The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:50 PM GMT on November 30, 2012

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The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.

Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.


Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.

Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!


Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.

Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.

Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.

Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.

Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.

Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.

It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.

No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.

Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.

The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.

Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.

Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.

The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

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1120. SuzK
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
You must have been a Beach Boys fan


Not especially, more of a Beatles girl :)
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1119. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting AussieStorm:


It only strengthened cause it gained longitude.
All the ingredients was there except longitude.


It think you mean latitude. Going farther north enabled it to spin faster. It's movement through longitude has actually been a little detrimental taking Bopha into cooler waters.
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1118. pcola57
Quoting AussieStorm:
Bopha zoomed in loop.


Very good loop Aussie..
I pray for common sense and safety for those affected by Bopha..today is a day of seriousness and a life changing event for many in the Philippines..
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Aussie, post # 1109, I think you meant , latitude.
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Quoting pcola57:
My WU weather..

Webcam from my area..


1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida






91L doesn't look like much this am..


Where is 91L?
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Island of Mindanao in the Philippines, where typhoon Bopha is expected to make landfall and traverse through the northern part of the Island making landfall as a possible CAT 5.

The Island of Mindanao is populated at 25,375,527 according to Wikipedia 2010 estimate.. Popuation density map of the individual states within the Philippines.


Caraga(noted in yellow) which is it's most north and northeastern state on the Island of Mindanao is composed of about 2.5 million people.



Philippines Land Use Map




Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1456
Quoting SuzK:


Ahhh you just meant the early 60's, you ratfink lol
You must have been a Beach Boys fan
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1111. pcola57
My WU weather..

Webcam from my area..


1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida






91L doesn't look like much this am..


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Bopha zoomed in loop.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
When Bopah was a 50mph storm people were wondering why didn't it "take off" becuase of the favorable environment that had surronded the storm.I personally didn't want it to as people were in the path.Of course you didn't probably notice this because you were to busy aruguing probably with Nea about climate change...>.>


It only strengthened cause it gained longitude.
All the ingredients was there except longitude.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

I didn't witness this type of behavior whatsoever.
Didn't someone else have the same guitar player icon?
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Exactly right..........Your memory is uncanny Aussie

It was just a guess.
Quoting RTSplayer:


I don't know why it hasn't been upgraded.

It looks like something out of 2005 or 2007 from the Atlantic.

See if I can find something zoomed in from another site.


You mean zoomed in like this?

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Quoting TomballTXPride:

I didn't witness this type of behavior whatsoever.
When Bopah was a 50mph storm people were wondering why didn't it "take off" becuase of the favorable environment that had surronded the storm.I personally didn't want it to as people were in the path.Of course you didn't probably notice this because you were to busy aruguing probably with Nea about climate change...>.>
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Ok, Colorado State is calling it a 140kts hurricane, as of 12UTC, which was an hour ago. So that's 161mph sustained, which NHC would advise the public as 160mph. Gusts are probably near 200mph.



Donut.

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1104. SuzK
Quoting Slamguitar:


No, not historical facts!! Just kidding, I wanted to throw in Cuba even though I'm well versed in the history. Made more sense than saying the commie storm formed near the USSR. Props for noticing. You get a red star!!


Ahhh you just meant the early 60's, you ratfink lol
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Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting AussieStorm:


21,582,540 as of 2007 census. maybe 22,500,000 now.
Exactly right..........Your memory is uncanny Aussie
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50-minute super cell wreaks havoc on Tamworth

Residents are still mopping up after Monday's wild storm that ripped through Tamworth, bringing down power lines and cutting off electricity to thousands of homes.

The "super cell" dumped hailstones bigger than golf balls across parts of the CBD.

Around 3,500 customers lost power, and wind gusts up to 100km/h were measured at Tamworth Airport.

Meteorologist with weatherzone.com.au, Ben McBurney, says it was a rare, but damaging, weather event.

"So, what we had was called a super cell storm, which is the strongest storm you can get," he said.

