The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:50 PM GMT on November 30, 2012

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The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.

Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.


Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.

Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!


Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.

Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.

Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.

Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.

Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.

Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.

It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.

No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.

Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.

The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.

Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.

Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.

The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting yoboi:



let's just blame ever event on climate change...that's what is going on now.....


No, climate change is not the reason why I did not win the PowerBall the other night. .............Or, is it???? Hmmmmmmmmmm.
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It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas. ;)


Spring-like weather the rest of the afternoon

Posted: Nov 30, 2012 1:34 PM CST Updated: Nov 30, 2012 1:34 PM CST
By Patrick Vaughn

It will feel more like Spring this afternoon rather than Late Fall.

The rest of this afternoon, temperatures will continue in the lower 70s across Southeast Texas under mostly cloudy skies. A 10 to 20% coverage of light rain showers can be expected. Breezy southeasterly winds will continue to pump gulf moisture into the area.

Tonight, fog is expected to develop this evening with temperatures only dropping into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Expect above-normal temperatures to continue across the region through this weekend until a weak cold front moves into the area next Wednesday.


Marsh fire smoke moving into South Jeff Co

Posted: Nov 30, 2012 2:59 PM CST Updated: Nov 30, 2012 2:59 PM CST
By Patrick Vaughn



Smoke from a marsh fire just across Lake Sabine near Johnson Bayou in Western Cameron Parish is moving into Port Arthur and Mid-County this afternoon. Breezy southeasterly winds are blowing the smoke our way. Pinpoint Doppler Radar shows the smoke plume moving northwestward across Sabine Lake into Port Arthur.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Mysterious Atmospheric River Soaks California, Where Megaflood May Be Overdue

By Mark Fischett November 30, 2012

Northern California is experiencing the first days of what weather forecasters are warning will be a long series of torrential rainstorms that could cause serious flooding across the northern one-third of the state. The relentless storms are being driven by a feature in the atmosphere you have probably never heard of: an atmospheric river.

Oh, and another atmospheric river created the worst flooding since the 1960s in western England and Wales this past week, where more than 1,000 homes had to be evacuated.

...
The real scare, however, is that truly massive atmospheric rivers that cause catastrophic flooding seem to hit the state about once every 200 years, according to evidence recently pieced together. The last megaflood was in 1861; rains arrived for 43 days, obliterating Sacramento and bankrupting the state. The disaster is largely forgotten, but the same region is now home to more than six million people. Simulations of a 23-day storm there indicate that more than $400 billion of damage and losses would occur, far surpassing the $60 billion estimates for Hurricane Sandy's effects. New research also shows that climate change may make these storms more likely to occur.


more at:
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/ 2012/11/30/mysterious-atmospheric-river/


The flooding then in Sacramento then is why they rebuilt it higher -- they raised the whole street level.

It's still a flood prone city -- two of three major river systems come right together at downtown. The whole north end of it is protected by some crappy levees, too, and a whole lot of that is newer development that hasn't done jack for floods.

The Sacramento river is already going to start filling some of the bypasses upstream from us, knock on lots of wood that the levees here hold up if those fill.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Ah!, but we have the knowledge, technology and will power to alleviate the worst of the effects of another approaching ice age. We could just do what we are currently doing now to avoid the worst impacts of an impending ice age. Maybe with only slightly more enthusiasm?
Really? Are you an inventor? What would you do.... annnd could you stop it? Enthusiasm is for movies. This is not a silly venue and needs to be taken seriously. Sorry, off to put my chickens to bed and cook a real dinner... not one from a box either!
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Mysterious Atmospheric River Soaks California, Where Megaflood May Be Overdue

By Mark Fischett November 30, 2012

Northern California is experiencing the first days of what weather forecasters are warning will be a long series of torrential rainstorms that could cause serious flooding across the northern one-third of the state. The relentless storms are being driven by a feature in the atmosphere you have probably never heard of: an atmospheric river.

Oh, and another atmospheric river created the worst flooding since the 1960s in western England and Wales this past week, where more than 1,000 homes had to be evacuated.

