Category 5 Super Typhoon Bopha bearing down on the Philippines
Extremely dangerous Typhoon Bopha is bearing down on the Philippine island of Mindanao as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Bopha completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Sunday and has been steadily intensifying today, and will make landfall on Mindanao in the early morning on Tuesday local time. Mindanao rarely gets hit by typhoons, since the island is too close to the Equator, and the infrastructure of Mindanao is not prepared to handle heavy typhoon rains as well as the more typhoon-prone northern islands. Bopha is potentially a catastrophic storm for Mindanao. The typhoon is following a similar track to last year's Tropical Storm Washi, which hit Mindanao on December 16, 2011 with 60 mph winds and torrential rains. Washi triggered devastating flooding that killed 1268 people. Washi was merely a tropical storm, and Bopha is likely to hit at Category 4 or 5 strength, making it the strongest typhoon ever recorded in Mindanao.
Figure 1. Super Typhoon Bopha at 01:45 UTC on December 2, 2012. At the time, Bopha had top sustained winds of 150 mph, as was just below its peak intensity of 155 mph, which it reached from 06 - 12 UTC on December 2. Image credit: NASA.
Bopha: the 2nd most southerly typhoon on record
Bopha became a tropical depression unusually close to the Equator, at 3.6°N latitude. Tropical cyclones rarely form so close to the Equator, because they cannot leverage the Earth's rotation to get themselves spinning. According to hurricane expert Dr. Paul Roundy of SUNY Albany, Bopha got its spin from a large-scale atmospheric wave called a mixed Rossby gravity wave. Because of the lack of atmospheric spin so close to the Equator, it took Bopha over four days to intensify into a typhoon, and it stayed a relatively small storm. Bopha became the 2nd most southerly typhoon ever recorded in the Western Pacific at 06 GMT on November 30, when the storm was at 3.8°N latitude. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center lists Typhoon Vamei of 2001 as the most southerly typhoon on record, at 1.5°N. However, other meteorological agencies do not credit Vamei with reaching typhoon strength, so this record is disputed. The previous most southerly typhoon was Typhoon Kate of 14 - 25 October 1970, which reached typhoon intensity at 4.3°N, 137.4°E. Bopha continued intensifying over the weekend, becoming the second most southerly super typhoon ever recorded (150 mph winds) at 00 GMT on December 1, when it was at 6.1°N latitude. The record most southerly super typhoon was Kate, which reached super typhoon intensity at 6.0°N, 126.3°E. Kate struck the Philippine island of Mindanao as a Category 4 storm, killing 631 people. Bopha further intensified into a Category 5 typhoon on Monday at 7.4°N latitude, becoming the second most southerly Category 5 typhoon on record, next to Typhoon Louise of 1964, which was a Category 5 storm at 7.3°N. According to NOAA's Coastal Services Center, there have been only 4 previous typhoons of at least Category 4 strength to track within 200 nautical miles of Mindanao Island, dating back to 1945: Mike ("Ruping" ) in 1990, Ike ("Nitang") in 1984, Kate ("Titang") in 1970, and Louise ("Ining" ) in 1964.
Figure 2. Tracks of all Category 4 typhoons to affect the southern Philippine Island of Mindanao since 1945. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
The closest a tropical cyclone has ever been to the Equator is 0.7°N, by Tropical Cyclone Agni in the North Indian Ocean in November 2004. Agni got counter-clockwise spin from the presence of the summer monsoon circulation in the Indian Ocean. The closest a Western Pacific tropical cyclone has been to the Equator is 1.4°N latitude, by Tropical Storm Vamei on December 27, 2001. Vamei hit Singapore after Christmas in 2001, at a latitude of 1.5°N.
Figure 3. This MET-5 visible satellite image taken at 0400 UTC November 28, 2004, shows Agni as a developing tropical storm just north of the Equator in the Indian Ocean. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 — Blog Index
Holy moly! That'd be weird as heck!
