The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close
The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.
Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.
Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.
Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.
Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.
Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!
Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.
Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.
Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.
Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.
Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.
Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.
It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.
No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.
Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.
The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.
Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.
Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.
The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Since none of the AGW crowd commented on it I asked about it later and only ScottL replied.
Quoting ScottLincoln
..The graphic in post 782 is not particularly relevant to the current discussion because is comparing two different physical quantities on incorrect timescales.
The hidden claim made by posting that graph is that monthly temperature anomalies should respond in a linear way to linear changes to climate forcings, and those changes will both occur and be noticeable on monthly timestep data. The second hidden claim is that because the first claim does not appear to be occurring (through visual "eye-balling"), the conclusion should be that CO2 is not changing climate. Climate does not behave this way. At all. If you know anything about climate, you would know this.
To do a proper comparison for relevant discussion, the temperature anomaly data should - at a minimum - be averaged over 5yr or 10yr time periods, and put into a bar graph. The same could be done with the CO2 data but it would not be expected. Also required would be information about the source of the temperature data so that proper caveats could be taken knowing the uncertainties and assumptions of that particular data set.
Replace the graph with a proper one and we'll discuss.
Here's the
How to be a good AGW alarmist post From Funnelvortex this morning.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
How to be a good AGW alarmist.
1. Present your theory.
2. When evidence is presented against your theory, say its been debunked. If the opponent demands to see the study, call bullstuff.
3. Give the sceptics a bad name, like "denialist"
4. Generalize the sceptics as conservitive, creationist, radical republicans who dont care about the Earth.
5. If a person presents hard evidence against AGW, say they are "uncredible" because they dont have a PHD. Or if they do have a PHD, call them an idiot.
6. Push all opposing scientists aside.
7. State your opinion like its fact.
8. If all else fails, preach about how much CO2 the average person produces and ask if we should just "ignore it" or if it will just "go away" (even though it does).
I'd say FV has the right idea.
Well, yeah, it is, but those folks are going to avoid the science either way. Doesn't really matter.
The folks who are still picking up on just what's going on, or are at least slightly open to looking at the science, those are the folks I'm more interested in. And for them, presentation does probably matter some, just to cut through the ideology stuff, which gets kind of oddly tribal or something -- often much more about personal relationships than one might think as a rational matter.
People do listen better to ideas from people they generally like and respect.
The other set -- the set you're talking about -- they've got such a deep, personal stake of some kind in their preformed opinion that I do fully predict some of them will be shouting about how it's just another sun spot or some such no matter what level of change we actually witness. But they're not everybody.
not only don't they want to listen, but they're wasting your time, and lowering your ability to deal with higher order issues. moms of little kids complain about how dumb they feel after communicating with small minds all day. and they turn into a pack if there's more than a few of them.
The National Weather Service in Reno has issued a
* Flood Warning for
the Truckee River near Truckee.
* From late Saturday night to Monday morning... or until the warning
is cancelled.
* At 8:30 am Friday the stage was 2.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 4.5 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... rise above flood stage by early Sunday morning and
continue to rise to near 8.2 feet by late Sunday morning. The river
will fall below flood stage by Sunday evening.
* Impact... at 8.0 feet... major flood damage to homes... roads and
bridges along Truckee River between squaw creek and Truckee. Like
flood of December 23 1955... about 7800 cfs.
What.... 'tornadoes'?????
WTPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 4.4N 143.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.4N 143.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 5.1N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 5.8N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 6.4N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 7.0N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 8.4N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 9.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 11.3N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 4.6N 142.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//
NNNN
and didn't i just see a forecast loop showing it aiming straight at you after a few days?
it's no joke - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15032614
I posted a reply. You must have missed it. The reply was:
Either
1) The graph shows there has been no warming since 1998.
2) The graph is a denier hoax.
Here's another graph. Note how global temperature fluctuates. This fluctuation will continue in a warming world. However, with increasing warming, downward fluctuations will be masked by the warming trend.
Polar Ice Sheets Shrinking Worldwide, Study Confirms
Link
I will:)
And it has model support....
