Category 5 Super Typhoon Bopha bearing down on the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:41 PM GMT on December 03, 2012

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Extremely dangerous Typhoon Bopha is bearing down on the Philippine island of Mindanao as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Bopha completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Sunday and has been steadily intensifying today, and will make landfall on Mindanao in the early morning on Tuesday local time. Mindanao rarely gets hit by typhoons, since the island is too close to the Equator, and the infrastructure of Mindanao is not prepared to handle heavy typhoon rains as well as the more typhoon-prone northern islands. Bopha is potentially a catastrophic storm for Mindanao. The typhoon is following a similar track to last year's Tropical Storm Washi, which hit Mindanao on December 16, 2011 with 60 mph winds and torrential rains. Washi triggered devastating flooding that killed 1268 people. Washi was merely a tropical storm, and Bopha is likely to hit at Category 4 or 5 strength, making it the strongest typhoon ever recorded in Mindanao.


Figure 1. Super Typhoon Bopha at 01:45 UTC on December 2, 2012. At the time, Bopha had top sustained winds of 150 mph, as was just below its peak intensity of 155 mph, which it reached from 06 - 12 UTC on December 2. Image credit: NASA.

Bopha: the 2nd most southerly typhoon on record
Bopha became a tropical depression unusually close to the Equator, at 3.6°N latitude. Tropical cyclones rarely form so close to the Equator, because they cannot leverage the Earth's rotation to get themselves spinning. According to hurricane expert Dr. Paul Roundy of SUNY Albany, Bopha got its spin from a large-scale atmospheric wave called a mixed Rossby gravity wave. Because of the lack of atmospheric spin so close to the Equator, it took Bopha over four days to intensify into a typhoon, and it stayed a relatively small storm. Bopha became the 2nd most southerly typhoon ever recorded in the Western Pacific at 06 GMT on November 30, when the storm was at 3.8°N latitude. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center lists Typhoon Vamei of 2001 as the most southerly typhoon on record, at 1.5°N. However, other meteorological agencies do not credit Vamei with reaching typhoon strength, so this record is disputed. The previous most southerly typhoon was Typhoon Kate of 14 - 25 October 1970, which reached typhoon intensity at 4.3°N, 137.4°E. Bopha continued intensifying over the weekend, becoming the second most southerly super typhoon ever recorded (150 mph winds) at 00 GMT on December 1, when it was at 6.1°N latitude. The record most southerly super typhoon was Kate, which reached super typhoon intensity at 6.0°N, 126.3°E. Kate struck the Philippine island of Mindanao as a Category 4 storm, killing 631 people. Bopha further intensified into a Category 5 typhoon on Monday at 7.4°N latitude, becoming the second most southerly Category 5 typhoon on record, next to Typhoon Louise of 1964, which was a Category 5 storm at 7.3°N. According to NOAA's Coastal Services Center, there have been only 4 previous typhoons of at least Category 4 strength to track within 200 nautical miles of Mindanao Island, dating back to 1945: Mike ("Ruping" ) in 1990, Ike ("Nitang") in 1984, Kate ("Titang") in 1970, and Louise ("Ining" ) in 1964.


Figure 2. Tracks of all Category 4 typhoons to affect the southern Philippine Island of Mindanao since 1945. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

The closest a tropical cyclone has ever been to the Equator is 0.7°N, by Tropical Cyclone Agni in the North Indian Ocean in November 2004. Agni got counter-clockwise spin from the presence of the summer monsoon circulation in the Indian Ocean. The closest a Western Pacific tropical cyclone has been to the Equator is 1.4°N latitude, by Tropical Storm Vamei on December 27, 2001. Vamei hit Singapore after Christmas in 2001, at a latitude of 1.5°N.


Figure 3. This MET-5 visible satellite image taken at 0400 UTC November 28, 2004, shows Agni as a developing tropical storm just north of the Equator in the Indian Ocean. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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637. Skyepony (Mod)
5:50 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
626. barbamz~ That guy has what we refer to as a hurricane ball in his hand. Everyone here has pools..when the storms knock down the cages the beach balls get free. I'd bet some go for miles. In Jeanne & Frances I spotted several on the loose, flying down roads & even found a few after.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39457
636. red0
5:35 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:

Been expecting this for months.

I wonder how many railroad lanes will be required to replace the shipping traffic if the river dries up or stays too low for a prolonged time?

Economic damage could be some obscene number in the hundreds of billions or maybe even trillion per year if this was to get too dry and stay too dry for like a solid year or more.

