, with an anomaly that was 13.1 percent above the 1971-2000 average.

Source NOAA November climate report 2012

I believe the temp for Alaska this month is running below average as well


Funny I posted a link on the state of temperatures for the year..Global.. on the first page of the blog and got virtually crickets . I guess being the ninth warmest since records begun is not the headline grabber that warmest year in the US since records began is.
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
Quoting bappit:
"Altering a single storm is child's play."

We can control climate to some extent (if dumping gigatons of CO2 into the air willy nilly year after year constitutes control), but weather is not climate. No, a single storm is not child's play.


wxmod does not understand the the principles of conservation of energy, nor thermodynamics. That's why he/she thinks it is trivially easy to alter weather and climate (which it is not, or we'd be doing it already). Indeed, unless you're conspiracy theory crazy, such techniques would have been used to dissipate or change the course of Sandy, Katrina, or averted any number of weather related disasters.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


No problem, Mike. At least you have been polite in your rants. In the last few days I seen about 14 twits on here, but who's counting.



Is that all???

Let me apologize to everyone who had to endure the sermons on the evils of smoking yesterday. I found a good article, posted a bit with a link, and then.... I don't know how he got on that path based on the article. I did set spark to the powder keg, but I still have no idea how I did it :) There was nothing about smoking in there, I am sure. Anyway, I am sorry to have inadvertently became the catalyst for a breakdown :)))
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
Neapolitan -I am not sure what made you say this:

"Some cool air would be a nice change, given that December has continued the year-long parade of average to abnormally warm temperatures across most of the U.S. including Alaska and Hawaii".

I have not checked Hawaii but the Alaska part seems to be false. Debunked as you like to say.

Alaska Temperature and Precipitation:

Alaska had its 26th coolest November since records began in 1918, with a temperature 3.1F (1.7C) below the 1971-2000 average.
Alaska had its 29th coolest September-November since records began in 1918, with a temperature 1.1F (0.6C) below the 1971-2000 average.
Alaska had its 13th coolest January-November since records began in 1918, with a temperature 2.0F (1.1C) below the 1971-2000 average.
Alaska had its 28th driest November since records began in 1918, with an anomaly that was 19.8 percent below the 1971-2000 average.
Alaska had its 25th wettest September-November since records began in 1918, with an anomaly that was 11.6 percent above the 1971-2000 average.
Alaska had its 24th wettest January-November since records began in 1918, with an anomaly that was 13.1 percent above the 1971-2000 average.

Source NOAA November climate report 2012

I believe the temp for Alaska this month is running below average as well
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A lack of vertical instability causes dry, stable air.
thanks for the clarification.:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Astrometeor:


Did someone say severe weather in TN? Bring. it. on.
All I have seen is some light rain the past few days.



By the way, maybe I should go to hydrus' house and pick up his sticks so he is ready to.

Be my guest...You better have bulldozer and a chainsaw ready.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


One last post, though I already said good night, forgive me. The above loop show IMHO that low level circulation of Bopha had been decoupled from the rest of the typhoon. Hence the variety of predictions; look at the discussion (NAVY):

"B. TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY DUE TO STRONG VWS AND SOME INTERACTION WITH LUZON.
THEREAFTER, AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD FOLLOWING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE
DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR AND GFS, ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72. WBAR AND GFS ARE
CONSIDERED HIGHLY UNREALISTIC SINCE THEY BOTH TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO
A ZONE OF HIGH VWS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND
A STRONG NORTHEAST SURGE. ANALYSIS OF GFS 850MB VORTICITY FIELDS
SHOWS RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WEST OF LUZON AND A QUICK TURN
SOUTHWARD; THE GFS VORTEX TRACKER APPEARS TO BE ERRONEOUSLY JUMPING
THE CENTER EASTWARD TO ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHEAR LINE POSITIONED EAST OF LUZON.
GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
TRACK GUIDANCE AND HIGH TRACK DEPENDENCE ON THE INTENSITY, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 REMAINS LOW.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AND WEAKEN DUE TO ONGOING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOOPING MOTION AND A SPREAD IN ALONG-TRACK FORECAST SPEEDS
AMONG CONSENSUS MODEL MEMBERS. EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW.//

Moreover there is an interesting little blob with some turning behind Bopha. Probably nothing serious?

Source
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I dont want it in TN either, but N GA would be perfect....:)


Did someone say severe weather in TN? Bring. it. on.
All I have seen is some light rain the past few days.