"In the south-west of Tamworth there were reports of cricket ball-sized hail and very heavy rainfall," he said.

Mr McBurney says Tamworth Airport and south-western suburbs copped the worst of the storm.

"The east side of town didn't get as much, but the highest wind gusts were very, very strong; strong enough, in fact, to lift roofs off houses, and blow down power lines and trees."

The Nationals' member for Tamworth, Kevin Anderson, says he was called by the SES Deputy Commissioner of Operations, Steve Pearce, after the storm.

Hundreds of emergency calls were processed in and around the Tamworth area.

Kevin Anderson says the damage bill is expected to be significant judging from the calls already logged with the State Emergency Service.

"The Deputy Commissioner, Steve Pearce, informed me that there were about 130 calls in the space of an hour from those residents seeking assistance and that included damage to roofa, damage to cars as well as broken windows from the hail," he said.

Regional General Manager with Essential Energy, Matt Patterson, says thousands of customers lost power.

"We had 3,500 out at the height of the storms and we've been able to restore supply to some customers," he said.

"Some power lines went down in the main part of the town of Tamworth and also poles went down in some of the outlying areas and we sent out a large number of crews to restore supply and patrol lines, too."

In the early evening, a further 1,100 customers lost power in the Quirindi area.


- ABC

ABC 2012













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Quoting AztecCe:
This thing looks horrible

Link


I don't know why it hasn't been upgraded.

It looks like something out of 2005 or 2007 from the Atlantic.

See if I can find something zoomed in from another site.

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Good morning.I feel very bad for the people in the Phillipines.I have two friends that I work with who have family there and they have been checking in on them to see if their all right.

Before my last departure from the blog I saw people wishing for the Typhoon to intensify into the system that it is now saying "It has all the ingrediants?"."So why won't it intensify?"

Well I hope you all are happy..... be careful what you wish for..It may not be what you always wanted...
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1097. AztecCe
This thing looks horrible

Link
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Pilbra Thunderstorm Tonight.






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Good sticky warm morning everyone. Not much cool on the horizon for us.

WOULD HAVE TO SAY THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF TEMPERATURES COMING IN AT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
THE NORM. DID TIE A RECORD HIGH AT ARA SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY
RECORDS TODAY HOWEVER WITH THE RECORD AT ALL SITES IN THE MID
80S. NOT USED TO SWATTING MOSQUITOES IN DECEMBER. NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED
THURSDAY.

HAVE INCLUDED A FEW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
THANKS TO A DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR BOTH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW AGAIN STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING.
ECMWF SUGGESTING A RATHER STRONG FROPA SUNDAY BUT THE GFS NOT
BITING. AT THIS TIME MAINTAINED THE AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AWAITING SOME CONTINUITY BETWEEN MODELS.

Lol. They must be new. :)
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Bopha is apparently within about 3mph of it's theoretical maximum wind speed, and may actually be exceeding theory.

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1093. nymore
Large parts of Alaska getting crushed with very cold weather.

UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOK...TANACROSS...EAGLE...TETLIN... NORTHWAY...ALCAN...CHICKEN...BOUNDARY 358 AM AKST MON DEC 3 2012 .TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. HIGHS 30 TO 40 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES. LOWS 35 TO 45 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES. HIGHS 25 TO 35 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES. LOWS 35 BELOW TO 45 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES. HIGHS 25 TO 35 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 35 BELOW. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 30 BELOW. .THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40 BELOW. HIGHS AROUND 30 BELOW. .SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 35 BELOW. LOWS AROUND 40 BELOW. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 20 BELOW.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


21,582,540 as of 2007 census. maybe 22,500,000 now.


Oh boy. It was much better if it had tracked north from there but it seems late now to not turn away from that area.
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Quoting nymore:
What will happen to agriculture, building and infrastructure construction, trucking firms.

Just to name a few


These folks will be the leaders in the improvement of efficiency with fossil fuels as they will be greatly affected. They will have to raise prices for their products/services and those that become more efficient will have a competitive advantage. The increase in price will change the purchasing practices of the public and some products will suffer while others will benefit.