It doesn't look impossible for the river to dry up for most or even all of a year, given the drought conditions and the already below average snowfall for this winter for all the tributary basins that feed the Mississippi River.

I wonder which governor or mayor or president we should blame for this disaster whereby so many farms and corporations have centralized their transports, relying too heavily on a river? I mean, it has got to be some elected officials fault, right?


So the government borrows some more money from itself (then quietly disappears the debt 20 years later) to finance a bunch of new railroads. Great an infrastructure project! Jobs!

Aquifers along the Mississippi haven't been doing well for years. Less water can't be good for the farms that rely on those aquifers.

Doesn't really matter who is at fault. It's a problem, and the government is the only entity that can do something about it if the river dries up.
Member Since: June 8, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
635. RTSplayer
5:08 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting indianrivguy:


I don't think it was the levees protecting from "ocean" storm surge that failed.. it was the levees around Pontchartrain.


Surge on Pontchartrain was over 18ft, and actually knocked parts of the Causeway off their pylons, if I remember correctly.

This is the old SS scale:





The 18ft or more was considered a category 5 storm surge, and the scale was originally intended to classify storms by an either/or system, which was never actually used, not just the winds.

I believe TWC played the video from Slidell area repeatedly with the guy who stayed behind and filmed it all from his house.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
634. NttyGrtty
5:03 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
I will donate $1 to my local Caring & Sharing for every minute that Katrina isn't mentioned starting now...
Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 872
633. PalmBeachWeather
5:02 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting nymore:

Not at all but this is not about death (if it were why not talk about worse hurricanes to hit the USA in terms of death) this is about who is to blame for those deaths and who is to blame for the response.

As for the flooding- that would be the core of engineers for faults in the design of the levies. Some of which could not even take 50% of the pressure before failing. this happened in 4 cases, most other cases were caused by overtopping causing erosion and failure.

As for a lot of the deaths I would blame people for not leaving when warned to do so. The president, governor or mayor can not stop the storm.

As far as relief efforts I see no clean hands here. The problems did not start to get solved until Lieutenant General Russel Honore got there and started kicking some folks behinds.

nymore....One death is too many, and if it is a friend or relative it makes a bigger impact wether it be 7 years or 37 years.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
632. barbamz
5:01 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
So it was true after all ...

CDO police chief gets flak for breakfast priority

report from Primy Cane, ABS-CBN News Northern Mindanao
Posted at 12/04/2012 9:12 PM | Updated as of 12/04/2012 9:12 PM

CAGAYAN DE ORO, Philippines - The Cagayan de Oro (CDO) City police chief is receiving flak for making breakfast his top priority instead of helping people threatened by Typhoon Pablo leave for safer grounds.

Read more
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 63 Comments: 6723
631. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:00 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
630. indianrivguy
4:57 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:


Not their fault at all.

The Levee was designed to stop a category 3 storm surge, according to the old Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.

Katrina's storm surge was off the scale, and was actually several feet higher than Camille's, which was a T-7.5, category 5 landfall (based on wind speed and pressure).

It's sort of like expecting a half-ton test rope to hold up a full ton. Maybe you get lucky and it does hold, but don't blame the manufacturer if it breaks and your truck falls on your head.


I don't think it was the levees protecting from "ocean" storm surge that failed.. it was the levees around Pontchartrain.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2639
629. barbamz
4:56 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:


That's just awful.

You'd think that location would have had at least some protection due to the elevation of the other islands in the direction of the storm. To see reports of surge and wave action that bad in such a heavily protected location, compared to where the original landfall happened, is just unthinkable. The eye would have been low cat 3 to high cat 2 on it's closest approach there, and with it in a small strait, you'd think there wouldn't be room to build up such large surge and waves.


Perhaps this exactly was the problem? Sort of pipe effect for the waves?
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 63 Comments: 6723
628. RTSplayer
4:53 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Hammond Temperatures so far today:


Actual Average (KMSY) Record (KMSY)
Mean Temperature 68 °F -
Max Temperature 75 °F 65 °F 80 °F (1998)
Min Temperature 62 °F 44 °F 30 °F (1974)

The overnight low was nearly equal to the average high, and he daily mean has already exceeded the average high.

Today's forecast is 79f, so we're going to make a run for the record, it seems.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
627. RTSplayer
4:47 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting nymore:

Not at all but this is not about death (if it were why not talk about worse hurricanes to hit the USA in terms of death) this is about who is to blame for those deaths and who is to blame for the response.

As for the flooding- that would be the core of engineers for faults in the design of the levies. Some of which could not even take 50% of the pressure before failing. this happened in 4 cases, most other cases were caused by overtopping causing erosion and failure.