Quoting hydrus:
Suffice it to say, I do NOT want ANY severe weather HERE...We still have piles of huge branches around our property from the last 8 to10 severe weather events laying around.


By the way, maybe I should go to hydrus' house and pick up his sticks so he is ready to.

Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10321
Quoting wxmod:
DAVID KEITH: "In a case of emergency we should do all sorts of wild things, but it's not clear what an emergency is."

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2012/s3639 096.htm

Was Sandy an emergency? Is Bopha an emergency? You decide.


Dude, can't you let tropical cyclones be tropical cyclones? There isn't some elaborate reason for everything.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JupiterKen:
Wow!
Link
"Wow!" indeed. That guy used up an awful lot of space just to say, "I don't understand either climate or science, so I'm just going to throw together a bunch of nonsense, mix in a handful of debunked denialist talking points--there's a warm station bias due to siting issues, it hasn't warmed in 16 years, it's the tides, it's clouds, the Medieval Warm Period was global and long-lived--top it with a few big words to bedazzle the sycophantic, take a few potshots at the environmental movement, and see whether I can get Little Anthony's attention."

Sigh...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting plutorising:

wow. dismissive and inaccurate. and no comments critical to the argument.


What is your problem? My link has nothing to with you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A lack of vertical instability causes dry, stable air.

I think you are discussing chickens and eggs.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
Quoting VaStormGuy:


If you two get severe weather and snow I better get a chilly rain :P

Chilly rain is the best weather event ever :P
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting wxchaser97:


If you get severe weather then I better get snow. :)


This. Mostly because my snow is quickly melting due to that darn bright ball in the sky peaking out now and then. :D

Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Quoting wxchaser97:


If you get severe weather then I better get snow. :)


If you two get severe weather and snow I better get a chilly rain :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txjac:


Looks pretty good to me as I sit here with my AC running!


I know, I had to turn my air on a couple hours ago. This weather is warm, sunny and boring.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I dont want it in TN either, but N GA would be perfect....:)


If you get severe weather then I better get snow. :)
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting hydrus:
Suffice it to say, I do NOT want ANY severe weather HERE...We still have piles of huge branches around our property from the last 8 to10 severe weather events laying around.


I dont want it in TN either, but N GA would be perfect....:)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting allancalderini:
I thought Dry air was.

A lack of vertical instability causes dry, stable air.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32250
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


This is what ive been hoping for all fall

IT DOES
NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS INITIAL IMPULSE COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEXT FRIDAY/ SATURDAY. AND MOISTURE
RETURN OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... COUPLED WITH STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF
THE MID SOUTH AND CENTRAL/ EASTERN GULF STATES.

HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN FAR TOO LARGE TO ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN
AND DELINEATE THE RISK FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

Suffice it to say, I do NOT want ANY severe weather HERE...We still have piles of huge branches around our property from the last 8 to10 severe weather events laying around.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
118 records of states ' highest monthly temperature vs. 1 record of coldest monthly temp.
Well, we are on a good footing ;-).
There are still some folk around with the slogan "Not by fire, but by ice". ;-). It's so true the hope is the last to die. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We will have to see how things continue to play out over the coming months. Everything seems to be coming together for an active season, but we won't know for sure until we get a glimpse at how high or low vertical instability will be for the season. That's the make it or break it factor.
I thought Dry air was.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
491. wxmod
DAVID KEITH: "technology is the easy part; the hard part is the politics."
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1763
Quoting hydrus:
A highly amplified weather pattern usually brings a wide variety of weather to North America, including severe weather caused by strong surface cyclogenesis, return flow and a strong jetstream. It also sends Canadian and Polar air masses into the deep south right after severe weather episodes. The models are not yet showing ideal conditions for this to happen yet, but they are getting close to the mark. This sorta shows how the severe weather brought on, but I believe it will have more of a N.E to S.W configuration as the newer runs come out.


This is what ive been hoping for all fall

IT DOES
NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS INITIAL IMPULSE COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEXT FRIDAY/ SATURDAY. AND MOISTURE
RETURN OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... COUPLED WITH STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF
THE MID SOUTH AND CENTRAL/ EASTERN GULF STATES.

HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN FAR TOO LARGE TO ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN
AND DELINEATE THE RISK FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
489. wxmod
DAVID KEITH: "In a case of emergency we should do all sorts of wild things, but it's not clear what an emergency is."

