Category 5 Super Typhoon Bopha bearing down on the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:41 PM GMT on December 03, 2012

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Extremely dangerous Typhoon Bopha is bearing down on the Philippine island of Mindanao as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Bopha completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Sunday and has been steadily intensifying today, and will make landfall on Mindanao in the early morning on Tuesday local time. Mindanao rarely gets hit by typhoons, since the island is too close to the Equator, and the infrastructure of Mindanao is not prepared to handle heavy typhoon rains as well as the more typhoon-prone northern islands. Bopha is potentially a catastrophic storm for Mindanao. The typhoon is following a similar track to last year's Tropical Storm Washi, which hit Mindanao on December 16, 2011 with 60 mph winds and torrential rains. Washi triggered devastating flooding that killed 1268 people. Washi was merely a tropical storm, and Bopha is likely to hit at Category 4 or 5 strength, making it the strongest typhoon ever recorded in Mindanao.


Figure 1. Super Typhoon Bopha at 01:45 UTC on December 2, 2012. At the time, Bopha had top sustained winds of 150 mph, as was just below its peak intensity of 155 mph, which it reached from 06 - 12 UTC on December 2. Image credit: NASA.

Bopha: the 2nd most southerly typhoon on record
Bopha became a tropical depression unusually close to the Equator, at 3.6°N latitude. Tropical cyclones rarely form so close to the Equator, because they cannot leverage the Earth's rotation to get themselves spinning. According to hurricane expert Dr. Paul Roundy of SUNY Albany, Bopha got its spin from a large-scale atmospheric wave called a mixed Rossby gravity wave. Because of the lack of atmospheric spin so close to the Equator, it took Bopha over four days to intensify into a typhoon, and it stayed a relatively small storm. Bopha became the 2nd most southerly typhoon ever recorded in the Western Pacific at 06 GMT on November 30, when the storm was at 3.8°N latitude. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center lists Typhoon Vamei of 2001 as the most southerly typhoon on record, at 1.5°N. However, other meteorological agencies do not credit Vamei with reaching typhoon strength, so this record is disputed. The previous most southerly typhoon was Typhoon Kate of 14 - 25 October 1970, which reached typhoon intensity at 4.3°N, 137.4°E. Bopha continued intensifying over the weekend, becoming the second most southerly super typhoon ever recorded (150 mph winds) at 00 GMT on December 1, when it was at 6.1°N latitude. The record most southerly super typhoon was Kate, which reached super typhoon intensity at 6.0°N, 126.3°E. Kate struck the Philippine island of Mindanao as a Category 4 storm, killing 631 people. Bopha further intensified into a Category 5 typhoon on Monday at 7.4°N latitude, becoming the second most southerly Category 5 typhoon on record, next to Typhoon Louise of 1964, which was a Category 5 storm at 7.3°N. According to NOAA's Coastal Services Center, there have been only 4 previous typhoons of at least Category 4 strength to track within 200 nautical miles of Mindanao Island, dating back to 1945: Mike ("Ruping" ) in 1990, Ike ("Nitang") in 1984, Kate ("Titang") in 1970, and Louise ("Ining" ) in 1964.


Figure 2. Tracks of all Category 4 typhoons to affect the southern Philippine Island of Mindanao since 1945. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

The closest a tropical cyclone has ever been to the Equator is 0.7°N, by Tropical Cyclone Agni in the North Indian Ocean in November 2004. Agni got counter-clockwise spin from the presence of the summer monsoon circulation in the Indian Ocean. The closest a Western Pacific tropical cyclone has been to the Equator is 1.4°N latitude, by Tropical Storm Vamei on December 27, 2001. Vamei hit Singapore after Christmas in 2001, at a latitude of 1.5°N.


