The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:50 PM GMT on November 30, 2012

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The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.

Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.


Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.

Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!


Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.

Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.

Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.

Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.

Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.

Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.

It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.

No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.

Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.

The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.

Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.

Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.

The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

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319. Skyepony (Mod)
Nice to see WINDSAT working again..missed 91L this evening. SO did OSCAT though you can see the surface High to the NE of 91L.

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Quoting Doppler22:
Hey, we had 2 storms in May why not one in December? :p
or two in December as the models are developing William two.4 out season storms will be amazing.
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317. Skyepony (Mod)
Recent ASCAT, 91L lower right..

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RE: PensacolaDoug post 312 No "pineapple express" here. It's origins are at least 500 miles north of the Islands.

Good point, but the result is similar - rain day and night, snow level fluxuating between 5500 ft. (rarely) and over 10,000 ft. (mostly). TX, OK, KS, and NE, eat your heart out.
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91L
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5996
Quoting oldnewmex:
That atmospheric river, aka the Pineapple Express, is at it again here in California. They are handing out sandbags at the town yard - kind of unusual when your town sits at 6000 ft. elevation. There is a lull of sorts right now in the rain, with much more expected tomorrow. Even Reno and Sparks, downstream on the Truckee River, are in flood warning and issuing sandbags, mostly for businesses built on the floodplain. Those rivers and oceans are a mixed blessing, aren't they?


Saw that the Truckee was looking to crest pretty high by the end of this. Good luck up there. Sacto River is expected to probably hit some flood stages up farther in the valley, too, fingers crossed down here that all of the bypasses will be enough to keep it out of the towns along the way.
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Typhoon Bopha looks impressive with a well-organized structure, despite the fact that it is positioned at a low latitude. Expect it to threaten Palau and the Philippines in the coming days.

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Quoting oldnewmex:
That atmospheric river, aka the Pineapple Express, is at it again here in California. They are handing out sandbags at the town yard - kind of unusual when your town sits at 6000 ft. elevation. There is a lull of sorts right now in the rain, with much more expected tomorrow. Even Reno and Sparks, downstream on the Truckee River, are in flood warning and issuing sandbags, mostly for businesses built on the floodplain. Those rivers and oceans are a mixed blessing, aren't they?


No "pineapple express" here. It's origins are at least 500 miles north of the Islands.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


The low itself, yeah, probably so. Not what I meant, sorry if it was unclear.

Watch the wv loops, you can see the moisture getting pulled off of that SE heavy chunk. Been at it for most of the day, and it's moistening up stuff to the NE pretty quick.


That's okay. I didn't state it in the first place.
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That atmospheric river, aka the Pineapple Express, is at it again here in California. They are handing out sandbags at the town yard - kind of unusual when your town sits at 6000 ft. elevation. There is a lull of sorts right now in the rain, with much more expected tomorrow. Even Reno and Sparks, downstream on the Truckee River, are in flood warning and issuing sandbags, mostly for businesses built on the floodplain. Those rivers and oceans are a mixed blessing, aren't they?
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Quoting Civicane49:


That low pressure system northwest of Hawaii is expected to bring wet weather to Hawaii beginning early next week.


The low itself, yeah, probably so. Not what I meant, sorry if it was unclear.

Watch the wv loops, you can see the moisture getting pulled off of that SE heavy chunk. Been at it for most of the day, and it's moistening up stuff to the NE pretty quick.
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91L:



Bopha:

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306. wxmod
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/11/29/mad-scient ists-and-geo-engineering/

"Mad Scientists and Geo-Engineering
by BINOY KAMPMARK

We are doomed as a parasitic, rapacious species, and with that air of certain demise, anything is possible. That, at least, seems to be behind the desperate push for a human effort to reverse, alter and adjust the environment in order to halt the previous effects of alteration and adjustment that have been visited upon the globe. One thing is bound to happen: a right royal cock-up of stupendous proportions. If something is broken, it’s bound to get even more so when it comes to “environmental” solutions.