There will be a large shift in the behavior of the citizenry. Is this bad? Nope, when considering the alternative, it is very, very good.


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So far it's done about what I said last night before I went to bed.

I said it would reach peak intensity in 12 to 18, based on the intuition that the eye would be rebuilt by now, and some other observations I've made over the years.

I'd say it holds about this intensity, give or take 5 or 10kts, for another 12 hours.


TCHP is useless for systems that are moving well, particularly when they are relatively small, like this one. This storm is actually smaller than Andrew, but currently about the same pressure as Andrew's Florida landfall, but 5 to 10mph stronger winds than Andrew's Florida landfall.

Only SST matters, because up-welling isn't an issue, so 29C and 30C can easily support cat 5, even though the TCHP is supposedly low. Actually, I doubt the accuracy of those maps anyway, but that's for another thread.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Aussie,do you know the population of Mindanao?


21,582,540 as of 2007 census. maybe 22,500,000 now.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Well this has disaster written all over it...



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 DEC 2012 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 7:18:55 N Lon : 129:05:22 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 920.9mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -14.6C Cloud Region Temp : -81.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 98km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.4 degrees


03/0830 UTC 7.2N 129.6E T7.0/7.0 BOPHA -- West Pacific



Very impressive storm. Definitely cat 5.






Quoting FlyingScotsman:


Bopha's eye has shrunk so much over the past few hours, that it seems like it must be about to begin another eyewall replacement cycle. That means top winds may come down (from 180 mph, according to recent ADT estimates!), but wind field will probably expand a good deal from those really small numbers just posted.


It's a small system with a small eye. So what?

It's about the size of Andrew or Charlie. The eye being small is normal.

Just remember, Wilma had a 2 mile wide eye at peak wind intensity.

Maybe the eye falls apart, maybe it doesn't, either way the people there should treat it the same and take every step possible to save their own lives.
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Aussie,do you know the population of Mindanao?
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Quoting JustSouthofEquator:


While the cloud shield is indeed large, the wind radii is small
This is very common with near equatorial system. To conserve momentum due to lack of coriolis force, the system must remain small and compact.

The good news is that wind damage will be very localized, the REALLY BAD news is precipitation. Flooding will be the main concern.


Flooding is always a concern.

Here is a conspiracy for everyone. The radar that was on Mindanao Island but it went down for maintenance a few days ago, came back online today but it's now no longer available. Pablo was expected to pass very close to this doppler radar station.
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1082. nymore
Quoting percylives:


How about a carbon tax (or fee if you want to use Hansen's word) combined with a carbon dividend?

The tax/fee is collected from the fossil fuel company when it comes out of the ground. The tax/fee is based on the amount of fossilized CO2 that is produced by burning the carbon produced. About $.20/pound of CO2 is a good level after a 3 year phase-in. That would add about $4.00 to the price of a gallon of most liquid fossil fuels in addition to the amount of carbon used in refining and transportation. There would be a 6 month preparation period from the date the law was signed into law and the first collections were made and the rate would be gradually increased for the next 3 years.

The dividend would take all (less 5% for admin costs) of this tax/fee money and distribute it equally in a monthly or quarterly payment to registered participants who must be citizens of the US. Registrants must have a social security card, be permanent residents of the US, and be 18 or over. The Alaskan oil dividend does approximately this every year in that state.

What would be the result of this? People would immediately use less fossil fuels in every way possible to avoid paying the tax/fee. Those that managed to do a good job in reducing their use would actually make money from the combination. Big spenders that jet all over the planet would end up paying those that stayed at home and used less. Fossil fuels would be replaced by renewable and other sources of energy much more rapidly. A house powered by solar panels or wind wouldn't pay the tax coal or gas generated power would require. A society organized along this line would see a massive drop in fossil fuel use in a controlled fashion.
What will happen to agriculture, building and infrastructure construction, trucking firms.