Figure 3. This MET-5 visible satellite image taken at 0400 UTC November 28, 2004, shows Agni as a developing tropical storm just north of the Equator in the Indian Ocean. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Great microwave pass hit Bopha just as it was coming ashore:



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Quoting TomTaylor:
hm, yeah lets see

I'll take Kate Upton, Bar Refaeli, and all the Victoria's Secret models.


Oh yes, I can't agree more sir!
Member Since: October 30, 2012 Posts: 1 Comments: 83
Quoting nymore:
what was the highest T number?

Advanced Dvorak Technique (v7.2.3) using
JTWC forecasts Storm History
2012DEC03 135700 7.5 884.1/ 5.1 /155.0 7.5 7.6 7.6
2012DEC03 143000 7.5 884.1/ 5.1 /155.0 7.5 7.6 7.6

Tokyo forecasts Storm History

2012DEC03 135700 7.5 884.1/ 5.1 /155.0 7.5 7.6 7.6
2012DEC03 143000 7.5 884.1/ 5.1 /155.0 7.5 7.6 7.6
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Off of the tropics.... There is a wildfire that is 20% contained headed for a small town in Colorado called Estes Park and the town may be evacuated... Its called The Fern Lake Fire
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Great microwave pass hit Bopha just as it was coming ashore:

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No Aussie what was the highest T number it ever had
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Quoting nymore:
what was the highest T number?


TXPQ27 KNES 032138
TCSWNP

A. 26W (BOPHA)

B. 03/2030Z

C. 7.7N

D. 126.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/7.5/W1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...BOPHA IS ON THE COAST AT CLASSIFICATION TIME AND IS MAKING
LANDFALL AT OR NEAR PEAK INTENSITY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME WEAKENING IN
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE EYE TEMPERATURE
HAS COOLED TO MG. BUT EYE IS STILL WELL DEFINED...SYMMETRIC AND 20KM IN
DIAMETER. COLD CLOUD SHIELD IS QUITE EXPANSIVE WITH W CLOUD TOPS OVER 3
DEGREES WIDE. W SURROUNDING TEMP WITH MG EYE GIVES CF OF 6.0. .5 ADDED
FOR BANDING GIVES DT=6.5. MET=6.5 BASED ON SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND FROM
24 HOURS PREVIOUS. PT AGREES. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI
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My thoughts go out to those in the Philippines and I hope that maybe an early Christmas Miracle is in store for the people there
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what was the highest T number?
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Largo.......18 days left.Hmmm. Guess I need to start my bucket list.
1. Brad Pitt
2. David Beckham
3. Prince Harry
4. And an hour with Neapolitan to express myself
hm, yeah lets see

I'll take Kate Upton, Bar Refaeli, and all the Victoria's Secret models.
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The Sun is up out there:



This will very likely be the second year in a row that the globe's deadliest cyclone occurred in December, in almost exactly the same area. Very sad. As Tom said, I love weather, but this just sucks.
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Quoting plutorising:

what does this mean?


It means we will likely be innundated by a ton of DERP any minute now. ;)
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375. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
hmm thought the Atlantic had the deeper depression
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47054
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


7.5 908.9 155.0

most of the NOAA estimated pressure is based on cyclones that are within in the Atlantic ocean. Unless that changed in the years.

That's an even stronger case for a sub-900 millibar system because West Pacific cyclones have a much lower pressure than those in the Atlantic.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
373. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting AussieStorm:

yes, we know someone is wrong. It happens where there is so many different agencies in the one basin. Even PAGASA is wrong in there wind estimates. no point hitting your head against a wall looking for answers that well probably never find out.


ya I agree. The pressure that PAGASA had 2-3 hours before landfall was 948 hPa by shipping warnings

ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR EIGHT HECTOPASCALS
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47054
As much as I love the weather, this is the kind of thing I absolutely hate to see




Thoughts go out to those in the Philippines...hopefully this doesn't turn out as badly as it looks.
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Not strong rotation on this tornado warned storm, but a funnel cloud/brief touchdown can't be ruled out:

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370. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting RTSplayer:


Because I know NOAA isn't off by 45mb dude.

