The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close
The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.
Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.
Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.
Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.
Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.
Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!
Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.
Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.
Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.
Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.
Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.
Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.
It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.
No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.
Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.
The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.
Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.
Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.
The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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For some, I think that just gets straight-up at identity. Once you have a set view of yourself and the "other side," it's much, much harder to break through that stuff and start actually getting at what _seems to be true_ rather than _what makes the other side wrong_.
People do this on a lot of different subjects, and I actually think it has gotten worse in this country (maybe in other countries, dunno) over the last decade or two.
It's about teams now, for a large number of people. It's a nasty dynamic. I hope we can break out of it sooner, rather than later.
Even as a kid, I remember thinking that the kids who scared me most were the other ones on the playground who could never say "I don't agree" to their own bestest friends.
But, you know. When you're a Jet, you're a Jet all the way...
Nice eye on her!
BTW they are free for everyone with the right antenna and tuner. NOAA 19, NOAA 18 and NOAA 15. you can even take a cheap scanner get the frequency go out side when they come over and hear the tell tale tick tock
Couple problems with that:
"these are changes that both human civilization and planetary ecosystems can take in stride".
Nope. Part of the reason we're worried about extinction is that the rate of warming and latitudinal migration of climate regimes is far outpacing the rates at which certain plants and animals can adapt or migrate; let alone species that are isolated in mountain ranges in southern latitudes (think the pika, for example). There are pockets of "northern" forests in the Southern Appalachians that are holdovers from the last Ice Age; this speaks to the gradual nature of warming after the last peak. We're talking significantly different rates of processes this time around.
"Our current technology can’t halt glaciers from first blanketing continents and then sweeping them clean. We still don’t know to what degree human activity can affect the climate one way or the other."
I left these together because the second statment is exactly what we've spent the last couple decades figuring out, so we have at this point a pretty good idea how to stop a global cooldown - try pumping a lot of CO2 into the atmosphere. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, that's the experiment we've been running on this planet.
A somewhat sick sense of humor is a sign of health, as far as I'm concerned. ;)
There's a big campsite up there, too, I often think it would be a pretty funny place for some snow camping. But I don't have the gear right now, it really _is_ snowy as all get out up there in the winter. I can see why it was hell to get through.
Totally aside, the guy who got blamed most for the cannibalism -- unfairly, at that -- is buried not far from where I live. He was largely shunned, but managed to start a decent little German-style brewery here in Sacramento. I guess that making a good lager can transcend even cannibalism.
I keep meaning to go find his grave and drink a toast to the poor fella.
By Mark Fischett November 30, 2012
Northern California is experiencing the first days of what weather forecasters are warning will be a long series of torrential rainstorms that could cause serious flooding across the northern one-third of the state. The relentless storms are being driven by a feature in the atmosphere you have probably never heard of: an atmospheric river.
Oh, and another atmospheric river created the worst flooding since the 1960s in western England and Wales this past week, where more than 1,000 homes had to be evacuated.
...
The real scare, however, is that truly massive atmospheric rivers that cause catastrophic flooding seem to hit the state about once every 200 years, according to evidence recently pieced together. The last megaflood was in 1861; rains arrived for 43 days, obliterating Sacramento and bankrupting the state. The disaster is largely forgotten, but the same region is now home to more than six million people. Simulations of a 23-day storm there indicate that more than $400 billion of damage and losses would occur, far surpassing the $60 billion estimates for Hurricane Sandy's effects. New research also shows that climate change may make these storms more likely to occur.
more at:
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/ 2012/11/30/mysterious-atmospheric-river/
this all started with a 5 alarm fire....you fight fire two ways either offensive or defensive, have yet to see a smoldering fire fought defensive.....why send the resources for a 5 alarm fire that is only smoldering.....related analogy over hype....
Ah!, but we have the knowledge, technology and will power to alleviate the worst of the effects of another approaching ice age. We could just do what we are currently doing now to avoid the worst impacts of an impending ice age. Maybe with only slightly more enthusiasm?
let's just blame ever event on climate change...that's what is going on now.....
Really? Are you an inventor? What would you do.... annnd could you stop it? Enthusiasm is for movies. This is not a silly venue and needs to be taken seriously. Sorry, off to put my chickens to bed and cook a real dinner... not one from a box either!
The flooding then in Sacramento then is why they rebuilt it higher -- they raised the whole street level.
It's still a flood prone city -- two of three major river systems come right together at downtown. The whole north end of it is protected by some crappy levees, too, and a whole lot of that is newer development that hasn't done jack for floods.
