Category 5 Super Typhoon Bopha bearing down on the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:41 PM GMT on December 03, 2012

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Extremely dangerous Typhoon Bopha is bearing down on the Philippine island of Mindanao as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Bopha completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Sunday and has been steadily intensifying today, and will make landfall on Mindanao in the early morning on Tuesday local time. Mindanao rarely gets hit by typhoons, since the island is too close to the Equator, and the infrastructure of Mindanao is not prepared to handle heavy typhoon rains as well as the more typhoon-prone northern islands. Bopha is potentially a catastrophic storm for Mindanao. The typhoon is following a similar track to last year's Tropical Storm Washi, which hit Mindanao on December 16, 2011 with 60 mph winds and torrential rains. Washi triggered devastating flooding that killed 1268 people. Washi was merely a tropical storm, and Bopha is likely to hit at Category 4 or 5 strength, making it the strongest typhoon ever recorded in Mindanao.


Figure 1. Super Typhoon Bopha at 01:45 UTC on December 2, 2012. At the time, Bopha had top sustained winds of 150 mph, as was just below its peak intensity of 155 mph, which it reached from 06 - 12 UTC on December 2. Image credit: NASA.

Bopha: the 2nd most southerly typhoon on record
Bopha became a tropical depression unusually close to the Equator, at 3.6°N latitude. Tropical cyclones rarely form so close to the Equator, because they cannot leverage the Earth's rotation to get themselves spinning. According to hurricane expert Dr. Paul Roundy of SUNY Albany, Bopha got its spin from a large-scale atmospheric wave called a mixed Rossby gravity wave. Because of the lack of atmospheric spin so close to the Equator, it took Bopha over four days to intensify into a typhoon, and it stayed a relatively small storm. Bopha became the 2nd most southerly typhoon ever recorded in the Western Pacific at 06 GMT on November 30, when the storm was at 3.8°N latitude. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center lists Typhoon Vamei of 2001 as the most southerly typhoon on record, at 1.5°N. However, other meteorological agencies do not credit Vamei with reaching typhoon strength, so this record is disputed. The previous most southerly typhoon was Typhoon Kate of 14 - 25 October 1970, which reached typhoon intensity at 4.3°N, 137.4°E. Bopha continued intensifying over the weekend, becoming the second most southerly super typhoon ever recorded (150 mph winds) at 00 GMT on December 1, when it was at 6.1°N latitude. The record most southerly super typhoon was Kate, which reached super typhoon intensity at 6.0°N, 126.3°E. Kate struck the Philippine island of Mindanao as a Category 4 storm, killing 631 people. Bopha further intensified into a Category 5 typhoon on Monday at 7.4°N latitude, becoming the second most southerly Category 5 typhoon on record, next to Typhoon Louise of 1964, which was a Category 5 storm at 7.3°N. According to NOAA's Coastal Services Center, there have been only 4 previous typhoons of at least Category 4 strength to track within 200 nautical miles of Mindanao Island, dating back to 1945: Mike ("Ruping" ) in 1990, Ike ("Nitang") in 1984, Kate ("Titang") in 1970, and Louise ("Ining" ) in 1964.


Figure 2. Tracks of all Category 4 typhoons to affect the southern Philippine Island of Mindanao since 1945. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

The closest a tropical cyclone has ever been to the Equator is 0.7°N, by Tropical Cyclone Agni in the North Indian Ocean in November 2004. Agni got counter-clockwise spin from the presence of the summer monsoon circulation in the Indian Ocean. The closest a Western Pacific tropical cyclone has been to the Equator is 1.4°N latitude, by Tropical Storm Vamei on December 27, 2001. Vamei hit Singapore after Christmas in 2001, at a latitude of 1.5°N.


Figure 3. This MET-5 visible satellite image taken at 0400 UTC November 28, 2004, shows Agni as a developing tropical storm just north of the Equator in the Indian Ocean. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I wish I could find some news coverage, webcams, and such for this event. This is a serious event. This things like a buzzsaw rolling into the coast.

NRL has it at 140kts with a 918mb pressure.

You're right.... looks like it will saw into anything. This is horribly amazing. Now this is a 'Superpower'. Sickening to watch and know that there will be lives lost from this storm.
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ON temperature, we're way above average near Hammond, LA as well. Even with the partly cloudy, sometimes overcast skies, we've maintained 77f for quite a while today and are still there now. So that's 11f above average high, and our daily mean for today is also a degree above the average high for today, which is sickening I guess.
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135. ARiot
How does that song go?

Chestnuts roasting on my Chevy's hood.
Sunblock dripping off my nose...
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Largo.......18 days left.Hmmm. Guess I need to start my bucket list.
1. Brad Pitt
2. David Beckham
3. Prince Harry
4. And an hour with Neapolitan to express myself
LOL good luck..I have my list also..just in case
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Avatar anyone.....?




