The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close
The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.
Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.
Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.
Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.
Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.
Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!
Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.
Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.
Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.
Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.
Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.
Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.
It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.
No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.
Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.
The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.
Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.
Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.
The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 11/
0913-Valid 11/21 through 11/27.Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/21 through 11/27.
(click graphic(s) for full image)
Thanks so much for the answer and for not judging me a "denialist." As a skeptic for life in general, I am a natural. As far as "global warming," I know it's happening. I've seen glacier shrinkage with my own eye. I can't stand the issue is so politicized and that "green," which is a word redefined in the 1970s, has become a dirty word in some circles. My skepticism regarding AGW is rooted in how much warming man contributes and how much, as a puffed up biological being who has reproduced its kind astronomically in 50 years time, can mankind actually reduce and control this warming phenomenon. Add to this, warming is a global occurrence and will take global action if anything at all can be done. I've thought for a while any real solution would include harnessing some unknown and perhaps accidentally discovered force of nature, like Penicillin or microwaves, only something bigger that will allow mankind to continue to flourish on Earth in increasing numbers. Possible mankind is in for a fall, bigtime.
I understand gauges that monitor water level. Interesting the global rise was 11.1 cm in 20th century? Is that what you meant? I take it you're saying that sea ice levels and glacial melt in different parts of the world (etc on the "whole nine yards" you mention) is somehow calculated worldwide but not according to any global standard and then this data is compared to empirical data of sea levels also not calculated according to a global standard. The water from the glaciers I have watched melt over 40 years do not connect to sea in any significant way I am aware of. The lakes in front of them are bigger and the glaciers, way, way shrunken. I presume this kind of glacial melt is not something that would be added in.
I am looking for info on how the melt is calculated and consolidated and, especially, how it is then projected into the future as sea levels worldwide. I will start with the link you left.
Will be interesting to see what the Chinese come up with from their scientific voyage through the Arctic this past summer.
Thanks again!
the loss in the ice sheets in greenland and west antarctic are starting to make up a larger percentage of the rise these days.
off the top of my head, the total rise to date since 1900 is roughly 21 or 22cm. i'd need to check that tho.
Please behave yourself, bl. Unless you're itchin' for a lickin'.
:)
:)
Transportation and Money are certainly components of the issue: If you don't have the money to get out of town, it becomes much harder to do so. Similarly with transportation: If you don't have a car, and many big city people from every walk of life do not, the idea of trying to use whatever public transportation is available to carry yourself, loved ones, pets and perhaps valuables is just too intimidating.
Yet another dynamic, leaving town, that many people have to deal with is "Where in hell am I gunna go...? Up past Albany to pay ghastly amounts to the owner of some cheap motel...? Fuh_GEDDA aboudit!" Knowing that the amount of time they may have to spend at where ever, if a where ever is indeed findable, may become extended indefinitely, is a further discouragement.
This last might be remediable though: Imagine a web site something like facebook, only instead, it would be specifically 'evacu-book'. People that could receive evacuees in their home, or have a place for them otherwise, would make it known there. People that need to evacuate can describe themselves, and even suggest whatever skills or assets they may have to offer in return. People that are hesitant to leave their place of danger might be more likely to go if they knew that there was a solid haven of some sort.
And, while in the blind most folks wouldn't go for this idea, with the web, people can put forth their own social characteristics that matter to them, and specify as well as they care to what sort of people they would be willing to host. A methodist accountant would find the idea of opening his house to another methodist accountant and his family agreeable, or at least more so than to relatively unknown people. A Doctor would be more comfortable receiving another medical professional. Catholics with catholics, hip hop artists with hip hop artists. Black white 12-steppers bridge players golfers rodeo nascar gangster horseplayers etc etc etc.... the more people perceive others to be like themselves, the more likely they are to lend a hand.
Generally the matching function would run that way, but sometimes it would be complementary as well ... A blue-haired old lady may prefer a single mother of two more than the company of another blue-haired old lady. (Why, I don't know... but some blue haired old ladies just love goopy babies and mothering and all that.) A sultry babe may prefer a beef cake over more competition.
But in general, the idea seems do-able and much needed. It would need super strong and clear legal disclaimers. It would simply facilitate contact with no implied obligation at all; people once connected would form their own opinions, agreements and plans. Probably it should be set up so that each person's offer expires automatically in thirty days or so. It should be kept separate from facebook in as much as a lot of people refuse to use facebook.... but it could be maybe set up to be linked into facebook so that facebook users could use it as well....?
