Category 5 Super Typhoon Bopha bearing down on the Philippines
Extremely dangerous Typhoon Bopha is bearing down on the Philippine island of Mindanao as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Bopha completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Sunday and has been steadily intensifying today, and will make landfall on Mindanao in the early morning on Tuesday local time. Mindanao rarely gets hit by typhoons, since the island is too close to the Equator, and the infrastructure of Mindanao is not prepared to handle heavy typhoon rains as well as the more typhoon-prone northern islands. Bopha is potentially a catastrophic storm for Mindanao. The typhoon is following a similar track to last year's Tropical Storm Washi, which hit Mindanao on December 16, 2011 with 60 mph winds and torrential rains. Washi triggered devastating flooding that killed 1268 people. Washi was merely a tropical storm, and Bopha is likely to hit at Category 4 or 5 strength, making it the strongest typhoon ever recorded in Mindanao.
Figure 1. Super Typhoon Bopha at 01:45 UTC on December 2, 2012. At the time, Bopha had top sustained winds of 150 mph, as was just below its peak intensity of 155 mph, which it reached from 06 - 12 UTC on December 2. Image credit: NASA.
Bopha: the 2nd most southerly typhoon on record
Bopha became a tropical depression unusually close to the Equator, at 3.6°N latitude. Tropical cyclones rarely form so close to the Equator, because they cannot leverage the Earth's rotation to get themselves spinning. According to hurricane expert Dr. Paul Roundy of SUNY Albany, Bopha got its spin from a large-scale atmospheric wave called a mixed Rossby gravity wave. Because of the lack of atmospheric spin so close to the Equator, it took Bopha over four days to intensify into a typhoon, and it stayed a relatively small storm. Bopha became the 2nd most southerly typhoon ever recorded in the Western Pacific at 06 GMT on November 30, when the storm was at 3.8°N latitude. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center lists Typhoon Vamei of 2001 as the most southerly typhoon on record, at 1.5°N. However, other meteorological agencies do not credit Vamei with reaching typhoon strength, so this record is disputed. The previous most southerly typhoon was Typhoon Kate of 14 - 25 October 1970, which reached typhoon intensity at 4.3°N, 137.4°E. Bopha continued intensifying over the weekend, becoming the second most southerly super typhoon ever recorded (150 mph winds) at 00 GMT on December 1, when it was at 6.1°N latitude. The record most southerly super typhoon was Kate, which reached super typhoon intensity at 6.0°N, 126.3°E. Kate struck the Philippine island of Mindanao as a Category 4 storm, killing 631 people. Bopha further intensified into a Category 5 typhoon on Monday at 7.4°N latitude, becoming the second most southerly Category 5 typhoon on record, next to Typhoon Louise of 1964, which was a Category 5 storm at 7.3°N. According to NOAA's Coastal Services Center, there have been only 4 previous typhoons of at least Category 4 strength to track within 200 nautical miles of Mindanao Island, dating back to 1945: Mike ("Ruping" ) in 1990, Ike ("Nitang") in 1984, Kate ("Titang") in 1970, and Louise ("Ining" ) in 1964.
Figure 2. Tracks of all Category 4 typhoons to affect the southern Philippine Island of Mindanao since 1945. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
The closest a tropical cyclone has ever been to the Equator is 0.7°N, by Tropical Cyclone Agni in the North Indian Ocean in November 2004. Agni got counter-clockwise spin from the presence of the summer monsoon circulation in the Indian Ocean. The closest a Western Pacific tropical cyclone has been to the Equator is 1.4°N latitude, by Tropical Storm Vamei on December 27, 2001. Vamei hit Singapore after Christmas in 2001, at a latitude of 1.5°N.
Figure 3. This MET-5 visible satellite image taken at 0400 UTC November 28, 2004, shows Agni as a developing tropical storm just north of the Equator in the Indian Ocean. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Can anyone explain this????
Just issued....