As for a lot of the deaths I would blame people for not leaving when warned to do so. The president, governor or mayor can not stop the storm.

As far as relief efforts I see no clean hands here. The problems did not start to get solved until Lieutenant General Russel Honore got there and started kicking some folks behinds.



Not their fault at all.

The Levee was designed to stop a category 3 storm surge, according to the old Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.

Katrina's storm surge was off the scale, and was actually several feet higher than Camille's, which was a T-7.5, category 5 landfall (based on wind speed and pressure).

It's sort of like expecting a half-ton test rope to hold up a full ton. Maybe you get lucky and it does hold, but don't blame the manufacturer if it breaks and your truck falls on your head.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
626. barbamz
4:42 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Meanwhile in Palau (islands visited first by Bopha) where damage assessment is still ongoing (or just starting):



Guam -Palau's Oceania TV is reporting that the village of Ngkeklau on the eastern coast of Palaus largest island, Babeldoab, was practically wiped out by the tidal surge of Typhoon Bopha.

According to the report, many of the villagers have lost their homes and the entire village is without power, water, and communications.

OCEANIA TV reports that high watermarks inside still standing structures indicates that the tidal surge may have been as high as 10 feet.

Detailed coverage

Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 63 Comments: 6723
625. RTSplayer
4:39 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting barbamz:
Waves sweep coastal village in Cebu
By Jhunnex Napallacan
Source: Inquirer Visayas

CEBU CITY—Big waves spawned by Typhoon “Pablo” on Tuesday night destroyed the sea wall and 17 houses and damaged seven government offices in Boljoon town, about 100 km south of this city.

The typhoon also displaced at least 300 persons — among them residents of the 17 houses that were washed out by big waves in the coastal village of Poblacion, Boljoon.

The others were residents who were forced to leave their homes in anticipation of the storm that placed southern Cebu under storm signal number 3 on Tuesday.

The evacuees were temporarily housed inside the church, private school and covered court in Sitio (subvillage) Talisay, Barangay (village) Poblacion.

Boljoon Municipal Planning Officer Engr. Corazon Medida said the surge of big waves occurred at 7:30 p.m. which lasted for at least 30 minutes. She added smaller waves continued at 10:30 p.m. Tuesday.

The big waves made some residents think that a tsunami had hit the town. A listener of radio station dyLA sent a text, asking if there was a tsunami alert because the town’s seawall had collapsed and some houses were washed out.

Medida said the seawall at the town’s baywalk was destroyed after its riprap collapsed.

The strong waves entered the different offices in the municipal hall, which is located near the sea, she added.

The back portion of the municipal hall was affected, including the offices of the social welfare, budget, treasurer, engineering, planning and civil registry as well as the police station.

Cebu Provincial Police Office director Patrocino Comendador said Boljoon policemen had to transfer to another area after seawater entered the police station.

Medida said some documents were damaged by water but they were able to save these since some personnel had reported for work.

But the 17 houses in Sitio Talisay were destroyed by the waves since these were made of light materials, said Medida.

She said most of the occupants failed to save their belongings.

One man, she added tried to get some of his belongings but was almost swept by the waves. Fortunately, the man was saved.



That's just awful.

You'd think that location would have had at least some protection due to the elevation of the other islands in the direction of the storm. To see reports of surge and wave action that bad in such a heavily protected location, compared to where the original landfall happened, is just unthinkable. The eye would have been low cat 3 to high cat 2 on it's closest approach there, and with it in a small strait, you'd think there wouldn't be room to build up such large surge and waves.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
624. Barefootontherocks
4:38 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
It is valid to compare these two weather events, the 2005 K storm and the 2012 mega-superstorm formerly known as Sandy. There are more, of course, but here are three similarities I see...

1) On the part of state and local government and the general public, disbelief (flip side being misdirected hope) a weather event of this scope could happen.

2) Large number of persons/families left with broken infrastructure and unlivable dwellings (not to mention broken dreams - a whole 'nother category) because a weather event of this scope did happen and they had the misfortune of being in its way.

3) Blame game with little recognition that the death and destruction occurred because a weather event of this scope did happen.

A couple of the dissimilarities...

1) Model forecasting much better in 2012. Improved in seven years.

