The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:50 PM GMT on November 30, 2012

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The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.

Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.


Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.

Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!


Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.

Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.

Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.

Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.

Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.

Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.

It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.

No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.

Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.

The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.

Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.

Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.

The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AussieStorm:


You need to check your research, The last typhoon of Bopha/Pablo strength was Typhoon Mike of 1990. Mike was a Cat 4 Typhoon when it hit the same area as Bopha is forecast to hit.

Also, TS Washi was not moving very quickly. in fact the flash flooding was caused by 10hrs of heavy rain.

How similar is the track of TY Mike.


and forecast track of TY Bopha.


You need to check your maps again. That map shows Mike nicking the NE tip of Mindanao and then heading into the Leyte Gulf and through the Visayas. The forecast map of Bopha you posted is more than a day old, and the current forecast (and it's only 12 hours from landfall now, so that's pretty definite), has it ploughing into central Mindanao.

Thankfully, the coastline there is relatively sparsely populated, but a little ways inland that's not the case.
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Click image for loop.
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Well this has disaster written all over it...



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 DEC 2012 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 7:18:55 N Lon : 129:05:22 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 920.9mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -14.6C Cloud Region Temp : -81.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 98km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.4 degrees


03/0830 UTC 7.2N 129.6E T7.0/7.0 BOPHA -- West Pacific
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7787
Who is going to be right. PAGASA or JTWC??

PAGASA forecast track....


JTWC forecast track...


I hope the JTWC track is correct. less people will be effected by Pablo.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
I'm very worried about the impact that Typhoon Bopha (PABLO) will have on the southern Philippines. In December of last year, Tropical Storm Washi made landfall on very much the same area that is likely to be hit, again, by this storm. Washi triggered multiple landslides and killed at least 1,268 people. Remember that Bopha is a much larger and much stronger storm, so wind damage will be another threat. This is a very non-typhoon-prone region of the Philippines--the last time that a "major" typhoon struck Mindanao was Typhoon Kate of 1970:

In southern Mindanao, over 5,000 houses and other such structures were damaged or destroyed by storm surge, heavy rains and strong winds produced by Typhoon Kate. Damage from the storm was estimated at $50 million, making it one of the costliest typhoons on record at the time. A total of 631 people were confirmed to have been killed by the storm and 284 others were listed as missing. This ranked Kate as the deadliest typhoon to strike the Philippines at the time; however, it has since been surpassed by eighteen other storms.[2] The previous deadliest typhoon was a storm in the 1960s which killed 200 people in Manila.[8] The large loss of life from the typhoon is believed to be related to the lack of tropical cyclone experience for residents in southern Mindanao.[2]

From Wikipedia

Only about two storms have previously made landfall as a significant typhoon on northern Mindanao since 1970 (less than half a dozen in total have skirted the northeast as a category 1), and both caused dozens of casualties. The Philippine government has already started evacuating thousands of people and preparations have begun on the northern coast of the island, in an effort to avoid a repeat of the tragic situation last year, in which the tropical storm struck at night, catching residents off guard. Unfortunately, Bopha may well make landfall in the early morning hours, making it more difficult to stay safe in the midst of the storm.

While Luzon is much more prepared for typhoons, such storms in Mindanao are so infrequent that most of them lead to widescale disaster even for small cyclones.

Link

I have exams coming up but may choose to write a blog entry.


You need to check your research, The last typhoon of Bopha/Pablo strength was Typhoon Mike of 1990. Mike was a Cat 4 Typhoon when it hit the same area as Bopha is forecast to hit.

Also, TS Washi was not moving very quickly. in fact the flash flooding was caused by 10hrs of heavy rain.

How similar is the track of TY Mike.


and forecast track of TY Bopha.
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Good morning/evening all! A balmy 63 degrees here this morning.
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Quoting indianrivguy:
Good mornin' everyone!

Good evening Mr. Aussie!

Morning Mate!

Deep divide at UN climate talks

Countries entered a second week of UN climate talks in Doha deeply divided on key issues even as fresh warnings were issued that rising greenhouse gas levels are putting our planet in peril.

