The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close
The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.
Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.
Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.
Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.
Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.
Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!
Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.
Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.
Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.
Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.
Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.
Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.
It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.
No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.
Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.
The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.
Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.
Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.
The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I'm trying multitask and it's not going so well. =P I had 2005 at first but noticed it was 2007 instead, but accidentally put 2008.
Anyways...I corrected my post.
Yep a couple of the models send her crashing right on as a post tropical storm and the Nogaps sends William straight in right after . Any wonder I watch the Atlantic lol
1, I estimated the energy needed to heat the ENTIRE atmosphere at the observed lower troposphere heating rate, so that energy value is actually a slight over-estimate, which deflated the ratio of the heat of fusion of water-ice vs the heat capacity of the atmosphere.
2, I also ignored the heat going to the Vaporization of water, which is also another very massive heat sink compared to the heat of warming the "temperature" of the atmosphere.
These two factors combine to mean that the actual forcing of "net heat gained" is far larger than any air temperature graph would represent, so that any apparent "plateau" in atmospheric temperature gain is insignificant compared to the amount of annual net loss of ice and the annual net gain in water vapor, or the annual net gain in Ocean Temperature throughout the entire water column.
So, what are the conditions that are allowing this usual event?
Phil
Infrared presentation is far more developed in Bopha than in Michael.
Although comparing the Northern North Atlantic to the Southern West Pacific is a bit like comparing apples and oranges.
Very symmetrical.
I don't want another named storm and since the world revolves around me we won't and can't name it yet.
But seriously not yet, probably in the next day or so though.
Why let reality interfere with your delusions...
She: My husband insists we keep our thermostat set at 68 degrees and I am always cold.
Other she: That's too bad. At least ours is around 20 and I am toasty.
I guess I'm wrong, too. Or warped... uhoh...
Link
ABNT20 KNHC 302338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF
NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS IS THE LAST REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE 2012
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE NEXT REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON JUNE 1 2013. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED IF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM
FORMS DURING THE OFF-SEASON.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
bye bye 2012 .. it's been a great ride
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (yyyymmddhh): 2012113017
SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 955 hPa MSW = 110 kt
ADT: 946 hPa 122 kt Scene: EYE
CIMSS AMSU: 958 hPa 99 kt Bias Corr: 0 (MW)
CIRA AMSU: NA hPa NA kt Tmax: NA
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 NOV 2012 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 4:40:52 N Lon : 142:04:09 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 931.1mb/134.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.7 6.7
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km
Center Temp : 9.6C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 77km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 6.0 degrees
Very nice consolidation.
Agreed
Currently at my place.
77.5°F
Updated at 10:50 EDT
Forecast top.
108°F
You aren't the only one thinking that, CRS:
"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
- John Adams
Actually No, In Ireland it’s a generationally thing People under 50 usually talk in Celsius and over 50 in Farenheight ...
that's hot 108...
Today is the first day of summer. This is a warning of things to come.
Btw, humidity is at 88%. Rained most of the night.
A big clean-up is underway in Ballarat in central Victoria, where a storm has brought down trees, damaged houses and caused flash flooding.
The State Emergency Service says it dealt with around 230 calls for help, mostly in the suburbs of Sebastopol and Mount Clear, when the bad weather swept through last night.
The storm brought large hailstones, strong winds and heavy rain.
More than 2,500 homes and businesses in central and western Victoria are without power.
SES spokesman Lachlan Quick says the wild weather tore the roof off properties and brought down trees.
"There's a palliative care facility in Sebastopol that had all 20 skylights broken and their power cut off [and] there were a number of properties that have had their roofs torn off," he said.
"[There are] a lot of trees down over roads, and certainly a lot of building damage to properties, with the high winds actually ripping the roof off a couple of properties in those suburbs.
"The damage calls were coming in at a rate of three or four a minute for probably close to an hour. We don't very often see that sort of rate of calls coming through."
Mount Clear newsagent Shane Stevens says a sign blew off and lifted the roof, sending water into the post office.
"It's lifted the roof so the back of my post office is a lake," he said.
"I walked in in the dark because there was no power ... there was water everywhere.
"Then [I] turned the lights on and I then could see what had really happened."
- ABC
© ABC 2012
Summer arrives with a punch
Sweltering conditions will continue across the New South Wales Hunter Valley today, after the mercury soared Friday.
Several inland areas recorded temperatures above 40 degrees yesterday afternoon.
As a result firefighters across the region stood ready to act in the event of bushfires.
Grant Conway from the Williamtown Bureau of Meteorology says it will be hot again today.
"The first day of summer it's going to turn out to be a true summers day." he said.
"It'll be humid and we're looking at maximums of 43 in the Upper Hunter and it could even get warmer and so it's going to be another hot and humid day until that southerly change comes through on early Sunday morning and cools things down a bit."
It has been a dry Spring across the region.
Rainfall has been hard to come by in the Upper and Lower Hunter, prompting fears that rural areas will slip back into drought.
Farmers are activating strategies to ensure their businesses get through the dry weather.
Grant Conway says rain has been scarce in many areas.
"The total rainfall for Nobbys was 48 millimetres and the average is 217 so well below and that's pretty much reflected right across the Hunter." he said.
"At Tocal you're looking at 53.6 for total rainfall for Spring and the average is 203 and here at Williamtown we had 57.4 and our average is 218."
- ABC
© ABC 2012
Next!
hurricane season still rides like the wind we still have 91L out there and it could be come a name storm the next day or so in tell 91L get name or dies out hurricane season is not overe in tell 91L is gone or gets name
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dorian * Replaces Dean
Erin
Fernand* Replaces Felix
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor* Replaces Noel
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy
Next comes winter and snow, yay!
That would be about right here, too. And yet we understand each other, happily.
I drove home this afternoon three vehicles behind a salt truck I could barely see because of the falling snow. And while I drove, the weather news was telling me that Sunday would be 11 degrees (celsius, that is) and to be ready to break out my shorts. Crazy!
Sounds like the U.S.
Old Guy: "Don't talk about that metric crap." *takes medicine measured in metric, drinks soda measured in metric, uses electricity measured in metric, etc*
Then you have to teach them what was 3rd grade knowledge 22 years ago, like what a "meter" or a "kilometer" is and how to convert it to feet or miles.
Sad thing is, the people in that age group and UPWARDS, i.e. the uneducated ones, are the ones making decisions right now in the U.S.
Enjoy :)
http://theconversation.edu.au/straw-man-science-k eeping-climate-simple-10782
I dont think so...I think there maybe both Valerie and William in the next few days ....And I aint joking..
Construction of the new 135' tower is suppose to start first week in December. Found this with some details but it leaves out a few like it's expected to take 2 full months. MLB NWS will be using radar from the surrounding airports, NWS Tampa, JAX & MIA.
I was encouraged to come, see & take pics..I'll bring those when I get 'em.
With a quick youtube search I found this.
The season is still officially over.
LOL that is quite true . I was lucky that when I started school they were preparing us for the change from Imperial eveverything to metric and we were taught both but my parents generation struggle still a bit . but they didn't have the chances that I had . They were uneducated due to circumstances ie could leave school at 13 its now 17 and in my day it was 15 but it was free and supported to 18, unlike my parents generation, I have a lot to be thankful for.
Melbourne NWS office also issued a Public Information Statement
True . But if these storms do occur next week they are included in the 2012 season , like what happened in 2005-06 where Zeta which died on the Jan 6th is included in 2005 season.
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