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2012/s3639 096.htm

Was Sandy an emergency? Is Bopha an emergency? You decide.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1763
pic on WU home page o_0

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting Jedkins01:


It looks like we will finally see some rain around here next week, it has been horrendously dry since mid October. This stubborn ridge should finally break down, allowing upper low to bring instability over the are combining with deeper moisture, setting for a at least a few days with a good shot at rain,

What a weird year, the first 5 months of the year were terribly dry, then it was like someone switched on the fire hose, and most of Central Florida received widespread rainfall of 40 to 50 inches from June into early October, since then we haven't even had an inch, it hasn't rained here measurably in over 2 weeks!
I will say this, I have watched and studied weather for over 30 years, and lived in Florida for about 40. Never have I seen such drastic changes with the climate there. It is not just Florida either, the old timers here in Middle Tennessee say the winters have become less severe since the 1980,s...Last winter was warmer than the average fall season in these parts.....Strange weather..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
A highly amplified weather pattern usually brings a wide variety of weather to North America, including severe weather caused by strong surface cyclogenesis, return flow and a strong jetstream. It also sends Canadian and Polar air masses into the deep south right after severe weather episodes. The models are not yet showing ideal conditions for this to happen yet, but they are getting close to the mark. This sorta shows how the severe weather brought on, but I believe it will have more of a N.E to S.W configuration as the newer runs come out.


Thank you very much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
485. wxmod
Quoting barbamz:


Interesting and scary read, that's for sure. But as much as I understood (maybe I'm a little naive) is that it's still research done in laboratories.


DAVID KEITH: ...

The big question right now really is: should we do research in the open atmosphere? Should we go outside of the laboratory and begin to actually tinker with the system and learn more about whether this will work or not. And I'm somebody who advocates that we do do such research.


Source


A few quotes from the ABC David Keith geoengineering interview:

"DAVID KEITH: I think the debate's changed really because the sort of taboo that we wouldn't talk about it has been broken. So, people have actually known you could do these things for better or for worse for decades, actually since the '60s, but people were sort of afraid to talk about them in polite company for fear that just talking about it would let people off the hook so they wouldn't cut emissions."

"And that fear was broke a few years ago and so now kind of all the research is pouring out really because effectively had been suppressed, not by some terrible suppressor, but by a fear of talking about it."

"At this point we have no regulatory structure whatsoever and no treaty structure, so it's really unclear what would - how such a thing would be controlled."


"DAVID KEITH: It's not very expensive actually to begin to do little in-situ experiments. So I am working on one and many other people are. So what we would do - the experiment that I'm most involved with would look at a certain aspect of stratospheric chemistry, of the way that the ozone layer is damaged and we'd be looking at whether or not and how much increase of water vapour in the stratosphere, which may happen naturally, and also the increase of sulphate aerosols if we geoengineered might damage the ozone layer."

"Basically, how much damage there would be and how we could fix it. And that experiment would be done in a very, very small amount of material; we're talking, like, a tonne of material, so small compared to what an aircraft does travelling across the Pacific. And the cost of it would be a few millions to 5 million kind of money, which on the scale of big atmospheric research projects is actually not that much. I mean, the total climate research budget is billion class."
the total climate research budget is billion class."
the total climate research budget is billion class."
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1763
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Does the data include Alaska?


I wonder why Dr Masters would lgnore Alaska? Alaska is 1/3 the size of the contigual US. Its temperatures averaged 3.1 below normal for November and was the 26th coldest on record.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Which means that the Tropical North Atlantic will stay warmer than average. Cape Verde season next year might be bad. :/

We will have to see how things continue to play out over the coming months. Everything seems to be coming together for an active season, but we won't know for sure until we get a glimpse at how high or low vertical instability will be for the season. That's the make it or break it factor.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32250
Quoting hydrus:
A highly amplified weather pattern usually brings a wide variety of weather to North America, including severe weather caused by strong surface cyclogenesis, return flow and a strong jetstream. It also sends Canadian and Polar air masses into the deep south right after severe weather episodes. The models are not yet showing ideal conditions for this to happen yet, but they are getting close to the mark. This sorta shows how the severe weather brought on, but I believe it will have more of a N.E to S.W configuration as the newer runs come out.


It looks like we will finally see some rain around here next week, it has been horrendously dry since mid October. This stubborn ridge should finally break down, allowing upper low to bring instability over the are combining with deeper moisture, setting for a at least a few days with a good shot at rain,

What a weird year, the first 5 months of the year were terribly dry, then it was like someone switched on the fire hose, and most of Central Florida received widespread rainfall of 40 to 50 inches from June into early October, since then we haven't even had an inch, it hasn't rained here measurably in over 2 weeks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 532 - 482

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
66 °F
Partly Cloudy