So, only a cat 2 hurricane at landfall? Never seen a cat 5 weaken so quickly.
Authorities shut down schools and government offices in the regions where the potential supertyphoon was likely to hit early this morning. Ferry boat operators and fishermen were told to stay ashore and civil defense units and the Philippine Coast Guard went on full alert ahead of the storm’s onslaught.
The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said close to 2,000 passengers had been stranded in nine seaports.
The NDRRMC said 54 “roll-on, roll-off” cargo ships and 25 other smaller sea vessels were stopped from leaving ports in the National Capital Region, Central Visayas, Eastern Visayas and Northern Mindanao.
The council said the Department of Social Welfare and Development had allocated P42.35 million worth of relief goods for affected provinces, including P3.7 million in stand-by funds. Prepacked food items were ready to be distributed to some 10,000 families in Mindanao, the agency said.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) hoisted Storm Signal No. 3 Monday over Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Siargao Island, Dinagat Island, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, and Davao Oriental, warning of wind blasts between 100 and 185 kph in the next 18 hours.
“The weather is good right now but we keep advising local governments not to be complacent because this is going to get worse,” said Olive Luces, the regional director of the Office of Civil Defense in the Caraga region.
“Everyone is hoping that it won’t be that fierce,” said Social Welfare Secretary Corazon Soliman after officials briefed President Aquino in Malacañang on disaster relief preparations.
‘Let’s pray’
Pablo (international name: “Bopha”) was spotted at 10 p.m. Monday in the Pacific 230 km southeast of Hinatuan City in Surigao del Sur. It was moving westward at 26 kph and was expected in Surigao del Sur Tuesday morning.
Signal No. 3 was raised in Surigao del Norte incl. Siargao, Surigao del Sur, Dinagat Province, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Bukidnon, Davao Oriental, Compostela Valley, North Cotabato, Lanao del Sur, Lanao del Norte and Davao del Norte incl. Samal Is.
Storm Signal No. 2 was hoisted over Southern Leyte, Bohol, Cebu incl. Camotes Is, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Siquijor, Misamis Occidental, Davao del Sur, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Sultan Kudarat and Maguindanao.
Eastern Samar, Western Samar, Leyte incl. Biliran, Aklan, Capiz, Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, Zamboanga Sibugay, Basilan, Sarangani and South Cotabato were under Storm Signal No. 1.
“Let’s pray that, while this storm is expected to be stronger than ‘Sendong,’ we’ll be spared from a severe calamity,” Vice President Jejomar Binay said.
Tropical Storm “Sendong” struck Northern Mindanao a year ago, leaving more than 1,500 people dead.
Rear Adm. Luis Tuason Jr., officer in charge of the Philippine Coast Guard, placed the agency’s units to “brace up for the coming onslaught.”
Tuason warned ferry operators and fishermen against putting out to sea in the areas on the path of the typhoon.
Environment Secretary Ramon Paje ordered key field officials of his department to link up with local disaster management councils and issue geohazard advisories, saying that he expected the typhoon “to dump an unusual large volume of rainfall, especially in Mindanao.
Paje said the advisories should include relocation sites and “must point susceptibility levels of areas to landslides, floods, flash floods and debris accumulation zones, and must include warnings.”
Red alert
“All disaster agencies were placed on red alert ahead of the full brunt of Typhoon Pablo,” Blanche Gobenchiong, civil defense regional director, told the Philippine Daily Inquirer.
Gobenchiong said maritime operations all over the region particularly at the Butuan, Surigao and Dinagat ports had been suspended.
Local officials were not taking chances, apparently heeding the lesson of Supertyphoon “Nitang” (international name: “Ike”) in 1984. Packing winds of 220 kph, Nitang killed some 1,300 people in Surigao del Norte.
In Hinatuan and the capital town of Tandag in Surigao del Sur, forced evacuation was implemented in six coastal villages.