Scott Bachmeier @CIMSS_Satellite 35m

Category 5 Super Typhoon Bopha, approaching the Philippines: 375-meter resolution Suomi NPP VIIRS IR image: go.wisc.edu/7x9g3f


Holy moly.. are those eyewall vortices I see there? At 10, 3, and 4 o'clock. Spectacular rendition, thanks Caicos, I saved this one.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2564
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Luckily there seems to be a big mountain range between the storm and some of the larger cities. This will probably mitigate some of the threat, but perhaps exacerbate the flooding/landslide threat. Looks like areas at highest threat for surge will be Bislig Bay and maybe Cateel Bay (unless it ends up south of the landfall). Surge may be mitigated somewhat by the character of the near-coast bathymetry, which seems to be rather steep due to topography.

Elevation data in Google is kind of rough, but it seems like Cateel is a bit elevated from the coast. Bislig and Mangagoy seem to have larger portions at near sea level.


I don't trust the elevations on Google Earth. I wish I had access to something more official.

Google Earth has some ridiculous results, like water in a bay that's 11ft above sea level, and other absurdities.

It's unlikely that the land is that elevated right next to a sandy beach, unless the beach is artificial, which I highly doubt for this part of the world.

Now for the rocky beaches, the elevations seem reasonable.
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Largo.......18 days left.Hmmm. Guess I need to start my bucket list.
1. Brad Pitt
2. David Beckham
3. Prince Harry
4. And an hour with Neapolitan to express myself
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5888
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
So you are trying to tell me Largo that I need to get a couple pounds of JUMBO stone crab claws in the next few days.....





My favorite!!!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 573
st.petersburg beach..feels like may not december
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Studying Google Earth for towns, villages, and topography.

On present course, looks like Cateel will get the northern Eye Wall, which is probably the worst winds and also this is actually one of the most vulnerable locations on this coastline, due to low elevations and being in the back of a bay.

It's turned a lot harder west than it was originally forecast to do, and that's considering that at one point it was actually north of the forecast center line when I first woke up this morning. Now it's way south and west of where it looked like it was headed several hours ago.



Luckily there seems to be a big mountain range between the storm and some of the larger cities. This will probably mitigate some of the threat, but perhaps exacerbate the flooding/landslide threat. Looks like areas at highest threat for surge will be Bislig Bay and maybe Cateel Bay (unless it ends up south of the landfall). Surge may be mitigated somewhat by the character of the near-coast bathymetry, which seems to be rather steep due to topography.

Elevation data in Google is kind of rough, but it seems like Cateel is a bit elevated from the coast. Bislig and Mangagoy seem to have larger portions at near sea level.
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Typhoon Titang ( Kate ) 1970Formed October 14, 1970
Dissipated October 25, 1970
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
240 km/h (150 mph)
Lowest pressure 940 mbar (hPa); 27.76 inHg
Fatalities 631 confirmed, 284 missing
Damage $50 million (1970 USD)
Areas affected Philippines, Vietnam
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...WINTER FORECAST NON-COMMITTAL...

THE WINTER OF 2011-12 WILL BE REMEMBERED FOR ITS LACK OF COLD
WEATHER AND SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
INCLUDING VIRGINIA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL SNOW
WAS THE RULE...AS THE REGION`S WINTER WEATHER WAS DOMINATED BY A
LA NINA IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. CURRENTLY A VERY WEAK EL NINO IS
EVIDENT IN THE PACIFIC...BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO HAVE
A LARGE ROLE IN THIS WINTER`S WEATHER.

ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES THAT COULD INFLUENCE THE UPCOMING WINTER ARE THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION /NAO/ AND THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA INDEX.
THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE...AND THE
MOVEMENT OF COASTAL WEATHER SYSTEMS...AND ARE NOT PREDICTABLE MORE
THAN 2-3 WEEKS IN ADVANCE. DURING THE LAST WINTERS OF 2009-10 AND
2010-11...THE NAO WAS GENERALLY NEGATIVE...LEADING TO COLDER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OUTLOOK FOR THE 2012-13 WINTER
(DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY) INDICATES NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ALTHOUGH
THE OVERALL FORECAST MAY NOT BE WORRISOME IN COMPARISON TO SOME RECENT
WINTERS...PREPARATION FOR POTENTIAL WINTER STORMS IS A MUST. EVERYONE
IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR OCCASIONAL COLD
SNAPS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
THIS COMING WINTER. IN ADDITION...IT HAS BEEN A DECADE SINCE VIRGINIA
EXPERIENCED A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM. IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE
THE COMMONWEALTH EXPERIENCES AN ICE EVENT LIKE THOSE SEEN IN 1994...
1998 AND 1999.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
DC hits 70 at 2 pm, ties record high from 1950.
..florida and texas are above normal also..these things do happen every now and then...then BOOM old man winter comes and fixes things
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #65
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
3:00 AM JST December 4 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of Mindanao

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (930 hPa) located at 7.6N 127.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Storm Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.7N 121.8E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Philippines
48 HRS: 11.6N 118.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 12.9N 117.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea

---
hmm confusing.. Tokyo ADT states it strengthen to 7.5 on the Dvorak scale, but the advisory sustained winds only support 6.5



The other agencies are severely under-estimating the storm compared to the U.S.