Just to name a few
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Quoting JustSouthofEquator:


While the cloud shield is indeed large, the wind radii is small

278
wtpn31 pgtw 030900
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Typhoon 26w (Bopha) warning nr 031
01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only
---
warning position:
030600z --- near 6.9n 130.4e
movement past six hours - 280 degrees at 12 kts
position accurate to within 020 nm
position based on eye fixed by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 115 kt, gusts 140 kt
wind radii valid over open water only

radius of 064 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
025 nm southeast quadrant
025 nm southwest quadrant
030 nm northwest quadrant


radius of 050 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
045 nm southeast quadrant
045 nm southwest quadrant
050 nm northwest quadrant

radius of 034 kt winds - 105 nm northeast quadrant
095 nm southeast quadrant
095 nm southwest quadrant
100 nm northwest quadrant
repeat posit: 6.9n 130.4e

This is very common with near equatorial system. To conserve momentum due to lack of coriolis force, the system must remain small and compact.

The good news is that wind damage will be very localized, the REALLY BAD news is precipitation. Flooding will be the main concern.


Bopha's eye has shrunk so much over the past few hours, that it seems like it must be about to begin another eyewall replacement cycle. That means top winds may come down (from 180 mph, according to recent ADT estimates!), but wind field will probably expand a good deal from those really small numbers just posted.
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1080. yqt1001
Both SAB and JTWC are at 7.0 so pending that there isn't another EWRC before the next update, it should be a category 5 system soon.



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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I am not a fan of the carbon tax. I am much less of a fan of inaction when it comes to mitigation of the CO2 that OUR activities contribute to the warming trend of our climate. I am VERY open to hearing alternatives.


How about a carbon tax (or fee if you want to use Hansen's word) combined with a carbon dividend?

The tax/fee is collected from the fossil fuel company when it comes out of the ground. The tax/fee is based on the amount of fossilized CO2 that is produced by burning the carbon produced. About $.20/pound of CO2 is a good level after a 3 year phase-in. That would add about $4.00 to the price of a gallon of most liquid fossil fuels in addition to the amount of carbon used in refining and transportation. There would be a 6 month preparation period from the date the law was signed into law and the first collections were made and the rate would be gradually increased for the next 3 years.

The dividend would take all (less 5% for admin costs) of this tax/fee money and distribute it equally in a monthly or quarterly payment to registered participants who must be citizens of the US. Registrants must have a social security card, be permanent residents of the US, and be 18 or over. The Alaskan oil dividend does approximately this every year in that state.

What would be the result of this? People would immediately use less fossil fuels in every way possible to avoid paying the tax/fee. Those that managed to do a good job in reducing their use would actually make money from the combination. Big spenders that jet all over the planet would end up paying those that stayed at home and used less. Fossil fuels would be replaced by renewable and other sources of energy much more rapidly. A house powered by solar panels or wind wouldn't pay the tax coal or gas generated power would require. A society organized along this line would see a massive drop in fossil fuel use in a controlled fashion.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Pablo is classified as a large system. 775km in diameter.



While the cloud shield is indeed large, the wind radii is small

278
wtpn31 pgtw 030900
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Typhoon 26w (Bopha) warning nr 031
01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only
---
warning position:
030600z --- near 6.9n 130.4e
movement past six hours - 280 degrees at 12 kts
position accurate to within 020 nm
position based on eye fixed by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 115 kt, gusts 140 kt
wind radii valid over open water only

radius of 064 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
025 nm southeast quadrant
025 nm southwest quadrant
030 nm northwest quadrant


radius of 050 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
045 nm southeast quadrant
045 nm southwest quadrant
050 nm northwest quadrant

radius of 034 kt winds - 105 nm northeast quadrant
095 nm southeast quadrant
095 nm southwest quadrant
100 nm northwest quadrant
repeat posit: 6.9n 130.4e

This is very common with near equatorial system. To conserve momentum due to lack of coriolis force, the system must remain small and compact.