Let us, for a moment, assume the optimist’s position on what has come to be called geo-engineering”, the effort to lessen the impact of climate change by altering the earth’s climate. This is donning the cap of reflection, an eccentric’s demeanour in attempting to right the crimes committed against the environment. Research as to whether such dramatic measures of environmental reversal are possible has yet to be done on a grand scale, and is being proposed. A genteel David Keith of Harvard University in a recent interview (ABC Lateline, Nov 22), suggested that environmentally engineered adjustments were entirely feasible in a scientific sense..."

interesting article worth reading
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I posted a small entry summarizing the Atlantic Season if anyone is interested:

Link
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

You didn't present anything that "didn't jive with my point of view." You showed weather data to try and make a hidden claim about climate. You act like you've done some awesome thing, yet all it shows is that you don't understand which data is relevant to make conclusions about scientific data. Call me arrogant all you want. Be huffy puffy. Feel "insulted" because someone who understands that data showed that you do not. But at the end of the day, you don't understand the graph you posted because you do not know when to use its data nor the assumptions made in collecting it nor the times it is not appropriate to reach conclusions. And if you didn't make the graph, then why are you defending as if you did?


I don't feel insulted. You are, however, insulting to me and anyone else who dares to present something you don't like. The graphs origins are with Weatherbell. I understand it just fine. As for huffy and puffy, it's what you do best. Exactly when did I "defend" the graph. I said it speaks for itself.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Yep, that'd be the blob.

Watched that southeastern part of it start getting all caught up in that flow just to its east today, right toward my coast. Lots of wet.


That low pressure system northwest of Hawaii is expected to bring wet weather to Hawaii beginning early next week.

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Quoting Civicane49:


Yep, that'd be the blob.

Watched that southeastern part of it start getting all caught up in that flow just to its east today, right toward my coast. Lots of wet.
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Well, 91L's circulation looks closed. We can tell because it's exposed to view due to high wind shear.

This shear is forecast to weaken about 20 knots by Monday, which may allow for some gradual development up until mid-week when it becomes extratropical.

Storm remins me so much of Michael. Small low pressure that was initially exposed with no organized convection. After shear lowered it took off though.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
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Quoting Doppler22:
Hey, we had 2 storms in May why not one in December? :p

It is entirely possible that it happens with 91L. It would be something to use Valerie and maybe even William.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Hey, we had 2 storms in May why not one in December? :p
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Quoting Ameister12:
Wow! I have never seen such an intense tropical cyclone so close to the equator. Very cool.


You make a good point. Is this a world record for strongest cyclone below 5N?
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Who says we get Valerie in December?


If not out of this invest, then the next one. We should squeak in one more by the look of things.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Not my best, but it's okay, I still think you get the idea:

91L a threat to develop, Bopha a threat for destruction; End of Hurricane Season 2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
You know what would be amazing to see??

If Bopha had a twin spinning around 4.5S, 142.0E.

Two TCs in different hemispheres at different ends of their seasons but less than 10 degrees of latitude apart. That would be something to see.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Who says we get Valerie in December?
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Many of you are already in the month of doom.... like you Aussie
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Morale Building Song for dealing with Global Warming Deniers:

"Mind" by Talking Heads:

Link

The lyrics are perfect.
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New JTWC track:



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7607
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Quoting schwankmoe:
it's easy to mislead with graphs. do you have a link to information that actually describes this graph? or did you just find a graph and figure it made it look like 'it's gotten cooler since 1998' and posted it?


Based upon what he said, it seems clear that he just found this graph somewhere that someone else made, but didn't know what it meant. But it had a line that looked like CO2 and a line that looked like temperature, so it said what he wanted it to say.

It's like "yay, look what I found on Google! That'll show 'em!" ...and somehow that beats people spending 7 years in school becoming educated on this stuff, analyzing the data on their own, and keeping up to date with the experts actually doing the research. I didn't make the graph, I don't know what it represents or how to use it, but that guy that tried to tell me how... he's the arrogant one!
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I've had a great time blogging with everyone here this year, I just released my 2012 Atlantic season recap.

I hope you'll check it out.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7607
Quoting wxchaser97:

That I don't think Bopha is only 120-130mph.


you were saying....

Now Bopha IS 130 MPH just like i was estimating
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Good grief. The image speaks for itself. I'm not making any hidden claim. Furthermore, who voted you the arbitor of all things "scientific" on this blog? The arrogance of you and a few others on this blog is boundless. Look over the graph, comment if you want. The tone of your post is insulting, as usual. When presented with something that doesn't gibe with your point of view, you attack, vilify and belittle. I didn't make the graph. I just presented it in this forum to a deafening silence the 1st time. When I asked for a comment, I get this crap from you. I'm done, for now. I'll prolly get banned for this post. Oh well.