Surigao City Mayor Ernesto Matugas suspended classes in all levels and port operations and ferry boat trips in and out of the city were canceled. Gymnasiums in the area were already crammed with evacuees Monday.
Butuan City Mayor Ferdinand Amante said disaster rescue and relief personnel were on stand by and evacuation sites had been readied.
Dinagat Island Gov. Glenda Ecleo shut down schools and government offices Monday morning, while the Philippine Coast Guard ordered a no-sailing, no-fishing policy this noon in all areas of Caraga.
In Agusan del Sur, residents in low-lying and landslide-prone areas were told to evacuate. Gov. Adolf Edward Plaza directed the 14 town mayors of the province to designate evacuation centers. Classes were also suspended in San Francisco town at noon Monday.
Church in relief efforts
In Cagayan de Oro City, Archbishop Antonio Ledesma on Monday called for a briefing with lead government agencies. The Church will act as a coordinating body for the local government of Misamis Oriental and the city.
Mayor Vicente Emano ordered code blue, which means people living near rivers, streams, slopes and other disaster-prone areas in Cagayan de Oro should move to their barangay-designated evacuation areas. Two dump trucks were transporting residents to evacuation centers yesterday morning.
The Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council of Surigao del Norte has passed a resolution declaring forced evacuation for residents living in identified “high risk” areas all over the province.
Compostela Valley Gov. Arturo Uy said he ordered mining communities as early as Saturday to move to safer ground as they were most vulnerable to landslides. Uy, who was attending a peace and order meeting in Davao City, said he had asked people living near riverbanks to evacuate.
Davao del Norte Gov. Rodolfo del Rosario said over 100 volunteers were on standby in the province.
“I have asked the disaster office to issue regular updates for us to keep ourselves abreast of the status of the storm and be aware of its effects, so that we can immediately come to the aid of neighboring communities,” said Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte.
Gov. Mujiv Hataman said the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao was also bracing for the typhoon.
Hataman said his office would monitor water levels in catch basins where floodwaters from Bukidnon, North Cotabato and South Cotabato drain in Lanao or Cotabato City.
Authorities in the Visayas and the Bicol region also geared up for Pablo’s onslaught. With reports from TJ Burgonio, Tarra Quismundo, Jerry Esplanada in Manila; and Danilo V. Adorador III, Chris V. Panganiban, Cai Panlilio, Germelina Lacorte, Julie S. Alipala, Frinston Lim, Bobby Lagsa, Inquirer Mindanao; Jani Arnaiz, Joey Gabieta, Jhunnex Napallacan, Carmel Loise Matus, Carla Gomez and Nestor Burgos, Inquirer Visayas; and Mar S. Arguelles, Inquirer Southern Luzon
Click image for loop.
High-ResLoop (CIMSS), found by twitter:
Scott Bachmeier @CIMSS_Satellite
MTSAT-1R InfraRed images of Super Typhoon Bopha making landfall in the Philippines
no, this is a poor wind speed estimate from PAGASA. The intensity based on satellite imagery was still around 140-150 knots (1 min)
Probably not.
something is obviously wrong with someone's data. There's been a tremendous amount of confusion from all different agencies giving vastly different data on the storm.
They are using 10 minute averages, but those numbers aren't even close to correct even for 10 minute averages. And those are the same numbers they were using several hours ago, when Bopha was a NOAA estimated a 155kts storm, and a Colorado State estimated 140kts.
If that landfall intensity is true, it would be a good thing, but it means the ADT probably needs to be trashed or something, because it makes no sense at all.
ADT says T 6.7 as of a few minutes ago, which would still be 150mph 1 minute sustained with 180mph gusts, which in kph that is 240kph sustained and 288kph gusts respectively.
This is like a category and a half stronger than they are reporting it.
So clearly someone's data is horribly wrong.
