Very warm November assures 2012 will be warmest year in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on December 07, 2012

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The heat is on again in the U.S. After recording its first cooler-than-average month in sixteen months during October, the U.S. heated up considerably in November, notching its 20th warmest November since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The warm November virtually assures that 2012 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S. The year-to-date period of January - November has been by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. The December 2011 - November 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the eight warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012. December 2012 would have to be 1°F colder than our coldest December on record (set in 1983) to prevent the year 2012 from being the warmest in U.S. history. This is meteorologically impossible, given the recent December heat in the U.S. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, an early-December heat wave this week set records for warmest December temperature on record in seven states. December 2012 is on pace to be a top-20% warmest December on record in the U.S.

November 2012 was the 8th driest November on record for the U.S., and twenty-two states had top-ten driest Novembers. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought grew from 59% on November 6 to 62% on December 6. This is the largest area of the U.S. in drought since 1954.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for November 2012. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming had top-ten warmest Novembers, while only North Carolina had a top-ten coldest November. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the January - November period. Eighteen states were record warm, and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Most extreme January - November period on record
The year-to-date January - November period was the most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 46% in January - November, more than double the average of 20%. A record 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eleven months of 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%--2nd highest on record. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 32%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme for the January - November period. Heavy 1-day downpours have been below average so far in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - November shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eleven months of the year on record, with 46% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather-more than double the average of 20%.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting wxchaser97:
Now that I know you two better, Kori and TA, you are both stranger.


As you are, Isaac. But who says strange is bad?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Shut up with your nonsense.


You know you wouldn't know what to do without me, Cody.
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Now that I know you two better, Kori and TA, you are both stranger.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, look who's talking.

Ditto. And I'm not talking about the Pokemon.
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626. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
9:00 AM FST December 9 2012
==================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, An area of disturbed weather (1004 hPa) located near 15.0N 152.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position FAIR based on satellite imagery and peripheral surface observations. Convection has not increased much in the past 24 hours

System lies in a moderate sheared environment and just west of an upper diffluent region. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Global models are further developing the system and moves it southwestwards.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

And even stranger after you get to know them.


Yeah, look who's talking.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Link for #619

http://www.dallasnews.com/news/local-news/2012120 8-new-york-mostly-ignored-reports-warning-of-super storm.ece


Read this last night that touches on that and across the country. This may have been posted already.

States, cities look for ways to prepare transportation systems for new rounds of wild weather
By Joan Lowy, The Associated Press | Associated Press – Thu, Nov 22, 2012

WASHINGTON - Wild weather is taking a toll on roads, airports, railways and transit systems across the country.

That's leaving states and cities searching for ways to brace for more catastrophes like Superstorm Sandy that are straining the nation's transportation lifelines beyond what their builders imagined.

Despite their concerns about intense rain, historic floods and record heat waves, some transportation planners find it too politically sensitive to say aloud a source of their weather worries: climate change.

Political differences are on the minds of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, whose advice on the design and maintenance of roads and bridges is closely followed by states. The association recently changed the name of its Climate Change Steering Committee to the less controversial Sustainable Transportation, Energy Infrastructure and Climate Solutions Steering Committee.

Still, there is a recognition that the association's guidance will need to be updated to reflect the new realities of global warming.

"There is a whole series of standards that are going to have to be revisited in light of the change in climate that is coming at us," said John Horsley, the association's executive director
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I don't know a single person any of you are talking about..... :'(


hahahaha i love having all the generations on here. makes for some interesting missed conversations.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
620. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #107
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
9:00 AM JST December 9 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Bopha (1002 hPa) located at 18.3N 119.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.6N 120.2E - Tropical Depression in South China Sea
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sigh...


New York mostly ignored reports warning of superstorm

Associated Press
Published: 08 December 2012 06:56 PM

ALBANY, N.Y. — More than three decades before Superstorm Sandy, a state law and a series of legislative reports began warning New York politicians to prepare for a storm of historic proportions, spelling out scenarios eerily similar to what actually happened: a towering storm surge; overwhelming flooding; swamped subway lines; widespread power outages. The Rockaway peninsula was deemed among the "most at risk."

But most of the warnings and a requirement in a 1978 law to create a regularly updated plan for the restoration of "vital services" after a storm went mostly unheeded, either because of tight budgets or the lack of political will to prepare for a hypothetical storm that may never hit.

Some of the thorniest problems after Sandy, including a gasoline shortage, the lack of temporary housing and the flooding of commuter tunnels, ended up being dealt with largely on the fly.

"I don't know that anyone believed," acknowledged Gov. Andrew Cuomo this past week. "We had never seen a storm like this. So it is very hard to anticipate something that you have never experienced."