Anyway, there's my thought for the day. One of you young wipper-snapper web cowboys might run with it, make some $ and do some good.
Powerful Typhoon
Just out of curiosity, what situations are you referring to where the glacial melt doesn't connect to the oceans such that they would not be included in sea level rise?
There are many ways that sea level rise due to glaciers can be estimated. I believe they can estimate the flux of water off of continents through gauges on meltwater channels. There of course are also the newer satellite-derived estimates which use changes in gravity as a proxy for water mass loss. It can also be estimated working backwards by estimating sea level rise first, then attributing components to different sources and through process of elimination estimating where the remaining portion came from. Thus far, thermal expansion has been responsible for the largest portion of sea level rise (directly tied to ocean temperature), but the contribution from land glaciers continues to grow. I'm not sure when it is expected to outpace thermal expansion.
Good, a contributor found another precedent from 1990. But surely, somone out there knows something about the conditions that might be contributing to this unusual event. SST is extremely high, but is it unusual for this time of year? Where on earth could all this vorticity have come from?
Looks it's drawn a bead on Palau, a place I know fairly well.
And yes it will cause immense havoc in the Philippines which only rarely get a storm this intense this far south. People and infrastructure and hillslsides are just not prepared there as they are farther north.
More like a hammering. Ya know what they say:
If the only tool you have in your tool box is a hammer...every problem is a nail.
NOAA proposes listing 66 reef-building coral species under the Endangered Species Act
November 30, 2012
"Healthy coral reefs are among the most economically valuable and biologically diverse ecosystems on earth," said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary for commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "Corals provide habitat to support fisheries that feed millions of people; generate jobs and income to local economies through recreation, tourism, and fisheries; and protect coastlines from storms and erosion. Yet, scientific research indicates that climate change and other activities are putting these corals at risk. This is an important, sensible next step toward preserving the benefits provided by these species, both now and into the future."
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20121130 _coralspecies.html
Also, Bopha is small even for Atlantic standards. In the WPac, that is downright tiny.
getting four teeth pulled sounds silly. ;)
I thought dentists were generally averse to pulling.
I hope they weren't "wisdom teeth". You need all the help you can get. :)
I was supposed to get mine pulled but never did.
They say a lot of pullings are unnecessary as well so we'll see.
right now the gum around the bottom right one hurts but its been up for 6-7 months now although not very high so I'm not sure what's going on.
I'm sure not getting any wisdom from it though...
Go Dawgs!
I wonder if this low-latitude formation has implications for the activity level of the Southern Hemisphere season...
"Though this year’s preliminary tornado tally aligns exactly with the average, the timing of the activity occurred outside of the parameters of when tornadoes tend to form according to climate data."
Read more: Weather blog
I've gotta take 1000mg of Tylenol. Already feeling dizzy because of all the blood I lost.
But anyways, this has nothing to do with weather...
Bopha is nearly a Category 5.
Two inland glaciers in Alaska, one as you start down the Kenai from Anchorage and the other in SE Alaska. Seems like it would be difficult to assess where the ice melt goes in these types of situations, how much soaked in, refroze, spread as lake, oozed its way to a creek and did reach salt water, and the whole nine yards.
And, at risk of being burned at the "willful denying" stake, here's a tip for those "in the know" about global warming. If you and/or others really wish for me and/or others to understand, it could be helpful if you explained these things instead of just throwing them out there like you and one other responder did with the phrase, "thermal expansion." I have no idea how this relates to sea / ice loss or (add: how it relates) to anything about global warming. Some of us are more nature lovers than scientific types, and we may be more likely to throw our hands up in the air than take the time to look up that kind of stuff.
Possibly wordplay is the only tool in my box. I see it everywhere, collect and create it. lol Sometimes getting a laugh is like pulling teeth around here.
:)
Have a good one.
Not all streams drain to the sea. There also is sublimation.
It is going to hurt for a while and there are a good amount of food restrictions for the first day or two.
source: Had a tooth pulled in the summer.
Bopha looks like and is a very powerful typhoon. There will be deadly impacts where ever it goes.
Caputuring the Insane Beauty of Climate Change
by Maureen Nandini Mitra – November 30, 2012
Film Review: Chasing Ice (Documentary
What does climate change look like?