The good news is that wind damage will be very localized, the REALLY BAD news is precipitation. Flooding will be the main concern.
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Quoting yonzabam:
So, is Bopha/Pablo a large system,or not? I read a few days ago that it was small, but it doesn't look so small to me. Maybe it's put on some weight.

Pablo is classified as a large system. 775km in diameter.

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1076. barbamz
Good morning from snowy Germany and, well, all the best to the poor Philippines with "Pablo". When I was a child, I once had a penfriend in Mindanao/Davao City (cough, about 40 years ago) ...

Evacuations start as 'Pablo' moves closer to Mindanao
(philstar.com) | Updated December 3, 2012 - 11:13am

MANILA, Philippines - Preemptive evacuations have been ordered in areas in Mindanao that are expected to be hit by typhoon "Pablo" (international name Bopha), which was forecast to make landfall on Tuesday morning over Surigao del Sur.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) placed all its units in Mindanao and other parts of the country, particularly in Palawan and Visayas provinces, on red alert to prepare for the typhoon, which had been categorized by US meteorologists as a super typhoon.

Reports said that additional policemen have been dispatched to Surigao provinces to convince residents in high-risk areas to evacuate. Reports said that several residents continue to refuse to leave their homes despite the anticipated devastation that may be brought by the typhoon.

Preparations for the typhoon was heavier in Caraga, where several provinces are included in the path of the typhoon when it starts crossing land.

Director Blanchie Gobenciong, Office of Civil Defense (OCD) director in Caraga, said that alongside the preemptive evacuation are the pre-positioning of rescue teams and equipment in critical areas in the region.

“Aside from Hinatuan town, residents along coastal municipalities in the provinces of Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Siargo in Dinagat, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur and Davao Oriental, have already evacuated,” Gobenciong said.

Preemptive evacuations were also conducted along coastal municipalities of Samar and Leyte, which are also included in the list of provinces that are in Pablo’s path.

“All these areas where preemptive evacuations were conducted are all facing the Pacific Ocean,” Gobenciong said.

Gobenciong said that as part of their ongoing preparation is the assumption that wide areas in Caraga would be without electricity as the typhoon is expected to topple electricity posts and cut off power lines during its onslaught.

Source and more
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 51 Comments: 5627
Everyone have a great Monday, and Aussie have a great Tuesday!
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Quoting yonzabam:
So, is Bopha/Pablo a large system,or not? I read a few days ago that it was small, but it doesn't look so small to me. Maybe it's put on some weight.



Haven't we all?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
1073. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!!..warm and no rain this week again
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36855
So, is Bopha/Pablo a large system,or not? I read a few days ago that it was small, but it doesn't look so small to me. Maybe it's put on some weight.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2893
Quoting FlyingScotsman:


You need to check your maps again. That map shows Mike nicking the NE tip of Mindanao and then heading into the Leyte Gulf and through the Visayas. The forecast map of Bopha you posted is more than a day old, and the current forecast (and it's only 12 hours from landfall now, so that's pretty definite), has it ploughing into central Mindanao.

Thankfully, the coastline there is relatively sparsely populated, but a little ways inland that's not the case.

Thanks, and I did say similar, not exact.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


You need to check your research, The last typhoon of Bopha/Pablo strength was Typhoon Mike of 1990. Mike was a Cat 4 Typhoon when it hit the same area as Bopha is forecast to hit.

Also, TS Washi was not moving very quickly. in fact the flash flooding was caused by 10hrs of heavy rain.

How similar is the track of TY Mike.


and forecast track of TY Bopha.


You need to check your maps again. That map shows Mike nicking the NE tip of Mindanao and then heading into the Leyte Gulf and through the Visayas. The forecast map of Bopha you posted is more than a day old, and the current forecast (and it's only 12 hours from landfall now, so that's pretty definite), has it ploughing into central Mindanao.

Thankfully, the coastline there is relatively sparsely populated, but a little ways inland that's not the case.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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