Asked how well prepared state officials were for Sandy, Cuomo said, "not well enough."
It wasn't as if the legislative actions over the years were subtle. They all had a common, emphatic theme: Act immediately before it's too late.

The 1978 executive law required a standing state Disaster Preparedness Commission to meet at least twice a year to create and update disaster plans. It mandated the state to address temporary housing needs after a disaster, create a detailed plan to restore services, maintain sewage treatment, prevent fires, assure generators "sufficient to supply" nursing homes and other health facilities, and "protect and assure uninterrupted delivery of services, medicines, water, food, energy and fuel."

Reports in 2005, 2006 and 2010 added urgency. "It's not a question of whether a strong hurricane will hit New York City," the 2006 Assembly report warned. "It's just a question of when."

A 2010 task force report to the Legislature concluded: "The combination of rising sea level, continuing climate change, and more development in high-risk areas has raised the level of New York's vulnerability to coast storms. ... The challenge is real, and sea level rise will progress regardless of New York's response."

...
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618. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
CYCLONE TROPICAL CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
4:30 AM RET December 9 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Claudia (955 hPa) located at 15.0S 74.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/6.0/W1.0/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 55 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
================
75 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 130 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 130 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 160 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 180 Nm in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 16.6S 74.2E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 19.5S 73.6E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 24.3S 73.5E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
The eye pattern has deteriorated somewhat over the last 6 hours with warmer cloud tops and a ragged eye. At 0:00 AM UTC T number averaged over 6h and 3h are respectably At 5.1 and 5.2. PGTW and SAB are at 5.5. AMSU intensity estimate of 2038z with n19 (fov at 10) gives an estimate of 86 knots (10 min winds / 0.88 coeff) that is the basis for the present intensity estimate.

The system was quasi-stat just after 1800 PM UTC. Since that time, it has resumed, as expected, on a southwards track as the mid level ridge existing east of the system is strengthen, producing a northerly steering flow.The motion is still slow right now but is expected to gradually fasten within the next few days.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until this afternoon or tonight. Latest available objective numerical guidance (ALADIN 1200 PM UTC and STIPS 18:00 PM UTC) still show some disagreement. ALADIN-REUNION gradually weakens Claudia today and make it loose the tropical cyclone level Sunday night. STIPS suggest a max intensity at 100-105 knots later today ... The present forecast calls now for gradual weakening but not so aggressive as ALADIN-REUNION.

On and after monday, system is expected to evolve over marginal heat oceanic content associated with stronger vertical northerly wind shear. From Tuesday night or Wednesday, system should curve southeastward and start its extratropical process with winds that should remain strong before easing at the end of the forecast period.
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US Wildfires of 2012:


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
Quoting AllyBama:
Is this old folks night on the blog? looks lke I fit right in with all of the oldies - lol
Yes it is old folks night and it is 8:10 PM. Time for bed.Good night all.
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Is this old folks night on the blog? looks lke I fit right in with all of the oldies - lol
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Quoting Grothar:


What do you mean "believe". You were probably at some of his performances. :)
Shhh, Trying to keep that a secret
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Rudy Vallee would sing through a contraption I believe was called a megaphone.


What do you mean "believe". You were probably at some of his performances. :)
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Oooooh
Even a subtropical jet phasing.....:



AL/MS/GA 50-70kt LLJ under 110 kt jet streak:




And LOTS of storms:


no idea on CAPE yet though.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
NDRRMC (National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council) Update Sitrep No. 20 re Effects of Typhoon "PABLO" (BOPHA) as of 09 December 2012, 5:00AM (Report)

Just a few numbers from the report.

As of 09 December 2012, 5:00 AM,
540 were reported dead
1,088 were injured
827 are still missing
Eleven bridges and eight roads are not passable.
Twenty-one municipalities and cities experiencing power interruption.
Six areas are experiencing interruption in water supply.

A total of 46,428 damaged houses ( 21,227 were partially damaged, 25,201 were totally damaged/destroyed)

Total damages of PHP 6,084,480,540 (infrastructure = PHP 2,510,263,310, agriculture = PHP 3,605,778,737)

5,408,229 people effected.


Ugggh....storms like this....
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
Quoting Grothar:


Rudy Vallee was considered the first crooner. Odd little fellow, but very popular. Sophie Tucker, well, she was a cabaret singer and comedian. One of kind performer and one of the most beloved of her time. I was lucky enough to catch her at the end of her career. The last century saw some of the greatest musical and theatrical entertainers which unfortunately are unknown to many today.
Rudy Vallee would sing through a contraption I believe was called a megaphone.
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Quoting Astrometeor:


I was good up until you mentioned these names. Who are they, and why have I never heard of them?
You might say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one
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Quoting Astrometeor:


I was good up until you mentioned these names. Who are they, and why have I never heard of them?


