Category 5 Super Typhoon Bopha bearing down on the Philippines
Extremely dangerous Typhoon Bopha is bearing down on the Philippine island of Mindanao as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Bopha completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Sunday and has been steadily intensifying today, and will make landfall on Mindanao in the early morning on Tuesday local time. Mindanao rarely gets hit by typhoons, since the island is too close to the Equator, and the infrastructure of Mindanao is not prepared to handle heavy typhoon rains as well as the more typhoon-prone northern islands. Bopha is potentially a catastrophic storm for Mindanao. The typhoon is following a similar track to last year's Tropical Storm Washi, which hit Mindanao on December 16, 2011 with 60 mph winds and torrential rains. Washi triggered devastating flooding that killed 1268 people. Washi was merely a tropical storm, and Bopha is likely to hit at Category 4 or 5 strength, making it the strongest typhoon ever recorded in Mindanao.
Figure 1. Super Typhoon Bopha at 01:45 UTC on December 2, 2012. At the time, Bopha had top sustained winds of 150 mph, as was just below its peak intensity of 155 mph, which it reached from 06 - 12 UTC on December 2. Image credit: NASA.
Bopha: the 2nd most southerly typhoon on record
Bopha became a tropical depression unusually close to the Equator, at 3.6°N latitude. Tropical cyclones rarely form so close to the Equator, because they cannot leverage the Earth's rotation to get themselves spinning. According to hurricane expert Dr. Paul Roundy of SUNY Albany, Bopha got its spin from a large-scale atmospheric wave called a mixed Rossby gravity wave. Because of the lack of atmospheric spin so close to the Equator, it took Bopha over four days to intensify into a typhoon, and it stayed a relatively small storm. Bopha became the 2nd most southerly typhoon ever recorded in the Western Pacific at 06 GMT on November 30, when the storm was at 3.8°N latitude. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center lists Typhoon Vamei of 2001 as the most southerly typhoon on record, at 1.5°N. However, other meteorological agencies do not credit Vamei with reaching typhoon strength, so this record is disputed. The previous most southerly typhoon was Typhoon Kate of 14 - 25 October 1970, which reached typhoon intensity at 4.3°N, 137.4°E. Bopha continued intensifying over the weekend, becoming the second most southerly super typhoon ever recorded (150 mph winds) at 00 GMT on December 1, when it was at 6.1°N latitude. The record most southerly super typhoon was Kate, which reached super typhoon intensity at 6.0°N, 126.3°E. Kate struck the Philippine island of Mindanao as a Category 4 storm, killing 631 people. Bopha further intensified into a Category 5 typhoon on Monday at 7.4°N latitude, becoming the second most southerly Category 5 typhoon on record, next to Typhoon Louise of 1964, which was a Category 5 storm at 7.3°N. According to NOAA's Coastal Services Center, there have been only 4 previous typhoons of at least Category 4 strength to track within 200 nautical miles of Mindanao Island, dating back to 1945: Mike ("Ruping" ) in 1990, Ike ("Nitang") in 1984, Kate ("Titang") in 1970, and Louise ("Ining" ) in 1964.
Figure 2. Tracks of all Category 4 typhoons to affect the southern Philippine Island of Mindanao since 1945. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
The closest a tropical cyclone has ever been to the Equator is 0.7°N, by Tropical Cyclone Agni in the North Indian Ocean in November 2004. Agni got counter-clockwise spin from the presence of the summer monsoon circulation in the Indian Ocean. The closest a Western Pacific tropical cyclone has been to the Equator is 1.4°N latitude, by Tropical Storm Vamei on December 27, 2001. Vamei hit Singapore after Christmas in 2001, at a latitude of 1.5°N.
Figure 3. This MET-5 visible satellite image taken at 0400 UTC November 28, 2004, shows Agni as a developing tropical storm just north of the Equator in the Indian Ocean. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Jeff Masters
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Puffy tops on a flat bottom under 6,000feet -- stratocumulus
Stratocumulous with irregularly patterned holes showing the sky above -- stratocumulus perlucidus
A cumulus fractus looks like a cottonball with its threads being being pulled apart in all directions.
I have video evidence that says otherwise, but I'll get banned if I post it, because of what happens at the end. I even told you how to find it.
You're just trolling at this point.
Twitter:
ABS-CBN News Channel @ANCALERTS: Now on ANC: Davao Oriental Gov. Corazon Malanyaon as 23 reported killed in Cateel town
Anyone remember the story of Star Island?
The town is right on the water, and the PAGASA was only warning for a 175kph (110mph) storm, which is a terrible estimate even if it was supposedly 10-minute sustained.