CMC
Euro
GFS
NOGAPS
sorry, what?
Link
What is the strongest level of typhoon to ever occur near the equator? Or lowest latitudinal value for either side of the hemisphere? I can't find anything on Google yet. #^&$!
But what happens during the next ice age? Our current technology can’t halt glaciers from first blanketing continents and then sweeping them clean.
We still don’t know to what degree human activity can affect the climate one way or the other. But if we had to err in one direction shouldn’t we prefer warming to cooling?
We got monsoonal moisture -- not much, but still like 5 times -- over the summer, too. Rare here, it usually sticks to the east side of the Sierra or _maybe_ some indirect hits to socal.
I really needed to go pick up some medications today, but I'm hearing the 8th nasty set of sirens in the last half hour or so, so I'm thinking I'm going to make like the cats and sink into a comfortable cushiony thing someplace. Californians (outside of Eureka) have no idea how to drive in rain.
The one month precip shows, among other things, continued heavy precip in the Pacific NW:
Just my analogy of your comment on kids. Did not follow your prior links. But I laugh at this because lots of kids are like little tornadoes, nothing stops them and they can be sooooo unpredictable:)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
3:00 AM JST December 1 2012
=======================================
SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon Near Caroline Islands
At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (965 hPa) located at 4.4N 142.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T4.5
Storm Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southern quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 5.7N 139.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Caroline Island
48 HRS: 7.0N 135.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Caroline Island
72 HRS: 8.3N 130.5E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East of Mindanao (Philippines)
Absolutely. It should be required reading for some of the folks here.
The problem is that we're pretty rangebound, ultimately. Anything that puts us outside of the range for the crops we like to eat and so on is bad.
Warmer is going to mean more energetic weather systems, too, and greater moisture held in the atmosphere some places (less in others, no doubt).
Colder, I dunno. Probably a lot more dry but windy/harsh, a lot of places, and of course freezing to death is no joke.
Neither is good for growing crops. What's even worse for growing crops, though, is _totally unpredictable_ from being destabilized, which is where I suspect we're going to spend a while either way as the atmosphere struggles to "find" a new equilibrium somewhere. When you pull a complex system like this out of whack, until it finds a comfy range again, it's likely to just be a chaotic mess.
"Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions."
--Thomas Jefferson
You didn't just post the image to post the image, you posted it to make a hidden claim. I told you what you needed to do to present the information in a scientifically accurate manner so that you could make scientifically accurate conclusions. It was not a particularly hard thing to do, in fact you could do it in excel.
It is going to be hard for actual scientists who do actual analysis of actual science to take you seriously until you actually put some effort into doing it correctly. Perhaps you just do not want to display the data correctly because you do not want to see what it will show?
I guess people just get invested in some sort of identity thing: Mention to an Obamanite that their illustrious leader is busting medical pot operations and authorizing things like the NDAA and they go blank or go into denial. Mention "Building 7" to someone that still believes that America is still what it perhaps never was, and they go into fits, refusing to even consider the data, which is rock solid to the effect that the given explanation is not even remotely true Link. Mention to a BP exec that their operations are unsafe and they have no idea what you are talking about! Mention to a catholic, "You know, Father McClousky certainly does spend a lot of time with the boys.... campouts and everything!" ...and they still say, "Oh, Isn't that nice...!~"
These are all great opportunities to study people stuck in belief systems that absolutely blind them to the facts that are obvious to everyone not so blinkered. How do you get through? It is like dealing with a cult member .... is there some sort of Stockholm Syndrome....? Or... what is it? Whatever it is, the effect is as solid in Science as it is in religion, politics, or economics. Those last three are full of smoke and mirrors.... but Science?
Recent estimates have indicated that the energy imbalance from the human-altered greenhouse effect overwhelms the solar radiation drop from the Maunder Minimum within about 2-3 years. My understanding is that it only takes 10-20 years at this pace to completely cancel the known effects of the Milankovich cycles. In summary... we've likely postponed future ice ages indefinitely, at least those caused under the typical circumstances.
