The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:50 PM GMT on November 30, 2012

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The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.

Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.


Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.

Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!


Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.

Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.

Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.

Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.

Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.

Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.

It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.

No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.

Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.

The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.

Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.

Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.

The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

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Carbon pollution up to 2 million pounds a second

Originally published: December 2, 2012 4:15 PM
Updated: December 2, 2012 9:09 PM
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS


WASHINGTON - The amount of heat-trapping pollution the world spewed rose again last year by 3 percent. So scientists say it's now unlikely that global warming can be limited to a couple of degrees, which is an international goal.

The overwhelming majority of the increase was from China, the world's biggest carbon dioxide polluter. Of the planet's top 10 polluters, the United States and Germany were the only countries that reduced their carbon dioxide emissions.

Last year, all the world's nations combined pumped nearly 38.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the air from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil, according to new international calculations on global emissions published Sunday in the journal Nature Climate Change. That's about a billion tons more than the previous year.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6051
Quoting sunlinepr:

Japanese tunnel leading to Mt. Fuji collapses, 7 missing

Posted on December 2, 2012
http://abcnews.go.com/images/International/ap_jap an_tunnel_collapse_lt_121202_wblog.jpg
December 2, 2012 – JAPAN - Japanese highway police found “several” burned bodies inside a vehicle after a tunnel collapsed about 80 kilometers (50 miles) west of Tokyo. At least two cars remained trapped Sunday after the tunnel collapse, according to the East Yamanashi Fire Department. Fire officials said the section of concrete that fell was about 50 to 60 meters long and about 20 centimeters (8 inches) thick. The cause of the collapse was not immediately clear, nor was the total number of people affected. The Sasago tunnel is on the Chuo Expressway. The cave-in occurred on the Tokyo-bound lanes, Otsuki police said. The road was temporarily closed, and authorities were working to rescue victims, police said. Japanese public broadcaster NHK aired images from the tunnel, showing smoke rising and a blue car with its side smashed in. Emergency vehicles were on scene. A journalist from NHK was driving through the tunnel at the time of the collapse. He told the broadcaster his car was damaged, but he was able to make it out unhurt. –CNN


no good.. Hopefully no one died trapped
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Quoting weatherh98:
17-24 named storms


I'll go 14-19 maned storms...
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Quoting Slamguitar:


Well, that can be interpreted a few ways.

Sometimes there seems to be too many (Sandy), but then winter hits and it gets boring around here, so I don't know whether I like the traffic or not.

Or if you're asking how many people are here literally, then "present".


how many people are subscribed to this blog
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Grothar and I....

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Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
So is the GFS model a good indication, when it comes to Positive and negative AOs? The NOAA outlook calls for a good chance of below avg temps in S FL but, the GFS is calling for a mostly weak Negative AO with only cold air reaching the midwest and northeast through the next 15 days.

The ECMWF also shows cold air reaching into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and the Northeast. Though all I need is for cold air to reach down into these areas and I'm good.

What to look for is agreement between the Euro, GFS, and the other models for an accurate forecast. The GFS is a really good model, just a consensus is nice.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
Quoting SLU:


RIP 2012 .. it's been great. 19-10-1
Happy New Year!
I must have dozed off there for a bit.
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James Reynolds @typhoonfury 52m
Trying to upload some footage now of #typhoon #Bopha from Koror in #Palau. Internet painfully slow so fingers crossed it gets uploaded
View details ·

Asha Phillips @AshaPhillips 36m
@typhoonfury Where will you upload it? @Storyful would be interested in using it and crediting you. Is that OK?
View conversation ·

James Reynolds
@typhoonfury

@AshaPhillips @Storyful hopefully to Youtube, once it's up please feel free to use/share/embed!!
2:55am Mon Dec 03
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6051
I would just like a cool/cold Chritmas/winter season. Not like last year...In the 80's on X-mas day.
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So is the GFS model a good indication, when it comes to Positive and negative AOs? The NOAA outlook calls for a good chance of below avg temps in S FL but, the GFS is calling for a mostly weak Negative AO with only cold air reaching the midwest and northeast through the next 15 days.
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2013 already? That's silly.
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Japanese tunnel leading to Mt. Fuji collapses, 7 missing

