The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:50 PM GMT on November 30, 2012

Share this Blog
45
+

The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.

Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.


Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.

Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!


Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.

Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.

Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.

Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.

Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.

Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.

It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.

No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.

Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.

The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.

Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.

Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.

The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 220 - 170

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

220. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 302338
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF
NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THIS IS THE LAST REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE 2012
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
THE NEXT REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON JUNE 1 2013. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED IF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM
FORMS DURING THE OFF-SEASON.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


bye bye 2012 .. it's been a great ride
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4733
Atmospheric river flowing into California.

Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
218. Skyepony (Mod)
Pakistan~ An unidentified object weighing 179 kilogrammes mysteriously hit the ground with a massive blast on Thursday. According to details, a space shuttle look-alike object descended to the ground, causing a massive blast, creating fear among the locals. Local administration along with law enforcing agencies took the object for investigation. Until the last report, the nature of the object is yet to be determined.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
217. Skyepony (Mod)
Oceansat of low off Greenland.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bopha has really come along way in his/her developement!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting etxwx:


I'm sorry but that really made me laugh out loud...

Is that wrong? ;-)


I guess I'm wrong, too. Or warped... uhoh...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is Canada the only place where the following type of conversation is commonplace?

She: My husband insists we keep our thermostat set at 68 degrees and I am always cold.

Other she: That's too bad. At least ours is around 20 and I am toasty.
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 613
213. Skyepony (Mod)
26W BOPHA


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Random thought for this evening.

Why let reality interfere with your delusions...
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
I feel sorry for Palau
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like the curse of the last two years at stopping at letter T will be broken with these new invest. Hope that it becomes Valerie.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Can we name it yet?


I don't want another named storm and since the world revolves around me we won't and can't name it yet.

But seriously not yet, probably in the next day or so though.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Can we name it yet?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


your point is?


Infrared presentation is far more developed in Bopha than in Michael.

Although comparing the Northern North Atlantic to the Southern West Pacific is a bit like comparing apples and oranges.

Very symmetrical.

Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1502
205. JLPR2
91L, wasn't expecting to see another invest. Maybe the Atl will produce one more.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BOPHA -- looks to me like it's not only unusual but perhaps unprecedented -- ie, this intense a storm this far south. There was one in 1970 that might give it a run. Any others (in western Pac)?

So, what are the conditions that are allowing this usual event?

Phil

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I need to also add something else to my previous post.

1, I estimated the energy needed to heat the ENTIRE atmosphere at the observed lower troposphere heating rate, so that energy value is actually a slight over-estimate, which deflated the ratio of the heat of fusion of water-ice vs the heat capacity of the atmosphere.


2, I also ignored the heat going to the Vaporization of water, which is also another very massive heat sink compared to the heat of warming the "temperature" of the atmosphere.



These two factors combine to mean that the actual forcing of "net heat gained" is far larger than any air temperature graph would represent, so that any apparent "plateau" in atmospheric temperature gain is insignificant compared to the amount of annual net loss of ice and the annual net gain in water vapor, or the annual net gain in Ocean Temperature throughout the entire water column.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1502
202. VR46L
Quoting plutorising:

and didn't i just see a forecast loop showing it aiming straight at you after a few days?


Yep a couple of the models send her crashing right on as a post tropical storm and the Nogaps sends William straight in right after . Any wonder I watch the Atlantic lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2007 actually.

I'm trying multitask and it's not going so well. =P I had 2005 at first but noticed it was 2007 instead, but accidentally put 2008.

Anyways...I corrected my post.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Last week we argued about fog.....
This week its about should we insult in discussions....
Meanwhile smart people like CybrTeddy and I stayed on the sidelines....
And now Cyber finally brings up an interesting topic...
Typhoon Bopha.
I hope all my friends out there stay safe.
They've weathered every storm out there before safely but you get worried every time another one comes.

Go Dawgs!

ROLL TIDE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It has been very quiet for the Florida peninsula these last 7 years. Makes one wonder when our number will be called again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I saw something on Sacramento about levees a couple of years ago, I think they said because of condition and building behind them, you guys were actually #1 at risk city. Hope all goes well, after '93 and'95, know how easy it is for them to go. Good luck!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We may be looking at the first December tropical cyclone since 2008 soon, guys. 91L is well-organized and already almost meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone.



2007 actually.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting schwankmoe:
the thing about your graph is, it claims to present a temperature anomaly, but temperature of what? land? sea? is it the whole world or just one part of it?

as an anomaly, what mean is it in reference to? 100 years? a 5-year running average?

it's easy to mislead with graphs. do you have a link to information that actually describes this graph? or did you just find a graph and figure it made it look like 'it's gotten cooler since 1998' and posted it?