Weather still looks perfect!
It'll be fun, as long as the Bulldogs win.
Next coldfront is lackluster:
Let's Go Georgia!
soylent green. sorry don't know wht's come over me here.
It is the leading cause of fire deaths. Just as cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of overall deaths at around 30% world wide, but certainly is not the sole cause. There is no other single cause that takes more lives.
US coastal cities in danger as sea levels rise faster than expected, study warns
Satellite measurements show flooding from storms like Sandy will put low-lying population centres at risk sooner than projected
Link
Hardcore denial types, I agree with you, ultimately.
I joke that where I live is the midwest of CA. It's kind of true (I'm concerned about tornadoes a little later, actually, ha.)
And I know a lot of folks who aren't the super invested denial types, but who have gotten a lot of crappy information over time, or who haven't paid much attention overall because they've written the whole thing off as just another political back-and-forth, but who are still open to hearing about it and rethinking. Especially now that everything is looking a little haywire in ways that can't be easily tossed aside anymore.
Those are the people that matter now. Those are the people I try to talk to.
The denialists are largely a waste of breath, though I still do try to give them a number of tries before I decide they're too invested in the political identity involved to actually think past "winning the argument." At some point, heh, yeah. They'll get to tell themselves how right they were while the world falls down on their heads, I guess.
My goal is to sideline them in favor of the people still interested in what's true.
Climate Science as Culture War
The public debate around climate change is no longer about science—it’s about values, culture, and ideology.
Link
Eads wasn't started until 1867, finished 1874. My family passed under it in 1873 on their way to Florida in a 28 ft. sloop. ( which is why I would know such a superfluous fact) It looked like this in 1873;
I was looking around and found this;
Drought could make Mississippi impassable to barges just as 2012 harvest heads to market
By Jim Suhr And Jim Salter, The Associated Press November 29, 2012
From this article, water wars.. there will be more;
To Sen. Claire McCaskill, a Missouri Democrat, the stakes couldn't be higher.
"There is going to be a dramatic ripple effect to our economy if the barge traffic grinds to halt, which clearly it will if something is not done to avert this crisis," she said.
Her Missouri colleague in the Senate, Republican Roy Blunt, acknowledged "friction" between upper Missouri River interests that control the flow and those downstream on the lower Missouri and Mississippi rivers. He said the corps "needs to manage that balance."
snip
A two-month shutdown — the length of time that some observers fear given current conditions — would have an estimated impact of $7 billion, according to the river industry trade group American Waterways Operators./quote
Add a dry 7 billion to the cost of the drought.
I read this the other day... good article!
I know I'll be keeping an eye on which of my friends look tastiest, myself. ;)
No, really, I've thought to myself a number of times while driving through the Donner Pass -- what inspires people to put a town here?
"People ate each other here. I know, let's build a town!"
I agree 100% with this statement. The segments of the population that are willing to listen would be more willing to listen when the information is given in a non confrontational way. Those that refuse to listen do not really care how the information is provided to them. They still will not listen and only complain it is because of how it was presented to them. As disingenuous as it would be for them to say this, they would still use this as an excuse to avoid the discussion of the science itself. What is more worrisome to me is that the vast majority of the people here have a very good understanding of science in general. ... So the obvious question now is how they could so easily overlook the obvious??? ... Dunno
I'm sorry but that really made me laugh out loud...
Is that wrong? ;-)
For some, I think that just gets straight-up at identity. Once you have a set view of yourself and the "other side," it's much, much harder to break through that stuff and start actually getting at what _seems to be true_ rather than _what makes the other side wrong_.
People do this on a lot of different subjects, and I actually think it has gotten worse in this country (maybe in other countries, dunno) over the last decade or two.
It's about teams now, for a large number of people. It's a nasty dynamic. I hope we can break out of it sooner, rather than later.
Even as a kid, I remember thinking that the kids who scared me most were the other ones on the playground who could never say "I don't agree" to their own bestest friends.
But, you know. When you're a Jet, you're a Jet all the way...
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