After six days of intense negotiations, observers on Monday said nations were far from agreement on extending the Kyoto Protocol on curbing emissions of Earth-warming gases, mainly carbon dioxide (CO2) produced from burning fossil fuels.

With evidence mounting that man-made climate change is melting polar ice caps and causing sea levels to rise more quickly than feared, poor countries insist the West makes deeper, more urgent emissions cuts under Kyoto and gives more cash to help the third world adapt and cope.

The mechanisms for both remain in dispute.

'The science is clear: further delay would mean the opportunity to avert a global calamity would be irrevocably lost,' the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), a grouping of 43 countries at risk from warming-induced sea level rise, said on Monday.

'We begin the final week of negotiations in Doha with the sober recognition that time is running out to prevent the loss of entire nations and other calamities in our membership and around the world.'

A new study warned Sunday that Earth could be on track for warming above five degrees Celsius (nine degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100 - at least double the two degree Celsius limit being targeted for what scientists hope will be manageable climate change.

Other studies in the past week showed that polar ice cap melt had raised sea levels by nearly half an inch (11 millimetres) over the last two decades, and that Arctic ice had diminished at an unprecedented rate in 2012.

Yet observers say the Doha talks have become stuck, partly over a disagreement within the European Union on whether individual nations should be allowed to hold on to unused emissions quotas - so-called 'hot air' - rather than scrapping them.

These left-over unused emission allowances, estimated to amount to some 13 billion tonnes for all countries put together, were allotted under the first leg of the Kyoto Protocol that runs out on December 31.

EU member Poland and some other countries now insist on carrying the 'hot air' over into a follow up period - a move vehemently opposed by the developing world and countries most at risk of climate change-induced warming.

The surplus allowances can be sold on the carbon market.

'What were billed as mainly procedural talks are showing more controversy than expected,' Greenpeace said of the talks.
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Good mornin' everyone!

Good evening Mr. Aussie!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2541
1061. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
5:00 PM PhST December 3 2012
==============================

Typhoon "PABLO" has maintained its strength and is now threatening Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur Area

At 4:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [948 hPa] located at 7.1°N 129.9°E or 390 km southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots gusting up to 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

State of the sea is rough to phenomenal

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #3
-----------

Mindanao Region
----------------
1. Surigao del Norte
2. Siargao
3. Surigao del Sur
4. Dinagat Province
5. Agusan del Norte
6. Agusan del Sur
7. Misamis Oriental
8. Bukidnon
9. Davao Oriental
10. Compostela Valley
11. Davao del Norte
12. Samal Island

Signal Warning #2
-----------

Visayas Region
-------------
1. Southern Leyte
2. Bohol
3. Southern Cebu
4. Negros Oriental
5. Siquijor

Mindanao Region
----------------
1. Misamis Occidental
2. Lanao del Norte
3. Lanao del Sur
4. North Cotabato
5. Zamboanga del Norte

Signal Warning #1
----------

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Northern Palawan
2. Calamian Grp. Of Islands
3. Cuyo Island

Visayas Region
=============
1. Eastern Samar
2. Western Samar
3. Leyte
4. Biliran
5. Aklan
6. Capiz
7. Antique
8. Iloilo
9. Guimaras
10. Negros Occidental
11. Rest of Cebu
12. Camotes Island

Mindanao Region
================
1. Zamboanga del Sur
2. Maguindanao
3. Sultan Kudarat
4. Sarangani
5. South Cotabato

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-30 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #3 and signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this Typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Eastern Seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
I'm very worried about the impact that Typhoon Bopha (PABLO) will have on the southern Philippines. In December of last year, Tropical Storm Washi made landfall on very much the same area that is likely to be hit, again, by this storm. Washi triggered multiple landslides and killed at least 1,268 people. Remember that Bopha is a much larger and much stronger storm, so wind damage will be another threat. This is a very non-typhoon-prone region of the Philippines--the last time that a "major" typhoon struck Mindanao was Typhoon Kate of 1970:

