Category 5 Super Typhoon Bopha bearing down on the Philippines
Extremely dangerous Typhoon Bopha is bearing down on the Philippine island of Mindanao as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Bopha completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Sunday and has been steadily intensifying today, and will make landfall on Mindanao in the early morning on Tuesday local time. Mindanao rarely gets hit by typhoons, since the island is too close to the Equator, and the infrastructure of Mindanao is not prepared to handle heavy typhoon rains as well as the more typhoon-prone northern islands. Bopha is potentially a catastrophic storm for Mindanao. The typhoon is following a similar track to last year's Tropical Storm Washi, which hit Mindanao on December 16, 2011 with 60 mph winds and torrential rains. Washi triggered devastating flooding that killed 1268 people. Washi was merely a tropical storm, and Bopha is likely to hit at Category 4 or 5 strength, making it the strongest typhoon ever recorded in Mindanao.
Figure 1. Super Typhoon Bopha at 01:45 UTC on December 2, 2012. At the time, Bopha had top sustained winds of 150 mph, as was just below its peak intensity of 155 mph, which it reached from 06 - 12 UTC on December 2. Image credit: NASA.
Bopha: the 2nd most southerly typhoon on record
Bopha became a tropical depression unusually close to the Equator, at 3.6°N latitude. Tropical cyclones rarely form so close to the Equator, because they cannot leverage the Earth's rotation to get themselves spinning. According to hurricane expert Dr. Paul Roundy of SUNY Albany, Bopha got its spin from a large-scale atmospheric wave called a mixed Rossby gravity wave. Because of the lack of atmospheric spin so close to the Equator, it took Bopha over four days to intensify into a typhoon, and it stayed a relatively small storm. Bopha became the 2nd most southerly typhoon ever recorded in the Western Pacific at 06 GMT on November 30, when the storm was at 3.8°N latitude. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center lists Typhoon Vamei of 2001 as the most southerly typhoon on record, at 1.5°N. However, other meteorological agencies do not credit Vamei with reaching typhoon strength, so this record is disputed. The previous most southerly typhoon was Typhoon Kate of 14 - 25 October 1970, which reached typhoon intensity at 4.3°N, 137.4°E. Bopha continued intensifying over the weekend, becoming the second most southerly super typhoon ever recorded (150 mph winds) at 00 GMT on December 1, when it was at 6.1°N latitude. The record most southerly super typhoon was Kate, which reached super typhoon intensity at 6.0°N, 126.3°E. Kate struck the Philippine island of Mindanao as a Category 4 storm, killing 631 people. Bopha further intensified into a Category 5 typhoon on Monday at 7.4°N latitude, becoming the second most southerly Category 5 typhoon on record, next to Typhoon Louise of 1964, which was a Category 5 storm at 7.3°N. According to NOAA's Coastal Services Center, there have been only 4 previous typhoons of at least Category 4 strength to track within 200 nautical miles of Mindanao Island, dating back to 1945: Mike ("Ruping" ) in 1990, Ike ("Nitang") in 1984, Kate ("Titang") in 1970, and Louise ("Ining" ) in 1964.
Figure 2. Tracks of all Category 4 typhoons to affect the southern Philippine Island of Mindanao since 1945. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
The closest a tropical cyclone has ever been to the Equator is 0.7°N, by Tropical Cyclone Agni in the North Indian Ocean in November 2004. Agni got counter-clockwise spin from the presence of the summer monsoon circulation in the Indian Ocean. The closest a Western Pacific tropical cyclone has been to the Equator is 1.4°N latitude, by Tropical Storm Vamei on December 27, 2001. Vamei hit Singapore after Christmas in 2001, at a latitude of 1.5°N.
Figure 3. This MET-5 visible satellite image taken at 0400 UTC November 28, 2004, shows Agni as a developing tropical storm just north of the Equator in the Indian Ocean. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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LOL seriously....!
