Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on December 07, 2012

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The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.

November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Most extreme January - November period on record
The year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Slamguitar:


Ah, the good 'ol days!! Jk, I can't possibly remember those days, since she passed way before my time, but I definitely love many of their songs together!
Yep.It's all kind of a "Purple Haze"
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
Quoting Grothar:


Do you remember Mary Ford?


Ah, the good 'ol days!! Jk, I can't possibly remember those days, since she passed way before my time, but I definitely love many of their songs together!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Do you remember Mary Ford?
And Sgt. Bilko
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
Quoting Grothar:


Do you remember Mary Ford?
Les Paul and Mary Ford
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
Quoting Slamguitar:


Slash was the reason I picked up my first electric guitar at 9 years old. It was a Les Paul. ;)

Also, RIP Les.


Do you remember Mary Ford?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Quoting Slamguitar:


Slash was the reason I picked up my first electric guitar at 9 years old. It was a Les Paul. ;)

Also, RIP Les.
That's very cool Slam...I grew up with Hendrix...
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
Quoting bappit:

Alaska is so far away from the lower 48 that you might as well be trying to combine the lower 48 and Greenland in one statistic. By the way, how has Greenland and its ice cap been doing lately?
Yes it is.

From Alaska to Washington is like 550 miles or about the distance from Washington DC to Savannah GA.

Maine to Greenland is about 1250 miles or about the distance from Washington DC to Houston TX.

So yea they are about the same and at last check the Greenland ice cap is due to melt in 10,000 to 13,000 years.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
Quoting AussieStorm:

Where you knocking on heavens door?
Yep..............Welcome to the Jungle
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Bob Dylan originally, then I believe Clapton, then Guns & Roses.....Slash is one of the best guitar players ever.No matter what condition.


Slash was the reason I picked up my first electric guitar at 9 years old. It was a Les Paul. ;)

Also, RIP Les.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting bappit:
Ants leave chemtrails, don't they?
Do not know about the ants... but I DO know about the 'yellow jackets'. Step on a nest and they will follow you for a 1/4 acre. I know, lose my shorts... and thank heavens I had the granny panties on. Lost my shorts and stung 9 times last year! The second nest, worse... 13 times. And got it again with just 5 stings. Those little shxxxxxts. Think that this year has been better because I now have chickens!!! And no ticks or fleas either.
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Quoting bappit:
Ants leave chemtrails, don't they?


only when they are drunk.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Where you knocking on heavens door?
Bob Dylan originally, then I believe Clapton, then Guns & Roses.....Slash is one of the best guitar players ever.No matter what condition.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
Quoting bappit:
Ants leave chemtrails, don't they?



Yes.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
People are strange, when your a stranger.

And even stranger after you get to know them.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Houston forecast discussion

ANOTHER PARTIALLY CLOUDY DAY WITH ENOUGH SUN ALLOWING MANY COMMUNITIES TO AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. ONSHORE FLOW IS STEADILY INCREASING (OR MAINTAINING) PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.2-1.3 INCH RANGE...THAT IS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR DECEMBER. ONE MORE DAY OF THIS SPRING-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN AND THEN THE WEATHER WILL ABRUPTLY TRANSITION TO WINTER.

AN AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY MORNING...WITH A VERY COLD AND DRY BACKING CANADIAN-ORIGIN AIR MASS...IS STILL ON SCHEDULE.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6031
Quoting Grothar:


I've knocked on that "Door" before.

Where you knocking on heavens door?
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Quoting bappit:
Ants leave chemtrails, don't they?
If you have ever been bitten by a fire ant you would say they leave every kind of trail there is....Fire ants gather on your legs or any body part and when the signal is given"BITE" that is a trail
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
Ants leave chemtrails, don't they?
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6031
Decided to change my temperature color table to a one the National Weather Service uses.

Current temperatures across the Lower 48.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting VR46L:


When your strange (guess I am!!!)

Night
Quoting VR46L:


When your strange (guess I am!!!)

Night
Good evening VR
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
562. VR46L
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Faces come out of the rain


When your strange (guess I am!!!)

Night
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6899
Quoting Grothar:


I've knocked on that "Door" before.
Faces come out of the rain
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
People are strange, when your a stranger.