A potential disaster is unfolding as Super Typhoon Bopha makes landfall on the Philippines island of Mindanao. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/typhoon -bopha-danger-to-southe/2293941
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #65
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
6:00 AM JST December 4 2012
=======================================
SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon Overland Mindanao
At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (930 hPa) located at 7.7N 126.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 16 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: Overland
Storm Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.8N 121.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Mindanao (Philippines)
45 HRS: 11.6N 118.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
69 HRS: 12.9N 117.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
__________________________
HPC rainfall reports
...CALIFORNIA...
BRANDY CREEK (SHASTA) 23.48
STERLING CITY (FEATHER) 21.24
SIMS 17.90
PETROLIA 7.4 SE 17.50
NORTH COAST CAMP SIX 16.64
BRIDGEVILLE 5.2 ENE 15.72
OAK MOUNTAIN 15.16
MIRANDA 4.1 SW 14.98
CAZADERO 6.9 WNW 14.45
KINGVALE 1.3 WSW 14.37
LOS GATOS 6.1 S 13.89
BLUE CANYON 13.41
REDWAY 1.8 WSW 13.39
BRANDY CRK 12.60
SECRET TOWN 12.55
BEALE AFB/MARYSVILLE 9.55
SAN FRANCISCO INTL AIRPORT 4.09
graphic from Dec 1
50 to 70mph gusts
The rain has also started to pick up again.
Here is some info on Davao, closer to where the eye is.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davao_Region
Looks like about 1/2 million people or so in direct hit zone.
More that 4 million in the city further south.
Boro
Good points. The NHC's criteria is one minute sustained. However, the criteria varies from region to region. For example, I think I read somewhere that China's criteria is two minutes sustained and some regions have even longer periods. So, that might be the issue.
hopefully everyone is safe there
Asian countries
---------------
northeast China uses 2mins
Korea uses 10min
Japan uses 10min
Philippines uses 10min
southern China uses 10min
Taiwan uses 10min
Thailand uses 10min
Indonesia uses 10min
south Pacific agencies uses 10 min
south Indian Ocean agencies also uses 10 min
northern Indian Ocean uses 3 min
There's still a pocket of wild monkeys near the Dania cutoff canal near Port Everglades . They can carry some bad diseases , but humans still feed them .
I hope that isn't a bad sign.
Edited.
estimated between 920-930 millibars (hectopascal) according to the official RSMC in the west pacific basin
Yes... and as amazing that this storm was and is, sad that body bags will be needed. Horrible to have to go through it.... times are a changing regarding our weather and storms.
I guess it could have weakened that much. It was a smaller storm than most we're used to tracking in the W. Pac.
The name Bopha, pronounced boe-fa, originates from Cambodia and means blossom or flower.
I myself was wondering the same and didn't have clue how to say the name, do now...
They are talking about Davao area now.
Boro
Thanks a lot for your updates and stay safe!
Just wait man and don't write people off yet.
Ironically, last time a cat 5 hit the Philippines there were zero deaths, even though a mere TS Washi killed like 1,200.
Maybe people just don't take a TS seriously so didn't prepare. Maybe they got the message and will be safer because of it.
pressure never got lower then 920 in the all the advisories I looked at for the last 12 hours.
140 mph gust in nevada???
NOAA doesn't over-estimate that badly.
It wasn't my estimate.
Besides even Colorado State had it at 140kts on their latest update.
There's no way they were off by 30 to 45mb in their estimate.
Ok.
Then what is this?
Why did it repeatedly have T number 7.5 with a raw number as high as 7.6?
Given the basin, that's consistent with a sub-900mb storm...
Or maybe a slow moving tropical storm is more dangerous than a fast moving major hurricane because the tropoical storm dumps far more rain, and causes catastrophic flooding and landslides.