The Sacramento river is already going to start filling some of the bypasses upstream from us, knock on lots of wood that the levees here hold up if those fill.
Spring-like weather the rest of the afternoon
Posted: Nov 30, 2012 1:34 PM CST Updated: Nov 30, 2012 1:34 PM CST
By Patrick Vaughn
It will feel more like Spring this afternoon rather than Late Fall.
The rest of this afternoon, temperatures will continue in the lower 70s across Southeast Texas under mostly cloudy skies. A 10 to 20% coverage of light rain showers can be expected. Breezy southeasterly winds will continue to pump gulf moisture into the area.
Tonight, fog is expected to develop this evening with temperatures only dropping into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Expect above-normal temperatures to continue across the region through this weekend until a weak cold front moves into the area next Wednesday.
Marsh fire smoke moving into South Jeff Co
Posted: Nov 30, 2012 2:59 PM CST Updated: Nov 30, 2012 2:59 PM CST
By Patrick Vaughn
Smoke from a marsh fire just across Lake Sabine near Johnson Bayou in Western Cameron Parish is moving into Port Arthur and Mid-County this afternoon. Breezy southeasterly winds are blowing the smoke our way. Pinpoint Doppler Radar shows the smoke plume moving northwestward across Sabine Lake into Port Arthur.
No, climate change is not the reason why I did not win the PowerBall the other night. .............Or, is it???? Hmmmmmmmmmm.
Yep, even the crazy cat lady across the street (I say this with affection, but _wow_, lady) referred to it that way while she studiously raked all of the sycamore leaves into a series of neat piles _square in the rain gutter_ the other day.
"Hear it's gonna be a Pineapple Express. Better get ready!"
*rake rake rake into the gutter*
I had to dig a lot of it out this morning in the downpour while she was still asleep. My yard was fine, but I felt bad for the folks a few doors down who were about to have a flooded truck engine.
We could slow it by introducing more CO2 into the atmosphere and destroy some of the carbon sinks that would remove some of the CO2 from the atmosphere. My understanding is that this is an experiment we are doing on a global scale now. So far, it looks very promising in its ability to lessen the impacts of any impending ice age. We are continuing this experiment to see if we could actually reverse any probability of another impending ice age. So far this experiment looks equally well. ... I'll get back to you later on this.
as i said, the science has been presented numerous times. dr masters has done so many, many times. if you're not convinced at this point 'being nice' isn't going to magically make it happen.
I believe I have even read some studies suggesting that Sacramento could be one of the most at-risk cities for flooding in the nation. Most of the time, it is protected by levees, but if the levees were not there, we would have had numerous damaging floods by now.
the last TWO of 2012 to be issued in an hour or two...however...
we have 91L
Good grief. The image speaks for itself. I'm not making any hidden claim. I've stated many times that the earth has gotten warmer. I'm just not convinced it's all mankinds fault. Furthermore, who voted you the arbitor of all things "scientific" on this blog? The arrogance of you and a few others on this blog is boundless. Look over the graph, comment if you want. The tone of your post is insulting, as usual. When presented with something that doesn't gibe with your point of view, you attack, vilify and belittle. I didn't make the graph. I just presented it in this forum to a deafening silence the 1st time. When I asked for a comment, I get this crap from you. I'm done, for now. I'll prolly get banned for this post. Oh well.
which they OBVIOUSLY didn't read....
...from article linked in 159
An atmospheric river is a narrow conveyor belt of vapor about a mile high that extends thousands of miles from out at sea and can carry as much water as 15 Mississippi Rivers. It strikes as a series of storms that arrive for days or weeks on end. Each storm can dump inches of rain or feet of snow. For more details, see this feature story that Scientific American has just published, written by two experts on these storms.
Scientists discovered atmospheric rivers in 1998 and have only recently characterized them fully enough to allow forecasters to warn of their arrival. They can strike the west coasts of most continents, but California seems to be a prime target. As many as nine small atmospheric rivers reach the state each year, each lasting two to three days, including the famous “pineapple express” storms that come straight from the Hawaii region of the Pacific Ocean. Ironically, although the storms are dangerous, they are also vital; they supply 30 to 50 percent of California’s rain and snow—in the span of about 10 days a year.
this storm is crazy
Well... I'm more the rook when it comes to study, and I'm sure everyone here would love to see it! Just the proof and logistics to back it up... then you become a leader and not a rookie!!!! Hope you can show me and more importantly... the world.) The chickens are happy!