...
The real scare, however, is that truly massive atmospheric rivers that cause catastrophic flooding seem to hit the state about once every 200 years, according to evidence recently pieced together. The last megaflood was in 1861; rains arrived for 43 days, obliterating Sacramento and bankrupting the state. The disaster is largely forgotten, but the same region is now home to more than six million people. Simulations of a 23-day storm there indicate that more than $400 billion of damage and losses would occur, far surpassing the $60 billion estimates for Hurricane Sandy's effects. New research also shows that climate change may make these storms more likely to occur.


more at:
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/ 2012/11/30/mysterious-atmospheric-river/
I don't know how mysterious it is, I have heard it called the Pineapple Express since I can remember and that is quite awhile
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Thanks IndianRiver, seemed early, misread what they meant when went back to article - "The numbers are an arbitrary creation from 1863, but the “zero” reading means there is only about 14 feet of water running beneath the Eads Bridge."
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The sun rises over Bopha. Impressive view of eye.

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Quoting LargoFl:
everyone is arguing about GW..just imagine..what the future would be..IF..it was the other way around..ICE building towards another ice age..if you think prices alone..for food stuffs etc is high now..just wait..roads impassable, ports frozen solid..power outages all over the place, poles down winter storms so severe, snowfall in feet, never melting,imagine the lay offs..imagine below zero temps everywhere..lasting hundreds of years..global Warming might indeed be bad BUT..a frozen earth most of us wouldnt be here for very long


Ah!, but we have the knowledge, technology and will power to alleviate the worst of the effects of another approaching ice age. We could just do what we are currently doing now to avoid the worst impacts of an impending ice age. Maybe with only slightly more enthusiasm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mysterious Atmospheric River Soaks California, Where Megaflood May Be Overdue

By Mark Fischett November 30, 2012

Northern California is experiencing the first days of what weather forecasters are warning will be a long series of torrential rainstorms that could cause serious flooding across the northern one-third of the state. The relentless storms are being driven by a feature in the atmosphere you have probably never heard of: an atmospheric river.

Oh, and another atmospheric river created the worst flooding since the 1960s in western England and Wales this past week, where more than 1,000 homes had to be evacuated.

...
The real scare, however, is that truly massive atmospheric rivers that cause catastrophic flooding seem to hit the state about once every 200 years, according to evidence recently pieced together. The last megaflood was in 1861; rains arrived for 43 days, obliterating Sacramento and bankrupting the state. The disaster is largely forgotten, but the same region is now home to more than six million people. Simulations of a 23-day storm there indicate that more than $400 billion of damage and losses would occur, far surpassing the $60 billion estimates for Hurricane Sandy's effects. New research also shows that climate change may make these storms more likely to occur.


more at:
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/ 2012/11/30/mysterious-atmospheric-river/
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
Poof! Sunshine.
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


A somewhat sick sense of humor is a sign of health, as far as I'm concerned. ;)

There's a big campsite up there, too, I often think it would be a pretty funny place for some snow camping. But I don't have the gear right now, it really _is_ snowy as all get out up there in the winter. I can see why it was hell to get through.

Totally aside, the guy who got blamed most for the cannibalism -- unfairly, at that -- is buried not far from where I live. He was largely shunned, but managed to start a decent little German-style brewery here in Sacramento. I guess that making a good lager can transcend even cannibalism.

I keep meaning to go find his grave and drink a toast to the poor fella.
Cheers! My Mom came from Ireland when 19. I am Irish, German and Scotch. And as she was Northern Ireland... could I hope to have some 'Antlantean' ancestery? ha.. love your post.
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Quoting etxwx:


I'm sorry but that really made me laugh out loud...

Is that wrong? ;-)


A somewhat sick sense of humor is a sign of health, as far as I'm concerned. ;)

There's a big campsite up there, too, I often think it would be a pretty funny place for some snow camping. But I don't have the gear right now, it really _is_ snowy as all get out up there in the winter. I can see why it was hell to get through.

Totally aside, the guy who got blamed most for the cannibalism -- unfairly, at that -- is buried not far from where I live. He was largely shunned, but managed to start a decent little German-style brewery here in Sacramento. I guess that making a good lager can transcend even cannibalism.