In southern Mindanao, over 5,000 houses and other such structures were damaged or destroyed by storm surge, heavy rains and strong winds produced by Typhoon Kate. Damage from the storm was estimated at $50 million, making it one of the costliest typhoons on record at the time. A total of 631 people were confirmed to have been killed by the storm and 284 others were listed as missing. This ranked Kate as the deadliest typhoon to strike the Philippines at the time; however, it has since been surpassed by eighteen other storms.[2] The previous deadliest typhoon was a storm in the 1960s which killed 200 people in Manila.[8] The large loss of life from the typhoon is believed to be related to the lack of tropical cyclone experience for residents in southern Mindanao.[2]

From Wikipedia

Only about two storms have previously made landfall as a significant typhoon on northern Mindanao since 1970 (less than half a dozen in total have skirted the northeast as a category 1), and both caused dozens of casualties. The Philippine government has already started evacuating thousands of people and preparations have begun on the northern coast of the island, in an effort to avoid a repeat of the tragic situation last year, in which the tropical storm struck at night, catching residents off guard. Unfortunately, Bopha may well make landfall in the early morning hours, making it more difficult to stay safe in the midst of the storm.

While Luzon is much more prepared for typhoons, such storms in Mindanao are so infrequent that most of them lead to widescale disaster even for small cyclones.

Link

I have exams coming up but may choose to write a blog entry.
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1059. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
That should make JTWC raise the intensity back up to 130 knots with that 6.5 Dvorak.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
1058. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #61
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
15:00 PM JST December 3 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of Mindanao

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (935 hPa) located at 7.0N 130.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Storm Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.6N 125.2E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Overland Mindanao (Philippines)
48 HRS: 11.0N 121.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sulu Sea
72 HRS: 12.7N 119.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Guess I'll join the party. The blog needs shuteye and I do too. 'Nite everyone!
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Quoting wxchaser97:
I finished my local forecast blog.

Good night everyone.


yep..good nite. Am out as well
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I finished my local forecast blog.

Good night everyone.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Aussie, such an awkward PAGASA scan that they made. LOL

Yeah. I was like, what the ....

btw I am watching American Chopper the 9/11 bike got trashed by Hurricane Sandy. Maybe the next episode will be up tomorrow.
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All systems are go.

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1052. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Aussie, such an awkward PAGASA scan that they made. LOL
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

2 preseason (Alberto and Beryl) plus 3 short lived (Chris, Oscar, and Patty). Puts it at 14 named storms. Ill let them off the hook ;)
Probably Joyce and Maybe Florence and Tony would have gone undetected too.
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National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (Philippines)
Severe Weather Bulletin No. 04 for Typhoon "Pablo" (BOPHA)
Issued on 03 December 2012, 11:00AM Link(pdf)
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1049. hydrus
This looks interesting...A ways out tho.
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1048. hydrus
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Careful, Hydrus. Grothar wore that as his wrist watch.
He can with ease, He,s been working out for eons.
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1047. Skyepony (Mod)
BOPHA completing another eye wall replacement, strengthening again..Raw T 7.
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Quoting wxchaser97:


There were ships around Alberto that could've detected a tropical storm since it was pretty close to land.


That too.
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Round two.

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 7.0 7.0
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting KoritheMan:


Beryl would have been detected pre-satellite anyway, since it hit a populated area.


There were ships around Alberto that could've detected a tropical storm since it was pretty close to land.
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The eye continues to clear out on Bopha. It should be re-strengthening.

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Quoting AussieStorm:

I'm in my own pocket, but I do piss in some ones pocket when credit is needed to be given.

Before people get upset and/or I get banned, here is what piss in ya pocket means here in Australia.

1. Aussie expression for giving someone a compliment but at the same time telling them that you are not doing it for an ulterior motive.
Look mate, I'm not trying to piss in your pocket, but you have an awesome car!!