Found by twitter:
MiGs @buddymigs
Here's a video i took kanina showing gano kalakas ang hangin ni #typhoonPablo dito sa Tagum Davao del Norte
Solar Maximum (of the 11 year cycle, not the long term cycles,) plus record high CO2, plus no sea ice, plus widespread droughts from previous year...
This could be the new normal, and I do mean literally.
Here's a video I took a while ago showing how strong the wind's # typhoonPablo here in Tagum Davao del Norte
You might not have gotten your worst weather yet, if you're where Google Earth says you are. I think what's left of the eye is a tad ENE of your position.
You can still make out the eye wall, even though it's covered over by clouds, there's enough of a color change.
Now we wait to hear from the disaster regions...
Yes, I'm convinced it was a cat 5 landfall, just a matter of how strong.
Based on the NOAA estimates, I think the eye hit land as a T 7.2, because on the very next update after that is when the big temperature change happened in the eye.
People keep expecting that huge drought region to disappear. I don't think it will though, at least not for any meaningful (as in a decade or longer) period of time. Global warming is seriously changing the structure of the weather on this planet, and there is no reason to assume it won't continue to do so. Incidentally, I do believe said drought is what's causing the subsident flow/sinking air pattern we've seen plague the Atlantic basin for the last two years. Also, I strongly believe the loss of arctic sea is contributing to the recurve pattern by enhancing an upstream east coast trough. Teleconnection patterns do exist.
People keep expecting to see another season like 2005 or 2008 (myself included), and while we will likely still see some, I think the hurricane seasons of old are a thing of the past. If I'm correct, major hurricanes will become rarer.
As of now, this is still an untested hypothesis, but it makes sense from a meteorological standpoint. It's a subject I intend to do much more research on. But I think 10 or 20 years down the line, it will have gained some credibility.
As of 7:05AM, at least 22,000 individuals have been evacuated in Cagayan de Oro City
A total of 8,312 families evacuated (preemptive) to 69 evacuation centers in Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Iligan and CDO.
i guess i should feel insulted...because my question probably qualifies as derp.
Davao Oriental Gov. Corazon Malanyaon tells ANC power & most of communication lines are down in their province
.@atomaraullo: Rain has not been as strong as expected in St. Bernard, evacuation done as a preemptive measure to keep people safe #PabloPH
.@atomaraullo: Gov't has been more cautious, residents near mountainsides have been evacuated since yesterday in St. Bernard #PabloPH
On ANC, @atomaraullo reports that in St. Bernard, So.Leyte, wind has been picking up. Power lines toppled, causing power outages #PabloPH
Tayag: Hospitals now on white alert due to Typhoon Pablo.
If that's real that guy needs to be fired immediately.
wtf?
yeah seen that
Breakfast is the most important meal of the day.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #66
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
9:00 AM JST December 4 2012
=======================================
SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon Overland Mindanao
At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (940 hPa) located at 7.9N 125.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 15 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: Overland
Storm Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.0N 120.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sulu Sea
48 HRS: 11.5N 118.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 12.1N 117.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Not unless it's waffles.
Anonymous tweets are not newsworthy.
Primy Cane @PrimyCk
Mayor declared Code Red in CDO at 7 but OIC Police Chief Montalba at 8 am said forced evac cant start yet bec he is still "having breakfast"
Priscilla Tanjuatco @XillaXill
@PrimyCk Wow! I guess "having breakfast" is more important THAN the lives of the people in CDO. #PabloPH
by Rappler.com
Posted on 12/04/2012 6:02 AM | Updated 12/04/2012 8:47 AM
colorado state
201212040000 7.7 126 110
Pretty impressive for a TC that's been over land this long, particularly given elevation.
Zilch for my area. Thanks, negative nancy.
Ha ha, I have like a 50-60% chance of a White Christmas :P
Good for you.
Link
Here in Seattle the weather is typical, 50F and raining. Which I'm thankful for given the substantial lack of rain throughout most of the country, and it's too warm to snow =) I for one am very glad to see Seattle that will not have a white Christmas this year. (which is almost a given being that we only have a 7-8% chance for a white Christmas each year)
It is good for me.
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