The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close
The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.
Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.
Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.
Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.
Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.
Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!
Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.
Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.
Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.
Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.
Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.
Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.
It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.
No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.
Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.
The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.
Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.
Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.
The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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no..he said it first... don't try to steal his credit
Disregard what I said. Water temperatures are warmer than 26C. My bad.
The Dvorak technique numbers someone posted a few posts above.
Although I have a mac 21.5" 2011 and I have no need of going to windows live to check for my e-mails because I have the mail-app install (some of you who has a mac would understand)
so I went to see my hotmail account and to my surprise I have 21,933 new e-mails!!!!
I wasn't... nor did I copy what he said. Yes, he did say it first, but we had a similar idea within the same minute.
still...he said what you said afterwards..I love arguing, go on
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
11:00 AM PhST December 3 2012
==============================
Typhoon "PABLO" has maintained its strength and is now heading towards Surigao Provinces
At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [948 hPa] located at 6.9°N 131.4°E or 550 km southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots gusting up to 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.
State of the sea is rough to phenomenal
Signal Warnings
==============
Signal Warning #3
-----------
Mindanao Region
----------------
1. Surigao del Sur
2. Surigao del Norte
3. Siargao
4. Dinagat
5. Agusan del Norte
6. Agusan del Sur
7. Davao Oriental
Signal Warning #2
-----------
Visayas Region
-------------
1. Southern Leyte
2. Bohol
Mindanao Region
----------------
1. Camiguin
2. Misamis Oriental
3. Bukidnon
4. Davao del Norte
5. Compostela Valley
Signal Warning #1
----------
Luzon Region
-------------
1. Cuyo Island
Visayas Region
=============
1. Eastern Samar
2. Western Samar
3. Leyte
4. Biliran
5. Aklan
6. Capiz
7. Antique
8. Iloilo
9. Guimaras
10. Negros Occidental
11. Negros Oriental
12. Cebu
13. Siquijor
Mindanao Region
================
1. Zamboanga Provinces
2. Lanao Provinces
3. Davao del Sur
4. North Cotabato
5. Maguindanao
Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-30 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #3 and signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this Typhoon.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern Seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
But it is too pointless to go on with arguing, literally too pointless.
They should just throw in a few to compensate. We all know there will be a few TCs that will be named in our satellite era that otherwise wouldn't have.
They need to catch on, lol.
well then...cut it right here
A tropical cyclone is a tropical cyclone, regardless of how long or short it lasts. If they did not take into account that the 2012 season would not see short-lived and/or frontal storms, then maybe they should start from here on out.
As far as I know, considering such storms is not a part of their methodology, mainly because you really can't predict them.
The U.S. probably reduced our numbers by hypocritically outsourcing labor and other manufacturing processes to China.
China is actually outpacing the U.S. in alternative energy production as well. In fact, many of the wind turbines deployed in the U.S. are manufactured in China.
China's main problem is their population is so large. They are doubling their wind and solar deployments every year or so, and their CO2 emissions are still rising because their rate of modernization is higher than the rate of growth of alternative energies deployment. So it will take several decades before they can come into balance from the top to bottom of their civilization.
Seeing how world population increases by more than 1% per year, and other people are modernizing, and they have just as much right to burn dead plants as the west does, this is unlikely to change in the short term.
If the U.S. cut our pollution in half, and all the rest of Africa and Middle East and Far East increased their living standards to match the average of the U.S., Europe, and Japan, the word would actually be far worse off. Yet those people in "developing" and "undeveloped" nations have just as much right to high technology as we do.
Just wait till the people in central Africa get out of the stone age, and a larger chunk of people in China and Pakistan and other backwards civilizations get electricity and automobiles! Global production rates for CO2 and other pollution will probably double!
Heavy squall lashing Koror right now, back end feeder back from #typhoon #bopha
James Reynolds @typhoonfury 10m
Hearing reports of heavy storm surge damage in Melekeok village in NE of largest island in Palau, try head there this pm #typhoon #bopha
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I could tell you right now there will be at least one short-lived TC in 2013, and I would most likely end up right. Is that too complex for CSU?
Unlike all the experts we heard from, on April 5, 2012 I pointed to an unusual number of storms this year, which turned out to be "bizarrely" correct.
However, if you had been paying careful attention, my forecast was atypical in other respects, as well.
As the Atlantic season progresses, the experts like to issue updates. Likewise, I issued an update, immediately after hurricane Isaac made landfall.
It curiously reads as follows:
Post 1140 OracleDeAtlantis August 30, 2012
Typically in North America the butterflies "leave" when the first frost appears. Note that I didn't say "die," so there's only one species I could have been referring to.
