Category 5 Super Typhoon Bopha bearing down on the Philippines
Extremely dangerous Typhoon Bopha is bearing down on the Philippine island of Mindanao as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Bopha completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Sunday and has been steadily intensifying today, and will make landfall on Mindanao in the early morning on Tuesday local time. Mindanao rarely gets hit by typhoons, since the island is too close to the Equator, and the infrastructure of Mindanao is not prepared to handle heavy typhoon rains as well as the more typhoon-prone northern islands. Bopha is potentially a catastrophic storm for Mindanao. The typhoon is following a similar track to last year's Tropical Storm Washi, which hit Mindanao on December 16, 2011 with 60 mph winds and torrential rains. Washi triggered devastating flooding that killed 1268 people. Washi was merely a tropical storm, and Bopha is likely to hit at Category 4 or 5 strength, making it the strongest typhoon ever recorded in Mindanao.
Figure 1. Super Typhoon Bopha at 01:45 UTC on December 2, 2012. At the time, Bopha had top sustained winds of 150 mph, as was just below its peak intensity of 155 mph, which it reached from 06 - 12 UTC on December 2. Image credit: NASA.
Bopha: the 2nd most southerly typhoon on record
Bopha became a tropical depression unusually close to the Equator, at 3.6°N latitude. Tropical cyclones rarely form so close to the Equator, because they cannot leverage the Earth's rotation to get themselves spinning. According to hurricane expert Dr. Paul Roundy of SUNY Albany, Bopha got its spin from a large-scale atmospheric wave called a mixed Rossby gravity wave. Because of the lack of atmospheric spin so close to the Equator, it took Bopha over four days to intensify into a typhoon, and it stayed a relatively small storm. Bopha became the 2nd most southerly typhoon ever recorded in the Western Pacific at 06 GMT on November 30, when the storm was at 3.8°N latitude. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center lists Typhoon Vamei of 2001 as the most southerly typhoon on record, at 1.5°N. However, other meteorological agencies do not credit Vamei with reaching typhoon strength, so this record is disputed. The previous most southerly typhoon was Typhoon Kate of 14 - 25 October 1970, which reached typhoon intensity at 4.3°N, 137.4°E. Bopha continued intensifying over the weekend, becoming the second most southerly super typhoon ever recorded (150 mph winds) at 00 GMT on December 1, when it was at 6.1°N latitude. The record most southerly super typhoon was Kate, which reached super typhoon intensity at 6.0°N, 126.3°E. Kate struck the Philippine island of Mindanao as a Category 4 storm, killing 631 people. Bopha further intensified into a Category 5 typhoon on Monday at 7.4°N latitude, becoming the second most southerly Category 5 typhoon on record, next to Typhoon Louise of 1964, which was a Category 5 storm at 7.3°N. According to NOAA's Coastal Services Center, there have been only 4 previous typhoons of at least Category 4 strength to track within 200 nautical miles of Mindanao Island, dating back to 1945: Mike ("Ruping" ) in 1990, Ike ("Nitang") in 1984, Kate ("Titang") in 1970, and Louise ("Ining" ) in 1964.
Figure 2. Tracks of all Category 4 typhoons to affect the southern Philippine Island of Mindanao since 1945. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
The closest a tropical cyclone has ever been to the Equator is 0.7°N, by Tropical Cyclone Agni in the North Indian Ocean in November 2004. Agni got counter-clockwise spin from the presence of the summer monsoon circulation in the Indian Ocean. The closest a Western Pacific tropical cyclone has been to the Equator is 1.4°N latitude, by Tropical Storm Vamei on December 27, 2001. Vamei hit Singapore after Christmas in 2001, at a latitude of 1.5°N.
Figure 3. This MET-5 visible satellite image taken at 0400 UTC November 28, 2004, shows Agni as a developing tropical storm just north of the Equator in the Indian Ocean. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Monkayo(103,263)and Bislig (111,133) are a couple of the bigger urban areas to be effected by Bopha.
On present course, looks like Cateel will get the northern Eye Wall, which is probably the worst winds and also this is actually one of the most vulnerable locations on this coastline, due to low elevations and being in the back of a bay.
It's turned a lot harder west than it was originally forecast to do, and that's considering that at one point it was actually north of the forecast center line when I first woke up this morning. Now it's way south and west of where it looked like it was headed several hours ago.