Source
2012DEC03 113000 7.3 891.7/ +5.1 /149.0 7.3 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 0.16 -81.43 EYE 12 IR 7.46 -128.84 COMBO
2012DEC03 123000 7.3 891.7/ +5.1 /149.0 7.3 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -2.41 -82.22 EYE 14 IR 7.50 -128.45 COMBO
2012DEC03 125700 7.4 887.8/ +5.1 /152.0 7.4 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 5.47 -81.86 EYE 13 IR 7.54 -128.34 COMBO
2012DEC03 133000 7.4 887.9/ +5.1 /152.0 7.4 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -0.61 -81.64 EYE 14 IR 7.48 -128.21 COMBO
2012DEC03 135700 7.5 884.1/ +5.1 /155.0 7.5 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 6.18 -81.74 EYE 14 IR 7.51 -128.10 COMBO
2012DEC03 143000 7.5 884.1/ +5.1 /155.0 7.5 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 11.62 -81.20 EYE 14 IR 7.45 -127.97 COMBO
2012DEC03 145700 7.5 884.1/ +5.1 /155.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 6.65 -80.59 EYE 16 IR 7.48 -127.87 COMBO
2012DEC03 153000 7.5 884.0/ +5.1 /155.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 11.96 -80.03 EYE 16 IR 7.52 -127.74 COMBO
2012DEC03 155700 7.5 884.1/ +5.1 /155.0 7.5 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 8.29 -79.36 EYE 17 IR 7.45 -127.63 COMBO
2012DEC03 163000 7.5 884.1/ +5.1 /155.0 7.4 7.3 7.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF 8.06 -78.41 EYE 17 IR 7.49 -127.50 COMBO
2012DEC03 165700 7.5 884.1/ +5.1 /155.0 7.4 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF 8.17 -78.05 EYE 16 IR 7.52 -127.39 COMBO
2012DEC03 171300 7.5 884.0/ +5.1 /155.0 7.3 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF 4.98 -78.54 EYE 16 IR 7.53 -127.33 COMBO
2012DEC03 173000 7.5 884.0/ +5.0 /155.0 7.3 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF 11.18 -78.89 EYE 15 IR 7.55 -127.26 COMBO
2012DEC03 183000 7.5 884.0/ +5.0 /155.0 7.3 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF 4.13 -79.88 EYE -99 IR 7.57 -127.05 COMBO
2012DEC03 185700 7.5 884.0/ +5.0 /155.0 7.2 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF -14.27 -79.50 EYE 15 IR 7.60 -126.94 COMBO
2012DEC03 193000 7.5 884.0/ +5.0 /155.0 7.2 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT ON FLG -15.02 -78.95 EYE 13 IR 7.63 -126.80 COMBO
2012DEC03 195700 7.5 884.0/ +5.0 /155.0 7.1 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT ON FLG -34.62 -78.02 EYE 9 IR 7.67 -126.69 SPRL
2012DEC03 203000 7.5 884.0/ +5.0 /155.0 6.9 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT ON FLG -49.03 -77.22 EYE -99 IR 7.71 -126.55 SPRL
2012DEC03 205700 7.5 884.0/ +5.0 /155.0 6.7 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT ON FLG -36.17 -77.52 EYE/P -99 IR 7.65 -126.53 SPRL
2012DEC03 213000 7.5 884.0/ +5.0 /155.0 6.7 6.8 4.8 0.7T/6hr ON FLG -69.31 -76.99 UNIFRM N/A 7.69 -126.40 SPRL
from what I remember those are always predetermine pressures readings for each number of the Dvorak scale.
Take heart. WVU gets to play in the Toilet ... oops, I mean New Era Pin Stripe Bowl
(whatever that is). At least they get to play their old rival Syracuse.
It was freakishly warm here today at 69 degrees, and may be 70 tomorrow. Who needs to move south at this rate?
Finally some light.
How's this?
Source
Mesoscal discussion 2129
It wasn't me...
A NASA Expedition 34 crew member aboard the International Space Station took this photo of Typhoon Pablo on December 2, 2012
I would like to say that's unbelievable but it seems to more the norm lately.
Viewing: 301 - 351
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 — Blog Index