2. Australian expression used when asking a friend or associate for help when they are finding life easy but you your struggling to even get started.
"don't mind if I piss in your pocket do you"
Here in the USA we butter somebody up before we piss in their pocket.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

2 preseason (Alberto and Beryl) plus 3 short lived (Chris, Oscar, and Patty). Puts it at 14 named storms. Ill let them off the hook ;)


Beryl would have been detected pre-satellite anyway, since it hit a populated area.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I doubt CSU considers short-lived storms like Oscar in their seasonal forecasts, which could help explain why their 2012 forecast was so off.

2 preseason (Alberto and Beryl) plus 3 short lived (Chris, Oscar, and Patty). Puts it at 14 named storms. Ill let them off the hook ;)
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video from TyphoonFury

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4AGwcLbr5w&featur e=youtube_gdata_player





James Reynolds @typhoonfury 22m
My "office" for the last 3hrs, damp muggy corridor of the motel editing & uploading footage! It ain't glamourous! pic.twitter.com/6riHiAAw
View photo %uFFFD

James Reynolds @typhoonfury 33m
Seems mobile phone service is down still in Koror right now?
View details %uFFFD

James Reynolds @typhoonfury 46m
Footage now online I shot over last 24hrs of #typhoon #bopha / #Pablo impacting Koror, #Palau - youtube.com/watch?v=V4AGwc%u2026
View summary %uFFFD
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6037
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



.....someone sounds too young to remember that the revolution took place in 1959....

"god-supporting capitalists" were very much the norm in Cuba in 1953 : )


No, not historical facts!! Just kidding, I wanted to throw in Cuba even though I'm well versed in the history. Made more sense than saying the commie storm formed near the USSR. Props for noticing. You get a red star!!
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Quoting Slamguitar:


Well, the only logical choice in that era would be to call it a godless heathen commie storm from Cuba and not give it a name because it has no soul.

:D



.....someone sounds too young to remember that the revolution took place in 1959....

"god-supporting capitalists" were very much the norm in Cuba in 1953 : )
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Quoting AussieStorm:

New Bryan Norcross' Official Blog


darn, for a moment i forgot we are under TWC
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Bopha is likely nearing Category 4 intensity already, if it has not already attained that strength again.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
New Bryan Norcross' Official Blog
a good read.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


what would people say in the before 1953...?


Well, the only logical choice in that era would be to call it a godless heathen commie storm from Cuba and not give it a name because it has no soul.

:D
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I'm in my own pocket, but I do piss in some ones pocket when credit is needed to be given.

Before people get upset and/or I get banned, here is what piss in ya pocket means here in Australia.

1. Aussie expression for giving someone a compliment but at the same time telling them that you are not doing it for an ulterior motive.
Look mate, I'm not trying to piss in your pocket, but you have an awesome car!!

2. Australian expression used when asking a friend or associate for help when they are finding life easy but you your struggling to even get started.
"don't mind if I piss in your pocket do you"


na you're good...it's Sunday here
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Quoting bappit:

I don't think of you as being in anyone's pocket.

I'm in my own pocket, but I do piss in some ones pocket when credit is needed to be given.

Before people get upset and/or I get banned, here is what piss in ya pocket means here in Australia.

1. Aussie expression for giving someone a compliment but at the same time telling them that you are not doing it for an ulterior motive.
Look mate, I'm not trying to piss in your pocket, but you have an awesome car!!

2. Australian expression used when asking a friend or associate for help when they are finding life easy but you your struggling to even get started.
"don't mind if I piss in your pocket do you"
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Quoting Slamguitar:


Well, we do give them names and all. That really makes it easy to personify these storms.


what would people say before 1953...?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Fine, your point is better than mine. Now get off my back, lol (kidding).

Also, "personality"? Come on, that almost makes them sound... human.


Well, we do give them names and all. That really makes it easy to personify these storms.
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Quoting Slamguitar:


Um, so they are completely sure of when each specific long-lived tropical storm and hurricane is going to spin-up in their preseason forecast??

You could say they're pointlessly inflating all their numbers because we don't know specifically when each TC will form.

I wouldn't regard it as pointlessly inflating numbers. If they've been consistently short on their numbers, they need to adapt. After all, it's a numerical forecast that doesn't tell anything about the personality/character of the storms.