There's just no way. They'd have to be stoned (as in on drugs) or something.


7.5 908.9 155.0

most of the NOAA estimated pressure is based on cyclones that are within in the Atlantic ocean. Unless that changed in the years.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47054
Bopha was probably anywhere between 135 and 145kts at landfall.

03/2030 UTC 7.7N 126.6E T6.5/7.5 BOPHA -- West Pacific
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Because I know NOAA isn't off by 45mb dude.

There's just no way. They'd have to be stoned (as in on drugs) or something.

yes, we know someone is wrong. It happens where there is so many different agencies in the one basin. Even PAGASA is wrong in there wind estimates. no point hitting your head against a wall looking for answers that well probably never find out.
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Quoting VaStormGuy:
This blog was just posted to reddit on r/weather. Who did it?

what does this mean?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
Quoting AussieStorm:

So what's all the angst about knowing what pressure Bopha had at landfall then. We have estimates but no exacts.


Because I know NOAA isn't off by 45mb dude.

There's just no way. They'd have to be stoned (as in on drugs) or something.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
502 PM CST MON DEC 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
OGLE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 530 PM CST

* AT 500 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR POLO...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT
MORRIS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MOUNT MORRIS AROUND 510 PM.
BYRON AROUND 520 PM.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED...
OGLE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...WHITE PINES STATE PARK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS... MOVE
TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
364. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
At 6:00AM 4/DEC/2012, the eye of Typhoon #PabloPH was located @ 80km south of Hinatuan

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47054
Quoting AussieStorm:

geez dude, why did you quote that again... I did mention it in my comment... 884.0mb

I misread your comment, nevermind.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

NOAA's SSD Dvorak.

2012DEC03 135700 7.5 884.1/ 5.1 /155.0 7.5 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 6.18 -81.74 EYE 14 IR 7.51 -128.13 COMBO
2012DEC03 143000 7.5 884.1/ 5.1 /155.0 7.5 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 11.62 -81.12 EYE 14 IR 7.50 -128.01 COMBO
2012DEC03 145700 7.5 884.0/ 5.1 /155.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 6.65 -80.47 EYE 16 IR 7.53 -127.89 COMBO
2012DEC03 153000 7.5 884.1/ 5.1 /155.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 11.96 -79.77 EYE 16 IR 7.46 -127.75 COMBO
2012DEC03 155700 7.5 884.1/ 5.1 /155.0 7.5 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 8.29 -79.46 EYE 17 IR 7.49 -127.64 COMBO
2012DEC03 163000 7.5 884.0/ 5.1 /155.0 7.4 7.3 7.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF 8.06 -78.51 EYE 17 IR 7.53 -127.50 COMBO
2012DEC03 165700 7.5 884.0/ 5.0 /155.0 7.4 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF 8.17 -78.25 EYE 16 IR 7.56 -127.39 COMBO
2012DEC03 171300 7.5 884.0/ 5.0 /155.0 7.3 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF 4.98 -78.09 EYE 16 IR 7.57 -127.32 COMBO
2012DEC03 173000 7.5 884.0/ 5.0 /155.0 7.3 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF 11.18 -78.88 EYE 15 IR 7.59 -127.25 COMBO
2012DEC03 183000 7.5 884.0/ 5.0 /155.0 7.3 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF 4.13 -80.47 EYE 15 IR 7.56 -127.00 COMBO
2012DEC03 185700 7.5 884.0/ 5.0 /155.0 7.2 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF -14.27 -79.44 EYE 15 IR 7.59 -126.89 COMBO
2012DEC03 193000 7.5 884.0/ 5.0 /155.0 7.2 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF -15.02 -78.85 EYE -99 IR 7.63 -126.85 COMBO
2012DEC03 195700 7.5 884.0/ 5.0 /155.0 7.1 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT ON FLG -34.62 -77.93 EYE -99 IR 7.66 -126.74 SPRL
2012DEC03 203000 7.5 884.0/ 5.0 /155.0 6.9 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT ON FLG -49.03 -77.25 EYE -99 IR 7.69 -126.58 SPRL
2012DEC03 205700 7.5 884.0/ 5.0 /155.0 6.7 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT ON FLG -36.17 -77.29 EYE/P -99 IR 7.72 -126.47 SPRL
2012DEC03 213000 7.5 884.0/ 5.0 /155.0 6.7 6.8 4.8 0.7T/6hr ON FLG -69.31 -76.69 UNIFRM N/A 7.75 -126.32 SPRL