I keep meaning to go find his grave and drink a toast to the poor fella.
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Quoting LargoFl:
found this note.......If the earth’s climate grows significantly warmer we will probably have to deal with rising sea levels and more severe weather. But these are changes that both human civilization and planetary ecosystems can take in stride. Over the course of decades people will move inland, build more weather-resistant structures, and shift agricultural production to increasingly fertile regions.

But what happens during the next ice age? Our current technology can’t halt glaciers from first blanketing continents and then sweeping them clean.

We still don’t know to what degree human activity can affect the climate one way or the other. But if we had to err in one direction shouldn’t we prefer warming to cooling?


Couple problems with that:
"these are changes that both human civilization and planetary ecosystems can take in stride".

Nope. Part of the reason we're worried about extinction is that the rate of warming and latitudinal migration of climate regimes is far outpacing the rates at which certain plants and animals can adapt or migrate; let alone species that are isolated in mountain ranges in southern latitudes (think the pika, for example). There are pockets of "northern" forests in the Southern Appalachians that are holdovers from the last Ice Age; this speaks to the gradual nature of warming after the last peak. We're talking significantly different rates of processes this time around.

"Our current technology can’t halt glaciers from first blanketing continents and then sweeping them clean. We still don’t know to what degree human activity can affect the climate one way or the other."

I left these together because the second statment is exactly what we've spent the last couple decades figuring out, so we have at this point a pretty good idea how to stop a global cooldown - try pumping a lot of CO2 into the atmosphere. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, that's the experiment we've been running on this planet.
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Quoting nymore:
here you go from a poes orbiting satellite



BTW they are free for everyone with the right antenna and tuner. NOAA 19, NOAA 18 and NOAA 15. you can even take a cheap scanner get the frequency go out side when they come over and hear the tell tale tick tock
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Quoting etxwx:


I'm sorry but that really made me laugh out loud...

Is that wrong? 
Quoting stormchaser19:
Nice eye on her!
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Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I agree 100% with this statement. The segments of the population that are willing to listen would be more willing to listen when the information is given in a non confrontational way. Those that refuse to listen do not really care how the information is provided to them. They still will not listen and only complain it is because of how it was presented to them. As disingenuous as it would be for them to say this, they would still use this as an excuse to avoid the discussion of the science itself. What is more worrisome to me is that the vast majority of the people here have a very good understanding of science in general. ... So the obvious question now is how they could so easily overlook the obvious??? ... Dunno


For some, I think that just gets straight-up at identity. Once you have a set view of yourself and the "other side," it's much, much harder to break through that stuff and start actually getting at what _seems to be true_ rather than _what makes the other side wrong_.

People do this on a lot of different subjects, and I actually think it has gotten worse in this country (maybe in other countries, dunno) over the last decade or two.

It's about teams now, for a large number of people. It's a nasty dynamic. I hope we can break out of it sooner, rather than later.

Even as a kid, I remember thinking that the kids who scared me most were the other ones on the playground who could never say "I don't agree" to their own bestest friends.

But, you know. When you're a Jet, you're a Jet all the way...
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150. etxwx
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


I know I'll be keeping an eye on which of my friends look tastiest, myself. ;)

No, really, I've thought to myself a number of times while driving through the Donner Pass -- what inspires people to put a town here?

"People ate each other here. I know, let's build a town!"


I'm sorry but that really made me laugh out loud...

Is that wrong? ;-)
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Is not the end yet.......
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Well, yeah, it is, but those folks are going to avoid the science either way. Doesn't really matter.

The folks who are still picking up on just what's going on, or are at least slightly open to looking at the science, those are the folks I'm more interested in. And for them, presentation does probably matter some, just to cut through the ideology stuff, which gets kind of oddly tribal or something -- often much more about personal relationships than one might think as a rational matter.

People do listen better to ideas from people they generally like and respect.

The other set -- the set you're talking about -- they've got such a deep, personal stake of some kind in their preformed opinion that I do fully predict some of them will be shouting about how it's just another sun spot or some such no matter what level of change we actually witness. But they're not everybody.