Tropical cyclone = tropical cyclone. All are equal in these forecasts.


Fine, your point is better than mine. Now get off my back, lol (kidding).

Also, "personality"? Come on, that almost makes them sound... human.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It's not a matter of if we'll have any, it's a question of how well we are able to predict them en masse. No need for them to pointlessly inflate their numbers when these storms spin up at a moment's notice.


Um, so they are completely sure of when each specific long-lived tropical storm and hurricane is going to spin-up in their preseason forecast??

You could say they're pointlessly inflating all their numbers because we don't know specifically when each TC will form.

I wouldn't regard it as pointlessly inflating numbers. If they've been consistently short on their numbers, they need to adapt. After all, it's a numerical forecast that doesn't tell anything about the personality/character of the storms.

Tropical cyclone = tropical cyclone. All are equal in these forecasts.
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Quoting Slamguitar:


I could tell you right now there will be at least one short-lived TC in 2013, and I would most likely end up right. Is that too complex for CSU?


It's not a matter of if we'll have any, it's a question of how well we are able to predict them en masse. No need for them to pointlessly inflate their numbers when these storms spin up at a moment's notice.
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Yup.

A 3% annual growth rate in annual CO2 production would result in a doubling of annual CO2 production in 24 years if it is exponential (possibly, since population growth is exponential,) or 34 years, obviously, if it is linear, which is unlikely.


I think the slope of the Keeling Curve will be plus 8PPM/year if our CO2 production was to double, seeing as how the environment only absorbs about 4 PPM/year out of the 6 or so humans currently produce, giving a current net slope of about plus 2PPM/year.

So doubling CO2 production will quadruple the net slope of the Keeling Curve...which could apparently happen in as little as 24 to 34 years...
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1023. bappit
Quoting AussieStorm:


%u54E6%uFF0C%u5929%u54EA%uFF0C%u4F60%u6293%u5230%u 6211%u4E86%u3002

I don't think of you as being in anyone's pocket.
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As some here may remember, this year I oddly incorporated butterflies into my hurricane forecast.

Unlike all the experts we heard from, on April 5, 2012 I pointed to an unusual number of storms this year, which turned out to be "bizarrely" correct.

However, if you had been paying careful attention, my forecast was atypical in other respects, as well.



As the Atlantic season progresses, the experts like to issue updates. Likewise, I issued an update, immediately after hurricane Isaac made landfall.

It curiously reads as follows:
Post 1140 OracleDeAtlantis August 30, 2012

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
You have to first ask the question, what do butterflies have to do with hurricane forcasting? It is a strange thing to say, after all.


"What you should be asking now, is what comes, when the butterflies leave."



Typically in North America the butterflies "leave" when the first frost appears. Note that I didn't say "die," so there's only one species I could have been referring to.

Because of the prolonged record drought in the Midwest, this years Monarch butterfly fall migration was unusually small, and heavily concentrated in a certain part of North America. It was so small that you would probably have to go back to the Dust Bowl to find another year like it. There were just a fraction this year when compared to last. The drought had decimated their numbers.

As you see from studying previous published years, 2012 was a very unusual year for the fall migration of the Monarch. The relatively few roosts were most heavily concentrated, precisely where hurricane Sandy would make landfall.






So the next time you wonder why I use the migration of hummingbirds and butterflies in my hurricane forecasts, perhaps you'll look a little closer, because if you had been paying careful attention to my update here, not only would you have had a clue of when, but where the next U.S. landfall would take place.

Long before we became industrialized, Native Americans paid careful attention to animal signs, using them to navigate a difficult environment.

Now, as we find ourselves in ever increasing peril, let U.S. listen again to those we share our environment with; for their voices can shatter mountains.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


As far as I know, considering such storms is not a part of their methodology, mainly because you really can't predict them.


I could tell you right now there will be at least one short-lived TC in 2013, and I would most likely end up right. Is that too complex for CSU?
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Quoting bappit:
All the deniers on the blog must be in the pocket of the Chinese government. LOL


哦,天哪,你抓到我了。
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.