Posted on December 2, 2012
http://abcnews.go.com/images/International/ap_jap an_tunnel_collapse_lt_121202_wblog.jpg
December 2, 2012 – JAPAN - Japanese highway police found “several” burned bodies inside a vehicle after a tunnel collapsed about 80 kilometers (50 miles) west of Tokyo. At least two cars remained trapped Sunday after the tunnel collapse, according to the East Yamanashi Fire Department. Fire officials said the section of concrete that fell was about 50 to 60 meters long and about 20 centimeters (8 inches) thick. The cause of the collapse was not immediately clear, nor was the total number of people affected. The Sasago tunnel is on the Chuo Expressway. The cave-in occurred on the Tokyo-bound lanes, Otsuki police said. The road was temporarily closed, and authorities were working to rescue victims, police said. Japanese public broadcaster NHK aired images from the tunnel, showing smoke rising and a blue car with its side smashed in. Emergency vehicles were on scene. A journalist from NHK was driving through the tunnel at the time of the collapse. He told the broadcaster his car was damaged, but he was able to make it out unhurt. –CNN
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Quoting SLU:


A 2008-like season seems very likely with the high SSTs and neutral - weak la nina possible. Less of the weak short-lived systems but much more powerful hurricanes.

It's entirely too early to predict the number of powerful hurricanes for next season. We probably won't know until the season begins as we'll have to see what the level of vertical instability is. If it continues to run below average like it has the past two years, don't expect anything extraordinary.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
957. SLU
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

My early numbers point to 16-8-5. 2008 numbers ;)


A 2008-like season seems very likely with the high SSTs and neutral - weak la nina possible. Less of the weak short-lived systems but much more powerful hurricanes.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5282
956. beell
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CST SUN DEC 02 2012

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES THE FLOW SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE U.S. BEGINNING DAY 6...AS IT DEPICTS AN EVOLVING TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SOLUTION DEVIATES FROM THE GFS -- WHICH DOES NOT SHOW SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION OCCURRING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY 7 PERIOD...ROUGHLY 36 HOURS LATER THAN THE ECMWF...


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Quoting AussieStorm:

Will the 2013 Hurricane season be an El Nino or a La Nina or a Neutral season?

It's up in the air at this point. Some models show a moderate El Niño, others show a moderate La Niña, and most show very little change from the current state.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
of topic question...

How many of us come to this blog... like how many people are here?


Last night I think it was GeorgiaStormz was looking at some site stats and said in the chat room, at that time, there were over 400 people looking at the blog. (That doesn't mean there were 400 people looking at the comments, however.)

I should clarify: now that I think of it, I believe GS meant on the whole site.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


just one out of 19???


I'm easily amused.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
of topic question...

How many of us come to this blog... like how many people are here?


I'm usually here a lot. Only lately it's been at 3 or 4 in the morning. Just lurking on and off tonight. It's less painful than watching my team play. Lol.
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Quoting AGWcreationists:


Fortunately, the southern islands are lightly populated. Palau really got lucky. Bohpa went west instead of WNW.

Looks like Bopha has taken a WSW turn in the last few frames.



TXPQ27 KNES 022123
TCSWNP

A. 26W (BOPHA)

B. 02/2030Z

C. 6.6N

D. 132.3E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.5/W1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/TMI/AMSU

H. REMARKS...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY (NOTED BELOW) SHOWS A SINGLE
EYEWALL FEATURE INDICATING THAT ANY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE NOTED
IN PREVIOUS BULLETIN HAS NEARED COMPLETION. EYE IS LARGER NOW THAN 24
HOURS PREVIOUS AND REMAINS CLOUD FILLED MTSAT IR IMAGERY. W EYE WITH W
SURROUNDING TEMP AND CMG RING TEMPERATURE GIVES DT=5.0 (INCLUDES -1.0
EYE ADJUSTMENT). THIS MATCHES DT USING W EMBEDDED CENTER. MET=6.5 BASED
ON 24 HOUR WEAKENING TREND. PT=6.0. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

02/1436Z 6.7N 134.0E TMI
02/1631Z 6.6N 133.2E AMSU


...RUMINSKI

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm tempted to say next year will feature 19 named storms.
17-24 named storms
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The final toll after post-season changes will likely be 19-10-2 or 19-10-3, depending on whether or not they upgrade Gordon. Seems unlikely to me.

There's also a slim chance they upgrade Beryl to a hurricane, which would make it 19-11-2 or 19-11-3.

Will the 2013 Hurricane season be an El Nino or a La Nina or a Neutral season?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting AussieStorm:
Peleliu got badly hit by storm surge down there but no more details than that.


Fortunately, the southern islands are lightly populated. Palau really got lucky. Bohpa went west instead of WNW.
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Bopha:

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We will have a first glimpse of how the experts view the 2013 Atlantic season when CSU and TSR release their first outlook on the 7th.

My early numbers are 15/8/3.