The storm probably made it's actual landfall with winds somewhere between 160mph and 170mph sustained, with a 9 mile wide eye.
The town is built right up to the water, like something you made in SimCity. I suspect the 19ft storm surge, plus wave action, with 160mph winds blowing above it has probably scoured much of the south side of the town, which is on the north side of a bay there. the elevation does change a lot, so the entire town was not inundated. Observation height for winds is 10m, and so the parts that would have been above the wave action would have gotten at least the observation height winds, if not stronger winds.
Last I heard there was at least one location on the eastern part of the island reported a 6 meter storm surge, which is 19.5 feet. If you look on Google Earth you can see the elevations at the back, western side of the river delta are less than than, all the way back to about 1/5th of the way into those fields. Which means the entire front line of houses would have been submerged by a 6 meter storm surge. I'm not sure whether that included the wave action or not, as sometimes early reports get things mixed up.
The elevation of the sand bar across the mouth of the river is only 1ft to 3ft across most of it's length, which means it would be insignificant to slow down an 19.5ft storm surge.
When they finally get video in there, I'd expect most of the buildings on the east and southern parts of that town to be flattened.
More than 40,000 people have been moved into shelter as the powerful Typhoon Bopha hits the southern Philippines.
At least four people have died in the storm, although unconfirmed reports suggested that the death toll was as high as 40.
The typhoon made landfall on Mindanao early on Tuesday, bringing heavy rain and wind gusts of 210 km/h (130mph).
The storm has caused power cuts, travel disruption and flooding in areas at risk of landslides.
The governor of the gold-mining province of Compostela Valley was quoted as saying that at least 33 villagers and soldiers had drowned when torrents of water rushed down a mountain on Andap village in the valley.
Arturo Uy said the victims included villagers who were sheltering in the village hall, which was engulfed in a flash flood.
An army truck carrying soldiers and civilians was also swept away.
Benito Ramos, of the national disaster agency, said the death toll was expected to rise once soldiers and police gained access to the far-flung villages isolated by floods, fallen trees and damaged communications.
According to one report, quoting a military spokesman, about 20 people including six soldiers were missing after fast-moving water swept through an army base.
The eye of the 600-km wide storm was moving west at 26 km/h and was expected to sweep over southern and central provinces before reaching the South China Sea on Thursday, forecasters said.
Bopha comes a year after Typhoon Washi killed more than 1,500 people in the southern Philippines.
President Benigno Aquino had urged people in the typhoon's path to take Bopha seriously. The evacuations had prevented the toll being higher, officials said.
"It could be the strongest to hit the country this year," he said. "But we can minimise the damage and loss of lives if we help each other," Mr Aquino said on Monday.
The Philippines is struck by several typhoons and tropical storms every year.
Lucky! Enjoy it. Nothing such around here in over a month.
There are rumours this might unfortunately be true. They are still not able to connect or to reach several towns in this area.
Last I heard there was at least one location on the eastern part of the island reported a 6 meter storm surge, which is 19.5 feet. If you look on Google Earth you can see the elevations at the back, western side of the river delta are less than than, all the way back to about 1/5th of the way into those fields. Which means the entire front line of houses would have been submerged by a 6 meter storm surge.
I am not sure about that, it could be true I guess but these two images show something different.
My heart goes out to our brothers and sister Philipinos effected by Bopha..
Webcam from near my location..
My WU weather..
One could only imagine how high the water had to be to inflict this damage....
Its sad to see this. I know people on Mindanao. Have not heard anything about their status. Trust all is OK with them....
See Aussi-Post No 508: Storm surge spawned by typhoon ‘Pablo’ hits Catanduanes / LEGAZPI CITY, Albay, Philippines —-A storm surge as high as six meters hit the shorelines of Catanduanes on Tuesday, preventing passenger vessels from docking in the Virac port, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) in Bicol said.
Now look where Catanduanes is located: Very far in the North. This is amazing.
It's like the financial crisis - a culumnation of problems with both political parties, the Fed, regulators, rating agencies and corporations - but too many people want to look for just one culprit in the name of politics.
Something as screwed up as the Katrina response is due to problems at ALL levels, down to the people who chose to stay when they had a car in their driveway - and might have felt that way because of racial attitudes upstate in Louisiana where they didn't want NOLA refugees in their counties.
In all respect, (I am a strong believer in the 1st amendment and I respect ALL opinions), could we please focus on the situation at hand in Mindanao instead of what happened 7 years ago? Some of us have friends on this island and are trying to get information on the situation. And I'm not trying to be confrontational or anything, I'm just concerned for my friends and I want news from Mindanao....