I agree 100% with this statement. The segments of the population that are willing to listen would be more willing to listen when the information is given in a non confrontational way. Those that refuse to listen do not really care how the information is provided to them. They still will not listen and only complain it is because of how it was presented to them. As disingenuous as it would be for them to say this, they would still use this as an excuse to avoid the discussion of the science itself. What is more worrisome to me is that the vast majority of the people here have a very good understanding of science in general. ... So the obvious question now is how they could so easily overlook the obvious??? ... Dunno
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Quoting MeteorologistTV:
Someone please post a picture of that mega Low pressure system south of Greenland.Their are some Hurricane force gusts effecting Canada at the moment.
here you go from a poes orbiting satellite

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Another earthquake today that seems to be in the same lats as prior. Hmmmmmm
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Quoting plutorising:

soylent green. sorry don't know wht's come over me here.


I know I'll be keeping an eye on which of my friends look tastiest, myself. ;)

No, really, I've thought to myself a number of times while driving through the Donner Pass -- what inspires people to put a town here?

"People ate each other here. I know, let's build a town!"
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Someone please post a picture of that mega 950mb Low pressure system south of Greenland.Their are some Hurricane force gusts effecting Canada at the moment.
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Stanford Social Innovation review:

Climate Science as Culture War


The public debate around climate change is no longer about science—it’s about values, culture, and ideology.

Link


I read this the other day... good article!
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Quoting plutorising:

soylent green. sorry don't know wht's come over me here.
Ooops, not weather, BUT a Great movie!!!! Made me laugh a lot here!!!!! Kinda sick when you actually think that this could happen:( People... like the cow or pigs... are protien! Oh, I'd kill myself before that!!!!!!!
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Quoting dabirds:
Hope some of that moisture out west can make it into the Missouri basin and fill the resevoirs enough the Corps can release some of it. Otherwise, according to article in Post Dispatch today, barge traffic on Mississippi below StL to Cairo will be shutting down.

Currently the level at StL is -1 ft, expected to drop 4 ft in next two weeks, which will be at minimum level for barge traffic, they need 9 feet. Zero was set at a 14 ft level at Eads Bridge in 1863. Record low was -6.1 ft in Jan. of 1940. NWS expecting will hit that level later unless substantial rain north of StL occurs. It's not forecasted in that time frame.
If not for Issac's rains, would be even worse.


Eads wasn't started until 1867, finished 1874. My family passed under it in 1873 on their way to Florida in a 28 ft. sloop. ( which is why I would know such a superfluous fact) It looked like this in 1873;


I was looking around and found this;

Drought could make Mississippi impassable to barges just as 2012 harvest heads to market
By Jim Suhr And Jim Salter, The Associated Press November 29, 2012

From this article, water wars.. there will be more;
To Sen. Claire McCaskill, a Missouri Democrat, the stakes couldn't be higher.

"There is going to be a dramatic ripple effect to our economy if the barge traffic grinds to halt, which clearly it will if something is not done to avert this crisis," she said.

Her Missouri colleague in the Senate, Republican Roy Blunt, acknowledged "friction" between upper Missouri River interests that control the flow and those downstream on the lower Missouri and Mississippi rivers. He said the corps "needs to manage that balance."

snip

A two-month shutdown — the length of time that some observers fear given current conditions — would have an estimated impact of $7 billion, according to the river industry trade group American Waterways Operators./quote

Add a dry 7 billion to the cost of the drought.







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Stanford Social Innovation review:

Climate Science as Culture War


The public debate around climate change is no longer about science—it’s about values, culture, and ideology.

Link
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We may be looking at the first December tropical cyclone since 2007 soon, guys. 91L is well-organized and already almost meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32262
Quoting Neapolitan:
Why would you assume there's a difference between the denialists who comment and those who don't? They're all cut from the same cloth; they all share the same ideology; they're each one willfully blind to scientific truth--and steadfastly intent on making sure no one else can see it, either.

"Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions."

--Thomas Jefferson


Hardcore denial types, I agree with you, ultimately.

I joke that where I live is the midwest of CA. It's kind of true (I'm concerned about tornadoes a little later, actually, ha.)