Yeah, it intensified rapidly today.
Its current intensity has been set at 90 knots, but that is entirely too low judging by satellite intensity estimates.
SAB is at T6.0/115 knots and UW-CIMSS is at T6.6/130 knots.
LOL! Roger, will do. Over and out.
Yep. We compete with New Orleans for the title.
I wish I were joking, but I'm not. I looked up the flood maps when I lived right downtown, and my jaw dropped -- those levees ever go, where I was would have had ~10 hours before the water was to the roof. The whole central to north end of the urban core would have no warning.
There was some effort to fix some of the levees after Katrina brought awareness to how sucky it could be. But the Army Corps of Engineers wants to rid the whole river basin of the bigger trees, which is, of course, a major habitat issue. So the whole thing is a little stalled out.
As for the trees/habitat -- it's a mess. I think the Corps is wrong in their policy for this area. I see why they'd get rid of them in hurricane wind type regions, but here, they seem to help stabilize the levees. The levees we've already had break are the delta levees that have no deeper root systems on them, they're bare clay and peat soil levees that hold until they very suddenly do not. Plus, the branches and roots in the river -- they argue that this slows the flow, and they're right about that, but the point is that _there's nowhere for it to go faster, since the delta is tidal.
Mini-turbulence from debris and roots and so on helps prevent the cut banks from just washing out along the American River in particular, when it has major flows -- the thing in a wet year is decent rapids even below Folsom Dam, you don't want it _faster_. Rivers are not pipes, especially with our soils and our delta. Speed up the cresting here and you're just going to flood the other end of Sacto and down into the entire delta.
But they have their policy and they refuse to budge on it. If they had their way, I have a feeling they'd just cement in the entire river system like they did to LA.
Anyway, point being -- it's all a huge clusterbleep of back and forth, and the levees are still in bad shape. We really should have stopped building in the flood plain, but we didn't, so now it's got the older stuff (that's at least mostly highwater homes, people weren't stupid) and 8 bazillion new McMansions and strip malls with no protection if something gives.
We'd be pulling people off of tons of faux-spanish-tile rooftops.
as an anomaly, what mean is it in reference to? 100 years? a 5-year running average?
it's easy to mislead with graphs. do you have a link to information that actually describes this graph? or did you just find a graph and figure it made it look like 'it's gotten cooler since 1998' and posted it?
well 130 kts is a little too high...I 'll put it at 120-130 mph as of right now...impressive storm indeed AND so close to the equator
This is a 115-120mph hurricane, Michael:
Here is Bopha, 130kts probably isn't that bad.
your point is?
That I don't think Bopha is only 120-130mph.
You're making a fallacious assumption that you should see the entire excess heat budget as "temperature" in an air temperature graph.
You won't because of the laws of thermodynamics will cause most of the excess heat to "seek" the coldest places on the planet, which is the arctic and antarctic ice and water.
Using round numbers, the amount of heat required to heat the entire Earth's atmosphere by 1C is about:
5*10^21 Joules.
But the atmosphere only heats by one tenth of one degree per decade, or one hundredth of one degree per year, right now, so we can drop two orders of magnitude off that number right now. to get:
Annual atmospheric heat gain per year required to gain one tenth of a degree per decade:
5*10^19 Joules/year
The amount of energy required to melt a cubic kilometer of water-ice at 0C to liquid water at 0C is:
3.35*10^17 Joules/Km^3.
This number is so large due to the Heat of Fusion of water-ice.
Then multiply that by the known amount of net annual ice melt from both continental ice caps and arctic sea ice.
~750km^3 (sea ice) plus ~340km^3 (land ice) equals 1080km^3 total net loss of ice per year, at least.
1080km^3 * 3.35*10^17 Joules/Km^3 = 3.6*10^20 Joules
This means that AT LEAST about seven times more excess heat goes to pay the heat of fusion for net melting of ice each year than what goes to net temperature increase of the atmosphere.
I haven't even calculated net temperature gain of the liquid water, because it's not needed to make my point.
This means that the atmosphere plus hydrosphere is warming far, far faster than the "temperature" implies.
I don't think its 150 mph either (130kt)
Global.
And it's not "my graph".
2007 actually.
ROLL TIDE
I'm trying multitask and it's not going so well. =P I had 2005 at first but noticed it was 2007 instead, but accidentally put 2008.
Anyways...I corrected my post.
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