Global.

And it's not "my graph".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

That I don't think Bopha is only 120-130mph.

I don't think its 150 mph either (130kt)
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here's graph I posted this morning without making a comment.

Since none of the AGW crowd commented on it I asked about it later and only ScottL replied.

Quoting ScottLincoln

..The graphic in post 782 is not particularly relevant to the current discussion because is comparing two different physical quantities on incorrect timescales.

The hidden claim made by posting that graph is that monthly temperature anomalies should respond in a linear way to linear changes to climate forcings, and those changes will both occur and be noticeable on monthly timestep data. The second hidden claim is that because the first claim does not appear to be occurring (through visual "eye-balling"), the conclusion should be that CO2 is not changing climate. Climate does not behave this way. At all. If you know anything about climate, you would know this.

To do a proper comparison for relevant discussion, the temperature anomaly data should - at a minimum - be averaged over 5yr or 10yr time periods, and put into a bar graph. The same could be done with the CO2 data but it would not be expected. Also required would be information about the source of the temperature data so that proper caveats could be taken knowing the uncertainties and assumptions of that particular data set.

Replace the graph with a proper one and we'll discuss.



Here's the


How to be a good AGW alarmist post From Funnelvortex this morning.


Quoting FunnelVortex:


How to be a good AGW alarmist.

1. Present your theory.

2. When evidence is presented against your theory, say its been debunked. If the opponent demands to see the study, call bullstuff.

3. Give the sceptics a bad name, like "denialist"

4. Generalize the sceptics as conservitive, creationist, radical republicans who dont care about the Earth.

5. If a person presents hard evidence against AGW, say they are "uncredible" because they dont have a PHD. Or if they do have a PHD, call them an idiot.

6. Push all opposing scientists aside.

7. State your opinion like its fact.

8. If all else fails, preach about how much CO2 the average person produces and ask if we should just "ignore it" or if it will just "go away" (even though it does
).



I'd say FV has the right idea.


You're making a fallacious assumption that you should see the entire excess heat budget as "temperature" in an air temperature graph.

You won't because of the laws of thermodynamics will cause most of the excess heat to "seek" the coldest places on the planet, which is the arctic and antarctic ice and water.

Using round numbers, the amount of heat required to heat the entire Earth's atmosphere by 1C is about:

5*10^21 Joules.

But the atmosphere only heats by one tenth of one degree per decade, or one hundredth of one degree per year, right now, so we can drop two orders of magnitude off that number right now. to get:

Annual atmospheric heat gain per year required to gain one tenth of a degree per decade:

5*10^19 Joules/year

The amount of energy required to melt a cubic kilometer of water-ice at 0C to liquid water at 0C is:

3.35*10^17 Joules/Km^3.

This number is so large due to the Heat of Fusion of water-ice.

Then multiply that by the known amount of net annual ice melt from both continental ice caps and arctic sea ice.

~750km^3 (sea ice) plus ~340km^3 (land ice) equals 1080km^3 total net loss of ice per year, at least.

1080km^3 * 3.35*10^17 Joules/Km^3 = 3.6*10^20 Joules

This means that AT LEAST about seven times more excess heat goes to pay the heat of fusion for net melting of ice each year than what goes to net temperature increase of the atmosphere.

I haven't even calculated net temperature gain of the liquid water, because it's not needed to make my point.

This means that the atmosphere plus hydrosphere is warming far, far faster than the "temperature" implies.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1502
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


ur ponit is?

That I don't think Bopha is only 120-130mph.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
I see NOAA calls the 2012 Hurricane season nothing exceptional, and there were 10 years more busy in the last three decades.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

This is a 115-120mph hurricane, Michael:


Here is Bopha, 130kts probably isn't that bad.


your point is?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


well 130 kts is a little too high...I 'll put it at 120-130 mph as of right now...impressive storm indeed AND so close to the equator

This is a 115-120mph hurricane, Michael:


Here is Bopha, 130kts probably isn't that bad.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, it intensified rapidly today.

Its current intensity has been set at 90 knots, but that is entirely too low judging by satellite intensity estimates.

