At least 370 dead from Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:21 PM GMT on December 05, 2012

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The death toll in the Philippines from Typhoon Bopha has risen to at 370, with hundreds more missing. Bopha (called "Pablo" in the Philippines), slammed ashore on the Philippine island of Mindanao at 4:45 am local time on Tuesday morning as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Bopha is only Category 5 typhoon on record to make landfall on Mindanao, which rarely sees strong typhoons due to its position close to the Equator. Most of the deaths occurred in the gold-rush mountain towns of New Bataan and Monkayo due to typhoon-spawned landslides and flash floods. According to an op-ed published at sunstar.com, much of the death toll can be blamed on the fact that deforestation has reduced forest cover on Mindanao to just 10%, which allows more dangerous flash floods to occur. Passage over land has weakened Bopha to a Category 1 storm today, and the typhoon is now far enough from the Philippines that it no long poses a heavy rain threat. The island of Mindanao is highly vulnerable to flood disasters from tropical cyclones; last year's Tropical Storm Washi, which hit Mindanao on December 16, 2011 with 60 mph winds and torrential rains, killed over 1200 people. Before hitting the Philippines, Typhoon Bopha brought a storm surge estimated at ten feet to the island nation of Palau, where near-total destruction is being reported in some coastal areas.


Figure 1. Super Typhoon Bopha as seen from the International Space Station on December 2, 2012. At the time, Bopha had top sustained winds of 150 - 155 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. The devastation brought about by powerful Typhoon Bopha is seen at Montevista township, Compostela Valley in southern Philippines Wednesday Dec. 5, 2012. (AP Photo/Bullit Marquez)

Extreme damage on Mindanao
Category 5 storms make landfall only once every few years somewhere in the world, and the damage they cause is invariably extreme and dramatic. According to a story at inquirer.net, a 10-hectare plantation of coconut trees in the town of Baganga, Davao Oriental, were all felled. It's takes some pretty extreme winds to bring down coconut trees, which commonly are the only things still standing after passage of a major hurricane or typhoon. Damage surveys from Tropical Cyclone Larry, which made landfall in 2006 in Australia as a Category 4 storm, indicated that coconut trees were able to withstand wind gusts of 135 mph, but toppled when the gusts reached 145 mph (thanks go to Dr. Bruce Buckley of the Reinsurance Group Australia for this info.) Aerial damage surveys from Mindanao (Video 1) show very heavy damage near where the eye came ashore, due to extreme winds and high storm surge.


Video 1. An aerial survey of damage near where the eye of Typhoon Bopha made landfall in Davao Oriental province on Mindanao Island in the Philippines shows widespread severe damage, bordering on catastrophic.

The International Red Cross is accepting donations for typhoon relief in the Philippines.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MontanaZephyr:


I might be wrong, but I have a vague recollection of a whopper storm in the east Pacific ... maybe a dozen years ago or so with top winds at 175 with gusts to, I think it was 225. The cat rating structure generally goes up in increments of 20 MPH, so it would've rated as a cat 6.

You know, even in a cat 3, the sounds are very very weird because of the speed of the wind, aside from it's howling against things and its howling against itself: You hear things happening really really close that are in fact hundreds and hundreds of yards upwind, while things just 50 yards downwind you might not hear at all.

A gust at 225 MPH is about 1/3 the speed of sound.

I don't know if hurricane surfing (where you go up in one in a Helium balloon.... balloon people say that since you move with the wind, it doesn't matter how fast it blows ... a tissue will lay still on the edge of the basket...!) is actually possible... but if it is, imagine what the sound would be like floating along in it....

..what a gas!


wow.. 1/3 of being supersonic???

well look at 2009's Rick winds near 180 mph!!!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14872
447. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Storm "PABLO" has maintained its strength and continues to move north northwestward slowly

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Pablo [980 hPa] located at 14.0°N 115.6°E or 540 km west of Ambulong, Batangas has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots gusting up to 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest 4 knots.

Additional Information
========================
Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern and central Luzon and the western seaboard of southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


no category 6 needed...for now


I might be wrong, but I have a vague recollection of a whopper storm in the east Pacific ... maybe a dozen years ago or so with top winds at 175 with gusts to, I think it was 225. The cat rating structure generally goes up in increments of 20 MPH, so it would've rated as a cat 6.

You know, even in a cat 3, the sounds are very very weird because of the speed of the wind, aside from it's howling against things and its howling against itself: You hear things happening really really close that are in fact hundreds and hundreds of yards upwind, while things just 50 yards downwind you might not hear at all.

A gust at 225 MPH is about 1/3 the speed of sound.

I don't know if hurricane surfing (where you go up in one in a Helium balloon.... balloon people say that since you move with the wind, it doesn't matter how fast it blows ... a tissue will lay still on the edge of the basket...!) is actually possible... but if it is, imagine what the sound would be like floating along in it....