Latest Navy 98S image..
In a (probably vain) attempt to end this and possibly get back to more important business, I checked on snopes and found this Link
OK..enough bickering.before Katrina FEMA was an "after the fact organization". They did no rescues, water, ice, etc. FEMA is tasked by congressional law, called the Stafford Act, to assist in the rebuilding of disater affected areas provided the damage meets a minimun threshold of dollers per capita. This new FEMA, that was brought about by a lack of Local, State and Federal planing and reaction has taken on a public persona . It seems the public wants FEMA to be both the National Guard and the Red Cross. Sorry folks...the law isn't written that way. Also I am growing tired of the crying from the east coast. True it is a huge disaster but these are the same people that were incredulos and called us stupid for not leaving for Katrina. How does that shoe fit your feet? And yes I am NOLA born and NOLA proud, but I did evacuate. It is called personal responsibility. The hand out mentality of this great country will be the downfall of it. &$ and drizzle here in NOLA
Precisely. Look where Catanduanes is located. 450 miles north of the landfall location. Even Sandy couldn't make a surge more than a couple feet high that far out, and this was more like an Andrew-sized storm. Obviously, we're dealing with a translation issue here, in which they are referring to waves kicked up by the storm. Six-metre wave heights up there are plausible, and that could certainly be sufficient to interfere with passenger shipping traffic.
That said, my guess is that a surge of around five or six metres might have taken place near where the eye made landfall, judging by precedents.
Thank you for that goosegirl1..
I was hoping someone would respond to it that had more pertinent knowledge than I..
I doubt you actually read anything I wrote yesterday, whether or not you read it, you clearly didn't understand my position.
I don't blame any government.
I blame individuals for making foolish choices, given the history of these storms is well known, well documented, and well published.
Anybody with a television set can watch the Weather Channel at any time to know what's going on presently, and the Weather Channel, local mets, and the History Channel have all done a fine job of explaining in every possible way where the dangers are and how bad they are, and this was not new since 2005.
Intelligent people don't wait around for governors, mayors, or presidents to baby-sit them. They can watch the News and Weather for themselves even days ahead of time to know what's going on.
Well, you can't possibly know exactly where the supplies are going to be needed nor exactly where they will be safe, particularly in a storm like Sandy which was becoming non-tropical.
It is foolish to expect someone to be at your door a few hours after the worst weather passes. Real world logistics just doesn't work that way. The agencies don't even know who needs help, when or where until several hours later, because they typically need eye-witness reports from news or firemen or police, or else wait to fly over in a helicopter to do an assessment. It wouldn't make sense to start trucking everything around before you even know who really needs it.
That's incredible.
That's so far away from where the eye actually hit.
SO FOR THE LOVE OF GOD LET IT GO
Post of the Year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Problem is that's exactly the mentality that got over a thousand people killed in NOLA and Mississippi.
"Who cares what happened in Betsy or Camille. I'm staying!!" - Last words.
Translation from Tagalog language via google:
Recorded as of 23 dead and 95 wounded in Cateel, Davao Oriental also deeply beaten by Cyclone Pablo.
Col said. Romil Mitra, director of the Davao Oriental Provincial Police Office recovered the bodies of the destroyed houses and establishments in Poblacion still only Cateel.
He said they have not been off-limits to the secluded village so feared further increases the number of killed or wounded.
It also mentioned that now isolated town of Cateel, Boston and Bangaga since the collapse of the bridge, nor He added communication and electricity there.
Right now he said, the bus parked treated or temporarily placed the wounded because of Cateels ruined homes and hospitals.
Report from Dennis Datu, Radyo Patrol 42
Source
--George Santayana, Life of Reason I
Just one thig to add, and then I for one will drop it... I live in WV for pete's sake, and I was following Katrina and watching it buzz saw right into NOLA. If I could see it, I'm pretty certain everyone else could, too.
It comes down to responsabilty for self and others. Know the hazards in your area, and prepare. If you wait for the government to save you or tell you to leave, obviously you waited too long.
Very well said. Now, back to the Philippines.....
And if i read right, theres at least 100 or so missing?
New overview report:
Pablo claims 56 lives in Davao Region
http://www.hstoday.us/channels/dhs/single-article -page/hurricane-isaac-presents-challenge-to-local- state-and-federal-leadership/8e3d3639429e8cd920db2 e20c6ed3de6.html
Looks like there isn't much point in discussing this, it seems everyone has their own political biases that color their views. Didn't mean to derail the larger discussion here.
I actually agree with your points, its just I'm concerned with the present situation right now...
Sorry if I seemed abrasive earlier.
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