2) Unlike 2012, in 2005 Government herded persons displaced from their homes onto airplanes bound for parts unknown that turned out to be as far away as Washington State. One lady I met in New Orleans ended up in AZ where she felt welcomed and appreciated. Even at that, after a few months she returned to NOLA. Who wouldn't?
:)

The point of this comment? I'm not sure except I think it's easy to be misinformed and/or brainwashed in these days of non-detailed journalism and internet opinion blogs. I just heard the name of Truckee, CA mispronounced on TWC and the last name of Oklahoma's Gov. Mary Fallin mispronounced on CNN. It's Faal lin, CNN, not Fallen. LOL Just the same, she was pretty impressive in front of the cameras. Bi-partisan state governor group meeting with President Obama today. Apparently.

...
Dang the biases. Show me the straightforward and real.

Hope you all have a nice day.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 159 Comments: 19393
623. MrMixon
4:37 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Super Typhoon Bopha from the International Space Station

(Click image for full size)

So pretty she's kind of ugly. Thoughts are with the folks affected...

Source: NASA
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
622. thunderbug91
4:32 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting red0:
IR animation of Saturn's south pole taken on Sept 27. I think the entire earth could fit into that eye. Must be a cat 500 or something lol.




Evacuations immediately!
Member Since: June 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 589
621. RTSplayer
4:31 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting JNCali:
In case you missed this.. US Drought causing the Mississippi river to drop forcing stoppage of commercial traffic in order to blow up jagged rocks in river bed which prevent the passage of barges and I hope this is not a run on sentence... :/

Link


Been expecting this for months.

I wonder how many railroad lanes will be required to replace the shipping traffic if the river dries up or stays too low for a prolonged time?

Economic damage could be some obscene number in the hundreds of billions or maybe even trillion per year if this was to get too dry and stay too dry for like a solid year or more.

It doesn't look impossible for the river to dry up for most or even all of a year, given the drought conditions and the already below average snowfall for this winter for all the tributary basins that feed the Mississippi River.

I wonder which governor or mayor or president we should blame for this disaster whereby so many farms and corporations have centralized their transports, relying too heavily on a river? I mean, it has got to be some elected officials fault, right?
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
620. red0
4:29 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
IR animation of Saturn's south pole taken on Sept 27. I think the entire earth could fit into that eye. Must be a cat 500 or something lol.



Member Since: June 8, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
619. nymore
4:29 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
nymore....... In your mind there must be a statute of limitations when we no longer think of all of the deaths in a past hurricane.ie: Katrina..Am I right nymore??

Not at all but this is not about death (if it were why not talk about worse hurricanes to hit the USA in terms of death) this is about who is to blame for those deaths and who is to blame for the response.

As for the flooding- that would be the core of engineers for faults in the design of the levies. Some of which could not even take 50% of the pressure before failing. this happened in 4 cases, most other cases were caused by overtopping causing erosion and failure.

As for a lot of the deaths I would blame people for not leaving when warned to do so. The president, governor or mayor can not stop the storm.

As far as relief efforts I see no clean hands here. The problems did not start to get solved until Lieutenant General Russel Honore got there and started kicking some folks behinds.

Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2260
618. thunderbug91
4:29 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
MANILA, Philippines - At least 33 villagers and soldiers drowned in a southern Philippine town Tuesday when torrents of water dumped by a powerful typhoon cascaded down a mountain, engulfing emergency shelters and an army truck, officials said. The deaths raised the toll from one of the strongest storms to hit the country this year to at least 41.

Gov. Arturo Uy said rain from Typhoon Bopha accumulated atop a mountain and then burst down on Andap village in New Bataan town in hard-hit Compostela Valley province. The victims included villagers who had fled from their homes to a school and village hall, which were then swamped by the flash flood. An army truck carrying soldiers and villagers was washed away.

"They thought that they were already secure in a safe area, but they didn't know the torrents of water would go their way," Uy told DZBB radio.

He said the confirmed death toll in the town was likely to rise because several other bodies could not immediately be retrieved from floodwaters strewn with huge logs and debris.

Army troops and police were not able to reach the town because access roads were blocked, he said.

Bopha slammed into Davao Oriental province region at dawn, its ferocious winds ripping roofs from homes and its 500-kilometer (310-mile) -wide rain band flooding low-lying farmland.

The storm, packing winds of 160 kilometers (100 miles) per hour and gusts of up to 195 kph (121 mph), toppled trees, triggered landslides and sent flash floods surging across the region's mountains and valleys.

Two entire provinces lost power and more than 100 domestic flights were canceled. About 60,000 people fled to emergency shelters.

The dead included three children who were buried by a wall of mud and boulders that plunged down a mountain in Marapat village, also in Compostela Valley. Their bodies were wrapped in blankets by their grieving relatives and placed on a stage in a basketball court.

"The only thing we could do was to save ourselves. It was too late for us to rescue them," said Valentin Pabilana, who survived the landslide.