..what a gas!
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Quoting Civicane49:
Bopha is trying to re-develop an eye on satellite image.



I though it was weakening to death
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14872
Quoting wxchaser97:

It is not like it is a strong tropical cyclone and it isn't affecting/affected land.


the sat image is oddly pixelated
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14872
Bopha is trying to re-develop an eye on satellite image.

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Quoting Tazmanian:
poor Tropical Storm 03S not geting any love

It is not like it is a strong tropical cyclone and it isn't affecting/affected land.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7975
Quoting wxchaser97:

That would be interesting, yet pretty unlikely, to see doom or apocalyptic on the NHC advisory.


e.g.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND... EXTREMELY DEADLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA... THESE APOCALYPTIC WINDS WILL BE THE WORST EVEN SEEN TO STRIKE ANYWHERE IN THE USA. EXPECT COMPLETE DEVASTATION ACROSS MIAMI, ORLANDO, TAMPA AND THE KEYS AS THE CATACLYSMIC HURRICANE CROSSES THE PENINSULA.
AS OF NOW TIME FOR PREPARATIONS ARE OVER. MUST HAVE OBEYED THE MANDATORY EVACUATIONS AS EVERYTHING IN THE HURRICANE'S PATH WILL BE LEVELED TO THE GROUND. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION...


OMG!!!.. I'm going to piss in my pants reading this (if it ever comes true or something like this)
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14872
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


right...at this time

Unless storms of the specified magnitude become much more frequent over the next few years, don't expect to see a Category 6 anytime in the upcoming decades, if at all.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33143
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


right...at this time

It would be like saying we need an EF6 for tornadoes.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7975
03S:

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Quoting Tazmanian:
poor Tropical Storm 03S not geting any love


Blame Bopha...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14872
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


some options...

doom, apocalypse, cataclysmic...

180 mph or greater is not as (worst). We have EF5 for 200 mph.. but yeah they are

have you seen level 10 of the torino scale??
10. A collision is certain, capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean. Such events occur on average once per 100,000 years, or less often.

That would be interesting, yet pretty unlikely, to see doom or apocalyptic on the NHC advisory.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7975
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Given the fact that the miles per hour range within each category on the SSHWS averages to be 23, it would probably look something like this...

Tropical Depression: <38 mph
Tropical Storm: 39-73 mph
Category 1: 74-95 mph
Category 2: 96-110 mph
Category 3: 111-129 mph
Category 4: 130-156 mph
Category 5: 157-180 mph
Category 6: >181 mph

...but considering storms with an intensity equal to, or greater than, 140 knots (160 mph, Cat. 5) are rare to begin with, a Category 6 isn't really needed at this time.


right...at this time
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14872
poor Tropical Storm 03S not geting any love
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Given the fact that the miles per hour value within each category on the SSHWS averages to be 23, it would probably look something like this...

Tropical Depression: <38 mph
Tropical Storm: 39-73 mph
Category 1: 74-95 mph
Category 2: 96-110 mph
Category 3: 111-129 mph
Category 4: 130-156 mph
Category 5: 157-180 mph
Category 6: >181 mph


I have heard 180mph as the threshold on here a few times but that helps seeing the whole scale at once. Still doesn't answer my question though... I was more looking for what they would use as the wording for the definition.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7975
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Given the fact that the miles per hour value within each category on the SSHWS averages to be 23, it would probably look something like this...

Tropical Depression: <38 mph
Tropical Storm: 39-73 mph
Category 1: 74-95 mph
Category 2: 96-110 mph
Category 3: 111-129 mph
Category 4: 130-156 mph
Category 5: 157-180 mph
Category 6: >181 mph


change this...

category 5: 157-179
category 6: >180
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14872
Quoting wxchaser97:

What would the definition of a category 6 hurricane even be since cat 5 is total destruction?

Given the fact that the miles per hour range within each category on the SSHWS averages to be 23, it would probably look something like this...

Tropical Depression: <38 mph
Tropical Storm: 39-73 mph
Category 1: 74-95 mph
Category 2: 96-110 mph
Category 3: 111-129 mph
Category 4: 130-156 mph
Category 5: 157-180 mph
Category 6: >181 mph

...but considering storms with an intensity equal to, or greater than, 140 knots (160 mph, Cat. 5) are rare to begin with, a Category 6 isn't really needed at this time.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33143
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


is it re -organizing???

Yes it is
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Quoting Civicane49:


is it re -organizing???
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14872
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427. wxmod
The same pacific area shown in my previous post, this photo taken a couple of hours later. MODIS aqua



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Quoting wxchaser97:

What would the definition of a category 6 hurricane even be since cat 5 is total destruction?


some options...

doom, apocalypse, cataclysmic...