Because of the prolonged record drought in the Midwest, this years Monarch butterfly fall migration was unusually small, and heavily concentrated in a certain part of North America. It was so small that you would probably have to go back to the Dust Bowl to find another year like it. There were just a fraction this year when compared to last. The drought had decimated their numbers.
As you see from studying previous published years, 2012 was a very unusual year for the fall migration of the Monarch. The relatively few roosts were most heavily concentrated, precisely where hurricane Sandy would make landfall.
So the next time you wonder why I use the migration of hummingbirds and butterflies in my hurricane forecasts, perhaps you'll look a little closer, because if you had been paying careful attention to my update here, not only would you have had a clue of when, but where the next U.S. landfall would take place.
Long before we became industrialized, Native Americans paid careful attention to animal signs, using them to navigate a difficult environment.
Now, as we find ourselves in ever increasing peril, let U.S. listen again to those we share our environment with; for their voices can shatter mountains.
I don't think of you as being in anyone's pocket.
A 3% annual growth rate in annual CO2 production would result in a doubling of annual CO2 production in 24 years if it is exponential (possibly, since population growth is exponential,) or 34 years, obviously, if it is linear, which is unlikely.
I think the slope of the Keeling Curve will be plus 8PPM/year if our CO2 production was to double, seeing as how the environment only absorbs about 4 PPM/year out of the 6 or so humans currently produce, giving a current net slope of about plus 2PPM/year.
So doubling CO2 production will quadruple the net slope of the Keeling Curve...which could apparently happen in as little as 24 to 34 years...
It's not a matter of if we'll have any, it's a question of how well we are able to predict them en masse. No need for them to pointlessly inflate their numbers when these storms spin up at a moment's notice.
Um, so they are completely sure of when each specific long-lived tropical storm and hurricane is going to spin-up in their preseason forecast??
You could say they're pointlessly inflating all their numbers because we don't know specifically when each TC will form.
I wouldn't regard it as pointlessly inflating numbers. If they've been consistently short on their numbers, they need to adapt. After all, it's a numerical forecast that doesn't tell anything about the personality/character of the storms.
Tropical cyclone = tropical cyclone. All are equal in these forecasts.
Fine, your point is better than mine. Now get off my back, lol (kidding).
Also, "personality"? Come on, that almost makes them sound... human.
Well, we do give them names and all. That really makes it easy to personify these storms.
what would people say before 1953...?
I'm in my own pocket, but I do piss in some ones pocket when credit is needed to be given.
Before people get upset and/or I get banned, here is what piss in ya pocket means here in Australia.
1. Aussie expression for giving someone a compliment but at the same time telling them that you are not doing it for an ulterior motive.
Look mate, I'm not trying to piss in your pocket, but you have an awesome car!!
2. Australian expression used when asking a friend or associate for help when they are finding life easy but you your struggling to even get started.
"don't mind if I piss in your pocket do you"
na you're good...it's Sunday here
Well, the only logical choice in that era would be to call it a godless heathen commie storm from Cuba and not give it a name because it has no soul.
:D
a good read.
darn, for a moment i forgot we are under TWC
.....someone sounds too young to remember that the revolution took place in 1959....
"god-supporting capitalists" were very much the norm in Cuba in 1953 : )
No, not historical facts!! Just kidding, I wanted to throw in Cuba even though I'm well versed in the history. Made more sense than saying the commie storm formed near the USSR. Props for noticing. You get a red star!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4AGwcLbr5w&featur e=youtube_gdata_player
James Reynolds @typhoonfury 22m
My "office" for the last 3hrs, damp muggy corridor of the motel editing & uploading footage! It ain't glamourous! pic.twitter.com/6riHiAAw
View photo %uFFFD
James Reynolds @typhoonfury 33m
Seems mobile phone service is down still in Koror right now?
View details %uFFFD
James Reynolds @typhoonfury 46m
Footage now online I shot over last 24hrs of #typhoon #bopha / #Pablo impacting Koror, #Palau - youtube.com/watch?v=V4AGwc%u2026
View summary %uFFFD
2 preseason (Alberto and Beryl) plus 3 short lived (Chris, Oscar, and Patty). Puts it at 14 named storms. Ill let them off the hook ;)
Beryl would have been detected pre-satellite anyway, since it hit a populated area.
There were ships around Alberto that could've detected a tropical storm since it was pretty close to land.
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 7.0 7.0
That too.
Severe Weather Bulletin No. 04 for Typhoon "Pablo" (BOPHA)
Issued on 03 December 2012, 11:00AM Link(pdf)
Viewing: 1001 - 1051
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