SAB is at T6.0/115 knots and UW-CIMSS is at T6.6/130 knots.


well 130 kts is a little too high...I 'll put it at 120-130 mph as of right now...impressive storm indeed AND so close to the equator
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
Good afternoon everyone, happy last day of the hurricane season officially. With that invest in the Atlantic there could be Valerie in the next day or two. Also I see Bopha rapidly intensified today.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
the thing about your graph is, it claims to present a temperature anomaly, but temperature of what? land? sea? is it the whole world or just one part of it?

as an anomaly, what mean is it in reference to? 100 years? a 5-year running average?

it's easy to mislead with graphs. do you have a link to information that actually describes this graph? or did you just find a graph and figure it made it look like 'it's gotten cooler since 1998' and posted it?

Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Good grief. The image speaks for itself. I'm not making any hidden claim. I've stated many times that the earth has gotten warmer. I'm just not convinced it's all mankinds fault. Furthermore who voted you the arbitor of all things "scientific" on this blog? The arrogance of you and a few others on this blog is boundless. Look over the graph, comment if you want. The tone of your post is insulting, as usual, when presented with something that doesn't gibe with your point of view. I didn't make the graph. I just presented it in this forum to a deafening silence the 1st time. When I asked for a comment, I get this crap from you. I'm done, for now. I'll prolly get banned for this post. Oh well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ScottLincoln:


I believe I have even read some studies suggesting that Sacramento could be one of the most at-risk cities for flooding in the nation. Most of the time, it is protected by levees, but if the levees were not there, we would have had numerous damaging floods by now.


Yep. We compete with New Orleans for the title.

I wish I were joking, but I'm not. I looked up the flood maps when I lived right downtown, and my jaw dropped -- those levees ever go, where I was would have had ~10 hours before the water was to the roof. The whole central to north end of the urban core would have no warning.

There was some effort to fix some of the levees after Katrina brought awareness to how sucky it could be. But the Army Corps of Engineers wants to rid the whole river basin of the bigger trees, which is, of course, a major habitat issue. So the whole thing is a little stalled out.

As for the trees/habitat -- it's a mess. I think the Corps is wrong in their policy for this area. I see why they'd get rid of them in hurricane wind type regions, but here, they seem to help stabilize the levees. The levees we've already had break are the delta levees that have no deeper root systems on them, they're bare clay and peat soil levees that hold until they very suddenly do not. Plus, the branches and roots in the river -- they argue that this slows the flow, and they're right about that, but the point is that _there's nowhere for it to go faster, since the delta is tidal.

Mini-turbulence from debris and roots and so on helps prevent the cut banks from just washing out along the American River in particular, when it has major flows -- the thing in a wet year is decent rapids even below Folsom Dam, you don't want it _faster_. Rivers are not pipes, especially with our soils and our delta. Speed up the cresting here and you're just going to flood the other end of Sacto and down into the entire delta.

But they have their policy and they refuse to budge on it. If they had their way, I have a feeling they'd just cement in the entire river system like they did to LA.

Anyway, point being -- it's all a huge clusterbleep of back and forth, and the levees are still in bad shape. We really should have stopped building in the flood plain, but we didn't, so now it's got the older stuff (that's at least mostly highwater homes, people weren't stupid) and 8 bazillion new McMansions and strip malls with no protection if something gives.

We'd be pulling people off of tons of faux-spanish-tile rooftops.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JustPlantIt:

Well... I'm more the rook when it comes to study, and I'm sure everyone here would love to see it! Just the proof and logistics to back it up... then you become a leader and not a rookie!!!! Hope you can show me and more importantly... the world.) The chickens are happy!


LOL! Roger, will do. Over and out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


this storm is crazy

Yeah, it intensified rapidly today.

Its current intensity has been set at 90 knots, but that is entirely too low judging by satellite intensity estimates.

SAB is at T6.0/115 knots and UW-CIMSS is at T6.6/130 knots.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


We could slow it by introducing more CO2 into the atmosphere and destroy some of the carbon sinks that would remove some of the CO2 from the atmosphere. My understanding is that this is an experiment we are doing on a global scale now. So far, it looks very promising in its ability to lessen the impacts of any impending ice age. We are continuing this experiment to see if we could actually reverse any probability of another impending ice age. So far this experiment looks equally well. ... I'll get back to you later on this.
Well... I'm more the rook when it comes to study, and I'm sure everyone here would love to see it! Just the proof and logistics to back it up... then you become a leader and not a rookie!!!! Hope you can show me and more importantly... the world.) The chickens are happy!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bopha is close to being annular.



this storm is crazy
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
Bopha is close to being annular.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Interesting (and typical) that some will comment on a linked article...
which they OBVIOUSLY didn't read....