I've knocked on that "Door" before.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

getting strange?
People are strange, when your a stranger.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
Quoting VR46L:


LOL. true .. but I never said I dont completely disagree in Climate Change happening, the facts are there but I am aware the earth has been warmer and cooler before . anyway its time for me to call it a night .

Good Night Folks
VR, goodnight... I will uphold the female posts
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
Quoting Grothar:
Are people getting strange, or is it just me?


Whatever do you mean?

If you mean strange, as in TA over there, then no, most of us are normal.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 100 Comments: 10280
556. VR46L
Quoting bappit:

Alaska is so far away from the lower 48 that you might as well be trying to combine the lower 48 and Greenland in one statistic. By the way, how has Greenland and its ice cap been doing lately?


LOL. true .. but I never said I dont completely disagree in Climate Change happening, the facts are there but I am aware the earth has been warmer and cooler before . anyway its time for me to call it a night .

Good Night Folks
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6899
555. wxmod
Quoting AGWcreationists:
Seriously, conspiracy-mongers ike you are a dime a dozen on the internet and are predictably lame and paranoid.


Jeff Masters has done a blog or two on the heartland institute, so called think tank, that is all over the internet blogging nonsense, trying to derail the conversation about global warming. Your side of our conversation sounds so absurd to me, I can't help but wonder who is paying you.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1758
Quoting Grothar:
Are people getting strange, or is it just me?
I get stranger every month Gro... I think it's from when I was in 2nd grade and Frankie brought in this little bottle of mercury into the classroom... We all put our fingers in it and any mercury dimes we had.. That is the first time I ever realized that boys were cute.........Nevermind.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
Quoting Grothar:
Are people getting strange, or is it just me?

It's not you and, I think, it's not me.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting Grothar:
Are people getting strange, or is it just me?


No, you are not the only one getting strange. lol
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551. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:21 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Are people getting strange, or is it just me?

getting strange?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
550. Grothar
11:20 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Are people getting strange, or is it just me?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
549. VR46L
11:18 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
so in the hopes of protecting the rest of the forum from them,


Interesting.......
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6899
548. PalmBeachWeather
11:17 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Quoting Astrometeor:


Next time I visit my cousins in Granville, OH, I will wear a blue shirt with a yellow scarf.
Wear protective gear
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
547. bappit
11:16 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Quoting VR46L:


I guess its picking the facts to suit your arguement. I like to get the whole picture but that means checking out alot of information . I mean there are parts of the world that the past two seasons have been down in temperature but the CONUS has been warmer

Alaska is so far away from the lower 48 that you might as well be trying to combine the lower 48 and Greenland in one statistic. By the way, how has Greenland and its ice cap been doing lately?
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6031
546. AGWcreationists
11:15 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


wtf
SOP for conspiracy-mongers. Imply that rational critics must be part of the conspiracy against them. I guess it beats thinking.
Member Since: November 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489
545. Astrometeor
11:14 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
But still a Buckeye fan....


Next time I visit my cousins in Granville, OH, I will wear a blue shirt with a yellow scarf.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 100 Comments: 10280
544. AGWcreationists
11:12 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Quoting wxmod:



You have not been reading what I have been posting. I am not a conspiracy theorist. Don't tell me what I understand and what I don't. You have no idea.

You reflect sunlight away from the ground, clouds don't build up. You add white haze to midlevel, that stagnates the air. You add black dust to the atmosphere, that warms air locally. All these techniques use mining waste and are cheap. I see these techniques used all the time in my area, with my own 2 eyes. You probably see them too, but maybe you are part of the wx mod program, so have an interest in derailing the conversation.
Of course you are not a conspiracy theorist. You are an arbiter of the truth, who sees what the rest of us do not see (CHEMTRAILS!) and your critics are obviously government or corporate shills.

Seriously, conspiracy-mongers ike you are a dime a dozen on the internet and are predictably lame and paranoid.
Member Since: November 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489
543. KoritheMan
11:08 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Quoting wxmod:



You have not been reading what I have been posting. I am not a conspiracy theorist. Don't tell me what I understand and what I don't. You have no idea.