In Davao Oriental, a poor agricultural and gold-mining province about 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) southeast of Manila, an elderly woman was killed when her house was struck by a falling tree, said Benito Ramos, who heads the government's disaster-response agency.

The other casualties either drowned or were hit by trees, he said, adding that the death toll was expected to rise once soldiers and police gain access to villages isolated by floods, fallen trees and downed communications.

While some 20 typhoons and storms normally lash the archipelago nation annually, the southern provinces battered by Bopha are unaccustomed to fierce typhoons, which normally hit the northern and central Philippines.

A rare storm last December killed more than 1,200 people and left many more homeless and traumatized, including in Cagayan de Oro city, where church bells pealed relentlessly on Tuesday to warn residents to scramble to safety as a major river started to swell.

Officials were taking no chances this year, and President Benigno Aquino III appealed on national TV on Monday for people in Bopha's path to move to safety and take storm warnings seriously.

In Compostela Valley, authorities halted mining operations and ordered villagers to evacuate to prevent a repeat of deadly losses from landslides and the collapse of mine tunnels in previous storms.

Bopha, a Cambodian word for flower or a girl, is the 16th weather disturbance to hit the Philippines this year. Forecasters say at least one more storm may strike the country before Christmas.

___

Associated Press writer Teresa Cerojano contributed to this report.
Member Since: June 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 589
617. StormPro
4:28 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Link


A link to a Times Picayune article about an upcoming storm surge meeting where you can ask questions of the NHC
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 606
616. barbamz
4:27 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Waves sweep coastal village in Cebu
By Jhunnex Napallacan
Source: Inquirer Visayas

CEBU CITY—Big waves spawned by Typhoon “Pablo” on Tuesday night destroyed the sea wall and 17 houses and damaged seven government offices in Boljoon town, about 100 km south of this city.

The typhoon also displaced at least 300 persons — among them residents of the 17 houses that were washed out by big waves in the coastal village of Poblacion, Boljoon.

The others were residents who were forced to leave their homes in anticipation of the storm that placed southern Cebu under storm signal number 3 on Tuesday.

The evacuees were temporarily housed inside the church, private school and covered court in Sitio (subvillage) Talisay, Barangay (village) Poblacion.

Boljoon Municipal Planning Officer Engr. Corazon Medida said the surge of big waves occurred at 7:30 p.m. which lasted for at least 30 minutes. She added smaller waves continued at 10:30 p.m. Tuesday.

The big waves made some residents think that a tsunami had hit the town. A listener of radio station dyLA sent a text, asking if there was a tsunami alert because the town’s seawall had collapsed and some houses were washed out.

Medida said the seawall at the town’s baywalk was destroyed after its riprap collapsed.

The strong waves entered the different offices in the municipal hall, which is located near the sea, she added.

The back portion of the municipal hall was affected, including the offices of the social welfare, budget, treasurer, engineering, planning and civil registry as well as the police station.

Cebu Provincial Police Office director Patrocino Comendador said Boljoon policemen had to transfer to another area after seawater entered the police station.

Medida said some documents were damaged by water but they were able to save these since some personnel had reported for work.

But the 17 houses in Sitio Talisay were destroyed by the waves since these were made of light materials, said Medida.

She said most of the occupants failed to save their belongings.

One man, she added tried to get some of his belongings but was almost swept by the waves. Fortunately, the man was saved.

Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 63 Comments: 6723
615. thunderbug91
4:25 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Super typhoon Bopha smashed into the southern Philippines island of Mindanao early this morning with estimated sustained winds of 160 mph and torrential, flooding rains.

Flood waters “rampaged down a mountain, engulfing emergency shelters and washing away an army truck” the Associated Press (AP) reports. The reported death toll from the storm has reached at least 40 people and will likely climb “because several other bodies could not immediately be retrieved from floodwaters” the AP says.
The UK Met office says Bopha was the most intense typhoon on record to strike the island of Mindanao. It adds the storm produced 3.6 inches of rain in 6 hours at Malaybalay, a city on the island.

The passage over Mindanao and interaction with land has weakened Bopha. But it remains a formidable typhoon with peaks winds around 100 mph, equivalent to a category 2 hurricane. Tracking through the northern Sulu Sea, it is forecast to continue west-northwest through the west-central Philippines. By tomorrow, it will depart and head into the South China Sea.
Meteorologically, the storm was notable for reaching such a high intensity so close to the equator. Writes the Weather Channel:

Bopha just missed being the closest-to-equator category-five equivalent typhoon on record in the western North Pacific Basin (or any other basin, for that matter), reaching that intensity at 7.4 degrees north latitude Monday morning (U.S. time). Only Typhoon Louise in 1964, becoming a category-five equivalent typhoon at 7.3 degrees north latitude, was closer to the equator.