This is the most recent U.S. estimate:

2012DEC03 173000 7.5 884.0/ +5.0 /155.0 7.3 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF 11.18 -78.89 EYE 15 IR 7.55 -127.26 COMBO

SSD Noaa ADT


I don't guess it really matters at this point, because the CDO is already hitting land. It's probably already too dangerous to try to run now, but I'd expect anyone who hasn't escaped should find a better location if its available. Running or driving in 70mph wind is probably a lot safer than staying in a house for 170mph or greater gusts...


At least they don't have a lot of large trees in the area. I looked on Google, most of it appears to be palms and other small tropical trees and plants, with only a few large Oaks. So the secondary damage to homes and stuff from tree falls should be minimized. Main concerns will be first surge (because of where it's headed,) inland flooding, and then direct wind damage from poor construction. Which direct wind damage isn't always as bad if there aren't a lot of tall trees or branches to become airborne or fall on the houses.
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Quoting LargoFl:
..yeah..what people forget is..OUR calandar ends each year also..then the new one begins with new years day huh...
Ok Largo..Now I am confused... When is my last day on earth according to Brian Williams???
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5888
off topic BUT..this from the NYT...........
Russia attempts to quell end-of-the-world panic
Last week, Russia’s government decided to put an end to the doomsday talk. Its minister of emergency situations said Friday that he had access to “methods of monitoring what is occurring on the planet Earth,” and that he could say with confidence that the world was not going to end in December.......................and this..is going on all over the world lol
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DC hits 70 at 2 pm, ties record high from 1950.
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Mindanao bracing for 260 to 315 kph winds from Super Typhoon 'Pablo'
Article | December 4, 2012 - 2:41am

Source: Voxbikol.com

Naga City (1:00 AM Dec 4, 2012) - Super typhoon 'Pablo' (International Name: Bopha) has intensified further few hours before its expected landing somewhere in Surigao del Sur or Davao Oriental.

At midnight today (one hour ago), its center was spotted 173 km East Southeast of Bislig City in Surigao del Sur.

Typhoon expert David Michael V. Padua of Weather.com.ph projects that Pablo shall be an 'extremely catastrophic Category 5 Supertyphoon' when it hits land somewhere along Cateel Bay, Davao Oriental at 4-6 AM today as it packs a sustained center wind of 260 km/hour and gusts up to 315 kph .

Pablo is almost 3 times the strength of Sendong that crossed North-Central Mindanao on December 16, 2011 wiping out entire villages and leaving 1200 dead.

This Super Tyhoon can become the most devastating typhoon ever to hit Mindanao since Super Typhoon Kate (Titang) in October 1970.

The government and private entities have braced for Pablo over the past several days with the best preparation and disaster preparedness plans it can muster. Rainfall caused by Pablo is classified as Extreme at 400 mm over 24 hours.

On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to make landfall along the Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur Border this morning (approx. 4-6 am Manila Time)...and cross Surigao Del Sur, Agusan Del Sur and Misamis Oriental Tuesday morning until the early afternoon, passing over or very close to Cagayan De Oro City between 1-2 pm. By Tuesday evening, Bopha should emerge over the Bohol Sea near the coast of Misamis Occidental, and then traverse Southern Coast of Negros passing just south of Dumaguete City between 6 to 8 pm. This typhoon will then traverse Sulu Sea Wednesday morning...and pass along the northern tip of Palawan, very close to El Nido, Palawan by Wednesday evening.
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Quoting LargoFl:
Patrap....18 days
In the words of Dr. Bones McCoy...."Dammit Jim"
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
"The end"?
..yeah..what people forget is..OUR calandar ends each year also..then the new one begins with new years day huh...
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Steering currents don't appear to be planning on turning it north....
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Quoting LargoFl:
Patrap....18 days
So you are trying to tell me Largo that I need to get a couple pounds of JUMBO stone crab claws in the next few days.....
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113. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Tokyo Advance Dvorak Technique
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45628
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Avatar anyone.....?