geez dude, why did you post that again... I did mention it in my comment... 884.0mb
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Quoting RTSplayer:


The eye was only a little larger than Wilma's at peak intensity. It could miss a barometer, or destroy a weather station before it actually passed over it, and you'd never know the actual pressure.

An satellite estimate is probably all anyone is actually going to get.

So what's all the angst about knowing what pressure Bopha had at landfall then. We have estimates but no exacts.
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360. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting RTSplayer:


How's this?



Maybe around 915 hPa if the JMA raised their advisory to 110 knots to match the Dvorak intensity that they missed.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47054
Quoting AussieStorm:

That says 902mb I have not see any reading as low as you quoted of 884.0mb.


Red Marker reading
Sison, Surigao del Norte
Rain in the last 15 mins (mm/15mins)22.098
Rain in the last hour (mm/hour) 38.354

NOAA's SSD Dvorak.

2012DEC03 135700 7.5 884.1
2012DEC03 143000 7.5 884.1
2012DEC03 145700 7.5 884.0
2012DEC03 153000 7.5 884.1
2012DEC03 155700 7.5 884.1
2012DEC03 163000 7.5 884.0
2012DEC03 165700 7.5 884.0
2012DEC03 171300 7.5 884.0
2012DEC03 173000 7.5 884.0
2012DEC03 183000 7.5 884.0
2012DEC03 185700 7.5 884.0
2012DEC03 193000 7.5 884.0
2012DEC03 195700 7.5 884.0
2012DEC03 203000 7.5 884.0
2012DEC03 205700 7.5 884.0
2012DEC03 213000 7.5 884.0
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
'Pablo' a Category 5 supertyphoon: US experts

'Pablo' could be strongest typhoon in Mindanao's history

MANILA, Philippines (UPDATED) - Packing maximum sustained winds of 140 knots (259 kilometers per hour), "Pablo" (international name Bopha) has reached supertyphoon status comparable to a Category 5 cyclone in the Western hemisphere, American meteorologists said Tuesday.

The tropical cyclone has rapidly intensified over the last 12 hours in the waters off the eastern Philippines, the US Navy and Air Force's Joint Typhoon Watch Center (JTWC) said in its latest advisory.

Pablo, which also has gusts reaching 170 knots (314kph), will only weaken after it makes landfall in the southern Philippines and cuts a swath through Central Mindanao, the JTWC said.

"The current intensity of 140 knots is based on congruent Dvorak estimates from PGTW (Guam Typhoon Warning Center), RJTD [Japan Meteorological Agency], and KNES, all of which support the recent rapid intensification and is additionally supported by a recent jump in the latest CIMMS satcon estimate of 141 knots," the Hawaii-based weather task force said.

Pablo's track similar to Sendong's

Other foreign weather agencies and meteorologists have been tracking Pablo for days.

Dr. Jeff Masters, co-founder of Michigan-based commercial weather forecasting service Weather Underground, said the typhoon is following a similar track to last year's Tropical Storm Washi (Sendong), which hit Mindanao on December 16, 2011 and killed more than 1,200 people.

"Bopha is potentially a catastrophic storm for Mindanao," he said. "Mindanao rarely gets hit by typhoons, since the island is too close to the Equator, and the infrastructure of Mindanao is not prepared to handle heavy typhoon rains as well as the more typhoon-prone northern islands."