...from article linked in 159

An atmospheric river is a narrow conveyor belt of vapor about a mile high that extends thousands of miles from out at sea and can carry as much water as 15 Mississippi Rivers. It strikes as a series of storms that arrive for days or weeks on end. Each storm can dump inches of rain or feet of snow. For more details, see this feature story that Scientific American has just published, written by two experts on these storms.

Scientists discovered atmospheric rivers in 1998 and have only recently characterized them fully enough to allow forecasters to warn of their arrival. They can strike the west coasts of most continents, but California seems to be a prime target. As many as nine small atmospheric rivers reach the state each year, each lasting two to three days, including the famous “pineapple express” storms that come straight from the Hawaii region of the Pacific Ocean. Ironically, although the storms are dangerous, they are also vital; they supply 30 to 50 percent of California’s rain and snow—in the span of about 10 days a year.

Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
Quoting ScottLincoln:


You didn't just post the image to post the image, you posted it to make a hidden claim. I told you what you needed to do to present the information in a scientifically accurate manner so that you could make scientifically accurate conclusions. It was not a particularly hard thing to do, in fact you could do it in excel.

It is going to be hard for actual scientists who do actual analysis of actual science to take you seriously until you actually put some effort into doing it correctly. Perhaps you just do not want to display the data correctly because you do not want to see what it will show?



Good grief. The image speaks for itself. I'm not making any hidden claim. I've stated many times that the earth has gotten warmer. I'm just not convinced it's all mankinds fault. Furthermore, who voted you the arbitor of all things "scientific" on this blog? The arrogance of you and a few others on this blog is boundless. Look over the graph, comment if you want. The tone of your post is insulting, as usual. When presented with something that doesn't gibe with your point of view, you attack, vilify and belittle. I didn't make the graph. I just presented it in this forum to a deafening silence the 1st time. When I asked for a comment, I get this crap from you. I'm done, for now. I'll prolly get banned for this post. Oh well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormchaser19:
Is not the end yet.......


the last TWO of 2012 to be issued in an hour or two...however...

we have 91L
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
Much better...


Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


The flooding then in Sacramento then is why they rebuilt it higher -- they raised the whole street level.

It's still a flood prone city -- two of three major river systems come right together at downtown. The whole north end of it is protected by some crappy levees, too, and a whole lot of that is newer development that hasn't done jack for floods.

The Sacramento river is already going to start filling some of the bypasses upstream from us, knock on lots of wood that the levees here hold up if those fill.


I believe I have even read some studies suggesting that Sacramento could be one of the most at-risk cities for flooding in the nation. Most of the time, it is protected by levees, but if the levees were not there, we would have had numerous damaging floods by now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm surprised more aren't talking about the storm south of greenland
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
if people read this blog, whether they post or not, they've been referred to the actual science many times by Dr M.

as i said, the science has been presented numerous times. dr masters has done so many, many times. if you're not convinced at this point 'being nice' isn't going to magically make it happen.

Quoting bappit:

Y'all miss the point. You need to convince the people who read this blog but never post on it.

Nasty doesn't cut it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JustPlantIt:

Really? Are you an inventor? What would you do.... annnd could you stop it? Enthusiasm is for movies. This is not a silly venue and needs to be taken seriously. Sorry, off to put my chickens to bed and cook a real dinner... not one from a box either!


We could slow it by introducing more CO2 into the atmosphere and destroy some of the carbon sinks that would remove some of the CO2 from the atmosphere. My understanding is that this is an experiment we are doing on a global scale now. So far, it looks very promising in its ability to lessen the impacts of any impending ice age. We are continuing this experiment to see if we could actually reverse any probability of another impending ice age. So far this experiment looks equally well. ... I'll get back to you later on this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nymore:
I don't know how mysterious it is, I have heard it called the Pineapple Express since I can remember and that is quite awhile


Yep, even the crazy cat lady across the street (I say this with affection, but _wow_, lady) referred to it that way while she studiously raked all of the sycamore leaves into a series of neat piles _square in the rain gutter_ the other day.

"Hear it's gonna be a Pineapple Express. Better get ready!"

*rake rake rake into the gutter*

I had to dig a lot of it out this morning in the downpour while she was still asleep. My yard was fine, but I felt bad for the folks a few doors down who were about to have a flooded truck engine.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:



let's just blame ever event on climate change...that's what is going on now.....


No, climate change is not the reason why I did not win the PowerBall the other night. .............Or, is it???? Hmmmmmmmmmm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 220 - 170

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.