Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history
The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.
November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.
Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Most extreme January - November period on record
The year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.
Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.
Jeff Masters
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I'm disappointed - but not surprised - to read about the death toll in Mindanao. The people there did not really have a full understanding of what to prepare for [or against, really] and Bopha was no child's play. My heart goes out to the relatives of an entire village swept away. How do you get over it when your parents,siblings, extended family, all your childhood friends and neighbours, even the neighbourhood itself, is just - gone?
I gotta get back to work, but if I'm not totally wiped when I get in this evening, I'll check in to see who's around.
- To Name Or Not To Name This Winter System
The winter weather system that will affect a portion of the Central U.S. this weekend is a significant winter weather event, but at this point The Weather Channel will NOT be naming this system as a major winter storm for the U.S. This is still a close call, but based on the combination of forecast winter impacts, it falls just below our criteria to name.
Died rather spectacularly.
Interesting and scary read, that's for sure. But as much as I understood (maybe I'm a little naive) is that it's still research done in laboratories.
DAVID KEITH: ...
The big question right now really is: should we do research in the open atmosphere? Should we go outside of the laboratory and begin to actually tinker with the system and learn more about whether this will work or not. And I'm somebody who advocates that we do do such research.
Source
Climate talks: UN forum extends Kyoto Protocol to 2020
By Roger Harrabin BBC Environment analyst, Doha
UN climate talks in Doha have closed with a historic shift in principle but few genuine cuts in greenhouse gases.
More to read (BBC)
Hydrus, I want to thank you for publishing the Model maps, I really look forward to seeing them.
Again thanks for taking the time to share them with us.
Trunkmonkey!
what in particular, if I may ask, I'm a little rusty on reading these maps.
* Warmest month on record for...Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada.
No states expected their coolest month on record in any month during 2012 thus far.
Images courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center.
We can control climate to some extent (if dumping gigatons of CO2 into the air willy nilly year after year constitutes control), but weather is not climate. No, a single storm is not child's play.
Does the data include Alaska?
Alaska isn't included in the maps. It is just the lower-48.
November 2012 Divisional ranks for anybody that cares:
My area had the farthest departure from normal compared to anywhere across the United States. We averaged 6C below average.
Looks pretty good to me as I sit here with my AC running!
Coastal areas in east China's Shandong Province are expected to be battered by a blizzard and gales over the weekend, local meteorological authorities said on Friday afternoon. The meteorological observatories of the cities of Yantai and Weihai issued orange alerts, the second most serious level of warning, for blizzards, and yellow alerts for strong winds. China has a four-color-coded warning system for extreme weather, with red being the most serious, followed by orange, yellow and blue. Temperatures will continue to drop and some inland regions may see the minimum temperature of minus nine degrees Celsius, according to the local meteorological department. Passenger ships departing from the port city of Yantai for Dalian in northeast China's Liaoning Province have been suspended as of 6 p.m. on Friday and services are expected to resume on Sunday, according to the Yantai Maritime Affairs Administration.
About 200 families of Montawal town in Maguindanao province and some 100 hectares of rice and corn farms in this province were devastated as flashfloods coming from the province of Bukidnon and Cagayan de Oro City overflowed Pulangi River, three days after typhoon Pablo (International name: Bopha) left Mindanao. In Kabacan town, 12 villages along Pulangi River and surrounding villages of Liguasan Marsh were flooded forcing some 1,730 residents to flee their homes. North Cotabato Governor Emmylou Talino-Mendoza said that villages situated along the Pulangi River in Kabacan, Pikit and Pigcawayan towns were inundated, as floodwaters entered their houses forcing residents to evacuate to the national highway and village halls. "When flashfloods hit Cagayan de Oro and Bukidnon, it usually overflows Pulangi River," Talino-Mendoza said, adding that the towns are amongst the low-lying areas of the province. From Bukidnon province, Pulangi River passes through Carmen and Kabacan towns and drains into the Liguasan Marsh. Montawal is part of the catchment basin of the Liguasan Marsh. abacan's Social Welfare and Development officer Susan Macalipat reported that affected with floodwaters are homes, school buildings and rice fields. Severely affected villages of Kabacan are Tamped, Semone, Kayaga, Kilagasan, Magatos, Lower Paatan, Cuyapon, Aringay, Simbuhay, Nangaan, Dalapuan and Salipungan - all are either located along Pulangi River or near the Liguasan Marsh. "Pulangi River overflowed; floodwaters entered schools, residences and submerged the ricefields," Macalipat said. The municipal agriculture is due to release its report on crops damages. Kabacan is a pre-dominantly rice field town.