"Washi was merely a tropical storm, and Bopha is likely to hit at Category 4 or 5 strength, making it the strongest typhoon ever recorded in Mindanao," he warned in his blog.

"Bopha became a tropical depression unusually close to the Equator, at 3.6N latitude. Tropical cyclones rarely form so close to the Equator, because they cannot leverage the Earth's rotation to get themselves spinning," he said.

Masters added that Pablo, which further intensified into a Category 5 typhoon on Monday at 7.4N latitude, is the most southerly typhoon on record.
According to him, the previous most southerly typhoon was Titang (international name Kate), which struck Mindanao as a Category 4 storm in 1970. Titang killed at least 631 people.

"According to NOAA's Coastal Services Center, there have been only 4 previous typhoons of at least Category 4 strength to track within 200 nautical miles of Mindanao Island, dating back to 1945: Mike ("Ruping" ) in 1990, Ike ("Nitang") in 1984, Kate ("Titang") in 1970, and Louise ("Ining" ) in 1964," Masters added.

NASA: Pablo also bringing heavy rainfall

Two NASA satellites gathered data as they passed over Pablo on December 2, gathering data for forecasters, the US space agency said.

"Since Dec. 2, Bopha's maximum sustained winds have fluctuated up and down from its previous high of 155 mph and today, Dec. 3, the storm has reached its strongest point so far as a Category 5 typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale with sustained winds of 161 mph. Warnings are up for the Philippines as Bopha approaches," it added.

NASA's Terra satellite captured a visible image of Bopha. Meanwhile, its Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite captured rainfall rates, identified areas of heavy rainfall, and measured cloud heights.

The data gathered and analyzed showed areas of heavy rainfall, NASA said. "The heaviest rain was falling at a rate of more than 2 inches (50 mm) per hour."

As much as 80mm/hr of rain was also monitored falling in the eye of the typhoon and in intense rain bands spiraling around it, according to the space agency.

To compare, Sendong last year poured rainfall of over 50mm/hr (~2 inches) while Ondoy dumped 56.83 mm/hr of rainfall on Metro Manila in September 2009.

Pablo reached reached Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson Scale for the first time on December 3, NASA said.

"Over the last several days it peaked at a powerful Category 4 typhoon. On Dec. 3 at 1500 UTC (10 a.m. EST, U.S.), Bopha had regained Super Typhoon status as maximum sustained winds increased to 140 knots (161 mph/259 kph)," it added. "Infrared satellite imagery shows a well-developed, intense system that has a 9 nautical-mile (10.3 mile/16.6 km) wide eye."


16 areas under storm signal no. 3

State weather bureau PAGASA, in its latest weather advisory on Pablo, classifies it still as a typhoon.

PAGASA said its readings show that Pablo is packing maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 210 kph.

Under the Philippine agency's intensity category, a tropical cyclone only becomes a supertyphoon if it reaches maximum sustained winds greater than 200 kph.

Pablo, which has rainfall amount from 15 to 30 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within its 600-kilometer diameter, was projected to make landfall near Davao Oriental, Surigao del Sur early Tuesday morning.

It was just 50km off the eastern coast of Davao Oriental as of 3 a.m. Tuesday.

Public storm warning signal number 3 has been raised over Bukidnon, Davao Oriental, Compostela Valley, North Cotabato, Lanao del Sur, Lanao del Norte, Davao del Norte, Samal Island, Surigao del Norte, Siargao, Surigao del Sur, Dinagat, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Misamis Oriental and Camiguin as the cyclone nears land, PAGASA said in its 11 p.m. advisory Monday.