Severe Weather Bulletin Number SIX
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "PABLO" (BOPHA)
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Monday, 03 December 2012
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 230 km Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur
Coordinates:7.4N, 128.3E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 210 kph
^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^
What the Frogs
Movement: West at 26 kph
but that did not come from the S
One strange thing I have noticed with Bopha is that since the last eyewall replacement cycle, the eye has been relatively cool for a storm of this intensity. If you look at the water vapor loop I have below, notice the eye doesn't really have the black or brownish color that the most intense tropical cyclones do. I wonder if this may be holding back the intensity a bit. However, with the appearance of Bopha at the moment, I'm afraid that any detriment that the coolish eye has on the system is somewhat minor and remains extremely powerful. It also appears that the eye is trending towards warming a bit, which may mean continued intensification.
That's just not right.
This is a unit conversion error. They took miles per hour and incorrectly put kph behind it.
I know they probably use 10min sustained winds, which might actually be right, I don't know, but the gusts are clearly wrong and ridiculous.
A T-7.5/7.6 hurricane typically has gusts of over 200 Miles per hour, not kilometers per hour. In kph that is supposed to be more like 320kph for gusts...
Link
nor can i get on this site too check the gfs
Link
all so noted that nothing has been updated this AM from NWS and the forcast from weatherundergorund is still from last night
is any thing working for you all this AM
They always post in kph so that isn't wrong. Talk about down playing a super typhoon. It's just wrong. so plainly wrong and will cost lives. Signal No.4 should be up and should of been up 6hrs ago.
Bad stuff.
Subjective Dvorak Estimates are at T 7.5, one level away from the maximum of T 8.0. That's with an eye temp of 6.6C, so if the eye can warm up some it may be possible to see T 8.0... The amazing thing about this storm is that it has essentially reached its maximum potential intensity:
Regardless, we have a category five tropical cyclone about to make landfall on area that isn't very wealthy and seems to be ill-prepared for a powerful storm like Bopha. My prayers go out to the Philippines and all those in the path of this storm.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
11:00 PM PhST December 3 2012
==============================
Typhoon "PABLO" has maintained its strength as it continues to threaten Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur Area
At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [948 hPa] located at 7.4°N 128.3°E or 230 km southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots gusting up to 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots.
State of the sea is rough to phenomenal
Signal Warnings
==============
Signal Warning #3
-----------
Mindanao Region
----------------
1. Surigao del Norte
2. Siargao
3. Surigao del Sur
4. Dinagat Province
5. Agusan del Norte
6. Agusan del Sur
7. Misamis Oriental
8. Camiguin
9. Bukidnon
10. Davao Oriental
11. Compostela Valley
12. North Cotabato
13. Lanao del Sur
14. Lanao del Norte
15. Davao del Norte
16. Samal Island
Signal Warning #2
-----------
Visayas Region
-------------
1. Southern Leyte
2. Bohol
3. Cebu
4. Camotes Island
5. Negros Oriental
6. Negros Occidental
7. Siquijor
Mindanao Region
----------------
1. Misamis Occidental
2. Davao del Sur
3. Zamboanga del Norte
4. Zamboanga del Sur
5. Sultan Kudarat
6. Maguindanao
Signal Warning #1
----------
Luzon Region
-------------
1. Palawan
2. Calamian Grp. Of Islands
Visayas Region
=============
1. Eastern Samar
2. Western Samar
3. Leyte
4. Biliran
5. Aklan
6. Capiz
7. Antique
8. Iloilo
9. Guimaras
Mindanao Region
================
1. Zamboanga Sibugay
2. Basilan
3. Sarangani
4. South Cotabato
Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-30 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.
Likewise, residents in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #2 and signal #3 are alerted against storm surges particulary those living in the coastal areas of Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat, Bohol and Leyte provinces where 3-6 meters wave height is expected.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern Seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
From JTWC:
"REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 7.6N 128.2E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031200Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND
041500Z.//
NNNN
Thats very concerning for the Philippines as most of the small islands have very little elevation..
Prayers to them as they endure Bopha today
Thanks again Dr. Masters..
5hrs till next bulletin and no signal 4...... What gives. Grrrr so frustrating. I wish PAGASA told the public the truth.
they have the lowest estimated wind speed with that 95-100 knots.