180 mph or greater is not as (worst). We have EF5 for 200 mph.. but yeah they are

have you seen level 10 of the torino scale??
10. A collision is certain, capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean. Such events occur on average once per 100,000 years, or less often.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14872
Australia offers P210M in aid for ‘Pablo’ victims

MANILA, Philippines — Australia on Friday announced that it offered P210 million (A$5 million) in assistance to the Philippines for the conduct of relief operations for flood victims heavily affected by Typhoon Pablo (international name Bopha), the worst storm to hit the country this year.
A statement from the Australian embassy in Manila noted that the announcement was made by Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr.
“On behalf of the Australian Government and people, I extend heartfelt sympathies for the loss of lives and destruction resulting from this devastating typhoon,” said Australian Embassy Chargé d’affaires Andrew Byrne.
“We commend the Philippine Government for its preparedness and response. We will continue to work with the government and other partners so they can draw on Australian assistance as needed,” Byrne added.
It said that of the P210 million (A$5million), P38.5 million (A$900,000) would be given to the Philippine Red Cross (PRC) for emergency family kits which include sleeping mats, mosquito nets and water containers, and another P43 million (A$1 million) would be given to the World Food Programme (WFP) for 1000 tons of rice.
“Australia will also make available P4 million (A$100,000) through the United Nations Population Fund for hygiene and health kits for people in evacuation centers. It added that the remaining P126 million (A$3 million) will be made available for additional recovery and relief needs.
The statement noted that the Philippines and Australia had been in development cooperation partnerships for over 50 years. It said that Australia had provided more than P760 million in humanitarian and emergency aid to the Philippines since 2005.
Australia also stood as one of the top grant donors to the Philippines, with total annual aid estimated at P5.5 billion.
Typhoon Pablo, which slammed which slammed Visayas and Mindanao early this week, had claimed the lives of more than 400 people, and left hundreds were missing and injured.
The Philippine government also noted that damages from the typhoon could amount to P4 billion, and affected at least 5 million people.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


no category 6 needed...for now

What would the definition of a category 6 hurricane even be since cat 5 is total destruction?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7975
Video from Cateel, Davao Oriental.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bopha, that's a horrible eye.


You could preform some LASIK and that will improve the eye...
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7975
Quoting wxgeek723:


There really is no need for a category 6 hurricane, just like there wasn't really any need for an F6.

Q and U names are a no-no, but I do think the Atlantic should have alternating XYZ names like the East Pacific.


no category 6 needed...for now
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14872
Bopha, that's a horrible eye.

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419. wxmod
Ship pollution in the Pacific. MODIS satellite photo today. Some of these pollution plumes are 50 miles WIDE.

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Merry Fourth of July from West Palm Beach!


I knew I had a long nap but I didn't think I overslept this much!
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Merry Fourth of July from West Palm Beach!



Um... what??? you gone back in time??
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15987
Updated microwave imagery of Bopha:

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Merry Fourth of July from West Palm Beach!

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Davaoenos capture Pablo's wrath on camera
Video
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15987
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15987
Quoting MAweatherboy1:


For some reason I thought the Philippines were Spain and that was a microwave of the storm in the Atlantic you posted earlier and I was like WTF, lol.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3775
'Arctic Report Card' Shows Region Spiraling Into Volatile State Due To Climate Change

Link
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Bopha's blowing up quite a bit of convection near its center:

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Quoting wxgeek723:


There really is no need for a category 6 hurricane, just like there wasn't really any need for an F6.

Q and U names are a no-no, but I do think the Atlantic should have alternating XYZ names like the East Pacific.
I actually would like that they start using the U letter names can for example Ursula,Urina, Ulysses etc.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
The Barometer Bob Show for December 6, 2012.
Guest is Wayne Neely, author of a new book "The Great Bahamas Hurricane of 1866". He will talk about this and some of his other books, as well as recent hurricanes affecting the Bahamas.

Starts in 5 minutes. Go here to watch.

I'm there. I may even call into the show via skype in the second hour.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15987
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


did anyone from there evacuated...or they didn't even know what was going to happen?


As I understand, the town involved in at least one of the floods was not considered to be in danger, and actually hosted one or more evacuation centers. It was not realized by their government that a flood of this magnitude was possible at that location.

Even in the U.S. statistical and historical flood maps are actually horribly flawed in many cases, and nobody even runs worst case scenario computer simulations on hurricanes. They still run a stupid category 3 computer simulation for a NOLA landfall, even since Katrina, knowing category 5 storms can and do hit the area.


As for inland flooding, I once had a geology instructor who claimed he witnessed two inland floods at the same location in the same year which exceeded the 100 year mark. Now you can say that's a coincidence (the probability of that happening is probably less than or equal to one in ten thousand,) or you can say "maybe there's something wrong with our assumptions about flood frequency."


