The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close
The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.
Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.
Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.
Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.
Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.
Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!
Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.
Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.
Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.
Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.
Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.
Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.
It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.
No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.
Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.
The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.
Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.
Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.
The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1224 BOPHA (1224)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 05.4N 140.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 06.5N 135.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 031200UTC 07.7N 130.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 041200UTC 09.5N 124.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
830 AM EST SAT DEC 1 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1150 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
IF NECESSARY...ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
A BUSHFIRE has jumped containment lines, putting homes under threat in a Hobart suburb.
The Tasmanian Fire Service said the fire at Glenlusk, a northwest suburb, jumped one of the containment lines on Glenlusk Road this morning.
"It's heading toward some houses,'' a spokeswoman said.
The spokeswoman said fire units were at the scene protecting properties while police closed off the road.
She said residents were being asked to activate their bushfire plans and assist firefighters by protecting their properties if they were able to.
Several other bushfires burning at Glen Huon, Forcett and Central Plateau were not currently threatening properties, she said.
Emergency crews battled fires through the night after 60 blazes broke out across the state yesterday, The Mercury reported.
Temperatures up to 34C in the South and strong winds fanned the flames in an early warning of the summer fire season ahead.
Several shacks and vehicles in the Glen Huon area were destroyed.
Some residents evacuated areas affected by the worst fires, including Glen Huon and Geeveston in the South and Glenlusk near Collinsvale, north-west of Hobart.
91L in rainbow
Dont think Mother nature pays attention to man made deadlines...
IT will take weeks to repair damage from a ferocious storm that smashed Whyalla, tearing trees from the ground "like toothpicks".
About 5000 homes were left without power after the freak storm lashed the town on Friday night, tearing rooves from houses and flooding streets.
As of last night power had been restored to all but about 200 homes in Whyalla.
Another 1000 homes across the state were left without electricity.
Whyalla bore the brunt of the damage as wild storms and flash flooding swept across parts of the state.
Whyalla Mayor Jim Pollock described the storm as the most savage he seen in the town in 40 years.
"It was unbelievable - you see these things on the television overseas or in Queensland - when it came through it was just like a tornado," he said.
"Some of the trees that were uprooted were about 20m high and they've been lifted out of the ground like toothpicks.
"Stobie poles were uprooted as well.
"We are not aware of any personal injury which is very good.
"Property damage can be fixed but you can't fix lives.
"Thank God for our volunteers and emergency service people, who have been working around the clock - they are still hard at it now and it will take weeks to fix all the damage."
State Emergency Service volunteers responded to about 120 calls in Whyalla for storm damage while the Metropolitan Fire Service responded to almost 200 jobs statewide.
The MFS station at Whyalla was among buildings that were flooded and country singer Kasey Chambers cancelled her show because of a power outage.
SES state duty officer Bob Stevenson said the storm tore off or damaged the rooves of 38 Whyalla homes, while there were 62 reports of fallen trees - some which damaged houses.
Mr Pollock said trampolines were strewn about the town and a fibreglass boat had been upturned in the Whyalla marina.
A taxi driver was lucky to escape injury when a tree crashed on to his cab.
The storm also caused damage on Yorke Peninsula and through the Murraylands and Upper South-East regions.
SA Power Networks spokesman Paul Roberts said a large team of crews were in Whyalla but it could be days before power was restored to some areas.
"Priority will be given to safety jobs and to reconnection of critical infrastructure to assist other authorities manage their response to storm damage in the town," he said.
In Victoria, hundreds of homes are still without power and some have been rendered uninhabitable after severe thunderstorms ripped through the state's south-west.
Power was cut to 9000 homes and the State Emergency Service received 250 calls for help within an hour from residents at Ballarat as the storm hit on Friday night. Yesterday afternoon, 708 homes were still without power in Ballarat and Ararat.
Every time I post a youtube video I get banned, so you're probably better served if I don't tell you how to make it work.
depends on what u-tube video it is.
Wow, I just found a precedent. Super Typhoon Mike 1990
Look at that track. Killed 748 people in the Philippines.
WTPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 5.4N 140.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.4N 140.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 6.1N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 6.7N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 7.4N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 8.2N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 10.0N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 11.6N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.3N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 5.6N 139.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.//
NNNN
My WU weather
Webcam from my area
Current Jet Stream
Weekend Weather Quiz: Despite the official 11/30 end of hurricane season, how many TS or hurricanes have there been in December since 1851?
Answer.... 22
16 TS and 6 Hurricanes.
Link
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING THE MONTH
OF NOVEMBER. ON AVERAGE A TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE BASIN DURING
NOVEMBER IN TWO OUT OF EVERY THREE YEARS...WITH A HURRICANE FORMING
ABOUT ONCE EVERY TWO YEARS.