Scott Bachmeier @CIMSS_Satellite 35m

Category 5 Super Typhoon Bopha, approaching the Philippines: 375-meter resolution Suomi NPP VIIRS IR image: go.wisc.edu/7x9g3f
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Quoting LargoFl:
Patrap....18 days
"The end"?
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5888
109. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #65
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
3:00 AM JST December 4 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of Mindanao

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (930 hPa) located at 7.6N 127.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Storm Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.7N 121.8E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Philippines
48 HRS: 11.6N 118.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 12.9N 117.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea

---
hmm confusing.. Tokyo ADT states it strengthen to 7.5 on the Dvorak scale, but the advisory sustained winds only support 6.5
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45628
Patrap....18 days
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Quoting hydrus:


I would not want to be there but I would at the same time just to feel the real force of nature
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Quoting thunderbug91:

BTW thats not an SUV......Link
Thats a full size charter bus.
Quoting thunderbug91:

BTW thats not an SUV......Link
Thats a full size charter bus.
.....OMG thanks for that Pic!!!
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Studying Google Earth for towns, villages, and topography.

On present course, looks like Cateel will get the northern Eye Wall, which is probably the worst winds and also this is actually one of the most vulnerable locations on this coastline, due to low elevations and being in the back of a bay.

It's turned a lot harder west than it was originally forecast to do, and that's considering that at one point it was actually north of the forecast center line when I first woke up this morning. Now it's way south and west of where it looked like it was headed several hours ago.

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Monkayo(103,263)and Bislig (111,133) are a couple of the bigger urban areas to be effected by Bopha.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
30 minutes? I would definitely write to admin and demand a $0.00057 refund... ;-)

Nah, it's just the way development on a live server goes. Google, Twitter, facebook, Amazon: every website suffers occasional disruptions.

Bopha may not be monstrous in size, but the storm sadly appears to be on a track that will allow it to cause almost maximum damage. It's likely to be historic--not something anyone wants to see or experience.
Nea....Mom always like you best......I will survive.
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Quoting barbamz:
Aaah, blog is online again? Good. It has been down for me. Anyone else?


Was down for me for a couple of hours.
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Quoting yonzabam:
Looks like Bopha's eye is going into the towns of Manay and Caraga. They have a combined pop. of 70,000.


Had another look. Town called Baganga (pop. 43,000), north of Manay and Caraga is the one in the firing line.
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Quoting LargoFl:
..for those in central florida..I-4 is reopened again..look at that SUV up on a barrier..geez must have been airborne

BTW thats not an SUV......Link
Thats a full size charter bus.
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Quoting LargoFl:
..for those in central florida..I-4 is reopened again..look at that SUV up on a barrier..geez must have been airborne

I pass that weigh station all the time going to school..... WOW
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94. auburn (Mod)
Quoting yoboi:



send that link to presslord maybe he can help..


I just put in a phone call to him..thanks for the idea.
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I wish I could find some news coverage, webcams, and such for this event. This is a serious event. This things like a buzzsaw rolling into the coast.

NRL has it at 140kts with a 918mb pressure.

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Quoting auburn:
Looks like Hurricane Hollow and the Barometer Bob Show is going to close down...

Help Save Hurricane Hollow and the Barometer Bob Show

Hope its OK to post this here..I just know he has had ties with helping portlight and even WU in the past.



send that link to presslord maybe he can help..
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Eye seen on radar.



Given conflicting signals in satellite imagery, and that radar image clearly showing a solid eye wall even on the norther section, I'm gonna say it's probably maintaining intensity.

Color enhanced IR satellite looks like it's slightly eroded on the north side since the peak T numbers were out, but the eye has actually cleared up more on satellite, and the radar clearly shows a well defined eye and eye wall even on the north side.

A clearing eye is normally an indicator that it's strengthened. But neither color scales on enhanced IR nor eye wall characteristics are perfect indicators in their own right. It could have weakened 10kts or it could very well have strengthened by as much. I've seen storms with no yellow in the IR on the colorado state site, and they would be 175mph. So the color isn't a perfect indicator.

There is a "hump" that happens in the IR color enhancement, which some category 5 storms get over and keep intensifying even when the colors go back down. I've seen it a few times anyway.


If the NOAA estimated pressure is even close to correct, I think this is going to be a near-world-record landfall intensity by pressure.

I don't know on winds, and it's likely whatever instruments are there, except that radar station, will be destroyed. The radar station appears it will be far enough away from the eye to survive though.
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Closeup of this awful demon. Source: cimss
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6032
Looks like Bopha's eye is going into the towns of Manay and Caraga. They have a combined pop. of 70,000.
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..for those in central florida..I-4 is reopened again..look at that SUV up on a barrier..geez must have been airborne
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Quoting barbamz:


Seems Bopha is heading right to the west for a while now. South of the forecast track. If this continues it might be worse for the highly populated area of Davao City as well.
I was just seeing that as well. Also, two other big problems with a westward instead of WNW track. That takes the storm over a much more densely populated section of the island, and also would have it spend much more time over land.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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