It would do us well to re-evaluate flood maps based on physical models, rather than historical or statistical models, and yes, try to find and evaluate worst case scenarios. Don't just model what's "bad enough to scare the hell out of you," but even worse than that, just in case.



So their government didn't know. They don't have long enough records to have historical examples, and they probably don't have the funds and technology to model it like the U.S. does, and even if they had our funds, if they are like us, they'd model a 30 year event, which might have given little or no indication of the actual severity of a 100 year event.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
405. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #91
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
9:00 AM JST December 7 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Bopha (980 hPa) located at 13.7N 115.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.6N 115.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 16.1N 116.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 16.1N 117.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
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404. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20122013
4:30 AM RET December 7 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 13.6S 76.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
70 NM radius from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 13.9S 75.0E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 14.3S 74.6E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical
72 HRS: 16.0S 74.6E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================
A good low level inflow is already present on its both sides, taking advantage of a weakening northeasterly vertical wind shear during the very last hours, deep convective activity has consolidated around the center. The curved banding remain discontinued

Under the steering influence of the low to mid levels subtropical ridge, system is expected to track globally west southwestwards on Thursday and Friday. On Saturday, steering flow is expected to be weak and system is therefore expected to slow down. Then on and after Sunday, the mid level ridge is expected to shift eastwards and strengthen, producing a northerly steering flow. System is therefore expected to track southwards under the steering influence of this aforementioned mid level ridge.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until Sunday or very favorable due to two outflow channels on Saturday. This schedule should allow the system to regularly intensify and to reach tropical cyclone stage on Saturday.

On and after Monday, system is expected to track over marginal heat oceanic content and north-westerly vertical wind shear is expected to regularly strengthen. System should therefore begin its extra-tropicalization
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
In 2008 the SSHS wave height pertaining to a category was challenged by Ike...then the scale with the wave height because useless. Then it became the SSHWS...

In 2010 the watches and warnings were extended to 36-48 hours for more preparation.

In 2012 a minimal modification was made to category 4 and 5.

In 2012 watches and warnings are now for sub and post tropical storms...


....possible changes in the future... 2013,3014,2015 etc...

-The scale could be significantly modified and adding category 6
-The size of the storm could determine the pressure in a new scale for size and pressure
-A new set of warnings could be added based on a risk scale for the potentially affected areas
-more named added into the list..adding names for q, u,x, y and z
-etc.


There really is no need for a category 6 hurricane, just like there wasn't really any need for an F6.

Q and U names are a no-no, but I do think the Atlantic should have alternating XYZ names like the East Pacific.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3775
Quoting stormchaser19:

will be interesting to see if they change sandy, to a major cat.3.

I am sure they will.
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401. bappit
12:27 AM GMT on December 07, 2012
Quoting percylives:


Good luck, Philippines. The representatives are all in the pockets of the fossil fuel producers. This one is especially hilarious with the meeting in the middle of several of the world's biggest oil fields and in a country where freedom of expression is not high on the list. With all the oil producers and the US addicts well represented it was a waste of fossil fuels getting them all to the meeting.

Perhaps when a Cat 5 comes into the Persian Gulf and puts 30 feet of ocean in one of those fancy new Gulf cities, perhaps....

Dunno, since China has easily passed the US as the most prolific CO2 producer, I think the US fossil fuel industry is just running interference for the Sino fossil fuel industry.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6174
400. percylives
12:23 AM GMT on December 07, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:
'Open your eyes,' Philippines tells climate meet

DOHA - The Philippines urged bickering UN climate negotiators in Doha on Thursday to take heed from the deadly typhoon that struck the archipelago this week and wake up to the realities of global warming.
.......


Good luck, Philippines. The representatives are all in the pockets of the fossil fuel producers. This one is especially hilarious with the meeting in the middle of several of the world's biggest oil fields and in a country where freedom of expression is not high on the list. With all the oil producers and the US addicts well represented it was a waste of fossil fuels getting them all to the meeting.

Perhaps when a Cat 5 comes into the Persian Gulf and puts 30 feet of ocean in one of those fancy new Gulf cities, perhaps....
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 99
399. trHUrrIXC5MMX
12:20 AM GMT on December 07, 2012
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah I would imagine it will go up more given it will take time to find all that are dead. Hopefully most that are known to be missing will be found alive.


did anyone from there evacuated...or they didn't even know what was going to happen?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14872
398. Jedkins01
12:15 AM GMT on December 07, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Those are the official number. Unofficial it's over 550 deaths now.


Yeah I would imagine it will go up more given it will take time to find all that are dead. Hopefully most that are known to be missing will be found alive.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8135

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