You reflect sunlight away from the ground, clouds don't build up. You add white haze to midlevel, that stagnates the air. You add black dust to the atmosphere, that warms air locally. All these techniques use mining waste and are cheap. I see these techniques used all the time in my area, with my own 2 eyes. You probably see them too, but maybe you are part of the wx mod program, so have an interest in derailing the conversation.


wtf
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20604
542. PalmBeachWeather
11:07 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:


That's what happens when you travel to the worst state ever...
But still a Buckeye fan....
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
541. wxchaser97
11:05 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I make a yearly trek to Ohio from south Florida maybe once a year, whether it be Thanksgiving or Christmas.... Every year I say I will never go back. Such miserable ,ugly weather. Dammit, my brother needs to move from Springboro Ohio.


That's what happens when you travel to the worst state ever...
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
540. Astrometeor
11:01 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Hmm, heard a roll of thunder.
Or, maybe that was my stomach.

Nah, I think it was thunder. But I am hungry.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 100 Comments: 10280
539. PalmBeachWeather
11:01 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Some advice: save your response in a safe spot, and refer to it next time you catch yourself wondering why I (and many others) don't respond to most of your immature, illogical, inane, and insulting comments. That fact is, your repeated failed "Gotcha!!" attempts--like this one--long ago ceased being funny, and they're now just annoying and, frankly, more than a little pathetic. And they're certainly counterproductive, so in the hopes of protecting the rest of the forum from them, I'll leave you to yourself once more.

Take care, and enjoy the holidays!
Such immature posts I have seen today for supposedly grown up humans....
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
538. Neapolitan
10:58 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Quoting nymore:


You said average to abnormally warm including Alaska. So I guess you mean average to abnormally warm in Alaska if it is included.

You may have missed this part

Alaska had its 13th coolest January-November since records began in 1918, with a temperature 2.0F (1.1C) below the 1971-2000 average

BTW nice try bringing the contiguous US with records set to try and obfuscate the point being made.
Face it you got caught making up facts. Now lets move along. Old friend
Some advice: save your response in a safe spot, and refer to it next time you catch yourself wondering why I (and many others) don't respond to most of your immature, illogical, inane, and insulting comments. That fact is, your repeated failed "Gotcha!!" attempts--like this one--long ago ceased being funny, and they're now just annoying and, frankly, more than a little pathetic. And they're certainly counterproductive, so in the hopes of protecting the rest of the forum from them, I'll leave you to yourself once more.

Take care, and enjoy the holidays!
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13537
537. PalmBeachWeather
10:55 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Quoting Astrometeor:


Waiting 30 minutes for a bus once with only a jacket, plus it was about 35 degrees and it was a chilly rain. That sucked. It would have been a lot better if it had been snowing instead.
I make a yearly trek to Ohio from south Florida maybe once a year, whether it be Thanksgiving or Christmas.... Every year I say I will never go back. Such miserable ,ugly weather. Dammit, my brother needs to move from Springboro Ohio.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
536. Astrometeor
10:51 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Growing up in Ohio many years ago.... Chilly rain really sucks


Waiting 30 minutes for a bus once with only a jacket, plus it was about 35 degrees and it was a chilly rain. That sucked. It would have been a lot better if it had been snowing instead.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 100 Comments: 10280
535. PalmBeachWeather
10:49 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Chilly rain is the most pointless weather event ever.....
And in GA a chilly rain is still most likely not even close to a chance of snow.... its just 40F and light rain..
Growing up in Ohio many years ago.... Chilly rain really sucks
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
534. Astrometeor
10:47 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Sigh,....

more light rain moving into my area again.



Image will update itself, I believe, as the original site updates the picture.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 100 Comments: 10280
533. Civicane49
10:43 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
532. yonzabam
10:40 PM GMT on December 08, 2012
Quoting wxmod:



You have not been reading what I have been posting. I am not a conspiracy theorist. Don't tell me what I understand and what I don't. You have no idea.

You reflect sunlight away from the ground, clouds don't build up. You add white haze to midlevel, that stagnates the air. You add black dust to the atmosphere, that warms air locally. All these techniques use mining waste and are cheap. I see these techniques used all the time in my area, with my own 2 eyes. You probably see them too, but maybe you are part of the wx mod program, so have an interest in derailing the conversation.


And maybe you are delusional. There's a lot of that on the Internet. What's your opinion on the moon landings>
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2925

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.