More than a dozen people have been injured and hundreds of houses left damaged after a tornado swept through the Yogyakarta district of Sleman on Friday. The National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) spokesman said on Saturday that the tornado - which had a radius of two kilometers at a speed of 60 kilometers per hour - lasted for 10 minutes and hit 10 villages in Sleman, with the Bromonila village in the subdistrict of Purwomartani reporting the most damages. "Two people were seriously injured and have to undergo treatment now, and 12 others were lightly wounded," BNPB spokesman Sutopo Purwo said in a statement published at bnpb.go.id. Sutopo said 519 houses in total were damaged and dozens of cattle sheds and hundreds of trees also reportedly collapsed. The district head of Sleman has declared the area an emergency situation until Dec. 11. "The Sleman office of the BPNB has established an emergency station and a makeshift kitchen in Bromonila village," said Sutopo, adding that people displaced from their houses had been evacuated to safe places. The tornado also disrupted some flights to and from the Adisucipto International Airport in Yogyakarta. A Merpati Airlines plane from Bandung was forced to reroute to Surabaya and a Garuda Indonesia flight from Jakarta was forced to turn back.
since you know where it is, you could always post a link.
By Olaf Stampf
The next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts won't be released until late 2013. But insiders say that thanks to faster computers and better models, the report will offer more precise predictions and adjust anticipated changes in sea levels and precipitation.
Read more on Spiegel English
Link
Which means that the Tropical North Atlantic will stay warmer than average. Cape Verde season next year might be bad. :/
In 1972, environmental guru Dennis Meadows predicted in his seminal study "The Limits to Growth" that the world was heading toward an economic collapse. Forty years on, he tells SPIEGEL ONLINE that nothing he has seen since has made him change his mind.
Whole interview on Spiegel English
And with that a good night and a nice Sunday! Barb
wow. dismissive and inaccurate. and no comments critical to the argument.
It looks like we will finally see some rain around here next week, it has been horrendously dry since mid October. This stubborn ridge should finally break down, allowing upper low to bring instability over the are combining with deeper moisture, setting for a at least a few days with a good shot at rain,
What a weird year, the first 5 months of the year were terribly dry, then it was like someone switched on the fire hose, and most of Central Florida received widespread rainfall of 40 to 50 inches from June into early October, since then we haven't even had an inch, it hasn't rained here measurably in over 2 weeks!
We will have to see how things continue to play out over the coming months. Everything seems to be coming together for an active season, but we won't know for sure until we get a glimpse at how high or low vertical instability will be for the season. That's the make it or break it factor.
I wonder why Dr Masters would lgnore Alaska? Alaska is 1/3 the size of the contigual US. Its temperatures averaged 3.1 below normal for November and was the 26th coldest on record.
A few quotes from the ABC David Keith geoengineering interview:
"DAVID KEITH: I think the debate's changed really because the sort of taboo that we wouldn't talk about it has been broken. So, people have actually known you could do these things for better or for worse for decades, actually since the '60s, but people were sort of afraid to talk about them in polite company for fear that just talking about it would let people off the hook so they wouldn't cut emissions."
"And that fear was broke a few years ago and so now kind of all the research is pouring out really because effectively had been suppressed, not by some terrible suppressor, but by a fear of talking about it."
"At this point we have no regulatory structure whatsoever and no treaty structure, so it's really unclear what would - how such a thing would be controlled."
"DAVID KEITH: It's not very expensive actually to begin to do little in-situ experiments. So I am working on one and many other people are. So what we would do - the experiment that I'm most involved with would look at a certain aspect of stratospheric chemistry, of the way that the ozone layer is damaged and we'd be looking at whether or not and how much increase of water vapour in the stratosphere, which may happen naturally, and also the increase of sulphate aerosols if we geoengineered might damage the ozone layer."
"Basically, how much damage there would be and how we could fix it. And that experiment would be done in a very, very small amount of material; we're talking, like, a tonne of material, so small compared to what an aircraft does travelling across the Pacific. And the cost of it would be a few millions to 5 million kind of money, which on the scale of big atmospheric research projects is actually not that much. I mean, the total climate research budget is billion class."
the total climate research budget is billion class."
the total climate research budget is billion class."
Thank you very much.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2012/s3639 096.htm
Was Sandy an emergency? Is Bopha an emergency? You decide.
This is what ive been hoping for all fall
IT DOES
NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS INITIAL IMPULSE COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEXT FRIDAY/ SATURDAY. AND MOISTURE
RETURN OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... COUPLED WITH STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF
THE MID SOUTH AND CENTRAL/ EASTERN GULF STATES.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN FAR TOO LARGE TO ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN
AND DELINEATE THE RISK FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
Well, we are on a good footing ;-).
There are still some folk around with the slogan "Not by fire, but by ice". ;-). It's so true the hope is the last to die. LOL
A lack of vertical instability causes dry, stable air.
I dont want it in TN either, but N GA would be perfect....:)
If you get severe weather then I better get snow. :)
I know, I had to turn my air on a couple hours ago. This weather is warm, sunny and boring.
If you two get severe weather and snow I better get a chilly rain :P
This. Mostly because my snow is quickly melting due to that darn bright ball in the sky peaking out now and then. :D
Chilly rain is the best weather event ever :P
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