For decades now, scientists and environmentalists have been struggling to offer compelling, real world, visual examples of how global warming is altering our world. But what is considered rapid change in geological terms takes many years to occur and is, therefore, hard to capture visually (At least until extreme weather events like heatwaves, droughts, and frankenstorms a la Sandy began showing up with increasing regularity in the past few years).
National Geographic photographer James Balog grappled with this problem too.
Somewhat of a climate change skeptic himself back in the early 2000s, Balog spent several years researching climate change, “trying to find what you could photograph about it.” He couldn’t come up with much. Then, in the spring of 2005, he was sent on an assignment to Iceland to capture images of melting glaciers. The trip not only turned him into a global warming believer, it made him realize the only thing that would work in telling a visual story of Earth’s changing climate, the only story that “sounded right,” was ice.
“I realized that the public doesn’t want to hear about more statistical studies, more computer models, more projections. What they need is a believable, understandable piece of visual evidence. Something that grabs them in the gut,” he says near the beginning of Chasing Ice, a documentary by Jeff Orlowski that chronicles Balog’s multiyear project to photograph ice melt in the Arctic.
Soon after that first trip to Iceland, Balog decided to document the melt by visiting glaciers across the world every six months and photographing them from the same marked spot. But he found that the glaciers were no longer moving at a, well, glacial pace. In fact, the rate of change was so fast that he then embarked on the boldest expedition of his life — an “Extreme Ice Survey” that would use time-lapse cameras to capture the incredible speed at which our ice sheets were melting and raising sea levels.
More to read
Link to the trailer (youtube)
Howdy Barefoot,
Just lurking thru at the moment... Actually what they're addressing is sea level rise attributed to warm ocean thermal expansion, several references from Google search - "sea level rise from thermal expansion"...
7.0 / 925.5mb/140.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.3 7.3
Streams that don't drain into the sea generally "drain" into the atmosphere (evaporation). That water is going to fall somewhere as precipitation and, sooner or later, is going to make its way to the sea. In this case, the connection to the ocean would be through the atmosphere.
Same goes for sublimation.
If you heat something, it expands. That's true of water, and most of the sea level rise we have seen so far has been due to expansion of the water as it warms.
It's expected that sea level rise due to melting ice on land will soon overtake the rise due to thermal expansion, and become the principal factor.
as far as i'm concerned, it's my responsibility to educate myself, and look up things like 'thermal expansion' rather than waiting for someone to tell me, or letting them talk over my head.
2012DEC01 195700 7.0 903.5/ +5.6 /140.0 7.0 7.2 7.2
7.0 from Tokyo ADT as well. JMA might use the 6.5 Dvorak intensity wind speed of 100 knots at 9:00 AM JST..
Palau is dead still right now, with almost an eerie calmness. It belies the impending typhoon disaster that seems to be tracking its way directly for Palau. Any tropical cyclone approaching within 180 miles of Koror is considered a threat to Palau. The latest information has Typhoon Bopha approaching within 15 miles of Koror. In its steady approach, Typhoon Bopha is gaining strength and is expected to reach Palau late Sunday evening with sustained winds of 125 miles per hour and gusts up to 155 miles per hour. This will be the most powerful storm Palau has experienced since before 1941.
Typhoon Bopha is projected to land in mid-Babeldoab with major impact to Palau’s city center Koror. Some businesses and households are beginning to prepare; however, there seems to be a general sense of disbelief that the storm is coming and how powerful it will be when it arrives. Driving through the downtown city center only three or four businesses have boarded up their windows. Some locals have explained that “it always turns north” representing a general distrust in the meterological predictions for Typhoon Bopha.
Palau is an island nation with no building codes. A large majority of homes are built with wood frames and tin roofs. The potential for wide spread destruction is unfathomable. Residents of Palau’s northern state of Kayangel, a low lying atoll, have refused to evacuate and the government is not imposing a mandatory evacuation. The last large storm to hit Palau was Typhoon Marie in 1976 with peak gusts of of 86 mph. However, no severe storm has has ever been recorded as effecting Palau. Typhoon Sally had recorded winds of only 89 miles in 1967. Typhoon Sally in 1967 caused wide spread destruction.
Source
That is going to be bad!
Not if they're wisdom teeth.
Probably why they upgraded it to 50%.
The NHC is really just looking for the shear to relax a little more and for convection to blow up over the center, to name this Valerie.
Are the models still showing William In 5 days? Where? On my phone.
what do you think about it now?
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