I would not want to be there but I would at the same time just to feel the real force of nature
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #65
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
3:00 AM JST December 4 2012
=======================================
SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of Mindanao
At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (930 hPa) located at 7.6N 127.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 16 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T6.5
Storm Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.7N 121.8E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Philippines
48 HRS: 11.6N 118.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 12.9N 117.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
---
hmm confusing.. Tokyo ADT states it strengthen to 7.5 on the Dvorak scale, but the advisory sustained winds only support 6.5
Scott Bachmeier @CIMSS_Satellite 35m
Category 5 Super Typhoon Bopha, approaching the Philippines: 375-meter resolution Suomi NPP VIIRS IR image: go.wisc.edu/7x9g3f
Tokyo Advance Dvorak Technique
Article | December 4, 2012 - 2:41am
Source: Voxbikol.com
Naga City (1:00 AM Dec 4, 2012) - Super typhoon 'Pablo' (International Name: Bopha) has intensified further few hours before its expected landing somewhere in Surigao del Sur or Davao Oriental.
At midnight today (one hour ago), its center was spotted 173 km East Southeast of Bislig City in Surigao del Sur.
Typhoon expert David Michael V. Padua of Weather.com.ph projects that Pablo shall be an 'extremely catastrophic Category 5 Supertyphoon' when it hits land somewhere along Cateel Bay, Davao Oriental at 4-6 AM today as it packs a sustained center wind of 260 km/hour and gusts up to 315 kph .
Pablo is almost 3 times the strength of Sendong that crossed North-Central Mindanao on December 16, 2011 wiping out entire villages and leaving 1200 dead.
This Super Tyhoon can become the most devastating typhoon ever to hit Mindanao since Super Typhoon Kate (Titang) in October 1970.
The government and private entities have braced for Pablo over the past several days with the best preparation and disaster preparedness plans it can muster. Rainfall caused by Pablo is classified as Extreme at 400 mm over 24 hours.
On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to make landfall along the Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur Border this morning (approx. 4-6 am Manila Time)...and cross Surigao Del Sur, Agusan Del Sur and Misamis Oriental Tuesday morning until the early afternoon, passing over or very close to Cagayan De Oro City between 1-2 pm. By Tuesday evening, Bopha should emerge over the Bohol Sea near the coast of Misamis Occidental, and then traverse Southern Coast of Negros passing just south of Dumaguete City between 6 to 8 pm. This typhoon will then traverse Sulu Sea Wednesday morning...and pass along the northern tip of Palawan, very close to El Nido, Palawan by Wednesday evening.
Russia attempts to quell end-of-the-world panic
Last week, Russia’s government decided to put an end to the doomsday talk. Its minister of emergency situations said Friday that he had access to “methods of monitoring what is occurring on the planet Earth,” and that he could say with confidence that the world was not going to end in December.......................and this..is going on all over the world lol
The other agencies are severely under-estimating the storm compared to the U.S.
This is the most recent U.S. estimate:
2012DEC03 173000 7.5 884.0/ +5.0 /155.0 7.3 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF 11.18 -78.89 EYE 15 IR 7.55 -127.26 COMBO
SSD Noaa ADT
I don't guess it really matters at this point, because the CDO is already hitting land. It's probably already too dangerous to try to run now, but I'd expect anyone who hasn't escaped should find a better location if its available. Running or driving in 70mph wind is probably a lot safer than staying in a house for 170mph or greater gusts...
At least they don't have a lot of large trees in the area. I looked on Google, most of it appears to be palms and other small tropical trees and plants, with only a few large Oaks. So the secondary damage to homes and stuff from tree falls should be minimized. Main concerns will be first surge (because of where it's headed,) inland flooding, and then direct wind damage from poor construction. Which direct wind damage isn't always as bad if there aren't a lot of tall trees or branches to become airborne or fall on the houses.
...WINTER FORECAST NON-COMMITTAL...
THE WINTER OF 2011-12 WILL BE REMEMBERED FOR ITS LACK OF COLD
WEATHER AND SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
INCLUDING VIRGINIA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL SNOW
WAS THE RULE...AS THE REGION`S WINTER WEATHER WAS DOMINATED BY A
LA NINA IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. CURRENTLY A VERY WEAK EL NINO IS
EVIDENT IN THE PACIFIC...BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO HAVE
A LARGE ROLE IN THIS WINTER`S WEATHER.
ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES THAT COULD INFLUENCE THE UPCOMING WINTER ARE THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION /NAO/ AND THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA INDEX.
THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE...AND THE
MOVEMENT OF COASTAL WEATHER SYSTEMS...AND ARE NOT PREDICTABLE MORE
THAN 2-3 WEEKS IN ADVANCE. DURING THE LAST WINTERS OF 2009-10 AND
2010-11...THE NAO WAS GENERALLY NEGATIVE...LEADING TO COLDER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OUTLOOK FOR THE 2012-13 WINTER
(DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY) INDICATES NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ALTHOUGH
THE OVERALL FORECAST MAY NOT BE WORRISOME IN COMPARISON TO SOME RECENT
WINTERS...PREPARATION FOR POTENTIAL WINTER STORMS IS A MUST. EVERYONE
IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR OCCASIONAL COLD
SNAPS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
THIS COMING WINTER. IN ADDITION...IT HAS BEEN A DECADE SINCE VIRGINIA
EXPERIENCED A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM. IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE
THE COMMONWEALTH EXPERIENCES AN ICE EVENT LIKE THOSE SEEN IN 1994...
1998 AND 1999.
Dissipated October 25, 1970
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
240 km/h (150 mph)
Lowest pressure 940 mbar (hPa); 27.76 inHg
Fatalities 631 confirmed, 284 missing
Damage $50 million (1970 USD)
Areas affected Philippines, Vietnam
Luckily there seems to be a big mountain range between the storm and some of the larger cities. This will probably mitigate some of the threat, but perhaps exacerbate the flooding/landslide threat. Looks like areas at highest threat for surge will be Bislig Bay and maybe Cateel Bay (unless it ends up south of the landfall). Surge may be mitigated somewhat by the character of the near-coast bathymetry, which seems to be rather steep due to topography.
Elevation data in Google is kind of rough, but it seems like Cateel is a bit elevated from the coast. Bislig and Mangagoy seem to have larger portions at near sea level.
My favorite!!!
1. Brad Pitt
2. David Beckham
3. Prince Harry
4. And an hour with Neapolitan to express myself
I don't trust the elevations on Google Earth. I wish I had access to something more official.
Google Earth has some ridiculous results, like water in a bay that's 11ft above sea level, and other absurdities.
It's unlikely that the land is that elevated right next to a sandy beach, unless the beach is artificial, which I highly doubt for this part of the world.
Now for the rocky beaches, the elevations seem reasonable.
Holy moly.. are those eyewall vortices I see there? At 10, 3, and 4 o'clock. Spectacular rendition, thanks Caicos, I saved this one.
Chestnuts roasting on my Chevy's hood.
Sunblock dripping off my nose...
You're right.... looks like it will saw into anything. This is horribly amazing. Now this is a 'Superpower'. Sickening to watch and know that there will be lives lost from this storm.
I had an overnight low of 63 degrees here in Central Illinois. It be warm today!
Done....the change should go through soon.
ROFL
But for me it would be
Valentino Rossi (motorbike favourite of mine)
Brad Pit
Colin Farrell
High of 73-76 today...but still no severe weather coming
I loled at that.
That's completely ridiculous.
Look at this from yesterday. No lows, and 363 record highs or high minimums.
Total Records: 422
Rainfall: 54
Snowfall: 5
High Temp: 180
High Min Temp: 183
Even though a lot of these are ties, some break the old records by 5 degrees or more.
Cateel is the home of the Aliwagwag Falls, located at barangay Aliwagwag. It is a towering waterfalls considered by hydraulic engineers as the highest in the country and regarded as one of the most beautiful falls in Mindanao. It is a series of 84 falls appearing like stairway to heaven with various heights among the steps ranging from 6 to 110 feet (34 m). One step is measured 72 feet (22 m) and another is 67 feet (20 m). Overall Aliwagwag Falls is 1,110 feet (340 m) of cascading energy and 20 meters in width. All these in the midst of virgin forest. River at the foot of the falls. 13 rapids to cross.
Now add 15 inches of rain...
Devastating droughts.
No more Twinkies.
I guess the world really is going to end this year...
Image credit to Levi.
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