And I know a lot of folks who aren't the super invested denial types, but who have gotten a lot of crappy information over time, or who haven't paid much attention overall because they've written the whole thing off as just another political back-and-forth, but who are still open to hearing about it and rethinking. Especially now that everything is looking a little haywire in ways that can't be easily tossed aside anymore.

Those are the people that matter now. Those are the people I try to talk to.

The denialists are largely a waste of breath, though I still do try to give them a number of tries before I decide they're too invested in the political identity involved to actually think past "winning the argument." At some point, heh, yeah. They'll get to tell themselves how right they were while the world falls down on their heads, I guess.

My goal is to sideline them in favor of the people still interested in what's true.
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US coastal cities in danger as sea levels rise faster than expected, study warns

Satellite measurements show flooding from storms like Sandy will put low-lying population centres at risk sooner than projected

Link
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Quoting yoboi:






25% related deaths.....thanks for debunking your own statement....lol


It is the leading cause of fire deaths. Just as cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of overall deaths at around 30% world wide, but certainly is not the sole cause. There is no other single cause that takes more lives.
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Quoting LargoFl:
yes maybe, but what will you be eating?..in an ice age..no plants survive, after that animals vanish..then the glaciers come and scape the earth clean..no buildings nothing left..all scraped clean..yeah we can laugh now..its not happening in real life BUT....be glad we are going into warming..instead of cooling

soylent green. sorry don't know wht's come over me here.
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Ok I'm off school and now 24hours away from the SEC Championship.....



Weather still looks perfect!
It'll be fun, as long as the Bulldogs win.

Next coldfront is lackluster:


Let's Go Georgia!
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Quoting LargoFl:
But what happens during the next ice age? Our current technology can’t halt glaciers from first blanketing continents and then sweeping them clean.

We still don’t know to what degree human activity can affect the climate one way or the other. But if we had to err in one direction shouldn’t we prefer warming to cooling?


Recent estimates have indicated that the energy imbalance from the human-altered greenhouse effect overwhelms the solar radiation drop from the Maunder Minimum within about 2-3 years. My understanding is that it only takes 10-20 years at this pace to completely cancel the known effects of the Milankovich cycles. In summary... we've likely postponed future ice ages indefinitely, at least those caused under the typical circumstances.
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Climate change is a fact, of SO 'Doh!' a nature that one is forced to wonder what could be the cause of the plethora of deniers whom, at every mention of fact, throw their wrists to the skies shrieking, in the manner of soon-to-be-not virgins in some ancient roman pillage scenario.

I guess people just get invested in some sort of identity thing: Mention to an Obamanite that their illustrious leader is busting medical pot operations and authorizing things like the NDAA and they go blank or go into denial. Mention "Building 7" to someone that still believes that America is still what it perhaps never was, and they go into fits, refusing to even consider the data, which is rock solid to the effect that the given explanation is not even remotely true Link. Mention to a BP exec that their operations are unsafe and they have no idea what you are talking about! Mention to a catholic, "You know, Father McClousky certainly does spend a lot of time with the boys.... campouts and everything!" ...and they still say, "Oh, Isn't that nice...!~"

These are all great opportunities to study people stuck in belief systems that absolutely blind them to the facts that are obvious to everyone not so blinkered. How do you get through? It is like dealing with a cult member .... is there some sort of Stockholm Syndrome....? Or... what is it? Whatever it is, the effect is as solid in Science as it is in religion, politics, or economics. Those last three are full of smoke and mirrors.... but Science?
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here's graph I posted this morning without making a comment.I'd say FV has the right idea.


You didn't just post the image to post the image, you posted it to make a hidden claim. I told you what you needed to do to present the information in a scientifically accurate manner so that you could make scientifically accurate conclusions. It was not a particularly hard thing to do, in fact you could do it in excel.

It is going to be hard for actual scientists who do actual analysis of actual science to take you seriously until you actually put some effort into doing it correctly. Perhaps you just do not want to display the data correctly because you do not want to see what it will show?
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Quoting bappit:

Y'all miss the point. You need to convince the people who read this blog but never post on it.

Nasty doesn't cut it.
Why would you assume there's a difference between the denialists who comment and those who don't? They're all cut from the same cloth; they all share the same ideology; they're each one willfully blind to scientific truth--and steadfastly intent on making sure no one else can see it, either.

"Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions."

--Thomas Jefferson
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Quoting LargoFl:
yes maybe, but what will you be eating?..in an ice age..no plants survive, after that animals vanish..then the glaciers come and scape the earth clean..no buildings nothing left..all scraped clean..yeah we can laugh now..its not happening in real life BUT....be glad we are going into warming..instead of cooling
An Ice Age has happened long ago and people survived. Some have that will to survive. Fish is an example of that, as well as seal and whale. I just hope that they are not contaminated! The sea gave us food. And life.
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Quoting LargoFl:
found this note.......If the earth’s climate grows significantly warmer we will probably have to deal with rising sea levels and more severe weather. But these are changes that both human civilization and planetary ecosystems can take in stride. Over the course of decades people will move inland, build more weather-resistant structures, and shift agricultural production to increasingly fertile regions.

But what happens during the next ice age? Our current technology can’t halt glaciers from first blanketing continents and then sweeping them clean.

We still don’t know to what degree human activity can affect the climate one way or the other. But if we had to err in one direction shouldn’t we prefer warming to cooling?


The problem is that we're pretty rangebound, ultimately. Anything that puts us outside of the range for the crops we like to eat and so on is bad.

Warmer is going to mean more energetic weather systems, too, and greater moisture held in the atmosphere some places (less in others, no doubt).

Colder, I dunno. Probably a lot more dry but windy/harsh, a lot of places, and of course freezing to death is no joke.

Neither is good for growing crops. What's even worse for growing crops, though, is _totally unpredictable_ from being destabilized, which is where I suspect we're going to spend a while either way as the atmosphere struggles to "find" a new equilibrium somewhere. When you pull a complex system like this out of whack, until it finds a comfy range again, it's likely to just be a chaotic mess.
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Quoting Pipejazz:


The Demon Haunted World. Sagan's best book. Ever.


Absolutely. It should be required reading for some of the folks here.
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125. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
3:00 AM JST December 1 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (965 hPa) located at 4.4N 142.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 5.7N 139.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Caroline Island
48 HRS: 7.0N 135.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Caroline Island
72 HRS: 8.3N 130.5E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East of Mindanao (Philippines)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583

Quoting plutorising:

sorry?
Just my analogy of your comment on kids. Did not follow your prior links. But I laugh at this because lots of kids are like little tornadoes, nothing stops them and they can be sooooo unpredictable:)
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A new one month outlook is out from the CPC. It's very similar to the new 6-10 day outlook, featuring warmer than average temperatures for most except Florida and Alaska:





The one month precip shows, among other things, continued heavy precip in the Pacific NW:

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This year has me wondering if northern CA is actually going to wind up _wetter_. This is some wet, and satellite of the pacific says we've got a lot more coming. Up around Shasta, they got like 10" already.

We got monsoonal moisture -- not much, but still like 5 times -- over the summer, too. Rare here, it usually sticks to the east side of the Sierra or _maybe_ some indirect hits to socal.

I really needed to go pick up some medications today, but I'm hearing the 8th nasty set of sirens in the last half hour or so, so I'm thinking I'm going to make like the cats and sink into a comfortable cushiony thing someplace. Californians (outside of Eureka) have no idea how to drive in rain.
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found this note.......If the earth’s climate grows significantly warmer we will probably have to deal with rising sea levels and more severe weather. But these are changes that both human civilization and planetary ecosystems can take in stride. Over the course of decades people will move inland, build more weather-resistant structures, and shift agricultural production to increasingly fertile regions.

But what happens during the next ice age? Our current technology can’t halt glaciers from first blanketing continents and then sweeping them clean.

We still don’t know to what degree human activity can affect the climate one way or the other. But if we had to err in one direction shouldn’t we prefer warming to cooling?
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Quoting JustPlantIt:

I will:)
yes maybe, but what will you be eating?..in an ice age..no plants survive, after that animals vanish..then the glaciers come and scape the earth clean..no buildings nothing left..all scraped clean..yeah we can laugh now..its not happening in real life BUT....be glad we are going into warming..instead of cooling
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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