FOR THE 2012 ATLANTIC SEASON...19 NAMED STORMS FORMED...OF WHICH 10
BECAME HURRICANES. ONE OF THOSE HURRICANES...MICHAEL...REACHED
MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. ACTIVITY FOR 2012 WAS WELL ABOVE THE 30-YEAR
(1981-2010) AVERAGE FOR NAMED STORMS AND HURRICANES...AND BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MAJOR HURRICANES. THE 1981-2010 SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN ARE 12 NAMED STORMS...6 HURRICANES AND 3
MAJOR HURRICANES. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH
MEASURES THE COMBINED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND
HURRICANES...TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING
2012 WAS ABOUT 40 PERCENT ABOVE THE 1981-2010 MEDIAN.
REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2012ATLAN.SHTML
SUMMARY TABLE
NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
------------------------------------------------- --
TS ALBERTO 19-22 MAY 60
TS BERYL 26-30 MAY 70
H CHRIS 19-22 JUN 75
TS DEBBY 23-27 JUN 60
H ERNESTO 1-10 AUG 85
TS FLORENCE* 3-6 AUG 60
H GORDON 15-20 AUG 110
TS HELENE 9-18 AUG 45
H ISAAC 21 AUG-1 SEP 80
TS JOYCE 22-24 AUG 40
H KIRK 28 AUG-2 SEP 105
H LESLIE 30 AUG-11 SEP 75
MH MICHAEL 3-11 SEP 115
H NADINE 11 SEP-4 OCT 90
TS OSCAR 3-5 OCT 50
TS PATTY 11-13 OCT 45
H RAFAEL 12-17 OCT 90
H SANDY 22-29 OCT 110
TS TONY 22-25 OCT 50
------------------------------------------------- --
* DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.
$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT
I'm not Aussie but in the southern hemisphere it's late spring. Their summer solstice is Dec 21st.
On to the 2013 year!
LOL..
http://www.sciencerecorder.com/news/new-study-on- rising-seas-levels-likely-confirms-existence-of-gl obal-warming/
Today is December 2. Current time is 2:13am
Today is day 2 of Summer 2012/13. Summer will end February 28 2013. March 1 2013 will be Autumn.
Thank you sir, good to know. Now I feel like a tool, lol
Which tool, a Hammer or a drill or a pick axe? LOL
It's all good.
Goodnight all
TCSWNP
A. 26W (BOPHA)
B. 01/1430Z
C. 5.6N
D. 139.3E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...OW EYE (-29.1 C) IS EMBEDDED IN WHITE FOR EYE NO. OF 6.0
BUT IS SURROUNDED BY A RING OF CDG FOR .5 ADDED ADJUSTMENT MAKING A DT
OF 6.5. MET IS 6.0. PT IS 6.5. FT IS 6.5 BASED ON DT. NOTE: FT IS ON
THE “HIGH SIDE†OF 6.5 AND COULD VERY SIMPLY BEEN 7.0 EXCEPT FOR A
FEW ISOLATED WHITE PIXELS WITHIN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CMG CDO.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GALLINA
2012DEC01 143000 6.5 919.7/ +5.7 /127.0 6.5 6.8 6.8
Dvorak T6.5
If wind shear decreases, which it should, then more development of 91L should happen.
In the previous blog, some posted links to a newly published Princeton study on Greenland ice melt. You responded to my comment and made a distinction between the sea rise from Greenland ice melt (11.1 cm as calculated by another poster) and global sea rise. I take it from your response global sea rise might include the separate areas of the globe you mention added together - "greenland, east and west antarctic, glaciers, thermal expansion, the whole nine yards."? Can you please point me in the direction where I can read about how global sea rise is defined and calculated? I want something official, not op-ed or a climate change blog. I'd try google, but chances are what I'm looking for would be buried under the many biased climate change pages on the net. I am looking for something that will show me standards globally agreed upon among those who research this stuff. TIA.
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrend s.shtml
ScienceDaily (Nov. 30, 2012) %u2014 Tropical storms that make their way into the North Atlantic, and possibly strike the East Coast of the United States, likely will become more intense during the rest of this century. ...
More on Science Daily and all the best for all of you for the first Advent weekend.
Christmas market has started in my town (Mainz); you can see it on the webcam.
Just in time there is already a lot of snow in southeastern parts of Germany. And for more regions in the western parts (including mine near Frankfurt?) thumbs up that it will happen tonight. German weather freaks are already excited about it on their blogs, lol.
as to studies about glacial melt, there are plenty out there that show roughly 11cm added to sea level rise during the 20th century. here's a place to start.
as to thermal expansion, that's more iffy since it's based on the preceding variables and currently provides a minority of the rise in sea levels. the impact of thermal expansion is mostly modeled and the models vary a bit. you'd have to search and read.
as to how sea level rise is 'defined and calculated', there is no 'globally agreed-on standard' as to how sea level is measured, but by and large it's measured using a system of tidal gauges and since 1992 satellite altimeter data. but there is no global standard that fixes that data any more than there's some global standard for surface temperature measurements. different studies use different data, some adjust for certain things, etc etc.
this is science, which is being done by a whole bunch of separate groups comparing their findings. even a peer-reviewed journal is going to publish a lot of different studies, some of which have differing findings and methodologies.
if you want some centralized repository of this stuff you'll need to look at some organization like NOAA or the IPCC.
Heavy showers here today and last night. (Trinidad 11n 61w)
Drizzling now, but some more heavy stuff coming in a while.
LMAO
Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 11/
0913-Valid 11/21 through 11/27.Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/21 through 11/27.
(click graphic(s) for full image)
Viewing: 351 - 401
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