My early numbers point to 16-8-5. 2008 numbers ;)
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@typhoonfury James Reynolds
Some damage next door to our hotel #typhoon #Bopha



Peleliu got badly hit by storm surge down there but no more details than that.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We will have a first glimpse of how the experts view the 2013 Atlantic season when CSU and TSR release their first outlook on the 7th.

My early numbers are 15/8/3.

I'm tempted to say next year will feature 19 named storms.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
of topic question...

How many of us come to this blog... like how many people are here?

I'm here and I'll be here all winter tracking winter storms and making forecasts for my local area. I'll even being impacted by winter storms from time to time.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


120 mph... then 140 mph. starting to go up again

The eye is becoming more visible on satellite and microwave imagery, and the eyewall is looking better on microwave.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
938. txjac
Quoting pottery:
Good night all.
Keep Safe.


Night Pott ..you have a safe one too!
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Good night all.
Keep Safe.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
of topic question...

How many of us come to this blog... like how many people are here?


Well, that can be interpreted a few ways.

Sometimes there seems to be too many (Sandy), but then winter hits and it gets boring around here, so I don't know whether I like the traffic or not.

Or if you're asking how many people are here literally, then "present".
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
somewhat off topic

since warnings weren't issued for the NYC are during Sandy...here is the closest approach to the weight of a hurricane warning for the public... although they don't really exist

Hurricane Wind warning
High waves warning
Major flooding warning
Water rise flooding warning ...something like that

high wind warnings, flood warning etc didn't have the effect expected on the population

I think it would be more 'understandable' to keep the current SS scale, but to add a 1-5 scale of "Destructive Potential" or something like that..

So, Sandy would at landfall have been a Cat 2, with a DP of 5.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 DEC 2012 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 6:44:33 N Lon : 131:19:20 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 947.7mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.9 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -27.3C Cloud Region Temp : -77.9C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 81km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 12.9 degrees


120 kt... then 140 mph. starting to go up again
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The final toll after post-season changes will likely be 19-10-2 or 19-10-3, depending on whether or not they upgrade Gordon. Seems unlikely to me.

There's also a slim chance they upgrade Beryl to a hurricane, which would make it 19-11-2 or 19-11-3.

I don't think there is enough evidence to prove that Beryl was a hurricane. Sandy will be upgraded to a major in the post-season analysis and Gordon has a chance to become a major. Also I do believe Kirk will not be upgraded to a major, yes I know you didn't mention it but I felt like including it.

Quoting Speeky:


Are you agreeing with me? I'm confused

Yeah 91L is done and so is the season most likely.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
of topic question...

How many of us come to this blog... like how many people are here?
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Quoting Civicane49:


clearing out again...could go up in winds. Not so much relief for the Philippines from a weakening storm anymore
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Eye is definitely starting to clear out now:



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somewhat off topic

since warnings weren't issued for the NYC are during Sandy...here is the closest approach to the weight of a hurricane warning for the public... although they don't really exist

Hurricane Wind warning
High waves warning
Major flooding warning
Water rise flooding warning ...something like that

high wind warnings, flood warning etc didn't have the effect expected on the population
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Quoting Speeky:


Are you agreeing with me? I'm confused

well...you said it seems that 91L doesn't have a chance.
Kori said that it does not matter if it seems to you or not...it's NOT happening.

You should have checked NHC site before posting that because people specially Kori will hunt you down
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Quoting Speeky:


Are you agreeing with me? I'm confused


Yeah.
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Quoting Bielle:


Sandy was enough excitement for me for several years, even without Isaac.


just one out of 19???
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 DEC 2012 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 6:44:33 N Lon : 131:19:20 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 947.7mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.9 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -27.3C Cloud Region Temp : -77.9C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 81km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 12.9 degrees
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Ahem...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030101
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN AZORES IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE
PROCESS OF ACQUIRING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND DEVELOPMENT INTO
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Are you agreeing with me? I'm confused
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Quoting Speeky:
Now I want this season to go on into next as much as the next fellow. But I just dont see 91L havig a chanec of devoloping. It looks like its becoming more assymetrical by the hour, which means it will become more extratropical therefore there's a lower chance of this low to devolop.


Ahem...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030101
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN AZORES IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE
PROCESS OF ACQUIRING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND DEVELOPMENT INTO
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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The Philippines are gonna get it.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9733
Now I want this season to go on into next as much as the next fellow. But I just dont see 91L havig a chanec of devoloping. It looks like its becoming more assymetrical by the hour, which means it will become more extratropical therefore there's a lower chance of this low to devolop.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.