Signal No. 2 has also been raised over the following areas:

Davao del Sur
Zamboanga del Norte
Zamboanga del Sur
Sultan Kudarat
Maguindanao
Southern Leyte
Bohol
Cebu
Camotes Island
Negros Oriental
Negros Occidental
Siquijor
Misamis Occidental

The following areas are under Signal No. 1:

Antique
Iloilo
Guimaras
Zamboanga Sibugay
Basilan
Sarangani
South Cotabato
Palawan
Calamian Islands
Eastern Samar
Western Samar
Leyte,
Biliran
Aklan
Capiz
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Quoting AussieStorm:

That says 902mb I have not see any reading as low as you quoted of 884.0mb.


Red Marker reading
Sison, Surigao del Norte
Rain in the last 15 mins (mm/15mins)22.098
Rain in the last hour (mm/hour) 38.354


The eye was only a little larger than Wilma's at peak intensity. It could miss a barometer, or destroy a weather station before it actually passed over it, and you'd never know the actual pressure.

An satellite estimate is probably all anyone is actually going to get.
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Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Met Office Storms @metofficestorms 35m

Typhoon #Bopha made landfall at ~2030GMT at Bangai Point, Mindanao, Philippines. Peak winds around the eye estimated to be near 160 mph.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Quoting RTSplayer:


How's this?


That says 902mb I have not see any reading as low as you quoted of 884.0mb.


Red Marker reading
Sison, Surigao del Norte
Rain in the last 15 mins (mm/15mins)22.098
Rain in the last hour (mm/hour) 38.354
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Quoting AussieStorm:

A NASA Expedition 34 crew member aboard the International Space Station took this photo of Typhoon Pablo on December 2, 2012

Wow.... Potent looking
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Source
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 63 Comments: 6723
Quoting BahaHurican:
People r now coming to Nassau because it's cooler here in December..... amazing thought.


I would like to say that's unbelievable but it seems to more the norm lately.
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A NASA Expedition 34 crew member aboard the International Space Station took this photo of Typhoon Pablo on December 2, 2012
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Quoting VaStormGuy:
This blog was just posted to reddit on r/weather. Who did it?

It wasn't me...
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
This blog was just posted to reddit on r/weather. Who did it?
Member Since: October 30, 2012 Posts: 1 Comments: 83
A marginal severe threat is happening in Chicago and surrounding areas. Nothing that warrants a slight risk but there could be some damaging winds gusts and even a tornado.

Mesoscal discussion 2129
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972


Source
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 63 Comments: 6723
Quoting goosegirl1:



Take heart. WVU gets to play in the Toilet ... oops, I mean New Era Pin Stripe Bowl
(whatever that is). At least they get to play their old rival Syracuse.


It was freakishly warm here today at 69 degrees, and may be 70 tomorrow. Who needs to move south at this rate?
People r now coming to Nassau because it's cooler here in December..... amazing thought.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


from what I remember those are always predetermine pressures readings for each number of the Dvorak scale.


How's this?

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Finally some light.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 63 Comments: 6723
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Just beat Notre Dame.....
That was a horrible loss for Georgia...
So close



Take heart. WVU gets to play in the Toilet ... oops, I mean New Era Pin Stripe Bowl
(whatever that is). At least they get to play their old rival Syracuse.


It was freakishly warm here today at 69 degrees, and may be 70 tomorrow. Who needs to move south at this rate?
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According to Jeff's blog... not too many 'strong storms' have hit this area since 1945. 
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340. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting RTSplayer:


Ok.

Then what is this?

Why did it repeatedly have T number 7.5 with a raw number as high as 7.6?

Given the basin, that's consistent with a sub-900mb storm...


from what I remember those are always predetermine pressures readings for each number of the Dvorak scale.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47054
Quoting nymore:
Can I see these pressure reports from NOAA.