They're side too much with the JMA intensity scale that 105 knots is a "CAT 5" this time when they shouldn't.
I am not sure of this though.
Why don't they all use the same wind measurement of 1-minute sustained wind speed. I am really hating PAGASA right now. PAGASA FAIL PAGASA FAIL PAGASA FAIL PAGASA FAIL PAGASA FAIL
I'm telling you man, the forecaster (or whoever wrote that) made a unit conversion error.
They are probably not used to writing such large numbers for a storm in this part of the world, and misunderstood whatever data they had.
The numbers they have written are closer to what the mph numbers would be, based on the Dvorak numbers.
155kts = 178mph and you'd expect gusts of 210mph with that much sustained.
Therefore I believe they copied MPH, but since they are used to dealing with kph, they incorrectly wrote it in as kph, instead of doing a unit conversion.
The official sustained value Dr. Masters gave is 160mph sustained and 195mph gusts, which would still be 256kph sustained and 312kph gusts.
The Gusts should be the same regardless of whether they are using a 1 minute standard or a 10 minute standard, so that's inexcusable either way.
Which means they either don't realize the mistake was made, or else they actually don't realize how strong the storm really is. Either way, it's not good.
100 knots 10-minute sustained is 115 knots, or 135 mph, 1-minute sustained. This is still WAY too low for Bopha.
If you haven't realized it yet, all non-NHC warning agencies suck. Except for maybe the JTWC, despite the fact that they're slow with everything.
I'm in Severe drought now in my part of SE TX even though they were behind on this, been in it since October.
Don't have a clue why JMA can' t even use the correct 10 min sustained wind average either.
China = 120 knots
Taiwan = estimate 105 knots
Korea = 100 knots
Jakarta Indonesia = 100 knots
---
Don't look good with these. Right now China is the closest to 10 minute sustained winds.
03/1430 UTC 7.5N 128.0E T7.5/7.5 BOPHA -- West Pacific
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.5 7.5 7.5
by Earth Institute | 12.3.2012 at 10:52am
In Hurricane Sandy’s wake, debate is growing over how New York City and the region should rebuild and how best we can can adapt to climate change. The discussion continues this afternoon with a live webcast from Hunter College, where two Earth Institute scientists will join a panel on “Hurricane Sandy and Challenges to the NY Metropolitan Region.”
What did the storm tell us about extreme storm events and future climate in our region? What did it tell us about our vulnerabilities to future extreme events? What are the key opportunities and challenges of potential adaptation strategies?
...
The event takes place today (Dec. 3) from 2-5 p.m. at Roosevelt House, Hunter College, 47-49 East 65th Street (west of Park Avenue). It is by invitation only, but you can watch it streamed live on the web here.
http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/12/03/panel-on- new-yorks-future-after-sandy/
Yeah, too late for an EWRC before landfall.
At a latitude of 48 degrees at the end of Cancer(July 22) there is a very great drought. Fish in the sea, river and lake boiled hectic, Bearn and Biggore (Southwest France) in distress from fire in the sky."
This is the grain belt around the world, and drought is destroying crops
They're not that bad. You just have to get use of the information that 120 knots is Category 5 cyclone with the 10 minute scale.
Agreed. Dr. Masters seems to fear the same possibility...
"Washi triggered devastating flooding that killed 1268 people. Washi was merely a tropical storm, and Bopha is likely to hit at Category 4 or 5 strength"
Granted this storm is moving very quickly, 6-10 inches of rain in a 150 mile swath is going to be a good bet within 6-12 hours of passage.
Then there's the whole 50 to 70 mile swath of winds greater than 111 mph. Which is essentially a 50 mile wide EF2. That's not even getting into the 180 mph winds that are around the extreme center. Very dangerous situation indeed. This disaster may prove to be the worst of the year in terms of fatalities. Prayers going out to Mindanoa...
Sure does PBW. I hope your friend has already left
Yeah. The last EWRC on this one has been quite impressive over the last 12 hours despite the temp. That cluster of high tops on the south part of the core look to be quite cool but at the same time very organized. Not sure if another replacement cycle is imminent before landfall but at any rate the winds and surge from this storm are going to be bad.
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