Rudy Vallee was considered the first crooner. Odd little fellow, but very popular. Sophie Tucker, well, she was a cabaret singer and comedian. One of kind performer and one of the most beloved of her time. I was lucky enough to catch her at the end of her career. The last century saw some of the greatest musical and theatrical entertainers which unfortunately are unknown to many today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NDRRMC (National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council) Update Sitrep No. 20 re Effects of Typhoon "PABLO" (BOPHA) as of 09 December 2012, 5:00AM (Report)

Just a few numbers from the report.

As of 09 December 2012, 5:00 AM,
540 were reported dead
1,088 were injured
827 are still missing
Eleven bridges and eight roads are not passable.
Twenty-one municipalities and cities experiencing power interruption.
Six areas are experiencing interruption in water supply.

A total of 46,428 damaged houses ( 21,227 were partially damaged, 25,201 were totally damaged/destroyed)

Total damages of PHP 6,084,480,540 (infrastructure = PHP 2,510,263,310, agriculture = PHP 3,605,778,737)

5,408,229 people effected.
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Quoting hydrus:
Be my guest...You better have bulldozer and a chainsaw ready.


I have 2 stihl chain saw's a trailer, and a pickum up truck. I bee ready to assist Hydrus!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 558
R&B was the original Rock & Roll. Love those oldies. Loved the girl Tina Marie too! Always copied and forever the link to modern music today.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Loved it Gro


If we tried that today, they would have to have a medical team standing by.
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Quoting Grothar:


The next thing you are going to tell us is that you never heard of Rudy Valle or Sophie Tucker!! Uhmp. Kids today.


I was good up until you mentioned these names. Who are they, and why have I never heard of them?
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Quoting Grothar:
If you kids want to see how all the modern music started, just look at this. (I'm wearing the white tie)

Link
Loved it Gro
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I always thought Brian Setzer was one of the best..........
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If you kids want to see how all the modern music started, just look at this. (I'm wearing the white tie)

Link
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Quoting nymore:
Lets not forget about Satriani or Van Halen or Clapton
Wish they all could be California girls
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And I can't forget to mention Hank Marvin

Theme from the Dear Hunter. Hank Marvin can make a guitar sing.
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Quoting goosegirl1:



How can you post on this blog and not know who Jimmy Page is??? Report straight to patrap soldier!
Got a whole lotta Love
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Stevie Ray Vaughan, BB King, Jimmy Page and Hank Williams.
Lets not forget about Satriani or Van Halen or Clapton
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Quoting Grothar:


The next thing you are going to tell us is that you never heard of Rudy Valle or Sophie Tucker!! Uhmp. Kids today.
Rosemary Clooney
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I don't know a single person any of you are talking about..... :'(

Google or Youtube them and you'll find out.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I don't know a single person any of you are talking about..... :'(



How can you post on this blog and not know who Jimmy Page is??? Report straight to patrap soldier!
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Quoting Grothar:


I think the Colonel on that was Paul Ford, no relation. :)
Yep
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Quoting Slamguitar:


Ah, the good 'ol days!! Jk, I can't possibly remember those days, since she passed way before my time, but I definitely love many of their songs together!
Slam myself and Gro " Skipped the light fandango,Turned cartwheels cross the floor
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I don't know a single person any of you are talking about..... :'(


The next thing you are going to tell us is that you never heard of Rudy Valle or Sophie Tucker!! Uhmp. Kids today.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Stevie Ray Vaughan, BB King, Jimmy Page and Hank Williams.
I LOVE STEVIE RAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yousa
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I don't know a single person any of you are talking about..... :'(


Sounds like we need to send you a musical care package. :D
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1176
Quoting Slamguitar:


Ah, the good 'ol days!! Jk, I can't possibly remember those days, since she passed way before my time, but I definitely love many of their songs together!


They were great together.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
And Sgt. Bilko


I think the Colonel on that was Paul Ford, no relation. :)
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One of the better off-topic topics going on right now, haha.

I love all these artists mentioned and grew up on all of 'em.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1176
I don't know a single person any of you are talking about..... :'(
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
Quoting Grothar:


Do you remember Mary Ford?

Stevie Ray Vaughan, BB King, Jimmy Page and Hank Williams.
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Quoting Slamguitar:


Ah, the good 'ol days!! Jk, I can't possibly remember those days, since she passed way before my time, but I definitely love many of their songs together!
Yep.It's all kind of a "Purple Haze"
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.