You didn't present anything that "didn't jive with my point of view." You showed weather data to try and make a hidden claim about climate. You act like you've done some awesome thing, yet all it shows is that you don't understand which data is relevant to make conclusions about scientific data. Call me arrogant all you want. Be huffy puffy. Feel "insulted" because someone who understands that data showed that you do not. But at the end of the day, you don't understand the graph you posted because you do not know when to use its data nor the assumptions made in collecting it nor the times it is not appropriate to reach conclusions. And if you didn't make the graph, then why are you defending as if you did?
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283. Skyepony (Mod)
BOPHA
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JTWC at 115kts.

WTPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 4.7N 142.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.7N 142.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 5.3N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 5.9N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 6.5N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 7.2N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 8.5N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 10.1N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 11.3N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 4.9N 141.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.//
NNNN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13995
Wow! I have never seen such an intense tropical cyclone so close to the equator. Very cool.
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An interesting vid on evolution

img src="">
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Quoting wxmod:
Smog in China today covering much of that country. MODIS
Don't buy China goods for Christmas, please!



this year 100% homemade, US, and Canada
Member Since: April 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 771
278. Skyepony (Mod)
Dvorak plot on Bopha..

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Van??? Valerie

Quoting KoritheMan:


Van? How about Valerie?

Van is 2013. Sorry about that :D
I've been busy with getting a new apartment and Thanksgiving, so I'm trying to catch up on everything :)
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777

Quoting winter123:
GW leads to warmer sea temperatures and more storms,

I don't think you can really make that claim. The Atlantic is the only basin that has consistently been above average. Other basins have not, and I would also attribute the high levels of Atlantic hurricane activity to increased usage of scatterometer and microwave data, which allows storms like Oscar and Patty to be named.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19890
Quoting winter123:
1. I think Global Warming is not affecting hurricanes as the experts expected. This year and the past few years show that while GW leads to warmer sea temperatures and more storms, it can also lead to sinking air and increased shear. This is causing larger storms with lower wind speeds.

2. I hope Bopha stays away from the northern Philippines. The company I work for has it's largest office there. It's already been affected by one storm this year with massively devastating flooding rain (I forget the name of the storm). Bopha reminds me in structure and size of late-season Caribbean storms such as Paloma.

3. 91L looks poised to become Subtropical storm Van.


4. I missed Tony. Off to wikipedia and plymouth state.


Van? How about Valerie?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19890
Quoting winter123:
1. I think Global Warming is not affecting hurricanes as the experts expected. This year and the past few years show that while GW leads to warmer sea temperatures and more storms, it can also lead to sinking air and increased shear. This is causing larger storms with lower wind speeds.

2. I hope Bopha stays away from the northern Philippines. The company I work for has it's largest office there. It's already been affected by one storm this year with massively devastating flooding rain (I forget the name of the storm). Bopha reminds me in structure and size of late-season Caribbean storms such as Paloma.

3. 91L looks poised to become Subtropical storm Van.


4. I missed Tony. Off to wikipedia and plymouth state.


Van??? Valerie
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1. I think Global Warming is not affecting hurricanes as the experts expected. This year and the past few years show that while GW leads to warmer sea temperatures and more storms, it can also lead to sinking air and increased shear. This is causing larger storms with lower wind speeds.

2. I hope Bopha stays away from the northern Philippines. The company I work for has it's largest office there. It's already been affected by one storm this year with massively devastating flooding rain (I forget the name of the storm). Bopha reminds me in structure and size of late-season Caribbean storms such as Paloma.

3. 91L looks poised to become Subtropical storm Van.


4. I missed Tony. Off to wikipedia and plymouth state.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
Bopha's eye has shrunk considerably today as it has intensified, it looks kind of annular on satellite but not nearly a big enough eye:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7607
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
mean looking eye




Is starting to gain latitude.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13995
THIS IS THE LAST REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE 2012
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE NEXT REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON JUNE 1 2013. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED IF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM
FORMS DURING THE OFF-SEASON.

Bet Avila, Roberts, Beven and all the other NHC people have having a bbq or some beer right now..


I don't know about Knabb though
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.