Source

2012DEC03 113000 7.3 891.7/ +5.1 /149.0 7.3 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 0.16 -81.43 EYE 12 IR 7.46 -128.84 COMBO
2012DEC03 123000 7.3 891.7/ +5.1 /149.0 7.3 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -2.41 -82.22 EYE 14 IR 7.50 -128.45 COMBO
2012DEC03 125700 7.4 887.8/ +5.1 /152.0 7.4 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 5.47 -81.86 EYE 13 IR 7.54 -128.34 COMBO
2012DEC03 133000 7.4 887.9/ +5.1 /152.0 7.4 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -0.61 -81.64 EYE 14 IR 7.48 -128.21 COMBO
2012DEC03 135700 7.5 884.1/ +5.1 /155.0 7.5 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 6.18 -81.74 EYE 14 IR 7.51 -128.10 COMBO
2012DEC03 143000 7.5 884.1/ +5.1 /155.0 7.5 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 11.62 -81.20 EYE 14 IR 7.45 -127.97 COMBO
2012DEC03 145700 7.5 884.1/ +5.1 /155.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 6.65 -80.59 EYE 16 IR 7.48 -127.87 COMBO
2012DEC03 153000 7.5 884.0/ +5.1 /155.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 11.96 -80.03 EYE 16 IR 7.52 -127.74 COMBO
2012DEC03 155700 7.5 884.1/ +5.1 /155.0 7.5 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 8.29 -79.36 EYE 17 IR 7.45 -127.63 COMBO
2012DEC03 163000 7.5 884.1/ +5.1 /155.0 7.4 7.3 7.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF 8.06 -78.41 EYE 17 IR 7.49 -127.50 COMBO
2012DEC03 165700 7.5 884.1/ +5.1 /155.0 7.4 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF 8.17 -78.05 EYE 16 IR 7.52 -127.39 COMBO
2012DEC03 171300 7.5 884.0/ +5.1 /155.0 7.3 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF 4.98 -78.54 EYE 16 IR 7.53 -127.33 COMBO
2012DEC03 173000 7.5 884.0/ +5.0 /155.0 7.3 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF 11.18 -78.89 EYE 15 IR 7.55 -127.26 COMBO
2012DEC03 183000 7.5 884.0/ +5.0 /155.0 7.3 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF 4.13 -79.88 EYE -99 IR 7.57 -127.05 COMBO
2012DEC03 185700 7.5 884.0/ +5.0 /155.0 7.2 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF -14.27 -79.50 EYE 15 IR 7.60 -126.94 COMBO
2012DEC03 193000 7.5 884.0/ +5.0 /155.0 7.2 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT ON FLG -15.02 -78.95 EYE 13 IR 7.63 -126.80 COMBO
2012DEC03 195700 7.5 884.0/ +5.0 /155.0 7.1 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT ON FLG -34.62 -78.02 EYE 9 IR 7.67 -126.69 SPRL
2012DEC03 203000 7.5 884.0/ +5.0 /155.0 6.9 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT ON FLG -49.03 -77.22 EYE -99 IR 7.71 -126.55 SPRL
2012DEC03 205700 7.5 884.0/ +5.0 /155.0 6.7 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT ON FLG -36.17 -77.52 EYE/P -99 IR 7.65 -126.53 SPRL
2012DEC03 213000 7.5 884.0/ +5.0 /155.0 6.7 6.8 4.8 0.7T/6hr ON FLG -69.31 -76.99 UNIFRM N/A 7.69 -126.40 SPRL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:


NOAA doesn't over-estimate that badly.

It wasn't my estimate.

Besides even Colorado State had it at 140kts on their latest update.

There's no way they were off by 30 to 45mb in their estimate.
Can I see these pressure reports from NOAA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:


Just wait man and don't write people off yet.

Ironically, last time a cat 5 hit the Philippines there were zero deaths, even though a mere TS Washi killed like 1,200.

Maybe people just don't take a TS seriously so didn't prepare. Maybe they got the message and will be safer because of it.


Or maybe a slow moving tropical storm is more dangerous than a fast moving major hurricane because the tropoical storm dumps far more rain, and causes catastrophic flooding and landslides.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3013

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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