The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close
The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.
Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.
Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.
Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.
Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.
Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!
Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.
Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.
Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.
Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.
Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.
Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.
It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.
No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.
Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.
The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.
Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.
Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.
The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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RIP 2012 .. it's been great. 19-10-1
not quite yet
lolololol
i know my deal..
well... 2013 is the next one...
i hope things are more exciting...
I thought the season was exciting enough. The US finally saw its share of storms (although I hate that Sandy was so devastating), which is something we haven't seen in years. Plus I got a hurricane. ;)
Only thing that pissed me off was the lack of major hurricane activity. A half a day of major hurricane activity makes me sad.
Sandy was enough excitement for me for several years, even without Isaac.
There's also a slim chance they upgrade Beryl to a hurricane, which would make it 19-11-2 or 19-11-3.
I think it's time to let it go...
19-10-1 that is so weird.
^^Admitting he's a sadist that craves intense hurricanes! Lmao
How do you know I'm not a psychotic serial killer? How do you know I don't have corpses rotting underneath my house like John Gacy did? Questions, questions. ;)
Sorry for the late response.
But in a word, "no" .
Evening, pottery. How are you?
My early numbers are 15/8/3.
Palau typhoon aftermath: Power out, waves inundate low-lying areas
President says Koror escapes major damage but eastern coastal areas flooded
8:04 AM, Dec. 3, 2012
Palau President Johnson Toribiong said this morning the island nation's capital, Koror, escaped major damage from Typhoon Bopha, but he's waiting for an assessment of eastern atolls and islands where waves went inland.
An initial assessment in Koror shows the damage was not extensive, except for downed trees and power disruption since yesterday afternoon, Toribiong said by phone from Koror.
"We've been blessed," Toribiong said, that Koror was spared from major damage.
Koror's TV and radio services are down and flights have been suspended, the president said. Making phone calls to Palau has been challenging as well.
Toribiong said initial reports showed seawater went inland in areas including Kayangel, Angaur and Babeldaob, where residents evacuated to higher ground.
The president said there has been no report of any casualty.
David Tevid, with the Palau community on Guam, said he heard some homes may have been swept, but that information could not be independently verified by the Pacific Daily News.
Babeldaob is the largest island in Palau with about 6,000 people.
Kayangel is the northernmost state of Palau, with a population of less than 200. Angaur, also with a population of less than 200, was inundated with waves that were whipped inland as well, the president said.
He said an assessment of the damage would begin today as Palau is officially declared out of the damaging typhoon’s reach.
Bopha is moving west at 17 mph but is expected to resume a west-northwest motion, according to the National Weather Service.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 130 mph. The Weather Service said Bopha is expected to continue to weaken through this evening. As it moves to the Philippines, typhoon-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center of the storm and tropical-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the storm's center.
Doing OK Kori.
Been raining quite a bit (2" in 48 hrs) which was welcomed.
Temps have finally come down to the low-mid 80's too.
A relief !
I imagine it's pretty humid over there.
Last couple of days have been in the 90's all day/night.
Didnt feel too bad unless you were doing physical stuff.
Ahem...
000
ABNT20 KNHC 030101
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN AZORES IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE
PROCESS OF ACQUIRING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND DEVELOPMENT INTO
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Are you agreeing with me? I'm confused
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 DEC 2012 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 6:44:33 N Lon : 131:19:20 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 947.7mb/119.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.9 6.7
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km
Center Temp : -27.3C Cloud Region Temp : -77.9C
Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 81km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 12.9 degrees
just one out of 19???
Yeah.
well...you said it seems that 91L doesn't have a chance.
Kori said that it does not matter if it seems to you or not...it's NOT happening.
You should have checked NHC site before posting that because people specially Kori will hunt you down
since warnings weren't issued for the NYC are during Sandy...here is the closest approach to the weight of a hurricane warning for the public... although they don't really exist
Hurricane Wind warning
High waves warning
Major flooding warning
Water rise flooding warning ...something like that
high wind warnings, flood warning etc didn't have the effect expected on the population
clearing out again...could go up in winds. Not so much relief for the Philippines from a weakening storm anymore
How many of us come to this blog... like how many people are here?
I don't think there is enough evidence to prove that Beryl was a hurricane. Sandy will be upgraded to a major in the post-season analysis and Gordon has a chance to become a major. Also I do believe Kirk will not be upgraded to a major, yes I know you didn't mention it but I felt like including it.
Yeah 91L is done and so is the season most likely.
120 kt... then 140 mph. starting to go up again
I think it would be more 'understandable' to keep the current SS scale, but to add a 1-5 scale of "Destructive Potential" or something like that..
So, Sandy would at landfall have been a Cat 2, with a DP of 5.
Well, that can be interpreted a few ways.
Sometimes there seems to be too many (Sandy), but then winter hits and it gets boring around here, so I don't know whether I like the traffic or not.
Or if you're asking how many people are here literally, then "present".
Keep Safe.
Night Pott ..you have a safe one too!
The eye is becoming more visible on satellite and microwave imagery, and the eyewall is looking better on microwave.
I'm here and I'll be here all winter tracking winter storms and making forecasts for my local area. I'll even being impacted by winter storms from time to time.
I'm tempted to say next year will feature 19 named storms.
Some damage next door to our hotel #typhoon #Bopha
Peleliu got badly hit by storm surge down there but no more details than that.
My early numbers point to 16-8-5. 2008 numbers ;)
Fortunately, the southern islands are lightly populated. Palau really got lucky. Bohpa went west instead of WNW.
Will the 2013 Hurricane season be an El Nino or a La Nina or a Neutral season?
Looks like Bopha has taken a WSW turn in the last few frames.
TXPQ27 KNES 022123
TCSWNP
A. 26W (BOPHA)
B. 02/2030Z
C. 6.6N
D. 132.3E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T6.0/6.5/W1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/TMI/AMSU
H. REMARKS...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY (NOTED BELOW) SHOWS A SINGLE
EYEWALL FEATURE INDICATING THAT ANY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE NOTED
IN PREVIOUS BULLETIN HAS NEARED COMPLETION. EYE IS LARGER NOW THAN 24
HOURS PREVIOUS AND REMAINS CLOUD FILLED MTSAT IR IMAGERY. W EYE WITH W
SURROUNDING TEMP AND CMG RING TEMPERATURE GIVES DT=5.0 (INCLUDES -1.0
EYE ADJUSTMENT). THIS MATCHES DT USING W EMBEDDED CENTER. MET=6.5 BASED
ON 24 HOUR WEAKENING TREND. PT=6.0. FT IS BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
02/1436Z 6.7N 134.0E TMI
02/1631Z 6.6N 133.2E AMSU
...RUMINSKI
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