Member Since: June 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 589
614. all4hurricanes
4:25 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Katrina was a political issue many people living in New Orleans did not have the means to evacuate they knew the storm was coming though, finding transport and a place to stay is expensive and many people simply couldn't do it. So the government (local, state and national) were tasked with protecting or evacuating the people because the government is supposed to protect the people. But plans to evacuate the poor fell apart, the super dome was significantly under stocked and unprepared and national aid took far to long to reach New Orleans.
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2377
613. RTSplayer
4:23 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
There also was a lack of wargaming for issues such as gasoline shortages.


The government can't do anything about that.

Capitalistic, corporate monopolies own all the fuel, and the distribution stations as well. Blame them for fuel shortages, or have people blame themselves for not buying enough ahead of time.


What this points out is the limitation of foresight that is common in many organizations, both governmental and private. Pretending such problems don't exist is no way to solve them.


Who do you expect to make individual plans for every family and then ensure the families actually obey them?

If people won't even obey a general "life or limb" warning to get to a safer location, why would you expect them to obey some specific list of things, which nobody could possibly anticipate every detail anyway?!


Maybe our government should do like Castro and just arrest everyone who doesn't evacuate and take them away forcibly. At least then people like you couldn't blame them for idiotic loss of life that was mostly caused by individual choices.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
612. hydrus
4:23 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting yoboi:



actually with logistics you can pre stage supplies did not happen with sandy and they knew where sandy was going to make lanfall days in advance....fema blew it....but whats new...best thing to do is not count on the gov for anything be prepared before a disaster.....
Good post. People who are old enough ( and responsible Enough ) not to mention intelligent enough to watch and listen to weather reports and news updates should take action on there own part, especially those areas which are at risk for storms and other natural disasters, instead of counting on government or other agencies to save them. I have been through hurricanes and knew what to expect. We were prepared, and survived with little assistance from local and federal government. I am by no means saying that people should not receive government aid, just do not think of them as a cure all after a major disaster.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22719
611. VR46L
4:14 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting yoboi:



actually with logistics you can pre stage supplies did not happen with sandy and they knew where sandy was going to make lanfall days in advance....fema blew it....but whats new...best thing to do is not count on the gov for anything be prepared before a disaster.....


You know you have a point as regards Sandy's landfall except for the GFS the rest of the models were showing near exactly where she was going nearly a week in advance and the Euro in my opinion had her pretty much completely right . Really there should have been no excuses about people not evacuating or having everything in place when it happened I never seen a storm so well predicted if you ignore the outlier ...GFS
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6998
610. StormPro
4:14 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:



Some just want bigger, more powerful, more intrusive government.

And that's the cold, hard truth...





Not some...the majority. Anyone whom has any questions about what FEMA is legally able to do please go read the 44CFR (code of federal regulations).
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 606
609. RTSplayer
4:14 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting AGWcreationists:
This is a good writeup of the overall problems at all levels with Katrina. Nagin and Blanco had plenty of problems of their own:

http://www.hstoday.us/channels/dhs/single-article -page/hurricane-isaac-presents-challenge-to-local- state-and-federal-leadership/8e3d3639429e8cd920db2 e20c6ed3de6.html

Looks like there isn't much point in discussing this, it seems everyone has their own political biases that color their views. Didn't mean to derail the larger discussion here.



It's not a political issue.

What's so hard about the concept that everybody should keep up with the weather for themselves, and realize the realistic limits of where they live, and take personal responsibility to save their own life?

Katrina wasn't even a pop-up hurricane. It hit land in Florida as a max TS/weak cat 1, and was all over the weather channel, CNN, and yes even FOX news, and everybody knew about where it was going.

I knew it was out there 6 days ahead of time, because it had already been reported by NOAA and all the news and weather agencies, and I didn't even use internet tools at the time. In fact, while watching Katrina in the Gulf in 2005 is the first time I started using the old NOAA satellite site and buoy data site regularly.

Although initially it was forecast by TWC to re-curve much harder than it actually did, that level of perfection in forecasting did not exist at the time, and NHC actually had it pretty good, but not perfect.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
607. AGWcreationists
4:10 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:



Well, you can't possibly know exactly where the supplies are going to be needed nor exactly where they will be safe, particularly in a storm like Sandy which was becoming non-tropical.

It is foolish to expect someone to be at your door a few hours after the worst weather passes. Real world logistics just doesn't work that way. The agencies don't even know who needs help, when or where until several hours later, because they typically need eye-witness reports from news or firemen or police, or else wait to fly over in a helicopter to do an assessment. It wouldn't make sense to start trucking everything around before you even know who really needs it.
Will respond one more time here. The water was in Georgia and Virginia. It could have easily moved by the truckload to Central NJ to where it could have been quickly distributed. The new FEMA was supposed to massively pre-deploy such supplies. They did not. There also was a lack of wargaming for issues such as gasoline shortages. What this points out is the limitation of foresight that is common in many organizations, both governmental and private. Pretending such problems don't exist is no way to solve them.

BTW, that Snopes article is extremely vague and omits a tremendous amount of detail.
Member Since: November 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 492
606. yoboi
4:09 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
One thing is very clear: obviously cognizant of the embarrassingly bad pre- and post-Katrina response of the Bush administration--"Heckuva a job, Brownie!"--the current administration did a far superior job handling Sandy, which ultimately affected a far larger number of people and businesses than did Katrina. And Gov. Christie is to be commended for rising above party politics, if only for a few fleeting moments, to place people above ideology. (And in agreement with the link provided by goosegirl1, it's true that while both Nagin and Blanco somewhat dropped the ball, they overall each did yeoman's work with a pretty bad situation. Kudos...)



it starts at the local level but i understand why you won't be to harsh on them because they were both from the dem party....state has to ask for fed's help fed's can't just go bust in and takeover but that might change in the next couple of yrs....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2600
605. JNCali
4:06 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
In case you missed this.. US Drought causing the Mississippi river to drop forcing stoppage of commercial traffic in order to blow up jagged rocks in river bed which prevent the passage of barges and I hope this is not a run on sentence... :/

Link
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
604. yoboi
4:04 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:



Well, you can't possibly know exactly where the supplies are going to be needed nor exactly where they will be safe, particularly in a storm like Sandy which was becoming non-tropical.

It is foolish to expect someone to be at your door a few hours after the worst weather passes. Real world logistics just doesn't work that way. The agencies don't even know who needs help, when or where until several hours later, because they typically need eye-witness reports from news or firemen or police, or else wait to fly over in a helicopter to do an assessment. It wouldn't make sense to start trucking everything around before you even know who really needs it.



actually with logistics you can pre stage supplies did not happen with sandy and they knew where sandy was going to make lanfall days in advance....fema blew it....but whats new...best thing to do is not count on the gov for anything be prepared before a disaster.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2600
603. PalmBeachWeather
4:02 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting nymore:
WHO CARES ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED IN NEW ORLEANS OVER 7 YEARS AGO. IT IS DONE AND OVER WITH AND YOU CAN NOT CHANGE ANYTHING ABOUT IT NOW.

SO FOR THE LOVE OF GOD LET IT GO
nymore....... In your mind there must be a statute of limitations when we no longer think of all of the deaths in a past hurricane.ie: Katrina..Am I right nymore??
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
602. barbamz
4:00 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting barbamz:


New overview report:
Pablo claims 56 lives in Davao Region


80 dead as Pablo rips through Mindanao
ABS-CBNnews.com
Posted at 12/04/2012 9:47 PM | Updated as of 12/04/2012 10:58 PM

Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 63 Comments: 6723
601. thunderbug91
3:59 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting AGWcreationists:
This is a good writeup of the overall problems at all levels with Katrina. Nagin and Blanco had plenty of problems of their own:

http://www.hstoday.us/channels/dhs/single-article -page/hurricane-isaac-presents-challenge-to-local- state-and-federal-leadership/8e3d3639429e8cd920db2 e20c6ed3de6.html

Looks like there isn't much point in discussing this, it seems everyone has their own political biases that color their views. Didn't mean to derail the larger discussion here.

I actually agree with your points, its just I'm concerned with the present situation right now...
Sorry if I seemed abrasive earlier.
Member Since: June 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 589
600. AGWcreationists
3:54 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
One thing is very clear: obviously cognizant of the embarrassingly bad pre- and post-Katrina response of the Bush administration--"Heckuva a job, Brownie!"--the current administration did a far superior job handling Sandy, which ultimately affected a far larger number of people and businesses than did Katrina. And Gov. Christie is to be commended for rising above party politics, if only for a few fleeting moments, to place people above ideology. (And in agreement with the link provided by goosegirl1, it's true that while both Nagin and Blanco somewhat dropped the ball, they overall each did yeoman's work with a pretty bad situation. Kudos...)
This is a good writeup of the overall problems at all levels with Katrina. Nagin and Blanco had plenty of problems of their own:

http://www.hstoday.us/channels/dhs/single-article -page/hurricane-isaac-presents-challenge-to-local- state-and-federal-leadership/8e3d3639429e8cd920db2 e20c6ed3de6.html

Looks like there isn't much point in discussing this, it seems everyone has their own political biases that color their views. Didn't mean to derail the larger discussion here.
Member Since: November 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 492
599. barbamz
3:51 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bopha's death toll is already at 52 this morning.



New overview report:
Pablo claims 56 lives in Davao Region
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 63 Comments: 6723
598. thunderbug91
3:50 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bopha's death toll is already at 52 this morning.


And if i read right, theres at least 100 or so missing?
Member Since: June 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 589
597. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:48 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Bopha's death toll is already at 52 this morning.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32870
596. PalmBeachWeather
3:47 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting nymore:
WHO CARES ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED IN NEW ORLEANS OVER 7 YEARS AGO. IT IS DONE AND OVER WITH AND YOU CAN NOT CHANGE ANYTHING ABOUT IT NOW.

SO FOR THE LOVE OF GOD LET IT GO
"NEA" I just dropped you from my bucket list... I think this person that is called nymore (and in caps) made #4 with people I want to meet in person... Please don't be offended Nea, you were dropped behind high heeled shoes yesterday...Luv ya Nea...
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
595. thunderbug91
3:46 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting goosegirl1:



Just one thig to add, and then I for one will drop it... I live in WV for pete's sake, and I was following Katrina and watching it buzz saw right into NOLA. If I could see it, I'm pretty certain everyone else could, too.

It comes down to responsabilty for self and others. Know the hazards in your area, and prepare. If you wait for the government to save you or tell you to leave, obviously you waited too long.













Very well said. Now, back to the Philippines.....
Member Since: June 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 589
594. goosegirl1
3:43 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:


Problem is that's exactly the mentality that got over a thousand people killed in NOLA and Mississippi.

"Who cares what happened in Betsy or Camille. I'm staying!!" - Last words.



Just one thig to add, and then I for one will drop it... I live in WV for pete's sake, and I was following Katrina and watching it buzz saw right into NOLA. If I could see it, I'm pretty certain everyone else could, too.

It comes down to responsabilty for self and others. Know the hazards in your area, and prepare. If you wait for the government to save you or tell you to leave, obviously you waited too long.












Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1261
592. thunderbug91
3:42 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Member Since: June 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 589
591. Neapolitan
3:40 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting nymore:
WHO CARES ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED IN NEW ORLEANS OVER 7 YEARS AGO. IT IS DONE AND OVER WITH AND YOU CAN NOT CHANGE ANYTHING ABOUT IT NOW.
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it"
--George Santayana, Life of Reason I
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
590. thunderbug91
3:40 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Member Since: June 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 589
589. barbamz
3:39 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
From Bopha landfall area

Translation from Tagalog language via google:

Recorded as of 23 dead and 95 wounded in Cateel, Davao Oriental also deeply beaten by Cyclone Pablo.

Col said. Romil Mitra, director of the Davao Oriental Provincial Police Office recovered the bodies of the destroyed houses and establishments in Poblacion still only Cateel.

He said they have not been off-limits to the secluded village so feared further increases the number of killed or wounded.

It also mentioned that now isolated town of Cateel, Boston and Bangaga since the collapse of the bridge, nor He added communication and electricity there.

Right now he said, the bus parked treated or temporarily placed the wounded because of Cateels ruined homes and hospitals.

Report from Dennis Datu, Radyo Patrol 42

Source
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 63 Comments: 6723
588. RTSplayer
3:37 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting nymore:
WHO CARES ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED IN NEW ORLEANS OVER 7 YEARS AGO. IT IS DONE AND OVER WITH AND YOU CAN NOT CHANGE ANYTHING ABOUT IT NOW.

SO FOR THE LOVE OF GOD LET IT GO


Problem is that's exactly the mentality that got over a thousand people killed in NOLA and Mississippi.

"Who cares what happened in Betsy or Camille. I'm staying!!" - Last words.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
587. PalmBeachWeather
3:36 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Quoting nymore:
WHO CARES ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED IT NEW ORLEANS OVER 7 YEARS AGO. IT IS DONE AND OVER WITH AND YOU CAN NOT CHANGE ANYTHING ABOUT IT NOW.

SO FOR THE LOVE OF GOD LET IT GO
Oh my.And in caps also
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000

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